Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Tariff-mania [03.31.2025 MON]

Episode Date: March 31, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. Oh, it's March 31st, last day of the month. That's right. 2025. And as always, we got plenty to do. In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We will do markets. And for the record, about as spastic a market today, as I have seen in many a moon, we'll get into it.

We'll do the economy. Your job, your industry. Doge, tariffs, whatever else comes to mind. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it again. GaryK.com. We'll also post on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. If you like to email me, just be nice, because we'll be nice back. And I have to tell you, it's been one of those days. My weekend, I was in, I flew into Milwaukee and went to Okamokamoka, whatever the name of the place was, to visit some friends. And of course, it was like

40 degrees and raining the whole time. So no fun. But I got to tell you, I've only been to Milwaukee a couple of times. I was there for the, by the way, the place I was at was Okanamoak. Anyway, the last time I was there was for the debate of the Republican Party,

for the presidency when the first time Trump was running. And I got to tell you, the people just so nice there. People of Milwaukee are just so nice. That's the best way I can put it. And I got to tell you, last time I was in Milwaukee, I'm in the middle watching the debate, and I had an attack where they thought I had a TIA, trans-schemic attack.

It's like a stroke. I had to go to the emergency room. I was all better within a couple hours, and they still have no idea what it was. But boy, that was some scary crap, may I state for the record. Ladies and gentlemen, kinder and more generous. As you know, and there are people that disagree with me, I believe the markets are held hostage. To a certain extent, I don't know what the percentage is. is, I would guess 75% held hostage to tariffs.

And over the weekend, we were hearing some very tough talk on the tariffs. And this morning, we opened up very badly again. In fact, this morning, the Dow hit 41,148. 41,148. So it was down about, let's see, early in the morning. 4153, excuse me, last, 41, 583, we're down about 430 points.

Again, even worse, today was the NASDAQ. Let's see, closed at 173222, was down about 450. So another very rough day. And then a video was played of the president from Air Force One. And he said, yeah, the tariffs are going to be kinder and more generous. kinder and more generous on other countries and it was played once and the market rallied a little bit and then

the market really rallied and I got to tell you amazingly just today the Dow which hit 41148 hit a high of 42

1 hit a high today of 42147 wow before finishing at 42 001 up 417 unbelievable

off of some words of the president so when I hear people say that tariffs aren't driving the markets well what's the outcome of this i must tell you we think we're pretty darn good at this no we really do and what we do is we read the tape and we look for price and patterns and all i can tell you is we're going to scan and i can tell you that downtrends aren't going to

change. Bareish phases, bare markets, whatever you want to call it, are not going to change. But I gather a near-term low of some consequence was put in, notwithstanding him coming off of kinder and more generous tariffs. I wish I can tell you something different. But we're really being moved by this subject. I wish I can tell you different. I can't. While the Dow was up 417, oh, let me backtrack.

The Dow had good relative strength most of the day as it started to get going. And with the Dow 417, the NASDAQ was still down 22. The semis were down also. But most everything followed suit. and in the Dow, it had good relative strength early. Just everything turned green by the end of the day.

And it wasn't just defensive stuff. You had some things on the moon. You got the banks come back. They were down big early. Visa. Sherwin Williams, Home Depot for a change. Strength remains in insurance. Some of the consumer staples.

gold, waste management, notice a lot of defensive stuff, exchanges, phone companies, a few oils. That's where leadership is. Everything else bounced to a certain extent today. normally I would say to you off a day like today a low was put in after a pretty nauseating drop by the way in three plus days the Dow had gone from 42 821 to 41 14148 at the lows today 1673 Dow points in three plus days the NASDAQ went from 18281 to 168454. 1427 NASDAQ points. And by the way, that was almost 8% in three plus days for the NASDAQ.

8%. So we know we're going to get bounces every now and then after drops like that. But you got one for the record books today. May I state for the record? For the record bucks. And odds do favor. I would suggest odds would favor

A low but I'm not going to say of consequence was put in Some of our favorite growth names were down huge today Netflix was down 33 finished down 5 Spotify was down 30

finished down 11 I can go through others but you get the hint My stuff screen was green most That's defensive food, drug, beverage, tobacco household products. Even the down and out transports were up today. Retail reversed today.

And they have just been absolutely trashed. So good finish. I have no clue about tomorrow. Up next, we'll keep talking. Markets. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally indicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. You know, I wish I can really go further with big time thoughts.

I wish I can say to you that I've got this great leadership. Again, insurance. Insurance had a good day. Gold had a good day. Phone companies have good relative strength. The exchanges. AutoZone and O'Reilly Automotive. Why?

Tariffs use cars. Waste management. MasterCard and Visa, not bad action. And a good day for the day. Dow. I already got one email. How does the Dow do that? Words, president. I try to tell people that everything he says matters. And I tell the people, I wish you'd take a day off, but that's not going to happen. And you know where I stand on tariffs. What also worried this weekend is one of his trade representatives, Peter Navarro, said, yes, we're going to take in $6 trillion over 10 years.

That's $6 trillion in higher taxes. That $6 trillion comes from either business or consumer. I think that was part of the equation. Again, I wish I can give you some great advice here, but I don't know what he's going to say next. But we do know most everything's in downtrends, except for the few areas mentioned. And let's hope today was meaningful.

let's hope today is going to be some sort of the low. I can't promise you. How bad it was early today? There was 659 new yearly lows on the NASDAQ and 347 new yearly lows on the New York. Now, of course, since we reversed a lot, it'll be an intraday new yearly low. But it tells you how many stocks are so,

darn week when you have that many probing new yearly lows. It's been a bruiser. It's been an absolute bruiser. Now let me give you one good thing. We are in some seasonal presidential first year strength. Should be. We'll see what April brings. And of course, course it's earning season also during April. We're just going to put our heads down, do our scans, find what shows up. Defensive has led. Today, better close. Tomorrow's another day. But I got to tell you some of the moves were quite spastic. I can tell you that the Dow, and by the way, we're not making this up. The Dow went up. late in the day in the last half hour,

went up 220 points within about 10 minutes and back down 170 points within 8 minutes before finishing a little bit on the better side. It was wild. But I will tell you around 3 o'clock, that was the big move, but the real story was at about 145, and that's when all the news came out, the video from the president.

We'll see. I wish I had an answer. I know where the leadership is. I know where the strength is. I know where the worst is. But I can tell you it was wild swinging day today. Volume looked to be on the, let's take a look on the volume. Heavier side.

So maybe a decent washout. What's a washout? After a huge drop in a short period of time, late sellers get out, market reverses, volumes heavy, wash out. You got the volume today, you got the move. I'm not so sure just yet. As I always say, I'd like to see a couple more cards come out of the deck. But very good finish today. not going to throw any cold water on this day.

It was kind of what I'd call a wicked day. And then you had some other weird stuff today. Out of nowhere, Apple went from 222 to 226 in 30 seconds. Came right back down. Don't know if that's a fat finger or not. We'll see. Other stuff going on. Well, how about Doge?

The Doge moment. Just a little thing sometimes. We're finding out the Biden administration spent $4 million in tax dollars on a museum to tell a selective story of EPA history. Even though 1900 people went through over a nine-month period. As of Friday, 4.3 billion of COVID-era funds remain unused. and dormant. Well, guess what? Thanks to the work of some people. 1.4 billion was recovered and returned directly to the Treasury. General Count and his team is moving urgently to return the remaining $2.9 billion. Don't you love our government?

Over the last three days, agencies terminated 121 wasteful contracts with a ceiling value of 351 million, savings of 156 million. But don't worry, those are only footnotes to these people, right? Haven't heard anything new on parading some of the culprits in front of the house and being asked how much money they made. I will not be satisfied until I see that. Anyway, that's a little bit of the Doge moment. It sickens me that a bunch of these can't use the words are destroying Tesla's and Tesla dealerships, threatening the life of Elon Musk. There's an industry out there of these people.

And by the way, some people you would think are normal or out there keying, taking out keys. And keying the Tesla is not knowing they're being videoed and they're all being videoted and they're all getting arrested. This is what people have in their minds. Let me take out a key and key a car because that's going to do something for somebody. It's all very weird, ladies and gentlemen. But back on markets, when the market's down big and finishes well and volumes heavy, after a drop of multiple days, if not more, usually it's somewhat of a washout. That said, as I'm looking at my screens, there's still a lot of red.

I'll know a lot more on my scans later. Hoping for better because it's been gross. Up next. What else? News of the day. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

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Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. You know, I promised you all that we're going to be unbiased here. We're going to praise when we should praise, and we're also going to... Here's the other things I don't understand. The president has blasted what's so-called neocons that are all for war and using military, right?

He has said he is not a nation builder. He has no interest. He was quoted as saying he cannot take off the table going into Greenland by force. You think I'm happy about that? This is the type of stuff that irks the hell out of me. Remember, we have no bias here. We get people calling us that are very much Trump lovers and they take issue. But we don't see a person.

We see policy. He also said he's talking about trying to get around serving a third term, that if J.D. Vance wins, he can name Trump vice president and then have J.D. Vance stepped down. This is insanity. I want to give benefit and a doubt, but my goodness. And let's talk about punditry. Imagine what the Republicans would be saying if a Democrat said all this. You catch in my drift? See, we have no bias, so we don't care if it's R or D. It's just very worrisome about what I call discipline. Where's the discipline? Is that asking for a lot? I don't think so.

We'll keep you informed. Other news. Well, here's a couple of things I do like. Ron DeSantis is calling for a $1,000 property tax rebate. They were trying to do something about getting rid of property taxes, but they're not going to be able to do that in one fell swoop. But I like that, and I never thought about that. Wait a minute, you buy a home, you pay sales tax,

and then you've got to pay property tax. I think it makes a lot of sense. Good to see. Don't know if it's going to pass or not in Florida. But these are the type of thing. we like. Keeping more of our money, getting the hell out of our way, life is good. What else? Do some tidbits here. I watched 60 Minutes and Leslie Stahl, who nauseates me, had a Jewish hostage, a Hamas hostage on there and actually had the nerve, the audacity to ask the person who was tortured and

starved if Hamas really meant to starve him or if they just didn't have enough food. The guy had to actually answer her on the question that they would eat in front of him and laugh about it. And of course, she also quoted Hamas on how many dead by the Israeli defense. quoting murderers and rapists. I don't know what happened to 60 minutes, but they should change their name to 30 minutes. I had to bring that up.

I know it as a little different than everything. What else? I was asked about this core weave. Came out at 40. It's now 37. And Vidae was forced to step in and anchor the IPO. with a $250 million order at $40 bucks. That's how rough it was.

And that's how tough the AI trade is. And by the way, even with the comeback today, and video was down, Broadcom was down, and my whole AI screen, I'm going to say eight out of ten were down, so that's still going on. I was asked about

what the head of micro-stratory, said last week, so I'm going to repeat it. Michael Saylor, who runs micro strategy and it's turned it into nothing more than a Bitcoin, just Bitcoin, said, and I'm not making this up, that Bitcoin is going to go to 50 million in price. Well, I said to you, if it did, it would be worth one quadrillion dollars, which is 10 times all of global. GDP. That would give me pause, just letting you know. And in case you don't know, what micro strategy has become is a leverage Bitcoin buyer. And as you know, we have told you, nobody talks about Ethereum anymore because it's crashed. And Bitcoin is what's left

standing and a few other things. We'll keep you informed. We'll see how it plays out. Also, getting a lot of talk from other countries, the German finance minister has told everyone that the higher tariffs on German cars, the entire German economy will be hit hard. That remains to be seen. We also remain to be seen exactly what the deal is going to be

when all is said and done. To put the bow tie on it again, we think this whole tariff thing is a huge mistake. It is unnecessary. Most people are asking me about, well, wait a minute, don't they do this stuff? Well, the reason why we have such a big trade deficit is we just buy a bunch of stuff. It is not a necessity. We got the 30 trillion economy with them tariffing us a little bit here and there. Whoopi. If you want, you're doing it because you want more manufacturing here. Just do it then.

You're the president. You meet with all these companies. You tell them what you're looking for. Come on, let's do it. I think you would get it done. But no tariffs. If all these tariffs go through, if they all go through, and I don't think they are, call me worried. Simple as that. Call me worried. First Trump told us, told the, warned the auto companies not to raise car prices. Now he's saying he doesn't care. Call me worried.

Tax cuts, love it. What he's done with the border, love it. Regulatory cuts, love it. Doge, love it. Though they got to pull back on the heavy-handedness. So a lot of things, the backing of Israel and the Jewish students love it. So as you can see, we're equal opportunity. We'll tell you what we love, what we like, what we dislike, and we think the tariffs are big stuff.

Let's hope he pulls off of it. He can save face, but today the story, kinder and more generous, that did the trick. That did the trick. One other note that came out that Trump is weighing, helping farmers if they lose money because of tariffs and it's exactly what he did in his first term. Which, by the way, is pure socialism. What? Pure socialism. We want less government.

We don't want more. As I have said to you, lower taxes, less regulations, strong border, fight crime, get out of the way. It's pretty simple. When I do my scans tonight, it's a little bit tougher. I'll explain. Up next. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, red, red. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So just so you know every night we scan for heavy volume moves, the biggest moves, where the moves are coming from. And due to the fact that it is an ongoing process, we pretty much know what things look like before we even start, except on days like today. though even on days like today that are wild we got to feel

the problem is is when you get these wild swings and I'm not talking just about today let me repeat in three plus days the Dow drops 1,673 points which is only about 4%. But the NASDAQ almost 8%

in 3 plus By the way, three days in a gap this morning. And then the reversal. The question is, is the reversal just because of how bad the drop was? And then we're going to come back down? Answer is don't know. There are moments in time where we can come here and say to you, hey, if Nvidia breaks above 505, buy the hell out of it.

It'd be a six-month breakout of the number one technology stock. That was January 8th of 24. Easy. It's been easy to come on this show and say to you, avoid the home builders. They topped out, have broken down, and have been riding down the bare market road since November. It's been easy.

Because not once, not once have they shown to be coming out of it not once breaking back above the all important 50 day moving average it's been easy

as of recent to tell you to avoid the airlines big top early February and little we did we know how bad they would get on the other end, gold, broke out GLD at 258 back in late January on its way. And then you have moments like

this where I'm going to have to look that Goldman Sachs was down 13, early finished up three. And the question being, is that a low? Is it a washout as well as other things? much tougher much easier when things are just trending much tougher when you get a swing like this we'll know more in the next couple of days but

Wednesday is this tariff day and one of my other issues is we're actually waiting on what he's deciding on tariffs on Wednesday This is what Jay Powell does every six weeks. You got to wait to find out if.

So not easy moment. But the market's down handily this year. It's been quite roughed up. The AI trade has been busted up. A ton of tech has been bloodied up. And we are taking our time. Leadership will show up again. but right now as we've stated, leadership is very defensive, recession-resistant type stuff.

What we'd like to see is economic stocks really come on. And they reversed up today, but after big drops, you know, something that drops 80 bucks and was down 10 earlier and finishes up one today is still down $79. dollars, downtrends, and that's our job. No up trends, no downtrends, no downtrends, and know what's going on with these companies, and know why. And that's where we do a lot of legwork also on exactly what's going on, and our stupid small samplings that we go about doing.

When I was in Milwaukee, there were a few places I visited, asking, questions. And may I state for the record flying back, my flight was half empty. Flying up there was about three quarters full. I asked the airport vendors, how was business? They were not thrilled. I asked people in TSA how busy things have been, not thrilled. So I'm always getting little tidbits anywhere I go. An Orlando airport definitive

slowing down. And you can tell in Orlando. Now maybe it'll pick up and we get towards the summer months. And of course Universal is opening up a new place, I believe in May. The epic we shall see.

But we are letting you know without everything we have seen a little bit of a slowdown not seeing disaster like some are saying but definitely a slowdown and the travel thing is important I don't know if you know this because of what's going on with Trump and Canada Canadians ain't coming to the US flights it's business is down 70 some odd percent making a bunch of airlines stopping flights that come in here from Canada. So that's going on too. We're also hearing from across the pond. People aren't coming as much. And you know what they're worried about? Immigration. You know, there's a lot of propaganda about, oh, if you come here and you are not a citizen,

but that's not true. People can visit. Anyway, you get to the point, a lot of that's going on right now. The latest is Virgin Atlantic came out today and said, uh-oh. What I am noticing, though, nobody's lowering their prices that much in the airlines. Eventually, they may have to. That all said, you have a great evening. Drive carefully. Boy, I got lots of scanning to do tonight. And when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise, stay well, be well. Have a great evening, everybody. Thanks for joining. good night

this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to garyk com

that's garykay dot com guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy john underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands

and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.