Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The big stuff [05.01.2025]
Episode Date: May 1, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/THE TOP 5 By Gary Kaltbaum May 1, 2025Crappy finish to a strong day.META and MSFT big names a big help but some distribution. META can’t get above the 50 day.Whatever they s...aid helped AI names come out of the doldrums. Some had dropped over 50% peak to trough.Did we say market has gone coast to coast stretched one way to the other and oversold to massively overbought?AAPL and AMZN no help after the close.
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It would be May 1.
It's Thursday, 2025, emanating from New York City,
So if you hear sirens, that means I got news for you.
I have an apartment in New York City.
At any time of the night, the sirens blare, and you're up.
Part of the process, ladies and gentlemen.
Hope you're having a good day.
I want to thank Delta for getting me up to New York safely last night.
They have become such a great airline in the last so-and-so amount of years.
That's all I can tell you.
Really, really good.
Okay.
Lots to cover.
I was thinking today,
you know, we've rallied up,
and I was just thinking today,
what would you want answered today?
What are the things that are sticking out
that you would want answered?
And I realize I know what those things are
and how I know your emails.
And what's interesting is it's usually the same big names in the markets.
And of course, we had a couple of doozies overnight in Microsoft and Facebook or meta.
I still don't know why these companies change their names.
After the close is Amazon and Apple, we got Tesla.
Their numbers were terrible.
We got Google, and their numbers were pretty decent, but the stock has done nothing since.
What else?
Which a broadcom there a little bit later on, Nvidia reported way back.
So we'll get into that.
But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on X, you should.
And if you'd like to email us, just be nice.
I was on the big money show today on Fox Business.
It's one-hour show, five of us discussing different things.
And one of the things that was brought up, as always, is the president and the tariffs.
And this and that, and I said my usual, I am against tariffs.
I'm not a tariff guy.
And it's interesting how the markets agree.
Whenever they put on big tariffs, the market got slaughtered.
Once they pulled them off or said something to the effect of pause, which were on now,
markets had rallied.
And, you know, we've tried to communicate with the administration on them.
But we know we would fall on deaf ears because, hey, listen, the president,
is hard-nosed. And by the way, that's not a put-down. He believes in what he believes. He has
his own convictions, more power to that. But we are in hopes they get away from that. And he recognizes
that the market's going down are not a good thing. So we got some emails on that today. I got
one email from a person saying, well, you're harsh on radio, but you weren't very harsh on
TV. I'm not so sure what that means, except to say, we said we were against the tariffs and we're not
tariff people. What else do you want us to say? Anyway, to each his own. You know where we stand
with no agenda, ulterior motive, or bias. So let's start off at the market today,
and I'm going to give you the weird.
There have been days recently
where the market ramped into the close.
I will tell you today,
the market dropped over 200 points
in the last six or seven minutes.
200 Dow points in the last six or seven minutes.
I don't know if it's a big deal or not,
but when you're up 300 at 350 and you finish up 83,
a little sell down at the close.
The NASDAQ had a strong 264 point move to the upside today.
NASDAQ 100, 215.
But I will say the, and again, not a big deal.
The NASDAQ was up about almost 500 today.
So a little distribution there,
but I wouldn't call it a big deal.
And I wouldn't call it a big deal
because you've had a pretty good move up
since that higher low.
And you know what we mean by a higher low, right?
We had the crash low.
We rallied up.
We pulled back and never went back to the crash low.
And that was last Tuesday.
And we've rallied up.
Yesterday we had a horrible open, reversed.
So I wouldn't call it a big deal.
What I would say is
I wouldn't be surprised
if we threw a little pullback here.
And frankly, when mine pullbacks here,
it sets things up better to go higher.
And we'll await Amazon and Apple.
We got Amazon.
It's down $8 in the aftermarket,
but only down $2.50 on the day
because it was up nicely.
And we were waiting Apple,
and that'll come out in a little bit.
But what I do want to talk about is Microsoft
and Facebook or meta.
let's start with meta
good numbers
but a little deceleration
in sales
I did not like the action in the stock
today
not bearish
bearish but I'm definitely not
bullish on the stock
just let you know
why do we say that
well because they opened it up today
at 593
and closed at 572
simple as that
they distributed the stock
distribution means selling by institutions.
On top of that, I'm not going to use the word failed,
but it got sold off in and around that 50-day moving average.
So for me, right now, right now, meta is an absolute non-starter for me.
Would not be a buyer of it?
Let me take that back.
I'm not going to be a buyer of it.
as always we let you decide
Microsoft
good old
dependable Microsoft
which pretty much
have been growing in the teens
for quite a while
and you had a little acceleration
they did 10 10 10
10 and we just did an 18
sales 15
16 12 13
so dependable
the stock like
everything else was smoked
448 down to
350 and
recent passed on that
higher low went from
360
closed yesterday
let's call it
396
finished up $30
today
very good move
though at what point today
was only up 41
so not that bad
it's a win.
But we do want to let you know.
Microsoft has now gapped
into what we call
massive overhead
resistance. And if you go
look, forget what we
have to say, just go look.
And you will see between
430 and 468
the high, lots
of resistance there.
So
opinion.
probably going to do a little dipsy doodle in here, backing and filling, filling and backing.
And I have to tell you, I've made money in the stock in the past.
I love the company.
And what we're going to hopefully look for is what we call a secondary buy point.
And what that simply means, it gaps up and sits around and hangs out and then turns up and moves above the gap point.
That's what we're going to be looking for.
Does it mean it's going to happen?
No.
It's things we just look for.
And of course, if Microsoft keeps going up, it is a, I think, number two on the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 in influence and in size.
So we're going to be watching that closely.
but something else happened with Microsoft you needed to know.
And meta, things they said.
They talked about cap X, capital expenditures,
how much they're going to be spending on things going forward.
And they put out some pretty darn good numbers going forward.
Does that mean they're going to spend it?
No, but they still stated it.
We'll buy into it.
And what happened?
Do you remember we've been telling you that all the artificial intelligence stocks have been the bare market?
Well, those artificial intelligence stocks had been bouncing up with the rest of the market.
Up next, what did they do today?
And much more.
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the end of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum it doesn't get better than this
and welcome once again to Investors Edge so we've had a pretty big bare market in
artificial intelligence stocks and as you know all the analysts are out saying don't worry everything's
okay everything's fine keep buying and of course some of them dropped 50 percent
some artificial intelligence stocks dropped over 50 percent
since January. Yet they kept telling you, just by, don't worry. Everything's fine.
While we're telling you, why don't you wait till they show some bottoming? And what that
simply means is they stop going down and they start turning up and they start putting some
stair steps to the upside and we start identifying that on the up days volumes heavy on the
down days volumes lighter indicating institutions or maybe getting involved again but no they kept
saying just by and a bunch from dropped 50 some odd percent i'll just give you one instant
vr t vertive the stock went from 155
You ready for this one?
The 67.
Well, it's been rallying up because the market's been rallying up.
It's back to 93.
Still down from 155 and they're still telling you to buy it.
It's a data center company.
We're just letting you know that a lot of these names broke back above that big declining
50-day moving average.
in the last day or so and especially today.
Does that mean they don't just turn right back down?
No, does that mean they keep going?
Don't know.
We just let you know that technically,
in order for things to get better,
things have to get better.
Duh, and part of that has to be
getting back above the 50-day moving average
and sticking.
simple as that
and
sticking
so the first step
may have occurred
there is no rule
that it doesn't just turn right back
down tomorrow
but from the mouth
and mouths
of meta and Microsoft
was the talk
of
CAPX
and talking up
of artificial intelligence.
So just let you know better.
We'll stay on top of it.
Just let you know
turning up.
Other areas doing the same?
The energy stocks.
You know those energy companies.
Symbols, C-E-G, one of them.
up 70 today, just turning up, still way down from the highs,
a GEV, which is stronger than the rest,
NRG reports, I believe, after the close today, and VST.
Now, we are not telling you to buy them, sell them, short them, or cover them.
We'll let you know what they are doing.
simple as that.
Update on the aftermarket, Amazon hit 180, down about, dang, it was down about 10.
Now it's only down about three and a half in the after market.
So the NASDAQ 100, which started to head lower, down a little bit in the after market, but no big deal.
Still waiting on Apple.
I am seeing some other movers in the aftermarket that are in import
Duolingo simple DUOL up 26 bucks to 426
Twilio closed at 98 106 in the aftermarket Reddit
that thing got bombed up 20 bucks in the aftermath
$19 in the aftermarket to 138 on their numbers
but then XYZ they changed their name twice
They're called block.
Used to be square.
Closed at 58, I got it at 49.
How about Symbol Team, a software company.
Closed at 229 out.
194.
That ain't no hill for a climber.
Airbnb reports?
Down $4 to $120, but that stock's been trashed.
A lot of trashing as of recent.
And what do we do now?
letting you know how we work in case you did not know. Two hours earlier, two hours later,
we're going through earnings reports from the night before, seeing where they're opening in the
morning, seeing the new earnings reports in the morning, going through them, and basically again,
where are things opening in relation to where the stocks are. What were the earnings, what were the
sales, whether they good, not so good?
Is there sympathy moves?
As we said, there was sympathy moves in the AI stocks because of what Microsoft and Meta said.
And then after the close, same thing.
So we're already writing down names right now because we're in the midst of earning season.
It's a pain in the butt, but I must tell you.
It's where you find greatness from and where you find crap.
from. It's as simplistic as that from the earning season. And we used to listen to conference calls,
not as often why. You ever hear a CEO say anything bad about their company in a conference call?
It's always light at the end of the tunnel, even if things are bad. It's always everything good.
Yeah, we had to lower our numbers, but. And we used to have CEOs on the show.
show. But the same thing. We would have loved one to come on and say, well, you know, things
suck. That doesn't happen. So that's the goal around earning season. That's why we said,
so Microsoft, we're looking for a real good setup going forward. And maybe it will, maybe it won't.
don't know, but we love big liquid names.
We made a lot of money in the past on big liquid names.
So stay tuned.
We'll let you know.
Pay attention.
It's been quite the last four or five weeks.
And I think in case I haven't said it to you, April pretty much goes down as the
craziest month I have ever been in. Seriously. Up next. Why was it the craziest month?
And much more. This is the one only investors, Ed.
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changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code
Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium
benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
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used relatives, and saying things like,
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He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
By the way, hey, welcome once again to Investors Edge.
You know, when I can see things in real time, it is amazing to me the influence that just a few names have on the market.
I just watched Amazon go from 190 to 180 in the aftermarket and watch the NASDAQ 100, the QQQ, dump.
but then Amazon bounces a little bit.
It's 185 right now.
Guess what the NASDAQ 100 does?
It's amazing.
And I must tell you,
part of this recent,
it wasn't a bloodbath,
but drop in the market
was headed by eight or nine stocks.
You have to remember these eight or nine stocks.
eight or nine stocks, 30 some odd percent of the S&P, which is much worse than 50 some odd
percent of the NASDAQ 100.
Just remember, those are 100 stocks.
So you can have eight or nine stocks that are 55 percent of NASDAQ 100, 91 or 92
stocks, 45 percent.
But then you get the S&P 500.
Eight stocks, 30 some odd percent, 4992 stocks.
catching my drift. I gather the world better, had better, never see all of them going to
bare markets. And the good news is Netflix bullish, Microsoft with a big gap, meta, though
not that great, but had a big gap today. And video, well, still weak. Let's just say none of them are
getting trashed right now. We'll keep watch. You have to remember what tore the house down
in the year 2000 was that concentration and they all got clunked and kept getting clonked.
So we'll certainly be paying attention to them. And just so you know, as I've been saying,
it's not about their numbers. It's about the concentration. Incentration. Incentration.
Institutions have so much of these stocks.
Tons.
Absolute tons.
That when things go awry,
oh, they're selling.
Oh, they're selling.
So we're going to stay on top of that
because, man, oh, ma'am,
we have studied 99,
2000, 2001, 2002.
We're not saying we're in any way shape
perform in that. But we have studied history. It's in the study of history and bull and bear
markets that keeps us, at least we believe, in better stead than most. And recently, all these
stocks were in the findable downtrend. And by the way, still are, except for Microsoft and Netflix.
So stay tuned.
Hear the sirens.
New York City.
We will stay on top of it.
Just be smart.
Stay careful.
Markets aren't easy.
Gold, we had stated we thought a top was near.
We even told you that Barron's front cover was gold rush.
It's still breaking.
The GLD, which represents gold,
was down $6 in change today.
It has now gone from 317 to 297,
which, by the way, is no big deal.
We still think gold is in an overall bull market
with a near turn downtrend.
That's all as of now.
We'll keep you up to date on that.
Save for the gold miners.
I want to get back to the artificial intelligence thing.
When it was going down,
our emails would be very skeptical of us.
And we try to explain.
We're just telling you what the stocks are doing.
We do not know what the outcome is going to be on artificial intelligence.
No idea.
And I got news for you.
The people that are spending all those bucks, I'm pretty sure they're not sure.
I'm pretty sure they're not sure what their return on investment's going to be.
but the emails
were getting were obviously from people
that were in those stocks
and all we were saying was
the stocks are in a bearish trend
well I'm now letting you all know
they may have
not 100%
turn the corner
now some of the things Microsoft
and meta said
on the earnings call
they had already said before
but this time
since the market's better
they caught.
And we'll see where they go.
And this goes for the energy stocks, data centers,
even some of the construction stocks.
You know, the ones that say they're going to build the data centers,
symbol fix, for example, or EME,
and then there's some software names too.
I'm still quite dubious of all the numbers being thrown about.
but that's a guess on my part.
I've never trusted big numbers.
I feel like a lot of these companies are trying to curry favor with the new administration.
When I add up some of the numbers, they just don't seem to make any sense whatsoever.
But it's a guess.
And we'll just keep paying attention.
We'll see how it plays out.
we're all for it
I must tell you we've done a decent dive on AI
I haven't even used it
I'm told I have to use chat GPT
I will
just haven't as a yet
I'm being told that
Google slash alphabet is in trouble because of it
we'll see
don't know
your guess is good as mine
on the other end
of import
we'll stay away from the bad reactions
Qualcomm today
down $12
guess what
we stay away
anything that gaps down
lowers guidance
to that effect
see ya
why
because we want to invest
in greatness
not bad
I got a bunch of
things on Eli Lilly today
in case you don't know was down
105 bucks today
Eli Lilly
down $105
today
how can that be
aren't they selling
a ton of the obesity stuff
all I can tell you they issued
below
Estimate guidance.
And you're usually going to get sold down.
Eli Lilly, to me, at this juncture, just like United Health, I just stay away.
Why?
Eli Lilly went from 935 to 67 to 900 and today down 104 bucks to under 800 in seven weeks.
No thank you.
United Health
went from
let's see
630 to 438 to 600
down to 400
by the way New Yearly Low
I typically stay away from wildness
and when companies get a reputation
of that see ya
up next
Apple
this is the one only investor's edge
guys it's no use putting it off
the best time for an underwear refresh
is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative
horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands
of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for
25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John,
Comfort, perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One,
Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One VentureX card. What's in your wallet?
Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
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The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen.
in apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show
with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today
at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well
publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go. Action! In the guest's edge.
with Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
By the way, a big thank you to Mr. Adam Sardhan for helping out whenever I need.
He's one of those great men that is always there when you need him in a pinch.
And we always thank him for that.
Great family too.
Okay.
Apple, down $4 in the aftermarket, about $4.5.
40 and of course all this can change you do know what happens they do conference calls and
everything's great everything's good all I can tell you Apple came in with earnings and I will
tell you single digits earnings year over year single digits year over year in
sales also and the stock's been weak and if nothing changes as I speak we'll open up
a little bit to the downside tomorrow.
So we had two buffo reactions in Microsoft and meta,
the two M's, the two A's as of this second, both down.
I got Amazon down about six in the aftermarket and Apple,
down three and change.
What we do.
But believe it or not,
every dollar with these stocks matter big time.
The good news is,
Then up, there's no big blowups.
What we didn't want to see is like a 7% drop and things like that.
Apple's been in a pretty good downtrend, rallied off the crash lows, still below the 50-day moving average.
Amazon, same thing.
Same thing on Amazon.
Back in D.C.
A few things of note.
Mike Waltz went from NSA and now he's going to be an ambassador.
Mike Waltz was the
District 6, just north of where I live
in Florida. He was
in the house and the president
moved him. He was the
gentleman that, I guess that whole
signal thing in the app,
I don't know why
they move him from one place to the next
beats the heck out of me.
That moved happened today.
Doubt it moves any
needles. I think
he's a good guy.
I think he works hard and looks like they said mistakes were made
and hopefully they don't make those mistakes going forward.
And I do believe he came out and said it's on me.
To me, that's a man's man.
Just like I'm not going to say who,
but somebody went on TV the other day and talked about his losses.
and I emailed him
and I said, you know, you're a man's man.
Thank you. I really appreciate it.
Because most people that go on tube never talk about their losses,
especially the perma bulls that have been crushed this year
before the rally off the crash lows.
Things that I'm hearing.
This talk, we're in this place.
pause now, you know, the pause that saved the markets, you know, the pause that stopped the
crash from continuing down, that pause, just kind of sort of hearing.
Kind of sort of that that's not coming back. It's going to stay paused. And for obvious reasons.
I gather the president doesn't want his poll numbers to worsen. I'm sure you've seen his
poll numbers. We're not hiding that. You shouldn't hide it either. They're bad. They're darn
bad. I believe it's the worst at this time in a very long while, if not the worst.
And it's all because of not just the tariffs, but the movement, the continuing change.
even today
what's the guy's name
Hassett came out
oh we're going to have an announcement later
today on tariffs
stop
they obviously
aren't listening to me
just stop
enough
please
so I'm pretty sure
that's going to go by the wayside
that's good news
we're also seeing more exemptions
especially on the auto
front
Oh boy that needs to get done.
We're also hearing that the U.S. has reached out to China.
You know, we were playing like the big dog and we're with the big strength.
And we're going to wait for China.
No, we're hearing now that we reached out to them.
And I must tell you, fine.
We don't have to look bigger or stronger than them or vice versa.
Let's just get it done.
And I can promise you if something gets done and whatever trade deals that get done, terrific, whatever they may be.
Terrific. If we can just get past that and then make the tax cuts permanent, get rid of some of these onerous regulations, keep working on the size and scope and the reach of government to do better for the private sector.
I think the potential is unlimited.
And we tell you why.
The people this country are hardworking, all want to do better for themselves and their family.
The medical advancements and the technological breakthroughs have been magnificent.
Very tough to stop that.
And I still remember the words of John Templeton, and I'm paraphrasing to the effect of,
if you believe in the progress of the United States as well as,
human civilization you got to bet on markets longer term and he said that by the way like 30
years ago and boy was he right darn good right so we are in hopes our little mantra of keep taxes low
less regulations get close to balance budgets and just get the heck out of the way they listen
would be nice hey that all said we'll see what tomorrow brings
Apple and Amazon down.
Tomorrow's another day.
You have a great evening.
Drive carefully.
And when you get home to like we do,
quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You'll feel better.
I promise stay well, be well.
Serenity now.
Have a good night, everybody.
Bye, bye.
This has been Investor's Edge
with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,
go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.
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