Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE BIG GAP [09.19.2024]

Episode Date: September 19, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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for place to go to Existence. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum.

I'm your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Thursday, the 19th of September, 2004. Hope you having a good day. Hope you had a good evening. in case you don't know this is serious talk on everything that affects you.

And unfortunately, there's a lot that affects us these days. And you know what I'm talking about. But that's for a little bit later. We'll talk markets, the economy, your job, your industry, debt and deficits, the election. And boy, oh boy, that really going to matter. And much more. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now.

And if you don't follow us on Twitter, you should, which is now X. And if you want to email me, just be nice. And I want to start out. We're going to do all markets until later. I want to start out with, interesting enough, the contacts I got last night all were asking the same question. And basically was almost all of Wall Street said, and I hate bringing this up, but it's important, you'll get my point. all of Wall Street was saying that Jay Powell was going to lower his rate a quarter point. But we were certain he was going to lower his rate a half a point.

What did we know? Was it just a guess? Was it an educated guess? Did we have any insider information? No, we didn't have any inside information. You know how we say to you here? we do everything with no agenda, no ulterior motive or bias. This is true.

So we believe that enables us to see things a little bit clearer or clearer than most. And unfortunately, I never used to be a conspiracy theorist when it came to our government, but 35 trillion of debt has me thinking there's a lot of nefarious going on. And it's not just that, it's the insider trading these politicians are doing that we would go to jail for. The just lie after lie after lie after lie on a daily basis. I mean, the list goes on and on. So when we're told something by somebody in D.C., three words, grain of salt. And just remember, let's be fair, we all have a bias.

We're all biased. We all have our beliefs. We all have our reactions to things. But it's what we do with that bias that kind of matters, especially when you work in government. So why will we so sure of a half point and we got it right? It's simple. We believe and we have no evidence and we'll never find any evidence.

the Fed leaked last Wednesday, it was a half point. And they can tell us, oh, that's impossible. We didn't have the meetings to this week. That doesn't matter. These people are talking to each other all the time. They know what they're going to be doing. They know what they're going to be coming up with. And it's my job to figure it out.

Well, two things happened on that Wednesday. number one the Dow was down 700 points during the day that's number one the Dow was down 700 points during the day they were beaten the crap out of the things economic building slash construction slash machinery and the like it was based on whatever the market was believing at that time. And by the close, the Dow was up 100, and all those things reversed to the upside. That was last Wednesday. On top of that, last Wednesday, the leak first goes to certain peeps in the media, certain peeps. And we noticed the few predicting a half a point. We believe now that they're at a half a point. And I'm thinking to myself,

they were told a half a point. And them being the media being who they are, Wall Street found out what they found out. We do not think the Fed would leak to Wall Street. We think the Fed would leak to the media, that leak to the politicians that leak to Wall Street. So all of a sudden, at the same time, those certain media people that we know are talking heads of the Fed, are telegraphing a half a point, and out of nowhere, you get this big, gargantuan reversal in the most important areas of the market that would benefit the most from a half point versus a quarter point. That's all. That's all.

And since Wednesday, the strongest stocks have been building slash cement slash the caterpillar types and the like. Nothing changed with their businesses. It's not like a half point versus a quarter point's going to change their business. Why would their stocks do what they're doing now? It's because the market has its way to react to certain things. It's all well known. And that is, when they go easier money, economically sensitive stocks will lift.

Because the theme, the thought process is at that. time they will benefit the most as the cost of capital perceived goes down. Also getting that lift will be the financials, which also reversed even after Goldman and J.P. Morgan reported some crap. That's the story. And it's unfortunate. I have no proof. I'll never be able to prove it. I won't say it out loud on TV because then I'll have to get into a pissing match, but I could say it to my peeps. And if anybody comes back, I'll say exactly what I'm telling you. I have no evidence. But it's my opinion.

Is that okay to have my opinion? So yesterday we had the Fed. And they did their half point. and the market had a vicious reversal to the downside, where typically you're going to get follow-through to the downside, after a vicious reversal as such. The Dow opened up 500 points today. The Dow opened up 500 points today.

Not making it up. And when I say it opened up 500 points on the first bar in the market today was up 500 points. It finished up 522. So it opened up 500 and did nothing the rest of the day. The NASDAQ, the very weak NASDAQ, the underperforming NASDAQ opened up. I'm going to call it 17,985. Up about 412 points it opened up. Finished up 440.

So, big gap to the upside, and as an index, not do much. That's what happened today. And I got a bunch of questions. How does that happen? A beats the hell out of me. but what we do know there is a definitive component of what happens in Europe and Asia heads on over to us. Well, why wouldn't our reversal to the downside head on over to them? My answer to that is again, beats the heck out of me.

I don't know. I wish I did. So very good day in the market today. A gap to the upside, which means just so you're not. know what a gap is, let's use a stock, closes it 100, opens it 120. Because something material happened overnight, news, what have you. I'll explain a little more. We'll do more of the markets. I'm Gary. This is the one-n-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kallbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investor's Edge. We're not just handsome radio.

people, we manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59.

That's 8-8-8-5-9. That's 888-4-22-55-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script. the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.

Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication.

And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. Reach for Vital Proteins, Collagen and Protein Shake and Chocolate with 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides. It helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints in a smooth, ready-to-drink shake.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, here's what sucks.

And of course, if you've owned the Vanguard S&P for 20 years and don't do what we do, it doesn't matter to you. And God bless you. You have the Fed, which you're basically waiting on. Because unfortunately, they matter. As we have told you, if I was the president, there would not be a central bank in the form that, they're at. They would not be able to do the things that they have done. It would be quite moderated down. And instead of six meetings, every six weeks meetings, it would be 10 weeks. Give them five a year, maybe even four, 12 weeks. Yeah. So back on that. So you have the Fed,

which you're waiting on and then the market gets hot off the Fed and rallies up quickly and you're up by the way I should mention also the close the high yesterday on the Dow was 41 981 so really we just got back the high today 41 981 and 100 points that's what we got back today just let you know. The NASDAQ, I think, probably better. Yeah, because the NASDAQ was weak. Anyway, what a gap is, let's use a stock, closed at 100, and opens it 120. That means you can't do anything with the stock from 100 to 120. So if you wanted to buy, you're paying 120. You couldn't pay $119, 18, 17, all the way down to 100. And of course, if that same stock at 100 opens down at 80 and you own it, you can't sell it between 80 and 100. You are down to 80 bucks.

Well, today, the whole market opened up 500 points on the Dow. NASDAQ will call it 412, 410, let's round it out. So you didn't get much after the fact. But you got a lot of movement. And what I have to do tonight, what moved above range? We told you met if it moves above 545. It finished up 21 today to 559. It needs the stick.

For example, Spotify broke above range. The S&P finished above the old high. Now, again, it must stick. just because price breaks out. You know, if you hear the words breaking out, it doesn't mean it works. You can break out and fail. But that was a pretty damn good move.

And it was off fed. Tomorrow's another day. Beats the heck out of me. But it was kind of sort of broad base today. You know what? Didn't go today? You know, it was weak? The defensive areas.

Where was the strength into last one? Wednesday. Food, beverage, tobacco, household products, utilities, medical, managed care. Insurance. What are they? They're defensive. They're what is known as recession resistant. They were the weakest today because the market has now moved to, and let me be clear, the market is reacting to a central bank taking rates down and saying there's more to come, which, potentially doesn't mean it's going to spurs on economic growth, even though they told us yesterday everything's great. Why would they need to spur on economic growth if everything's great? Whatever. So we're just letting you know very tough last two months, a pain in the rear last few days. And again, you've got to wait for the Fed, but here's what we saw today. Remember Goldman Sachs got killed when they said their trading numbers really bad, right back above the 50 day and back in that range. We'll see if it decides to break out of the range. Goldman Sachs up 19 bucks today.

It's the second highest price in the Dow. 19 times 6 and 7.8s. Well, you add it up. What is like 130 Dow points? Just Goldman Sachs. Caterpillar up $18 today. Coming up the right side. And Caterpillar last Wednesday was rolling over down, guess where? That big, gargantuan, all-important, longer-term moving average to 200-day,

which, by the way, it bounced off of it almost to the penny. In fact, by a dollar. 326 versus 327. And you know what it's done since that day and you're talking about leak? The lower that day for Caterpillar was 326. Let's use Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Seven trading days. You want to know a leak?

326 to 373 for Caterpillar. There's your leak. Just those two with 37 Dow points. Just those two. and you can hand it up. It's 200-something doubt points. Matter of fact, it's about 230, 240, depending on which abacus you use.

Semiconductor is very weak, but economically sensitive. By the way, they're still relatively weak, but they were up 207 points today. By the way, on a gap. That gapped up also. In fact, it gapped up at 5,051, closed at 5,066. I didn't even realize that the Sox semiconductors gapped up 190 points today. That's a big move for that bad boy.

As we always say to you, tomorrow beats the hell out of me. But everything economically sensitive went from outhouse to penthouse last Wednesday. At the same time, out of nowhere, the betting markets and the media, Certain. Yeah, we think we're going to have a half point. And there's your story. And we'll see where it takes us. Now, just because they do a half versus a quarter, is that enough to keep this going? I don't know. What I do know when I'm done scanning, we'll see what's busted out, what's leading, how much, how many, to what extent? And as I said on TV today, we just take it day by day. I was asked whether we're going to have a big rally. I said, I don't really look at big. We'll take it day by day and let's hope it's big.

Up next, more on these markets. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health, with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues

we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat, and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that,

generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix.

Reach for Vital Proteins, Collagen and Protein Shake and Chocolate with 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides. It helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints in a smooth, ready-to-drink shake. So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success. Vital Proteins. Stay vital. Visit VitalProtines.com to get started. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease.

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You're listening to... America is talking. Investors Edge. Got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Bum, bum, banana. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So that's the story. In a nutshell. Easy money. I'm hearing all this talk that it was political move by Powell. You know, I...

And again, nothing personal. I think he's terrible at his job. I don't think this move was political. I think he was playing catch-up to the 10-year yield. Do I think he has a bias? Oh, hell yeah. Trump has ripped him to shreds for a very long time, which means if I'm Jay Powell, I don't like Donald Trump.

My bias would be I would want to keep Kamala Harris. I would want Kamala Harris to beat Trump. So what would I do? So there is a bias, but I don't think this. move is political. I think the move is right. I told you I would have done a half, maybe even three quarters. What is political, and I'm 100% certain, and it's not hard to figure out, one only has to ask, why did our federal government last month, August, and by the way, I'm being a little repetitive here, if you don't mind, why in August did our federal government

collect $307 billion from us, but spend $600,000? 88 billion. Why would they run a 381 billion deficit? August, three months before the election. Oh, that's why. By the way, that run rate on 381 billion deficit would be a $4.5 trillion deficit. That would be more than the 2019 whole federal budget. But it's not going to be that way. on purpose, Biden and company massively put the screws to you and I and up their game of government spending, which gets flushed into the system and the economy. You do know when they report the jobs numbers, there's government jobs which have skyrocketed. when they report GDP, there's government spending in the GDP.

There's your wonderful president of United States. Kicking you in the groin. Well, I got to say the administration, because it's now Harris, Biden, using you and I as a slush fund to do their bidding. 381 billion. By the way, if I was even able to, to ask them, what the hell is that? You know what they would say?

Oh, we're just accounting. There's accounting things that are going on. Yeah, it's just accounting things. You know what else happened last Wednesday? They were blasting the Capital One financials, the Alley financials, the synchrony financials, these auto lenders. What do you think reversed on Wednesday?

A rhyme and a reason. And I got news for you. I hope it continues. I don't mind markets going up. I'm good with that. I'm cool, but that's how I knew. I have a very good feel for these people, because we watch them closely.

We think the long-term damage they have done is beyond the beyond. And I believe I said it this morning to Stuart Varney on Fox Business. I don't know what number it's going to be at. I don't know what's going to trigger it. But they're taunting the hell out of us with what they are doing in D.C. So when I do my scans tonight, what I am finding is W.W. Granger at New Highs.

It was getting shredded in the last week. United Rentals I think almost new highs Have you ever heard of Emcour group Building Maintenance Have you ever heard of How about Eagle Materials

Gypsum And Wallboard Of course you've heard of Caterpillar There are some of the moves Leading stocks economically sensitive, benefactors of easier money from a central bank. Parker Hanofen, hydraulic systems and components and machinery.

These are the names. Remember the commodities that were so weak? Well, they're still relatively weak, but you know what? Since last Wednesday, the XME, which was crashing. That is the metals and mining index. It's gone from 53 and a half to 60 and a half. 14% in seven days. The leak.

The leak. And that's your markets. And as we said, worst areas right now are the best areas because we've gone from defensive industries to, I guess for lack of a better word, offensive. financials also things like Ameriprise break out a range black rock breaks out of range Goldman has not yet but very good recovery tomorrow be another day 10 year yield huh wait a man I thought the Fed lowered rates they lowered their rates

the 10 year yield is backed up some 3.65 to 3.75 not the end of the world how does that happen. Well, as we told you, the Fed doesn't handle long-term rates unless they're printing crap loads of money. When they destroyed the free markets, the economy, 150 million of us going to work every day, work on our tail off, still doing great. Business, great medical and technological advances on a daily basis, companies wanted to do better for themselves, trying to grow in spite of the nut job running California and their mandates are killing industry and they're just abusing the electorate and lucky to have them some of these governors and i mean holy crap the utter stupidity of some of these people so that's your markets for you good day i take it back

very good day very good day and then after the club FedEx, which closed at 300, is 273 in the aftermarket. Numbers not so great. Estimates. Much below estimates. But it's only FedEx. We'll see what that means tomorrow. Remember, the market moves on monetary policy and reality at any given moment in time.

We'll see what FedEx does. I don't think it does much to the market tomorrow. It's certainly not going to help FedEx. I'll give you another one today, Skechers. Skechers stock, down 10%. Why? Not so great things going on. Tough industry right now.

And that affected some of the things in that area. They did a conference call and said, namely China. their quote was some severe consumer discretionary pressures, you think? And there's the markets for you. Again, tomorrow will be another day. In the news, I got to bring up Donald Trump. So I don't watch a lot of the music.

I'll get back to it in a second. This is important. This is Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond, the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic

stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle. where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. Reach for Vital Proteins, Collagen and Protein Shake and Chocolate. With 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides, it helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints in a smooth, ready-to-drink shake. So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success.

Vital Proteins, stay vital. Visit VitalProtines.com to get started. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews,

OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com, depending on certain loan. attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Culper. So, as I said, oh, first let me mention something else. Have you been watching this news about what's named P. Diddy or Diddy or? or Puff Daddy or whatever his real name is what, Sean Combs. And all I was thinking to myself, here's this guy that's worth, I don't know,

500 million, maybe billion. It's got the world by the you know what. Popular is all hell. And may I state for the record, and I hate putting these terms. So I beg my, please, forgive me, celebrity can get anybody who wants

have you read what this guy is being accused of you know if true there are morons and then there are morons it's stunning you gotta be a sick twisted I'll shut up on that line if he if he's just accused

but man they got Lots of evidence. And of course, there's the video of him kicking the crap out of his girlfriend in a hotel hallway. What is the matter with people? You know, I've had this, we have, I have, I have, I have, I have mottos, you know, the mottoes I use. There's one of my main mottos is never piss on prosperity. This guy could have been leading the life of lives.

and all he had to do was treat people right and now he's in jail no bail and all involved a dropping dime on him and he may be going away for a very long time and all he had to do was treat women

as a gentleman and just do the right thing he had everything. It's unbelievable to watch. It's stunning. And it's so stunning. I pretty much have forgot what I even, what else I wanted to talk about.

Yes, Donald Trump. I watched Gutfeld last night. I've only met Grit. I'm a Fox News Business contributor. I've only met him once in person. I was in the green room. He walked in, but I was running to the studio,

so I just said hi. I didn't even introduce myself, so he doesn't know me. Maybe he knows me from TV, I don't know, but I know him. And I think the guy's brilliant. Brilliant. I think he's got this great way about him. And he doesn't, it's not like he does joke, stand-up comedian and a joke. And then another joke.

Just the things he talks about and the way he talks about him. And he's got this show and it's very highly rated. he had Trump on last night. And as you know, I am no fan of Trump. But let me make a blanket statement. If the Donald Trump of last night on Gutfeld can be that Donald Trump on the stump, and as a campaigner, I think he wins the election, he was. And by the way, this is nothing to do with the things he has done, said whatever, right, right,

whatever, I'm just talking about last night. He was charming, friendly, funny. Just, I would want to have dinner with him. That Donald Trump. But then, the other Donald Trump's out there, and you know what I mean. Remember, you're trying to win an election. And how do you win an election? You smile a lot.

and you compliment a lot and you don't piss off anybody. He likes pissing off people. Anyway, if you have a chance to watch it, you should. There's probably video out there. That Donald Trump

wins the election. Best way I can explain it to you. And by the way, I haven't watched late night shows in forever. I was a big Johnny Carson guy. Once Carson went, that was it. I don't think I've ever won't. And by the way, I think Jimmy Fallon's a fantastic talent.

I've never watched Colbert. What's the other one? Fallon, Colbert, and... Oh, Jimmy Kimmel. I used to watch The Man Show with Jimmy Kimmel. That was a pretty interesting show. And I don't watch, you know, any of the other things. I was a big Oprah fan, by the way.

But I'm done with that. I'm more interested in watching Seinfeld Big Bang Theory and the office. Those are my three. And I'm in the midst of, I never watched cheer, so I'm in the midst of going through that, I'm in the seventh season. A lot of old shows I never watched. I did friends finally.

I never watched it. Good show. Anyway, so we're going to head it to Friday. Very good day today. One would suggest the market's a little overboard, but I got to tell you, a lot of things moved above range today. Let's see if they stick in many of the areas. Growth was better.

I'm still suspect of semis. They're still a very good day, but you can tell, just look at the charts, not as strong as other areas. Would like to see them come on. A little hint. If Nvidia can first just get above 121, it would be a start, but it still have more work to do. I'm just happy.

It was a pretty decent day, and I may even look to add to my S&P position. I have a pretty sizable one. I'll write that baby home if I have to. And by the way, we wrote up most of the S&P move since last November. So hopefully we got another launching pad. Tomorrow I should be on noon hour Fox Business Network with Neil Cavuto. Check that out. And until tomorrow, you'll have a great evening drive carefully.

when you get home do like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better i promise peace out all serenity now what gap tomorrow have no idea good night this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's garykka dot com success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at apu.apus.edu.

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