Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Tariff Cracks [04.03.2025]

Episode Date: April 3, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com__________Disclaimer:The opinions you hear on BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts are those of the hosts, callers, and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts, its management or advertisers. The information on BizTalkRadio et al does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any product or securities. Please consult a professional before investing.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom. I'm your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening. It is Thursday, April 3, 3, 2025. As we speak, it is 3.25 p.m. will take you to the market close. I don't have any good news for you.

If you listen to yesterday's show, we started out where futures were up nicely as the president announced a 10% tariff. And everybody thought that was it. At least the market did. And into the close, the market was cascading. I think that's the word to the downside. As the president, for lack of a better way to describe, the kitchen sink of tariffs. And what we're going to try and do with this show for you today is really explained to you without any agenda, ulterior motive, or bias on what's making the markets get hit pretty good today. And let me be clear, as I speak at 3.26 p.m., the Dow is down 1,546 points.

The NASDAQ is down 985 points. The S&P's down 253 points. The transport are down 1,300. And of course, the market is fluid into the close. We don't know if they'll sell it down more or buy it up. I can tell you as I speak, the small cap Russell 2000 is down 5.89%. The midcat 400 is down 6.5.5%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 9% today, down 400 points as I speak.

I went through a lot of stocks and I can tell you there's a bunch down 10% or more. First, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garykid.com. We'll also post it on Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. We'll post it on podcast apps. And if you'd like to email me, you just got to be nice. And in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We are called Investors Edge.

We will talk markets. the economy, jobs, unemployment, your job, your industry, and tariffs. So let me explain what's happening here and hopefully in straight English. The president put on tariffs on, I think, most countries around the globe. Basically what that means, whether it's 10%, 15% percent or 20 percent or 25 products that come into this country from those areas that who's ever buying that product is going to pay that tariff, that number to our treasury, a tax. At that point in time, that company has to make decisions, and not necessarily at that time, but whenever on whether they are going to eat it, try to deal with it with the country,

or pass it on to the consumer. If you are a big company, if you are a Walmart, it is easy to negotiate, let's say, with a China because of how much business you do with them, and that's to a certain extent. If you are a small business, you are screwed. If you do, let's say, 10 million in business and you get a bunch of chotchkes, from China that you sell in your stores, and all of a sudden you're paying 54% higher than you are paying, you may go out of business.

That in a nutshell is what's going on. And due to the fact it's been across the board and everywhere, the market is not taking it sitting down. For example, I just didn't have a lot of time today. We've been busy. But something like of on-holding symbol O-N-O-N operates from Switzerland-based 10,500 retail stores that offer premium sports shoes and apparel. They look to do, let's see, 13,19, 24. Let's call it $2.6 billion in revenues.

I read somewhere that they get most of their product through Vietnam and Indonesia, and now there's a tariff on there. It doesn't matter the percent because it looks like all their profits are wiped out now because of that. And the stock is down 14%. As I look through other apparel companies today, they're all being rocked because most of Most of them get their product from elsewhere. Now, I must tell you I'm getting some, I'm not going to call them nasty emails, but on Twitter somebody taking me on, or what are we supposed to do? Just let them.

And why aren't we making them here? And I'll explain to you why we don't make some of these things here very simply. The tariff. The tariff. itself will have less in effect than if they made the stuff here, that's how cheap it is to make over there. Simple as that. We cannot compete with other areas around the globe on production of things, and that's that. And we do not believe the president accounted for it. So Ralph Lauren today is down $39 to $197.

Lulu Lemon's down $27 to $255. William Sonoma is down $26 to $138. Best Buy is down $13 to $62. Burlington is down $20 to $235. Crocs is down $15 to $95. Dick Sporting Goods is down $27 to $183. Shall I continue? I must tell you that I am stunned that this administration did not know what the reaction would be to these tariffs.

I got to believe they know there is a direct 110% link between these countries and these companies. What else today? Well, due to the fact trade right now is, for lack of better words, kind of up in smoke, and a lot of countries are pissed off. And by the way, we're not saying they're right or wrong, but pissed off. You have other countries saying we got to sit down. Federal Express is down $31 today to $21.14. UPS is down $10 to $100. specifics down 14 to 224.

Landstar, a trucker down 14 to 137. J.B. Hunt, a trucker down 17 to 136. What do they all do? They deliver stuff and the worry right now and probably a decent worry is the slowdown in trade because of uncertainty. United Airlines is down $11 to $60.5. You catching the drift? Caterpillar is down 29 to 305. Marriott is down 18 to 134. Hilton is down 14 to 217. Hyatt's down 10 to 114. Canadians are not visiting the United States anymore, dropping over 75%. That is revenue to the airlines and hotels that is now gone and are not coming back anytime soon.

The airlines had to shut down flights because they couldn't get people on them from Canada anymore because we pissed off Canada. Goldman Sachs is down 50 to 512. J.P. Morgan's down 17 to 229. PNC Bank is down 15 to 161. How about AmeriPrize down 38 to 456 or Capital One Financial down 17 to 164? Why would the financials be down, well the financials depend on business. We don't think this administration accounted for any of this, which is stunning. I'm just a doofus, and I warned you about all this. I'm a doofus. I'm in the outside looking in. And all the president and his people had to do is listen to this show every day because we've been warning about these tariffs on a daily basis. Up next, we'll continue on this.

Hope you understand where this is coming from. I'm Gary. This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-22-559. that's 888422 55559 that's 888 422 55559 investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now to tommy john underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you. you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. Hey, it's Howie Mandel, and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my Howie Do It Gaming team take on Gilly to King and Wallow 267's million dollars gaming in an epic Global Gaming League video game showdown. Four rounds, multiple games, one winner, plus a halftime performance by multi-platinam artist Travis Travis. Travis McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins and advances to the championship match against Neo. Right now at global gaming league.com. That's global gaming league.com. Everybody games. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.

listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. So the last thing I just said to you, we are stunned that a Treasury Secretary missed the Bessent who supposed to be a market genius did not account for the reaction. And then and tell us, well, markets go up and markets go down, corrections happen. We're amazed that, again, I, a doofus, warned you about what could possibly happen from this. I watched Peter Navarro, one of his head trade guys on TV, say that tariffs are a tax cut, And then he was called on and said, well, in the whole scheme of things.

And then the president came out yesterday and said, the other countries, we're going to penalize them. They're going to pay for it. They don't pay a dime. We do. And that's why the market is accounting for all this. And let me tell you some other things that are going to happen in the next few weeks as we head into earning season. all these companies will make announcements about guidance going forward and accounting for those tariffs and the market is not waiting for that guidance because the market is smart the market

already knows that that on-on profits could be wiped out could be the financial companies business is going to slow. The semiconductor stocks, technology is target zero, and the auto tariffs. Remember what I call myself here, Mr. Logic.

And I mean that. So let's think about auto tariffs, auto parts. Who is going to go into the of a car and find 50 to 100 different parts from 15 different countries and then say, that's 12%, that's 15%, oh, that's Cambodia, that's 20%, oh, that's Vietnam, no, that's China. Did they even prepare for that?

So across the board, everything that could potentially be affected is getting hit. the other issue oh there was talk about yesterday was about certainty and clarity there is absolutely no certainty and clarity why

just today the press secretary came out and said the president is standing firm on the tariffs we have decades of years where we have been ripped off the Commerce Secretary Terry came out and said, we are in hot negotiations with these countries to get rid of the tariffs.

Which is it? And what happens if tomorrow they announce, well, that tariff on Vietnam, we're going to take it off? Well, they'll gap up at the companies that do business from Vietnam. And then what happens in a week from now they change their mind back? We don't think Vietnam has been nice enough. We're putting the tariff back on. You do realize that's what's been going on already. These are the warnings I gave to you.

I was so happy at the beginning of the show yesterday because I'm thinking, only 10%, that's fine. We can handle that for now. And then we'll go to negotiations. China is now 54% tariff on everything that comes there. Did I tell you Apple? You know that company Apple Computer? You know that company, right?

You've heard of them, right? The largest market cap company? It has lost $330 billion in market cap today down $22. It's on every mutual fund, so the mutual funds just all the way around. I gather Tim Cook's been on the phone with the administration 25 times today. I'm stunned. They did not prepare. They did not think this through.

And they're telling people think long term, not short term, not short term when it comes to the markets, while the Russell 2000 is now down 21%, 22%. That's an index from the highs. The semiconductors, it just recently, 5366, down to 3913, almost 30% recently. The financial stocks, well, Goldman Sachs has gone from 672 to 510 in six weeks. Let's see, that's 162 on 672. Oh, 24, 25%. These are all widely held names in these funds.

The transports has gone from, and I'm not going to use the high in November because they had just won the election, but has gone from 16-9 to 13-6 in recent weeks. That's 20% in recent weeks. That is not me talking. That is the market talking and having to account for this. And the problem is, does anybody really know what's next? I don't. We got two different things out of the administration today, one from the press secretary, one from the Commerce Secretary, and I don't know what they're going to do next.

And then there's the other side. Strength today. AutoZone and O'Reilly Automotive. Why would there be strength? Who the hell is going to buy a car? So you're going to keep them longer. The thought process is you're going to go to AutoZone and O'Reilly Automotive. What else is green today?

Well, let's see. Hershey's, Kimberly Clark, Philip Morris, Mondalese, Post, Pepsi, Campbell Soup, ConAgra. Why would that be? These are recession-resistant food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products. I didn't mention the drugs, by the way, McKesson's strong today. For example, recession-resistant, defensive. What else is strong today? Well, United Health and the Dow is up 19 points.

I'll explain that up next. And we'll take it to the close. Hopefully we can get a bum. I'm Gary. This is the one-only investor's edge. use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With

over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort. Tomport. Tomi John. Comfort. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com. for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is

Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with the crowd. is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him so hello managed care United Health is up 130 Dow points today even though the Dow's down 1600 as I speak you know what else is up in the Dow today Verizon phone company defensive Proctor and Gamble defensive Coca-Cola Defensive, Johnson and Johnson, defensive.

I still don't understand why the market buys up McDonald's as a defensive name in the Dow. McDonald's defensive? I'd have to think that through. What else is up today? Well, T-Mobile, phone company. Waste management, Republic Services, waste connections, they get your garbage. Defensive. The exchanges are up today.

I don't know why that's defensive, but it's. has been, BJ's wholesale, and Dollar General, defensive. So all we can tell you is the market's pretty loud, and I want to let you know up front, there have been a few Republicans that are really pissed off, and they try to put through the house with some Democrats something about not being able to do these tariffs. they want to be able to have the House vote on them. The president called them Never Trumpers and Globalists.

So let me state for the record, I am not a never Trumper. I am not a globalist. I have told you that I love his policy on the border. I love his policy on tax cuts and regulatory cuts, getting rid of the onerous, love the doge though

my complaint about the heavy handiness and they're starting to they've been working on that I love his defense of the Jews and the students at these schools I love all that these tariffs suck

so I am an 80% 90% trumper but the tariffs are a big matzabal and I only wished I had a Dixie Cup and a string so the president can hear me out.

Doubt he would listen. Ladies and gentlemen, these are gargantuan tax hikes on business and the consumer. And the market is paying down for anything having to do with the countries that are being tariffed up the wazoo starting with China at 54% now. And that's why Apple is taking a $22 drop today. They do business in China, which leads me to the next party equation, which they did not plan for. Listen carefully. All I heard today was, well, just do it here and just make it here. and people on Twitter, they should just move here and make them here. As I said, to make those things here, it's easy to take the tariff.

And it's been that way forever, and that's not going to change. And somehow, even with the tariffs that are at us, we're a $30 trillion economy, and we've been kicking ass in spite of the Joe Biden's of the world. this was a gargantuan, unforced error on his part, and we are told he's the greatest negotiator of all time. He should have been sitting down and negotiating before this. And now we're getting a market dislocation. To what extent I don't know, I don't know, and I can guarantee you the poll numbers will be going down. and people are going to be pissed off.

And the last I look, there is another midterm election. A long way away, you may think, but it comes pretty quickly. And I will guarantee you, if they don't change and nothing changes, the House will be Democrats and they doubly suck. That gives them the committees and the investigations. think about that and I do not think this administration as I stated from the outset today prepared for any of that I think I have explained myself very well and may I repeat I don't know what's next because I don't know what's in their head I don't know what they're thinking and I don't think he can just back away completely

at this juncture. I gather that would make him look very, very bad, and we are all products of our own ego, some more than others. And I gather the ego part will say, no way am I given in, but I would suggest to the administration to start negotiating very hard and very quickly on this because as markets go consumer confidence goes poll numbers go the wealth effect

goes and if you don't know the wealth effect has been a big part of the economy for quite the long time I expect to Republicans to finally turn on him why because Republicans a lot of

them have elections in midterms and they will jump off what they believe is a problem. You will see that. Remember, they are a bunch of wimps themselves. That's both sides of the aisle. That's how it works. So I hope you know everything I have said to you so far is the emis. we didn't have to opinionize. I've told you facts. Companies are going to start lowering their guidance and estimates and numbers. And those that say, oh, they're just going to blame tariffs. Well, tariffs, it is.

It is a tax hike on those businesses who may or may not pass it on to the consumer. or if you're big enough, try to negotiate with the country. But in any of those cases, tough road. And I do believe also that this administration really has got to fix the messaging. I've heard some countries, as I have said, tell them to go screw. Not in those words, of course. That means they're going to retaliate back. and I've heard others, I believe Israel dropped any tariffs and those were small anyhow.

I'm not sure who else. I didn't really keep up that big time today because I've been watching markets. That's the story. Notice I didn't tell you what to do. It's all a decision on your parts. Where it goes from here, I don't know. But as I speak, it is 354. I do believe the Dow is at the low of the day down

close yeah 1640 points down S&P 267 well let me give you a percent the Dow is down 3.8 something percent right now the S&P is down 4.5 something percent the NASDAQ is down 5.8 percent The NASDAQ 100 is down 5.3%. The transports down 9%.

The semiconductor index, the oftwatch, 9.6%. Have I pissed you off yet? The banking index is down 9.78%. That's the BKX that I follow. The KBE is down 8.8%. The regional banks are down 10.2% today. And ladies and gentlemen, it's all on the tariffs. Up next, we'll wind it up into the close.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast. might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investers Edge with Gary Culper. So, welcome once again to Investor's Edge. do you want to talk positives before we get the heck out of here the market right now is discounting a drawn-out

tariff slash trade war no doubt but what if it leads it's an if and in real time believe me what if it leads to better terms going forward? What if it leads to better trade going forward? And what if? Because the 10-year yield is just dropped, by the way, in case you didn't know, one of the indicators of potential economic trouble is the 10-year yield in the last six days

has dropped from near 4.4% to 4.05%. What if also the Fed starts to lower rates to account for this? Hmm. Hmm. So we're letting you know we're going to be watching very closely. We're going to stay on top of it. We do not have any control of it. We hate the fact that we have to stand by for it.

and what I mean by that is every freaking six weeks we got to wait for the Fed whether they're going to raise rates or lower rates a quarter point and whether he's going to say is or was and I think right now we're going to be waiting every day to see what country does what and whether we accept it and whether there's going to be higher tariffs or lower now I will say this the administration came out and said this is the high watermark on tariffs no great consolation of course. So if this is the high water mark, would that mean the only thing that would happen from here is it would go down? We shall see. As we go into the close, unfortunately, we're at the lows of the day. Only one minute to the close. I'm going to wait until it actually closes. These are institutions. Get me the hell out because things have changed on the ground. They have put out the biggest tax increase in history that also can change and will change. But when will it change and who will it change on and how is it going to change? We don't know.

We don't have a freaking clue. And that's the other part of this equation, the uncertainty of it that doesn't thrill. Markets closed. Dow down 1680. S&P down 274. Nasdaq down 1,050, NASDAQ 100, down 1,060. The transports 13171 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 427 freaking points. I see Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator, used to be leader of the Senate. As I have always warned, tariffs are bad policy and trade wars with our partners hurt working people most. Tariffs drive up the cost of goods and services. They are a tax on everyday working Americans, preserving the long-term prosperity of American industry.

And workers requires working with our allies, not against them. With so much at stake globally, the last thing we need is to pick fights with the very friends with whom we should be working with to protect against China's predatory and unfair trade practices. That includes what we do on trade. I could have written that. I could have written that. I could have written that. I could have written that. And again, I am not a globalist.

I am not a never-trumper. I am a conservative independent that believes in balanced budgets, less regulations, free trade, and not this. And it looks like the market kind of sort of agrees with me.

Unfortunately. As always, if anything changes, we will let you know. Tomorrow I will be on Fox Business Network, noon hour. Check that out. We'll be our usual handsome and buffed and charming self. Just speaking the facts with no agenda, bias, or ulterior motive. You have seen me take on the Democrats.

You have seen me take on the Republicans. We just want good, solid policy because I have never been more optimistic on us and our businesses. Medical breakthroughs, technological advancements. But they've got to get out of our way. my motto. Get those taxes down, taxes lower, less regulations, control the border, and go away. Instead, much. Mucho, much. It's pretty much the only Spanish word I know, even though I took six years.

interference with tax hikes by this administration, a huge unforced error. I wish I had their ear. I don't call myself Mr. Logic for nothing. You all have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise, stay well, be well. Thanks for joining. Good night, all. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch. than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One, travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.