Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE BOND MARKET CROAKS

Episode Date: September 21, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Channel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today.

Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Thursday, September 21st, 2023. Economics 101. We're under the radar here. We get to go on Fox News and Fox Business, but we're under the radar. When we go on Fox News and Fox Business, they have plenty of others that go on. So we're under the radar. When you think of people that are out there yapping about markets, economy, you know the names you think of.

We're under the radar. And we're good with that. we're actually pretty happy with that. We are also happy with how we explain things to you. No holds bar, no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive. We have no favorites when it comes to, as you know, this show is about the markets, the economy, and the Morlocks that affect the markets and the economy. And as you know, we have been the loudest voice under the radar for years about the gargantuan,

monolithic, unimaginable amounts of government interference via central banks in the markets and i'm actually happy we're not on satellite right now because the words i would use to describe the people in washington dc so economics 101 we have been telling you since christmas of 2018 that christmas eve j powell turned tail and started easing policy because markets were dropping, which led to him actually in October of 19 while the economy was strong, but the markets no longer listening to him, he announces that he was going to print money, which led into COVID, which led into his insurance. insane asylum. But we actually have to backtrack because really the insane asylum started with Ben Bernanke, printing money and government taking 800 billion of our tax dollars and give it to the Crooks on Wall Street that committed massive fraud with not one of them

indicted, not one of them going to jail, and in fact, most of them kept their jobs were promoted and made billions throughout the years. Economics 101, for starters, says, markets are supposed to be free. Stock markets, bond markets, are supposed to be free. They're supposed to be you and I, and Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob, and hedge funds, and mutual funds, and whatever funds, to buy at a certain price, at a certain time, at a certain size, the way they want to, without any interference. But then Bernanke shows up and interferes in the bond markets. But he was a piker.

He was a piker. What was the $85 billion a month? He was a piker. We're just letting you know he was ground zero. It all starts with him. It gave Jay Powell the ability to say, hey, he did it. I'm doing it because I'm here to save the world. And what have we done since 2019 for each and every one of you?

We walked through, described, explained in real time, up front what ultimate consequences there would be of one man printing trillions of dollars out of thin air not in circulation

not his money out of thin air and going into the bond market and buying the living crap out of bonds to take rates down to zero percent and keep them there. Well, meme stocks, marijuana stocks,

NFTs, crypto, all kinds of gargantuan crap that have all crashed. 23,000 coins were tried to foist upon an unwary public where some worked and they're still out there. there like, by the way, part of the bubble is an ability of somebody by the name of Kathy Wood to be down 75% in a fund, a diversified fund. She's down 75% plus right now from two years ago and she gets interviewed as a guru. That's part of the bubble. Economics 101. And our job is to

avoid to avoid all those problems, which we have done for you. Big time. But what other problems come from one man interfering with the biggest market in the world? Well, we found out, do you know Bank America is sitting on like hundreds of billions of dollars of losses right now? the good news is if they let those bonds go to maturity, they'll get all that money back. But what they were forced to do because of Jay Powell was go long term because you couldn't make any money because he took rates to zero. He interfered with the free markets.

Rates were never supposed to be there, which makes me go right to the main point. since Bernanke our debt and deficits have freaking skyrocketed do you know what's supposed to happen to interest rates when debt and deficits skyrocket they're supposed to go

higher to account for more debt it's economics 101 any company that has to go into massive amounts of debt and more debt and more debt to cover the previous debt should have to be able

to, excuse me, should have to pay out higher yields to those who lend to account for all that debt. But no, that did not happen. One man suppressed those yields, kept them down so long. And we warned you, that outcome first would be inflation. How did I know? I'm a dofus. but I know economics 101 that too much money chasing nothing creates inflation and we got it. And of course, you know what politics is about. You can't blame Powell because he's not elected. Politicians don't get anything out of blaming an unelected person. So they blame Biden.

But it was Powell that started this off, got the inflation going, and Biden just didn't help with his insane, insane growth of government and spending. We'll get to that in a little bit. So what we had was a complete suppression of yields. They suppressed yields with fake amounts of money out of thin air. Remember, let me repeat, the more debt that's out there, yields are supposed to go higher.

They took out a, not a mallet. They took out a bazooka and shot yields down to nothing, which forced the hand of everybody. You know who made out Austria. Austria was smart. They did a 100-year bond at 8 tenths of 1%. It's down like 60, 70%. You have to live to 100 to get your money out.

because the longer you go out on the bond market and the bond market goes bad, the more you lose. Simple as that. What was I telling you throughout the time? My bond market business shot the hell. I was telling you I had a good income business and I won't buy a bond because you can't make anything. Jay Powell suppressed it. Economics 101 will continue up next. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, Jay Powell suppressed bond yields. They wanted to go higher, but every time they tried, boom, let me take out another 100 million. Another $100 million, another billion. Nine trillion bucks he took it up to $9 trillion. Obscene amounts, unimaginable amounts.

And then they created the inflation. And you remember what happened? We're on radio telling you inflation's coming. And then inflation showed up. And then what happened? You got Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, and Jay Powell telling us at first there's no inflation

and then inflation starts to show up uh oh uh oh but they had to cover their arces it was transitory and we're wait wait wait transitory he printed nine trillion bucks transitory and then what happens

he was no longer printing money. He was no longer suppressing the bond market. He was no longer taken out that big, gigantic bazook and hammering down at yields. Yields started to go higher and higher and higher. And oopsie, upsie, all the reports started coming out. Inflation, inflation, inflation. Uh-oh. And it wasn't until inflation got hot that J-Powell says, uh-oh. Okay. So he raised rates a quarter point. That's how he started out. And then finally realized, holy crap.

So then he had to raise rates and raise them more and raise them more and raise them more. And raise them more. And raise them more. To finally, hey, I bought a one year treasury for a client yesterday. today at 5.4%. Two years ago, it was Zip. Money market yields are 5%.

Two years ago was Zip. All this courtesy of one man. And why are yields, why are they going up? Because the market's back to free. He's no longer printing. No longer suppressing. The market

is finally free. Economics 101, the way it's supposed to be. But Larenlise the problem. When Ben Bernanke started this moronic, imbecilic, stupid interference with free markets with printed money, our federal deficit, our government deficit was what? Seven, eight, nine trillion bucks? Give or take a couple? Look at me having to say, give or take a trillion. That's how bad it's got. We were 33 freaking trillion dollars of debt. now. What did I tell you economics 101 is? The more debt, the more yields have to account for that debt. Now last week, I believe it was Morgan Stanley, an analyst there saying, by bonds, yields are

coming down. And I came on this show and said to you, this person must be high. How can yields come down if we have 33 trillion of debt, and Joe Biden is running a $2 trillion deficit this year. The championship belt has been ripped from Donald Trump, who ripped it from Barack Obama, on debt, an unimaginable criminal, $2 trillion debt this year, while Joe Biden stands in front of the camera and says, um, um, I lowered deficits one point. $7 trillion. No, he didn't. He's a liar.

Oh, but politicians lie, Gary. I don't care. He's a liar. That was COVID. But I digress. We're 33 trillion. We have $2 trillion this year. A ton of debt at lower yields.

Suppressed yields are coming due in the next few years. What do you think the lenders are going to want as that debt comes due? Higher yields. So Economics 101 says yields are going higher higher. Unless Jay Powell wakes up and creates another $9 trillion to buy up bonds. But there's a problem with that because economics 101 was they created inflation with the first $9 trillion. Are you going to make it even worse with the next, so he can't. And I can promise you the markets are so on edge right now. If he turned tail today, it would be looking as desperation. So, bought bonds, rigged yields, kept them low, kept them at zero, while debt blew up to the upside. And at that point in time, yields were

supposed to go up and they could not because he just kept pounded away with fake money. Not with real money. In case you do not know, our central bank, J. Pell, you know how smart he is? And he still got his job? They're down a trillion bucks themselves on all those bonds they bought. They're down a trillion bucks. So they suppressed yields down. Now they're normalizing.

But they're no longer normalizing on $8 trillion, $9 trillion, $10 trillion of federal debt. It's $33, and it's a guarantee to go to $50, if not more. This year, the first trillion of our dollars, our tax dollars, our precious tax dollars are going towards interest because of these people. Economics 101 states, Hmm How much debt is out there? Sell bonds

Yields go higher If yields go higher What does that mean? Well have you seen the housing numbers? We got another distortion That we didn't even know about And we called everything We figured

Housing Would crash in price Instead, nobody's selling. Why? Because everybody refinanced or got mortgages at 3% and less. And now on average at 7.6 today, heading for 8. Who the hell wants to sell a house with a 3% mortgage to buy one that's going towards 8%. We're talking huge differences here.

So there's the next distortion brought to you by J Powell, Economics 101. So the Fed comes in and they're actually doing what this should be doing right now. Getting the hell out of the way. They've raised rates. They're above the market. Only one problem. And nobody wants to listen to me, Gary, under the radar. Even though we've nailed it.

Up next. That and more. This is the one only investors edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. Time for an underwear refreshes now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. This episode is brought to you by Spreker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, in about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here.

He's a cinder on a bar. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. By the way, just in case, I'm pretty short with somebody out of Morgan Stanley that said buy bonds. If I'm wrong on that, I apologize. It was somebody. So let me just take that back.

It was somebody big on Wall Street. So, for the past few months, what has been the latest thing I've been saying to you and my peeps on TV? pay no attention to Jay Powell. He doesn't matter anymore. The only time he will matter is if he decides to start printing money again. He doesn't matter. Watch the 10-year yield. How many times have I said that on the show here?

Every day? If the 10-year yield goes higher, it's a problem. Why? Mortgages. Why? Credit cards. And an indebted country brought to you by these indebted. Ooh, in D.C.

Both parties. Just remember, all the Republicans are out there right now. Oh, the spending, the spending. They didn't say a freaking word when Trump ran up $6 trillion in debt. Not a word. Just remember, the mother's milk of politicians is government spending. They have all shown they don't give a crap about balancing the books. and it just took a Marxist like Joe Biden,

who's been marketing himself as a moderate for 50 years to show who he is. He's making Bernie Sanders happy. So we've been telling you, just follow the 10-year yield that's going to tell you everything. And here's why. From the consumer, from the smallest of consumers to the biggest of consumers,

to the smallest of businesses, to the biggest of businesses, to the smallest of corporations, to the biggest of corporations, to everything. If yields go higher, everything through the pipes costs more to move and do. It's simple as that. And eventually, markets have to react. Because if I am a corporation and I have to go out and I need some bonds and I got to pay somebody six instead of four,

and actually six instead of one, you should see what bonds yields were at their lows. The crappiest the companies that should have been paying nine were paying two. Distortions. Economics 101. What's the other part of your Hansman Buff's host? Repetoir is technical analysis. one of the best in the business

and one of the issues we have had is that the 10-year yield was bumping up against bumping up against 15-year high why because it's no longer being suppressed just remember this by one man and his whims that's the sick thing about this he didn't get approval from Congress or Senate or the White House, no accountability.

One man, no accountability, most powerful man on earth, printed nine trillion bucks, and Wall Street just sat there with thumbs up their butts, picking their nose, because they were happy. Because all that money printing got everything. Oh, look at, oh, GameStop and AMC, oh, look at this, look at that. And that all blew up. They were able to bring out Rivian at a, at a, at a, at a, at a, at a, market cap almost as big as GM and Ford, even though GM and Ford had 250 billion in revenues and Rivian at zero. They were able to bring out Coinbase and this, all kinds of crap.

And nothing on Coinbase, but basically they were born to sell crypto and you know what the deal with crypto is. It is just a, an asset to trade. There's nothing to it. Well, Kathy Wood tells us Bitcoin's going to a million bucks. That's pretty funny. Economics 101. So we had the Fed yesterday, and as I have told you, I just won't watch. I don't want to listen to him. I don't want to watch them.

Nothing personal, but he destroyed markets and created all these freaking distortions. God only knows where it finishes up. So you take Economics 101. On one hand, you suppressed interest rates and kept them down at zero while our debt goes from, let's use 10, to 33 trillion. And now you're not suppressing anymore. And now you get a Marxist in the White House that's running a $2 trillion deficit this year. And I'm just simply worried, I'm just simply worried that the bond market, economics 101 has to account for this misery brought to you by Washington, D.C. and one man.

Because the bottom line is he should have never been at zero percent. He should have never been interfering with markets. He should have let them be, oh, but wait a minute, COVID. Didn't he get us out of COVID? He didn't do squat. You know who got us the economy better? Out of COVID? us, the 150 million of us who wake up every day to do better for ourselves and our families, not Jay Powell. Now I will say this, as much as I can't stand our government, they actually did the right thing during COVID, doling out those bucks to companies that were, we were shut down. I got that.

Now they got to clean up all the people that stole. I'm here in its billions. So the worry right now is, and it's simple. economics 101 is simple how high are yields going to go to accommodate for this gargantuan amount of debt that is guaranteed to get even more gargantuan going forward and today the yields gaped up and broke above the 15 year high at 4.48% on the 10 year and by the way that's still low but the economy has been used to for many years now low and now it's higher and how is the economy going to adjust and is 4.48 going to go to 4.6 and 4.9 or 5.2 I don't know. Maybe tomorrow bond yields top out. I'd be happy as all heck. I'm all for it.

All I know is in real time. There is no more suppression of yield. and they're popping now and the market's reacting now. And as we have told you for how many weeks and months now, the underbelly of the market has been terrible. While the NASDAQ was up 30% on the year, we're trying to tell you that you take out the top eight and maybe it's up a couple. And what if they get the top eight?

And they're starting to get them a little bit. We'll see. and advance declines every day in the market have been terrible new yearly highs versus new yearly lows terrible so economics 101 now has yields up the 4.48 on the 10 year in the fives on the lower the ones the twos and stuff economics 101 is always told us eventually we're going to have a pretty damn good recession if you have the inverted yield curves where you get more on shorter term than longer term when economics 101, you're supposed to get more on longer term than shorter term. And if you just look up the words inverted yield curve and recessions, you will see what it has to say.

It has a good record. And therein lies economics 101. The suppression of interest rates, the biggest market in the world by one man, when debt and deficits have gone vertical. That's the opposite of what should have been done. He should have been out of the way, let the market do its thing. This enabled these miscreants in D.C.

to take us to where we are. By the way, how the hell do we have homeless in poverty? How is it possible that since 2008, they've gone into debt about $23 trillion. Now let's take out $3 trillion for COVID. $20 trillion plus all the money we send them. You know how much money we sent them since 08? Let's see, that's 15 years.

Probably spent them $40 trillion during those years. So $60 trillion since 08. How do we have any homeless or poverty? I'll tell you why. You know why. I won't use the word. Up next, today's market. economics 101

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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to... What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, Ready go.

In The Wester's Edge with Gary Culpa. So, Economics 101 is coming home to Roost as one man was able to rig and manipulate interest rates down to the bone while debt and deficits exploded. Think about that. The worst possible longer-term scenario. And now you're getting the come-upits on yields. and the only thought process in my mind is how much of a comeuppance it's going to be. I will keep my fingers crossed that it stays limited. Because what if we go to 6 or 7% on the 10 year?

What if mortgage rates go to 9 and 10 or even more? The dirty little secret, which is not that secret, but has not been yelled in screen. about because of the collusion between the media, the national media, and politicians. They let them get away with their gross, overspending, unaccountable, overspending and deficit spending, and the kissing of the arses of their friends and relatives and the absolute unadulterated corruption that you're seeing it in real time. from so many areas.

God only knows where all this money went to, that the government program of Social Security, they refused to do anything about, even though it is doomed, doomed. Doomed. That today's workers are paying for the retirees when they told us all the money was going into a lockbox. Do you remember that?

Do you remember campaign finance reform where they said they would taking money out of politics? But what they did was they opened it up to where I read the other day. I read the other day how much money is going to be in the next presidential election. I'm like, I can't even utter the words what I said. They lied about it all. All of them. And the national media let them get away with it.

Why? Because they will not be able to interview them if they really hit. them hard the way they should. So today yields 4.48 on the 10-year up 131. It's a big number for a day and a breakout to the upside. And again, we will always, going forward, take all our information that the market gives us and if it gets better tomorrow, we'll yell and scream it. But it worsened today. Worse and much to where junk bonds topping out, real estate, real estate, really getting in trouble. Leadership stocks breaking down. The major indices finally topping out here right now. We already know how bad the Russell 2000 and the broader market has been. We already

know how bad so many areas of the market I've been highlighting for you, all of them. Well, today, the Dow is down 370, the S&P 72, NASDAQ 245, NASDAQ 100, 275. Those are your risk-on, risk-off areas. Transports, 107, advanced declines. Oh, 574 up 3416 down on the New York, 1093 up 3,035 down on the NASDAQ. New yearly highs, I don't think I can find one, and New Yearly lows just picked up to 676 on both the New York and NASDAQ. We hardly look at the American. And this is the market accounting for higher yields brought to you by,

economics 101. It is pretty simple if you just take one little step back and don't be confused. One man was able to suppress yields while debt skyrocketed and now he's no longer suppressing those yields and now we just have to worry about are those yields are really going to get out a hand to the upside? I don't know that answer. But I do know with 33, trillion in debt and a bunch of it's coming due in the next few years and it's going to be at higher levels and one trillion a year is going to be interest and we're going to 50 trillion it's a guarantee there's nothing to stop it joe biden took 4.4 trillion spending in 2019 and this year's going to be six in change the greatest increase in short order and the republicans let

if I were in that party and running the show, I would have told them to kiss off. I would have bought 30 minutes of time in prime time and show two little posters, one of where spending was in 2019 and where Joe Biden was going to take it. And do you know every dime of the increase is debt? Not your debt. Your kid's debt. And their kids' debt. and Joe Biden don't give a crap

and these politicians don't give a crap do you know why? Because they're either going to be dead or retired. They're going to be gone. And then they're going to come at you for big, big, big taxes because they're going to blame it on each other. Janet Yellen wants a world tax.

How do you like that for your Treasury Secretary? The defender of our treasure wants a world tax. Yeah, sure. Economics 101. Maybe I take that back. Economics 101 is biting back right now. And I think I'm smart. I don't have the solution because unfortunately we need to let free markets be

and we need to let things go where they want to go based on the buying and selling of you, me, investors, traders, and speculators to where it decides to go. and then somebody better get a hold of DC and stop what's run amok right now, dead in its tracks. Well, we will see those 10% yields, if not more. Economics 101. I hope I explained it well. We take no joy. Have a great evening drive carefully.

When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. and they will feel better, you will feel better, I promise. Have a great one, everybody. Serenity now. I'll be on with Neil Cavuto tomorrow,

new now or Fox Business Network. Don't miss it. Peace out all. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X. card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.