Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE BIGS AGAIN [07.02.2024]
Episode Date: July 2, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk
Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom,
your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are
listening. It is Tuesday, July 2nd, 2004, tomorrow half day. Thursday we're off. Happy July 4th and
all that fun stuff. Hope you have a.
a good day. And let me just say, this show is serious talk about everything that affects you.
We do markets, the economy, jobs, your industry, unemployment, taxes, Washington, D.C., anything,
anything that comes to mind that sleazy, slimy, scummy hands go into your wallets,
we will talk about. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at Gary
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on Twitter, you should.
And if you email me, just be nice.
The guy who says I suck emailed me a couple of times in the last couple of days.
But that's really it.
Nobody else tells me I suck anymore.
This person tells me I suck because I'm a rhino.
Didn't you know?
I'm a Republican in name only.
Well, first off, I'm an independent.
I left this party a long time ago.
They're not Republicans.
But that's besides the point.
Ladies and gentlemen, we're going to flip it today.
Last couple of days I've been doing,
what is Biden doing to destroy the country to start the show?
We're going to do markets today to start the show
because the sore thumbs are just not changing.
The narrowness is just not changing.
what's good is getting gooder and the question is is what's bad going to get better to make things better
and long last or is it just going to be more of the same as we have told you we don't mind narrow markets
as long as we're in the narrow so let's start off number one today again
advanced declines on the New York
were 2120
flat-ish
NASDAQ up 149, NASDAQ 100-199.
What?
How can that be?
Well, when the top seven stocks
of the NASDAQ 100 make up 44%.
Actually, I think it's 46% of the NASDAQ 100.
That'll do the trick.
And now Tesla, which had been lagging as about as badly as can be, that's coming on.
So, more the same.
And what do we mean by more the same?
Apple, up three and a half today.
And amazingly, Apple's up 10% since that big gigantic,
11-month breakout two and a half weeks ago.
Microsoft, up two and a half today.
Microsoft's a new all-time high.
Amazon, up 280 today, new all-time high.
They're a big 200 number.
Tesla announced deliveries.
I didn't think they were that good.
They were okay, but they beat estimates.
Tesla was up $21 today coming up the right side very quickly.
By the way, sizable volume today.
The semiconductor index, the socks, up 67, holding what we consider to be the first very important support level.
In the semis, Broadcom 16, ASML 14, KLA 10 Corps 11, Lamb Research 12,
monolithic power 9
and then the three, fours, fives,
and sixes on a few of them.
Not everything great, but that's the story.
Has not changed.
As we have stated to you,
there will come a time,
listen carefully,
because, oh, by the way,
Google, up two bucks today.
Facebook up five.
There is going to come a time.
I'm going to make a very strong statement here.
that I hope you're listening where you're not going to want to own these.
It is getting more narrow by the day.
And remember what we explain to you how this works.
It's human nature at every level.
Human nature, fear, and greed are at levels where Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob are buying 100 shares
and the big institutions, the mutual funds, the hedge funds and the like.
and what they do is they have these meetings in the morning.
And they say, hey, Amazon's an all-time high, Microsoft all-time high, Apple, all-time high, how much we got?
And they don't care right then and there about valuations.
I mean, the great liquid companies, how much we got?
Because, and guess what they do?
They add.
And they add and they add.
That is the greed part.
As you know, the other part of the greed part is the other end where people are buying GameStop at any price because some Yuts posts a picture on Twitter.
Fear and Greed.
So we're just letting you know it didn't change today.
And in fact, all day, drip, drip, drip, drip, drip, drip, drip, drip.
into those names.
Drip, drip, drip, drip, drip.
Into those names.
And I was reading today where Apple is its most ever,
nine times sales or something like that,
never been there.
I was reading something today where Apple right now
was trading at, let's see, 273, 74, 7,
let's call it 5, 650, is trading at 30-some-odd times earnings
with 1% earnings growth, 4% drop in sales.
How can that be?
It be.
So we're just letting you know,
not only has not not changed,
they accentuated it a little bit more today.
Mega Cap Tech,
semiconductors.
And the semiconductors are pretty darn good off the highs as of recent.
That's number one.
Number two, Big Banks.
in case you don't know they just had a stress test
everybody passed
we know that's a bunch of bull crap
because these stress tests are given by the people that told us
inflation was transitory
but nevertheless
we're just going to report to you at the close today
Bank America into a new yearly high today
JP Morgan into a new yearly high today
we're just reporting it to you
we'll let you decide
Bank of New York, almost, New Yearly High.
Goldman Sachs, not there yet, but that's been stronger than most.
Morgan Stanley, not there yet, but looks just fine.
Big financials, big banks.
The regional banks, they're even coming on a little bit, though on a relative basis,
terrible and in case you don't know the high in the regional banks was 79 bucks January of 22
it's 49 today and of course you know the reasons behind that leadership that's it's your
leadership there's some other things there's some other strength we're not trying to
shrug them off. But there's not a lot. And we're into group think here. We believe the markets
are about schools of fish. And you want to find what school. And we're just letting you know
mega cap tech, semiconductors. By the way, not all, but go take a look.
Big banks.
Keep in mind, big banks will not move like a moving high-tech name.
And just a few other things here and there that are on the strong side.
That's your market.
Narrow is all hell.
On a daily basis, what was yesterday?
Two to one negative on the NASDAQ, it was still up.
The small caps, the Russell 2000.
still ain't budgeting.
Therein lies your story, and if anything changes, we'll let you know.
Oh, software.
That's up next on Mr. One and Only.
Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.
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The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,
and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
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It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
software stocks
about
I'm going to say
a week ago
a little bit more than a week
we started saying
some are starting to come on
they still are
there's really no great
leadership there but they're coming on
and what that means
it gives an opportunity
to be a part
of the strength
there's a couple of names
like a crowd strike
that are strong
others are what we call coming on doing better showing up on our screens coming up what we call
the right side what the hell is the right side gary well imagine if a stock was 80 bucks six months
ago and dropped down to 60 and then flattened out between 60 and 65 and now going up to
68 back to 65 going up to 70 back to 68 that's going up the right side working its way back
so some software also better not all and may I state for the record there's a lot of software
stocks in really bad shape a lot of software stocks in very bad shape and then there's the rest of the
market and we've been highlighting it for you housing stocks worsened today
Restaurant stocks worsened today.
A lot of retail stocks worsened today.
Marijuana stocks worsened today.
And I got to tell you, in the last week,
the broke marijuana tout artists that have been telling you to buy for four years,
I don't know why, but they were out in droves again last week.
And they had their moment in the sun a couple of times in the last, I don't know, three months,
because Germany announced legalization somebody else did.
And boy, they ran them up for a day.
And then they just clonked them and the you know what.
So the marijuana stocks ain't working.
And we pointed out why they're not working.
Nobody wanted to believe us.
we said who's going to want to pay taxes
and if everybody's selling
it's going to hurt pricing
and why would you go and get it
when your cousin Biff is next door
with the better stuff
so the marijuana stocks
by the way if you want to know
what we mean by
risk management
you ever hear a TILRA
it's a marijuana stock
hit a higher 300
in 2018. It's $1.65 today. That's what we mean by tout and that's what we mean when we say to you,
you guys do your homework please. That was Tilray. Do you remember the one, what was the symbols?
Canopy growth hit $600. It's six. And what was that other one? Oh, C-R-O-N, Kronos.
hit 24 bucks
it's now two
and then there was
the better one
the one that they people going nuts on
Aurora
Cannabis
just so you know the stock went from
40 to 1400
it's four
so when we tell you
dudes risk management
we mean it
when we bring up
Game stop risk management.
I can't begin to tell you how many emails I got after the debate that the Trump stock was going to skyrocket.
It's gone from 40 to 31.
Again, I have to always preface this.
That is not a political statement.
You know the valuation problem there.
So risk management.
I wasn't even going to bring that up, but I was just noticing to my left of marijuana stock.
And boy, oh boy, we'll see if the tout artists are at it again tonight.
So narrow is all heck, and we seriously mean that.
It's kind of getting narrower by the day.
And we'll just let you know.
There is going to be a point in time where these mega caps drop 50% from the highs.
not because anything is wrong,
but it's because everybody was all in,
neck deep, over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged, over-priced.
And I can tell you factually, we're not there yet,
because they were still at it again today.
And maybe it's not for another year, maybe it's six months.
But go back to the year 2000 and go look at the best,
stocks that were bought up narrow and narrow and narrower and narrower they all were smoked
and I can promise you nobody's gonna know what hit them and when they're down
20% you will hear from everybody don't worry it's normal correction when they're
down 40% oh crap now I don't think it's gonna be a 90%er like off
of the year 2000 because I gotta tell you something.
These companies really got game, really got game.
But once they get to their extremes, which have not been hit yet,
it's gonna be a 50% or we'll be ready.
It's probably gonna be off of a climactic move
that will look like the space needle on a chart
because that's how they usually do end.
By the way, we own them.
And we watch every day.
And today again.
And are we surprised?
Yes, the institutions are still in there.
But now it is all heck.
Now, in the New York today, better, a little better broad market.
And I got to tell you, not much goes wrong if big banks are going into new high ground.
So just add that.
And that's the story of the market.
I believe Friday
We'll have another jobs report
I got news for you
I don't think it's a big deal
Just watch the market
We'll stay on top of it
It's the big caps
Small caps are still comatose
And every day we're looking for new names
And they're really not showing up just yet
Every day we're looking for the broader market
Not showing up yet.
Up next.
This, that and the other thing and whatever else.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
It's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
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The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
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This episode is brought to you by Sprecker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
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and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
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The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
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Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
We're listening to America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Okay.
I'm about to give a big compliment to an entity you're going to be very surprised by.
I went to the Department of Motor Vehicles today.
I thought they were fantastic here in Lake Mary, Florida.
The place was bright, shiny, people were smiling, and they had a great system.
Do you know when you go to the deli counter at a supermarket and you have to take a number?
well it isn't like that really you go to a person who gives you a number the greeter like at
Walmart and you have TVs that show and then they announce you to go up and they had like
15 different little places where people were like toll takers and it went smooth as all heck
it was fantastic I don't
think I really ever mentioned the Department of Motor Vehicles. I know others whining
complain about them. I'm just letting you know here in Lake Mary, Florida. Good job. I was really
impressed. Good to compliment a little bit of government, right? Next, the things I see. We do a little
bit of our own little, what we call channel checks. No, we don't have 300 analysts go out to all these
places, but we do think we have a pretty decent feel.
We've made some quite good calls here throughout the years just on small samplings.
You remember years ago, years ago, I got on radio and said, Kmart South, Target and Walmart
North.
And I described for you what was going on at Kmart that you walked in.
was dingy, dirty. Shels are empty. Nobody was there to help you. You walk into Target,
you got the bright red and stuff, and it's really bright and there really nice, and the shelves
are all clean and everything. And then Walmart, you got the greeter and whatever. Well, the Kmart's
gone. And Target and Walmart are thriving, though Target's had their issues. Costco. Have you ever
walked into a Costco or a Sam's Club and wonder how to hell do they do inventory control with all
that. Just remember, you walk into a store, you buy your stuff, you walk out. Great. Do you ever
think about what they have to go through to fill that store and get the right amount of things,
especially in the supermarket sections? Think about that.
and they have to have a somewhat of a divisor on how much food is not going to be sold and they got to throw out or hopefully give away to homeless or people that need food.
I don't know exactly how that works.
I think it's amazing.
And Costco stock is kicked.
You know what.
And of course, Sam's Club is a part of Walmart.
A lot of people don't think about that.
We look at all this stuff.
And we'll visit the Home Depot, see how business is, what's,
selling what's not selling, get a good feel. And that's why I'm on Zillow every day right now
and Realtor.com. We're looking at homes across the country. And you know what we're seeing
markdowns. And you know what we're seeing big inventory showing up. And you know what we're seeing
a lot of pending that never get done. Now I don't know how long that lasts or how far it goes.
and may I state for the record, especially on the high end,
they're putting up things in fantasy land.
And what do I mean by fantasy land?
And we're not trying to act elitist.
We're trying to give you an idea of the lay of the land.
We've seen people put up homes for $7 million.
That was three and a half three years ago.
That crap ain't getting sold.
So we'll keep your breast of the situation on that
because that's going to be mui importante.
And do you know why?
Because we think homeowners have felt the goodness of the wealth effect.
And if it goes the other way, they're going to feel the badness of the wealth effect.
And that could affect the consumer going forward.
So we watch that.
Oh, and yes, we watch the two and the $300,000 also, but we're just getting a feel from top down.
So there's a lot that we're really on top of every single day and not just in our area.
It's everywhere.
Big cities, we're looking at small cities.
I was looking at Raleigh, North Carolina yesterday.
Holy crap.
The prices for houses in Raleigh, North Carolina are insane.
I thought it was Beverly Hills.
But guess what's happening now?
Lots of inventory.
And people see lots of inventory.
Realtors tell the sellers lots of inventory, and realtors tell the sellers, well, you ain't selling at that price anymore because there's 10 others on the block.
You're going to have to lower your price.
And the first person that lowers the price, well, the second person follows, and third, fourth, and then you get the other side.
So just letting you know, we're on top of that.
And then the Starbucks is down 30% here.
We went to another Starbucks down 25%.
And they all say the same thing.
Price.
And it's going on in different areas.
And of course you know about the fast food companies are lowering prices and doing all kinds of deals.
I got news for you.
They're not generous people.
They're not doing it because they're sweet.
They're doing it because they know they have to.
People are price conscious now.
And when all of a sudden it was out there.
how much it costs for fast food versus three or four or five years ago.
There was a holy crap moment, and they had to respond.
So we're watching all this, and there's a reason why McDonald's stock is croaking.
And by the way, I think there's a reason why the stronger restaurant stocks are now croaking also.
Bunch just topped out in the last week.
Chipotle just broke the 50-day moving average.
That's been a sweetheart.
And there's a big thing going on with Chipotle now about how much food they're serving in different places across the country.
Some people went out there on Instagram or what TikTok and weighed the food and some were this and some was that and there's a big thing going on there.
I have to get double chicken instead of single because of how little they're given some of the Chipotle restaurants.
Little bit of that going on.
so we'll keep you on top of it as we move forward but most importantly we watch the stocks
and it remains narrow as all heck semiconductors big tech big banks software coming on but not really
big leadership yet and a bunch of areas just you know how do we say it futsin around oh and now
Tesla coming on though they're going to have to prove with their numbers by the way there's a new
thing going on at Tesla and that's these robotics and energy thing, go read about it.
Hasn't really paid to bet against Elon Musk.
By the way, he'd put out a tweet today that said, you want to short sale our stock
you're going to get buried.
Whether that happens or not, beats the heck out of me.
But it's a guy I wouldn't bet against too often.
I state that for the record.
Elon Musk, man, once in a generation.
Seriously.
And I know he's got the little quirks and stuff, but we're talking once in a generation person.
Gotta hand it to him.
Got to learn from it.
And that's a little bit of this, that, and the other thing of what's going on in the markets.
And as we always say, if anything changes, we'll let you know.
That's what we're best at.
Because we keep a big eye on the movement and what's going on.
Up next.
News of the day, whatever else today.
Gary, this is the one only investor's edge.
It's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show,
Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,
meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One.
Change, ready, go.
Investors' Edge with Gary Culper.
And walk once again to Investor's Edge.
Hey, in the news.
I did a little bit of a deeper dive into this immunity thing that came out of the Supreme Court.
I don't know what people are complaining about.
This immunity thing is for anybody who is president, Republican or Democrat.
And last I looked, Biden's the president.
Of course, everybody's got to make everything into a case, so it's an election year.
Maybe it's me.
A. in the news.
L.A. County.
Now, let's talk about Los Angeles.
Part of California running massive debt and massive deficits.
Huh.
Let's see how this works out.
They aim to eliminate medical debt for 150,000 residents.
interested in see how that works out.
Eliminate debt.
A government eliminating medical debt.
Now, if you have that debt and it gets eliminated,
I guess that's good for you,
but where is that money coming from?
If you owe debt to, let's say, a hospital,
let's say you owe five grand.
Government comes in and says,
we're eliminating that debt.
That means the hospital doesn't get that money, right?
or are they paying the hospital?
But whose money are they paying the hospital with?
Oh, that's right, the taxpayer.
This is what we mean by rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, taxes, giveaways, and control.
They do it with other people's money, OPM.
And you're supposed to thank them because you don't see it really coming out of your pocket.
and they've created so much debt that it's just a footnote when Biden forgives $150 billion.
In the news, in case you don't know, in the Sudan, 750,000 are on the brink of starvation because of a devastating civil war brought on by the creeps running it.
I'm not seeing any protests on the street against the people running Sudan.
Isn't that quite interesting?
But the Jews.
And there's been more and more attacks on Jews.
The good news is 99.something percent of the people are not racist anti-Semite schmucks.
The bad news is these are the people that are out there and get on video.
Of course, they only go in people.
hacks and they wear masks, they wouldn't do them one by one because I got newsfea.
This is going to come a point where the Jewish victims of these people are going to kick some arse,
and they're not going to know what hit them.
Just letting you know.
In the news, well, just we warned John this too.
McDonald's says its plant-based burger test has failed, that their customers are not
demanding fake meat.
Boy, we had no idea about that.
Because people want to go McDonald's and eat plants.
I could have told the people of McDonald's
don't ever put plant-based anything in your McDonald's.
But everybody's got to try something here, something there,
something missed, something that.
Anyway, we warned you about beyond meat.
As they were sending that stock sky high, I think that hit around $200, maybe even higher, back in 20.
It's under $7 now.
Just sometimes you've got to just think logically, what's the market for that?
What's the market?
You walk into Peter Lugers in New York or Deluxe?
Friscoes in New York.
Yeah, give me the plants.
It just doesn't work that way.
And in case you don't know, sales big time down for Beyond Meat, losing a ton of money,
I gather they'll stay a going concern, but how I don't know.
And again, sometimes you just got to ask yourself some logical questions.
and we just told you in its heyday, this thing is lasting.
And we're not trying to put down plants.
It's just logic.
And I still remember back, it was maybe 2001.
No, it was before that.
It was in the 90s.
Barron's, I think it was the front cover, did a thing about sell your outback steakhouse stock
because nobody wants to eat meat anymore.
That was the thing going on for about a year.
And I was thinking to myself, wait a minute, I live in Boker-Ratone at the time,
and there was an Outback Seik house on this southwest 18th Street in this little strip shopping center.
You couldn't get in on a Wednesday.
I think the stock went up tenfold after that.
Again, sometimes, and by the way, we're not advocating meat here.
We're just giving you some facts.
Just letting you know.
Next, when you have a chance, go get rid.
Roger Federer's graduation speech that he did at Dartmouth College.
Just had to mention that.
We loved this guy's speech.
And I've been going to Wimbledon every year just because of Federer.
So good.
But he's retired.
Nadel looks like he's done.
Djokovic is the last of.
And I think he's getting probably a couple of years.
end of unbelievable error in tennis.
Three people, I mean just dominating.
We're never, ever going to see that again, these three.
Amazing.
Just amazing.
And last but not least in the news, the election.
As we have stated, it's a binary choice.
And as we have stated, we can't have
another four years on purpose of open borders, massive debt and deficits, amongst a few other things.
You have a great evening drive carefully tomorrow and Thursday, Best of Gary.
We're going to have two, our part one and part two of our bare market, describing bare markets for you and how they work shows.
We'll be back Friday.
Have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
you'll feel better. I promise.
Peace out all. Stay well, be well.
Tonight.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb
on BizTalk. To listen to past
episodes or to get in contact with Gary,
go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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