Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - That NASDAQ!

Episode Date: January 23, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you were listening. It's Monday, January 23rd, 2023. Hey, hope you having a great week. Hope you had a great weekend. We did. We were in New York City for, let's see. see Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. It was a great weekend except the giant sucked.

And the only good news is we were put out of our misery in the first five to ten minutes of the game. Just outclassed, beaten up. Philadelphia was stronger, faster. Forget game plan. They were just stronger and faster. So, as we tell you here, football is at the line of scrimmage. and they were stronger and faster at the line of scrimmage, and that's the end of the game right there. That's how it works. I don't care what anybody else tells you. The greatest the quarterbacks, if you're in his face,

they're not the greatest the quarterbacks anymore. If you give the quarterback 10 minutes to throw the ball, he's going to find somebody. Anyway, congratulations of the teams that won. That won. I will tell you I had one big, gigantic team that I loved for the better. and that was Sam Fran and they held on and covered.

I actually thought they were going to blow out Dallas, but the game was pretty close to the vest. I did not, the Cincinnati Buffalo game that I wasn't so thrilled with as Buffalo as others because I thought Josh Allen has been very subpar in a bunch of games, throwing interceptions. And what else you got, KC? they're in uh but philadelphia they i got to tell you they look heads and tails and heads and shoulders

above everybody else right now the way the way they looked but they still have to play the game and uh to the uh conference championships uh we go san fran against philly Cincinnati kc I like Philly and Cincinnati. Cincinnati looks pretty good. And by the way, Cincinnati won the Super Bowl last year. They were ripped off by a late stupid call. I consider them the Super Bowl champ. Anyway, that was that. That was the weekend. But let's get into the crux of it. Let's walk backwards as we are here to guide you through the markets. We nailed the bare market for all of you and ourselves. It was not in predicting. It was in the action and the patterns in the market that it makes. It's in the studying of bull and bear markets. And what they look like, how people react. And then we put in a low.

And it's been back and forth where the Dow was leading up. And what did we tell you about the Dow leading up? We'd rather see the NASDAQ leading up. And the NASDAQ has been absolutely nothing. In fact, on January 6th, that was the NASDAQ, the day we called another low. The NASDAQ was just coming off of the bare market low and rallied up. Something changed last week. Early in the week we started telling you, well, first off, the week before we had the best advanced decline figures in the market we had seen in a very long time.

We thought something was up, but we weren't sure we have to see something. actually happen. Early last week, we said to you, we think the NASDAQ is ready to rally. It started showing relative strength, the whole works. And then the Dow dropped 1,200 points. And during that drop, we had said to you that the NASDAQ has much better relative strength. It feels like it does not want to go down. And the only reason it went down for a couple of days was 1,200 Dow points. And that took us the Friday. That was the first bounce for the Dow after getting dunked for three days. And that first day, the NASDAQ just hummed.

And when I say hummed, voraciously, that's a word, bought up, voraciously bought up. You can feel it in the action. It got us doing something we hadn't done in a while and that's buy into those areas. Why? There was no reason to buy them before, but we thought the NASDAQ had taken over the mantle of leadership in the market. And as we said to you on Friday, we don't know how long it lasts or how far it goes, but we're just letting you know. And amazingly, it was starting to happen in earnings season. And we noted Netflix, the frickin' stock, the company's earnings were down 91% and the stock still finished up on Friday, $26.

Ninety-one percent drop in up $26. And what is that? It's called three words, as we tell you, changing of complexion. And we also told you that so, and we did in the webcast this weekend, so many names. have these bottoming patterns off their lows. Low level, mid-level, a lot of the bombed-out stocks. Wayfair on Friday reports firing a ton of people gaps up, changing a complexion. We walk into today and guess what happened?

They jumped all over the NASDAQ types again. The semiconductors, the software, names, the beaten up names, turning up, turning corners. Again, how long it lasts or how far it goes? We don't know. We're just letting you know this is a group move. It is a sector move. Don't believe the bears. Don't believe the deep recession talk. Just watch the market. There's a move of foot here as we go into earning season. Of course, there's going to be some things that are on the move that get whacked, and then there will be some things that come out of nowhere starting to jump because of earnings.

But all we can tell you right now, the weight of the evidence, the weight of the evidence, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, 100, semiconductors, software, things like that. Today, the semiconductor index broke above the highs of December. Boom. Semiconductor, strong as well. all heck. Companies that we know we're going to report losses skyrocketing. Companies that we know guidance is going to be lower than expected than last year, moving strong. Our job is not to inject opinion. Our job is to read the patterns and the tape and the strength in those

patterns. And we're just letting you know another very, very good day, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, software semiconductors. And of course, S&P also. And when they try to sell off the Dow middle of the day, and it was still up decently, they could hardly sell off the NASDAQ. Remember the 100-stock comparison. If there's 100 stocks in a bare market

and 100 stocks turn the corner and start turning up, that's noteworthy. Well, at least in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ-100 tech types, semiconductors, just about everything is turning the corner and turning up with some things breaking above range and actually there's actual some leadership in technology land. Go figure. And again, we say this knowing. We are into massive earning season.

That's the only shame of this. We bought into this, but we wanted to be insanely buying into some of these moves. then I look, oh, this reports tomorrow. That reports the next day. That reports Thursday. And you know us. We're not jumping in front of those trains. We're not courageous. We're wimps when it comes to earning season. But leave no doubt the big institutions are back in technology now. And as we said last week, this is a much better action market than any of the counter-trend rallies we had seen beforehand. Much better. So stay tuned. Earning season. But the first big one, Netflix, 91% drop in earnings. And by the way, it was up 26 Friday, was up 15 today. And by the way,

it's still down 50% from its highs. Up next, the numbers, some news. Hope you're listening. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated, radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals

to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And walk once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. So, if you or any of you have been listening to the show just since November of 21,

you have seen us walk you through bear markets. We're talking NASDAQ here. You've hurried us through counter-tren rallies where we're. you're not very impressed, but Rodham. But you are now seeing the opposite of what we were seeing in 21 at the tops rolling over. The bottoms are now curling up in the all-important area. And it's off of the worst earnings reports, the worst sales reports, the worst opinions on the economy. Remember in 2021, were you hearing anything bad? Nope, not a lick. Everything was fine back then while we were warning you.

And now analysts have been downgrading stocks after huge drops. Guess what they're starting to do now? Starting to upgrade. You know why they're upgrading now? Oh, movement. They don't know what the hell they're doing. They close their eyes, hold their noses, and pray. By the way, we've tried that, and it does not work.

So, excellent day again today. They had a chance to sell it down and could not, and finished well. And again, let me repeat. At the close today, NASDAQ 100 moved above this little range of the last week, easily, still has to deal with November-December highs. The same for the NASDAQ. But the semiconductors today, the SMH, the S-O-XX, moved above range today. Muwee importante today.

The software, E-TF, IGV, moved above last week's range today, now headed towards the November-December highs. A break above the November-December highs for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ-100, and the software? That would be really good news. That'd be really good news. And here's how it works. Listen carefully. You're listening? Nobody wants to believe this is happening.

Do you know why? Human nature. Human nature says, oh, the NASDAQ's been really weak. They're firing a lot of people. Earnings stink. It's the worst acting area in the market. Human nature. Can't believe this.

If it continues higher, and we break above those ranges November, December. You'll get a little more recognition from the people that don't want to believe it. And then it will go higher. And then guess what happens? Some of them start coming off the sidelines. And what does that do? Fules things. And then what happens? Fules more and more people come off to the sidelines and then we're off to the races. Now we're not saying that's going to happen. We're saying that's how it works. That's how bare trends turn into bullish trends.

And all we can tell you, the NASDAQ was lying in the weeds because of the Dow drop in 1,200 points, the first day up on the Dow, the NASDAQ and Fuego on Friday, and doubly today. And today even better because of the semis moving above range. And you have things like Wayfair. Remember we mentioned that Friday? Gapped up a Friday because they're firing a bunch of people.

Got triple upgrades today, up 26% today. This is a company that lost 700 million bucks in the last four quarters with big sales declines. What's the story behind it? Well, it had a high of 369. It closed at 59 today. but beautiful bottoming patterns, the opposite of the topping patterns. Ultimately, if they can't grow their earnings and sales again,

it'll hit a wall. But we're just letting you know everything, most everything, in this realm, are turning up into earnings reports. And we'll see where it takes us. Remember, we're also very good at figuring out when they hit the wall on the upside. In fact, every counter-trend rally in the bare market, we were able to call the tops within the same day or a day or two. This feels more

than just counter-trend because markets, especially the NASDAQ, NASDAQ, much more time, much more pattern, much more time spent retesting low levels, and now successfully breaking away from those lower levels. We have no idea what's going to happen tomorrow. We just know there's a move of foot here. Tomorrow in the morning, 3M in the Dow, Johnson and Johnson and the Dow, Travelers in the Dow, Verizon and the Dow, all important Union Pacific, Raytheon, Pack. car transport Lockheed Martin defense Halliburton and oil GE in whatever they do

Danaher and medical D.R. Horton in housing after the close tomorrow. Microsoft by the way earnings or estimates at a B down year over year they'll probably beat. Capital One Financial Canadian National Rail Important Rail Intuitive Surgical Texas Instruments Muwe importante semi-conductor that's just tomorrow So you know what we're dealing with here. And then the semis. Very good potential corner turns today in AMD. And that stock's been beaten up badly.

They report in eight days, though. NVIDIA, very strong. We were impressed with NVIDIA on Friday because it got back all of Wednesday and Thursday in one day. Very good move there. We mentioned Netflix. We thought Tesla was going to rally towards the 50 day, up and another 10 today. They report Wednesday. That's what we're dealing with here. Every time we see some, oh, they report Tuesday. Oh, they report Wednesday. But leave no doubt. Compelling.

Up next, the numbers. Whatever else. Oh, we got some news. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't

need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome us again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. By the way, New York City, famous for food. Went to this diner called The Mansion. I think it's like 80th and second or first. If you ever up there, go. Family owned, father's son.

Very nice people. go mansion market wrap brought to you by investment dash models.com that's Jim Rohrabck one of the great market timers no gray airs with the man you're either in or out of the market was proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models.com well last week as we said the Dow was down 2.7% but the NASDAQ was up over a half percent that's what we mean today the Dow was up eight tenths of a percent we're gonna use a percent The NASDAQ?

2%. Catching the drift. And as we repeat, the NASDAQ is the risk index. Daup 254, S&P 47, NASDAQ 23, NASDAQ-200-253. The SOX was up 4% in change. And what do we tell you about the semiconductor index? The SOX was up 5% today. What do we tell you about the semis?

If it's leading, the market's following. Guess what the socks is doing? And broke above a little range today. Don't argue with it. Don't believe the BS artists. Oh, the end of the world's coming. We're going to recession. Don't buy.

The market is speaking differently, and our job is simple to interpret it. Notice how we have segued. And when we tell you we have no bias, we mean it. Vance DeKline's good. volume good and just good reactions even to upgrades and that famous person you know on TV the most famous financial person said two weeks ago you don't want to own tech perfect anything else I would say would be not inside baseball but you really have to see it but let me give you a visual again imagine if you're going down the stairs and then you hit the lobby

and then you walk across the lobby to another set of stairs and you walk up the first step. But there are no other steps right there. You have to walk a little bit farther. But then another step shows up and you walk up that second step. That's what's going on now. Especially with the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 semiconductor software which were destroyed. And by the way, are still way, way down. The socks at 4,068.

It's still at 2934. You got that? And we repeat. We think the earnings that are going to be reported are going to suck. But markets will bottom on troughs in earnings. And maybe we're getting that. Notice the words, maybe. I didn't say definitely.

but when you have everything doing the same thing, that makes a huge difference. And notice we don't care why. We'll find out why ultimately this is the best move we have seen since the top in the market. Because price was elongated at the lows, had more time, put more doubt in, I'm getting a lot of calls from people that watch me judiciously on Fox.

And two weeks ago, I changed my stance on TV, where I was just saying, just letting you know the advanced decline figures are the best we have seen since the highs. And that may be a good change of complexion. And we walked into 1,200 points to the downside last week. But when that was going on, the advanced declines were not so bad, and the NASDAQ types didn't budge. They were down for two days, but I was looking at names like Adobe and stuff. They wouldn't move. And as soon as the Dow stopped, and the Dow is now up 500 points in two days, NASDAQ's up what in two days?

Huge. NASDAQ closed at 10-852. It's up 500 and 12 points in two days. And we're just letting you know. we don't think this is a fly-by-night move this second. It feels different. But, earnings,

earnings, we can promise you, we can guarantee you. I'm not allowed to guarantee. So let me say, we can wholeheartedly believe there'll be some names that gap down 10%, there'll be names that gap up 10%.

But on the whole, dang, the bottom is, lifted up in the most important areas. By the way, retail's doing a little bit also. That's of import. Now, remember Thursday we said, man, a lot of stocks in the stuff area breaking down, they still look like crap. Remember we warned you about managed care stocks? They were down again today. We warned about Staples. They were down today for the most part. But the risk on areas again. Good day. Tomorrow's another day. And again, lots of earnings. In the news, just a little

headline. SPAC deal shrink after speculation wanes. Told you so. Remember, when I started in this business at a penny stock firm, we did blind pools. That's a SPAC. They just came up with a different name. Our blindpools, when we merge with companies, actually had some sales. And we bought them at very low valuations. These miscreants brought them in at ridiculous valuations, and a bunch of them are down 90%. And they can't come out with any of them anymore. The market's doing this right now. You know what December was for retail sales? biggest monthly drop in 2022. How can the market go up?

Catcher my drift? Watch the market. How America surrendered to marijuana. What did we tell you about marijuana why they're legalizing it? A, because they don't give a crap about your health. You got that? They don't care about your health.

They lied to you. They try to outlaw cigarettes, but let's make marijuana. illegal. Our government doesn't care about you, not a lick. Marijuana is bad for you. It sucks. The only thing good about it is, if you own stock in Doritos or macaroni and cheese, the stock will go up. You know, they're munchies. New York City, I call it the big bong hit now. Everywhere you walk, it just reeks. Article. Pot became ubiquitous across the U.S. because it rates billions of dollars in tax dollars despite concerns about impact of health.

Colorado and Washington led the charge in 2012. And of course, you know what they had to do eventually. Lower the taxes because you can buy it without tax from your uncle Biff across the block who had better spleaf and would deliver. Up next. More news of the day. And anything else. I can think of. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every

purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply My lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits. you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One. In the news, ready, go. Action! In The Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. In case you don't know,

in the news, the WWE Raw tonight on USA Today is celebrating. Is it tonight? Yeah. The 30th anniversary. I'll be watching. What else is in the news?

You know, sometimes you just got to bring these things. up. You know, Aretha Franklin, she has this song, Natural Woman. It's now being deemed offensive. People are demanding it be removed from Spotify and Apple Music. I have a question. Do you think there is a select group of people around the globe that walk into a room or get on a team's meeting and Skype and say, how can we make ourselves more victims today and get ourselves noticed. Aretha Franklin, a song Natural Women, which is

about empowering women. You now have a group of people that are pissed off. What does a matter with these people? The victimhood of the world, not just here. Everybody wants to be a victim. Which leads me into the next one.

Do you know a bunch of schools are not telling students when they earn merit scholarships because of equity. They're drowning out, they're stomping on greatness. If you work your ass off in school and the next person does not, and you excel and they do not, nah, you're not getting crap. We're going to make sure it's all equitable. These people are insane.

They are destroying will. They're telling students who are not working as hard or doing as well, we got your back instead of saying, work harder, work smarter, and we'll help you. And you're telling the students that work in their tail off and succeeding in doing well, we've got to lower your bar to meet them. This is radio.

There's certain words I can't use here. But some of our education system is blankety blank blank. And you may fill in the blank. By the way, this is becoming wider in many areas. Hey kids, reach for the sidewalk. instead of reaching for the stars. Well, that was in the news today. On top of Aretha Franklin, yeah, that's bad.

Yeah, that's bad. And then, you ready for this? In the Inflation Reduction Act is $380 billion given to a Democratic hack named John Podesta to dole out $300,000. 180 billion of our tax dollars to invisibleness. And they're all going to be grants. Money's going to be stolen, misappropriated, misused, and they don't give a crap. Al Gore will get a bunch and there'll be no accountability.

I think the most corrupt administration of all time is at hand. as they raise federal spending from $4.4 trillion to $6 trillion and are handing it out to one person to dole out to friends, family, relatives, and the like. And I am hoping the Republican Party gets out their pen and paper and writes down every freaking dollar where it goes because I can promise you this. It ain't going to you and I. Go read up about this. go read up what

370 billion oh I'm off by 10 billion is going to be at its disposal to hand out for climate change what are you going to do huh they're going to turn on a cape and stop the tornadoes and hurricanes

ladies and gentlemen I repeat I've never been more optimistic about us I have never been more pessimistic about them and it's getting worse by the day and all this thing with the documents with Biden? Bad enough. And the same with Trump. But his reaction to the documents, it's a big, just gigantic middle finger to Americans. Eh, you know, screw you. I'm the president. Up yours.

Take a flying leap. That's the reaction. I have no hope of the people run in this country. I'm actually surprised at times any of our lights work in the streets. You should read about it. New York Times article. He even did one. Entitled, where were all the money go? Climb it forward. Go check it out. You want to get sick to your stomach?

Read, $380 billion is going to go towards nothingness. Nothingness. Doled out by a Democratic hack. You think any Republicans are going to get any of those grants? You know what the Republicans going to get? Kicking the grapefruits. And a big laugh. Why do I worry? This is example number 7,427,322, a why I'm worried. We're just Marx. That's all we are. We're their power base. And when they don't have enough, they just invent debt.

31.5 trillion of it. And it's going to grow exponentially as we move forward. Wish I had better news. But the great news, market really acting well. We'll be doing that on the webcast tonight if you want to join in one month free at convictionleaders.com. Go check it out. Until tomorrow, have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's simple. Make sure you hug your family.

Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Have a great day, everybody. To the same time tomorrow. Let's hope we have another good day. Peace out.

all. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.