Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Swing and a miss [01.04.2024]
Episode Date: January 4, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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store we can't wait to meet you store hours vary by location investors edge with gary coltbaum
straight talk about you and your money now from the biz talk studios here is gary cult bomb and welcome once again
to investors edge i'm gary coltbaum your host day thanks of being with us today glad you're here ladies and
gentlemen happy that you are listening it is uh january 4th 2024 and amazingly when i
wrote out a check today, yes, I still write out checks. I put 2024. It usually takes me three weeks.
Usually I'm still doing 23. That was my big part of today. Ladies and gentlemen,
this is serious talk on you and things that affect you, but things you can also control.
we start off on the markets
you can actually control what you do
we do the economy and jobs
employment the debt and deficits
the absolute unadulterated
in your face
without a care in the world by them
corruption from all of the politicians
on both sides of the aisle
and anything else that matters to you
and if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on Twitter, you probably should because we're pretty darn good at what we do.
And if you email us, all you got to do is be nice.
It's pretty simple.
Nice.
Respectful.
That's all one could ever ask.
That's it.
Not like the one that I got a couple of days ago about I like your show, but you talk about the Jews too much.
Gee, the Jews!
I love people.
I love people.
That's so sweet.
Anyway, when we say to you, we think we have
the best eyes in the business.
We're not kidding.
When we say to you, we don't think there's anybody who puts more time into this than we do.
We're not kidding.
Of course, we don't know what anybody else does.
When we say to you, we have studied bull and bear markets, hundreds, if not thousands of hours.
We're not kidding.
when we tell you that I'm sitting here in my office right now, and to my left there are a few boxes,
and in those boxes are folders, and in those folders are printed out charts from different times during the many years.
We go back decades where we do studies and we look at bull and bare markets and we will print things out.
Our software allows us to go back as long as the state.
stock price, the symbol's still around.
So if I want to get a hold of bare markets with rallies into the 50-day failing, I just pull out
that folder and I go one after the other.
And then I look at what the markets do and am I asking myself, am I seeing that or am I not?
And then I take out the bull markets.
Am I seeing that or am I not?
And the reason is because the characteristics of bull and bear markets show up not perfectly the same way, but pretty darn good.
Close.
And it's by no accident.
We don't have to go back to 21 or 20 or 19 or 15.
We just have to go back to July when we told you markets had topped.
And throughout all of July to the end of October, we would tell you that 80% in the market was in downtrends, some vicious downtrends.
that didn't come by happenstance it's not like we go on the golf course every day and then come back and say yeah the market did this or did that we're actually looking at a photo album for familiar faces and it's not by accident that we were also at the time bearish on bonds bullish on yields as they went up and the dollar as it went up and then something happened
that even we were surprised about, not that on November 1st we came on the show and said,
things may have changed.
And we put out the report, things changed with a question mark.
And on that day was one of the major characteristics of a potential turn in the market.
But we had no idea how strong a two months we'd have because we had no idea yields would crash.
And as you know, we're a big believer in correlations until they don't work anymore.
I remember many decades ago, it was the GM indicator.
In the end of the 90s, you had to watch AOL and a few others.
And it used to be the financials that mattered most to be, but then semiconductors took over.
After, oh, wait, when the financials, you know, they were never indicted for all the criminal activity they did.
So we rallied up and rallied up, and we did in a way we're stunning gaps to the upside
four, five hundred doubt points.
Why?
Because yields crashed on a better inflation number, whatever the reason, which took us,
and not by accident to the last week of the year.
Not by accident again.
we told you. Hey, just letting you know, sentiment is big extreme bullish. And of course, sentiment is a
contrary indicator. Too many bulls, not good for the market, too many bears, good for the market.
Why? Because too many bulls means everybody already bought too many bears. Everybody's already
sold. That's how it works. But you only deal with that when it goes to real extremes, and we got
real extremes towards the end of December, but sentiment is not price. Price matters more,
which took us to the Wednesday and Thursday before the end of the year where we got on the show
and said, just want to let you know, things are getting a little mushy. And I know that's a little
amateurish word, but we would just try and explain to you that just letting you know a few things
starting to roll over a little bit, a few things starting to stall, not the end of the
the world. The fact that the matter is, after such a move, you're going to get that.
And then came Friday, the last day of the year, bad day for the NASDAQ, where we just came on
and said, happy new year, and things got musher. And we also told you, we don't know what January
is going to bring in. We really don't. But William O'Neill once said to me at lunch,
at one of his big workshops because they used to hog his time.
January is a, he's just like this.
Gary, January can be a big pain in the, you know what.
Because whipsawing institutions, positioning themselves,
and all that fun stuff.
That said, we came into the year just thinking things were a little bit mushy.
Simple as that.
And then came Tuesday, Wednesday, and today.
And all we can tell you is things got even more mushy today, even though the Dow finished
up a whopping 10 points.
And what we've told you the last couple of days and did in our webcasts a ton of tech, a ton of
it put in what we call near term tops.
What does that mean?
The stair steps changed.
Instead of stair steps up, they started with stair step down, failed breakouts, giving up.
giving up some support levels
and did it
in what we call en masse
a ton of them
a ton of them
is that the death knell
notice we said short term
if we ever say to you more of intermediate term
then look out
and to us intermediate term
is breaking the big 50 day moving average
a lot of these names just broke the
21 day which means they were that strong
so
bad Tuesday, bad Wednesday, more deterioration.
As we do our scans, fewer and fewer stocks that we even have to pay attention to
because they move from one screen to the next, because they break, and then today.
Do you remember what we tell you about daily activity in the market?
Bad opens and good closes.
Or flat opens and good closes.
or maybe down opens and good closes.
What the heck does that mean?
That's up next.
Lots of markets today.
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One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon.
She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece.
I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say.
And she replies with a low, listen.
So we sat there, listening.
That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full.
Hershey's.
It's your happy place.
It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
So, going back to what we tell you, characteristics of bull and bear markets,
there's actually characteristics that we go by during the day.
and that is
bullish phases usually have
a little bit down opens, flat opens,
maybe up a little, and good closes.
It's just how it works.
Not so good phases is where
you open up strong
and you finish down
or finish on the low of the day.
So we've had this little change of complexion,
not the end of the world,
I will tell you this, and we said to this to you this whole week,
there has been money flows into defensive areas,
food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products,
medicals, managed care, biotech, big biotech, big banks.
And right now also, coal and shippers are strong
and the shipping is more news related with what's going on
with the Red Sea and the Houthi rebels.
You can go read about it.
But let me just report to you today.
The Dow finished up only 10 points today.
You got that?
It was up 286 points at 1130.
That's all.
The NASDAQ today, remember what we've told you,
we're more worried about the NASDAQ in tech than anything else right now.
Near term, the NASDAQ today never really got going.
at one time today it was up I don't even think 40 points so it was still underperforming the Dow and as we've
told you there's something going on with the NASDAQ right now and I really believe it just the
matter of it was just up ridiculous last year narrowly what do we mean by narrowly a select few
names a big part of it so the NASDAQ which was up 40 points no biggie finished down 82
and pretty much finished at the lows of the day or near the lows.
And same with the down.
So just letting you know today, that is the definition of distribution,
institutions selling stock into hot opens.
And just the characteristic of a market that's a little bit on defense.
And it's not by accident that the money flows are going into defense names.
simple as that where this stops i have no clue when it stops i have no clue
does it hit a wall on the downside tomorrow and turn up i don't know we deal with all the
information at hand right now and all we can tell you is that nasdaq right now and technology
is under pressure few and fewer fewer names are now working and what i mean that
Those of you that chart things, when you have a chance, I'm just going to give a name.
Manhattan Associates, M-A-N-H, go look at it and you will see a stock that broke out, was in an up trend, and is now broken down, and is now off the playing field, meaning it's lost the up.
and you know how we describe for you if there's only 100 stocks in the market, up trends,
downtrends, down trends, and we're just letting you know you're just losing more than a few.
And I don't call them death knells just yet.
A few have, but not a ton.
The 50-day moving average is what really Apple has broken the 50-day moving average.
Now, number one, we owned it going into last week and we sold it early in the week.
Why?
We saw what was going on.
Saved a bunch of cake.
And now it's below the 50 day.
And all that means for us, here's one of the other rules of what we do.
And it's the physicality of the market.
Rules.
You have no chance of an uptrend if you're below the 50 day, move an average.
That's all.
So I'm not going to own it.
Above the 50 day, you have the possibility of an uptrend.
You can be above the 50 day and just sit around for a bunch and do nothing.
You can be below the 50 day and sit around and do nothing, but you have no chance.
The physicality of the market is you must be above that level to have any chance.
So Apple's done for right now.
And of course, if it breaks the 200-day moving average, that's bigger.
long-term stuff and that's at 180 just a couple of bucks below that's bigger trouble
apple being 7% of the s and i think what about his ninth was maybe 11% of nasdaq 100 matters
and now amazon here's another stock that we just sold and we don't want to sell these stocks
but amazon was showing it was rolling over also for us so we said see ya the stock was down four bucks today
took out the 21 day easily and is now sitting on the 50 day and is rolled over and also took out and failed the recent break above range and now better hold in here oh amazon is number two in the s and p no three in the s and p and two on the nazdak 100 we don't know now amazon and apple now we had a couple of transfers in that i got a handle and then we go to the next and we go to the next and we go to the next
then we go to the next and if there's more and more it's trouble that's how we do things so we're
just letting you know today not a good finish a strong open bad clothes and guess what also happened
oh that direct correlation the 10 year yield closed up 0.84 to 3.991 do you know where the trend
line is the 21 day that's been dropping like a rock
3.999.
If the 10-year yield continues higher,
one would suggest maybe some headwinds.
Why? That direct correlation.
End of the world? Not necessarily.
Just a correction could be.
But I can tell you, in tech land,
some corrections can be pretty damn nasty.
And I can tell you,
we've already seen in just a week double-digit corrections in a bunch of names.
So we'd just let you know the oils remain crappy.
We were actually thinking coming in today, boy, the big oil was acting better,
opened up hot, sold off badly as oil prices reversed down, nothing to do there.
So there are areas we are avoiding.
But without a doubt, markets been buying in the defensive area.
areas, which something to think about. Why? We think the market has ears. We think the market has
eyes. And if the market's buying up recession-resistant areas and selling off consumer
discretionary areas, what is the market saying about the economy? That's Major League
in Debt. Just some food for thought, ladies and gentlemen. We got it all for you. I'm Gary. This is the
and only investors edge.
Every day, the headlines shift, but the uncertainty never seems to fade.
From rising geopolitical tensions to record U.S. debt and ongoing debates about inflation
and money printing, Americans are watching economic forces that feel far beyond their control,
and for many, that instability is showing up in retirement accounts, personal savings,
and long-term financial plans.
More people are taking a closer look at options that don't depend on Wall Street.
Physical gold and silver have been used for generations as real, tangible assets during
unpredictable moments like these. They're not about replacing existing investments. They're about
adding a layer of diversification that has historically helped provide balance during volatile periods.
Preserve gold focuses on education, giving everyday American straightforward information about
how precious metals can fit into a retirement strategy, including options to hold them inside an IRA.
To get your free wealth protection guide, text iHeart 2-505. And with a qualified purchase,
you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or self-fell.
Text IHeart to 50505 today.
Success starts with your drive,
and American Public University is here to fuel it.
With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs,
APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.
Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh,
or pursuing a lifelong passion,
our programs are designed for people who never stop.
You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.
Learn more at APU.
One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon.
She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece.
I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say.
And she replies with a low, listen.
So we sat there, listening.
That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full.
Hershey's
It's your happy place
You're listening to
America is talking
Investors Edge
He's got to be pleased with that
The crowd is just on his feet here
He's a Cinderella boy
With Gary Colbomb
It comes highly recommended
You're gonna feel better if you talk to him
And welcome once again to Investors Edge
So the Dow was only up 10 after being up almost 300
The S&P was down 16
NASDAQ down 81, NASDAQ 100 down 86
transport's only down six but they got trashed yesterday advanced declines weren't so bad
but 10 year yield up oil prices down and just more mush just more mush and I've already
did my big scans and stuff and here's something else I want to bring up anybody
here of a stock called Mobile Eye just letting you know this is one of those driving
technology companies, autonomous driving technology. Well, the stock was down 25% today to 30 bucks.
And just letting you know, just letting you know, remember I've been telling you about
Nvidia and how is this stock not 700 bucks with those numbers? And I'm wondering whether
somebody or the market knows there's over-ordering out there, which is,
Sometimes happens often in the semiconductor business, and here's why.
Here's you got Nvidia, you got this whole AI thing.
And what ends up happening, these companies that need chips jump all over each other to get as much chips as possible because they think,
oh, there's going to be a crapload of demand on this.
So they order, and they end up ordering too much.
And what happens if everybody orders too much?
Well, for now the numbers are gargantuan.
What happens down the road when they don't need to order anymore because they ordered too much?
Ooh, there's your ledge.
So now, Mobilai order cutbacks because of over-ordering.
And it affected other stocks in the semiconductor group like, let's see, analog devices, NXP semiconductor,
and a few others in the semis had a rough day.
So just letting you know, that is something I'm definitively watching.
It's happened quite a few times before in semiconductor land
And as you know
I put a lot of weight
On semiconductor stocks now
Obviously immobilize is not the most important
Ever
But we are watching NVIDIA
Which still can't get above that five
Man if that
I'm going to give a blanket statement
If NVIDE breaks above 506
We're going to own a bunch
With stops under
485. Just letting you know. Right now it's just dead. Amazingly so. Not doing much. We segue.
Hey, so I'm sure you all know because I wind and complain like a little baby that for over three months, I had the worst back spasms, just came out of nowhere and went to a surgeon doctor. I wasn't going for surgery, but I knew.
how brilliant he was and he basically said you don't have nerve damage you don't have
disd damage you have spasms and I was like wait a minute a back spasm is going to make me cry
oh heck yeah he said and he used a different word by the way I said back spasins going to let me just
drop to my knees in pain oh heck yeah I had no idea so I ended up with a newfound respect
And as you know, I'm very much a be in shape guy.
Before that, and for four months I couldn't do squat.
Three months, and then I waited another month just in case.
But I'm back on it, and the great news is at a higher age, it's working.
I just want to let each and every one of you know because I'm watching.
I guess they have these diet things now, OZempe,
and all that, and it looks like it's working.
But just remember when it's all in said and done, if you stop, you're going back to where you came from
because of your habits, just so you know.
That's how it works.
That's why diets, unless you really stick, don't work that great.
Let me give you the secret to being ripped and losing all that, especially you men.
There's only one secret.
Think of, and I'm going to depress the hell out of you.
by giving you the secret.
20. Think of 20.
Think of 20 steps.
Notice we segue.
20 steps walking equals one calorie.
That's all.
So when you go by the double whopper at Burger King
with the onion rings and the Coke
and it's 1,500 calories, probably, I'm just guessing,
20 steps is one calorie.
What's 20 times 1500s? 30,000 steps to work that off. That's how tough things are. But we're just letting you know. 70,000 steps will be a pound. And besides, if you use calorie deficient days, you know, you add up how much you're burning, just doing nothing. And if let's say it's 20,
thousand calories you only eat in 1,200, 800 calories right there, you're in shape there.
So we're just letting you know it ain't easy. And as you get older, it gets tougher.
Metabolism slows down. So just letting you know. Today already, it's 427. I did seven sets of
triceps and I'm already on 11,000 steps, either walking flat or on my incline trainer where,
by the way, if you go on a 15 incline, 10 incline, you're burning calories a lot better than going
flat.
So we're just letting you know for your New Year's resolution because I'm watching all kinds
of stuff out there about what you should do, and I'm just letting you know it's very simple.
20 steps is one calorie.
That's all.
and the more steps you have, the better you're going to be.
But if you knock down 5,000 calories a day, not much I can do to help you.
It's your job to really count them.
That's how you get it done.
Forget all the other noise.
Think 20.
This has been your host, Gary Kalbaum, your athletic trainer, that speaks.
the truth 20 and I have my little step monitor on my phone I've already done 10,142
steps today 4.6 miles 492 calories 22 floors also by the way and that's on
top of the fact I'll be calorie deficient today and I'll probably throw a few 5,000
more on the inclined trainer tonight. Oh, and I have to do them back. I did triceps this morning.
I'll do back tonight. Pull downs. And of course, that helps too. Strength. So just let you know,
I wanted to do that segment because, man, oh man, I know how people think every year.
Oh, I'm going to, this year, I'm just letting you know I don't care when anybody else tells you.
think 20 every 20 steps is a calorie 700,000 steps is 10 pounds on top of anything else you do 700,000 steps yes by the way my biggest day ever of steps I once did 35,000 steps walking in Rome that's the biggest day I've ever had and Rome you can just walk forever I can tell you that Rome Italy that is not Rome
Georgia. Okay. Well, where do we go from here? Wish I had better news entering the year,
but I really don't. And remember, everything we do is based on opportunity for stocks to go
higher. And I am letting you know that for many more stocks, the opportunity to go higher has now
been taken away. That can change no matter how bad the technical condition is. Only one thing.
A big news event or earnings. And earnings come out and drove starting in about two weeks.
And by the way, it starts out with the big banks, which by the way are quite on the strong side here.
And of course, as you know, they're very good bookies. Are big banks. If I had to do it all over
again. Do you know when I start in the business, I worked at the NCNB building in Tampa, Florida.
And I think it was then bought out by Barnett Banks, or was it the other way around?
And then buy out after buy out after buy out after buy out. I don't know if you know this.
There's like 70% less banks today than when they were back then.
Up next, whatever else.
This is the one only investor's edge.
With record U.S. debt, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and constant market swings, many people are rethinking how to protect their savings.
Physical gold and silver have been used for generations during uncertain times to diversify, not replace, traditional investments.
Preserve gold helps Americans understand these options.
Text iHeart to 50505.05 to get your free wealth protection.
guide and explore how precious metals may fit into your retirement planning.
Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable
tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence
to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,
our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.
Learn more at APU. APU. APUS.edu.edu.
One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon.
She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece.
I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say.
And she replies with a low,
Shh.
Listen.
So we sat there.
Listening.
That was the first time I learned that quiet.
it can feel full.
Hershey's.
It's your happy place.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Investers Edge.
With Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Thanks for being with us today.
Not much.
You know how when the Rush Ukraine thing was the biggest news and then all of a
sudden it drifted away?
Guess what's happening with Israel?
right now. The news has less front and center right now, but the story goes that they're still in there.
They've pulled some soldiers back. They have taken out a lot of terrorists, captured a lot,
took out some heads of the terrorism group, and now the terrorists are threatening back.
There's a lot going on. I don't know if you saw in Iran. It looks like the bad, the bad
guy struck the bad guys in Iran
at a, I guess
for that Soleimani guy
that was taken
out four years ago. There's a lot
of crap going on in the Middle East, but I
just want to let you know a couple of things when you
see all this.
Most
Arab nations
are rooting.
They're rooting for Israel.
They can't say it out loud,
but they are.
many Arab nations over the last couple of decades saw what Israel did turn this sliver of land in the Middle East with bad people on all sides in one side with the sea and turned it into this magnificent place for people and business and just amazing growth there.
you would think it's like New York City there.
And they did it fending off missiles.
I told you the first time I was there, there were missiles over my head.
I'm like, what the hell is going on here?
There were missiles taken out over my head the first time I was in Israel.
And guess what's these other Arab nations?
You got, man, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Dubai.
Dubai.
And I can go on and on.
turn this they really want to just they're still run by you know iron hands as they say but man oh man
they want they want to grow and they want to be known for for good in business and attract capital
and give you get my point the they know the scum are the terrorists they know that but they can't
say it out loud. But there's still Iran and some other bad out there, and the bad was taken out the
bad today, or yesterday. It's quite the quiet. And of course here, these morons protesting, again,
they're not protesting for the Palestinian people. They're protesting against the Jews,
and it's very simple because they don't protest about anything else going on out there. And all of a
sudden the day that Israel was attacked, they would jump it on Israel so they can all go screw
themselves every single one of them. They can kiss mine. I tell it straight to their face.
I give no quarter to that. And of course, you've been reading about the president of Harvard's
now blaming racism against her, even though she showed to be the big racist. It's just
unfortunate that here in the great United States of America, these race baiters and these
racist themselves, just remember, they can come all shapes and sizes. Racism. It comes from
anywhere. I just saw an imam was murdered in New Jersey. We're going to find out who did that.
And we're going to find out that was a hate crime. And whoever did it should be indicted,
found guilty and gone to jail for the rest of their freaking life.
But it's a shame that our institutions of higher learning.
And look what the hell is going on here.
And one of them still running the show.
And the two that resigned are still in faculty at these places.
And just remember what I told you.
And I really didn't hear anybody else say this.
And of course, I did because I'm Mr. Logic.
When they were in front of Congress and they were dopes,
And they were asked a simple question and they couldn't answer a simple question about the murder of Jews.
The murder of Jews.
They couldn't even say they were against it.
They just used legal lingo.
But it's not what they said.
It's how they said it.
There was no passion for their Jewish students.
There was no passion about death.
There was no passion that their students were actually sending emails and letters to them
that we're afraid to go to our class, that were being stopped.
The head of the Harvard Review, whatever, was getting in the face of a couple of Jews
and nothing happened to that person.
I would have kicked his ass.
It's who they are, not what they said.
They scripted everything and they scripted bad.
There was no emotion, no nothing.
But if somebody was pissed off and said they were victim of somebody not using a pronoun, they would have been having fits.
And that's what we mean by racism, bigotry, anti-Semitism.
Simple as that.
And they deserve to be out.
And unfortunately, Vizzi Yutz is going to be making $900,000 a year, staying in faculty, even though.
even though she's a miserable failure.
We'll leave it at that.
That part's over.
There's one leftover.
We'll see how it plays out.
We'll keep you a prize.
We'll keep you on top.
Why?
Because this and all said and done is going to matter big time.
You have the worst foreign policy president in history running the joint right now.
Nobody even knows where the guy is.
He's not even at front and center.
We'll stay on top of it.
We're heading into the election year.
Well, we're in the election year.
There's another debate.
I think it's only Haley and DeSantis now.
I don't think anybody else made it.
Trump has lapped them over and over.
I was wrong.
I thought Haley was going to get closer, and I just don't think it's going to happen.
And it looks like most of the congressional caucus, Republican caucus, has back Trump now.
So only he can take himself out, or we'll see what happens with this.
court cases. All right, wish I had better news for you. Tomorrow, I should be on with Neil Cavuto,
noon hour, Fox Business Network, check that out. You'll have a great evening drive carefully when you
get home to you like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your
children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Have a great one, everybody.
Peace out all. Thanks for joining. Bye, bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes
or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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