Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE BIG DOW [10.30.2023]
Episode Date: October 30, 2023https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom, your host day.
Thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is October 30th, 2003.
Hope you had a good weekend.
I did not for one reason and one reason only.
My New York football giants had won the game
and then they gave the game away.
Is that the best way I can explain it?
The lowly Jets offense, the game was over.
Graham Ganoe, who never misses field goals,
misses a 35-yarder.
The Jets would have to gone down and got a touchdown
and said all they had to do was a field goal
and how they just went right down field with no time is beyond me
and then they won an overtime because the Jets lost their quarterback,
and the stupid coach is not inventive enough,
so they did not even pass the ball.
They had minus seven yards passing in the game.
And you know what the coach said?
Well, we were going old school.
Gosh, my teams.
What is with my teams?
But besides that, I had a good weekend.
You know what I did this weekend?
I hung with Winston.
I hung with Winston.
You know your dogs, right?
My dog loves me.
I walk a step, he walks a step.
I walk a step the other way.
He walks a step the other way.
And, you know, I read this thing about how you know a dog trusts you.
That's my dog.
It's the greatest.
And he's 12 years old now.
He's got cancer.
But the good news is he was diagnosed last November,
and they said you better do chemo and we didn't because he didn't like
the chemo. Yeah, he told us. And it's 12 months later. They took everything. I mean, he looks,
he's fine. But we know there's just a couple years left because usually about 14, right?
Anyway, I'm going to be so depressed. Okay. Let's finish with one more morbid thing.
I continue to get email after email, I guess because I'm Jewish about Israel.
but not about any more about what Hamas did,
even though I was asked a thousand times,
but the reactions and the schools and the protests
and some Americans being interviewed
and saying actually asked the question,
are you happy with Hamas did with these,
and describing how they murdered?
Well, they did it in defense.
And I'm just, I've been asked a lot.
And my only answer, and it's not a hedge is I don't have an answer.
I don't know how you root for applaud, depraved animals.
And I already explained some of it.
We just found out something new that they did.
I don't even want to say it on radio.
I don't even want to say it.
My lovely, wonderful producer, I don't want her to have to close her ears.
I mean, it's that bad.
So I'm not, but you can go read into it.
All I know is, is that to try and understand what's going on in these colleges,
what keeps me strong is they are the 1%.
You know, 99% of the people out there are not doing this.
are not thinking this.
But the 1% are loud, and they're out there.
And you had students having to hold themselves up in a library
because they were afraid for their safety.
You're reading about this airport in Russia?
I mean, that's who gives a crap, the Russians.
They're applauding what Russia's doing in Ukraine.
They asked the kid, the kid said, I'm here to murder Jews.
You think Russia's going to arrest them?
Anyway, just pray that everything gets done right.
Just remember, if Israel put down their arms, they would be wiped off the face of the earth.
If the terrorists put down their arms, there'd be peace on the land.
We know that as fact.
Okay.
Now that we got rid of the morbid...
Oh, wait a minute, one more.
Matthew Perry for friends.
I'm bringing that up because I got a lot of e-mail.
on him. Why you email me about a guy on Friends? Anyway, never met him. I've never watched Friends.
So last night I decided, I'm going to watch the series. There's 236 episodes, though. I looked.
We watched two episodes. You know, you can tell in the first two episodes, they have great chemistry.
So I'm going to watch that. Ladies and gentlemen, I don't know why he died. One could only think, you know, maybe a heart attack.
The build up of drugs and alcohol.
You never know.
Parents tell your kids drinking is not cool.
Drugs are not cool.
As I've told you, if I have five drinks a year, it's a big year for me.
And the only time I'll have a drink is at Nobu when I go to Nobu restaurant
because they got pretty cool cocktails, martinis.
And I only get the fruity kind.
But I've never understood drinking alcohol to excess.
I've had people who work for me die of pancreatitis, put them into rehab a few times and it couldn't help.
We do know addiction is a war.
I saw it firsthand.
But parents get a hold of your kids.
Get a hold of your kids.
That's all I can tell you.
Okay, now we're done with the morbid.
Damn, that was a lot of morbid, right?
So let me tell you what we just did.
let me tell you what I just did from 335, I believe, to 355 p.m. Eastern standard time.
I went on and did about a 20-minute webcast, sent it to our peeps.
The webcast was to go through the Dow 30, and I was just going to stop there.
Just the 30 names in the Dow, and just going to stop there.
But then we ended up doing the big tech, because it's the big tech.
And we did a few other things.
But why would I do the Dow 30 before the close and send it to my peeps?
The Dow was up 511 points today.
The Dow was up 511 points.
I thought it was a bare market, Gary.
Well, it is a bare market.
Drop 3,000.
Rally 511.
So we go through the Dow 30 and we find that United Health, the most important name, has a pretty good pattern, not in an uptrend, but needs to break above like 540 something. That would help. Walmart, not in an uptrend, but good pattern.
IBM had a good reaction, but not in an up trend, but could try. McDonald's was up for in change today, had a good reaction to its
earnings and I must tell you the earnings are pretty good.
Goldman Sachs was up $10.92
today.
But it was down $56
over the last five weeks.
And then we went through Disney and Home Depot
and J.P. Morgan, which was blasted Friday.
And we just got it going through.
And what we realized is the Dow was up 511.
today, but I don't have any Dow stocks and uptrens.
I got a few that are in trading range and not bad, but most everything is in downtrends.
So what gives?
Why would the Dow go up 511 today?
Well, I don't know why, but I can tell you that the Dow just was 34,147, 9 days ago, and is still down 1,300 points.
1200. So it was down 1,700 points in 8 trading days. That's why. Now, could today change the playing field?
I don't think one day would change the playing field, but it can be a start if we continue to get better.
But I also noticed a couple other things about today. That's not necessarily great news, but we'll take any update. I know.
first off
I think we had two new yearly highs
that's number one
number two with a strong up day
we still had five six hundred and seven
new yearly lows
how can that be well that be
and
the Russell 2000 growth
and the Russell 2000
were hardly up
and only ended up
in late in the afternoon
so we'll call it
We're not going to argue with the Dow up 511.
Never would we argue with that.
We just want to let you know it's one day.
And the reason we wanted to start with that
because we know what you're going to hear tonight
from the mainstream.
And the Dow is up five.
We're letting you know that up next we'll let you know on Investors Edge.
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Time for an underwear refreshes now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.
Tommy John, comfort perfected.
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Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
So, as I was saying, as we go through the 30, we got Apple that reports Thursday is not an uptrent.
It's in a downtrend.
Disney's down 60% in a couple of years, major bear market downtrend.
Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, three.
A lot of big downtrends.
But we'll take any up day.
Just remember what we tell you about bearish phases.
Up two down four.
Up two down four.
Up two down four.
Hopefully today starts up four down two.
I can't say I'm there yet.
We're always hopeful.
And just remember, we do this with no bias.
We're always wanting the market in a bearish phase,
bare market to turn. It's one day. But we'll take it. 4-1Ks went up today. Dow's up 511. S&P 49, NASDAQ, 146, NASDAQ, 155. Transports 270. Let's pick apart the
transports. The transports are up 270 points today to 13-826. Got that? It was 15-2-33-9 days ago.
it's still down 1,400 points from 9 days ago.
That's what we mean by,
down 2, up 2, down 4, but in this case, up 1 down 8.
Not to mention the transports topped in July at 16.7.
It's 13.8.
That's 2,900 points on 167.
What was that, 18%?
since actually early August.
So they bounced them.
The Russell 2000.
Hardly budged today.
Hardly budged today.
Closed at 1647, July 2003.
That's 3506 points on 2000.
almost 18%.
Of course they're going to bounce
every now and then.
The all-important semiconductors,
3875,
at the high,
late July.
Close at 3,185 today.
Last I looked at 690 points,
right?
On 3875,
16%.
And as we know, and as we've stated, it's being held up by a few biggies because a bunch of them are just absolutely trashed.
The semiconductor index has its own big seven, just like the NASDAQ 100 NASDAQ has their big seven.
So before you get all excited, but it was a good day.
New yearly highs in the market.
I think it's smart that I do this.
Give you this list each day.
on the NASDAQ.
And by the way, we're not making this up.
And we will not mention, I see a few
SPACs that trade around $10 and move
back and forth because they don't really trade.
We will not give out biotechs with no sales.
So, new highs on the NASDAQ today.
You ready?
I don't have one.
That is correct.
New highs on the New York.
Decker's Outdoor Footwear.
It's just Decker's Outdoor.
D-E-C-K.
That's one.
I have a low-volume education company.
Stride, it's called, simple L-R-N.
That's two.
I have Ad-Tellem,
symbol ATGE, another low-volume education company.
That's three.
I have three new yearly highs on the New York and NASDAQ
in the whole freaking market.
Just let you know.
And quite the amazing over 600 new yearly lows.
And by the way, they are new yearly lows.
They're in the red.
Ford, New Yearly Low today.
Something called Realty Income, symbol O.
New Yearly Low.
Retail properties.
General Motors, New Yearly Low.
Southwest Airlines, New Yearly Low.
Morgan Stanley.
Well, that finished up today.
so I can't really say it's New Yearly Low, Block, which used to be called Square.
I don't know why they change the name, New Yearly Low.
I can go on and on.
A lot of New Yearly lows.
So good day today on the Dow.
Good day today.
No argument.
It's a good day.
Not going further than that.
And of course there's about a thousand earnings reports.
By the way, no really.
There's like a thousand earnings reports this week, this week, including the Almighty Apple,
which is expecting to do $1.39 versus $1.29, that would be about 7.5% increase in earnings,
which means they'll beat, which means it'll be a little acceleration of earnings growth.
We'll see how it reacts.
$15.6 billion, every dollar it moves up or down, which is insane how big they're
they are. God bless. What a great story. You know, some people pee all over success? I think you've got to
embrace it and learn from it. What a company. And not always perfect. You know what they do with
the batteries, right? You know, they make sure your phones, you know, slow down later so you get a new one.
They do that. It doesn't thrill me. But anyway, that's this week. And I think I've got to
before the open that's in the Dow amgen before the open that's in the Dow just a long list
advanced micro devices after the closed tomorrow important semiconductor and on and on and on and on and on
Qualcomm that's been dead meat and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on
so that's kind of sort of your introduction to today's market just keep your feet on the ground
I know. It's up 5-11. We'll take it. Believe me, we'll take every penny. We want defined trends to the upside. Not down two, down four, up two. We'll need more days like today. Oil prices. This is good news down another 270 today. Nothing but good news when that happens. Am I right in saying that?
270. Much more to come up next. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
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and their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer.
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Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for
25% off your first order with code comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
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Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process.
simple. You record your show,
upload it once, and Spreaker distributes
it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts,
Spotify, and about a dozen apps
your cousin's swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps
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well, more microphones.
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spreeker.com. Spreaker,
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With Gary Colbomb.
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You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And walk once again to Investors Edge.
If you recall, I had this big prom with Home Depot a long while back.
It took two months and three or four separate deliveries to get a working refrigerator
from my elderly parents in New York City.
And the only way it got done and the only reason it got done is because I got a
hold of the CEO's office.
And the CEO's head person handled it.
Home Depot, you know, they do $150 billion in revenue.
I gather they do something right.
But the last four-quarter sales plus six,
zero or minus four and a minus two.
Last Monday, I ordered a truck from Home Depot.
They acknowledged it and took my deposit for me to pick up at 8 a.m. yesterday morning.
Saturday night at 6 p.m.
They didn't call me.
They didn't text me.
They emailed me.
Who knows if I would have looked at my email?
Oh, we don't have the truck.
and I'm just thinking to myself, what gives?
It was born Buffett that says it takes a lifetime to build up a good reputation,
but minutes to lose it or seconds, something to that effect.
Hopefully I'm just the dope.
And I got to tell you, every time I go into Home Depot, the people there are terrific.
I think their systems are screwy, especially with appliances that happened with me, the system.
and to think that I needed a truck from moving, order it on a Monday for Sunday at 8 a.m.
And you get an email at Saturday 6 p.m. Oh, we don't have it.
Just so weird. And we hate telling these stories.
I mean, the public storage story is the best one.
Do you know after I moved out of my public storage space that they raised my price five times?
So as I'm leaving, the lady says to me, you didn't tell me you wanted to vacate.
I go, yeah, I did.
In fact, I was here two weeks ago, and I said, I'm vacating because you guys keep raising my price.
And then I said to her, do you realize now I'm leaving?
And you lost this amount of revenue a month?
And you'll replace it, but do you know your advertising to replace it at 66% lower for a new person than your client that you already have?
you know what she says to me well if i knew you were leaving i would have just had i would just sign you up
for a different space and just have you move from one space to another i said i was told you i was
leaving i must have not heard you but just on principle is that the screwiest business on earth
it's a monopoly you know these storage places they have monopolies and they know once you're in
that you don't want to move unless you're moving you have to they've been they
raise my price the first time they said it was for inflation yeah okay sure then a second time then a
third they went from 156 to let's see 190 to 220 to 250 to 250 to 90 then finally i got fed up at
320 a hundred percent increase in less than two years for a storage space and then i see their
advertising that same storage space that they wanted to charge me 324 now for 110 bucks
and by the way i'm not making this up and i explained that
it to her. So I moved.
And I got another place
with a different company for 110
bucks. I'm going to save
2,000, by the way, guaranteed
for the year and I'm going to be out in the year.
I'm going to save 2,400
bucks. About.
2,500.
And they could have kept me for 290.
Man, oh man.
Quite interesting, huh?
And here's the thing.
Public storage stocks since 03.
It's gone from 30 to 200.
130. It must be doing something right.
When I was in college and I used one of these storage spaces, I looked at my roommate and said,
we should own a bunch of these. Man, I should have done that.
Anyway, that's my little public storage story.
On the good end, I had a chick-fil-a sandwich. I have once a month, and it's still as good
as can be. That's my good business story. Okay. So let me tell you what else we did today.
as the Dow was going up 500 points.
With no bias at around 2 p.m., we scanned 1,800 stocks.
And what we look for, well, the Dow is up 500 points today,
can we add any names to the good side of the equation?
In other words, it wasn't acting too great,
or maybe it was just sitting there and now it's starting to go.
With the Dow P 500 today?
I couldn't add one.
I added a couple of names from earnings reports, though.
One is called XPO.
Transportation Logistics was breaking down in the last week,
was up 10 today to 77 bucks.
On get this, a 7% drop in earnings
and only a 2% increase in sales.
But what do I know?
So I added that one to my little list.
That was not on it.
It's really about it.
I did look at Western Digital,
which finished up 283,
but I'm not doing it.
I'm not going near it.
And the reason is, very simple.
The reason it was up,
they're splitting the company up.
They lost $1.76.
share and sales were down 26% no thank you very much and that's it and on a daylight today i move
some names off my front screen onto my crap screen so we lost some names today that's how weird it was
i'm getting close to adding back Costco but needs work and a few others on a good date like today
you see some things trying to rev up.
But overall, man, there's just not a lot of good-looking stocks.
But I repeat, a thousand earnings reports this week.
And I'm going to be going through them left and right and right and left.
And hopefully things show up.
I'm sure some are going to go bad.
Some are going to go good.
I'm looking at AMKR getting smacked in the aftermarket, but ANAET up in the aftermarket.
So my job, I got a long evening ahead of me and mornings.
Ooh, lattice semiconductor closed at 67, 58 in the aftermarket.
Ooh, that's not going to help in the morning.
This is how we roll.
Simple as that.
Stay ahead of the game.
work our tails off, close our eyes, hold our nose and pray.
And that's that.
We hope you're listening.
We mean business.
And time and time again, we have proven that the hard work does the trick.
Here's one, monolithic power.
Close at 404.
I got at 438 in the aftermarket.
Only one problem.
It was $513 bucks 10 days ago.
So you always got to be careful where things come from.
Just remember that.
I'm always amazed at more people don't look where a stock has come from.
That's what matters most.
You just got to work at it.
You just got to put the time in.
And you got to know, you absolutely got to know,
the difference between an up trend and a downtrend.
and if you don't, you may want to buy some bonds, which by the way, 4.875 on the 10 year.
Up a little bit today.
With the Fed coming Wednesday.
By the way, it wasn't tongue in cheek when I said the Fed leaking caused the market to go up today.
I said it in my webcast, I'm saying it now.
I never used to believe Chicani was going on
in government and Wall Street
Oh, there's a ton
Up next
This that and the other thing or whatever else
This is the one only investor's edge
Guys, it's no use putting it off
The best time for an underwear refresh is now
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit
That stays put all day
Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch
than competing brands
And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly
is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable
than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code
Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you
by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital
One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited
double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen,
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,
meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today.
at spreeker.com.
Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
Investors Edge with Gary Culpa.
And well, once again to Investor's Edge.
Um, in the news, and this is what we mean.
And we don't pull any punches.
As you know, with the Israel thing, with the hospital and the bombing, the New York Times was gleeful in like in three seconds taking the word of Hamas, animal terrorists, and just posting up that Israel bombs a hospital.
But this is how bad the New York Times is.
And, you know, all we really ask for, you want to be biased.
Go ahead.
But don't be ass clowns.
And what we mean by that, don't cause ridiculous harm.
Here's a headline from the New York Times.
How years of Israeli failures on Hamas led to a devastating attack.
Now, we're not making that headline up.
That is a headline from the New York Times.
Israeli failures on Hamas led to a devastating attack.
Not that these animals, these depraved animals, are just a bunch of murdering, scum-sucking,
lifeless pieces of dog vomit that did unspeakable things to infants, children, teenagers, women, men, adults, elderly.
Israeli failures led to it.
That's their headline.
that's what we have to deal with.
It's amazing to watch.
And you want to give benefit of the doubt.
But this is what we deal in.
This is what the hell we deal in.
Just that in a nutshell.
In an absolute nutshell.
And it's so depressing why?
They're the paper of record.
They're the paper of record.
In the news,
my housing update, which we do every now and then.
My housing update.
And we're using a few areas of Florida for housing update.
And Florida's been one of those areas that have been pretty decent.
And of course, why a lot of people have been moving here.
We just want to let you know on our housing update, prices are coming down.
That said, from Fantasyland.
number one there's not a lot of movement
number two
a lot of pending sales have been going by the wayside
number three
there's not a lot of movement we think for one reason
and one reason only
I'm seeing houses being put up for sale
in Florida for two and a half million
that were one and a half million
two years ago
not making this up the coming down
now. Fantasy land is ending.
In order to move homes, they're going to
know that they're going to lower prices.
The reason why there's not a lot of inventory,
Jay Powell, another one of his distortions.
I didn't even realize that some people got
less than 3% mortgages.
Who the hell wants an 8%?
But, listen carefully, write this down.
Your host, smart real estate guy too.
If inventory starts to pick up, and that's an if, it's not a prediction, you're going to see housing prices come down markedly, especially on the higher fantasy land end.
I saw a $5.5 million house come down a million.
I laughed when I saw the 5-5 anyhow, and probably it shouldn't be $3 million.
And just because I'm speaking higher priced ones, that's where I want to know the most.
But houses that go for 300,000 only move 10, 15 grand.
I'm trying to figure out the housing market from the top down.
And where we're seeing inventory build, there's some areas in Florida, inventories are built.
Everybody's lowering.
But they're lowering slow.
Not fast.
I will let you know if that changes.
I suspect
since every one of Powell's bubbles
croaked and crashed
I suspect
this will be the same
I hope it's not true
I hope it does not happen
but every one of his bubbles
forced something
whether it was the meme stocks
forced things up
crashed
the NFTs forced things up
crashed. The 23,000 coins that I'm told is it was actually 30,000 crashed. And all kinds of
other stuff crashed. I'm not saying real estate's crashing. I'm saying I think some areas
are 30% too high. 30% yes. I think some mid to high end areas all over Florida are 30% too high.
to sell. That doesn't mean they won't sell at these levels because you never know if you find a buyer.
A price is as good as a buyer. But when all is said and done, I'm letting you know, I think the market's going to resolve itself.
As always, we'll let you decide. But I am now seeing a definitive movement towards prices coming down in differing areas.
is in Florida.
In the next few days, I'm going to be looking at Arizona and California.
I do know in California high end and ridiculous high end.
I mean, average price in some cities is a joke.
I think there's going to be a real comeuppance.
Why?
Because nobody wants to sell.
because eventually they will.
And it's going to come quick and fast.
Again, we hope we're wrong.
You'll have a great evening, drive carefully when you get home, do like we do.
Quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise, have a great one.
Everybody, take care.
Bye, bye.
Have a good night.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,
Go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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