Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The calm before... [08.12.2024]

Episode Date: August 12, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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while supplies last, loyalty program subject to terms and conditions. Visit the pro desk or Lose.com slash terms for more details. Subject to change. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is August 12th. It's Monday. It's 2024. And we've got a few things we want to say to you today. We hope you're listening. we really do

and the reason we say this and I want to be careful with my words every now and then we are told oh you're the guys that go against the grain but that's not true we are the guys that we recognize when things are bearish when Wall Street's always bullish that is what that's all about

just so you know when the market topped and we said on July 11th we sold most of our tech, we're told, oh, we're going against the grain. No. Tell me when Wall Street's not bullish. So we're going to get into that in a second. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on a Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. I heard Donald Trump's back on Twitter today, right? I think so. We'll talk about that in a little bit also. And if you'd like to email me, just be nice. And in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.

It really is the most important show that is out there because we don't have a bias, we don't have a gender, we don't have a terri emotive, and we guide you through the markets on top of that. Actually, first and foremost, remember what you have to understand, them over there, no matter what, are going to say no matter what regardless. And them on the other side are going to say no matter what, regardless, they're on their little team. You know, we say to that. Anyway. So, the market got trashed into last Monday. Did you know that?

Into last Monday, the Dow would drop from 41,200 to the low of 385. Wow. 2,700 points in three days. And that was to the open on Monday in three days. The NASDAQ pretty much topped out weeks before July 11th at 18670 and hit a low of 16157. Wow. 2,900?

NASDAQ points. Is that right? Yeah, holy crap. I didn't even realize that until I just saw it. And that was from July 11th. So let's call that one, two, three weeks in a couple of days. And as you know, on July 11th, we were on here. We thought that that was a cell signal in technology and we sold most of our tech.

A few days later, we sold our Apple and Amazon, thankfully. and we pretty much for the most part missed this move down. We lost some money in gold, and of course it's right back up. We jinxed it. Lost a little money in the midcaps. Gave back some money in the spiders, but that's it. We didn't have individual stocks as the market got trashed. And by the way, pretty much owned the spiders all the way from November to the top.

But I don't want to talk about the past. I want to talk about right now. Because last Monday, we had something happened in the market that doesn't happen very often. And for those that have no clue what it is, I'm going to try to explain it as best as I can. After the drop, after a big drop in very short period of time, people were crapping in their pants. No, really. but how do we know that? Well, in the market, certain things show up.

There is something that we don't really talk about often here, except when it goes to extremes. It's something called the volatility index. It measures complacency versus, uh-oh. And on that Monday, last Monday, the volatility index, take the Eiffel Tower and put the Seattle Space Needle on top. of it and that's what it did indicating a holy crap moment and typically on an extreme day like that the market will put in a little low because that is what we call a washing out at that period of time anybody who wanted a cell got scared out at the most inopportune time and all

Often it'll mark the low, the low. But often, it just marks what we call a low, until the juices get flowing again, and the people start hopping on the markets because everything's a-okay. Only for the next shoe to drop. Well, we're not going to make any prediction here, but we're going to tell you what we see right now. And we're going to let you decide a little bit, and we'll nudge a little bit.

First and foremost, we have our own little channel checks. And what are those little channel checks? As we tell you, we'll visit stores. We'll visit restaurants. We'll speak to people with publics on pricing and what's selling, what's not. At the airports, we'll speak to people at TSA and get a feel for the numbers and the like. We do all these little channel checks, but we also have another check, and that is, how does everybody feel? How do they feel?

And the reason we look at that is because when everybody feels one way, the markets go in the other way. Why would that happen? because if everybody has sold, there's nobody left to sell, the market tends to bounce. Well, if everybody's bought and there's nobody left to buy, and we do little measurements of that. And what are some of the measurements? Well, we mentioned the volatility index. We watch what people are saying. We're watching what people are saying.

And when those things go to extremes, it's something we pay attention to. and who are these people? Well, pundits, industry-wide, the wrong way crowd, the wrong way crowd. Will you have a feel for the wrong way crowd? And we're just letting you know. And the best way I know how to explain this, the Japan market dropped 25% in a couple of days or three days

because they raised interest rates a whopping quarter point, and nobody thinks it's a big deal to us. We're a few days off of Monday, and we bounced up a little bit, but remember what we always tell you. Bounces are in the context of where things were. We're still way down from the highs from recent, not in big bear market except for the semis.

I don't see anybody giving a crap. In fact, pretty much all that I've seen is there's no big deal. Everything's fine. They don't even mention Japan dropped 25%. By the way, it's the third largest economy in the world. The third largest economy in the world dropped 25% in their market because they only raise rates a quarter point. And we're supposed to believe, but everything's okay. Our 10-year yield has gone from 4-9, almost 5 to 3-9.

We're getting all kinds of numbers and my channel checks that the economy's got some issues here, but everything's fine. We even got a job number that everybody said would be worrisome that is worrisome and where all I'm seeing is everybody's fine. this while the patterns in the market are not bullish and you'll have to believe me well you don't have to believe me but those that have listened to us through the years and our pattern recognition on the markets know

we've got a decent feel up next we'll continue along these lines and then the election a warning this is the one only investors edge Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, let's put the pieces of the puzzle together.

they didn't call the pullback they didn't call the correction they didn't know the semiconductors would drop 28% in three and a half weeks to the low on Monday of last week they've been telling you just keep buying and you know what they've been telling you to keep buying oh the big ones even though the big ones have been trashed just buy them don't worry about micron that it's gone from 157 it's 94 now just buy it's buy them. They don't tell you they told you to buy it at 157. Just buy them. Everything's fine. So we're just letting you know while we are measuring an unbelievable amount of complacency considering how much carnage there's been in the market from July 11th the top in the NASDAQ and the semis, and from about, we'll call it July 16th in the S&P, our channel checks are, everybody's cool. We're going to have an end-of-the-year rally. Our targets 5,900 on the S&P by the end of the year. That's only 11, 12% in a matter of months. That's all I'm hearing. while the patterns in the market are saying otherwise.

And let's assume we're pretty good at reading patterns. Now we all know there are extenuating thing of a bobs that are out there. Oh, we have a central bank. I can promise you, if Jay Powell tomorrow announced that he is going to be printing money like he has the past, I think the market gap up a bunch

and that would obviously change the playing field. If Joe Biden tomorrow announced a big tax cut, that would jolt the market. Well, Joe Biden's hanging on the beach and taking naps. That ain't happening. So I'm just letting you know we're open to all outcomes. We believe markets are flexible. We believe they're malleable.

We believe they're like Gumby. We're just letting you know in real time, just real time, everything we have seen. Everything's fine. Don't worry. It's all good. Don't worry that they've trashed a bunch of financials. It's all good. Don't worry that they've trashed the semiconductors, the most important group in the market.

It's all good. Don't worry that most stocks now are trading below resistance. that used to be support, it's all good. And let me repeat, we're open to higher prices. We'll let the market decide. We're letting you know at the close today. It's not about having doubts. We're just big believers.

We would love the market to prove itself. You've got to show me evidence. CSI. That's what we do here. And as we have told you, you know, there are stocks that are sticking up, sticking out. We're always looking for when the market's weak, where's the strength? And we have highlighted some names for you. We have told you straight out, we haven't bought them.

We haven't bought them. But they're certainly on our watch list. We've also highlighted for you, man, there's been a bunch of good earnings reactions. And they're on our watch list. Why do we always follow good earnings reactions? because usually something good's going on. So the Dow finished down 140, and one of those days we're kind of sort of all over the map today.

It was hot early, if I can find it on my screen. The Dow was at 39, 587, so it was up like 140, finished down 140. The NASDAQ today, I'm not making this up. It was up 150, then flat. Then up 100 and flat. It was never really down at all today. And of course, in the last like 30 seconds,

and by the way, we're not making this up. The whole NASDAQ that's up 35 today was like the last 45 seconds. It was back to flat. Doesn't mean much. NASDAQ 100 up 28, transports down 82, and they've been dead. small and mid caps were down advanced declines 15 to 20 16 to 25 on the NASDAQ with the NASDAQ up what does that mean and uh on the New York 1624 oil prices were strong today I gather this is the what's going on Middle East all the worry that's going on there crypto was down and pretty much a non-event right now on the back burner range bound but when I look at the major indices you know what they're doing right now. Go get out your watch.

After a big, ugly three-day drop, they're doing the old, let's call it 7 up to 1. 7 p.m. up to 1 a.m. Not sure that's the greatest look, but we'll give it its opportunity as we move forward. Earnings this week, not a lot. Home Depot and Walmart and the Dow.

two important retailers anything else sticking out applied material oh Cisco in the Dow but that's dead money applied materials very important semiconductor deer the weak sister of Caterpillar

can we say sister these days you don't even know what you can say these days without people getting pissed and we'll see what comes of it we just want to stay at the outset today nobody seems to care that we had this meltdown or why? And it's just, it happened and it's gone. Nobody thinks it's a shot

across the bow. Well, we're going to keep an open mind. And we hope last Monday turns out to be the low. That's what we hope. Gold strong today. We made good money in gold early in the year. Last trade we lost a little bit and sold it right at the wrong time. It's not that it's moved a lot, but we're P-Oed about it. And we can always get back on board if it really gets out of here. And gold miners that were laboring had a pretty good day also. China had a good day for a change. Up next, what else we got? I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is Now, Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

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America is talking Investors edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here With Gary Coltbaum Comes highly recommended You're going to feel better if you talk to him Okay

So I just want to make sure you understand Where I'm coming from again The market's just got plastered And Wall Street's telling you Don't worry about it It's just a one-off Japan dropped 25% in three days Because they

Dared to raise rates a little quarter of a point By the way telling you how rigged they have rigged their market I've been telling you that for years That's just my thought Notwithstanding There's just not a lot of leadership in the market Not a lot of strength If that shows up we'll let you know

but we just wanted to point that out and hopefully better days ahead. Roaring Kitty, remember the GameStop? I just want to bring it up today. Do you know why? Oh, nobody's talking about it anymore. Why is that? Oh, the stock's back to dead. Did you get caught in it or did you listen to us? We want you to remember this guy is not Robin Hood. He doesn't care about you.

He was acting on his own for himself. I would say it to his face. He's a selfish jackass that try to take advantage of the peeps. And I'm pretty sure I read somewhere he owns GameStop at 23 or 24. Now it's down to under 22, was under 20 recently. And then that other stock, Chewy, hit 39 bucks. It's back to 23 and change. GameStop hit a high of 65, it's 20.

under 22. And again, I don't know the guy, nothing personal, purely business. He's a jackass. And there's no doubt in my mind. He was just taking advantage. But the ability for him to take advantage of the peeps just tells you the peeps. No discipline whatsoever. No discipline. Yeah, let's buy GameStop at 60, even though it was 20 yesterday, it hopes it goes to 100. I just wanted to bring that up today because I just noticed it. Warren Buffett, in the tidbits moment, I just want to let you know, and I don't know if it means anything or not. You know about him selling half of his Apple? By the way, you know what they're telling us?

Don't worry about that. It's not meaningful. So here's the greatest investor, arguably and not arguably of all time, that's sort of, sold half his position in Apple, shouldn't worry about it. Okay. What should we worry about? By the way, Apple, I just think he's selling a lot of it because it just got too much of his portfolio. But when you add in that Warren Buffett's sitting on $277 billion of cash in treasuries, who loves investing that money, based on the market. Don't worry.

Now, I don't know if Warren Buffett's a market timer, but I know in the past, when valuations got into the trees, he's been pretty damn good about having a lot of cash around, besides all the companies he owns. And by the way, Burlington Northern, seize candies, big positions in Coke and others. So I just wanted to bring that up because, Because don't worry. I read a bunch of that. Don't worry. A crypto. I just want to bring it up, something I saw. And the headline was, a crypto trader turns nearly $1 million into $18,000 in four hours. I just want to let you know.

he bought 900,000 worth of something called Solana in something a player versus player game I don't know even what the hell that means four hours later it crashed and he was left with 18,000 yet we're told gotta have crypto for the future

gotta happen I saw somebody on TV the other day this young lady big smile on her face you just got to buy it every day the Bitcoin and I'm thinking to myself the last bare market Bitcoin drops 74%

it just I guess you can call today's show a little bit of word to the wise I'm just letting you know and of course they keep interviewing Kathy Wood and we take on nobody in our industry except her and that's only because we get hundreds of emails on her and we have to answer it with the fact that why are you asking me about somebody that's down 70% over three years well because what imagine if I started the show today I just want to let you know this is Gary

call upon with the investor's edge. I'm down 74% in the last three years. Keep listening to me. Think about that. Anyway, she's still calling for $1.5 million on Bitcoin by 2030. It closed like it under $60,000. I just want to make sure you know all this as we move forward. just like we warned you ages ago on Rivian and Lucid. These are electric vehicle companies. Lucid stock is gone from a high in 21 of $64.86 to $2.90. I just want to report to you that every time they sell a car, they're losing $328,000 as a company. that's not a typo do I need to repeat it these are the things we've been harping on for years

about quality earnings sales evidence strength you know what happened with Rivian one of the major calls we made here and I really haven't followed Lucid that much but I read a story. By the way, they do sales last four quarters, 137 million, 157 million, 172 million, 200 million. So sales have been going up, but they lose $328,000 every car sold. And that basically fits in with Ford, which now says they're expected to lose $5 billion on its electric vehicle business this year alone. They lose only $44,000 on every electric vehicle they produce. Why did we warn you?

Because of the channel checks that we do, and we don't have a thousand analysts. I call myself Mr. Logic because it's very logical to figure out that demand for the cars were way way way overhyped and forced upon by a bunch of jackasses in government that think they know better than you and what's best for you so we just want to bring that up today that stuck out for me which also means I want to bring up to you they tell us not to worry about the consumer but now carries $6,329 in credit card debt the average consumer. But don't worry. And of course, remember what we have told you about debt throughout the years. That's what causes problems.

Our call on the housing market back in 2007 was because of debt and leverage. It wasn't too hard to figure out. We didn't know it implode at the time. But these are the things we just and we know we got this negative bet today, but I had to because the market just got trashed and Wall Street's like, everything's cool. Okay, I hope they're right. Up next, the election and the big scam. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect. fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing

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You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. Okay.

So as you know, we are no fan of either candidate. Sorry. It's just our opinion. We respect yours. And of course, it's a binary choice. But I want to start out today with a warning. And we did it last week and we'll keep doing it as we head into the election. Because there's a great con job going on right now, a great scam.

and that is the national mainstream media. They are very good at getting together and colluding to send the same message right at your face. They don't care about you. They don't care about the truth. They don't care about the facts. By the way, we're not talking opinion people. You do know there's opinion people on the right.

There's opinion people on the left. We're not talking about them. We're talking about the straight news, lying sacks of crap anchors. And what do we mean? And this is not about Trump because they're after him 24-7. I don't have to do anything on that. Kamala Harris.

You wouldn't know it by watching the national media right now that she's been the vice president for three plus years while millions of people let through the border. and she was named the Borders are. Do you know ABC, what are their head guys on video? Over the last three years, on video saying Kamala Harris is the Borders are,

named the Borders are, leading the Biden administration on the border. And now on video saying, she was never named the Borders are. even though you could do side-by-side video that's on Twitter, which gets to you the point that they just don't give a crap what they look like. They just don't care. They just don't care.

Last week, Trump came out. He said he wants to wipe out paying taxes if you're like a waiter or a waitress. The media came out. CBS, it's going to cost the government. $250 billion if Trump gets away with this giveaway. Kamala Harris yesterday, amazingly, came out and said, and we're going to wipe out the taxes for waiters and waitresses and service employees. You know what the media is saying today?

What a great idea. They don't care that in just a week's time because of who they, the candidate was, they changed their stance. Time magazine, the only thing they don't have of Kamala Harris on the front cover is a halo. Yet they have a picture of Trump as his face. Remember the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark? At the end, where their faces went to nothing when they opened the arc? You know what the biggest story in presidential politics of the last 20 years is, the fact that it is now known that they threatened Joe Biden that if he didn't stand down, they were hitting him with the Article 25. That's where the cabinet gets together

and kicks your ass out. What an unbelievable story for the media to do journalism and do interviews on what happened and why and why would you do this do you know why the media doesn't jump all over it because they don't want trump to win and they knew there's a better chance with biden out politics so we're just letting you know trump's the antichrist Kamala Harris is Mother Teresa. The last three and a half years of the Harris Biden administration, she wasn't there. She had nothing to do with $2 trillion debt, nothing to do with Afghanistan, even though she's on video saying, I was in the room.

Donald Trump, Hitler, Mussolini, Pol Pot, all put together. The media. They're doing it to Israel. This morning, the NBC Today Show is saying, Israel, Israel, look what they did. That Iran is retaliating for what Israel did. That's what they actually said today. These miseries, there's still 120 hostages.

Hamas reported the deaths. Imagine murderers and terrorists and rapists are coming up with numbers and you're reporting their numbers. So we're just letting you know into the election. That's what's going on. Do your own homework because they don't care. And just so you know, they did it to Bush and Bush. They did it to Romney.

They did it to Palin. They did it to Bob Dole. They did it to Reagan. The difference is, Trump gives it back. Let me repeat. We have no use for the guy either. But this is what's going on.

There's no accountability. There's no oversight. They don't care. Do some work. Do some homework. Be smart. If you want to vote for her, God bless you. If you want to vote for him, God bless you.

We're screwed no matter who's in there. The $35 trillion of debts going to $56 trillion, according to the CBO, which means 70. Just work hard. Be great. Stay in good health. We'll keep you up to date on the markets. But as we said, everything's great.

Have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family big time. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise. We'll be on with Liz Clayman tomorrow 3 p.m. Hour, Fox Business, don't miss that, and same time here for the radio. Peace out, All, Serenity now. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.