Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE BREAKOUT [08.04.2026]

Episode Date: August 4, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Tuesday, August 4th, 2006.

Hope you're having a good day. As always, we have a ton to talk about. a crap load of things to talk about. We'll do the markets, the economy, war, Iran, breakouts, breakdowns, earnings, socialists, elections, elections. And I have to report Dory Funk Jr., a stalwart of professional wrestling.

I believe he was in his late 80s passed away. His brother Terry Funk was a favorite of mine. He passed away a few years ago, much younger than Dory Funk Jr. Anyway, as you know, I'm a quite the professional wrestling fan going back many, many years. Brock Lesner also announced his retirement, so quite the day. in professional wrestling for moi. But the big story is the markets. And you know what we do on days like today?

We act like we're just reporters writing a byline. That's what we're going to do. We're going to describe on a technical basis what we saw today. We'll do a little bit of what we think is the why. but mostly what we'll see. We'll do a little bit of the elections tonight. Socialists in the White House. Got to add what the president said.

As you know, we've been calling him a socialist. And boy, do we get some flack on that. But he proved it again today. And again, why does it matter? Because we don't want socialists. We believe in free markets. 100%, not 99, not 99. not selectively, we believe that there should be no encumbrances upon you being great or the best you can possibly be.

That's all. It's simple as that. We'll get into that. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, just put our name in. And you can follow us. And if you'd like to email us, just be nice. And I have to tell you, we've had a lot of people disagree with me lately. But nobody's being a meany. I was going to use a different word. And that's because it's okay to disagree without having fits. It's what makes the world go around.

Unless you like terrorism and Hamas and all that crap, then we have some issues. But really, I'm getting a lot of people. on the Trump side, emailing me, not happy with me. And I just email back and say, well, why didn't you email me when I was ripping Joe Biden? Oh, that's because, you know, favoritism, as they say. Anyway, we'll keep doing what we're doing with no agenda, no ulterior motive, and no bias whatsoever.

We are not R. We are not D. We went independent years ago. Why? because they prove to us they don't care about you, the taxpayer. They all flap their gums as you get closer to the elections. And then they run massive debt and deficits and corruption and insider trading. And we pretty much have no respect for them.

You got one guy right now that it turns out there's a decent chance. He beat the crap out of his wife and his kid. And I can't get somebody in the Republican Party saying, Get your ass out. I don't understand this. They got George Santos out, thankfully, and then he was pardoned. Anyway, you get my point. We just like goodness.

Okay, so let's get right into it. As we said, we're just going to report to you what happened today. Take it for what it's worth or what you decide to do with it. We don't tell you what to buy, sell, short, or cover. It's on you. Today, the S&P 500 finished up 136 points. That's about 1.8%. It's still playing around in my computer.

It is broken out of a nine-week trading range. It hit a high on June 2nd and broke out today and broke out pretty handily because the breakout was at 70. 26.21. We closed at 77.36 today. Wow, huh? The Dow gapped up, by the way, everything gapped up today. The Dow gapped up today off of Caterpillar, opened up like 90 some odd points on earnings. Only finished up 46, but still a good 46. We finished up non-apeutic. We finished up non-a-old points. 907 points, I think at one time today, we were up like 150. The breakout was 53-289. We closed at 54085.

So the Dow and S&P broke out today into new highs. Now when we say to you, oh, things broke out of range. let's make like nobody knows what that means if you don't mind for those that actually don't in the markets actually in anything in life you could plot if you are running the hundred yard dash in high school and you're running it every day you can actually plot on a chart your time And you can see whether you're doing better or not. You draw the little lines. You put the dates at the bottom.

And you can break out of range. And of course, you'd go backwards because the less time, the better. Oh, I broke out of range. Look at that. Or do it better. You are a jogger and you want to see how far you go every day. And for three months, you got to this point. And then finally, you got to another point,

father, oh, you broke out of that range. Well, in the stock market, you have stock sectors, mutual funds, ETFs, you have commodities, you have countries, you got all kinds of crap. So imagine a stock at the bottom is time each day. And you can do it weekly, how things finish on a week. You can do daily you can do monthly but for our purposes right now daily so you got this chart it goes back one year and for the last four months price has been stuck in just a range oh every time price went to a hundred it could not go above every time price went down to 90 it refuses to go below And you just go back and forth and back and forth. And sometimes you only get up to 97, sometimes 92.

But the high is 100, the low's 90. For three months, for four months. And then all of a sudden you go back up to 100. Instead of pulling back to 90, you only pull back to 97. So all of a sudden you're at somewhat of a higher low and maybe a shot, boom, you break out above 100. three months, you can't get above it and then you move above it. That's the breakout.

And what that typically means is you're entered a new sphere to go higher. And of course, if it's the other way around breaking 90, to the downside, you're a worse sphere and you more than likely go lower. Now, just because you break above that 100 does not mean it's going to stick. you go 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 200, and then eight days later, you're at 97. There's no rule of law that it's going to stick. You break below 90, you go to 87, 86. There's no rule law that you're not going to be back between 90 and 100 within a few days. But when you get a plethora, notice the big word, of things doing it at the same time,

it's usually more meaningful. when you have an index of 500 stocks do it, it's usually meaningful, usually meaningful, usually. Same goes for a group. If you have 100 stocks in a group, and I can go back to April 8th. On April 8th, the semiconductor index broke out of range. It was the first thing that broke out.

And along with that, well, it was a bunch of stocks. And what was the leading group? For a while, the semi-conductors. Up next, we'll continue along these lines. Lots to cover. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals

to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. that's 888422 55559 that's 888 422 55559 investment advisory services offered through coltbaum capital management it's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this and we'll call

once again to Investors Edge. So do you remember that you got the semiconductors broke out April 8th, but for a bunch of weeks, we're on this show saying, you know, the semiconductors and artificial intelligence stocks are not acting as well as they used to. In fact, they were doing something else. It was a characteristic that we worry about that causes drops or is just a characteristic of a drop to come. And guess what? That's what happened. After a big run, all of a sudden, price went very wide and loose and topped out and got hit pretty hard.

Which led to yesterday when we thought, you know, I think the semis will rally up some here and we'll see how it goes. Well, the semiconductors had a bafo day today as we head into some more earnings. And that was a big help to the market today. So we told you about the Dow and S&P, the NASDAQ 671 points. The socks today was up, if I can find it. I know I got it somewhere, 6.5%. And that is an index, which means a bunch of stocks were up 7, 8, 9, 10, some were up 15, 20%, 15%. Of course, a lot of them were down 50 to 60%.

So if something's down 50% and rallies 20%, you're still down 40%. my rusty abacus did that. But I just want to let you know the S&P broke out today. The Dow broke out today. The NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100. Well, first let's start with the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ has been much stronger than the NASDAQ 100 for whatever reason. You know, whatever.

The NASDAQ gapped up today broke above the 50-day moving average. handily, which was sitting just under 26,000. It was up 671 points today. Dang. The NASDAQ 100, which was weaker, is not as far above the 50-day moving average, but got above it pretty decently. In fact, the 50-day moving average on is 29386. We close at 29733.

Now, what's so important about this? 50-day moving average. Well, we talk to about characteristics of good markets and bad markets. Well, first and foremost, listen carefully. Price cannot ascend bullishly if you're below the 50-day moving average. Simple as that. Price cannot ascend bullishly if you're not above the 50-day moving average. day moving average. Simple as that. How do we know this? It's the physicality of the market.

It's the nature of the beast. It's how it works. And I get asked sometimes, why not do the 51 day or the 49? All I can tell you is I was taught about the 50 day and it works. It is the physicality of the market. So guess what we do? We're constantly, number one, we only want to really concentrate on things that are above, even though when things bottom in bare markets, you're going to be below and you can recognize that. But in order to be in a good bull market, you've got to be above. The other line we use is nothing bad can happen if you're above. Nothing bad. The worst case scenario, if you're above the 50-day moving average, as you're sitting around.

The best case is you're in a great ascent from 8 o'clock to 2 o'clock. The other line is, nothing good can happen if you're below the 50-day moving average. Nothing bad above, nothing good below. but when you're above the 50 day does not mean you're going to send. As I said, you could just sit around. When you're below the 50 day moving average, doesn't mean the end of the world's at hand. You can just be sitting around and then turn back up.

But it's the first stopping point for everything we do. Think about that. That's why I'm always weirded out. when I see somebody talking about bare market stuff bare market stuff and even though you had a strong day

in the semiconductor index today, you're still below it wait a minute, Gary, you said you can't ascend if you're below it. Well, if you crash and you're way below it, you can rally up into it. We're talking about a real bullish phase, a real bull market. That's what we are talking about. So very good day.

It starts off with Caterpillar. First off, this is of note. Caterpillar stock just recently dropped from 1,073 to 780. It opens up today at $935. It closed yesterday at 8.35. It was up 100 bucks. Right off the get-go, that's 650 Dow points. But it got cut in half. Only finished up 46 bucks. What does that tell you? It tells you they opened it up too high. Simple as that. They opened it up too high. And there's still work to do on the stock. Simple as that. And as we said, we're in the midst of this earning season now. There's going to be good.

There's going to be bad. We'll see how it goes. I can tell you there were a bunch of blowups today in a good market. But there was also some real strong moves. Caterpillar was still up 40-something bucks. Palantir. What have we told you the problem with Palantir is? It's not their earnings and revenue growth.

Very strong. It's valuation. And at the highs, it had a valuation of like $500 billion with $5 billion in sales 100 times. So the stock went from 207 all the way down to 106. And in a better market recently, it's rallied up a little bit. It was up 37 bucks today, 29%. Why? earnings up big, revenue up big.

So they continued along their lines. Very strong earnings and revenue and had a good move. The valuation is still over $300 billion with about, I think they're around $6 billion in revenue, so valuation's still out of hand. But maybe the market will look forward and I'll keep doing better. That was a help today. what else made the moves much more coming on your way this is the one only investors edge

and listening to america is talking investors edge he's got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary called bomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him and welcome once again to Investors edge and of course recently you had big gaps to the upside in Microsoft, big gap in Amazon. You had a bad gap to the downside in Google, and it did something that's not out of the ordinary. It filled the gap, went back, went right up. But we're still in this big earning season, and we'll see what comes of it. I'm noticing how good was today, the semiconductors? Well, AMD, a very important semiconductor. After hours, closed at 518.

I got it at 472. That's down 9%. That's going to probably affect the semi-conductors in the morning. How's that for starters? Here's another semi-A lab closed at 361, at 367 in the aftermarket. SpaceX reported. SpaceX was up $9 to $3.6. today to 125. They reported, I haven't seen the numbers yet, it's down eight bucks in the

aftermarket, just about. I take that back. It was up $10.80 today and it's down eight bucks in the aftermarket. I was looking at percentages. So SpaceX down, again, valuations. and that is of course big time part of the equation on everything we do, especially when valuations are just completely nuts. And as you know, we've covered a lot of names throughout the years of how to hell. I think my favorite one ever was Rivian. came public in how far back was that? 2012, right?

2012. And when they brought it public, they came out at ridiculous valuation, had no sales. And then the stock got ramped up. I was like, what is going on here? and when at the time it had a valuation it went to 180 bucks it had a valuation it had a valuation it had a valuation that was just about as high as GM and Ford put together GM and Ford put together and they had those sales GM and Ford what 300 billion in sales

and we just said flippantly on the show, that's probably going to go to $10. And guess what it did? It went to $10. And by the way, it's become a big company. They're now doing $6, $7 billion in revenues. The problem remains, they make no money.

All they do is lose freaking money. So that's the story with that. And so we keep watch. We also keep watch on things like beyond meat and people heralding plant food like it's going to be the next. What? And that was more of a prediction based on, what are you kidding? What are you kidding? And of course, you know what happened there.

And by the way, this is not a rip on the company. It's just that people. aren't going to eat plants for burgers, you know, and stuff like that. Even though they still do, I think, they do about 60 million a quarter. So it's not like they're out of biz. It's just that it went insane. So that's a little bit of what's going on today. And we'll see how aftermarket goes. AMD just bounced up another 10 bucks after being down a lot. I see Amgen reported that's in the Dow. I think it's, hmm.

I'll tell you in a second. Amgen's flat in the aftermarket. I'm looking at a few others booking holdings. Up 10 bucks. That's been acting a little bit better. But I'm just watching SpaceX a little bit. And I'll look at the numbers afterwards and we'll see how that one goes. The biggest issue with SpaceX again is, come on, dudes.

Valuations. Shouldn't be hard to figure out. And as you know, we were very agnostic on it. We basically stated that we had no edge except when it broke below the secondary price when it came public. And then, of course, when it broke below the IPO price, we said that's going to invite some selling. Okay, SpaceX loss of $0.9.0.9. We expected that. And better than expected. But still ridiculous valuations. If we were in a bare market right now, I think SpaceX would probably have come at – well, I think the stock would be 30 or 40. bucks right now. Notwithstanding the future and the big growth. What else happened today?

Artificial intelligence stocks bounce nicely with the semis. I've been scanning like a madman all day and we'll see what I find tonight. I've been writing up notes left and right. And again, we'll see what I come up with. And for a change, software stocks were up today with the semiconductors. There has been a whole thing that every time the semis are up, the software was down. Every time the software was up, the semis were down. And now we'll see what the market decides as we move forward. AMD Well, it's bouncing around But it's still down

27 bucks The 4991 It was just down 40 Now they'll move that around like crazy New high list picked up today New low list dropped The story is Listen to the story

That supposedly Supposedly a deal is getting done with Iran for the Strait of Hormuz. We've heard that several thousand times in the last three months from the president who, I'm not going to say anything bad. That'll save that in a little bit. and supposedly this time something may happen. It's not a funny thing.

While the president said everything's so much better and all that, Iran was still lighten up the sky with rockets. So leave no doubt, this is just my opinion. Iran has the upper hand. The president has no choice. choice has to do this. We're going to give away. The word is not the store, but we're giving in to them just to get out of this.

We can't keep staying in this. We're finding out we've used up a lot of ammunition, some of the big rocketry, whatever. So there's a lot of moving parts. Let's hope this news is correct. Let's hope. We have 18 dead. Many injured that they're not reporting on some loss of limbs. Enough.

We'll keep you informed. We'll keep your breast again without any ulterior motive, any bias, any agenda, and all that crap. I have 12 pages of earnings this week. There's plenty more to come, but man, the jello's moving on the plate right now, and we'll see what's next. Again, oil prices drop five bucks today because of that, yields dropped again. That is going to be vital. What have we told you about that? How important.

I think that was the driving force behind the market getting better, but also got some good earnings coming out. Leave no doubt. You got some good earnings coming out. Doesn't mean you're going to get good reactions, but good earnings. Hey, up next. Yeah, there's an election tonight, primaries, socialism, and all that crap. This is the one that only Investor's Edge. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In investors Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors' Edge. So in case you don't know, there's some primaries tonight.

And the story is there's these Democratic Socialists that are making headway. I believe Michigan's tonight. And the Democratic Socialist is kicking the moderates' butt. And when I use the term Democratic Socialists, they are just plain old control freak socialist slash Marxist slash communist. The guy running New York City is a communist. I'd say it to his face. Everything that comes out of his mouth yells and scream communism.

We're talking the economic front, not kidnapping and murder and things like that. But what did we tell you what the problem was? We told you this president's a socialist. And I get, you know, emails. and when I write each example, did he really say that? And therein lies the problem. So just so you know,

our president yesterday, he was surrounded by, I guess, some cabinet people, being asked questions by some reporters, and he was putting down a couple of the reporters, as usual. And he was blasting the Democrats. They're socialist, their communists,

the red scare. Socialists. And really what a socialist is believes the government is smarter than you and should be doing everything for you and you make too much money and you need to share it. That's, that's, and it's just them controlling things

like the guy running New York City, there's going to be government-run supermarkets. And I told you yesterday they wanted IDs. They got rid of that today because they got made fun of because they don't want voter ID. But it's not going to work. Oh, we're going to do government run and it's going to be so much cheaper. Well, you're going to have so many people lined up. from here 20 blocks down and people are going to get pissed off because it's all going to run out very quickly. The producers of all these products are not going to want to send because they work on very thin margins of what I'm going to send you and I'm going to lose 20% of my money.

Go screw yourself. So it's not going to work. It never has, never will. But the problem with socialist, Marxists, and communists, they're also idiots. President Trump today out loud said to the big oil companies, you're making too much money and you need to share it, give money back to the people. That is the definition of socialism. A couple of weeks ago, he threatened gas stations if they don't lower their prices.

Definition of socialism. This is the same day he's calling others socialists. Therein lies the problem. You have a socialist president that's running $2 trillion deficits, self-dealing with him and his family, making billions of dollars. How can he sit there and tell people, I'm the affordability guy? You can't. How can you tell the country you're the face?

guy, you can't. There's no credibility. And therein lies the big problem. And that's why part of why they are getting headway is because people are seeing all this. Somebody who's paycheck to paycheck or in debt is seeing the president getting, making billions of dollars during the presidency. His kids are cutting deals, getting 600 million. dollars from our government for startup companies because they joined the startup. It's sheer insanity. If you're not walking the walk or talk, you're not going to be able to talk to talk and nobody's going to believe.

And that's why these people are making inroads. And by the way, Trump is not the first. Trump is not the first. But he's the biggest. And therein lies the problem. And the Republican Party, they got no say. They got no grapefruits. They don't call them on anything.

They're afraid to. And I almost can't blame him because he puts them out the pasture and they end up losing primaries. They're in lies. We want somebody that leaves business alone. No more tariffs. Stop hiking taxes. Stop 40 times a day posting things. putting this down, that down, up the favoritism here and there. That's how these people are

gaining favor. Because people see this stuff. And I must tell you, I believe American people are a lot smarter than people than a lot of people think. And I think they're seeing all this and like, screw that. Screw that. So they're going. and for somebody that's promising them to take care of them and do things for them. Little do they know that it never works. And you're going to see it with the stupid supermarkets. We're seeing it where they keep raising taxes in certain states and people are running for the hills.

So that's the story. And if I was the president's advisor, that's what I'd be talking to him about. But I don't think he listened to anything I had to say. Such as life. Anyway, so that's the story on that. We'll see what happens tonight. And then we'll head to November. The Democrats will win the House.

The Senate, not so sure. I think God's favor, the Republicans will keep that. But guess what the House gets to do? Investigate and impeach. And they're going to just impeach Trump again. they're not going to you can't be knocked out they're going to do investigations on all this stuff i'm talking about and it's going to be one hell of the two years that's all i can tell you till tomorrow have a great we have a great day drive carefully when you get home do like i do make sure you

hug your family hug your children they will feel better you'll feel better i promise they will be well till tomorrow peace out bye bye this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garykai.com. That's Garykay.com.