Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE BROAD MARKET [07.10.2024]

Episode Date: July 10, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is the 10th of July, 2004. Hope you're having a good day. I'm hoping to have a good day tomorrow. I'm flying up tonight. I have yet to see my grandson, and I'm hoping tomorrow. I'm feeling much better.

I don't sound that great, but I'm feeling much better. We'll see how it goes. Talking about much better, we'll talk about the market in a second. What have we been complaining about for a very long time on the market? We'll get into that in a second. But first, this is investment. Mr. Zed, serious talk on everything that affects you. The markets, the economy, your job, your industry, Washington, D.C., and everything else they are doing.

And I can go on and on with that, which we do go on and on a daily basis. But we'll hold off to later on that because we want to cover a few things here. Ladies and gentlemen, we do the markets first and foremost. Oh yeah, by the way, if you don't follow us on Twitter, which is X, do that. And oh, yeah, we'll post the radio show at garyk.com also. And if you'd like to email me, just be nice. I can't begin to tell you how many emails we have received from people coming up with instead of, I don't want to be called a grandpa. We're getting all kinds of names.

No bad names. we'll get into that. Anyway, I want to get started with the markets. We'll complain and whine and all that stuff in a little bit. Our simple complaint each and every day has been this year. Small caps are down on the year while the S&P has been going topside. Midcaps have been weak. The broad market, ble.

new highs well new yearly lows have been outstripping new yearly highs the NASDAX advanced decline line has been croaking croaking

while the NASDAQ keeps going up because as we have said seven names are now 48% of the NASDAQ 100 those same seven are like 34% of the S&P so we're always on a daily basis waiting to see if other things decide to show up. And in case you don't

know, one of the things we look for are two little symbols. One is M-D-Y, which is the S&P Mid-Cap 400 Exchange traded fund. The other one is the IWM, which is the Russell 2000. and in case you do not know the Russell 2000 is trading the IWM is trading right now where it traded the first week in January of 21 and is a ways down from the highs of November 21 in fact whoa let me make sure I got this right before I even tell you this 2458 was the Russell 2000 in December December of 21, it's 2046 today, as the market has decidedly gone big cap, which is just fine and dandy, because what have we been telling you on a daily basis? Big cap over large cap, big cap, over midcaps. And it hasn't been really hard to say that. What we're dealing with here is simply a race, and we measure that race on a daily basis. So just let you know, Today is one of those days where, I don't know, I'm trying to think what time during the day I'm about to tell you, the small and midcaps started waking up around noon and they had a good day.

Now, we're going to tell you the Russell 2000 today was up 1%. Not a big deal. We're going to tell you the midcaps are up about 1.2%. not a big deal but in the scheme of things while the big caps are acting well if the small caps can join now we're talking and we're also talking potential for longevity

while all this craziness has been going on so we're just letting you know today the weak Dow up about 1.1%. The week Russell, about just about 1%, the weak midcaps, about 1.2%. Let's hope it's the start. Because on the big cap front, you're getting a little bit, a little bit.

And what we mean by that is, oh, they're due. They're due. And what do I mean that they're due? It's kind of simple. When you have the mega of mega caps like an apple go vertical, they're due. And I can go with other names. When you have the semiconductor index, I'm not going to say it's one for the records, but notwithstanding a real sharp drop in the second or third week of Drune,

somewhat vertical. we're hoping other things show up. It was still another good day for those areas. It was just good to see. The other thing, what have we been complaining about? Economically sensitive areas and the like. They had a decent day. Nothing special.

Nothing spectacular. But they had a decent day. It's good to see. That's all. while all this craziness is going on. And in the land of crazy, it's, you know, I think we work our tail off. I think we're all good people. I'm not so sure we deserve what we're getting out of D.C. right now.

Tigers are eaten their young. And we'll get into that in a little bit. My main thrust today was a much better. broad market today. I don't have to come on here and just say to you, oh, it was this area, this area, and this area. You had some other things working today. Now, whether or not they can come out of their doldrums, I don't know. One day does not make. And when I say one day does not make, I mean it. If you look at the mid-cap thing, Bob, M-D-Y, and it's just been sitting around. If you look at the Russell 2000 or the IWM, just sitting around, then you compare it to the SPY, the S&P and the QQ, not just sitting around.

If you compare it to the semiconductor index, not just sitting around. Oh, did I mention the transports? They still stink, though they were up today too. So better day for the broad market. You know how I complain to you if you get 150 stocks from whoever's managing it, 90 of them are dead money? Maybe they woke up a little bit today. And maybe it'll continue. That was the story of the day.

Much more green on my screens than we have seen in quite a while. And may I state for the record. and I big time state for the record. I can't begin to tell you how many days we've been here and the NASDAQ was up 100 and I looked to my left and my lower market cap NASDAX are all red. And then I look to my right and I see Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and a few others, green.

So let's put that in our wheelhouse. See if we can get some continuation on this. Don't know. But a good day, finally, today. And I think you can tell by my tone, in order to have longevity, you need participation. that's all.

And the Dow today, some participation. And there's been a lot of Dow stocks that have been weak. Up next, we'll continue. With this, I'm Gary. This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living.

specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-9. That's 888 4-2-2-5-59. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management.

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Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big, thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might

someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Call. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Thanks for being with us today. So I'm just letting you know with some of these names, it's rarefied air.

And what I'm talking about is trajectory. There's a usual ebb and flow in the markets. Two steps up, one step down. Two steps up, one step down. For some names, I don't even know what to tell you. I'm mentioning namely Apple here 16% in a month it shouldn't happen

but now we're hearing Apple is going to ship 10% more iPhones than expected because they believe doesn't mean they're selling them they believe the AI thing is going to help them out so maybe a rhyme in a reason

and as far as the semis the AI talk continues so equipment makers and the like still going and it's an outlier move it's the best way

I can explain it it's outlier out of the norm other areas to go over gold decent day to day just range bound so far but remember gold broke out back in March

broke out again in excuse me in February broke a little again in March and now for about 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 weeks been sitting back and forth. If it breaks out again, you'll know it because we'll tell you. Gold stocks are actually acting better than the metal right now. Few names are actually at highs.

That's probably good news. I keep telling you the economy slowing. Well, how's the market going up? It's simple. Yields are behaving and sometimes you get what is known in the market's momentum. And they feed on themselves. We explain to how the portfolio managers work and they're constantly looking at what's going on in the market. And they get questioned.

Why not own more of this? Why not own less of that? But really the big story is semiconductors. Big Cap Tech. Any way you cut it. And now hopefully other things joining. Better Day for Housing. Better Day for Housing related, though they've been weak.

So better day. That said, a few things I want to cover away from that for a second. And that is, you know how we'll come on here? just trying to protect capital for you. And we've whined and complained about the meme stocks and some of the fad stocks and some of the BS that goes on. Well, I'm going to bring up something for it.

Well, you know, the SPACs, the no sales, whatever. HubSpot. I'm just going to bring this up for you. It was down $69 today to $491. It was 656, five weeks ago, 693 in April. In case you don't know in early April, somebody put out the rumor that somebody was going to buy them out. And the stock went from 600 to 693 and then nothing. Drop back to 582.

In May, whoever was throwing the rumors out there did it again. And the stock went up to 656 from 581 in a day. it comes out today there was never ever even talks the rumor was Google was going to buy HubSpot

they're saying there was never even any due diligence so the stock got crushed and I'm just thinking to myself today are the regulators going to investigate who came out with this bull crap because let me be clear and concise about this

this was a cheater. Whoever floated this stuff was a cheater. Goose in the stock. Kind of like that guy roaring kitty with his game stock and chewy

cheetahs. And I bring this up because I remember many years ago, anybody remember Dan Dorfman? We're talking a while back. He used to come on that

channel, financial channel with the rumor of the day. The rumor of the day. And I always said, wait a minute, can't be true. Because anybody who has insight or information divulging it, that's illegal, even though they do it in Congress every day. I don't know if you remember that. All we're just saying to you, don't get caught up. That's all. Be careful. Be smart. There are so many pitchforks in the markets that will come and get you.

Whether it be what just happened with GameStop, 65 down to 25. And now where is that roaring kitty guy? or the valuation on the Trump stock. I have to do the disclaimer as usual. Nothing political there. Just talking valuation. It went from 79 to 29. The Trump stock.

Well, now the hub spot. There is no doubt my mind somebody nefarious was floating rumors to goose the stock. And I guess it finally came to a head. down $69 today, the $49.91. And just something I had to mention. Full and flair disclosure, you know how I also whine and complain about no sales biotechs. I've said to you on this show, we'll never buy a no sales biotech. And we hate the fact they even bring them public.

But we also disclose to your butt, just so you know, there's been. plenty that do go up in price and some really nicely and there's been some that have been bought out amazingly so well i have never heard of a company called morphic holding uh it's drugs for patients with autoimmunity fibrosis and vascular disorder at least that's what it says Eli Lilly just bought him out for $2.8 billion in cash. No sales. Stock closed at 31. It's now 56.

I don't own any. God bless you if you're dead. Full disclosure. Up next. More of this, that, and the other thing. Whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.

Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X. card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're

going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It becomes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. You know, I've never gone back, and I don't even know. So this MORF is being bought for $2.8 billion.

They have no sales right now. It's in development. Eli Lilly, $2.8 billion in cash, and of course they got tons of cash. I've never gone back on all these no-sale biotechs being bought, and there's been, I'm going to say, a couple of dozen in the last couple of decades. I've never gone back to see whether it was worth it or not. I probably should have done that. Never done that.

Oh, well, that would have probably been a good move. And leave no doubt these drug companies that are buying these companies out, they believe that, hey, we think whatever they're developing or close to coming to market are going to be great. I just don't have the grapefruits. and I've seen people go on TV and give out as a stock they like, a biotech with no sales. And I'm just like, how did they do that? I can't. It's just one of the rules that I came up with.

And as I've said to you, I've missed out on good moves on some of these no sales biotechs. But I just, I do not want to wake up one day. When news comes out with a placebo does better than the drug in Phase 2 trial, and it's down 50% overnight. And let me be clear, there's been a bazillion that are down. I remember there was one down 90% overnight. It was like a $10 stock opened at 90 cents the next morning. A no sales biotech. So just one of the rules that we follow.

And I think it's just because we have no courage. and I actually think that's smart. Now, a few things that are sticking out also. The big banks are acting very well. They don't move like tech, but for big banks, they're acting very well. They report Friday, Monday, and Tuesday. I won't buy in front of them, the earnings.

I'm really going to be interested in seeing what comes. There has been a story out that the Fed is loosening up their capital requirements. And maybe that's helped. I also want to imagine there is a better tone to some of the big regionals. A better tone to some of the big regionals. PNC Bank is it a new yearly high at the close today? Just letting you know as one. And that's what they call super regionals.

Truest, the old SunTrust, not there yet, but coming on. I'm interesting to see what comes of them. And a PNC reports, Tuesday. That's not bad news. When I'm born again, I want to come back as owning a bank. Great bookies. I still remember when I started in the business, I worked in the NCNB

building, excuse me, the Barnett Bank building, which was bought by NCNB, which was bought by I think there was like eight times over bought. And now the big banks are just freaking gargantuan. And by the way, it was never supposed to be this way. How much

they have under management or under their guise. And of course, it did not help what happened with the regional banks what was a couple of February's ago, but we're way past that. So that's good news. But back on the story, semis, tech, big tech, some other tech, and hopefully it's just one day. And boy, we've had plenty of good days in the small and midcaps that went absolutely nowhere.

Maybe this time it'll be better. don't know. Yields are down to 4.28% on the 10 year. That's certainly not going to hurt. The Fed, you know what we think. They don't count. If the Fed lowers rates a quarter point, it's not going to change the economy.

It's not going to change your job. It's not going to change your industry. But it could change the rest of the market. Maybe that's what these areas are waiting for, for them to play catch-up with real yields that are over a point lower than they are, a point lower than they are. We're all for it. Remember, we don't have a bias. We let the market dictate.

We don't predict. We have no clue. We know they give you out targets where the market's going to be at the end of the year. We pay no attention to that. No disrespect. We just don't pay attention to it. And I must tell you I'm getting better at drowning out everything, except the few that we tell you about on this show.

There are a select few we want to hear from whenever they yap, and they don't yap enough. Nothing political here, but if Soros ever talks to markets, I want to know. Stanley Drucken Miller, I want to know. Teper, I want to know. Paul Tudor Jones, I want to know. These are people that have proven themselves,

not 100% right all the time. In fact, Druck and Miller let go of a lot of his semis a couple of months ago. I don't know if he's bought back in, but guess what the semis have done. But I never argue with a guy that's made zillions. Stephen Cohen, who owns the Mets, I always want to hear what he has to say.

So we follow. But the rest, and again, nothing for nothing, we just drown them all out. And we big time drown them all out. I can tell you there are people on Twitter, X, that when, Nvidia was 300, Envidia was 400. I remember I was in Dubai.

they put out this report how NVIDIA was a scam, that their accounting was a scam. I'm not making this up. Didn't stop me from buying, breaking out of the six-month range of moving above 500. Do you know what they're out doing now? Well, NVIDIA is now 1,350 pre-split. Guess what? They're saying it's a scam.

Stock's got to go down. They don't disclose that. They've been saying it since 400. Catching my drift. So we really learn to just drown it. There are people on Twitter that have been calling a crash for two years. And they put out these great charts that really look like they make sense and how the market's going to crash. And then it does it.

and then they put it out again, but they don't tell you, they've been telling you it for two years. So what do we do? We're ignoring it all. We're drowning it out. And I must tell you, I'm better for it.

I have to think less. And in recognition, just follow the market. That's all. Just follow the market and drown them out.

That's all. And that goes for the cannabis. Boy, they've been talking up marijuana stocks forever. And every time somebody

legalize it, they pop up for a few days and then crash again amongst other things. So just letting you know what we're seeing, how we're thinking. I got an invitation to listen to Jamie Diamond and JP Morgan on what he thinks. I'm going to watch it. The guy who runs the biggest bank, I'm going to watch it, but grain of salt, let the market decide. Up next, news of the day, and then I'm on my way. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! Edge with Gary Culper. And walk once again to Investors Edge. Today, between $6 to $7 billion were added to our debt, but all they're talking about is Biden going to stay in. Let me give you a little bit of the lowdown that's going on. Well, first and foremost, which is, and nothing against them. George Clooney is out today saying Biden's got to go.

Michael Douglas, another celebrity, says, Biden's got to go. Rob Reiner, of my favorite show of all time, all in the family, says Biden's got to go. And they all say, we love you, Joe, but you got to go. Your record is fabulous, but you got to go. We say his record sucks. $2 trillion deficits per year and growing every year.

open borders, Afghanistan, too much silence on all the attacks on Jews across the country. I can name a bunch of other things, but that's besides the point. I just, you know, I guess celebrities matter. I guess they have influence. I mean, I'm just this little weenie on radio and little Fox News business contributor, and these people are movie stars, and I guess they have influence. So anyway, they were out there today, but I'm just letting you know most of the Democrats in D.C. want them out. They won't say it in public. Only a few have. But they want them out. I don't know if you know this. And as I've told you, and I'm not pulling any punches. I'm not a big believer in polls because look what happened with Hillary Clinton against Trump. And I can go through others. But I must tell you that there are certain things I do follow, and I also follow what I call the spread.

And I can tell you as of this second, if the election was today, Biden would win California. He'll win Massachusetts. He'll win New York. He'll win New Hampshire. A couple of other blue states out there. he'd lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. That means President Trump. And on top of that, and I believe I mentioned this yesterday, coat tails, coat tails.

You see, most people, what they will do is they will look, and if they vote Trump are, they'll go down and vote are in the House and the Senate. So a lot of Dems in the House and Senate are very, very worried. I applaud the president. I actually do. I'm not going anywhere. Screw you. I actually applaud that.

Because in case you do not know, he was the coattails in the midterm elections, that the Republicans were supposed to kick. but and did not. So I actually applaud him for at least and that's me that can't stand him as the President of the United States.

I think the next week it's going to be Fisher cut bait. If he lasts the next week, I don't think he's going anywhere. The biggest prom the Democrat Party has that if he decides to go, what do they do? They cannot go away from Kamala Harris because if they do,

they're going to lose a lot of the black vote and they can't win if they lose even more the black vote that they're already losing right now. So they are definitely in the web. They're in the web. I don't know how it comes out. even that misery Pelosi today was wavering and how she has powers beyond me. That said, six to seven billion was added to our debt today.

And there ain't nobody doing anything about it. And nobody seems to give a crap. And there will come a day. Six to seven billion they spent in our government more than they're supposed to today. divide that by 24 hours. How much an hour? It's a financial crime. And we're their victims.

We're their marks. And as I've always said to you, it just feels like they curse each other out in front of the camera and they're laughing their asses off behind the camera as they solidify their power with their spending. If I ran, I think both parties would kick me in the teeth because I'd be running on balanced budgets, which would cut their water off.

I'd like to think things are going to get better. I don't think there's a chance they're going to get better. If Trump wins, I hope he comes through. He came through with lower taxes, less regulations, but he also supersized government and the debt and the deficits. Before COVID, by the way, before, you send the email. If he does that, he got me.

In spite of the rest. And you know what I mean. That was D.C. today. Clooney and Michael Douglas. Yay. From New York City tomorrow. You have a good evening drive carefully. I'll be on with Stuart Varney.

10 a.m. hour Fox Business Network. Check that out. And again, have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise. Peace out. Stay well. Be well. Thanks for joining. Until tomorrow. Good night.

This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John Comfort perfected This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination Plus enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge Access Society. to change. See Capital One.com for details.