Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - STRONG ADVANCE/DECLINES

Episode Date: January 10, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is January 10, 2020. And yeah, you're welcome. We told you if you're going to play last night's game, the over. but it wasn't the way I thought it would occur. Boy, it was men against boys, the game. And luckily, Georgia was able to get that many points

because to get 61.5 over, that's what the number was. And when one team scores seven, you better be scoring, and that's exactly what happened. So you are welcome. And I must tell you, I thought Georgia was winning the game, I hated the 14 points because, you could be up by 20 with three minutes to go and the garbage touchdown. But it was just TCU shouldn't have been on the field.

Simple as that. Unbelievable, easy win. The holes were open. The defensive line for Georgia was in the backfield before they can even throw the ball. Wow. Wow. That's all I can say. Well done Georgia Bulldogs. What do they say? They earned it. Next, if I win the mega millions tonight, you will never hear from me again. Just so you know, it's like if you win by yourself, I think it's $350 million after taxes. And you could get 4% of it. on that money? That's $14 million a year. I'm gone. You'll find me on the island of Capri off of the Italian coast. By the way, I mean that. Anyway, good luck. I think it's $300 million to one odds. It's only $50 million to one odds to be hit by lightning. And just remember, you are getting paid out

by other losers, not by the lottery. Let's keep that in mind. It's the greatest con of all time brought to you by our governments. But I play when the numbers go up big. A little bit. Why not? We do markets here. And as you know, we guided you through the bare markets, big time.

And if you followed our lead, no pain. In fact, we caught counter-tren rallies during the bare market. I'm going to make a very, blunt statement at the outset for those that follow. Keep in mind, in just the last few days, the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, we're probing the bare market lows. The S&P stronger than the NASDAQ, NASDAQ, 100, the Dow has been the Grand Puba.

If we continue to get strong advance decline days, we are going higher. How long don't know, how far don't know, we deal with when things change. But early in the day today, markets were getting in trouble a little bit back and forth, but the advance declines were improving all day. And they ramped it into the close of a day that was kind of quiet today. Why? In the bare market, we were.

We're constantly telling you, reporting the news, advanced declines, 1 to 3 negative, 1,000 up 3,000 down. We were constantly telling you this breaking down, that breaking down, more names breaking down, new yearly lows expanding, constantly. We are letting you know, listen carefully. We measure our words carefully. the NASDAQ again is just off a bare market lows. It brings up, it's the caboose and in a big way. And we're not necessarily talking about the NASDAQ, though if the markets go higher, it'll go higher to a certain extent.

The S&P stronger than the NASDAQ, Dow stronger than the S&P. That's how it's been for a while. we're just letting you know if we continue to have great advanced decline days markets going higher we had a bad December we sat around for three weeks we had a very good Friday yesterday sucked in that it was really strong and reversed today it looked like it was getting in trouble again but advanced declines were not bad again and then slowly all day advanced declines went to the better and guess what they did in the last few minutes of the market. Boom, rallied them up.

So we are using complete opposite verbiage on average stocks right now. And it's the average stocks that usually lead the index is indices. Today, 28 up, 12 down on the New York, 30 up 12 down on the NASDAQ. That's awesome numbers. Yesterday on the reversal, they were awesome numbers all day. The reversal didn't help. They were still better. The two days before, the Friday was very strong advanced declines.

Last Wednesday, very strong advanced declines. And what does that do for the patterns? They improve them. That's what they do. There is only one thing that's going to happen to the indices here if we get more days like today. They're going higher. Now, you say, Gary, you're saying if we deal with the evidence in hands.

Markets improving here, evidence at hand. And we know there's an inflation number Thursday. Guess what? Yield spike today. Normally on a yield spike day, markets are down. Markets gave yields the big middle finger today. Yields were up over a stick to 3.621 and still ramped. now there is one issue the NASDAQ types they're a horror show but they will rally up also if this continues

and as you know we take it day to day and at just very simply right now the last three weeks have held after a nasty December a leg down and the market's attempting to get a bunch of that back best way I can put it and as always we'll be back tomorrow the headline and highlight we'll let everybody else tell you everybody else tell you

where the market's going to be at the end of the year we heard somebody say well in the first quarter we're going to do this in the second quarter we're going to do that they're so full of crap like they know

like they know we're trying to figure out we're going to cook for dinner tonight. We're just letting you know another very strong day in advanced declines. And guess what it did for the market at the end of the day? It juiced it. We wrote to our peeps early in the day. We wrote to everybody early in the day that the advanced declines are so good. And you know what happened? At 345, the Dow was 33, 627, ramped up another 90 points into the clothes. And you ended up with a good day. And as I said, don't fight it. This will show you we have no bias except to what we see. We are getting improvement here.

There's still no big leadership. But if we continue to improve, eventually will show up. And the best part about this is, without name and names, the great inverse indicator of the market who's been calling bottoms all the way down is now bearish on the market the last three days. And I'm thinking to myself, oh, my goodness gracious. We're not going to mention who. It's the wrong way Feldman from Gelegans Island. You ever watch Gelegans Island? There used to be a pilot wrong way Feldman.

He used to fly the wrong way. So just letting you know, very strong day advanced declines. Haven't yet scanned, but a few more things of note. This is the one only investors' edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated. radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement

planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 888-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit

for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. So, tomorrow will be another day. We have no idea what tomorrow brings. All we can tell you is, again, another very good day advanced declines.

And I have to tell you, last week, late in the week, chemical stocks started turning the corner. When we mean turning the corner, they've been in bare markets. Stop going down, stair steps up, break above another stair step. I have to tell you, steel stocks have broken above range. Yeah, we're mentioning steel. The price of copper has moved above range. And copper stocks have moved above range. Not leadership, repairing.

But this is what this is all about in markets. coming out of bare markets, hopefully you've got to have repairing. And the more that do it, the better. Steel and copper. You already know gold's been a little bit better, but I don't know if you call that a market thing. On the other end, we told you, areas were topping. Guess what?

United Health was down another four bucks today break in the 200 day. So there are other areas, but on the whole, markets perking up. and the more names that break above stair steps to the upside, the better. Again, that said, I am not so sure about a lot of these tech stocks. They can go higher, but man, oh man, I think a bunch of them could be the Cisco's and Intel's of 1999. We'll let you know if that changes. Okay, so let me explain again so you understand. during the bare market.

We were on this show saying, advance declines, 1,000 up 3,000 down. What does that do? It worsens the patterns for the many stocks and sectors. We just came off of NASDAQ bare market closing lows. We just came off of a bad December for three weeks backing and filling and backing and filling

where I must tell you, middle of last week, I'm thinking, I even set it on the, this show that I thought odds, little better odds were going to be, we're going to break to the downside. And then we got Friday. And then we got Wednesday. Very good advanced decline. Nothing Thursday, but Friday, very strong. Yesterday, bad reversal, but still advanced declines good. Today, very good. And in midday, I'm writing my peeps, just letting you know the indices aren't doing much, but if these advanced declines continue like this, indices are going to move.

And that's exactly what happened at the end of the day. You ready for this? Airlines. What? You're mentioning airlines? In the last five days, airlines dead on their arse. Five straight up days. Five straight strong up days.

Some making what we call U-Shapes, meaning that bad December sit around and straight back up. And by the way, even Southwest is moving up. Now I can mention airlines. Airlines. So while a few things have been rolling over. Oh, coal we told you was rolling over. Arch coal down five bucks today.

Symbol A.M.R. Which is alpha coal. Down four today. So the patterns are really playing out pretty damn well. But again, these days could be fleeting. But we deal with the evidence at hand. Quite the improvement today. And now we have a few days of this type of improvement.

Recovery improvement. Not big leadership breakout improvement. And why do I say that? One of the stronger names in the market symbol elf. ELF. You may have not heard of it. ELF beauty. That cracked wide open to the downside today.

Smith Microsystems, another show. strong name, cracked to the downside today. But the plethora of stocks, man, oh man, just strength. Green. And let's hope it continues. Friday was indeed a change of a complexion, notwithstanding yesterday. How long it lasts, how far it goes, we don't know. But man, real good advanced decline day today. And we don't want to get too bullish. Just want to take it a day at a time. We do recognize you've got to have big leadership that gets going and going and going. And right now, this is mostly all just recovery. There's a few new highs, not many.

And again, this does not include NASDAQ, big tech, and the like. Though if this continues, they'll rally some also. Do not forget, Friday, Bank America, BlackRock, Bank of New York, City Group, Delta Airlines, JP Morgan, United Health, Wells Fargo. Next week, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, United Airlines, Charles Schwab, Discovery Financial, American Airlines, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Silicon Valley Bank, Schlumberzee, State Street Bank, Comerica. The week after, it really picks up in numbers. Downames, 3M, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers, Verizon, in the transports, Union Pacific, Canadian National, Capital One Financial, GE, Danaherth, Boeing, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, Blackstone, IBM.

List goes on and on and on and on. Stay tuned. I believe the week after is when you get Amazon, Google, and Apple. I can promise you, some good stocks are going to turn bad and some bad stocks are going to turn good off of earnings or ports. But man, really good day today. on a bad bond market day, which really has the head scratching. On another note, Jay Powell opened his mouth today.

I applaud him today. He kept his mouth shut. And you know what else he said? The central bank is not going to deal with the climate change thing. Good on him. Good on him. What the hell they're asking him to do that anyhow? Fed will not be a climate policymaker.

good on him. Up next, what's going on with the world? Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one the only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar,

probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well, This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with

unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com. for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It's highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Okay. So we started to show, you are welcome. I got a bunch of emails from some of you.

You actually bet the over on the Georgia game. Just so you know, and I'm not making this up. I think we've hit 19 out of the last 23 Super Bowls. It may be 20. We used to do in the season, but it just got too much. I was visiting Phoenix one time, and somebody found my hotel. I was in and called me on a Saturday night in my hotel room. Who do you like for tomorrow?

I think to myself, holy crap. I mean, I'm pretty good at this, but man, oh man, you're going to, I'm just a voice on radio. But we were really good. And in the playoffs, we were really good. We'll probably do some playoffs this week. We were hitting 70, 80%. We do, like, the finals of NCAAs and things like that. We've had a very good record there.

And last night, we liked Georgia to win, but we weren't given 14 points. Little did we know it was a college team against the high school team. What a, you know, there are blowouts, but that was, wow. And we got lucky. We freely admit it. We got lucky when over 61.5 and one team gets seven. And of course, we started also by saying if we win the mega millions tonight, have a nice life. And you know what I'll do.

If you win 350, I think it would be about 325, 350 after tax. 150 goes right into a foundation and give it all away. We mentioned copper and steel and airlines and chemicals. all turning up. No, really. Don't argue. We got the best eyes in the business. I just can't wait until we get big leadership again.

You know, those are the ones that break out and go up 500% over a couple of years. And we don't have any of that. This is a recovery that we're seeing in different areas. And of course, things like Caterpillar don't even know we were in a bare market. If anything changes, we'll let you know. But man, pretty damn good as we go into earnings. And I have to repeat again, on a real crappy bond day. What else?

Well, the Republicans, let me tell you what they're proposing. A, number one, get rid of the IRS. Really? Just so you know none of this is going to happen, you know that. If they had the presidency in the Senate, then, you know, they could get things done. but they're putting this out there. They want to abolish the IRS and eliminate the income tax. They are looking to replace it with a national consumption tax,

which means you pay when you spend. We'll see. Ain't going to get done. And what they're doing with the IRS also is they're going to unfund the 87,000 IRS agents that Biden put in the place. and this is why I can't stand Biden more than anything. A.E's a Marxist. And remember, what a Marxist is, a control freak.

He's telling the country that we're all a bunch of tax cheats if you make more than $400,000 a year. Under $400,000, that you're good. What the hell does that mean? So if you work your ass off your whole life, you educate yourself, you start from scratch, sweat, toil, hours, sleepless nights, debt, failure, success, and then financially, you become the top 1 or 2% in the country. We're coming after you.

Joe Biden's an ass. You're supposed to applaud people who are successful and pay a lot of taxes and create wealth. and create jobs and a philanthropic. This ass running this country Oh, we're going to get 87,000 IRS people on you because we deem you cheats. And it's amazing the media didn't rip the stuffings out of him on that.

But they couldn't do that. Oh, by the way, a side note, it's now found out that Biden had classified intelligence documents also. But the media, who gave Trump a gargantuan colonoscopy with wide pipes on a daily basis, rightfully so on his classified material. You know what they're saying on Joe Biden?

Well, you know, you know, and it wasn't so bad, and he owned up to it. What? Remember, we blame the media as much as the politicians on everything. They just don't do their jobs. All right, so we're done on that. Paul Tudor Jones was on TV today. He is one of those people that I watch, one of the great hedge fund managers of all time. And it's so depressing what he had to talk about today. They were asking about the Fed. And he said something to the effect of, as long as Jay Powell does not move to destroy the economy. with too much higher rates. And I'm just thinking to myself, what's my biggest complaint? I use three words, one man's whims.

One man's whims can destroy the economy, which begs the question, how did we get here? And when is anybody going to wake up? When is anybody going to wake up? that Jay Powell and these central banks are our opponents. They are the enemy. They have injected themselves into free markets in ways unimaginable, which distorted everything,

and caused such strife, and has enabled massive inflation, debt and deficits beyond the beyond. and maybe the markets go higher now. Hey, advance the client's good. But there's going to be an outcome of all this. There's going to be an outcome. In the year 2000, our federal spending was $1.8 trillion. It's going to be $6 trillion this year.

That's our money going to them to do what. Oh, it has to go to Social Security. They never prepared for Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid and the demographics. of, oh, people going to live longer, they screwed it all up. And they used debt and deficits. And J. Powell covers it all up, enables it all. So I'm thinking of myself, Paul Tudor Jones, damn it.

And this guy knows what he's talking about. We're still at the point where one man in his whims really can move the ship around. He had the ability to print up to $9 trillion. bucks. And look what happened. Bubbles up the wazoo that have all crashed. Okay, on that Serenity now, but Paul Tudor Jones even said what we're just completely worried about. How did we ever get to the point where one man in his whims with the ability to print up to $9 trillion that distorted everything? And the only reason why we're even in shape of any form is because of us, not because of them.

They're the headwind. They're the enemy. They're the opponent. It is us that go to work every day to do better for ourselves and our families and they're destroying us, the central banks and these politicians. It never ends.

It never ends. And again, there's going to be an outcome eventually. We're going to go to $40 trillion of debt. That's $40 trillion spent more than they were supposed to. $50 trillion. and somewhere along the line, the world's going to account for it. Up next, the numbers. Got to do the market wrap.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreaker. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culpa.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Today's Market Wrap, brought to you by Investment Dash Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. The indexes not the biggest of moves. Dowp 186, S&P 27, NASDAQ 106, NASDAQ 197, SOX 34, transports 37.

But a lot of it happened in the last 15 minutes. But the advance declines three-to-one positive. That's huge. and those that did not listen during the bare market, every day was the opposite of that. And it was easy for us to tell you, bare market, bear market, bare market. But advanced declines like this,

which we now had three out of the last five days, that only improves the internals of the market and conditions. And it happened again, I have to repeat, on a day where they trashed the bond market today. Yields are up a stick. So stay tuned. hopeful we don't like bear markets we like bull markets now I want to repeat something there still know what we call umph leadership but if this continues eventually it shows up

and we don't care why and we know there's the boo birds out there we know there's the perma bears out there and the great inverse uh the inverse of everything not going to mention who but all of a sudden after calling bottoms all bear market all the sudden he's parish, which is good news. We're very good at reading underlying weakness of strength. And I must tell you, the internals, the last week, have the best I've seen in a long while. And we're off the lows from October, much better than them. Now, I have to repeat again, not so sure it's going to contain all the NASDAX, though they will move higher. And we say that because it's just not feeling it yet.

that can change that can change but when I look at the charts of Apple and Amazon and Amazon's been improving a little bit in the last week the only reason they rally up is because they got trash so much but in the case of areas we mentioned earlier like the steel and the chemicals the copper

and things like that that's real turning corners and the more that do that I got news for you. They're not going to be able to sell the market down. Now that said also, we have highlighted for certain areas that had topped out in the last week or so, and guess what?

They've all topped out, especially these managed care stocks. And the big biotech, though they bounced a little bit today. I mean, after Regeneron dropped 60 bucks yesterday, they're going to bounce it today. So stay tuned. day by day. It's all we want to do. Day by day. And if at any point in time I say to you on this show, just letting you know, big leadership, that's going to be a queue.

Got a few new highs. We've mentioned them. But kind of sort of the turtles, the tortoise, not the hairs. Have you noticed something? We don't have a bias. except for what the market and the evidence it gives. We'll see if we can get another repeat performance tomorrow. I believe the inflation numbers Thursday. But we'll see.

Just remember, we called the top of inflation in June and July on the show and on TV. And amazingly, nobody acknowledges it. We don't know why not. I guess there's so many people on TV. What could you do? We saw it in June and July. It started with the oil prices. and then the rest of the commodities.

Now everybody's acknowledging inflation's better. I have news for you, though. It better continue to be better. You don't want inflation skyrocketing from these higher levels. That would be troublesome. And I have to tell you, I was in Publix last night. The price to pay for stuff is unbelievably high. average families man smoked i can't believe the price i am paying for some things at the supermarket

stunning as inflation comes down so stay tuned gold decent day today solar's bounce first solar is an outlier in the solar stocks which we told you'd also top down up 11 today didn't see any news not so sure I want to buy the only really strong stock in a group but definitely strength Lulu Lemon down big yesterday up 10 today somewhat ignoring their bad news so-called Chinese stocks another decent day today we still don't trust that government they're communists their control frames but they're being nicer for the second you scan tonight, start scanning steel and chemicals. Yeah, I know, boring. We're telling

you what we're finding. And to be very repetitive, a ton of earnings to be reported. And for us, it will not be the news. It will not be the guidance. We're not going to give a, you know what they say. We're going to care about how the markets react. And then we'll take a look at what they said. We don't trust most of them anyhow in the things they say. They're always positive. That said, we'll be on with Charles Payne tomorrow 2 p.m. hour, Fox Business. Same time tomorrow for this show.

And until then, you have a great evening, drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. And until tomorrow, always appreciate.

that anybody would listen to anything we have to say. Have a good night, everybody. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details.