Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The 2nd step [08.18.2026]

Episode Date: August 18, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's August 18, 2006.

Hope you having a good day. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry. The Morlocks in D.C. yields, as we have been discussing, the all-important, highly talked about, highly touted semiconductors and artificial intelligence areas, debt and deficits, and scams and shams, and corruption, and miscalculations, and all that crap. but hope you're having a good day. If you do not get this radio show in your city,

we will post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you'd like to email us, just be nice because we'll be nice back. We'll be respectful back because that's who we are. of course if you like Hamas or a racist and all that crap we won't be so nice ladies and gentlemen we titled today's show the second step when I post that no one will know what that means but I'm about to explain it to you I hope you are listening carefully because we're getting right into it and then we'll do other stuff later.

As we have taken pains to explain over the airwaves, which is much easier to do in the webcast that we provide for our peeps because we're actually showing you the second step may have occurred today. May have. Possibly. Maybe, could be. Who knows? What are we talking about? Well, we always talk about the roadmap of bull and bare markets here. That markets trace out pretty much the same way when all is said and done in a bull market or in a bear market. without getting too technical, in a bull market, price ascends along the road.

In a bare market, price descends along the road. What do we mean by the road? Well, price usually runs up and down moving averages, namely one called the 50-day moving average, which by the way is just the last, 50-day closes, add them up, divide by 50, and you get a smoothed out line going up or down depending on whether prices advancing or retreating. And when markets bottom out, they usually happen over time and around the same price.

In other words, something's going through a bare market for a year and drops from 100 down to 35. What it typically will do is rally up to 40, back down to 35, rally up to 40, back down to 35, and do it for a while. And then finally, if things are going to get better, breaks above that $40 level. And what happens at that time also is the 50-day moving average that it is descended with starts to turn up and price is now living above and they're on the way. Conversely, if something's going to get in trouble, it's rallying up nicely and then stops going up,

and then backs and fills and backs and fills. And as we explain to usually, you get some wild action after move up, but let's, for the sake of this show, just say it tops out and doesn't go up anymore. and then breaks below the 50-day moving average. And as we have stated to you, you cannot ascend if you're below,

be in ascend, and you cannot descend if you're above. If you crash, you can rally up below it because you crashed, you're way down. We're talking about a normal ascension in a bull market. Price will break. live below the 50-day moving average. But that doesn't mean you're going to go into a bearish phase.

You've got to have the second step and the third step and the fourth. The first step is the break. The second step is the test. Meeting. You bounce. You rally. Back up. Towards the 50-day moving average.

under it. And then at the 50-day moving average, you get sold down. That's the second step. Your 50-day moving average is now somewhat declining, and in order to top out, you've got to have the second step fade. And then we await the scene the next move. Meaning, if you can't get back above it. Nothing good can happen. Doesn't mean the end of the world's going to happen, but we then look for the next line of support. And if that gets taken out and you go lower,

the 50-day moving average starts turning lower, and then you're in the process of unknown price and time. We never know how long a bull or a bear is going to last. And we go from there. The second step today. the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index four days ago hit it and sold off a little bit but no biggie

drop down Friday had a nice gap to the upside yesterday but finished okay today you had a very pretty big gap to the downside and the socks as I speak into the clothes is down 628 points, or about 5%, a possible second step. Possible. Potential.

We'll see what the next days have in store for us. That's the best way I can put it. That's the best way I can put it. If in fact it is, that would be troublesome because it includes the artificial intelligence names, because they've been going hand in hand, and have a very big influence on the big indices. So stay tuned. Those that do a little bit of this, go look how the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, three weeks ago, we've got very extended, has rallied up, met the 50 day that's now in a little bit of decline, and sold off pretty badly today.

Tomorrow's another day. It's a noisy area. You have the CEO of Nvidia doesn't shut. He talks more than Donald Trump. about how great things are, throws out numbers like, by the way, this is not a put-down with just stating facts.

So you never know. But I will tell you, bare markets, bearish markets, bare phases, bearish phases typically play out this way. And we will await the next move. Now I will tell you, money is in a vicious rotation.

Other areas. More defensive. We'll go through those also. But today, I'll go through some names and some percentages. It rated for me a big wow. Up next, more on the markets. Yields. Confusion.

I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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That's 8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-22-5-59. Investment Advisory Services offered through Coltbaum Capital Management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay. You ready? Sandisk, down 9%. micron down 7%. C-Gate, which I consider to been the strongest of them, 9% plus.

Western Digital, 7.5%. AMD, only 4.5%. That's not so bad. How about symbol light that was getting real strong off earnings? Almost 10%. How about symbol fix that broke above the 50 day yesterday nicely? Down $142 today. Seven and a half percent.

Corning, a very weak name. 7.7% rallied right into the 50-day moving average and sold off. And by the way, when we give out an index, an area like the socks, that inclusive of a lot of names. and as we go through a lot of names, a lot of them tag the 50 day and sold off badly. Anything that didn't get near the 50-day moving average is weaker. And there's a lot of those two.

Did I make my point? How about that nebius they talk about a lot, down 7.6%. Cerberus all over the map, 12.7%. Marvell, that's the one where the CEO of Nvidia said is going to be a trillion dollar market cap

7.9%. I'm just trying to go through some names, you know. Oh, Broadcom, which is getting cracked here. That was only down 3.5%. But that was already in trouble. AI, you ready? Caterpillar. Still trading like a penny stock down 4.

$40 today. That's $260 Dow points, Caterpillar. And of note with Caterpillar, about two weeks ago, it gapped up on its earnings report to $935, which took it just below the above the 50-day moving average, finished at about 878, way below the 50-day moving average, has still not be able to get back above it and was down 40 bucks today, as mentioned. Not good news. And just so you know, it has an artificial intelligent component to it.

It is not an artificial intelligence stock. It has a component, though. How about South Korea's been in the news? Well, that rallied up right above the 50-day, reversed yesterday, and was down 8% today. That's the exchange-traded fund for the South Korea, which, by the way, is kind of sort of just two names. So rough day.

And that is semiconductors, artificial intelligence of all stripes, which be the data centers, the data, the memory, the construction of these places, the electricity of these places, the power of these places, just a very, very rough day today. Interesting enough,

I always, okay, what caused this? I'm always big into causing it. And for a change, I saw no news to cause it. If you saw some news to cause it, email me. I didn't see anything. So this is to be watched closely. And again, because A, it's been the leading group, B, it has a major influence on the NASDAQ, NASDAQ, 100, S&P.

Simple as that. Big influence. it used to be the mag seven mag eight was so much bigger they're less so now what else well we've been talking up yields and people are talking yields today they're following our lead yields opened up higher today finished a little bit lower always good to see the 30 year dropped 0.24 at 5.285 the 10-year drop 0.18 to 4.706, and let's hope it stays down. As you know, we have explained to you how important that is. That is the cost of capital.

It's the cost of companies to float bonds, to float more debt. It's a cost to our freaking government run by a bunch of freaking people that have taken us to a freaking $40 trillion of debt with a freaking 2.2 trillion deficit this year. They're going to spend 1.4 trillion of our freaking tax dollars on interest. Think I'm happy with these people? Not. Anyway, so yields backed off a little bit today. Let's hope that continues.

I can promise you, I will get more worried if we see a five number on the 10 year. We're not there, and I will tell you, right in and around these areas is some good resistance, and hopefully it does not get through. What else happened today? I noticed transports late in the day sold off pretty damn good. Yeah, they did. That's your rails, your truckers, your FedEx, your logistics companies. So they got hit pretty good today. Didn't see any news there, but oil prices ticked up a little bit today.

I'll get into the confusion in a little bit. Weekday for commodities, airlines, cruise lines, most travel, housing-related, housing-related, auto dealers, I noticed also in autos. weekday for restaurants economically sensitive and not all because J.P. Morgan's still performing, but a lot of the financials, a little bit of a rough day. Home Depot reported crappy earnings was up seven or eight pre-market finished down on the day. And when I say crappy earnings, just not like they used to be. And that's because they're so much bigger now. They do like a 160 billion of revenues. What does Lowe's do?

Lowe's does about 80 billion, maybe 90 billion of revenues. The two Goliaths of that industry. And by the way, you should always read up the story of Home Depot. Two people that were fired, I think the name of the place was Handy Andy or something and opened their own place and boom. Big boom.

Love stories like that. All right. So now that we harsed your buzz, money's flowing elsewhere. Will it continue? I don't know. We'll go through those areas up next and whatever else. This is the one known Investor's Edge. We're listening to America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Dun-na-na-na-na.

Hey-yo. And look once again to Investor's Edge. Money flowed into medical. Drugs. Food and beverage. Insurance. Hospitals. What do they all have in common?

They're on the defensive side. Software every time semiconductors week, you get a better bid in software. I have no idea why. Not a clue. So software, good relative strength today. But just a mushy day, 18 to 30 on the NASDAQ, advanced declines, and 1530 on the New York. There were much more new yearly lows than new yearly highs on both the New York and the NASDAQ today, which is about as weird as can be. The Dow will always hold up better when market gets defensive. It was still down 116.

But as we said, Caterpillar was 260 Dow points. So what gave that help? Well, Visa was up five, travelers up three. Johnson and Johnson was up eight. drugs IBM up three and change little software component Chevron up three oil

Salesforce.com up five software Apple up four even though that's been very weak and we've been saying to it feels like every time the market gets weak Apple goes up because they get parked but who the hell knows if Apple breaks below $300 you'll hear from us

it's been relatively weak since earnings but hanging in there that's where money was flowing mid-caps rough day small-caps rough day tomorrow's another day if if this is indeed the second step

of a bearish phase in semis we're going to go through a little bit of ick for a while if and I can tell you today went a decent ways in stating that, but we're not there yet. We're not there yet. Let's see. This doesn't help.

This doesn't help. You know Jared Kushner is, right? The son-in-law of the president who is not in government, but is negotiating on Iran and whatever. This is today. Not making this up. And this is what I've told you is a real problem. Jared Kushner today on TV, excuse me, on TV, we are having very positive and active conversations with Iran, probably more robust than it's maybe ever been. Today, the president sends out a post.

There are no talks or conversations going on or scheduled with Iran. I want you to think about this. The President of the United States contradicting his chief negotiator on a war. Do you think that helps? By the way, do you think that helps the midterms? And of course, the president goes on to lie, as usual. The Hormu Strait is open and operating. That is such a lie, it's not even funny.

And by the way, it's a checkable lie by you. You know, you could go online and see the ships and how many are moving. There's nothing moving. So we wonder and we worry that we can't get the straight from the president of the United States on a war. Both face lie, looking right into the camera. And as you know, I want him to succeed. I want him to do great things. I would shake his hand.

I would stand by him, but I have to call things straight. I did it with Biden. I did it with Obama. I did it with Bush. I did it with Trump the first time. I got to do it again. This is worrisome. Contradict your head negotiator or one of your heads.

And then just make up stories out of thin air. So I worry that the market doesn't listen. I mean, I think if the market ever really listened to him, Oh my goodness gracious. So the big story today, and this is going to be watched closely by me, did the second step hit in a more of a bearish phase than anybody thinks about. And let me be clear, doesn't matter what any analyst says. Doesn't matter what the head of NVIDIA says.

if the semiconductors want to go deeper into a bearish phase, they will do it despite or in spite. Today on a technical basis, not very good. But as we have stated, we're open to all outcomes. We know how noisy this thing is. We do. We know the numbers that.

are bandied about trillions remember what we told you there's 1.65 trillion a debt off the bucks 1.35 trillion on the books that's 3 trillion bucks 3 trillion and you know I ask the question all the time how are they gonna make any money on spending on debt three trillion dollars that by the way has to be paid off we'll see I'm all for it. And I've been studying AI more and more, and I've got to tell you, maybe I'm just a dupus. I don't understand the whole of it.

All I know is, is when I put in questions or what's the best hotels in Tuscany, I click on something, a bunch of things come up, but I was able to do that just through regular Google, I think, right? Not trying to give it short shrift, but all right. I'm all for it. Anything else that's sticking out for me yields, leading groups. Simple as that. And right now, maybe the second step on the semis and AI,

with a lot weaker underneath that surface. Anything emerging. Well, as I stated earlier, let me tell you what I'm watching for. Eli Lilly. It's in about a one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine week range. Tease the downside a few times. Tease the upside a few times.

Which way is it going to go? A move above looks around 1250. Takes it out of range. I'm watching for that. And as you know, they're big in the thing of a bob. What is it, the GLP thingababab. Which, by the way, the stories I read about people that went from 300 down to 180,

cholesterol very high down to normal, blood pressure very high down to normal, if we get a lot of that, we're going to save a lot of money on health care going forward. hopefully this is the wonder drugs whatever they call it that has long-term effect I always have known though all these diets and stuff once you're off of them and this is not a diet of course up next what else is going on we'll figure it out I'm Gary this is the one only investors edge you're listening to what we're waiting for one two ready go Action.

Investors Edge with Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Hope you having a good day. Crappy day in the market. I've seen worse. Oil prices. Elevated again. Yields have been moving up.

We do not want to see that continue. Simple as that. I have no clue what's in the president's mind. I really don't watch that much these days anymore because it's just tiresome. And that goes for both sides. It almost looks like some disinterest in the Iran thing now. I think he really wants to get the heck out of it and he doesn't know how. I'm just hoping.

I'm just hoping. We never get to the point again where things are bled. blowing up like crazy. That's the big worry. I'm also noticing now, I'm just reading this to you, global bond markets on fire as borrowing costs soar. That is from the telegraph out of, I believe, England. Interest on government yields soared to pre-financial crisis levels amid concerns of unsustainable debt. D. It's not just here. It's everywhere. Japan's borrowing costs are at a 30, year high. France's 10-year yield, highest level since 2009. In Britain, highest interest rate since 2007. And do you know what I did? I put into my little Google, how much government debt is there

around the globe? 111 trillion of government debt. And then I plugged in total debt around the globe. $346 trillion. You know, governments don't produce profits. They will produce jobs. How many people are in our government? How many employed in U.S. government? 2.7 million civilian workers, and that's non-military.

You have 1.4 million service members. 111 trillion. Is it any wonder? What have we been saying to you for years here on the show? They're taunting markets and the economy. And then I would go on to say, yeah, but you know what they always say to me? Yeah, Gary, you set it at 20 trillion and we're fine. You said it at 25 trillion, we're fine.

We send it at 30 trillion, we're fine. 35 trillion, we're fine. Now we're 40 trillion. And the world hasn't ended. Oh, yeah? How do you feel about 1.4 trillion of your tax dollars going towards interest this year? You know, both parties complain they don't have enough money. President Trump wants more money for the military.

He wants $1.5 trillion for the military. Five times as much as we did in, I believe, 2001. You have the left wanting money for everything, but they have taken us to where $1.4 trillion goes into a black hole. nothing interest not towards the roads of the bridges the streets the grid

the elderly the infirm the kids health care schools what else nothing we need a third party in D.C

because these two parties are just freaking killing us and the only thing they are really good at is marketing to each side to the point where people walk into the voting booth and a Republican, they see an R whether the guy sucks or not or the woman sucks or not, they'll vote for them. The Ds will walk into a voting booth whether the woman or the man sucks or not, and just vote the D. Hell, there are people being voted for that have committed crimes. It took a lot to get rid of that

Nazi tattoo guy who beat the crap out of his girlfriend. Is there any wonder? Anyway, I'm mentioning this because today is, I believe, Election Day here in Florida. And boy, you should see all the ads being sent to us on TV and in text. What they're going to do for us. It's my favorite ones. What they're going to do for us. There's one ad of a man seems pretty nice saying how he's going to join Donald Trump and control spending and the debt and deficits. And I'm laughing my ass off. We'll let you know what happens tomorrow. You'll have a great evening drive carefully when you get home.

Do like I do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Hopefully better days ahead. They don't define us anyhow. Peace out.

All good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.