Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - tariffmania [12.09.2025]
Episode Date: December 9, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/The opinions you hear on BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts are those of the hosts, callers, and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or Bi...zTalkPodcasts, its management or advertisers. The information on BizTalkRadio does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any product or securities. Please consult a professional before investing.
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.
Thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It is Tuesday.
It's the 9th.
It's December.
it's 2025. I'm back in Florida. I left 15 degree weather. I believe we had like 65, 70 here in Florida.
Why do I even go up to the northeast? I got to tell you, 15 degrees. That's cold kids.
Hey, as always, serious talk on everything that affects you. And particularly now, everything that affects you.
on being in nobody's tank, in nobody's camp,
all we're interested in is not being BSed.
We want to be told the truth.
We don't want to be treated like we're stupid.
And unfortunately, another administration,
same old, same old, same old.
We'll pick that apart in a little bit.
And why are we going to pick it apart?
because it really matters.
No, it really matters.
And of course, we'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, whatever comes to mind, whatever matters.
And if you don't get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our X feed.
If you don't follow us next, you should.
If you'd like to email us, just be nice.
By the way, also on the YouTube channel.
Biz TV and other podcast apps.
All right.
So, a little distribution in the market, nothing bad.
In fact, while I can tell you the Dow was down 178 today, the NASDAQ was up 30 and the NASDAQ 100 was up 40.
And the Russell 2000 was again up.
While I can tell you, the Dow is down 365 points this week.
No, let's call 395 points this week.
I don't think it's that bad except if you own J.P. Morgan, which we did coming into today.
And we'll explain that in a little bit.
But I have to tell you, first off, the big banks acting well, the gold and silver acting well,
little better tone in the crypto.
We've had a good broad base move in the market,
but I think we're already losing that broad base particularly.
Remember we were telling you how healthcare really coming on?
Well, that didn't last too long.
It didn't last too long.
In fact, healthcare kind of getting smeared right now.
Some stocks that went vertical, what's the opposite of vertical?
Eli Lilly talk about that stock went crazy to the upside and nine straight days down, down about 130 points.
And I'm being told it's because of major league competition for that, whatever.
By the way, it really works.
I hadn't seen, I'm not going to mention who somebody in about four months.
who was not thin and more than and just lost everything,
took whatever and boy, oh boy, wow, look great, they say they feel great,
stuff works, just letting you know.
So I don't have much to complain about except J.P. Morgan, which was down 50,
bucks today. Stock was acting perfect and they had this conference and they announced something about lower rate on fees for certain things and they just hit the crap out of that thing today. And amazingly, J.P. Morgan is the one you always depend on. Nope. Goldman Strong. Morgan Stanley's strong. City Group strong. Bank of New York is strong. Even Wells Fargo was strong. And they kicked J.P.
P. Morgan and the teeth today.
Yippee.
What else?
Tomorrow is the Fed.
So let me explain two very important parts of that
that will not be explained to you.
Number one.
The Fed only controls short-term rates
unless they are printing money out of thin air
to buy up the whole freaking bond market
like they did a few years back.
they say because of COVID.
And of course they did that.
And of course, what happened is they stayed there, they kept it there, and they created all the stupid inflation.
Inflation finally came down when they stopped printing money and they started raising rates because they were forced to.
Remember, the reason why he doesn't get buried for the inflation is because he is not elected.
So they all blame Biden.
Biden gets the blame because he called it transitory.
also is asinine, assent, ass-11 federal spending increase in the government. Again, as much as I am not thrown with Trump, Biden was the worst president we have ever had by far. And we'll get into President Trump in a little bit. So he's going to lower short-term rates. There's a problem. What have we said to you for a very long time about the Fed and rates?
that they had better listen to the market.
If the market is screaming, else, there could be problems.
So if the market is screaming don't lower rates, and they lower rates, could be a problem.
If the market's screaming lower rates and they don't, could be a problem.
Well, we'll let you know, leading up to tomorrow, where it looks like,
they're going to go from three and three quarters fed funds rates to three and a half.
The 10-year yield in the last seven, eight days, has gone from 3.988 to 4.186.
Now, you may not think that's a big move, but it is in a short period of time.
And we're just here wondering, is the market trying to tell him something?
And if he lowers rates too much, what is that going to mean?
On top of that, you have President Trump who has telegraphed Kevin Hassett as the next head of the central bank after Powell's gone, which means Donald Trump will be running the Fed.
Kevin Hassett's just a puppet.
Nothing personal.
And I'm not even saying that as a put-down.
It just is.
It's the nature of the beast.
The president likes control, and he's going to put somebody in there that he can control.
There's no doubt in my mind.
So the worry, what if he lowers rates but the 10-year yield keeps going higher?
What is the 10-year yield?
Well, those are your mortgage payments.
It's cost of capital.
We're going to be paying attention to that.
Right now, you have a little bit of persistence to the upside in long yields.
And when we say long, that's duration.
And of course, Powell has never listened to the market because he thinks he's God.
And certainly the president won't listen to the market because he thinks he's double God.
He can do no wrong.
And probably if I'm a billionaire and I became president for a second time after being blasted for a few years and impeached twice, I'd probably think I'm God too.
Anyway, so that's a little bit of the story.
And again, I will tell you, we did not buy into health care.
And I was actually a little bit mad about it.
I'm not mad anymore.
They're actually really hitting it pretty darn good
and brought it down pretty quickly.
So it's not all,
but a lot of avoiding this second until otherwise.
I also have to let you know we did a early webcast today
and I have to tell you,
there's still a lot of areas
to definably, definitively avoid.
And how do we figure
that out? Well, we know what bare markets look like. We know what bearish markets looks like.
We know where trouble lies based on the action, not based on what somebody thinks. So just letting you know.
And you know what we're going to do in a couple of minutes. We're going to list it for you.
And I have to tell you, some names in some areas are still way, way down.
starting with the payroll companies.
We already know the jobs market is on the troublesome side.
ADP and paychecks remain in a brutal bear market.
And if that ain't something to watch, I don't know what is.
Brutal bare markets.
And just so you know what they do, I use paychecks.
They handle all my stuff.
Up next.
what are those areas?
And we'll explain them to you.
I'm Gary.
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You're listening to.
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With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
Boy, oh boy, I'm just noticing in the aftermarket cracker barrel.
you know the stock by the way classic bear market in Cracker Barrel
stock's gone from 72 to 27 since July
it's down another three bucks in change after the close
they lowered guidance again but they kept the CEO great
and I noticed also Dave and Buster's getting yonked also in the aftermarket
so you got a restaurant and what is Dave and Buster's a play
what do you do, a lot of games and restaurant too, both being hit in the aftermarket.
Anyway, just letting you know these areas.
First off, the AutoZone areas.
They were already weak and embarrassed trend.
AutoZoned down $270 today.
7% it is a high price name.
Classic bear market.
And of course, when you look at the group, advanced auto parts, classic bare market.
O'Reilly Automotive, Classic bare market.
What's the other one?
Genuine Parts.
Classic bare market.
The waste management companies,
waste management, bare market,
Republic Services,
waste connection, bare markets.
We already mentioned ADP and paychecks.
You know where you give your blood,
Quest Diagnostics and Lab Corps?
Well, they've topped out badly.
By the way, we put that in the health care group.
Auto dealers,
just plain all week.
managed care. We have highlighted that, starting with United Health, for a very long time.
And by the way, I might as well stop for one minute and say, I saw a video. It looked like about 25 women outside the court.
One poster said, I want to marry you, Luigi. Another one. What the frick is a matter with these people?
What happened to these people?
Where they actually are not just, hey, we agree.
They're actually going to the court and praising him and celebrating.
They're cheerleading a guy that took out a freaking gun and like a cowardly prick that he is,
shot a man in the back dead who has two kids and a wife and never did anything to anybody.
And these women, what the hell is going on?
Are they nuts?
By the way, it was mostly, there was some men too.
And they've raised money for his defense.
He's a murderer.
I move on.
Hotels.
Do you know about two weeks ago, the hotels looked like they had about them sitting near the highs.
look like they're about to go topside
on a nice little breakout to the upside.
They have all tucked in badly like frightened turtles.
Just let you know.
So the hotels have topped.
The cruise lines, very bad shape.
Only Viking is strong.
That was the recent IPO in the last year.
Viking cruise is strong.
But Royal, Norwegian, Carnival, very weak.
Bear markets.
But I do want to point out Norwegian, big insider buying as of recent,
but just because somebody's buying insider-wise doesn't mean the stock goes up.
Housing stocks, well, we've been all over that for quite a while,
and includes the housing-related.
Sherwin Williams in the Dow, a brutal bear market.
William Sonoma, not deathly bear market, but not bullish.
Let's see, Whirlpool, brutal bear market.
market so housing related home depot was down by the way home depot was down nine pre-market then up to
finish down almost five today what did they say their comps going forward not very good and we've done
our own little channel checks at home depot and i wouldn't say things are bad but they're soft
stock's saying so so the home builders home related the consumer
consumer staples.
Holy crap to Procter
and Gamble in the Dow.
Holy crap to Clorox.
Holy crap to
Colgate and General Mills
and the tobaccos
Pepsi and Coke.
And don't get me started
on the alcohol stocks.
That's good news.
Bad news for the stocks. Good news that
people aren't
drinking as much.
Barish.
China. Chinese ADR is just plain old bearish now. Restaurants. There's two that are strong. Dine brands, which is IHOP and Applebee's.
Restaurant brands, which is Burger King and Tim Hortons. Relative strength-wise. But don't dare look at Kava Group. Don't dare look at Chapoet. I mean, holy crap.
and the rest are just
well I just mentioned cracker barrel
didn't I
how to hell can the CEO keep her job
nothing personal
she's overseen a stockhold
from 72 to 23 and a half
now in the aftermarket
yeah let's keep her
the AT&T Verizon
T-Mobile bearish
the utilities
topped
bare mode
interest rates
sensitive. Then you got some important individual names. Costco, bear market. Netflix,
bare market. Boeing looks like it just failed at the 50-day. Meta just looks like it failed at the 50-day.
Maybe failed. Uber, the same tractor supply. Mastercard and Visa, just plain old bearish.
And then as I stated to you about healthcare, Amgen, was at New Yearly Highs?
Four days ago at 3.46.
It's 313 in four days.
That's what we mean by coming after the healthcare.
Economically sensitive names, not all,
but if one wants to look at carrier, air conditioning,
brutal bare market.
GE looks like it's topped.
Something like a roper ROP.
brutal bare market energy systems
United Rentals
just a brutal top and bearish phase now
to that important name
so we're just letting you know
there's a lot of ick
still
while the indices are up near the highs
the Russell's app up near the highs
even the midcaps
so very important
stock selection
Moey Importante
right now. Up next. Have I thrilled you yet? Up next. Yeah, we'll figure it out. This, that,
and the other thing. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect
fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing
brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million
pair sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com
code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture
X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit
for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you
One step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,
explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like,
Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at Spreker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to America is talking.
Investor's Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Of course, the strength has been the semis, not all.
the electronic manufacturer contractors, the data storage, not all.
The big banks, not J.P. Morgan today.
The private equity companies are coming on strong like Blackstone, Black Rock, Evercore, KKR.
Other financials, pretty darn good.
State Street Bank, Investco, Synchrony Financial.
The Canadian banks are stronger than our banks.
Gold, silver, VIII.
very, very strong.
Silver had a bang-up day today.
In the MegaCaps, Broadcom, Apple, Google,
strong, Tesla's trying,
but a lot of weakness underneath there.
Markets quite interesting, I must.
Again, you better be in the right spots.
These areas I just told you about,
by the way, we didn't even mention the bad retailers.
There's some strong retailers now.
Abercrombie and Fitch, American Eagle Out
Boat Barn, Estee Lauder, Five Below, Ralph Lauren, Raw stores, T.J. Max, urban outfitters, the dollar stores.
But don't you dare, go look at Crocs.
Don't you dare go look at Lulu. Lemon?
Holy smokes to that one. Don't you dare look at Target.
So, Mix Bag there also.
I didn't mention defense stocks, you know, the war guys.
Mostly bearish.
So you better be in the right spot, kids.
You better be in the right spot.
As we get the Fed tomorrow, who the hell knows what they do or say?
Again, nothing personal.
I don't know the guy.
He's nauseating.
Overrated, dalt.
Seriously.
About as overrated as can be.
Moving on.
I am in first place in my fantasy league, all by myself, with three weeks to go.
I should have already won it, but there were a couple of weeks where Lamar Jackson just screwed me.
But I am in first place in the Couch Potato League.
Name of my team is Reese's Pieces after my grandson Reese.
And God bless the Seattle defense, the Dallas kicker, Jamir Gibbs.
Wow
But I got to keep winning
I think I've got an easy
Matchup this week
But I need
You know
I got I'm going to still play
Lamar Jackson this week
I could play the Chargers quarterback
But Lamar Jackson was even a little bit better than that
By the way
I also have Puka Nakuwa
the wide receiver for the Rams and he has been bang up for me this year.
And Zay Flowers finally had a good game with the Ravens quarterback.
So we shall see.
If I win this week and the second place team loses,
I win the championship, I believe.
Hold on.
No, I wouldn't.
Still got to win one more game after that.
Yeah.
Anyway, so that's my fantasy league update.
So when I go on Fox, I'm very careful because I know the administration's temperamental, and I disagree with a lot.
So what I always do is, you know, I wish I had the president's ear because I would tell him.
And I do it very constructively, very constructively.
I don't use pejoratives.
I don't call names.
but it really is getting to be
what's the Genesis song?
Land of Confusion
See, I am
economically conservative
forget the rest.
I'm not Republican.
I think the Republicans suck also.
I think they're full of crap too.
Why?
They're running $2 trillion deficit this year
and they didn't have to.
But I can go backwards and come up with other things.
But I am economically conservative.
I believe there are certain things.
Number one, low taxes, less regulations, get rid of onerous regulations.
And the good news is the president's doing that.
the good news is the president extended his tax cuts.
This is all good news.
The bad news is a lot of the rest.
Let's talk about it.
The land of confusion.
Well, for months, he was telling you all trying to convince you that tariffs are paid by other countries.
well if I'm to use the right word it's a lie it's not a mistake it's a lie
tariffs are paid by the importer the business who has the choice of putting it on to the
consumer it's a fact 1,000% now one could argue there could be negotiating
between both parties, but by definition, a tariff is a tax.
Yet this Treasury Secretary goes on TV and says it's not a tax.
Okay, call it a fee.
What's the difference?
It's a cost.
Whatever.
We don't like being treated like we're stupid.
We don't like getting the middle finger shot at us.
So that's the start of the little confusion, not to us,
But he's telling people out there that just want to believe everything they say, and we understand that.
Well, that's number one.
It's a lie.
Number two, the president told the farmers what he's doing for them yesterday, which is handing them $12 billion.
I don't know which way they're doing it.
But the reason he's doing is because he screwed them because of the tariff.
But he was out there and he gets a farmer with him sitting there and praising him like crazy.
I got news for you.
There were other farmers out there pissed off.
But they wouldn't actually have them sit next to him.
So the farmers got screwed and then get taken care of by who?
Us.
Us.
Then the president is out saying this.
We're going to get rid of the income tax and replace him with taxes.
Well, it comes under the heading of, do you think we're idiots?
Income tax raises about $2.5 trillion.
The tariffs brought in $250 billion.
You have to go up tenfold.
And if you put them up tenfold, we're going to go into a deep recession, if not worse.
Why?
It's taxing.
So all of a sudden the tax cuts are usurped by these tax hikes.
What the president is not saying is that $250 billion raised.
It's a tax hike.
Costco is suing the administration right now.
If the Supreme Court comes out against the tariff, Costco wants their money back.
Apple paid $1.8 billion in tax.
Now, they're not going to ask it back.
Why?
Because Tim Cook was smart.
He bent the knee at the White House and kissed the butt and got exemptions.
In other words, picking and choosing winners, which is not a part of the conservative thought process.
Again, land of confusion, which takes me.
to the other part of the equation.
If I had his ear, Mr. President,
you must stop the over-promising,
or you're going to lose the mid-terms.
If you over-promise and under-deliver, you're screwed.
And what do they keep saying every day?
The golden age is coming.
What?
Affordability is a hoax.
That's what he said the other day.
people watch television.
Do you know what the numbers are on people living paycheck to paycheck?
I'll put one plus one equals two up next.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase.
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital1.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,
explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like,
Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at Spreker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the Gester's Edge.
With Gary Culpa.
So, for his duration, the worst president ever, Joe Biden was telling everybody, everything's great.
Terrific, fabulous.
Inflation is transitory.
the border secure, up yours, and go take a hike.
Well, what are we getting now?
Affordability's a hoax.
Now, let me talk to you about optics, ladies and gentlemen.
Number one, a ton of people live paycheck to paycheck because of affordability.
Because it costs a lot to buy homes, though the prices are coming down.
That's good to see.
But rent goes up, insurance is going up.
the tariffs had coffee going up and all kinds
why do you think Trump just took off the tariffs on a lot of food
oh that's right the tariffs are a tax on the food
duh
again don't treat us like we're stupid
so imagine these optics
you have the president out there
affordability is a hoax while people can't afford
and he's saying that
in a room
that is now spewed with gold.
And I don't use spewed.
I'm just using that as a word.
Decorated with a lot of gold.
They're going to lose the election next year.
Because I got news for you.
Over-promising.
I got news for you.
I'm sure he'll take off more tariffs.
That will help.
But affordability is a tough nut to crack
even as a president.
And when you talk golden age for who?
For your oval office that's smothered in gold now?
Optics.
And unfortunately, I think he has too many yes people not saying what I'm saying right now.
But guess what he's doing now?
He's now going out and he's going to tell everybody how great everything is and what he's going to do.
That's a problem.
He's going to start talking Golden Age.
That's a problem.
Optics.
I got to tell you, as bad as the Marxist party is,
if the election was today, they'd have the house.
And then watch the impeachment start within a day.
I wish I had his ear.
They're doing it all wrong.
Stop with the over-promising.
Say you're going to do the best you can, but it's not easy.
stop blaming Biden.
That's the other thing.
Just so you know, they decide in the last week,
just blame everything on Biden.
What month is it?
Oh, it's December.
When did he start?
Oh, it's 11 months already.
And what's the problem?
He said it would take a day, a week, a month.
He over-promised.
And how do I know all this?
I know a lot of MAGA people that wouldn't vote for him today.
Maga, not just people who vote Republican, but MAGA.
I know farmers that wouldn't vote for him today.
I know people that were neck-deep wouldn't vote for him.
Let's not forget the optics of the deportations also, which they really screwed up.
By the way, Obama was the king of deporting, but they did it calmly and quietly.
What are they doing?
You think Hispanics are going to be happy?
You walking into Miami warehouse and just grabbing people.
And then there's a newspaper story that they took a 75-year-old man that's been here since childhood,
and you're sending them to a country that's.
that he's never been in and breaking up his family and you think that's going to get votes?
You're nuts.
You're going to lose votes.
And I don't know if you've seen.
He's lost a lot of Hispanic votes.
And I'm not just talking about the election here, though it sounds.
I'm talking about economic policy, which is asinine, ass of 10, and ass 11.
And that is get rid of the freaking tariffs.
All of them stop saying to the.
end-all be-all. Don't tell anybody you're going to
soup it up and then do the opposite.
Stop changing your mind every three weeks where companies cannot
plan. Keep taxes low.
Get rid of onerous regulations.
Produce more oil to keep oil prices down.
Don't be too easy on the money spigot because that can create
inflation again and then look out below.
And then let us go to work.
How's that?
Because right now, and I'm trying to give him the benefit,
it's the land of confusion when I watch him every day.
And I watch every word.
It's mass confusion to hear somebody say,
you're going to get rid of income tax because of how much tariffs is coming in into the country.
Ain't happening and a lie.
So as Gary, a conservative economically, fiscally,
oh, don't forget they're running $2 trillion deficits too.
And that's just one person, me.
And I got news for you.
Many others are watching very closely, very closely.
And they would lose the election if it came today.
We'll be watching.
We'll keep you informed.
but they better get better at what they are doing on all fronts.
The marketing side, the optic side, the verbal side, the economic side.
Because if they don't, it's only going to get worse.
And yes, he's touting the market.
I would too.
markets can be fleeting, just trying to help.
You'll have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do, quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise they will be well.
Thanks for joining.
Have a good night.
Peace out.
Bye bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.
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