Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Teflon market...so far! [02.19.2025]

Episode Date: February 19, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Wednesday. It's February 19th.

It's 2025. Hope you're having a good day. This is a little bit of the cold edition of Investors Edge. This is what happens when you fly. up to New York every week and it's 15 degrees and rainy and snowy and then back to Florida and it's 70 degrees but I'm taking care of myself. Hey hope you having a good day in case you don't know this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We do the markets, the economy, the doge moment. Why? Because we have been one of the loudest voices on what government has been doing,

how they've been thieving and stealing from us throughout the years. And boy, are we five, finding out how bad they are. We will do your industry, your job, the debt, and the deficits. And anything that else comes to mind right now with a little bit of earning season, there's a lot of jello moving on the plate. And I got to tell you, today, the indices finished up. But boy, there are a lot of blowups today in the market. You've got to just be on your game. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garykk.com. We'll post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us at X, you should. And if you like to email us, all you got to do is be nice. It's pretty simple. Okay, for starters, Dow's up 71 near the high

of the day. S&P up 14 near the high of the day. The NASDAQ up 15 wasn't the high of the day. I think we're up 50 at one time. The NASDAQ 100 up 11. The SOX was up 17. The SOX was up 61 semiconductors was up better but came down transports got squashed for 257 small caps and midcaps can't find the friend they smoked the housing stocks

again today told brothers on bad numbers and it was just a how do I put this an icky day for a lot of areas economically sensitive a lot of the retail I mentioned the transports

a bunch of the restaurants that were trying to perk up yesterday, got whacked today, wing stopped down 41. You finally had a little bit of a weekday in the big banks, but not so bad. And then you had blowups. You had blowups out of nowhere, based on some news. The Fed came out with their minutes and said this, that,

and the other thing, and I won't even repeat what they said, because they don't matter. They say they control the economy. They control nothing, and we don't care about them unless they're printing to $9 trillion bucks, creating massive inflation, and then missing the whole move. But there are other stories that I just want to cover real quickly. That is of note. That, first off, more hostages being released, but part of that is the Beban.

family where they kidnapped a nine-month-old baby, they're being returned deceased. And I'm still watching these scumbags praising Hamas. They were attacking Jews in Brooklyn yesterday. You have the governor of New York, the governor of New York stating, oh, they were anti-Semitic talk. No, they were trying to beat the Jews up. They were trying to run them over. They had knives out. The governor, New York sucks. The media sucks. I turn on the TV this morning waiting for them to even report on what happened in Brooklyn to Jewish people. Imagine if this was the KKK, going after blacks or Hispanics. But Jews.

not a story. We all know that. So we're going to keep fighting the good fight. It's just heartbreak. And by the way, for anyone that's in the crosshairs of racism and violence. But man, oh man, the anti-Semitism from the college campuses and these ass clown professors and the people running the colleges, there's a long list. A long list. Okay. As you know, we segue. The Doge moment.

It's time. And we do this because we don't believe Doge was created because of Elon Musk and Donald Trump. It was created because of the last 25 years of no accountability and just serious corruption to where with 37 trillion of debt and two trillion. dollar deficits plus and we're kind of running rate this year of three trillion and of course the media is bringing people on to complain about somebody trying to do something about it instead of praising the people that are doing something about it so here's the latest we're finding out I'm not going to give out the ages because I think it's going to be a moving target. But have you read about the Social Security?

Have you read about how many people are still on the roles of Social Security? And at what ages? And the ones that are dead? Now, there's talk, well, they're not getting any Social Security. But if you're on the Social Security roles, there's other things you potentially get. this is your government run amok. Go read up. There was one person on the rolls that would be 360 years old, I believe.

I digress. Let us not forget, as I have stated to you, it should be tough to get government money. You should be vetted. You should have to fill out applications. You should have to do interviews. And what we have found out, it was just a free-for-all. And we're going to find out it's friends and relatives and donors and politicians getting all this money.

If they really did a deep dive and accounted for this money, God only knows. My goodness gracious, the things that we have said to you, the list we have given you. If it wasn't so sad and be laughable, like the Social Security Administration audit, 71.8 billion in improper payments they have found. Only 71.8 billion. You want me to repeat that? 71.8 billion. How about this one?

Doge finds nearly 40 billion of spending on government-issued credit cards. Now, I believe government people, should have credit cards. 40 billion. 40 billion. 40 billion. They just continue to show they don't give a crap about us.

Nothing's ever accounted for. And I gather a lot of people are scared out of their wits. The Department of Education is granted more than 200 million to comprehensive centers. What the heck is that? that? Oh, and then you read the fine print. One-sided ideologies. I gather you know what cited ideologies. Just 200 million. Remember what we've told you. They've turned 10 billion into a footnote, into a footnote. By the way, total of 4.6 million government credit cards. Four point six million

government credit cards. We'll keep listing all this as it comes out, but the game is up and the louder the people are opposing it, the more I have to question whether they were a part of it. Simple as that. We cannot continue this trajectory. I am so happy to see what they're doing. I will call them out if they do stupid.

But as of right now, I love what I am seeing. That is your Doge Minute or the Doge Minute, the Doge Moment, will have a lot more on a daily basis because, oh, it's going to come out. On that note, in the middle of the day today, it was announced by the president that he's looking to cut the Pentagon. 8% a year for 5 years. As soon as that happened, a bunch of stocks that I gather, get a bunch of government work, got smoked. One of them was Palantir.

I had no idea. Up next, we'll expound. And much more on today's markets. On this, the one that only investors edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show investors edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement

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Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture

X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere where people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for,

well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be Be firm. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

So, I mentioned Palantir. Early in the morning, it was announced that the CEO is going to sell like $1.2 billion worth of stock. But it was early in the morning, and the stock was only down a little. It really got hit when that government thing was announced. I'm going to have to do some legwork tonight. this Palantir have a ton of business with the government. And a few other names got whacked today also. So all of a sudden I'm going to have to start looking at that. Now, interesting. President Trump raised the bar in spending, defense spending, when he was

president at the first go-round. And now he's saying, we're going to cut. Interesting. I think what's happened here is I just think with him and Elon they got sick and tired of hearing the Pentagon can't account for like a trillion bucks and they have failed four audits so I think a little bit of that's going on as you know some of the worst acting stocks in the market

are government contractors and defense stocks So while some things have really benefited from the new administration, oh, there are some things that have gotten whacked from the new administration, including a lot of health care, which is acting a little bit better now, but you got smoked. Why? A lot of health care businesses get paid government-wise. and we think they're going to address that going forward also. So a lot of moving parts, somebody who manages money like myself, boy, we got to be on our game. And I'm a state for the record, we do not own Palantir. And I wish I did before today, but now I'm kind of okay.

And I'm going to look at it in the pullbacks because it's been one of the strongest stocks. though I was on TV Monday with Charles Payne saying, I don't understand a hundred times sales. And that's what Palantir is. It's training it a hundred times sales, which is a ridiculous number. Well, it's less than a hundred times sales today. So as I said, there were just a lot of blowups today, some on earnings. I got one stock that was at a new yearly high symbol A-X-O-N, new yearly high with a good breakout on volume yesterday,

got downgraded this morning, which usually will hit the stock a little. It dropped $117, 17%. And I asked myself the question, what the hell's going on here? So you've got to be on your toes. And I can tell you the areas we have been telling you to avoid stay a voids and I'm talking about a lot of the building

slash construction a bunch of those names that got whacked a few Mondays ago on that China AI chip crap have not recovered and hardly even budged from that little crash while other things have come back

and then companies that mis-earnings reports or guide poorly, boy, they're smoking those bad boys big time. Names like Go Daddy, 216 to 176 before you can say boo. There's one. How about today? Cadence design systems down 9% 26 bucks.

on their number. How about symbol F-O-U-R? Was it a new yearly high coming into today? Down $22 on their earnings, 17% drop. How about Wix, W-I-X, opened up $10,000, finished down $14? Or G-L-B-E, Global E-Online, New Yearly Highs, Coming into today, down 17% to $51. I have to tell you, as you know, we have three screens in front of us.

Three screens. My line, there's a lot of jello moving on the plate. And today, while the Dow was up 71, United Health bounced, which was about 70 Dow points. The S&P was up 14. some of the mega caps were up today and that'll definitely help but as I look at my screens a lot of busted up Facebook meta down 14 that was due by the way I think it's down 40 bucks in a couple of days got real extended boom but Aet Powell as we stated Cadence design.

Kava. Remember, we've been talking about this restaurant that's been doing so well. But the valuation, we always talk about paying $1.50 for a dollar bill. Down 14 today, 10.5%

to the downside. Breaking all support. So again, just a lot going on here. And we're just kind of keeping our head on the swivel. I've dumbed down. what we'd be doing and fortunately working out okay and fortunately big indices acting admirably trying to break out of range the other highs if they break out and start another uptread yay small and

mid-caps still ain't happening amazingly so even though we've been hearing for three years oh they're due and I must tell you I try to buy small caps three times in the last year I got stopped out all three times Breakout fail Breakout fail break out fail I'm done with it

You know when you know the small caps are working When I don't buy it the next time I'm jinks and myself We're through a lot of the earning season All the big ones are gone But there's still some That we are waiting for Ali Baba's Tamar

the China names have been strong. NetT is another China name. Walmart, as we have stated to you, it feels like all these retailers are in major bare markets and all the monies going into Walmart and Costco where Costco has a price earnings multiple in the 60s and Walmart in the 40s

with very slow growth, not because anything's bad, but because they're so big. We'll see how that plays out. it feels a little 1999-ish ladies and gentlemen and then

we head into April 1st and we'll hear if we got tariffs coming on if we do these little tit-for-tat tariffs I'm good if it starts getting crazy I worry we'll stay on it up next

what else in thine market I'm Gary this is the one only investment It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's your senator out of boy With Gary Colbub It comes highly recommended You're going to feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge I shall be on Fox Business Network

Tomorrow morning 10 a.m. hour With Stuart Varney And the Peeps Answering any question He may have of me On anything Boy I hope he asked me about Doge

What's tomorrow, Thursday? Oh, that's right. We had a day off this week. This is one of those rare weeks. I will not be traveling. Oh, I take it back. I'm driving down to South Florida to see the big accountant get all the taxes done, which, by the way, I got done on like January 10th.

But I've been so busy going up to the northeast. So heading south for Saturday. Yay. The Turrink. Yay. I got to figure out a weekend where I can just do nothing. Yeah. That sounds pretty good.

Yesterday, I did this whole little dissertation on earnings and gaps to the upside. And I got a bunch of questions on it. Why does it work? Well, nothing works 100%. And what we were discussing is, if a stock closes it 100 and they report earnings and it opens at 120 because they were expecting 80 cents a share and they do a dollar 10 and they're expecting two billion in revenue they did 2.4 billion and they raised their numbers going forward. I was asked why does it work? Well first off what's more important to me is that it does work and remember

nothing is 100%. You need to have good markets that's number one the right group but again, what's more important to us is that it does work and how do we know? Let me repeat. To my left, as I stand here doing the show, I have boxes of files separated by date and outcome. and one of the big files are companies that reported earnings gaped up and one quarter, two quarters, three quarters, went on their way big time to the upside. That's what we care about most, that it does work. And of course, everything gets to be babysat no matter what. Because you never know for how long, you never know how far.

It's just one of those characteristics of the market, where the market pays up overnight because the news is so big or so strong that the institutions have to figure out what they want to pay. Based on that, and there's your gap to the upside. Of course, same gap to the downside if things go to hell. Like bill.com, recently that closed at 96, opened at 60, 65. And you never know when that's going to happen.

And by the way, it usually doesn't happen with stocks that are in highs because they're already doing something well, but you never know when things change. So we're just letting you know it's this characteristic And that's why during earning season We're up earlier We close shop later And what we first do by the way

Is go through the reactions And then we back it up to why the reactions And then we start to look at What happened Oh they were growing at 25% Now it was 40 And it looks like 70 And of course, there are some weird ones.

We have mentioned to you, dear. We don't know what the heck's going on there. Because the last four quarters earnings, minus 12, minus 38, minus 45, minus 60. That's a horror show. Sales, minus 12, minus 17, minus 28, minus 30. This is year-over-year numbers. That should kill a stock.

The stock is sword. Beats the hell out of me. Why? I saw some comment. from an analyst that said, well, the worst is behind them. Really? I looked at guidance, and guidance was to be down again.

So who knows? Sometimes, you just don't. And I can tell you, flat out, I won't buy a deer. That earnings are down 60%. Heck no. No chance. Find me great growth.

that's where you'll find me. So just let you know an answer. We're more interested in what works than why, but it all has to do with the surprise factor. The market has to reevaluate price based on new news coming out about how darn strong the company is. Their products are selling better. their services are going out the door.

I still remember when we used to go to concerts and we couldn't get tickets online. I used to go to, what's the name of that music store down to North Miami Beach when I was a kid? And if Springsteen, whatever was playing, if you got to get there at 7 in the morning, and 200 people are online to get tickets. That's what we're looking for in the market.

I still remember those days. I forgot the name of that. Peaches was the name of the record store. And that's that. And if you want to know why NVIDIA's had this big move, it's because earnings were gargantuan. Sales were gargantuan.

And you want to know why one day NVIDIA ain't going to have a big move because they get so big, earnings and sales are going to decelerate. Or somebody is going to come along with a cheaper chip, a better chip, and then all hell breaks loose. Just on that news a few Mondays ago, they smoked NVIDI and everything else along. And that's why you have to always stay in gear, especially in the technological world, as things become obsolete and new things show up. and of course in case you don't know

my last stocks I owned in the big bull market that ended in 2000 oh lucent gone Nordell gone AOL gone that's how it works

and that's why I'm always worried when people feel I'm just going to own forever. And there have been some forever stocks. There's been a lot that have gone by the wayside. You have to recognize that because life change, things change, the world changes. And I can go through a litany of very famous names that are big fat, juicy zeros. And let us not forget Citigroup. Closed around 84 bucks today. Oh, no, it did. It closed at $8,000.

40 cents. It did a one for 10 split. It's still down 80 some odd percent from 2008. City Group. These are things we remember. These are the things we know. These are the things you've got to pay attention to. And if you're in mutual funds, the hope is the people that are running those funds got game. and they're moving with the changes, which the good mutual funds usually do well. And what we try to do is follow that big money crowd. The volume and the movement and the earnings and sales numbers shall dictate. And I can go through thousands of stocks throughout the years and show you the direct correlation between growth and

and good and heading south with growth and bad. We try to stay on them as best as possible. It ain't easy. Why? It's a lot more than earnings. If you own government contractors right now, you're getting screwed. A new administration.

On the other end, things are working. Up next, what else we got? This is the one. not only investors edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John Comfort perfected

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit For less than you expect Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase Bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination Plus enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide The Capital One Venture X card

What's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge access is Subject to change, see Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to... What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action In the Gester's Edge With Gary Kulpah So If the NBA was a stock I'd be selling it The NBA All-Star game

That was just played on Sunday 80% down in viewership From the highs 13% from last year Why do people screw with success. I just don't get it. Why do people

screw with success? I couldn't even, I turned it on, what did they do? They got games up to 40 and come on. Just let you know how we see things. They're lucky they got these big,

big contracts. But man, oh man, if the numbers keep going down, guess what happens to contracts? They be going the wrong way. 80% drop. Trump. I got one Trump moment.

I'm going to take big issue. As you know, we've been complimenting the heck out of him as of recent. He stated, unequivocally, that Ukraine started the war with Russia. What? And he blasted Zelensky. Now, I got news for you. Zelensky says they can't account for a bunch of, money. I'd be blasted him, but memo to the president. Russia started the war.

Russia is the heel. Ukraine is the baby face in all this. And I tried to, why would he say that? Is he trying to, all he's doing is making Russia where Putin is nothing but a murderer. He's just a murderer. He murders. He murders people. He's a dictator of the worst kind. All you're doing is strengthening his hand. I don't get it. So today, we got a problem with him. We segue China. So what have we been talking about China for a long time?

The man running the joint went towards more government control of business and crushed business. In fact, he has these education companies, T-A-L and EDU that dropped over 90% when they came out and said they should not be making any money. Just letting you know, China is now definitively signaling the private sector again. He actually met with all these business leaders, including Jack Ma from Alibaba, who they put into hiding for a long time. and they are now pivoting back business. Let it flourish. What do you got, 1.5 billion people?

Imagine what you can do if you just let it flourish. And maybe there's no coincidence that the China market has awoke in the last, I don't know, three months. And we'll see if it continues. It's been dead money for a very long time. And maybe finally somebody got into the ear of Xi and said, dude, you want to keep your job? Your popularity is heading south. Now, they still have huge real estate problems, huge debt problems. As I told you when I my visit to China, I was in a car with a guide and went down all these roads and highways, and he showed us all these cities.

That were empty. I'm not talking about streets. I'm talking about full cities. Buildings, apartments, office buildings, movie theaters, schools, streets, lights, you name it. Empty. And in case you don't know, you can go look up their property companies that have gone belly up or needed a big handout.

well, it's still in very bad shape and it still has to be watched. But right now, better tone. Not bydo, that just got hit on earnings, but other names, Alibaba, Stronger J-D, F-U-T-U, Tencent, and some others. We'll see if it continues. Europe has been strong, though got smoked overnight finally because it got extended pretty quickly. And I don't understand that, especially Germany. They're kind of in recession and their stock market has gotten vertical in the last few weeks.

Remember, some things can't put your finger on when it comes to the markets. But Germany was down 2% overnight. I have no clue about two night. As long as the big indices continue to act okay, I really want to see the S&P get out of here to the upside. You're at right around highs. Give me $6,200. It's $6144 and get it away from the breakout.

I'd be a happy guy. NASDAQ, get me up to $20,500. break away from resistance. Get another uptrend versus we're at about 12 weeks of sideways action. With the tape very split, and it is,

50% of the stocks are not in uptrends. Don't know if that could occur. Tomorrow's another day. Hey, don't forget again, Fox Business Network 10 a.m. hour tomorrow with Stuart Forney. That'll be me. I'll wear a real nice tie.

You have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise stay well, be well. Same time tomorrow. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with CodeCompert. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.