Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The 10 year yield [01.16.2026]

Episode Date: January 16, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It's Friday, January 16th, 2006. I still can't get over saying 2006. Time is a fleeting, ladies and gentlemen. Enjoy every moment. Hey, this is serious talk on everything that affects you without any bias ulterior motive agenda except for you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry,

the Morlocks in D.C. And just something I watch today, off the beaten path, typically something we don't normally do, but we talk about everything here from our football picks today to professional wrestling to our justice system. I have to cover that today. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com.

We'll post it on our X feed. Don't follow us on X you should. Also, we'll post it at the BizTV YouTube channel. And if you'd like to email me, just be nice. So let's see. I want to start with the justice system or the 10-year yield. Let's do the importance of this show. We're going to start with the yield on the 10-year bond, ladies and gentlemen.

Write these three words down as we move forward. Ten-year yield. That is what a government bond is yielding. if you bought the bond today, this is what the yield you would get at this moment. You would get 4.231%. You hold it for 10 years, you get 4.231 per year. $100,000 will get you $4,231 per year. At the end of the 10 years, it matures, you get your money out.

Why am I starting with that? How boring of me. Those who have listened to my show, not just listened, but really listened to my show. During the printing of money by Jay Powell, where he went to his desk, by the way, he admitted this,

went on a computer and printed money. nine trillion bucks. He didn't do nine trillion. He printed up to nine trillion. I think he printed about five. He took that money, conjured out of thin air. He didn't send it to you.

Did you get a dollar? Nope. He went into the bond market and bought up all the bonds, taking the yield on that 10 year down to a half percent. Remember that? A half percent. He took it from 3.2 down to a half percent. Actually, at one point it got to four-tenths of a percent.

Back then, if you invested in the 10-year yield, you would only get four-tenths of percent, and hopefully you didn't buy any bonds there because you're losing your arse if you did. Fast forward. The same central bank unwound a bunch of that $9 trillion. think we're probably down to 6.5 or 6, I don't know, let it run off. And he stopped letting it run off so he's buying shorter term bonds, short term, like three-month treasuries, maybe six months, maybe a year. He's not buying long-term and 10-year yield is considered long-term yields. The President of the United States has come out and said, I'm not a free market guy. Of course,

he didn't say that, but I'm telling you that. He doesn't believe in free markets. He's a control freak. Just like every other politician out there, but Trump is worse than the rest. And by the way, this is not a put down. We're just telling you he's a control freak. You don't need me to tell you that, right? I got eight news items from him every day.

All interventionist. Everything intervening with something. Everything putting his hands into something that normally presidents don't do. He pardons somebody else today who was convicted of fraud, and we're finding out the person that he pardoned. The relative gave millions of bucks to his pack. We'll let you decide what that means. But I get back to the 10-year yield. So Jay Powell has taken the 10-year yield.

which he does not control because he's not printing money and buying up those bonds anymore, has taken his little short-term Fed funds rates from 5 and a quarter down to 3.5. But while he's done that, the 10-year yield has now gone from 3-8 to 4-2-3-1. Though from a year ago it's gone from 4-8 down to that 3-1, down to that, 3-8, but why am I bringing it up today? Because they want easy money. The president wants easier money. The president wants yields going lower.

The president wants the central bank to take their Fed funds rates down to 1%, which we've told you because we're smart. We'll have big inflation again, and boy, will they lose the midterms. but there's something else going on. See, if they're not printing money and buying up long-term bonds, one has to ask a question. If they are so, from the president on down, want lower interest rates,

why is the free market of long-term yields breaking above a five-month high today? Now, that in itself is not the end of the world. that in itself is not the end of the world but it hit 4.201 in late September went down came back up to 4.204

in mid-December today it closed at 4.231 breaking above those ranges you got to go back to September early September or October October October November November December four and a half months.

Now, let me state for the record, not a biggie yet. But if this breakout to the upside for the 10-year yield keeps heading higher, that is the free market, the thing that counts more than the politicians and the central banks rigging a market, the free market is essentially. saying you better not ease too much because the free market is saying that's trouble lying ahead. We're seeing things that you don't even know about. You better be paying attention. How were we able to call the massive inflation before anybody else after Jay Powell did what he does? because A, the definition of inflation, and B, we started seeing yields give him the middle finger. So you got a little itty-bitty middle finger today.

Just a little stub sticking out. The bond market sticking its little finger out at the Fed who's been easing, and the president who wants probably zero percent interest rates. And let me repeat, if this is indicative, if it continues to rise higher, and they continue to ease and don't do anything about it, remember those 9% inflation days,

we're going to get them again. Mark my words, write down the three words 10-year yield. Now, if the 10-year yield, year yield just broke above a little range and sits around and hangs out between 4-2 and 4-3, or maybe even 4-4, no biggie. I don't think a biggie. But the fact that we broke above that little range today, thought it worth mentioning today. We'll be on it.

Up next, the markets. Oh, yeah. Justice. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicate. radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning,

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Let's do a little bit more in the markets. Quiet day. Dow was down 83. The S&P was down 4.

The NASDAQ, down 14. NASDAQ 100 down 17, but a bunch of jello moving on the plate. You know when we say news driven out of Washington, D.C. and the president every day? Well, they did something today on something. You can go look it up. But Constellation Energy down 33. Talon, simple TLN. Another energy.

Down 47 today. But, G.E. Vanover. up 39 today. Do you know why? Because they put out some possible rules and regulations on energy and delivering of it and all this crap. In other words, out of D.C., some winners and losers. You know what else? What just happened recently? Oh, that's right. They proposed insanity of price controls on credit card companies. You know, those free market Republicans, what I say to it, Trump is not a free market Republican. He's not conservative. He is a socialist interventionist. Case closed. I don't care what anybody tells you. So what did they do? They came out with a proposal. 10% credit cards. So what happens is American Express Capital One, MasterCard Visa, Synchrony Financial, and a few other sundry things. Drops. Drops. like a rock. Why? Well, because they'd kill their business. Guess what? Well, the administration is finding out, it's a stupid idea. And they don't just come out and say, ah, we made a mistake. They quietly, earlier today, they quietly, American Express up seven. You get my point, news driven.

Remember the 50-year mortgage. Remember that stupidity? Utter stupidity. What happened? Gone. They just let it roll off. That's what we mean by the news-driven thing. There was news from them today on rare earth crap,

on semiconductors, oh, Taiwan semis going to give us all this great stuff. because we dropped their tariff from 25 to 15. Oh, he told people that if you disagree with us on Greenland, other countries, we're going to tariff you. It's freaking insanity. That's what we mean by news-driven. Imagine telling countries we are going to tariff our own arses while we're saying we're hurting you, even though we're hurting us, if you disagree with us,

threatening Great Land with our military. Yeah, sure. But I'm bringing this up because there was a lot of jello moving on the plate today because of D.C. And that's part of what I have to do on a daily basis

deal with D.C. I am so, happy I own no credit card stocks recently. I would have not been happy the last couple of days, but it looks like they kind of quietly push it today. What's next? Beats the hell out of me. Anyway, quieter day. Anything sticking out? Let's see. Semiconductors open strong again. Some finished down, some finished up, but opened strong. You had crypto was down early, finished up a little bit, okay fine. Of course you had weakness in the housing and housing related as interest rates jumped above a range. That's not going to be any help. That's to be watched very closely.

We're going to be watching oil prices very closely. Oil prices plunged yesterday. because the president didn't about face on Iran. And we're finding that, I'm not going to, well, you know what, there's two sides, so I'm not going to even get into it. But they backed away from, well, we're going to attack Iran. And of course, oil prices plunge ticked up a little bit today. We're going to watch that closely. Just a mushy day. I said to you early, there was some stocks up 40 and down 40.

based on DC. And that TLN yesterday, Talent Energy? Let's see. They had some news that it went from 374 to 419 at the close back to 371 today on government news.

Yay. Welcome to our world. Ladies and gentlemen, we will try and thrive through all this. Anything else stick out? PNC Bank, good reaction to earnings. You had some bad reactions.

I will tell you, Bank America had a bad reaction, Citigroup had a bad reaction, but bounced. Wells Fargo a bad reaction. So some banks not great, but PNC is a big regional bank. Next week, already got my list. Are you ready? All right, Tuesday, because we're off on Monday, by the way. 3M in the Dow is reporting.

Fifth Third Bank, Key Corp and U.S. Bank Corps is reporting. This is early. That is regional banks Tuesday after the close. Down and Out and Bare Market Stock Netflix reports. That'll be interesting. United Airlines, Wednesday, Johnson and Johnson and Travelers in the Down and a couple other regions like Truist, which I still don't understand why would you change the name from SunTrust

to truest? I don't get it. Rest of the week, let's go to Thursday. Ooh, you got GE. Northern Trust. Procter & Gamble in the Dow after the close, Intel, which has been a strong stock.

Oh, government-related because they took a position and are doing them favors. Intuitive surgical, ooh, and K-L-A-C. I believe that's a Thursday, and Southwest Airlines, which I have yet to fly in the fact that they have changed their seating, I believe. But leave no doubt, there are no more discount airlines. Southwest is not a discount airline.

That's how they used to promote themselves. I was looking at flights from Vegas to Orlando. Yeah, $600. Yeah, discount, right? Anyway, that's next week. And then the week after, boom. Can't even keep up with how many earnings. Next up, that justice crap.

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for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're

going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. So, highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, off the beaten path, in the 3 o'clock hour every day, I turn on Martha McCallum and Fox News. It gives me kind of, you know, they cover the big stuff. I really do like Martha. She's more to the unbiased, though everybody has a little bit of bias. and today though

they had you know this scumbag who killed and by the way this is nothing to do with Charlie Kirk but they had this scumbag who murdered accused of murdering Charlie Kirk and his defense attorney and I'm watching his defense attorney

what a schmuck and I'm thinking to myself what the hell is going on here this is our justice system. It was just as much as I watched a bunch of bull crap BS make up stuff in order to make this case last three years, get rid of this problem. I can't even explain how convoluted and stupid it was and I watched the judge and I'm thinking to myself, wait a minute, this judge has flexibility on this whole thing.

And he sat there and took this whole BS. And I'm thinking myself, wait, if I'm the judge, I'm looking at this defense attorney, I'm saying, hold on. You're not doing this in this court. And I would have gone through whatever legalese I would have to do and stuff like that. And I was like watching this guy, just frustrated as all hell, that you have this murderer sitting there. And, you know, some things are open and shut.

You do know that, right? And it was just another example for me of the justice system is so weirded out. And I bring that up because, do you know there's not a day that goes by where I do not read about somebody who murdered somebody, raped somebody, assaulted somebody, who's done it eight times, not necessarily murder, but somebody who assaulted 15 different people, 15 different people, 15 different times over four years and was let out every time and then finally murder somebody. There's not a day that goes by that. I don't see something like that. I'm serious. 30 times arrested. There's this one guy that was finally no bail. He knifed somebody on the subway twice before he knifed people and he was still let out. What does it take for our justice system?

You knife somebody. That would be attempted murder, don't you think? And he's out. And then he does it again. And finally, I just saw another one today where a man murdered a kid. That's pure murder.

They charged him with manslaughter. Guy's going to be out if he's found guilty and whatever, whatever. I think our system is so screwed. I don't know what's going on out there. Which takes me to another point of this. You know, my buddy Pete the Greek, who I haven't seen in many years. Oh, by the way, here's the story.

A man runs across the street, shoves an 84-year-old to the ground, photographs his unconscious body, doesn't call 9-11, the victim does. he's charged with involuntary manslaughter and says I was just having a bad day. That was his defense. Anyway, back to Pete the Greek. In my early days in the markets, me and Pete the Greek had this little back office during the O.J. Simpson trial. Open and shut case. They found his blood at the site. Open and shut. Your blood is at the site of the murder

mixed with the blood of the murdered. And between the judge and the prosecutors, by the way, Marcia Clark got a show on, I believe, CNN for one of the biggest judicial failures in the history of the world. O.J. Simpson getting off of that murder because of how bad they were and how bad the judge was just to do an open and shut case. motive, past beating the crap out of the wife, could place you there, you've got a cut on your hand, your blood's at the site,

and what did they do? Our justice system had them doing the trial. How long did that trial take? It felt like four years. And he got off for a freaking murder. This is what I mean by the justice system is so goofy, so much crap is allowed, and so much crap gets through, and it's still going on. You can be arrested 50 times and get out again and again.

And the judges are so lenient in so many cities, of course, unless it happens to their family, what does this have to do with you and the markets and your money? Not much. except if you live in a city that the malls are now empty and the stores are now boarded up because there's so much damn crime in those cities and you know which cities I'm talking about that affects your business right so yeah it's about you your money the markets your industry your city when I'm on the subway in New York City I stand against the wall and I'm looking left and right that's how tough it is when I go into a drug store everything's locked up and there's two security guards that they have to pay for justice system some cities if you steal $949 you're good if you steal $950 oh felony what the hell is that for a justice system so just letting you know I was just watching this defense attorney today I'm thinking my

of this system is so screwed it's so convoluted it's so messy it's so stupid well welcome to our system that has taken us the 38 trillion of debts where our politicians are committing insider trading violations that we would go to jail for but nothing happens to them with their thieving and stealing i saw one republican woman that was asked about hey you're on this committee and you bought all this stock in something you were voting on. This is our whole system is, I don't know what's happened, but we'll keep fighting the good fight, kids. Don't know if we can extract change, doubt it, because the corruption gets worse by the day, but we'll do the best we can.

dig it that's my little thought process on the justice system and pete the greek who i haven't seen in many years but we were transfixed to that o j simpson trial and you know he even said to me and i didn't believe him he said

i think they're going to find him innocent i said no way no way and we even were saying back they're the worst two what was that marcia clark and what's his name darden two morons open and shut case Pete the Greek was right he nailed it

he nailed it okay backtrack write down those three letters three words 10 year yield and we'll cover it each and every day but they broke above range today that is the cost of capital does tend to affect the markets

a bit not sure if it means anything maybe it ticks a little bit more but if it starts getting going I can promise you take a mallet and bang the head of the market from trying to go higher. Just so you know, unless Powell starts printing money and buying up the long bonds to keep yields down, which will create all kind of havoc eventually after he's gone.

We loathe all of them. We loathe anybody who wants to interfere with free markets, and unfortunately this president is the worst I've ever seen. And I tell it to his face, respectfully. He still has the greatest golf courses. Hey, up next, football picks with 4 and 0. That's up next on Investor's Edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast. might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. By the way! Do you want to know what we mean?

So we know. the president did the Venezuela only for oil. He doesn't give a crap about the drugs. You know, we pardon that Honduras guy who trafficked in 200 tons of cocaine. It was all oil. Get this. His first Venezuela oil sale deal, the initial deal worth 250 million, went to a company called Vital, the senior trader for the company, John Addison, who secured the contract. gave $5 million to MAGA Inc. and more than $1 million to two other Trump-aligned political action committees. Six million bucks of donations bought him a $250 million deal. This sucks.

Just letting you know. And for those of you who are so fond of this president, it should piss you off, but it won't. because I know how it goes. We do wish you well. We take no joy. By the way, we covered Biden and his corruption and his family, a bunch of scumbags, his son, the king's scumbag. But Trump, need I say more?

Okay, so we told you, we haven't, we told you that in the playoffs, we are phenomenal. Since we started giving out the Super Bowl pick, I think we've lost four since the year 2000, maybe five. And in the playoffs, we were batting 75%, if not more, but we stopped doing them. I don't know why a few years back. We'd only do something every now and then, but we wanted to start up again, and we're 4 and 0 this year. We have a knack. So we're not going to do the Monday game now.

That's Miami, Indiana. We could do that Monday. But we got four divisional games this weekend. And as you know, we're very selective. It doesn't mean we're going to do everyone. My favorite pick is the over in the Rams Bears game unless there's very bad weather. So you're going to have to check on the weather. It will be cold in Chicago.

That's our favorite pick. but in that game we're confused before I look at a line I put my own line to something and I was thinking that the line should be pickum yet I'm seeing the line three and a half to four and a half of the Rams away in Chicago

now Chicago lucked out winning the last game and thank you we want to thank them for doing that. Normally, I would tell you, put your house on the ramps. There's this thing in betting. When it looks so damn good, go the other way, that is the odds makers kicking you in the teeth. Which means three and a half to four and a half getting points in Chicago,

who's a pretty sound team, except they need to do better in the first half, and the Rams They've been known to be a little undisciplined Normally I tell you Just put the house on Rams I can't do that I'm going to say small Chicago plus the four and a half

And to be fair Let's go four Because I sing four and a half now Anyway, love the over Little Chicago I'm just But I got to tell you If the Rams cover, it's going to be one of those bets again where the bookies yelling and screaming at you, just to screw you.

Next, Bill's Broncos. Lines only Denver minus one. In Denver, tough place to win. And I used to live in Denver, and it is tough to win in Denver. Altitude and stuff. I have a feeling it's the Josh Allen premium that's given and the hope of the bill. I'm going to go Denver minus the one small. How's that?

I'm going to go the over in that game. Small. 49ers Seahawks. Seahawks minus seven at home. I have absolutely no feel for the game because San Francisco dumbfounds me. So I'm just going to leave that be. I think Seattle's got the best defense with Houston. I just don't have a feel for the game, so I'm laying off of it.

And the Texans at the Patriots, New England minus three against Houston with that very tough defense. I keep being told New England's beaten nobody. But I keep looking and saying, wait, they're 14 and 3. And they're home. My answer, I don't have a clue. I'm laying off the game. How's that? How's that for discipline?

We're laying off of two games. We're going bears small, but we really like the over in the game. And Broncos small and the over in that. And those are our picks for the NFL this weekend. And that is all. And notice we went for the two home teams and the Broncos and the Bears, but small. Just weird lines. And I, man, oh man, Rams giving points.

and I know they do score and by the way Puka Nakua won my fantasy league this year that's why I won it this year Puka Nakua is killer and by the way when I took them in second round they were laughing at me

little did I know lit up the scoreboard anyway that's our NFL picks and we'll be back on Monday see how we did and we'll have Miami Indiana that should be an interesting game Indiana looks like world beaters, ladies and gentlemen.

It looks like they look like a real special team this year. What they did in the last game, wow. Dang. All right. Next week, watch the 10-year yield. Next week, the semis continue to do their thing. Next week, a bunch of earnings starting come out. but the week after

I think the week after you probably got a thousand the week after that a couple of a thousand then you get the big guys and the biggies and the mega caps and we'll be working on it that all said you have a great

three day weekend we will not be here Monday best of Gary when you get home do like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family and your children they will feel better you will feel better I promise they will be well

thanks for joining peace out all good night this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k com that's garykay dot com guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now tommy john underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit.

for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details.