Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Tariffmania [03.11.2025]

Episode Date: March 11, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. I'm pretty sure it's Tuesday. It's March 11th, 2025. By the way, I'm not used to saying 2025. I feel like every time I want to give the date, I want to give 2024. You ever have that happen? No, I don't drink.

Anyway, in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. And I mean serious. Everything that affects you. The markets, the economy, your job, your industry, this administration, the last administration, debt, deficit, scams, shams, corruption, doge. And everything else that matters. And boy, oh, boy, there's a lot of things that pop up on a day. basis that we have to cover. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on our Twitter feed, as well as the podcast apps. And if you don't

follow us on Twitter, which is now X, you should. And if you'd like to email me, just be nice. In fact, I had about a dozen emails from people that completely disagree with me on tariffs. but I believe 11 out of 12 of them only disagree with me because it's Trump's tariffs because if they were Biden's tariffs they'd be against them. You catch in my drift? And none of them argued the definition of tariffs and what they do. they all believe that they were a good tactical tool but so far they have proven to be a terrible tool as the opposing sides have been giving him the certain finger that is not your thumb

not your index finger not your pinky finger and what's the one next to the pinky i don't even know what that finger's called anyway so again ladies and gentlemen, we don't care about personality. We don't care who. We care what. We care about policy. We love, love, love, love what the president has done at the border. He saved and is saving lives.

He won't get the credit from the scummy scumbag media. He's saving lives. Do you know how many people died under Biden? drowning in the river? How many died in the back of trucks? Not reported? Do you know how many children went missing under Biden? That's not happening anymore because it's been disincentivized. He ain't coming here. And if you get in, we ain't giving you nothing. So go back. But the bottom line, they have protected our border. It's the way it's supposed to be well done. I love them getting tough with the colleges.

I believe they try to deport some scumbag and the media. What about the First Amendment? Yeah, if you promote terrorists and terrorism, you should get your ass kicked out. Oh, but he's got a green card. Good. Turn it into a blue card. I love what he's doing there. I love his proposals on taxes and regulations.

We think the tariffs are a mistake, and we'll explain it one more time so you understand big time. You can't tell us you love lower taxes and then raise taxes by, as your own words, hundreds of billions of dollars. Tariffs are a simple tax paid by the business to the Treasury, and the business then decides, well, are we going to pay? pass it on to the consumer. All of it, none of it are some of it. That's it. There's no other definition needed. We know we're trying to get the others to do the...

I have news for you. We've gone from a nothing economy to a $30 trillion economy with people putting tariffs on us. And do you know why it hasn't bothered us that much? Because we're so damn big, so darn good. And they're so darn small. How did we get the 30 trillion? So I get a little bit of the point. I get it.

But I'm also told that the president is the greatest negotiator of all time. Can he sit down with them first instead of going tariff, tariff, tariff, tariff? So the latest. The latest. And by the way, I didn't even know this. But Canada provides electricity to some parts of this country. and Canada is now going to put a 25% charge on that in response to what Trump is done

and Trump's all pissed off and he asked how will we paying for electricity from Canada guess what? It was part of his deal in the USMCA. He signed off on it and I probably didn't see the fine print but he signed off on it So there's a big to-do going on, and guess what he did?

He's adding an additional 25% tariff to 50% on all steel and aluminum coming into the United States from Canada. Great. Anyway, we wish him well. We hope he does great things. We just disagree. And that's okay, right? Isn't that okay? Well, it's not a matter of disagreement.

It's a matter of fact. He said that Ukraine started a war. That, I mean, come on. Stop. And I'll tell you a weird thing happened today with Ukraine. We're being told Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day truce. And I'm thinking to myself, wait a minute. Didn't Russia start the war?

And isn't Russia the aggressor? And isn't Russia bombing the living crap out of Ukraine as we speak? So how is it being reported that Ukraine is agreeing to a truce? They didn't want the war in the first place. So there's a lot of weird crap going on, ladies and gentlemen. I'm just letting you know the Dow was down another 478 today. The S&P was down another 42. I will tell you, the NASDAQ definitely is trying to get some relative strength here.

Down only 32, NASDAQ 154. And I can tell you when the Dow was only down 200, the NASDAQ was up like 140, 150. definite outperformance, whether that carries to tomorrow. I have absolutely no idea whatsoever. But that was the story of the day. And you finally had some bids today in some of the, what we call beta. Netflix up 27, DoorDash up 4, Spotify up 19. I know it was up 4.

I only finished up a buck 40. That came in at the end of the day. So better tone there. but I already did my scans and it looks like anything that was up good today it looks like a blip compared to the recent drop

so there's still plenty of work to do and you know what can I tell you we told you about parking in the market McDonald's and the Dow was going up Apple was being held up well McDonald's was down 10, Apple was down 14 points the last two days.

So they're getting rid of the parking stuff. And what do we mean by that? The big institutions, when the market goes awry, look for what they consider to be safe spaces. And it's usually the biggest, most liquid, boring stuff until they got to get out of that also. And it looks like they started getting out of that also today. So I wish I had better news.

The Dow finished crappy. It was a rug pool at the end of the day. In fact, if I can get this, working for me. The Dow the Dow dropped 220 points 240 points in the last 10 minutes

which is not good to see but again as I said the beta was better today I do want to let you know China remain strong right out of the box today gold good day today gold miners a good day today but just a

lot of what we call death drops it's the best way I can explain it a lot of what we call death drops in the market in recent days and the word is that a word the word ew comes to mind it's been that icky

and I will state for the record And I thought today was going to be a real good day into the end, and they just did the rug pull. And I say that because when the beta is leading, it's usually meaningful. But the Dow type stocks today and the transports were murdered today. They kicked the transports in the teeth today. And I'm not so sure that is good news today. That is your rails, your truckers, and all. all that of the airlines and I got a couple of airlines news to talk about.

That'll be up next. The Doge moment. And whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living,

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What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Hey, it's Howie Mandel, and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my Howie Do It Gaming Team take on Gilly to King and Wallow 267's million dollars gaming in an epic Global Gaming League video game showdown.

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That's global gaming league.com. Everybody games. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to Hey! This promises to be fun. Investors Edge.

The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In today's Doge moment. And the things they are finding, are you ready? This would have never been found. Nobody would ever talk about.

In the years 2020 to 2020, The small business administration granted 5,593 loans for $3 million to borrowers whose only listed owner was 11 years old or younger at the time of the loan. While it is possible to have business arrangements where this is legal, that is highly unlikely for 5,593 loans, you ready for the next? On Friday, there were 162 cancellations of non-essential contracts with a ceiling value of 205 million and savings of 90 million. I'm going to just mention to you one of the contracts, and I'm not making this up.

It was a USDA contract for 10.3 million. They had a 10.3 million contract to identify unnecessary contracts. We're not making this up. You would think this is a comedy act, but they were going to spend 10.3 million of our tax dollars in order to identify unnecessary contracts. Why would you need to put aside 10.3 million of our tax dollars to do something you should be doing no matter what.

Do you know why? Because they're paying people off. It's the Gambinos and the Gaudis that have been in our government for years. They pay themselves tributes in every way, shape, or form. Unbelievable. Unbelievable.

They really don't care about us. We're nobody. We're slush funds. That's it. That's all we are. They hate us. They're laughing at us. I think I can leave the Doge moment for today and let that stand.

So much more coming out. We'll save more for another day. By the way, we're told the Ontario Premier, his last name's Ford. the electricity is in Minnesota, Michigan, and New York, parts of, and he added 25% surcharge after Trump threatened to raise aluminum and steel towers from 25 to 50 and then Trump raised from 25 to 50. So we have a reverse tactic. Yippee, yeah, yeah. And I want to thank everyone who are emailing me,

agreeing or disagreeing. We're cool. We're cool. We're cool. We're cool. We're cool. I expect very quickly that some sort of understanding will be coming forth and hopefully we can get rid of this stuff. And that's on that. Back on the market. Southwest Airlines I know some very smart people in the industry think this is a huge mistake that Southwest Airlines separated themselves from the other airlines by

number one not having premium seats and not charging you for baggage Southwest Airlines has changed their mind they're going to be doing premium seats and they're now going to charge for baggage if you are not one of their premium members were some type of members which they're going to try

and get you to be a member of the Southwest Airlines frequent flyer. Then there are others that say it's a great move because they were giving away money because on these other airlines

they've been able to charge lots of bucks for the luggage. We'll see how it plays out. Interesting. I have absolutely no clue how that plays out. But Southwest has been, I guess not performing so great. In other airline news, Delta, really lowering the boom on their numbers, and you know what they're saying?

The consumer is pulling back. Interesting. Because I fly almost every week, and I think they're, I know they're right. because I can tell by the lines at the airports. Now, I fly Delta from LaGuardia, and I have the digital access, so I have no weight online, but I get to see the other lines that are right there, and I can tell you they are quite, quite, quite shorter in the last couple of weeks than they have been. I leave out of Orlando.

I'm not so sure the lines have been that much shorter. But I would suggest there's a little weakness in there and how do I know? Because I know the peeps at the hotel there. And they've been telling me it's a little bit on the soft side. So maybe something to that. And of course, I also think there's something to the fact that I used to be able to fly for New York and back for $250. I now pay $500 round trip, economy. And then I get upgraded to first class seven out of ten times.

But I love seat 26C. It's an exit row and nothing in front of you from a long while. And the bathroom right there, just in case. So definitely some softness. And very weak. Very weak. Expedia down 7% today. And has gone from 207 to 163.

booking holdings down 97 bucks today has gone from 5282 to 4353 Airbnb down 5% today Marriott 4% today has gone from 307 to 246 Hyatt has gone from 168 to 127 Hilton that was holding up the best 275 to 231 just in weeks so definitely the market is flushing some things out travel related. Just letting you know. And of course, we do not own any of them because

travels in a bearish phase now. Up next. What else are we finding? And whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

There's zero chafed thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you. expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for or, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Hey, here's some good news. we'll put this under the tariffs and the threat of tariffs may work we're going to hand it to Trump on this the Ontario

Premier has just dropped the 25% electricity surcharge after Trump threatened to raise Canadian aluminum and steel tariffs from 25 to 50 he says

that he spoke to Howard Lutnik the Commerie Secretary and he said we're letting cooler heads prevail so let's say Canada has pulled back so here

maybe the threat of tariffs worked I'm all for that yay let's see that happened after the market closed is the market rallying? No it's not the Dow in the after That's up 20 points.

Anyway, at least that's good news. We'll take that. Look at that. In real time. Yay! What else? I just wrote some of these notes down. First off, the transports.

Now, for those of you who don't... Well, let me just put it in the best way I know how to say it. The transports are now... The closing low of the year was 14761 of the last year. No, 14781, it closed at 14780. A closing low, yearly low for the transports. Not the low because you had a big reversal day last June. We have gone from 17845 to 14780.

Let's call that 3,000, almost 2,900 and change. It's going to be about 16% from the highs, right? 16 to 17. Why does that worry me? Well, in case you don't know, you know what transports do. They move everything. They move packages. Lots of them.

through truckers and rails and FedEx and UPS. There's also logistical stocks in there, and they are getting hammered. Expediters, EXPD, just got crumbled in two days after trying to act well. Rider, 171 to 140. 46 and 2.5 weeks. Rider wrench trucks, right? We already know about FedEx and UPS.

How about Norfolk Southern? 277 to 232. That's a rail. CSX it is a new yearly low. That may be a multi-year low. Almost. That's worrisome. Why?

Because the market's pretty smart. and if you're going into a bare market for rails and truckers and the things that you deal with, regardless of any news, that's problematic. In my humblest of opinions, not to mention as we reported to you, the United Rentals at New Yearly Lows, you know what they are. If you go to United Rentals.com, which I am doing, and I click rent, there's scissor lifts and boomlifts and telehandlers and mini-escavators and skid steers and track loaders. I don't know what the hell any of that stuff is, but I do know what they do. They're in everything. Construction City. And it's in a yearly low.

What is the market telling you there? and then there's Caterpillar 418 to 339 what is it telling us there and I noticed Lenox International was upgraded yesterday not a good upgrade it was down 39 bucks today

heating and ventilation construction a lot of weakness in those areas so just a heads up the economically sensitive part of the market continues to act like the south end of a northbound jackass

and that is worrisome. Not to mention Dick's sporting goods today, down 12, 5.7% on their earnings that were down 6% and revenue was flat, recently Best Buy, gap down, big time on a 5% drop in sales and a 5% drop in earnings. But it's only Best Buy and Dick's sporting goods. Who cares about that?

Lows is crumbling to a six-month low. Home Depot to a six-month low. Oh, don't worry. We just get a ton of stuff there for our homes. And I also noticed another one. Pool. P-O-O-L down $21 today. It's pool stuff.

And we already know the home building stocks are in a big bare market. so man oh man we're on watch we are on watch we are on watch for the economy not because somebody thinks so

but right now the market's a kind of sort of screaming at you that something is up are the markets ever wrong about things like this? Yeah, I'd say so. But it's getting

hairier. It's getting hairier. And if anything changes, we will gladly let you know. The other side of the coin was recently the consumer staples

was getting the juice, though they were down today. And lastly, the big banks and the mergers and acquisition companies and a lot of financials, huge pressure as of recent. That's also, you may not think so, oh, that's economically sensitive. Because they make a lot of money on borrowing and lending and all that crap. And by the way, they're also now coming after MasterCard and Visa. MasterCard just broke the 50-day handling and so did Visa today in the Dow.

And guess what they are? The greatest bookies on earth. use the card, you better pay us full or we're going to charge you at 25% or whatever the hell that is. By the way, there's a move afoot by a Republican and Democrat to get them to only be able to charge 10%. That is the stupidest idea in history. That is cutting profits off of companies. And you know, it's going to happen. There is no chance in hell somebody.

with a certain amount of income is going to get credit cards anymore. They're going to have to cut the water off. And if you don't give a lot more, a lot of credit cards out, guess what happens to the economy? Ooh. So these politicians have not thought it through. Be careful what you wish for. Do I agree with 23, 24, 25 percent? No, I don't.

But they fully disclose it. And they also say if you pay each month, you're good. Going down to 10, bad. You want to change it maybe to 19 or 18? Something to think about. I don't like ever price controls on anything. But we'll see how it plays out. I can gather the Mastikarton Visa lobby is going to be out yelling and screaming.

And we'll know what happens because Nancy, Pelosi will insider trade the stocks before we get the answer. By the way, that was not sarcasm and that was not a joke. I meant that. What else? I know I wrote a few things. Oh yeah, yeah, yes, semiconductors. Terodyne down 17% to 87. It's gone from 144 to 87 in eight weeks. They said sales may be down up to 10%. Not good. Up next. What else we got for you? This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,

and their innovative horizontal quick-draw-fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% of it. off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole process, You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Kaltba. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Speaking of semiconductors,

let us not forget they are quite the economically sensitive as they go into everything, chips. What do they go in? Cars? By the way, the car business is slow. You know how I know? I check some lots. I speak to some people in the industry. You know how you know? When you see all these late night TV ads zero percent down, five years of no interest. Just remember they don't want to do that. They have to do it. So that baby's going on. Where else are chips and your phones and your commands? I mean everything. What am I even giving you a list? And it was a rough day for a bunch of semiconductor stocks today that we follow closely.

Texas Instruments down $9, closing a closing nine month low on Texas instruments. Analog devices that had such a strong reaction to their crappy numbers has gone from 247 to 209 in two and half weeks since a very weird reaction to their earnings. So not good. Love to hear from you. If you are close to your industry, your companies, get a feel for things. Email me. I want to hear from you. I'd like to know what's happening in your industry with your company, how is business. Just want to get some feel. I'm pretty good at going out there and getting my own little lay of the land. I can tell if Chipotle's doing well a lot of the time, as well as other, especially on the restaurant front. I'll tell you, which be the greatest stock on earth, it'll be Chick-fil-A.

There is one here in Lake Mary and Lake Mary Boulevard. Man, oh, man. Sometimes there's 75 cars online. and I must say once a month I do get the Chick-fil-A sandwich with the Chick-fil-A sauce, which is so darn good. People I have been speaking to and hearing from, there's some weakness going on. I don't know to what extent. I've been asked extensively about the Atlanta Fed coming out and saying we're going to have a down 2% quarter in GDP.

they were at up 2% and went down. I don't know what they're seeing. I hear somebody gave an excuse. Oh, it has to do with exports or imports. I got to tell you, GDP is GDP. I think a part of it is going to be less government. There is no doubt my mind, Joe corrupt Biden, use the government to make GDP better than it usually would be.

No doubt. And, of course, running $2 trillion year deficits, above your already normal spending. We'll juice things. Have you noticed the media doesn't even mention the word Biden anymore? They want to forget him. They're so pissed off that Biden enabled Trump to come back. They didn't even talk Kamala Harris anymore.

I haven't heard her name. The media now hates those two because they enabled Trump to win. and they still don't give the guy a break. If Trump court caused cancer today, cured cancer today, it wouldn't get reported. No, really, it would not get reported. But you know what they're reporting a lot of? Tariffs and the stock market dropping. If the stock market rallied 3,000 points next week, it would not get reported.

You all just remember that. we'll report it because we don't have bias here anything else I'm noticing something that just caught my attention when you have a chance I want you to look at the HG and the JNK

these are high yield bond index funds that trade on the NYSE you know they're starting to roll over a little bit they would go into a bare market if we're going to a recession. So we're watching that closely. H-Y-G and J-N-K. That caught the side of my eye.

Bitcoin bounced a little bit today, but that remains in a bearish trend right now, holding just above the gap that came from the election Actually, I take that back. It is just above the day before the election price gap, but certainly has lost the bull mode as of now and wouldn't go near it, as we've told you, what we think. The last bare market for the NASDAQ, Bitcoin went down 75%, and we disagree. vehemently with having a crypto, whatever they want to do like they do with oil, a reserve. Really?

A reserve on something that has ability to drop 75%. Yeah, sure. So we love a lot of things that are going on there. Not so much love for a couple of things. And we'll keep you up to date. We'll stay on top of things. but most importantly with no bias of general ulterior motive will guide on the markets and right now notwithstanding the bounces yuck we would definitely hopeful today

and they just rug pulled it to the clothes the best bullish phase right now is gold in china and a little bit of Europe that said you all have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise. Stay well, be well. Until tomorrow. Peace out, all. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes

or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect. like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.