Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Tariff bye bye [05.12.2025]

Episode Date: May 12, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is the 12th of May, 2025. Hope you having a good day. a good weekend. O lots to cover. We are going to do the genesis of tariffs, taxes, and hopefully never have to say it again. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow a section, should, in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects

you. We do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, tariffs. And we had said to you on this show, we were never going to use the word tariff again. And then I kept saying taxes and I kept getting questions, what do you mean by that? Okay. Anyway. So we'll say tariff slash taxes if it's okay with you. Where do we start? Well, in case you do not know, the market opened up a thousand some odd points today.

In case you did not know. Why? Well, over the weekend, the Chinese trade people and the United States trained people came to some sort of something to where instead of us, with the tariff on Chinese imports at 145%, went down to 30%. And instead of China, at 125%, we're down to 10%. that's what happened so price for the indices are now above the crash and actually decently above the crash in case you did not know listen to me carefully because we're going to tell you as it is without a gender ulterior motive or bias remember that so going into April 3rd

markets were weak we would come on the show and tell you how the semiconductors the transports the home builders the retail

and just so many other areas, bearish mode. And we didn't give any reasons why we just said we were in bearish modes and you had to avoid all these areas. On top of that, the big tech, bearish mode. We were telling you to avoid all those big names going into April 3rd, which would have been a Thursday. In the weeks leading up to April 3rd, the White House was all over the map. All over the map. In what?

With what? Well, there wasn't a day that went by where they were not discussing tariffs, taxes. And before I continue, let me be clear. A tariff on something that comes into this country is paid by the buyer of that product to our treasury. And at that point in time, decides to not bring in that product anymore or to put it on the consumer or try to deal with where that product's coming from. Hey, we need to discuss this. Help us out. So up until that point, there were different numbers being thrown out, and I think part of the weakness was probably that. But we never really discussed it that much, except we would say they did this, they did that.

Leading up to Wednesday, and what happened was they had a Rose Garden thing, and they were given ovations and clapping, and the president came out with this whole poster. tariffing everybody around the world. And when I say everybody around the world, I guess a little bit of exaggeration there, but it was pretty much everybody around the world. In fact, on that list were countries that weren't countries. On that list were countries we have a surplus on. The markets crashed the next two days.

Thursday and Friday, the markets crashed. I believe they dropped 10% in two days. That's the big indices. And of course, they came out and amazingly said, sometimes you've got to take your medicine. Don't think in the short run, think of the long run. And we're telling you there's just no way they can keep these tariffs on. Taxes.

Why? It was simple. It was easy logic for us to say to you, everybody's going out of business. They're going to shut things down. Things are not going to get delivered. The economy is going to head into the crapper, and the markets are going to drop even more.

We told you that. And it wasn't hard to figure out. We were already hearing Amazon stopped some shipments, auto company stop shipments, and all you've got to ask yourself is, how do I prepare as a business? So Thursday and Friday, we crashed. And over the weekend, they were trying to put a brave face, but leave no doubt, and we were telling everybody, they were crapping in their pants at the White House all weekend.

No doubt. Why? Midterm elections. Poll numbers. This and the other thing. Politicians don't want bad poll numbers. So on Monday, they were going to do a pause of that whole thing they did Wednesday. And it got leaked.

Once it leaked, we rallied up 2,000 Dow points in a half hour. But then they disavowed it, the White House. And I believe my guess, and it's a good guess, they disavowed it because they didn't like the leak. On Wednesday, after going up 2,000 points and down 2,000 points, on the Wednesday, they did the pause. And when we use the word pause, they use the word pause for 90 days, that thing's gone. And the market rallied up. But then, 145% China. 145% China.

And then the markets are adding up. They're basically adding up how much stuff we get from China and who gets affected. And what do they do? During that time, they started exempting exemptions. Apple got exempted. Auto parts got exempted. Everything was getting exempted. And we rallied up.

All the important stuff, but there was still 145%. Imagine if you're some business. And let's say you do $10 million in business. But now, you buy $10 million. worth of stuff from China. You're now going to pay 145% more. 2.45 million. You're out of business. 24-5 with 10 million. You're out of business. You're gone. Your history. You're out of here. No chance. What gets announced? Oh, we're meeting with China. And markets rallied. And then 145 down to 30.

while saying China caved into us. Now, we really don't care who's what. But I want to make sure, just in case this happens again, you recognize that the markets forced this White House to turn tail because they were crashing. And their hope is, and they're getting it, that everybody forgets it as the markets rally up as they say, told you so. You say, told you so.

Forget that the markets were crashing because of our economic policy. Told you so. Forget that they have completely whitewashed and reversed that economic policy that crashed the markets. The only thing that matters, markets are going up and we told you so. Up next, we'll finish off the genesis of, and then we'll talk where we are. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 888422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colbaum Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, so, we told you on that Thursday and Friday while the market's crashing, it was the worst economic policy we have pretty much ever seen in our lifetime. And we've had some bad ones. What it was was a massive tax hike on us. and markets knew it. Our stock market was crumbling. Our dollar was crumbling.

They were selling off our bonds. That's how they were forced to do otherwise, leading to what just happened. Now, all this talk, well, China's having problems too, and they needed to do it. They're right. China also was being affected. but less so. Don't believe the people that say more so. Less so.

Go look at the numbers. So my get, let me backtrack one more time because we have to remember this. It's mui importante that we remember this. The White House had no choice. Zero choice. It was a major tax hike that would have crushed the economy.

So first the pause, and then, oops, China's still out there. And we have to do something about that, thus this weekend. And if I'm to give them credit for this whole episode, it's that they did recognize the dire straits their economic policy

would have put us in. Simple as that. We'll give them a credit. We'll give them some credit for pivoting. But they were forced to pivot. And we're saying that just in case they decide to get stupid again. So the Dow today finished up 1160 points. The Dow gapped up today.

It was 42-345. then in the last few minutes finished a little bit better. So it really gapped up about 1,100 points. The S&P 500 gapped up to 5828, closed at 5844. The NASDAQ gapped up to 18674, closed at 18708. And by the way, okay, yeah, we'll give it that. And what were the areas we had told you to completely avoid until April 22nd when we got that confirmation day? Well, it was the transports.

You remember the transports, right? The transports today off of this up 986, 979.7%. Well, why would the transports be up like that? will they transport everything there was a standstill going on this will get rid of the standstill forced to get rid of the standstill

what else moved you ready for this you remember the semis oh by the way the transports rammed right above the it was the only holdout below the 50 day moving average finished above and really had a strong move. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, that was another one.

That was up 7% today. Why would that get going? Well, there's a crap load of semis and a crap load of stuff that comes from China. Case closed. Why would retail go up? In case you don't know, the XRT, another area, up 5.8% today. and that most everything was back a little bit above the 50-day moving average going in today and they gaped it even further. Why would retail?

Because a craplode of retail and apparel come from China. There's no way these companies can bring in underwear and socks and pay 145% tax on whatever they're paying. forced to. So the worst areas, and of course the financials do better because if the economy's doing better, the financials do better. Economically sensitive, same thing. So the United Rental type and those caterpillar types, strong day-to-day, and all on the gap. And I'm getting emails, what do you think from here? I think we go higher. We can pull back first, but this move today technically compelling as all hell. Everything coming up the right side. Everything. Some V-shaped, some less so. Institutions jumping on it. Do we pull back first?

Possibly. Not sure. I think we go higher. And why I say that again? You Because everything is coming up the right side, except I stopped out of my Netflix today. Why would Netflix go down on a day like today? Well, what ends up happening sometimes, first is last and last is first. And I'm just wondering Netflix Spotify got hit also. Why? Why were the exchanges like the CME hit hard today? Why were waste management stocks hit hard today?

A lot of insurance names, not all hit hard today. We call it parked money. And it may just turn out Netflix, Spotify, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, tobacco stocks were parked. And they just, oh, supermarkets, drug stores, all the major indices are now above the 50 day. Some even stretched above the 50 day pretty quickly because of this event. And let me be clear, it's an event. When you have major economic policy change overnight, it's an event.

And we'll just take it day by day. New high list, not a lot. Why? It was the worst of doing best. The worst of doing best today. But if this continues, they show up. Up next, what else on the market? News of the day. I'm Gary.

This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase. bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at Spreker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. To say March and April and May, the little bit of May we're in, have been stunning God only knows what's next. Actually, I don't think God knows what's next. We'll see.

Strong moves. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Capital One Financials, American Express, Black Rock. Those are on the move. Even the oils bounce because oil prices were up. Just anything that benefited from getting rid of those tariffs, boom. Market's still down on the year, but boy, off the crash lows stunning.

And I don't even consider the crash lows as the low. I consider the 2,000 point move off the crash lows as the low because that would come out of nowhere from a change of stance forced on the White House. And by the way, I don't say this is a put-down. I say we're just reporting facts. So I've got to do some other things. The president is out, and I'm going to use the words, price controls on drug companies.

He is proposing that they cannot charge drug companies any more than they charge other countries across the world. So in case you don't know about I, we don't like price controls. We believe in free markets. We think free markets work. But I must tell you, I understand, how do we kind of sort of try to put things together? How do we add one plus one and then find out that, You can buy a drug in Europe for, let's say, $2 a pill, but you pay $60 a pill here.

And by the way, that is not an exaggeration. This is true. I'm going to use the word excuse, but I'll also use the word reasoning by the drug companies is all the money they spend on research and development. But that still kind of sort of does not explain how if I'm in Europe, I will pay $2 for a pill. But in the United States, $60 for that same pill. And I don't know if you know this throughout the Canada, just north of us, pays less. So the president, I'm going to say I get it. while I say to you, I do not like price controls.

By the way, I do not know if they're going to be able to do this. I gather there's going to be some pushback, some lawsuits, who the hell knows. But just letting you know that's out there today. Interesting enough, drug stocks, we have already told you to avoid them. They were hit hard early today, but they bounced because of a stronger market. and biotech actually had a decent day today, even though they have already crashed in the months leading up to this. So that's another thing that's going on today. Sticking with the president, and I'm going to say three words, I would not.

Have you seen where the country of Qatar is offering a 747 tricked out airplane? for the president of the United States. Here you go, good sir. The president says they're going to take it. Air Force One type of thing and then put it at the Trump presidential library. I would not take it. Cutter is not a friendly player and it looks really bad. The president basically shot the middle finger at anybody who disagreed with him on that today.

We'll see how that plays out. I don't like it, but he don't care what I think anyhow. So drug controls, the plane, the tariff genesis. I'm being told it's the last American hostage was let out today, Edon Alexander. But I thought there were others. I'm not sure. We're told now there's still 58 hostages, but they think only 21 are alive. We must not forget a couple of things.

Number one, these animal scumbags, pieces of crap, hope they die a very painful death. Terrorists will do it again if they're able to. We cannot forget that. They will do it again if they are able to. Cannot forget that. That's why I'm always amazed anybody upset with Benjamin Netanyahu doing what they're doing.

They're fighting a war. Oh, and by the way, we're finding out all the stuff where they say the Gaza Health Ministry, which is Hamas, their numbers on dead are bull crap. We're finding that out. Let's hope the rest get out. And I gather that... I don't think any going to be entering Israel anytime soon. In case you don't know Palestinians, thousands of them would go to work in Israel every day.

That ain't happening anymore. Thanks to Hamas. In case you don't know, Hamas is murdering Palestinians that are against them. By the way, in the streets, and it's being videoed, but the Hamas lovers are still protesting. They're a bunch of scumbags also. We don't give them any quarter. I'd like to see them walk the streets of Gaza and say hello to Hamas, and especially the gaze for Hamas. The gaze would be hung and stoned.

You get my point. Anyway, so another hostage was let go today, and hopefully the rest, alive or deceased. And again, let's put a exclamation. point on that. So very eventful day. We sold two things today. We were forced to, kept our big ETFs. We're going to add more. As more leadership shows up, we'll be glad to. We think this is higher. How much we don't know, how it does it, we don't know. Do they pull it back? First, we don't know. All we can tell you, this was institutions today on very heavy violence. The S&P broke back above the highs of March today.

The NASDAQ broke back above the highs of March today. By the way, on gaps. The Dow, not there yet, but that's more to do with United Health. That has gone from 605 to 378, 220 times, that's like 1,400. now points, one down name. I will tell you that things like Apple up 12 bucks today. You think this meant a lot to them? That's about $180 billion a market cap. Apple gets back today. By the way, still in a bare trend. Meta, up 46 today. And that breaks above the March high. still a good hundred points below the highs of February,

but we use the terminology turning the corner, turning the corner. As we already scanned 1,500 names, we just didn't have to write it down a second time, just a crap load of stuff turning the corner from very deep lows, not so deep lows, medium lows meaning not drop as far

and it was in all the worst areas why they got rid of a massive tax hike on you and your business and the businesses you buy things from

simple as that they were forced too because they were crashing markets and in case you don't know there's no trade deals yet even the UK thing they did a couple of things there's no big trade deal this was all about the tariffs slash taxes up next whatever else thanks for being here I'm Gary this is the one only investors edge it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,

and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X. card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit

for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Gester's Edge, with Gary Kulp-Bah.

Okay, so let me repeat. Big Gap Day today. Finished a little higher than the gap, and that happened in the last 15 minutes. We think the market's going higher. We never know, when it goes lower or higher, we never know how far, how long. But we can tell you it was a high volume day based on a massive tax cut on business in consumer here. That's what happened. A massive tax cut on business and consumer here. It's huge. It crashed the markets one way and the changes stance rallying them the other way,

culminating with what happened over the weekend. A gargantuan drop from 145% tax. on everything coming in here to only 30. But remember, there's a ton of exemptions, zero, including Apple. That's the story. We think we're going higher. We don't know how. We'll keep you abreast every day,

but all the worst areas are coming up the right side now. Some things better than others. and if you recall up to mid-April, all we were saying, until the pause, avoid all these areas, and now they're all coming up the right side. Next, we're going to try and do something every day new here. I have an Instagram account, but I do nothing.

I post nothing, I follow a few things. And one of the things I found was a Instagram, whatever, called visionary minds. And I just love it. What it does, it starts out telling you about a company and how they change the world. And there's only like 10 windows. So it only takes a couple of minutes. So I don't know if we're going to remember every day, but we're going to do a lot of these.

And it explains to you what companies do. And we're going to start with Costco. Costco built a 250 billion. dollar empire by breaking all the rules. 14% max markup. 4 billion in membership fees. Just 4,000 products. Here is the untold story of how they redefine retail and the pricing strategy that

turn customers into diehard fans. Here's their golden rules. Never exceed 14% markup. Regular items, a strict 14%. Kirkland's signature is their in-house board. brand, even lower. Compare that to traditional grocery stores, which average 25 to 30% or department stores at 50%. By sticking to this golden rule, Costco has built unmatched trust with its customers.

Shoppers know they're getting the best possible value every time. What's the real profit? Membership fees are the real profit. Costco isn't banking on its product margins. It's all about members. With 120 million members, Costco earns a staggering $4 billion annually from membership fees alone. These fees account for the bulk of their operating income, effectively subsidizing the low product prices. This innovative model creates a cycle.

It's called loyal customers, high renewal rates, predictable income, and consistent value. Next, minimal choices and maximum efficiency. Unlike traditional retailers, Costco intentionally limits product options. A typical Costco has 4,000 compared to Walmart, 100,000. Each product earns its place to rigorous vetting, ensuring the best quality at the lowest price. The Kirkland Signature effect, Costco's private label, Kirkland, isn't just another store brand, it's a powerhouse, generates over 50 billion annual. I didn't know that. The products compete directly with premium brands.

Next, bulk buys and treasure hunts. Costco's unique shopping experience combines practicality with thrill. Bulk purchases offer incredible value, saving customers time and money. Limited time treasures like discounted tech or seasonal goods create urgency and excitement. There you go. There's your Costco. By the way, we're not telling you to buy, sell, shorter cover Costco. We're not advocating anything.

But every day, if we remember, you know, sometimes we get lost in our own voice, every day we're going to go through the next company. And, man, they've got Apple, Microsoft, Nestle, Amazon, a whole burger king, Marvel, Disney, a whole laundry list explaining how come. companies do things, and by the way, I'm learning about how they do things based on pricing, position. I love especially when they talk about retailers or restaurants and how they've been able to do what they do and how they're able to differentiate themselves from everybody else.

Do you know how many restaurant chains have gone out of business? You know how many restaurants have tried to be a chain and never made it? A bazillion. A bazillion. Oh, and I think also In-N-Out Burger is on here somewhere. I'll have to find it. Even the Beatles are on here and what they did. So that'll be, and by the way, it's called visionary minds on Instagram, and it has two whys.

It's just a site that I found and I was like, wow. And it's very short and to the point. And it gives you a good understanding of business and how businesses do things. Costco, $4 billion in operating income. Just remember a membership, there's no product to sell. That's pure profit. And it gets people in. And don't they have cheaper gas too?

They didn't even mention that in there. Anyway, we're going to do more of that going forward because we love learning and we love teaching. So, great day today. And we stopped out of two things. One we made money, one we lost a little, such as life. Have a great evening. Tomorrow is another day. Drive carefully.

Tomorrow, we have no clue what happens. And when you get home, do like we do. Number one, watch the Knicks tonight. It needs a big win tonight. Make sure you hug your children. Make sure you hug your family. Hope your mom's had a good Mother's Day. Stay well, be well.

Until tomorrow. Have a good night. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.