Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE BIG BROAD MARKET [07.16.2024]

Episode Date: July 16, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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subject to changes. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.

It is July 16th. It's a Tuesday. It's 2024. And man, oh man, oh man, do we have a lot to cover. going back to Thursday on the markets. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.

And if you don't follow us on Twitter, you probably should. And if you email us, just be nice. That's all. And we thank you all. 99.9% of you think we're nice. and in case you don't know, we cover the markets, the economy, jobs, your industry, Washington, D.C., as they continue to utter destruction, and whatever else comes to mind. Just want to start out real quickly. All the things we thought logically, we came on the show yesterday, did a few minutes on,

the attempted assassination of President Trump, and we just talked logic to you about something's not right. And we had a preface it by saying, we are not conspiracy theorists. We're not saying anything is up. What we are saying is, head should roll. I saw the head of the Secret Services.

I am not quitting. Really. and all I've heard in the last day and today was all the experts out mimicking exactly what I said to you about what the issues were with the security there. Insanity ruled. I cannot believe somebody was able to get off a shot so easily. they're doing an investigation. I'd like to say I trust it. Whatever. J.D. Vance.

So J.D. Vance was selected for vice president by President Trump. Yes, you are hearing J.D. Vance once said that President Trump was Hitler, which already gives them a black mark in my book. I have a big issue with anyone. I don't care who it is making Hitler famous again. For some reason, and especially the left, with Trump, Hitler this, Hitler that. And I've had conversations with people who have said to me, Trump is Hitler, and I would say right back to them, oh, he killed 12 million people, and they look at me, oh, and I'd say he killed 6 million Jews, and they look at me again. and they would say, oh, come on.

I go, well, you're the one who mentioned Hitler. Anyway, all nauseating. J.D. Vance, fine. Nobody gets elected as a vice president. Would I pick somebody else? Absolutely. But whatever. He's young.

The issue is he's inexperienced, but maybe that's good news. I could have been picked vice president. It would have been a much better choice. But President Trump does not know me. And we move forward. In Marxist land, it just gets worse. Not only has Marxist in chief proposed, and these are real proposals. I'm not making this up.

Besides the Trump tax cuts sunsetting, which means they would be gone, which means everybody. from $1 will get a tax hike, regardless of Joe Biden saying only above $400,000. Remember, he's a bigger liar than the last guy, and that is a high bar to get over. He is proposing long-term capital gains go from 20 to 44.6%. Right now, long-term capital gains over a year, you pay 20% tax. He wants it to go to 44.6%. on the high end, he's insane. Unrealized capital gains. They've proposed this. If you have an asset and at the end of the year you made 100 grand,

even if you didn't sell it, you're going to pay taxes on it. They're insane. They have floated but backed away on wealth taxes. Meaning, and by the way, does California have a wealth tax right now? I'm not even sure. They sicken me the government over there. But that would mean over a certain amount, even though you pay taxes on it, locally, state-wise, federally,

they'll tax you on the assets you have. They're insane. And as I've said to you, the great con that's being ignored, is President Biden took spending from $4.4 trillion federally, the year before COVID, we're like at seven now. Somewhere in there, somebody tells me it's six, five. If they tell me it's six, five, it's seven and higher. That's what he did.

And it's all debt. He's running two trillion dollar deficits now, but says he's lowered the debt. Boy, he couldn't last three minutes in a debate with me. And the second part of the con is coming after you. And I got newsfear. There ain't enough money the billionaires have to pay for all that he wants. I can take or leave. Let me put it best.

As you know, the two people I did not want running for president are now running for president. Knowing it's a binary choice, we can't have another four years of Joe Biden, what he's trying to do to this. country. That's my take. You cannot continue to extract from the people into your hands and just waste the hell out of it. Do you know they put up this pier in Gaza? We paid like a couple of hundred million. It broke down. 200 million bucks wasted completely. Do you know they've spent, I forgot how many billions on charging stations around the country? country, and they're seven now? Do you know in California, they spent billions on about

1,600 feet of rail for high-speed rail, catching my drift? So we will continue to pull no punches. I may have to tell you, as much as I am no fan, I may have to campaign for Trump to make sure that this guy doesn't win another four years, and especially if he'd have the House in the Senate. He is a Marxist. I don't use that as a pejorative. I mean it. He is a control freak. He does not believe in we the people. And you know that because all he keeps talking about is how he's working for the people. I'm working for the people, the American people. We're the United States of America. No, it's Washington, D.C. So we'll keep yapping away at it. pulling no punches, with no bias or ulterior motive except you.

And if Trump slips on a banana peel again, I'm going to cover it. By the way, finally, you know, the empathetic Mr. Wonderful Biden approved Robert F. Kennedy having Secret Service. Do you know they turned them down until what just happened? be careful of con artists, ladies and gentlemen. All right, we segue, because I don't think I have much else to talk about. The investigations on the murder, his head's blown off, which is just fine. Hopefully, he lived for 10 seconds and felt the pain. I believe they raised $5 million for the man who was murdered.

his family as well as the others that were shot. Looks like they're going to be okay. And I gather, I gather we're just in the first inning of trying to figure out what the hell happened and how it was able to happen because something don't make sense. And again, I'm not a conspiracy theorist

except for JFK. There's no doubt in my mind. and all you got it. Go look at the Zupruta tape and report back to me. Just look at it with no bias. They say he was shot by one person, even though bullets came from different places, and they were able to get away with it,

just like Jeff Epstein. Oh, sure, suicide. All right, up next, the markets. Please listen. This is the one only, Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

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call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

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Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge access. is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include

buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere, people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on

the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, Steely Dan, I hope you don't mind me saying two words. Holy crap. Holy crap.

I'm going to do it one more time. Holy crap. So let me explain stock markets for you. there's typically most of the time somewhat of an ebb and flow as a whole two steps up one step down

two steps up one step down two steps down one step up two steps down one step up and of course we look at the market sectors countries commodities

and names up until last week pretty much for months with an S months we're on the show and just saying the same thing over and over again because it was pretty easy to say number one

there are seven stocks that are making up 48% of the NASDAQ 133% of the S&P that's what we've been doing because the rest of the market's sucks. And when we say the rest of the market does not mean every name or every sector, but for the most part, downtrends, and it was in the transports, the housing, a ton of the retail, our left screen that I always talk about, you know my left screen, the one that has these

smaller to mid-cap tech stocks that have been bludgeoned through the last few years, the bare market never came back or been breaking down as of recent. Economically sensitive stocks, industrial types, building slash construction, just bare markets. Of differing levels. And when I say differing levels, for example, Lulu Lemon. Stocks crashed. And when I mean a crash, you drop 40% in six months. For me, that's a crash.

For example. But then you have things that are down 10, 15%. I don't call that big bear markets, but I call them downtrends. And I can avoid them because if they're not on what I call the launching pad. and what a launching pad is is if a stock traded between 90 and 100 for four months and then broke above 100. That's a launching pad. Now, it doesn't mean it's going to work. It can go to 105 and then back to 95 and they consider that a failed move.

But the hope is you get a launching pad and it turns into an uptrim. NVIDIA. one hell of a launching pad from January 8th. On January 5th of Friday, we said to you, just letting you know, Nvidia's been trading sideways for like five months, and a break above five, it was little less than 510,

would be a real big breakout for arguably the number one tech stock, and it broke out, and it went from pre-split 505 up to 970 before it went into another correction. So until last week, nothing to do with them. And this included small caps. Just so you know they have small cap indices.

They tell us they're for companies that have market caps up to $2 billion. And then there's mid-cap indices also. And they're between two in whatever. And of course, then you have the larger cap indices, which would be your NYSC or the S&P and stuff like that. So Thursday morning, and just so you know, going into Thursday, there was nothing going on with these areas. They were tight, but they were in near-term downtrends of differing levels and a lot of names in bad shape. And mind you, that's going into Thursday, and you know what Friday was, the start of earning season.

So we had this inflation report, whatever. And because of that inflation report, yields came down. And by the way, we're down to 4.167 now. And on Thursday, we just came on to this radio show and reported to you, we think there's, a chance and we're very careful with our words and I'll go I haven't listened to Thursday but I'm pretty sure this is a good paraphrasing of it good chance that the Russell the small and midcaps have finally woken up that's all that's what we said the Russell 2000 the midcap 400 and we just noticed it was a real what kind of

what's the best way put it had some umph to it you spell ump O OMPH. That's all we said. In the midst of that, the Adau had a very good day Wednesday. Okay, day Thursday. Better day Friday. But on Thursday, we stated, there's a chance here the small and midcaps have woken up. And as we did our scans Thursday night, okay, terrific. Let's see what comes. of it. A little better tone. And when we do our list of stocks, we didn't find much. Goldman Sachs looked pretty good. But they were porting. So nothing to do. For example, and then Friday, and then yesterday, and then today. Before I do the Dow, the Russell 2000 was up another 3.38%.

And in case you don't know, before Thursday, and remember, Thursday gapped up, the IWM, which represents the Russell 2000, was 203 in change. It closed the 224 in change today. In four days,

10% on the Russell 2000. From an area of the market that was dead, the mid-cap 400, close to 534, it's 568, 34 and 5. 6% in change in four days. Very impressive. What was even more impressive, though. Regional banks are up 12% in four days.

What? We'll continue along these lines. Give us, give you our thoughts. I'm going to Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com. Com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One VentureX card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprinker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbub. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Regional banks up 12% in four days. At a new yearly high. Still way below March of 22. But wow. Housing related. And may I state for the record,

the housing related was down to the 200-day moving average, only down about, let's see, the ITB, home construction had gone from 116 down to 97, 18%. That 18% went from March to July, three and a half, four months. You're almost back to the highs in four days. From the close Wednesday, 100 to almost 115. The XHB and the ITB did about the same. Both home construction and all that funky stuff and home builders. The XHB home builders is in new yearly highs after correcting about 15% over four-month

period. In four days, got it back and more. The economically sensitive stocks, we always bring up certain names, United Rentals, at the close, Wednesday was 640 in change at 7.43 in four days into an all-time high in advance of their earnings reports. Remember, this is one of our favorite economically sensitive names. What's our other one? Caterpillar. Close Thursday at 3.30. I take it back.

It closed Wednesday at 328. It's 360 in four days. 10% move in a big down name. Just letting you know. We saw the oomph move Thursday. we would have no clue that they would be jumping on top of each other at, I got to use the terminology,

any price, vertically moving these things up. Let me stop there. We use these little sentiment indicators, which are secondary. They are off the roof now as far as we should get some sort of moderation. Didn't get it today.

And by the way, the number was pretty high coming into today. And by the way, the financials. Bank America reports minus six earnings, flat sales into new high ground today, up 5%. Goldman up another 10 in the Dow. PNC, regional bank, reports a minus minus. 2% earnings up 4.7%. All we can tell you, the big money is flowing into all the areas that were dead, and man, it is flowing fast and flowing swift. I can tell you on a technical basis, nice constructive pullbacks, all these things should be bought. I think this is probably the start of a

move of Revenge of the Nerds. That started just Thursday. It's only four days into it, which takes me to the Dow. Now may I state for the record, the small caps are up twice as good as the Dow today, but the Dow is up 742.

Now, a couple of things along those lines that are of import. As you know, the Dow is very price-weighted. as you know that in the Dow you have something like a Intel at 34 bucks but a United Health at

550 which means United Health what is 15, 16 times more important to the Dow Index United Health was up 33 and a half on their earnings today

and what they did today, and this is not conspiracy talk, we're just telling you facts. United Health, the number one important stock in the Dow. Number two is Goldman. Number three is Caterpillar. Number four is Home Depot. They accounted for 500 Dow points today. 500 Dow points of the 742. The Dow cleanly broke out, just describing it for you, above the May highs.

Did it a couple of days ago, but today was the move. And one can say there was a high late March, early April. So the Dow with a very clean breakout, launching pad off of, let's call it four to five, months of range with a lot of ugly Dow stocks but when you have the most the four most important names as far as size go up 15 11 11 and 33 is your 500 Dow points by the way even Boeing was up seven today in the financials American Express up almost six but they do report earn I believe tomorrow, all we can tell you all in all, all the areas that are dead have woken up and have woken up. I try to never underestimate anything. Wow. This is an outlier move in the lower beta and the small and mid. It's like

You just squeezed a plastic bottle and everything shot out. And whether it's W.W. Granger, economically sensitive, it went up $45. It's in $1,000 stock. So it's not as good as I'm saying. United Rentals, Parker Hanifan, up 23. Parker Hanofin is up from 500 to 568 and 4 days, maybe 5. these were dead even deeper

bare market names have come up strong whatever is at work here I couldn't give a crap I don't care why we're just letting you know the Dow broke out today the small caps

broke out Friday the midcaps broke into new high ground today yes today gold broke out of a three-month range today. The industrials, the X-L-I, broke out of about of a four-month range today. I mention housing.

I mention the regionals. Do I need to say more? And by the way, the housing stocks, somebody emailed me, one of my buddies and said, what did the housing stocks cure cancer today? I mean some very strong moves. And I made double digits in housing stocks in the last year and a half twice. Didn't get a chance to jump on these because Thursday was the day they jumped, but would never believe 15% in four days back to the highs so quickly.

And now what we're going to be watching for, listen carefully. Because I don't know if we're going to get. Momentum is momentum. And may I state for the record it was momentum today. Let's hope for a few days of pulling back. We'll be honest. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game change. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Spreaker

makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might

someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Bester's Edge. With Gary Culper. By the way, the other part of the equation, which is quite amazing, this is all right before earnings reports. one of the weakest truckers was J.B. Hunt. And on Wednesday it closed at 160.

It closed today at 176, up 10%. They reported earnings. The earnings sucked. It's down six bucks in the aftermarket. Probably end up tomorrow because of momentum. Whatever. I don't know what else to tell you. Just very strong.

a ton of regional banks are at a yearly high now and that's what's been driving the small caps and some of the I'm not going to mention but as I went through the scans just a bunch of symbols I have never seen in a bunch of regional banks that trade 200,000 shares a day from different areas of the country whatever

now there's been a little bit of I don't know repercussions. No, not repercussions. What's Where's the money flowing from? Well, just letting you know Microsoft, in a Dow up 740 was down $6.65

today, Microsoft. Just let you know. Breaking the 21-day moving average. Nvidia today was down $2. Breaking the 21-day moving average. With the Dow

up 742. Facebook was down $7 today. Breaking the 50 day with the Dow up 742. Huh, broadcom was down. Google was down three bucks. What gives? It's simple. Gargantuan major rotation out of those names that were doing the trick. We're very careful about what we tell you here. We sold our meta, our Microsoft, what else, NVIDIA in the last week or so because of the change of complexion, but no way shape or form did we think this would. And by the way, meta is really in trouble as a stock.

at this juncture, pending earnings. Microsoft, under pressure, Nvidia, under pressure. So a definitive changing of the guardware those seven stocks, not as great. Apple was only up 10 cents today, Amazon was only up 20 cents today.

We'll see what tomorrow brings. Just a very strong day. The S&P was only up. the equivalent of about, I'll call it, 275 Dow points. How can that be? Those seven stocks are on the weaker side today. When seven stocks equals 33% of the NASDAQ 100, excuse me, the S&P and 48% of the NASDAQ 100,

it could be meaningful. With the Dow up 742, the NASDAQ 100 was up 11. What a change. With the NASDAQ 100 only up 11, transport were up 517 points. And if you want to know change of complexion, in four days the transports have gone from 15,000 to 163. That's about 8 in change. You went from the outhouse to the highs of the past six months. in four days.

It took four days to get back what four months did on the transports. And I got somebody asking me today, did anything change in the world? I hear people calling it the Trump trade. Ah, okay. I hear people saying,

well, the guarantee that the Fed's going to lower rates. Well, I could have guaranteed that with the 10 year at 4-2 and them at 5 and a quarter, maybe it was the finality of the market believing, oh, they're now going to play catch-up, that's doing it. Okay, I don't care. We just follow the bouncing ball.

And out of nowhere on Thursday, the gap to the upside, and a relentless move in all the areas of the market. Most all, that were just dead. And the transport's case and point about as ugly as ugly can be going into Thursday. And just poof, 517 points. We'll see whether a J.B. Hunt causes any price. problems tomorrow because of their crappy numbers. I suspect not so much.

Remember also when the transport FedEx came in with a whopping 1% sales growth, and the stock was up 40 bucks. This was about three weeks ago. Not so sure I have anything else to add except a bazillion more stocks, companies to report earnings. Markets are very overboard here. About as much as I've seen. A four-day move for lower beta about as stretched as I've seen.

It did not stop it today. And that's your story. And a big wow. That all said, I'm done. Have a great evening. Drive carefully. when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. I am not sure of TV tomorrow, but stay well and be well. Same time radio show. Thanks for joining us.

Peace out. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to.

change. See Capital One.com for details.