Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Teflon market [03.12.2024]
Episode Date: March 12, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk
Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colp. I'm your host.
A thanks of playing with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is Tuesday, March 12th, 2004. Hope you're having a very good day.
Lots to cover, as always.
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Okay.
Number one.
On Friday, we had this massive, massive gargantuan.
reversal to the downside of some of the very important technology names.
Yesterday, they followed through. Not all, some gave the middle finger back to Friday.
Again, not all, some. But most importantly, the market. You know, they have these words for the market, Teflon.
where nothing could go wrong?
Well, we're in one.
Let me give you something to chew on, the S&P 500.
So, full and fair disclosure,
we went through a pretty darn good correction
from July to end of October,
where we told you to avoid 80% of the market.
on November 1st, we had what is known as this follow-through day, a potential confirmation
day that could turn the market up.
And we've given you the definition of all that.
It's just the characteristic that pretty much always shows up on every rally slash bull phase,
but does not work every time.
we didn't buy that day.
The charts was still a mess.
We were patient.
And what happened was, after that day, we had another day or two of Rally, and then we sat.
On November 14th, there was an inflation number, and the market had this big gap to the upside.
the bond market, the yields were crushed to the downside.
That was the day we initiated our, I'm not going to tell you, a pretty sizable position in the S&P.
And that's how we particularly start.
Since that day, you know how we talk moving averages?
And we use three.
And don't ask me why they just work.
The 50-day moving average is the most important, but if the market's really strong,
it holds what we call the 21 day, not the 20, the 21 day.
This is what we were taught.
And all the 21-day moving averages, as you take the last 21 days, add up the closes,
divide by 21, you get a smoothed outline versus the wiggles and squiggles every day.
And of course, the 50-day, you do 50 days.
And then there's the big long-term 200-day move.
average. Since that breakout, it wasn't even a breakout, since that day on the gap when we bought,
we've had 17 weeks. On January 4th, the SPY represents the S&P, finished a smidge below the 21 day,
but we weren't selling because it's just very small below. The 5th of January, a smidge below.
We were good.
The 8th of January was NVIDIA Day, and you had a strong day in the market, and since then,
we had one close, again, by just a wee bit below the 21 day on January 17th.
So three days out of 17 weeks of trading.
And when we say a little bit below, we mean a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny.
and on the 17th it was a reversal day.
So it was worse during the day, but showed defense.
17 weeks of me not even having to think about
selling the S&P 500,
off the 21-day moving average?
What?
The NASDAQ 100, a little bit different
because on those weak days,
they finished
decently below the
21 day where if I owned
them I could have possibly sold
but only
three days
in 17 weeks
the NASDAQ 100
and remember the 50
day is usually what's in play
not the 21
the Dow
same thing
though two out of the last five days
finished below
but yesterday was
reversal, but for 17 weeks, you've had the big indices just cooperating. Not the small indices,
the big indices. And what is that enabled to do? Well, guess how this works? As price moves higher,
the moving average accounts for the higher prices. And right now, the 21-day moving average
includes the last 21 days before that is gone. So the 21 day moving average line is just constantly
moving up quietly, surely, and every visit by price in the S&P gets bought. And what does that also do
for us? Oh, the best part about it. The best part about it is we have a definable support area
knowing if 17 weeks of holding a certain moving average, if it breaks, that is a trend break.
Guess what we do?
Bye-bye.
Or we can make the decision, because we're up so much, of letting it go down to the normal, the 50 day.
Again, the normality in a bull market is riding the 50 day, not the 21.
That's how good the S&P has been.
Of course, the Russell 2000 sucks compared to it.
Completely.
So just letting you know that's going on
and you had some distribution on Friday
and the market just shrugged that sucker off so far.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
I've yet to do scans, but good stuff.
And what happened today was Oracle
and had an earnings announcement yesterday.
They finished up 11% today.
You know what they did in their earnings announcement?
A-I-A-I-A-I-O.
We're going to be announcing contracts with NVIDIA
next week at their confab.
NVIDIA, which was under severe pressure for two days,
up, let's see, 7% today.
And as usual, with its Momo,
it's up another five bucks in the aftermarket.
It's back into the middle of that nasty reversal day on Friday.
Amazingly so.
Others not.
Others definitely weaker than Nvidia.
But that is the head honcho top dog big cheese.
And boy oh boy.
All it took was an announcement.
A-I-A-I-A-I-A-I-A-I-A-I-A-I.
and I must tell you, there are certain rules, certain characteristics we follow.
But you have to know what kind of market you're in.
Example, normally when you get one of these big, vicious, high-volume reversals to the downside,
that's it. You're done.
For now.
You can get going again eventually, but that's it. You're done for now.
I could tell you the bitcoins, the crypto, did they?
that seven days ago. Within three days, it shrugged it off. I think Nvidia's got a shot to just
shrug it off. Others not. But it sure looks like it. In that noise was Microsoft. You think
that's important? Microsoft was up 10 bucks today. Up next. We'll get to that up next. And much
more. And then later, we'll whine and complain. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
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So it was one of those days, but there are other things going on, no doubt.
Microsoft was in that news.
Microsoft, I can tell you, is now poised.
Let's see.
One, two, three, four, five, six.
It's been in seven weeks of flat range.
Didn't act well on its earnings report, but not once.
Broke the 50-day moving average.
Yes, that important point.
And now a move above, well, the first spot is 41735, but really the highest about 42082.
A break above will be another breakout for Microsoft.
A slower mover, but traded well today.
Amazon, these are the big guys, holding the 21-day moving average.
That's turned into slow motion also.
But now Oracle had the big gap today.
as mentioned, up 11%.
Back near the highs, or right at the highs of June and September.
If it can take that out, then you can add Oracle to it.
Of course, Apple and Tesla, no go.
Google on the weak side.
But you know, it's perking up again because of Oracle, Adobe.
Back up 17 bucks today.
held the long-term 200-day moving average,
but it doesn't matter because they report in two days.
But overall, just a good day.
There was an inflation number that shouldn't have been friendly,
and the bond market was not friendly today,
and the market could care less with a proviso.
The NASDAQ was up 246 today.
Advanced declines were 1886 up 2211 down.
What does that mean?
big capness, that's a pitiful advanced decline for a NASDAQ up 246 because the money was going into
the big capness.
I just made up a word.
And by the way, Costco was part of that.
It's top 10.
Costco was up 21 today after dropping 80 points almost on its earnings.
So that bounced up a little bit today.
So I really have not much to complain.
Except I did a little selling yesterday and I'm pissed off.
After getting huge gains and I got to figure out if that's it, if that's all, how to jump back in.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Dow is up 235 in spite of Boeing down 8 and change.
I'll get to that in a second.
But Microsoft's in the Dow was up 10.5.
3M new CEO.
You know the market doesn't like you when a new CEO comes in and a dead stock rallies up 5%.
Visa, nice.
Amazon in the Dow now, nice.
But let's talk Boeing.
Holy crap.
So I don't know if you heard this story, but one of the guys who testified against Boeing committed suicide.
No, I don't think it's a Jeffrey Epstein.
You know Jeffrey Epstein was murdered, right?
you know you were scammed, right?
So I don't think that's one of these things.
What? You don't think Jeffrey Epstein was murdered?
Just because he was the most important prisoner in the country
and the guards decided to leave?
And the video cameras did not work.
And Dr. Baden, the number one coroner in the country,
said that all the signs were of murder.
but they came to the conclusion.
It wasn't that it was suicide?
No, sure.
Just because a ton of mucky mucks and powerful people from Clinton on down
who visited the pedophiles island and airline.
No, everything's good there.
Sure.
But I digress.
This guy committed suicide.
and now we're finding out they do inspections
and we are finding out that the inspectors found
all kinds of freaking violations at the Boeing
tons of them have you been reading this
it's the weirdest crap I've ever seen
just you know Boeing
they make airplanes that go up in the air
and we're being told that they
kind disorder or maybe more than kind disorder
sucked
and some of the things I'm reading about what they're being accused of.
My goodness, gracious.
And as I said to you, I just think they're too close with the government.
I don't know if they give money to politicians and not.
I have no clue.
No clue.
But man, oh man, go read it.
Now United Airlines has come out and said, told Boeing to stop building the 737 max for them.
Southwest Airlines came out and said something about their numbers because of deliveries from the Boeing jets because it's slowed down or stopped or whatever.
So this guy John Barnett, who committed suicide whistleblower, said that he warned that Boeing's planes were being put in the air too soon and that there's all kinds of whatever.
I ain't going to invest in Boeing stock.
It's all I know.
Southwest Airlines stock was blasted today for 15%.
Big breakdown and it affected other airlines.
We don't own any airlines.
And I've never understood the industry either, the pricing.
But I got it all wrong too.
The day they announced they were going to charge for baggage,
I was on this show telling you,
no way passengers are going to put up with that.
They make billions off of it.
your bags now. They make billions off of it. And seats, billions off of it. I'm taking my son to the
masters in a few weeks. So he's flying from New York to Atlanta and then we're going to drive over to
Augusta on the Saturday. And I'm flying up to Atlanta. So I was checking his flights. And I went to do a seat.
So the flight for him one way was 175.
To buy a seat was 110.
So I put him in the back of the plane for free.
Nothing wrong with the back of the plane, right?
Seriously, they wanted 110 bucks for a seat.
Not even in first class.
So I just had to do a little Boeing.
That's how we stay away from bad stocks.
That's a bad company now.
I don't care what anybody says.
I'd say it to the CEO.
And I urge you read up about this stuff.
Passengers have lucked out, and they have lucked out at this point in time, if he asked me.
They had more issues, another plane.
Something happened in Australia.
Up next, what else in these markets?
Thanks for being here.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script.
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where,
oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,
a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
All right, quick quiz for the hiring managers out there.
What's worse?
Being understaffed or being poorly staffed?
Well, that's a trick question,
because both are recipes for chaos.
Either way, just say to yourself,
this is a job for indeed sponsored jobs.
You'll get matched with candidates
that meet the skills, certifications,
and everything else you're looking for.
Or go a different way
and get no.
No traction.
Seriously, sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95% more likely to report a higher than non-sponsored jobs.
It really is a no-brainer.
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The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum.
It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to
investors edge. Thanks for being with us today. When you have a chance, you should really put it
into place the things we tell you on this show because we're told that you can't time the market.
And that's terrific. God bless these people. While we're sitting here telling you, hey, the S&P has been
riding up this 21-day moving average, and we know if it breaks it, that'll be the major sign for us
to maybe at least sell some. But what's the opposite of that? And as we said also, the 50-day moving
average, the roadmap is simple. Price ascends along a rising 50-day moving average, and if it's
even stronger the 21 day.
What's the opposite?
Price descends below the moving average,
while the moving average is descending,
not ascending, the bear market.
And just a little hint,
we're giving you a little lesson here.
When you have a chance tonight,
go look at the SPY.
Go look at the QQQ.
And if you can, put in a 21-day moving average.
If you can't, there should be a 50-day on there.
And you will notice ascension while the moving average is ascending.
Next, go look at the S-H, which is the inverse S&P.
And you will notice the exact opposite from April to August.
July, August, yeah, and then the market went down, so it got back above for a little bit,
but then tanked again in November when the market bottomed.
And since November, writing it right down.
So, hmm, if you can't time the market, how are we seeing the market in pictures that looks so well,
And we know now for a fact, when things turn, the SH, which is the inverse, we'll get back above the 50 day and start riding and ascending along it while the SPY does the opposite.
And of course, there's also the PSQ, which is the NASDAQ, inverse.
This is simple.
And when somebody tells me, you can't time the market, I laugh my arse off.
Actually, I don't say a word.
Because the less people that know what we do, the better.
And by the way, it still ain't easy.
But we are of heavy confidence.
And we did it from July, to October, we were out.
Market was getting mashed.
In 22, we were out.
It was easy.
Why?
The roadmap.
So I just was bringing it up today,
because I was just looking at him like, wow,
I haven't even had to think about the S&P.
Not once.
Even on the down days,
I'd look at it and say,
okay, no biggie.
On Friday with that crappy reversal,
I said, yeah, it looks fine.
And just remember, the S&P is inclusive
of other things besides technology.
What else happened today?
Gold was finally weak.
Needed to pull back.
China.
we have been kind of warning you that it was acting better.
And you know what China's doing this second?
Instead of descending along of declining 50-day moving average,
for the last three weeks, it is above the 50-day moving average.
And now that 50-day moving average instead of descending is flattening out.
Why would it flatten out now?
Because you now have three weeks of price above.
So 10 weeks ago, 9, 8, 7, those higher, those prices are gone, and now it gets better.
Now, we don't know if it's going to last, but that's how things bottom.
That's the physicality.
That's the characteristics.
That's the, oh, we can't time the market.
We love those people.
So just letting you know.
we got emails today big time on
Oracle and Vindia
all I can tell you is Oracle gapped up
it's back at the old highs and it is on notice for us
it really stalled all day today
it didn't do anything
and Vida bounced back 60 bucks today
on they were mentioned 100 times
overnight
after tanking for two days
and as you know we took
profits in the 70s
but if it's going to get going
again. I'm going to get back on that horse quickly. We'll see. Still got to deal with that big
ugly reversal on Friday. By the way, another characteristic that usually works, but we have one of
these, I guess you can call it outlier markets. An outlier means things that don't usually
happen often. Outlier. Notice the big word from your handsome and buffed toast.
Foreign markets acting fine.
I'm noticing foreign banks.
Deutsche Bank, DB, Germany.
Boom.
Big breakout today on volume.
Noticing that.
Barclays, British, new highs.
See, getting a little bit of that.
Keep in mind, Barclays, oh, yeah, I was right.
I'm going back to the year 2007.
The high was 58.
It's now nine.
Deutsche Bank, the highs back in 2007 was 121, it's 15.
But they're doing better right now.
Emerging markets better with China.
You know, that's China.
And there's your story.
Oh, and the semis were back up 100 today off of the Nvidia thing.
Still ridiculously extended to the upside.
And I have to tell you,
I thought there's more to the downside to go.
After today, not so sure.
Not so sure.
That Nvidia gets followed and it finished well.
The one flaw, I don't like them.
I'm not going to use it.
The one issue, you had monstrous volume on Friday.
You had no volume today versus Friday.
What else I got for you?
Well, my New York football giants, they would not sign Sequin Barkley.
He's headed to the Eagles.
I am P-Oed, but, you know, running backs at a certain age start heading down.
So I kind of sort of get it, but to the Eagles, I am very much not happy about that.
My Giants, they picked up some good players, though.
They picked up some All-Star players.
Defense of End, that's good news.
Got a few months for football season.
starting up real soon is baseball season to where I will have my usual Mets disappointment.
Welcome to my world.
Isn't amazing New York teams cannot win championships?
By the way, the Baltimore Ravens signed Derek Henry.
And I think he's still in good shape, even though he's older.
Anyway, the jello's moving on the plate in football.
And we're heading into March Madness very soon.
where everybody's going to do their little, whatever that thing's called.
I really have not much to add except market in shape.
Big capness.
Small caps, I must tell you, I thought the IWM, the Russell 2000, would have been better by now.
It just ain't.
So it remains big cap.
And that was today.
And let me repeat.
NASDAQ up 246.
NASDAQ advanced declines.
1886 up 2211 down.
I'd usually say to you that's a warning.
I think I'm tired of saying to you it's a warning.
But yeah, too many bad advance declines day is not a good thing versus the market,
but we'll just stay with the big capness.
Up next.
Hey, what else is happening in the world?
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. J. Goodman, host of Beyond the Script.
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where,
oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS.
A podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
All right, quick quiz for the hiring managers out there.
What's worse?
Being understaffed or being poorly staffed?
Well, that's a trick question, because both are recipes for chaos.
Either way, just say to yourself,
this is a job for indeed sponsored jobs.
You'll get matched with candidates that meet the skills,
certifications, and everything else you're looking for.
Or go a different way and get nosed.
No traction.
Seriously, sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95% more likely to report a hire
than non-sponsored jobs.
It really is a no-brainer.
Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes.
Less stress, less time.
More results.
When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs.
And listeners of this show will get a $75-sponsored job credit to help your job get the premium
status it deserves at Indeed.com slash.
podcast. Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply.
Need to hire? This is a job for Indeed's sponsored jobs. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours.
Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000
help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star
trust pilot reviews. On-deck delivers funding you can
count on. Apply in minutes at on deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan
may be issued by on deck or Celtic bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and
amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to what are we waiting for? Well, what are you
waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge with Gary Culpa.
Hey, in the news. Well, I did enough yesterday.
on that $7.3 trillion
nonsense. It won't pass,
but I'm hoping the Republicans
grow a pair and just say to
Biden, here's the deal. You already
raised spending like crazy to
6.5 trillion last year? That's
where it's sticking. We'll see.
In the news,
Oakland, as you know we've been
discussing Oakland, San Francisco,
Portland,
other cities that are
under Washington, D.C.
I told you this, right? Washington.
D.C. actually has alerts sent out to the citizens about how to prevent carjackings because
there's been so many. Anyway, in Oakland, let's add to the misery, Taco Bell. Locations in Oakland
are now shutting all their indoor dining and it's only going to go cashless and drive-thrus
because of robberies. They can't take it. Yet this is.
The same people is still running the joint.
San Fran, more leaving.
And as we stated to you, not one person in the media sits down Pelosi,
and the first question should be since it's our district.
What are you doing about your district and all the problems?
They will not ask because they're a bunch of words and afraid to lose their spot.
And they know how Pelosi's powerful and she'll tell all her friends never to speak to that person again.
welcome to our great strong media establishment they suck and the citizens of san franc should be sick
their stomach on a brighter note because we're unbiased there has been some technology companies
tiptoeing back into san fran downtown there has been it's just everything else is shutting down
I mean store after store after store, just get me the hell out of here.
In the news, you know, I was asked by quite a few people to discuss the Oscars, but I didn't.
But I do want to mention a couple of things.
They had this guy who did a Holocaust movie and he came out and said some stupid crap.
He's Jewish too.
And a little bit of it was misinterpreted, but I'm just so sick and tired of these people.
just make sure you know we were covering Israel every day and we stop they still have 130 hostages a bunch of the hostages were murdered
I won't even describe what they did to the women you can go look it up you can check out the videos
and Israel's supposed to do what not go after the terrorists that are in hiding and the other thing
that makes me ill, the media, you know, that sucking media, they keep quoting the Hamas
health ministry on how many people are dead in Gaza. Imagine, let's quote the people that just
murdered, raped, blew up, burned, sodomized, did unspeakable stuff that I won't even say here
to people and their bodies,
holding hostages from infants to grandmas,
and let's believe them about how many you're dead,
up yours, media, and the health ministry.
And then these idiots, these celebrities,
are wearing these little badges,
how stupid they are of bloody hands,
and they don't even have an idea what that represents.
It was synonymous with this 2,000 lynching of two Israelis,
these dumbasses, celebrities.
You know what?
I can't blame them for thinking that you know what don't stink.
They're making bazillions of dollars and they're loved by so many.
I'd look at them straight in the face and tell them to go screw.
That's my Oscars for it.
you. How's that? I heard John Sina was like kind of almost naked and all that crap.
Deficit spending is on track to hit nearly 28% of GDP by 2050. Federal revenue will be just 19%.
At the current pace, the U.S. deficit for the fiscal year were cost $3 trillion, nearly doubling
to $1.6 trillion of last year. And it was a lot more than that. Over the last 100 days, total U.S. debt is up a whopping $1 trillion.
an average of $10 billion per day.
What more do I need to tell you about that?
That's the criminals in D.C.
Oh, I think they should be arrested for it.
No, really, I do.
Okay, they can't arrest them.
I believe the Republicans should impeach Joe Biden for his deficits.
But they won't, you know why?
Because they love deficits too.
When they get in power, they'll do the same thing.
And Joe Biden, the great Madoff scam.
He's worse than Madoff.
a lot worse than made off.
The amount?
A lot worse.
We're never going to have this money back.
We're never going to fix the debt.
I would impeach him.
I would put articles of impeachment if I was in the house right now
and just on this.
And at least it'll get it out there.
At the very least, it'll get it out there
what this guy's doing.
And I repeat something.
And this is the most important part of my equation.
Let's hope
and pray that the bond market doesn't wake up one day. Remember, we're not saying it is, and maybe it doesn't
matter. Let's just hope one day the bond market does not wake up and say, how much debt, and then
they sell it off and yields skyrocket. There goes the economy, there goes the market, there goes
your jobs. And why do I say that? Because it's very simple. Economics 101 states, the more debt there is,
the more investors who are lending will demand a higher yield.
And in case you don't know, and I use certain words, this is, Trump was horrible with the debt and deficits.
Obama was horrible with the debt and deficits.
Bush was horrible with the debt and deficits.
This guy makes all three look like Pikers.
He's got to be stopped.
That's not a physical thing.
His policies.
Until tomorrow, you have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do.
It's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
TV tomorrow, I'm not sure.
I rove around on Wednesdays.
But until tomorrow, same time for radio.
Peace out.
All.
Thanks for joining us.
Appreciate your time.
Bye, bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary Kade.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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