Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Con Revealed!

Episode Date: June 5, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Monday, June 5th, early I thought it was July 5th, 2000, 23. Actually, I wrote to my peeps that I thought J.P. Morgan paid a dividend. dividend today, June 5th, no, it's July 5th. Well done, Gary.

And thanks for joining us. This is serious talk about you and everything that affects you. The market, your money, the economy, jobs, your job, and everything else under the sun. We do it seriously. Every now and then we'll throw some comedy and sarcasm in there. But I must tell you, there's not much, only sarcasm these days, ladies and gentlemen. But we start out each and every day right now with the one minute Gary's travails of his back. So just letting you know, we're up to almost 700 emails from each and every, not each and every, but from all you all, with your, how many of you have bad backs out there?

Everyone? Anyway, got a lot of information, got some doctors emailing me, but the doctors have to be careful about what they say. very simply got the MRI back and here is on the lower left side. Well, as you age, just so you know, as you age, everything degenerative. But on my left lower side, I've always had some issues from my tennis days. And only really bad twice. This one's the worst of all. And basically what they can see on an MRI is how the,

area of the disc and whatever has not lost hydration. So it touches a nerve and shoots the pain. I will tell you when I stand, I'm fine. When I walk, I'm fine. When I lay down pretty much okay. When I sit and I move around, you feel the pinch. When I get up, holy crap. That's the story.

compression of it. And last night, I was almost in tears. That's how bad it was. And if it would have lasted more than a minute, I would have been crying. That's how bad it was. But fortunately, it goes away. You know, again, I met with some brainiacs on this. And basically all they're saying right now at this Juncture. Management. Management, more management. I've been getting a lot about chiropractic inversion tables and things like that. We'll try everything here. But we're on the steroids, extra strength, Tylenol, a muscle relaxer. And again, it's only getting up from sitting. It's the weirdest thing I've ever seen. And I have a newfound respect for your back pain out there. That's all I can tell you. And hopefully, in a week or so, it dissipates. They say as the inflammation goes, because as he

saw in the MRI, it didn't look like the end of the world. I'm waiting for her tell me, oh, you see over here, but it was mostly, this is what you got. Anyway, that is Gary's back travails. I am standing up right now. I will tell you I got a stand-up desk and a big chair and doing everything I can possibly, but I'll tell you what else I'm doing. The amazing part about this is I'm in shape. I'm in good shape. I work out. I lift weights, smartly. I am going on my old stretching routine. I've never been limber in college. I have to stretch an hour before an hour after when I play tennis. I'm going to start that again around the hips and lower back once this thing ends.

And I'm redoubling my, I'm in shape. I'm getting ten times more in shape after this is over and done. That's all I can tell you. And my recommendation for each and every one of you, do the same. You know, I was at this place. And there are men much younger than me hunched over walking. because you can see this just so out of shape. Stay in shape, kids.

And by the way, it doesn't take a lot. Stop eating the crap and get your butt out and walk around and stop sitting on you. You know what. Seriously. All right. That's the one minute Gary's travail that lasted about three minutes. Last week, Great Friday in the market. On Wednesday, we had said to you, and on Thursday, we had this inkling, we thought maybe we can get the broad market better.

Today, the broad market, not so good. That said, not so bad. We'll explain everything, and then close our eyes, hold our nose and pray. Which we've tried does not work. But we'll have each and everything we need to talk about today. We thank you for joining us. Hope you had a good weekend. I was supposed to be in New York right now, but, you know.

I'm happy to be home. All right. And a little bit later, we're going to take one minute. I finally decided to watch President Biden's... How do I put this? He did a speech after they signed the debt ceiling. And I posted on Twitter my thoughts on it. it. I'm going to give it short shrift because that's all it deserves. And all I can tell you,

nausea. Today's market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It was proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-models.com. Dowdown 199. But it's one of those days where the Dow wasn't as bad, not even close. Dow was much worse than everything else, which is good. S&P was only down 8, NASDAQ only down 11, NASDAQ 100, up 9. But again, remember what we told you last week, the worst areas of the market had a wake-up call. But that doesn't mean major trend change.

the S&P broke above range, that's an index. But as you look at area after area, there's work to be done. And what you'll get is backing and filling, backing and filling, and I will tell you this. We will know this fails if the S&P breaks back below 4,200 and worse, 4,100. Simple as that. That's how close you are when things are tight and when you have range-bound type action. Leadership remains in software, tech, big cap, not small, though some have come on. And I'm even going to small little downgrade.

I'm not even going to call it downgrade. Semiconductors are more in pullback mode right now. But that's only because you had some go from, I mean, holy crap, from the the ground into the highs of a redwood tree. And of course, that's not going to last. So you got some of that going on. But again, the story is, as far as the leadership, it pretty much is. And we mean leadership.

What leads? The mega cap tech, software, and some other around that tech. That's the leadership. Other things coming on. Housing. Look like it was getting in trouble. Better again, probably need some work here also. New highs, still not a lot, haven't gone through them yet.

And as we look at the Dow, and this is of import, there's only 30 names. As we said to you last week, a couple of them look like they turn the corner. When we do our webcast, what we said to everybody looks like a turn the corner, but certainly no, bull market. somewhat recoveries. When we talk to you about leadership, we're talking about things popping, leading the market up.

So I still think it's narrow, but definitely less narrow. The S&P above range gives it a chance to do better. In the Dow today, 3M up 8 on Friday, down 4 today. That type of things. Boeing, down 4 today. Caterpillar was up 17 on Friday, up for down for today.

So that'll weigh a little bit on it. But overall, not a biggie. We're pretty much past a lot of the earnings. There'll be some more coming on. But as I even look through this week, there's really nothing as far as earnings this week. I do believe the Fed is next Wednesday, which, just so you know, to the markets, have been much more of a non-event. Up next, we'll stick with the markets, much more.

I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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That's 888-4-22-5-59. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola. who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.

Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication, we deep dive into your OTC medication, and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change.

Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. With the Venmo debit card, a taco in one hand, and ordering a ride in the other, means you're stacking your rewards. Nice. Get up to 5% cash back with Venmo Stash on your favorite brands when you pay with your Venmo debit card. From takeout to ride shares, entertainment and more. Pick a bundle with your go-tos and start earning cash back at those brands.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Mike Pence has entered the presidential race. Chris Christie looks like he's going to be entering this week. Mike Pence, a good man, will be completely, drowned out simple as that

completely drowned out the chalk is Trump and DeSantis things can change I don't think anybody enters into that realm and we'll see how it goes

it seems that Trump has the word isn't lock he just has the Trump people that aren't moving. Anybody who moved moved already, I'm not so sure there's going to be more, but I believe DeSantis will have consideration as we move forward. And as I've said to when I mean this, you know, dead on,

it's Trump's to lose. And he's saying some things that basically he better be careful. about because people will change. We'll see how it goes. On the other end, Robert Kennedy, Jr. is running against Joe Biden. The media will not even give him a shake, even though he's polling amazingly, I think like 15 to 19 percent. I think the guy's a doofus. And I say that, I'm going to take that back. I disagree with just a ton of his. He's one of these, anti-this, anti-that. By the way, he also has been curing favor with some anti-Semites.

I have really not much use for him. But amazingly, on the right, people are kissing his butt. I guess because he's gone after Biden. We'll see how that goes. Anyway, it's going to get more and more interesting. And again, I have never been more optimistic. on most of us. I've never been more pessimistic on all of them, which takes me into the short shrift. So I actually watched President Biden do his little, hey, we cut the deal and we want to thank

the other side. We came together and this and that, but I'm just going to go through four or five things he said. He said, and I quote, a record 1.7 trillion. I I already cut in the first two years in office deficits. So let me be clear. It's a bunch of bull crap. I would say it to his face. He's a liar. He's a stinking liar.

And it's a shame. After the last guy, you just hope you can get the straight. It's an absolute gargantuan lie. All that happened is the major. deficit on COVID spending came down back to the norm. That's the 1.7. It has nothing to do with Joe Biden. Next, he said, American people got what they needed. And I'll hold that one off for a second. He then said, they're cutting and bringing down deficits at the same time. That is a bunch of bull crap. Gargantuan, smelly, stinky pile of bull crap. He says over the next 10 years, the deficit will be cut by

one trillion. You're a man. You weigh 180 pounds. You gained 60 to 240 pounds. And then you lose 10. You're still up 50. Joe Biden's a lion sack, a stinking lion's sack on our treasure, on the taxpayer. With a straight face, I have zero respect. whatsoever on him looking straight into the camera. There are no cuts. There are no spending cuts. They're raising spending in fashions unimaginable and then telling us we're going to take a sliver down.

That's what they did. They said, here's the proposal. We're going to go from 4.4 trillion 2019 to 6.7-something trillion. That's the proposal. Oh, and then they meet with each other and take a sliver off of the proposal. So massive increase in spending, massive increase in debt, massive increase in deficits, and your president of the United States stood there at a desk looking straight into the camera and lying out his rear end.

That's all. We have never seen in the amounts. such lies they know they're lying they know we know they're lying they don't care you know what they're hoping for

and they're right we're just going to go back to our business it's no longer to be reported anymore because now we just increase the debt ceiling again they've perfected the marketing and the con brought to you by also

a client media who for days was sitting there saying it's a catastrophe if we don't do this. They just cut another credit card with a monstrous higher credit limit to pay for the last one. They've done nothing about Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid government programs that are doomed to go bankrupt. They know they're going to be either dead or retired so they don't care. they'll be gone and that's all. When you have a chance, go look at what federal spending is going to be next year,

go look at what the deficit's going to be. And that's by the way, that's a deficit they're saying it's going to be. You know that's always higher. And then come back and tell me that they lowered the deficit and lowered spending. The Congressional Budget Office has already said to us, we're going to go up in debt a good 10 to 20 trillion bucks from here in the next decade or so. And this man, our president, this lifer in D.C., said over the next 10 years they're cutting the deficit by 1 trillion. That's after raising it, 10 to 20 trillion.

He's disgusting. And by the way, so are the rest of them. I found a couple of heroes, one named Chip Roy, that got drowned out. And by the way, you know what they're very good at. If you want balanced budgets and no deficits, you're extreme. Up next, we'll pay back in the markets. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists

to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication.

We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. With the Venmo debit card, a taco in one hand, and ordering a ride in the other, means you're stacking your rewards. Nice.

Get up to 5% cash back with Venmo Stash on your favorite brands when you pay with your Venmo debit card. From takeout to ride shares, entertainment, and more. Pick a bundle with your go-tos and start earning cash back at those brands. Do more stash, get more cash. Venmo Stash bundle terms and exclusion supply. See terms at Venmo.combe. Max $100 cash back per month.

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He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better. if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.

Just a couple other notes and we'll get off D.C. I highly expect Donald Trump will be indicted in the next 90 days to 180 days. He's going to be indicted. Everything I'm seeing says he's going to be indicted. They're leaking. And this is bad news, but this is, This is the fact.

They are already leaking that they have them on tape about documents and things like that. And we'll see what else. I'm pretty sure that he's going to be indicted. I also want to go ahead and mention on DeSantis. Remember what I told you that as soon as he starts running, he'll be the Antichrist. they're going after his wife Trump loyalists are calling his wife the Walmart Melania

this is what it's come down to by the way we're not taking any side here because I'm not so thrilled with a bunch of things the Sanis has done though he's been a good governor before this whole couple other episodes so we'll keep you covered we'll do it with no bias because we can't stand any of them

but we do like some policies of some of these people but until somebody comes around and talks about our bank account. You know what I mean by our bank account? The one that's $32 trillion in debt. That's gone of 50. Enough of that. Unless I think of something else. And by the way, don't get mad at me.

Get mad at them. I'm not doing any of that stuff to you. They are. and if you ever see Joe Biden, why don't you ask him, why do you give $380 billion of our tax dollars to John Podesta to give out for climate? And who's getting it? You may want to ask that. All right. A few notes.

Number one, we thought part of the process of the broad market getting better would be a moderation of the, things that have gone into the tree tops. There hasn't been a ton of names, but you've had a decent amount of names. In software and, you know, artificial intelligence. I can tell you, there were a few names today that had another pretty darn good day off of that. In software land, artificial intelligence. land, we will tell you that we think semiconductors, so far that's where we think it's happening.

Whether or not it gets other things don't know. But definitely the semis that went straight up on pullback mode. NVIDIA, the most asked about stock at this juncture, looks to me like, in the trees, now settling down. And what that means is you just got to let moving averages catch up. And then if this thing is going to go to 600 like people think, analysts think, it'll move out of here. Maybe it moves out of here tomorrow. Maybe it doesn't go anywhere. Maybe it fails from here.

All we know is it gapped up big, huge. It tried to break above that range, reversed that day. which was last Tuesday and since little distribution. We're going to keep you on that because it has the potential to definitely go a lot higher. But when things get in the trees, they got to sit a little bit. So that's the Nvidia because we're getting asked about it eight times a day. Apple. So Apple today had the big confab, show different things.

things actually hit 184.95 closed at once I have it at 179. Let me see if I can get this right. Well, in the aftermarket, it's 17950 as I write this. Simple as that. And volume was heavy. What does that mean? It's called sell the news. What does that mean? All the news was out. Apple came out and went through a litany of things about what they're coming out with. They actually mentioned something called Unity Software in their presentation. The stock goes up 17% before you say boom. I've been already asked about Apple 10 times in the afternoon about today's action. It just extended right now.

When we use the term extended for a stock, that just means it's gone. farther than its norm. And there's also a measuring stick. When you're a mega cap, you'll tend to not go as extended as a smaller cap if you're going to go because it's easy to move smaller caps. So we think that's all that's going on there, as well as a bunch of other names. And we'll let you know, as the semiconductors pull back, they're going to pull things back. The socks broke out at 32, 33, went to 3640 in a matter of three days. That's what we mean by extended. So it's already back to 3444, probably some more to go.

And what we just do every day, we just scan them. One by one by one. And what we look for is secondary by points. What is a secondary buy point? Well, a place where we get this feel that doesn't want to go any lower or moving averages. What's a moving average? It's just add up the days, divide by that number.

You get a moving average. We use the 50 day. And the 21 day means you're stronger. And I can tell you something like CELH, that's that drink, popped off the 21-day moving average three days ago. So we're going to be looking for that and all the semiconductors. We don't think they're ready yet. As the broad market, I have yet to scan. And as we said last week, the S&P broke above range, great.

And the worst areas woke up. To repeat, does not mean they get going, does not mean they get bullish, but they're less of an anchor right now. Subject to change, of course, because you're dealing with the lagging areas. Here's what else we're able to do right now. Semiconductors romped to the upside. what semiconductors aren't, what semiconductors are weak. So we're able to now start classifying weakness and strength. We'll do that too.

New high list starts to pick up. Guess what we start measuring that new high list. So there's a lot of moving parts going on right now. The story though is, even though the NASDAQ was down 11, today and the NASDAQ 100 was only up nine. You'd still had some pretty darn good action. And some of this, I'm going to say it again, AI, software types. And to be clear, they're all mentioning artificial intelligence in their conference calls,

in their news announcements, in their earnings calls, in their everything. It's the new big thing. Only in time will we know if this is a lot of cock, And what do we mean by that? In 1999, not only companies, but mutual funds change their names in order to attract. Companies would add dot com to their name and the stock would fly. Mutual funds that were called the so-and-so technology fund would change to the so-and-so Internet fund. Why?

Attract assets. So now that everybody's talking artificial intelligence, and actually moving things, we don't know yet which are the pretenders, which are BS, which are not. Because just remember, when all said and done, they're going to have to make money off of it. When all is said and done, valuation is going to matter. When all is said and done, price is going to matter. Not fluff. Not somebody's words.

And just because somebody says, oh, we're going to have three AI products, doesn't mean anything. Except right now. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, and whatever else, this is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists

to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues

we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication.

We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. With the Venmo debit card, a taco in one hand, and ordering a ride in the other means you're stacking your rewards. Nice. Get up to 5% cash back with Venmo Stash on your favorite brands when you pay with your Venmo debit card. from takeout to ride shares, entertainment and more.

Pick a bundle with your go-tos and start earning cash back at those brands. Do more stash, get more cash. Venmo-stash bundle terms and exclusions apply. See terms at Venmo.com. Max-100 cash back per month. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation,

temporary dim or dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In the Gester's Edge With Gary Culper. I have no idea who wins the NBA finals. But man, I'm always watched a team's will to win. And I'm not saying

Denver doesn't. But man, Miami just has that look to them. And I don't know if you watched game one, but Miami lost, but if they just hit a few threes, they probably win that game. They impressed the hell out of me. 1-1. Games tied up. Heading back to Miami.

Wednesday and Friday. And I would go to like Friday's game, go down from Orlando, but I ain't moving. I'm hanging. You know what my therapy is tonight? at a pool going in the pool that's the back therapy tonight all right a few things of import markets number one in case you don't know in case you didn't know and we don't mention it often the one year bill right now risk-free 5.2% and you don't pay state and local just federal Just letting you know, a one-year treasury.

I think money markets pretty much are in line there, too. But when you get one year, you lock in. Just so you know, a three-month bill, and I haven't looked at it a lot, but I bet you it's more than the one year. 5.31. Just letting you know, I used to have a great income business. And then I had no income business. My income business is getting back again.

And I'm not just talking treasuries, but corporates and the like. But right now, treasuries are better. So we're just letting you know. The expectation is those yields are going to be coming down. And at the end of the three month or six month or one year, whatever you do, will be less. The five year is at 3.83. And remember, normally, you're supposed to get paid more. The father you go out.

But not in this market. And of course, you know why. The utter distortions brought you by Mr. Bubble. Well, Mr. Bubble number two, Powell. Now, the Fed's next week. We don't care. maybe they move the market for an hour or two but they really haven't moved thing much and I just want to let you know they really everybody thinks they have this great sway over the economy we think they have zero I don't know anybody thinks you know what we've been told oh they're going to force a recession the end of the world's the job number on Friday was pretty damn good so I'm not paying too much attention to them unless if they really start thinking about going into the sixes in yields, then we'll be talking.

But right now they're not going to raise rates next week. They've already telegraphed that. And then we'll take it from there because, frankly, we're almost tired of watching them. Main points, though, semiconductors on pullback remain bullish. Software coming on, even more. and not the big ones. The big ones still fine. But a lot of the smaller names,

and we're talking about the ones that were destroyed. Stocks went from 400 down to 80 are rallying up. Some nicely. We mentioned MDB last week. Gapped up monstrous amounts. They mentioned AI, of course, several dozen times. But they had good numbers. Gets on our watch list.

and every time something gaps up like that gets on a watch list. Chipotle, great gap to the upside on their burritos and whatever else they sell. Since eight weeks, one, two, three, four, five, six weeks of nothing. Just what you want to see. If Chipotle breaks above range, we take a big look. so there are a decent amount of good setups going forward not yet still extended need to confirm Friday the broad market picks up we'll see if that continues even though the Dow was down 199 today remember the S&P only down 8 and the Dow was up 700 Friday as long as the

S&P and write this down stays above 4,200, and you can possibly get a little underneath. A break below 4,100, you'll be hearing from us. By the way, the amazing part about it, it's only about 4% in change. That's how close, great and not so great is in the market right now. So we think this is going to be quite the interesting summer, and as we head into the end of the year, We're paying no attention to the boo birds. We're paying no attention to the perma bulls. We're paying attention to what's in front of us.

And as we tell you, when wrong, we'll be wrong fast and be wrong small. When right, try to let them run. And I can promise you one thing, that ain't easy. We think the hardest thing going is be able to hold through corrections, bearish phases what O'Neil was great at Bill O'Neill, we've mentioned them quite a few times he was a master at that

you all have a great evening drive carefully hopefully I can get some back rest tonight and when you get home do like we do it's quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better I promise have a great evening everybody and by the way thank you all for your well wishes and your concern

bye-bye all This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Hi, this is Danielle Robey, the host of Bookmarked by Reese's Book Club, a podcast by Hello Sunshine and IHeart Podcasts. I'm partnering with Simple Mills and I've just found my new go-to reading snack, Simple Mills' almond flour crackers.

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