Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Tech/Semis/AI

Episode Date: June 12, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host, with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. Last I looked, it's June 12th. It's Monday. It's 2003.

Hope you're having a good day. As always, lots to cover, lots to do. Nothing but good. well, almost nothing but good. We'll cover each and every bit of it on this market because ladies and gentlemen, we're getting, I guess what we can call some rarefied air. Before we get going first, if you do not get this show in your city, this radio show will post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. And if you don't follow us on Twitter, go follow us. Or we press the button at garyk.com. You can email us. just be nice the update on the back I don't want to jinx it but I may have gone over the hump I've been on a big dose of steroids

yesterday was the last day and I was worried and today I've had no issues but I'll tell you what I do have I have a moon face you know when they say you do steroids you get moon face

I got a moon face you hear my voice it's changed my voice a little bit. It'll all go back to normal. And I'm just keeping fingers crossed. It did the job. What it supposedly does is gets rid of the inflammation that attacks the nerve. We'll see.

It's one day. I've been good all day. Yay. And I stopped counting, but I'm pretty sure we got around 850 emails. with your recommendations as well as your, you all got back problems. I didn't realize back problems were the norm out there. Wow. You all stay well.

All right. Artificial intelligence. All I can tell you, and I'm going to talk slowly so you get where I'm going. on May 25th, the Thursday, NVIDIA announces their numbers, monstrously ahead of expectations. You have an outlier move in the stock, gaps up from, I believe, 305, hits intraday 395, low of 366, closes at 380,

has one attempt to go over 400, hit 420 reversed, and has been sitting there trading flat for the last, I don't know, 13 days. But in the midst of this artificial intelligence has been this move. In the chips, others. And when NVIDIA says there's going to be a lot more where that came from, other chip stocks, we're not talking potato chips, get going. We've studied every market. We've studied every crash, flash crashes, which by the way, flash crashes have only happened a couple of times and there's no way of ever knowing that that's coming.

We studied the 87 crash. We've studied every major market top. we've studied every advance. It's not often you see off of the NVVIT, just so you know, listen carefully, this is explanatory. I don't even know if that's a word. On that day, the semiconductor index gaped up on the Nvidia move. The next day had a monstrous move on top of it. That was two Fridays ago.

And then a big gargantuan open last Tuesday, faded badly, pulled back, sat around, had a crappy Wednesday of last week. Friday opened hot, but reversed. And I'm thinking we're going to come in today and we're going to have more. of a pullback, a controlled, in thinking we're going higher. Not only did we not pull back, but we're seeing, I guess you can call it outlier moves. Let me give me an example of the most amazing one, if you ask me, is Broadcom. That moved along with NVIDIA, and on that big reversal Tuesday, it hit no. $921 and closed at $800.

Now, normally, that puts the fork in. Normally, that ends a stock's move. Well, Broadcom sat around for seven days, today up 50 bucks, into that big reversal to the downside. The best way for me to describe that for you, that's a lot of beef. that's what I call meaty. And you had another semiconductor, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 day-to-day.

The Dow played catch-up, and we'll get into that in a little bit. But wow. The only thing really left out today, oils, which we don't really care about. If oil prices are going down, that's good news. Gold, no biggie. financials. Yeah, they started off okay. Word down, just didn't get going.

But kids, where we've been telling you leadership was, housing, housing at another good day today. And then the best way I can put it, tech slash semis, slash software, slash anything having to do with artificial intelligence. And may I state for the record, when I wake up this morning, I see Salesforce.com

announce a big artificial intelligence called Einstein GPT. What a great name. And onward and upward. And you just had Adobe up 20 today, Broadcom up 50. for examples. And we were going to come in today in wine. You know why? Barons had a front cover of a bull that the market has to go higher.

And we hate that. We'd rather have Barons have a cover that the world is ending. But that's sentiment. Price first, sentiment second. And all we can tell you, it was a darn good day for tech. land. Apple finished, I believe, an all-time closing high. Not the high from the reversal last week, but closing high. That ain't going to hurt. And I've yet to do my scans. Market just closed, but I pretty sure know what I'm going to find. The semiconductors, we have these

little patterns. We have all kinds of pet names for them. One of them is the U pattern. A U. The semiconductors went up the flagpole, came down with a U, and now looks to be breaking above that higher the U.

That's what we're seeing there. And all I know, don't argue with it. Anything we have sold when higher. A couple things didn't And we may think about getting back in But we're just letting you know

Tech semis Software artificial intelligence Where it stops I don't know Does it stop tomorrow I don't know All I know is it did not stop today And the semiconductors look like they may want more That's all I can tell you Oracle

I'll get to Oracle in a second and much more. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. oracle's reporting earnings after the close somebody's so confident they upgraded it before earnings oracle reports earnings and after being up today six bucks is up another four bucks in the aftermarket make that three and a half what i'm looking for is is there a good number reason for this to go on. Because Oracle, all I can tell you, earnings growth,

year over year, and we're not making this up, up 8%. That is not gargantuan. That is not dynamic. Market doesn't give a crap. Market doesn't care. It's one of those moments,

and we'll see where it goes. Let me give you the short-term negatives while we're sitting on the market. The barons cover. Call buying, skyrocketing, all the extremes that we look at in sentiment pretty much hit. Don't need to get into the minutia. Notice the big word.

Don't need to get into the minutia of those sentiment indicators. So maybe we get a pullback? Not so sure. Why? Because chart patterns are chart patterns, and if the semiconductors break above range again, it's going to be tough to take it down right now. And now with Oracle, with their 8% earnings growth, it's up another $5 in the aftermarket after up up 6 today. And by the way, this is kind of sort of a low beta name. Low beta mean does not move much with the market. in the Dow, Boeing breaks out of a six-month trading range today.

Needs the stick. That's in the Dow. As we mentioned, Apple, so we're just letting you know. We're in one of those moments. And I have to tell you, wow, wow, wow. The only other earnings this week in tech, Adobe is on Thursday. I think maybe they can announce bankruptcy and the stock will still go. go up. So today's market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim

Roerback. One of the great market timers, no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com. Dow finished up 189. It was laboring all day. It just kept going and going and going and going, and really nothing was down. Interesting enough, early in the day, Microsoft actually hit, let's see was actually down a couple of bucks finished up five bucks that helped the Dow we mentioned Boeing Goldman Sachs up three home and depot up three and just nothing was down Apple almost up three American Express up to Visa up to S&P up 40 NASDA 202 NASDAQ 1055 the semiconductor index up 116 And what have we told you about the semiconductors?

They lead markets up and down. And I would have told you flat out I wouldn't have bet on today. I did not like the way last week finished. Didn't change my game plan. But I actually thought today there'll be some more sitting around a little bit and, uh-uh. Not a lick. Not a lick. And we'll see where Oracle finishes in the aftermark.

That said, it's going to remain narrow. It's going to remain narrow. You had some other movers in other areas today. You had some movers of note. We're just letting you know it's going to remain narrow. And we're also going to let you know, so what? nobody ever said narrow was bad as long as things stick there's still plenty being left in the wake so what so that's the story we're reporting to you the news and if the semis go topside again and

boy it sure feels like it there's more again the one issue Very simple. Sentiment is woof. Advanced declines? Not that good. 2118 on the New York, 2517 on the NASDAQ. Not good.

Narrow. That's all. Narrow. But the things that are moving, that was a whistle. And we'll be here every day to go through it. Again, I have yet to scan. The other good news.

And it's not talked about a lot. You know, everybody's wondering about inflation numbers coming out in the next couple of days. We said on this show and on TV, I got to tell you, we get credit for nothing. On TV a year ago, we said inflation had topped, and they're still talking inflation. Oil prices are back at yearly lows again, in spite of OPEC. That is huge for the economy. Every 10 cent drop in gas prices is $10 billion in the pocket of the consumers over a one-year period. And this thing's been drifting lower all year.

The recession and depression talk. Remember what we've said to you. If the job market stays in shape, there's no chance. If it loses the job market, trouble. So far the job market. market pretty darn good. Ultimately, you know where we think we're going. The massive debt and deficits. But who knows when? We don't time that out. So what do we say last week? Make sure you do not listen to the boo birds. I promise you they're out there. Up next. This, that, and the

other thing and whatever else. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

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The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I have to tell you, you know, we talk on a personal note here also. As you know, I said, it may be 900 emails we got from everyone out there, which is a lot of

emails to get about your own back problems and what you think, what you're recommending without recommending. And over the weekend, I didn't realize how many people are a afflicted with back issues. I've always had this one muscle in the back left corner from my tennis days that would every now and then, and this is exactly where it hit. And if you look at my MRI, you can see, they show you where the nerve did this and the information. And the the nurse practitioner said to me, you can't guarantee, take this a few weeks. Once the inflammation is gone. It should relieve it. We don't see anything else in the picture. And who knows? Maybe I'm good at this point. I've had a great day. I've had no issues whatsoever.

And I can tell you, I took prednisone. And as I said, I got moon face. My face is like a balloon right now. my voice is a little bit different and they gave me this flexerol and let me tell you that sucker puts you to sleep I wake up like uh-huh anyway so I did some studying this weekend on this and I'm just letting you know that you know you are a product of your experiences but your choices there's not going to be a day that goes by. Once I know this is really that I don't stretch, I'm one of these guys that's like a two by four. When I was in college, I played college high school tennis.

I was in juniors in Florida. I was like top 10, top 20 in the state. I played nationals one year, lost in the first round. I was a decent college tennis player. I played the underling circuit after college when 0-8 lost to a guy named Beaver. I swear his name was Beaver, his first name, and I realized that was telling me something. I used to have to stretch an hour before and an hour after. That's how limber I am.

I promise myself, once this is over, I am going to be stretching like a madman, make sure this never happens again. and you know I stay in pretty good shape, I'm doubling the effort. So you all think about the same thing. And I've been reading the stories about what causes bad backs. And yeah, if you don't have a good, if you have a little too much overhang in the abdomen, that'll do it if bad posture, the whole works. So one thing I do, when I learned something, I go neck deep.

I can't believe the percentage of people that have back problems. I had no idea. I had no idea. And one of my best buddies, we call him Bovey. I remember he used to have this, he had a magazine many years ago, Back Pain magazine. And I remember back then what was said. So it all reminded me.

So you all take care of yourself, stay in shape, because I got to tell you. We're all getting older. It doesn't get easier. I promise you. That's a good stretch. By the way, I'm stealing right now. Okay.

Thanks for indulging me with my backstory. But 900 emails. That's pretty much close to the most we've ever got on a subject that I brought up here. I think I mentioned guns one time and we got a thousand. You guys are really passionate. and on the gun thing. Okay. How is it possible this is happening?

That's a question I've been getting. Do I think it's 1999-ish? Well, I can tell you this. With Broadcom, it's sure starting to look like it. What drives it? Somebody paying a higher price. Who's driving it? As I state, it ain't Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob.

When you look at volume that we're seeing in some of the names, it's not all. And I do believe right now, and maybe it's going to be another bubble. The market's making a bet on artificial intelligence driving big semiconductor business. And it's drawing in these software stocks to boot. It's the best way I can explain it to you. Where it stops, I just don't know. My worry, I don't care what anybody says. If you're growing single digits, your stock shouldn't go up 50% in weeks.

I'm just given an example. Unless whatever's happening is going to reaccelerate things leaps and downs. Anything I have sold has gone higher except for two. names and I don't want to get into names I don't want to drive you up a wall actually I don't want to drive me up a wall but I can tell you this again when you have a chance tonight go look at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index if it breaks out above this little you and you can see the little you there's going to be more which takes me back to the boo birds so listen up in 1999. I remember, and I didn't even know what the hell I was doing back then, but I owned the stock PMC Sierra, and I believe it went up fourfold.

I caught the last climax run in Qualcomm. It went up like 90% in a day and a half, I believe. I had Oracle at that time. It gapped up, sat around, and then went up like four or fivefold. The last few stocks I owned, just so you know, March of 2000 is when things top, but there were a few things that worked until Labor Day when Intel warned. I ended up by, I think I mentioned this, Nortel, Lucent. man a couple of others and all I know that whole year

while things were going insane people were talking it down leaps and bounds every day can't be can't be and ultimately they were right and we all knew they were right because bubbles always end but what we have to be smart about here if this continues

is get them and ride them. And if they decide to do what we call climactic moves, and if you don't know what a climactic move is, I'm going to give you a big one. Go look at Tilray one of those marijuana stocks back in 18. It did it twice, actually, and in 2021. That's what climactic moves look like.

They are fruitful. We are in no way saying the same thing. thing happens, we just let you know we would know when themes show up. And sometimes it gets crazy. We'll see. Don't know. We'll be here every day to guide ourselves through this as well as you. And where it stops, don't know. By the way, Tillray, February 21. A climactic move just looks like a straight up needle and straight right back down. And again, we're not saying the same thing is going to happen. But I must tell you, it sure look like you're going to have one in Broadcom off of that big reversal, and now it's on its way again. So stay tuned. And don't put us in

any category. We'll take it day by day. Up next, we'll think of something. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.

Like, I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication.

We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. With the Venmo debit card, a taco in one hand, and ordering a ride in the other means you're stacking your rewards. Nice. Get up to 5% cash back with Venmo stash on your favorite brands when you pay with your Venmo debit card.

From takeout to ride shares, entertainment and more. Pick a bundle with your go-tos and start earning cash back at those brands. More stash, get more cash. Venmo Stash bundle terms and exclusions apply. See terms at Venmo.combe slash stash terms. Max $100 cash back per month. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong.

Healthy Choice Simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The tray-and-tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections. Like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers, grilled chicken and broccoli alfredo. It's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy choice simply steamers. What having it all tastes like. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Culper. All right, now that we've done a lot of the market, by the way, I've got to mention this again. Oil prices at yearly lows.

That is really good news. And I believe there's a PPI and a CPI today, maybe tomorrow. I'm not even really paying attention to all that crap right now. I am paying attention, laser focused on the market at this point in time. All right. So remember what we told you. Ex-president got indicted. And here's what we got this weekend.

You ready? the left says he's guilty he's the antichrist what I'm amazed at what do you teach your kids when you make a mistake you what

recognize it and try not to repeat it not only did the ex-president repeat mistakes but everybody who surrounds them the same thing

I don't think anybody realizes. He's up, you know what's Creek without a paddle here. There is not going to be a defense that it should have happened to somebody else. And it should have. We agree 1,000 percent. They led Hillary Clinton off. Destroy emails that were subpoenaed. Destroy computers?

Bleach bit? Listen, we're a thousand percent. sent sure of that. The fix was in. We agree. Based on that, what are you doing to Trump? Joe Biden. Of course he's the big guy.

Of course he was colluding with his son. You know how you know? Because the media's blacked it out. We know that. But you also know as the ex-president, they're out to get you.

You knew that. They impeached you a second time for a phone call. And what do you do? You're on tape. You're on video. Your attorneys no longer have attorney client privilege, and they had to tell the truth under oath. And now what the story is,

Trump doesn't have a defense. Except if he wins the presidency again before they go to court, and he pardons himself. Think about all that. That's where we're at. The fix is in. If this was a Democrat, no way they're even investigating this.

But the ex-President Trump come and get me. And they did. He opened himself up to be got. And I'm stunned. These people are supposed to be smart. They've been complaining for years about the fix being in. And what did they do? Stupid. And let me be clear. He is guilty of what he did with these documents. It looks like obstruction also.

And let me repeat, if it was a Democrat, it wouldn't even be investigated. This slow walking Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, anybody else. It's stunning to watch. That's all I've got to say. And for all you Trumpians, I respect the hell out of you for sticking with them. I left them a long time ago. It's going to be an interesting next 14 months. I believe he goes to the courthouse tomorrow and we'll see what happened. Oh, by the way, the big lie is Joe Biden has nothing to do with this. Oh, yeah, he has nothing to do with it, didn't speak to the Justice Department, didn't speak to the Attorney General, it's all them.

No, I have nothing to do with it. They want you to believe that. By the way, what does this all have to do with your money? And the economy? Oh, they're the ones running it. These people don't cross them. It's all I can say. As you can see, I'm in nobody's camp.

I can't stand any of them. And I am amazed. advisors to the ex-president didn't kick them in that area with all this going on. Again, the next 14 months, I can't imagine. But back on the markets, all I can tell you is wow. We're at a little bit of an outlier moment. For new stuff, I am just looking for secondary buy points. and they didn't really give much today.

I'm watching things that have gaped up and now sitting and will break above range. We'll see. If we get them, we'll jump. Oracle, up a few in the after market after being up today on 8% earnings growth. That's less earnings growth than things like Procter and Gamble, but it's in year. And we'll see what happens next.

And we'll keep on top. with no bias, agenda, or ulterior motive, and hopefully without a bad back. By the way, I'll be on with Liz Clayman tomorrow 3 p.m. hour. You have a great evening. Drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better, I promise. Thanks for joining us. And again, my heartfelt appreciation for all. of you that emailed with recommendations and your own what you're dealing with. Peace out all. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Hi, this is Danielle Robey, the host of Bookmarked by Reese's Book Club, a podcast by Hello Sunshine and IHeart Podcasts. I'm partnering with

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