Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - the big guys [12.18.2023]

Episode Date: December 18, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is December 18th, 2003.

as we run towards the end of the year, which as usual, as you get older, it seems to be every year sudden now. Thanks for joining. Hope you had a good weekend. I really didn't. The Giants suck. That's all I can tell you.

I never really have a great weekend if the Giants, and that means for a very long while. Anyway. Thanks for joining. If you do not get this radio show and your city, we'll post at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you do not follow us on Twitter,

you should follow us on Twitter. Go to Twitter, which is X. Put our name in and you get to follow us. And if you'd like to email us, do it at garyk.com. All you got to do is being nice. That's not hard for you, is it? Good.

All right. here is what I am hearing and we're getting right into the crux of what we call Investor's Edge Here is what I am hearing In 2024 We're going to have a deep recession

This is what I am hearing In 20204 we're going to have a deep recession In 2024 This is what I'm hearing 5,500 S&P, we're at 4740. In 2025, I'm hearing. We're going to be at 6,000 S&P. This is what I am hearing.

I am hearing that the Fed, J. Powell, will lower rates a minimum of three times, and the people that are saying we're going into recession say the Fed's going to lower rates eight times whatever just so you know if the Fed lowered rates six times to 4% down from 5.5th if they do a quarter at a time

it would take us right where the 10 year is right now with 3.9 and change I am hearing the consumer screwed that we're going to have a consumer recession in the year 2003. I am hearing

housing is going to crater in fact the New York Post has some guy on there and he's quoted as saying the drop will be the worst we have ever seen in housing prices. I am also hearing

housing market's just fine. We'll have normal corrections here and there. Nothing to worry about. These are the things I am hearing. And of course, then there are the top ten stocks of 2024. These are the ten you have to own. This is our favorite name of 2024. No, we're not repeating those names.

The Big Ten, the top 20. The top AI stocks for the next 10 years. I'm hearing that. No, really. Without mentioning names, back at the highs, the most famous financial guy on this financial television station before Fox Business showed up,

put out the new winners of the new world. And I believe on average drop 99%. And by the way, that is not an exaggeration. The winners of the new world. What is my point? Why am I doing this today? Because if I'm hearing it, you're probably hearing it. You're probably seeing it.

You're probably thinking about it. I'm here to tell you, unless these people have next year's newspaper today, in other words, in their hands, are the December 30th newspaper, 2004. Unless you are Roger Healy from I Dream of Jeannie, where I Dream of Jeannie, Barbara Eden, had like next week's newspaper today

and Roger Healy went to the horse track. Unless you have Barbara Eden given you that newspaper, we are here to tell you no way, no how, no chance, no one knows where the end of the year

is going to be next year. Nobody knows what the market's going to be. Nobody knows what the big winners are going to be. Nobody knows what the big losers are going to be. Nobody knows what the big losers are. going to be. Nobody knows at the end of the year if we're going to go through a bare market, bull market. We certainly don't know whether the Ebola virus is going to beat the bubonic plague in the presidential election. You know who those two are. We're letting you know there are

just too many variables. We're letting you know that seven weeks ago, seven to half now, there were 1,000 new yearly lows in the market. The Russell 2000 was at bare market lows. 80% of the market were in downtrends with some in deep downtrends. Regional banks, big banks, were at their relative lows. Things were getting blasted just seven to eight weeks ago. In seven to eight weeks, yields crashed. And those financials, which a lot of them now are nothing more than big bond funds, because they bought the hell out of long-term bonds because they were forced to by Mr. Bubble Powell to going out very long-dated to make any money because the 10-year yield was a 3-tenths of a percent at the lows.

And they lost their arses on it to the point where Bank America had losses over $100 billion. dollars and that's because the bond market went the wrong way price went down yields went up they bought it too early they're losing their butts so if the bond market gets better they get back a bunch of the money and their stock prices go up a bond fund and guess what happened the financials have been strong anybody predict that hell no but we interpreted it here on November 1st. Who was on this show every day for three months saying, avoid 80% of the market and downtrends?

We didn't have to predict that. We were just following the bouncing ball, understanding how things look when they are bad. And on November 1st, we were just following the bouncing ball again when we came out and said to you, we think there's a chance for the market turned today because we had one of those confirmation days, not knowing,

holy crap, what a move. So we just want to make sure you know they're all going to be out there with their big 10, top 20, the great AI stocks for the next year, this, that, the other thing for the next year. We're just trying to tell you, God bless them all,

none of them have a clue. They're just out there to market something. There's too many variables. There's interest rates. There's inflation. There's oil prices. There's OPEC. There's Israel.

There's Hamas. The good news is they're getting their asses kicked. There's Russia, Ukraine. Who knows if China's going to go into Taiwan? Who knows who's going to win the presidency? The bubonic plague or the Ebola virus. Either one, we're screwed. Who knows?

You know, the climate change people, who knows? They're out there. They're a little quiet right now because it's freezing in a bunch of places. Oh, but don't worry. That's extreme weather, too. climate change. Nobody knows. So what we're just going to keep doing for you, what to avoid, what's working, how it's working, whether they're stretched, extended overbought to the upside, or stretched extended oversold to the downside. And if things change, we'll let you know. Up next,

more of this as we prepare for the new year. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. So what do this animal And this animal

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The last bastion of quality programming With Gary Coltbaum It doesn't get better than this So, hey yo Let's put some pieces The puzzle Together To the left of me

As I speak is a sea of charts boxes and boxes of charts printed out charts yes I probably have a couple of trees down because of how many charts I have

leave no doubt those people would be pissed off at me sorry can't help you anyway in those charts what we do is we separate the past we look at a photo album for familiar faces and what we do is we go back in time

and we study and we study and we study and we study and one of the studies we did a study of we actually went back to 1987 and unfortunately we can't go back all the way because there are a lot of stocks that don't trade anymore and I can't pull up charts but IBM traded back then we could go see what it looked like GM trade back

Anyway, we did a study. We wanted to know, and you got to trust us when we say, and do it without bias. The study was, would we have been able to miss the crash? Because our technical analysis prowess. Just like 21, we missed the brutal bear market. 0-8-09. Missed the brutal bear market. July to end of October, brutal drop.

So we did this study. We went back three months before the crash. And we just had about 100, 150 stocks, the big names that were really rocking and rolling at the time. And we came to the conclusion, oh, we definitely would have been out. Because a bunch of them topped out weeks and weeks in advance. Now, there was some leaders that topped out just five or six days before the crash. They were the last vestiges of strength. and those are going to be the tougher ones.

What I have held, well, all we can tell you is two days before COVID, the market caved in. The big leaders, within two days of COVID really hitting, topped really badly. And we got out that day. So our thought process is, yeah, we would have probably been scared out of our, not knowing there was going to be a crash. That's one study we did. but another study we have done, hey, there's all kinds of predictions that all hell's going to break loose in the economy. We're going to have a deep recession. GDP is going to be down.

Unemployment's going to skyrocket. Profits are going to drop like a stone. Well, we want to know if markets are smart enough to see that. So we did those studies of how markets were in the lead up to drops in the economy. And we can safely tell you, easily tell you, the market will know. We can safely tell you if all heck is going to break loose in the economy. Rails, truckers, economically sensitive stuff, they will top out, and they will top out, and they will start the downtrend

and then go through the process of a big bare phase to whatever extent they decide to go so we don't need to know we're letting you know we do not need to know if we're going to be in recession and what to do about the market the market will definitively based on precedent

historics 100% of the time the markets will tell us. You will not see Marriott at a new yearly high. You will not see Hilton right there. You will not see a united rentals break out of range. Imposeably never happened before. Oh, but Gary, what about those words? What of this time? It's different. We're going to go with 100% of the time results and we'll worry about it. That's all. So we don't need to worry about predictions. Then they're going to be on the front cover of financial magazines. Are there any financial magazines still out there? I read the Wall Street Journal. They don't typically have a

lot of that though. So just letting you know up front. And I don't know which is going to be the big winning stocks next year. You know, when Dry Ships was the biggest winning stock, I don't know, was it 04, nobody knew dry ships. Do you think anybody knew in May that Abercrombie and Fitch was 22 to 86 bucks in seven months? Abercrombie and Fitch? What? So every year we do this type of show, just to get it through your brains, just watch the market. when wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small.

Be smart enough to pick your spot. Well, most people don't do what we do. We know that. But if you buy right, you're going to be able to sell right. And when wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small. And as we've told you, we're not here to rub anybody the wrong way. But you should see some of the accounts we get in from other places. And admittedly, Wall Street is pretty much a fully invested vehicle.

what you do, you'll go there, and they're going to buy you 80 stocks or 40 mutual funds, and they're going to spread your round, and that'll be the end of it. And we're getting accounts in that have stocks down 50% from the highs. But they're so spread out, no one stock is going to bury them. But when you go into a bare market and everything is getting whacked, then it's a horse of a different color. I hate cliches. Why did I say those words,

horse of a different color? You know what? I think I was watching The Wizard of Oz this weekend. The horse of a different color. So just letting you know, we're just going to stay in gear with the markets,

what's leading, what's lagging, and be smart. You know, my biggest mistakes, admittedly, there are things I leave on the table. The big thing, my, big thing I'm working on and correcting, and it's still not easy, is when you got something

that's working, stick with it. Because we were taught years ago, you know how you make 100% on a stock? You got a hold. It's not often. Like I think it was five, six years ago, we put out, what was a Tesla? It went up 100% in five days. That's not the norm. A hundred percent usually takes a year or two. That's what we're working on most right now. Without mentioning, we just had one that was up a little, it was up okay, gave it all back, sold, and watched it go right back up. Didn't hurt us, but up next, what's going on now?

This is the one only investor's edge. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. So what do this animal... And this animal?

And this animal? Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic Valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovi.coop and taste the difference.

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. We're listening to... America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with Dad. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. By the way, speaking of economy, expeditors, symbol EXPD, almost new yearly highs with only a 54% drop in earnings and a 50% drop in sales. But at new yearly highs, kind of tells you things may get better. They better get better. The one thing I'm going to be watching closely as we move into the new year is there's just a ton of stocks that have risen up with the market. I'm on expediters.

Now, think about this. They are global logistics services for the forwarding of air and ocean freight. That's what they say the company does. You can go look it up at expediters.com. Forget earnings. That's how much you make on a sale. This is sales year over year the last four quarters. Get this.

Minus 36, minus 44, minus 51, minus 50. So that basically means on a dollar of sales, it is now 60 cents from the year before. The stock should be in the toilet. Which brings me to my next point. There's a lot of those. My favorite one is Micron. They've lost a ton of money the last four quarters. It's a semiconductor company.

Sales minus 47, minus 53, minus 57, minus 40. Their guidance is for another loss. So here you have a company that their business is cut in half. sales, stocks at a new yearly high, which brings me to my point. I don't know what the hell the market's looking at. Sorry for using the word hell,

but we're making some point here, a little impact. But of these companies, and there's a lot of them that have, not as bad as Micron, but still, earnings down, sales down. If there isn't a recovery in earnings and sales, it is going to leave a lot of companies with valuations, not in the trees, but have you ever seen the Redwoods north of San Fran?

I have. I'm talking those trees, so we're going to be watching that sucker closely. And as I go through earnings, I'm amazed at how many companies, are losing money and stocks are probing the yearly high and then you look at something called the price earnings multiple.

It's a measurement of valuation unlike there is no measurement of valuation for the crypto. When a company's losing money, there's no readout. There's not even a readout. And then there are companies he's trading at 300 times earnings, 200.

They better grow into that. So that's the big thing we're watching on the fundamental side, on the valuation side, but yes, we do know, price first, everything else second. So we wanted to do this for you at the start of the show today, because I just watched a little bit today of our favorite stocks of 2024. We expect this and that and this and that and this and that. And as I say to you and I don't say this flippantly, I don't know what I'm having for dinner tonight.

I don't know what the market's going to do tomorrow. 2004? Now we do hear, as we move a little bit more, that supposedly a presidential election year is a good year. though this coming presidential election again will be the Ebola virus versus the bubonic plague we don't care what past election years have done we're only going to care about 2,024

and we'll let the market dictate policy that's all we'll scan 1500 to 2,000 stocks every night 200 sectors, just about every country, every commodity. The dollar, we're going to watch against the yen and the euro and whatever else need be. And then we'll continue to close our eyes, hold our nose and pray. Which, as we say, we've tried, it does not work. So we can tell you that the Dow, ready for this, was up. point 86 today, not even a point. But Amazon breaks out to new highs, NVIDIA very close. Facebook,

meta, new highs, Google sets up for new highs. Netflix broke above a little range. I think actually new highs today. So the mega caps that I heard in the last two weeks were dead money now. Dead money. They would just rest. thing it looks like. They were on the move today. It was a bigger cap affair for a change today, while other things pulled back today, which would be as normal as normal can be. A stock that moves up 50 points in 10 days and pulls back 10, that's an uptrend. What we gauge now is, you know, those financials that went up nicely, what do they do as they pull back and they pulled some back today, not all. And they pulled back the housing today as they bounced up the yields today a little bit.

Remember what we said to you that these financials are like bond funds now. So if interest rates start spiking again, they are coming down. But it would be normal also, be normal also for interest rates to back up a little bit here as we went straight from five to 3.9. Unprecedented in seven weeks. So if we bounced up to 4243, it's not going to help. the market, but it'd be normal. So we'll be watching that. So with the Dow up zero, 0.86, NASDAQ up 90s. Transport's down 53.

Advanced declines, not a great day today. And unbelievably, still plenty of new yearly lows on the NASDAQ. That is so weird. Nealds backed up a little bit to 3.9-54 on the 10-year from 3.9 to 8.8.000. No biggie. And just remember, they're telling us now there's no inflation. And the Fed is ready to lower rates three times because the Fed says so. Well, they've been wrong 150 out of 150 times.

What if the yields start spiking again? All of a sudden, they're going to change. Do you know how many times they have changed what the Fed's going to do and what they're looking to do in the last year? Oh, 7,362 times. And we just want you to remember the Fed. is like a third string quarterback on a very bad football team. They're not even in the playing field. Being at 5.5% on Fed Funds rates,

and if you don't know what Fed Funds rates are, go look them up. Versus the real world, the real market that he's not a part of, that he's screwed with so long. There's a 3.9 change. He's not even on the playing field. The market's doing the job. Let's hope it continues to do the job.

We'll be quite happy. And let me repeat. If there is to be economic trouble, the market's going to tell us. In turn, we will tell you. You can't hide a good market or a bad market. They don't hide. They show up. You just got to work at it.

You just got to look at it. It's not, you just got to think long time. Don't worry. Tell that to the people that have been thinking long term on, Peloton. Or Citigroup from 08. In 15 years, it's down 90% still. Did you know that? Citigroup. That was one of the financials you had it owned for life. It's down 90% from 08. But don't worry. You just gotta think long term. Yeah, sure. Cool.

Our message? It's good to think long term. Make sure what you're holding is working long term. Because just remember, things are always changing in this world. In technology, what's great today could be obsolete tomorrow. For starters. Up next. Whatever else we can come up with. I'm Gary.

This is the one only investor's edge. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200. flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.

So what do this animal... And this animal... And this animal... ...have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic Valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides,

which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovi.coop and taste the difference. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort, perfected. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready. Go. Investers Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge in the news. We are hearing that Israel and the scumbags, the murderous terrorist scumbags are back at the table working on the hostages. Don't know how that plays out. We are seeing video. They actually built tunnels.

that you can fit trucks in, going from miles and miles and miles and miles and miles. And I'm just asking myself, the one thing that I am perplexed on Israel, who I back with no 1 million percent, didn't their intelligence know? They're shown like 300, 400 miles of. tunnels. I gather there's going to be a deep drop and a big look back on the intelligence and everything. I can't wait to see what happens in the news. Well, parents, I never watched Friends. And when Matthew Perry died, I decided to watch Friends. I'm already on the fifth season. And I got to tell you, awesome show.

I had no idea. I never watched it. What great camaraderie, timing, and I think Matthew Perry was the best out of them all. Great physical comedy. He's dead. And it turns out, even though the protestations that he was not doing any drugs and everything was, you know, he died of something called ketamine, which basically one would say, say he fell asleep in a hot tub and drowned because of taking something that makes you fall asleep. He had enough in his system, they say, for when you go into surgery.

He's dead. And he didn't have to be. Self-inflicted. Every now and then, we just like telling you to all you parents out there, grab your kids. Seriously. Let them know. I'm dead serious because you see what's. going on here. When I used to visit my sons at Florida State University, and I would go to a couple of bars

with them, and watch young girls, 18, 19 years old, I can't use the word. Let's just say, quite the inebriated and not knowing where they were. And I'm thinking, God, if I was their parents. Let your kids know alcohol is not that cool, especially to excess. Let them know drugs are not cool. None of it is cool. What's cool is a sound mind, an in-shaped body, an educated and philanthropic young man and women that think of us. others and think of their future. When I think about Matthew Perry, oh my goodness. And you know, money isn't everything. Do you know he was making 20 a million a year off of friends? Doing nothing. Imagine what you can do with your life with that type of cake and get yourself healthy and well,

and he still couldn't. He still couldn't. It's amazing. And he had his friends, no pun intended, to try and help. He had people and still couldn't. It tells you what kind of a war addiction is. Teach your kids about addiction and drugs and alcohol. It sucks. It leads to nowhere, especially to excess. And every time I see one of these people that have the world by the grapefruits

can do anything they want with, their life. Joy, the fruits that this world has to offer. And they're dead. And they're self-inflicted. What, Heath Ledger? What was the guy who played? Was he the Joker?

Philip Seymour Hoffman, one of the great actors of the last 20. Dead. Michael Jackson, dead. And the list goes on and on. Prince! Dead! And they're not the first and they're not going to be the last. But you as parents, take a step back every now and then.

I do and be in utter amazement that people that have the means and the ways to fix themselves up, get themselves help, and still can't. And just so you know, it all starts with one. It starts with one. that leads to two, three, four, and five. And then who the hell knows what. So just a little segue from your handsome and buffed host about a little bit on the world and your kids

because I think I've seen a lot. I think I've seen it all. I think I've read it all. And that's that. So a little bit of lesson time today. On next year. On careful. On.

don't believe what anybody says about where things are going to be, the market's going to decide. I can promise you that. And on life in general. And there's a hell of a lot going on in life right now that we get to watch. I'm noticing more protests today. People actually praising Hamas. And you think to yourself, where the hell is all this coming from? You get taken aback a little bit.

and you just put one step in front of the other and recognize different strokes for different folks, I guess. So you'll have a great evening, drive carefully. What is it, Monday night? Oh, Monday night, raw tonight. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise. Have a great one all. Always appreciate you listening. Peace out. Bye bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness

among nature's wildest plants, animals, and cows? You're actually on an organic valley dairy farm, where nutritious, delicious organic food gets at start. But there's so much nature. Exactly. Organic Valley small family farm. protect the land and the plants and animals that call it home. Extraordinary.

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