Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - the chess board moves [06.24.2024]

Episode Date: June 24, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom. I'm your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's June 24th, 2024. It is Monday. Hope you had a good weekend. Hope you're having a good day. As always, we have a lot to cover. Some days more than others.

Today, much more. Not just in the markets, but the world as we head into the debate this coming Thursday. And by the way, the rules on this debate are the stupidest, most moronic rules I have ever seen. No crowd, no people there? Your mic is shut off when somebody else is. Speaking? What? Oh, you can't interrupt. Just insane. But whatever. First off, if you do not get this radio show in New City, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you email me, just be nice. All you got to do is be nice. And in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that matters to you with a little comedy injected, but there's really no comedy these days. We talk markets. The economy, the presidential election. What happened in Los Angeles yesterday, amongst other things. We're going to do markets first. Lots to cover. Everything else, a little bit later.

So we've described for you, listen carefully, how markets really work. I know they talk about the retail investor and who's buying 100 or 200 shares and not to belittle them, but what really drives the markets or the big institutions, the big mutual funds, the big hedge funds, the insurance companies, and the like. They are the driving force. They are the volume in the market. And just so you know, they're human beings. I know they have this thing out there. When the market goes down, it's the algos, the algorithms. But when the market goes up, it's a real buying. That's all a bunch of bull crap. I just want to let you know. When the market goes down, it's selling.

When the market goes up, it's buying. Yes, there are buttons that get pushed here or there, but don't believe all that crap that when the market goes down, it's that. How things work in the markets. These big institutions in the morning will have their meetings. They'll have their portfolio managers sit around a table and discuss what they own, where they own it, how they are doing. And what happens is, since they're human beings, they're watching the markets.

What's going on? What is occurring? And it's in their moves that we watch, their volume, and things like that. We gave this example a few weeks ago. We did this little five-minute thing for you that the reason why a stock will become so strong, stronger than normal, an outlier event, is because these institutions will be looking at what they have and they'll actually ask the question to each other or an executive may ask the question, why don't you own so-and-so? Look what this stock is done. Look what this sector is done. How do we not have? And what happens at that point? Well, the Greed and fear picks up, and let's get some of that, and it feeds on itself. That's how it works.

And then there's the other way around. Oh, this thing is getting trashed. How many shares do we have? Why do we have that many shares? And so forth. Simple as that. It's what you do with your own accounts also. Why do I? Why don't I? Should I? And it's all going to be based on fear and greed. That's really how it works. And every now and then it goes to extremes. And what we mean by extremes, well, let's go back to 08. The financial system looks like it was going to go to pot. I told you, I went to the bank and took out 25,000 bucks in cash because I was worried about the banks.

And of course, a bunch of banks went out of business. And then there's the other side, the GameStop. And not just GameStop, what just happened recently, but when GameStop had its original move, those are extremes. And of course, then there's the in-betweens. And then, of course, it's the type of stocks. What do we mean by that? Well, I can guarantee you the portfolio managers that have a decent amount of

procter and gamble. are not checking out what the stock is doing every 30 minutes, because it's what is known as a lower beta stock, which means it does not move as much as the market, in fact, a lot less than the normal market. But if they owned one of the higher beta names, you know which ones they are, little horse of a different color,

which leads us into last Thursday. because on last Thursday we sold our semiconductor proxy, our NASDAQ 100 proxy, half of our our Nvidia. And why we did that is because what we try to do here, and we're not perfect, not even close, but what we try to do is take from the market its characteristics. And on Thursday, we had what we thought was a March 8th moment. And if you remember March 8th, that was that huge, yucky reversal on the semiconductors. So we lopped them off.

And it turns out that's the case. And guess what happens now? Those same people that were so confident, and for good reason, nothing can go wrong. All of a sudden worry because of fear and greed. So now fear picks up. Whoa, NVIDE has gone from 139 to 118 in three days. What happened?

Well, it's because it went from 104 to 139 in a matter of weeks. Thus, we sold off half. when we thought that characteristic showed up Thursday, which we sold off all. The good news is we're still way ahead, and the good news is, you know, we bought a bunch in January at 50, which was 500 with the pre-split. So we're letting you know the pieces on the chessboard are really moving a lot right now. the extreme moves in the big tech, especially the semi-slash-a-I, the big moves are getting a little bit of unwinding. Now, does that mean Nvidia doesn't go to 300 in a year from where it closed today?

No, we're telling you from now. In fact, when Nvidia topped out, it was $97. And it went through a process of a, I don't know, 12, 14, 16 weeks, turned around, gaped up and was on its way again. Now, some comeuppance. So without a doubt, I'm going to give you out two numbers and you'll get a good understanding. 260. The Dow was up 260 today.

226. The NASDAQ 100 was down 226. 192. The NASDAQ was down 192. You ready for this? 260, the Dow? 16 and change. That's the S&P down today. How is that possible? Well, as we say to you, the S&P is laden with a lot of tech. So definitive, what started Thursday, icky Friday today, yeah, they kind of stuck it in the teeth. Was there news? I didn't see any. Was there a reason?

I don't know. The thought process had a big move in getting the give back. To what extent we don't know? How long we don't know? how far we don't know. All we know is on Thursday it gave that look that it did not as bad by the way as March 8th.

And we'll see where it takes us. That's the story. And as I look at my screens today, strengthen oil stocks, playing catch up with oil prices, strengthen transports, though they were better early in the day. And of course, these have been weak areas.

Strengthen financials. The stuff up next will continue along these lines. Much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to invest.

Investor's Edge. So today, Goldman and J.P. Morgan and Bank American, BlackRock. Nice. Lamb Research down 26. Monolithic Power down 28. Super Micro down 78. Broadcom down 61. Didn't that just gap up? NVIDIA down 8. ASML Holdings down 35. KLA 10 Corps down 23. Sox down 167 and so on and so forth. My stuff screen, mostly green, except for one column, the semis, and some restaurants. And they got other growth names also today. That's the story. And we repeat how long it lasts, how far it goes, we don't know. But we'll measure fear and greed and greed.

and fair and see how it goes. We did luck out today because we have Facebook and it was up and Apple it was up, though Apple got, I mean, Options Expiration Friday was very weird. But it's just we're getting this little changing of the guard right now, whether it turns into a big changing of the guard, I don't know. Now I do read a lot and there are some smart people that think the valuations of all these areas I'm mentioning that are getting a bid the last couple of days, the Dow types are very cheap in comparison to tech.

Well, that is correct. That's a gimmy. But guess who has the growth? The tech, of course. And now we'll get to see what comes of it. What I did already today is I scanned and I do it without any bias. And what I look for is launching pads. what looks like it can launch from here, set up to move out of range.

We mentioned to your Walmart recently in the Dow up a little more today. Honeywell in the Dow up a little more today. Strong as financial, Goldman Sachs, had a good day. Amgen may be setting up. But mind you, a lot of these companies are Amgen's earnings down 1%. But we're just letting you know where the money is flowing. and it started Thursday with the reversal off the get-go, and it went into today, and got a little more vicious today.

That's the story. No news. Nothing earth-shaking. In fact, one could say over the weekend, boy, there was some good news on the AI and the semiconductors. The big institutions are doing some selling right now. they've decided and we got too much and that's how it works and our job is to measure and we haven't been perfect but damn ourselves on Thursday quite depression and we're very careful about telling

you what we do as you know because we know somebody that listens on Monday may not be listening on Tuesday. But in inflection points, we will yap up a little bit. Now it's end of quarter this week. And we already got a good question from somebody. Gary, I thought end of quarter

means they mark up the stuff that's been working. Good question. The answer, we just pay attention to the real time in the market. And

right now it is the Dow types that have the bid and the money is flowing out of those areas that were being yelled about, being screamed about, being shouted about, and therein lies the story. Other things I want to cover on the questions we get, we get so many questions on gold. And I get it. All we can tell you is gold broke out in February, had a big run into the high in April, and now range bound.

If you look at the GLD, if it breaks below 210, it's party. If it stays between 210 and 225, range bound after a good move. The first step it would have to do to go higher needs to get above 220 before it attacks 225. Now the high almost 226. So just let you know. And we get emails from people because we know it's out there.

We see the commercials. God own gold. God own silver. And you put the celebrities out there. I own gold through this company. I own silver through this company. Okay. Terrific.

We'll throw a party. And we get it. Next, I got to bring up crypto. So just letting you know. And again, I will tell you that about four days. days ago, I'm on Twitter, which is now X, and somebody was asking me, and I said it looks like the crypto is topping out for now. And I had some jackass that doesn't have a name. You know, they have these little monikers, and I forgot what the moniker was. Pretty much cursed me out for

saying it looks like it's topped out for now. That's all I said. Just letting you know, it confirmed the topping out today. The Bitcoin dropped, I think, six, six, 7% and broke below some support areas. If it breaks below, I'm going to give you a date May 1st. If it breaks below that level, then we'll be talking about an intermediate term correction. That's not just what it's doing right now, and that is a top of a little bit of consequence, off the highs. And we're mentioning this because we just get a lot of emails on the crypto. and I know you got somebody out there that's down 70% over the last three and a half years telling us that Bitcoin,

I think she raised her target to $1.8 million, I believe, or was it $1.5, $1.6, whatever. Well, it just dropped $12,000 down to, I don't know, what are we under $60,000. So I'm going to need some help. And the same person is now calling for Tesla to go to $2,600. or 2,800. What we told our peeps this weekend, in order for Tesla to go to 2,600 or 2,800, well, it first has to go through 190,

that's first resistance, then it has to go through 199 second resistance, then it's got to go through 206 third resistance. You get my point? We don't have to make predictions. There's a guy out there right now calling for another crash. I'm not going to name names, but he's one of the guys that.

writes books that's either things are roaring or things are crashing no in between because if he said markets imagine if he put out a book market's going to be range bound he'll never sell a book so he has to make up these stories about crashes and roarings and the shame of it is he goes out there and market how right he's been when he's not up next we'll finish that up and then lots more This is one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

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This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbub. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, again, without mentioning names, just be careful.

We told you, the 87 crash. I was in Albuquerque, New Mexico. I went to the bookstore and got the book, The Great Depression of the 1990s by a guy named Ravi Batra. And never happened. And I've seen the books. about the roaring 2000s, and we had the worst bare market in history from 2000 to 03. And I can go on and on and on about these people who tell you how right they are.

Do your homework. You got that? You know, it's okay to be wrong. We're wrong. It's okay. But when you come out with predictions of doom or, oh my goodness gracious, this. We just don't buy it. We'll let the market decide. I can promise you if the market decides to crumble, there are a few things that have to happen. Number one, the indices have to have the 50-day moving average taken out. The indices have to have the price underneath the 50-day not get back above. And then the stairs. steps have to start going the wrong way. Now we can safely tell you, and as we've stated to you,

there are areas that are very weak. They all bounce today. Whether or not they stay bouncing, I don't know. But I can tell you, you're never going to have a big crash if Goldman Sachs is acting well. I can tell you that safely. Why do we know that? Because we've studied every bull and bear market. So we just want you to be careful about all that noise. the market will decide and right now the market's deciding the stuff that was working yonk the stuff that's been dead raised from the dead and now we'll see i can tell you insurance stocks i know boring but look poised oils as i said playing catch-up and i've been wondering because oil prices for the last i don't know two and a half weeks have done

nothing but go higher. And oil stocks have been, blah, played a little catch-up today. In fact, there's a couple of oils at New Yearly highs. Whether or not that lasts, I do not know. Back on the transports, they were up today. But we'll see. Not so sure. But that's the big story. Changing of the Guard this second. Have no clue what happens tomorrow. Tomorrow. Tomorrow. as another day. But when all was said and done today, and I'll tell you what also happened at the end of today, they were trying to do better on these things. And then late in the day, they knocked out, let's see, 17-5-9, they knocked the NASDAQ down 100 points in the last 40 minutes after trying to do better. And they were knocking down the semiconductors also in the last 5, 10, 15, 25 minutes,

after trying. And we mean by trying intraday. Hey, a stock's down 25. Oh, we're only down 16 now. Oh, now we're down 25 at the close. Again, the institutions, moving the chess pieces. And no, I know you hear, there is no big concerted effort. There's no big collusion and all these big money getting together.

Let's do this, let's do that. I can promise you all of them act in their own self-interest. That's what free markets are about, and that's why I hate Jay Powell so much. I loathe the man, nothing personal, but business-wise, complete hate. Playing God with the markets. That's why I'm so happy with him right now for doing nothing, even though I know he's chomping at the bid. And that's a little bit of today. Yields were basically flat.

gold was up a little bit, oil prices up a stick, and again, that's to be watched closely, and the broad market better, the AI tech and all that crap, got smacked around a little bit, more than a little bit. And as I repeat, tomorrow's another day in the news. Well, we got this debate Thursday, and we warned you, and we don't make this stuff up, We warned you that going into the rest of the year, you are going to be lied to by the national media to try and protect Joe Biden. And how do we know this? Because this is what they do. And we know.

And they pretend that they know we know, but they don't care. So we just want to let you know Axios, who's now a very much guilty party, comes out with an article titled, Trump ran up national debt twice as much as Biden. A new analysis by somebody. Haven't I been reporting to you that Joe Biden now has broken all track records on debt and yearly debt? Two trillion plus this year. Haven't I told you that? And hasn't that been reported by the CBO?

So how is it possible that Axios can say what they said? Oh, I don't know. But they do. And they're all very good. And Trump sucked on the debt. He was no good. And of course, he also said, oh, the art of the deal and I'm going to cut the debt and the deficits. And he just went in and spent.

Axios does say, hey, but Biden deficits have also swelled. whatever kiss mine that's what i have to say to all this reporting it's pretty much almost nauseing it's almost nauseating that they can actually write a report about trump over four years when Biden is just running us into the ground where the CBO just came out and this is because of Biden and his trajectory 56 trillion of debt in 10 years we know that's going to to be 70. By the way, this came out from a committee for a responsible federal budget. Yeah, they obviously have a lot of pull. A lot of people listening to them, right? It was the same thing Axios did a couple of weeks ago when they said,

the Trump inflation. What? They say Trump's policies will cause massive inflation. shouldn't the headline be Biden's policies have caused massive inflation? No. So just letting you know. And this is for both you on the left and right. Just get your facts right. And know who's reporting because

the Today Show this morning spent five seconds on a bunch of terrorists blocking and threatening Jews at their synagogue in L.A. today. They spent five seconds on it and they claimed it was between the pro-Israel and the pro-Palestine. They did not say Israel, the Jews would just go into synagogue and they were attacked, some beaten up. But the today show, they can't tell the truth. They can't. Because nothing bad happens under their guy, the Today Show.

And of course, the media is not reporting it or spending seconds. The media is glossing over some of these illegals coming in and murdering young women and raping them or not reporting it. Just expect a hell of a lot more of sweeping under the rug into the election. We're not. We're going to talk about what matters. We're going to talk policy, and we are going to have no bias against any of them or for any of them. We've gotten more, I wouldn't call it nasty emails, but more emails, why do you keep attacking Trump than Biden? We don't attack.

We report. Nobody can debate what we report because they're facts. Up next, what else going on out there? I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

And their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there. more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture

X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds like, familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Six to seven billion dollars was added to our debt today, but don't worry. It's all good. By the way, the big news of the day, this is the headline, and by the way, this is a man who spent $14,000 to become a collie changes his mind after realizing it's very difficult to walk like a dog. No, this is real. Just let you know.

I just had to bring that up. No, really. That's a headline. Here's another headline. A Samp, we've pulled no punches on California. And the reason we pull no punches, is on California because as we say to you, you got to call out people that disrespect the citizens and are only in power because they're lucky enough to be in power as they disrespect and use

their citizens. So as you know, we've been hitting up on Newsom, taxes, regulation, I mean, you name it. I'm just a horror show, crime, homeless. The list goes on. on. Of course, Sam Fran, not one journalist will dare ask Nancy Pelosi what's going on with our district. Why would they do that? Well, we warned you if they did this $20 minimum wage for fast food workers who a lot of them are in high school. Well, if you add that up, add it up. If you work 40 hours, you're making $40,000 a year as a minimum wage. I know the industry.

I also know how these business owners think. They are entrepreneurs. They are accountable to their business and their families. They are people that risk their capital. What a concept? I risked my capital. I risk failure. Or I may have failed once or twice and finally hit. And we simply told you if they mandate higher costs without any productivity gains, there will be repercussions. And we told you most likely the repercussions are fewer hours, fewer employees. Little did we know how many restaurants and franchises in California are already shutting. A San Francisco McDonald's shuts after 30 years. And the owner, the franchisee came out and said,

no uncertain terms. Can't handle it. Can't make money. Go out of business. It was the most expensive restaurant, expensive location to operate, and the new wage hike was too much. And these are people, just so you know, these franchisees and these owners pleaded with California. Pleaded with them. And they didn't care.

They didn't care. because socialist slash Marxists need control and they think the more people they can dole things out to on their mandates the better will be for them.

Nope. There's a McDonald's. This is on top of the inflation. Which was the Putin price hike, of course. Taco chain Rubio's Coastal Grill. Shut a dozen locations. Foster's freeze. shuttered locations.

And of course, the raising of prices. We're going to keep reporting this stuff. We're going to keep reporting. As we have said to you here in Florida, no place is ever perfect. Ain't nobody crapping all over people at colleges here. People try to shoplift here. Oh, they're going to pay the penalty.

Over other places, they're not. And here is the worry. We need somebody at the top that cares about this stuff. Joe Biden hasn't uttered a word about it. You know what he said today about what happened in L.A. yesterday? Don't do that. And all I'm thinking to myself, if there was a bunch of racists that were at a mosque and stopping Muslims from getting in and cursing them out and telling them they should die,

what do you think would happen today in the media? You think the today's show would be pissed? Are you damn straight? This is what I'm talking about. Total selectivity. And it's got to stop. All racism has got to be kicked in the nuts. Equally.

And it's not. And I don't know if you know this, but the DA who put Trump on trial in New York not one person at Columbia is going to be indicted. They let them all off. Even though there are videos of people and students threatening others' lives and holding them in the corner from moving around. By the way, that's illegal.

And I'm just thinking to myself, somebody's going to die. They're going to beat the crap out of a Jewish person on a street. They're going to hit their head and die. Are they going to do something then? So just letting you know, I know we're markets and then this, but this matters. In the long run, we're supposed to be level headed. We the people. Our leaders are supposed to be for all.

And leave no doubt. They're picking and choosing. You have a great evening drive carefully. We'll see what happens tomorrow with the market because, ooh, The chess pieces today. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Serenity now, all. We'll keep reporting. No bias. Peace out. Good night.

This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with CodeCompert. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.