Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The consumer [05.11.2026]

Episode Date: May 11, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's the 11th of May.

It's Monday. 2026. Hope you had a good weekend. I did. The Knicks are playing fantastic. and blew away Philadelphia. And now we wait for, what is it, Detroit or Cleveland. I got to tell you, for the first time in a long while,

I am quite excited about winning the whole thing. Even the last two years when they went far. Okay, that's our sports for the day. In case you don't know, this is serious talk about everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry. Let's see. We'll do war tariffs, liars, cheaters, stealers, yeah, whatever. But I hope you listen carefully about some of the things I have to say today. Movie Importante. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post it on our X feed. If you don't follow us on X, you should. Just put our name in. If you'd like to email us, you just got to be nice. It shouldn't be hard, right? You can disagree 1,000% but respectful. We'll be respectful back, unless you like Hamas. Okay, a few things. I'm worried about the economy. Maybe.

Let me explain. We are very big believers that the markets have eyes, have ears, and most importantly a mouth. What's the mouth? Price movement, especially serious price movement. By the way, both ways. We say probably, or possibly, or could be, because there is a phenomenon going on in the markets right now.

In case you don't know, there is, I don't like the word mania, but there's a little bit of a mania going on right now with semiconductors and artificial intelligence stocks. And when I say that, I mean, some of the moves are record-breaking. And you had another day today. And I must tell you, I'll give out the final numbers in a second. but the market, I believe, around, try and think what time today, with a few minutes to go where it was basically flat

and finished up 95, which is small. And the whole move was really Caterpillar. Caterpillar was 200-dou points today. That's the second highest price. but that's besides the point. The NASDAQ was only up 27, but the NASDAQ 100 was up 85. And we'll explain that. And we're just wondering, just so you know how markets work,

when you get an area of the market going vertical, the big portfolio managers will have their meetings in the morning, and they'll look at what they own and they'll see, because a lot of them are diversified, and they'll see, well, this area, this area, this area, this area, they're in ugly downtrends, and look at this area that's gone vertical. Why are we in any of these ugly downtrends?

So what they do is they sell at any price after a drop to buy at any price after a move up. and it accentuates the moves. And that has me, again, thinking that what I'm about to tell you may be more stock market movement than predictive of the economy. That said, just in case the market has a mouth, call me very worried about the consumer and the potential for some kind of a downturn in the economy. We already know the job market is suspect. You know it's suspect when you have a political party

popping champagne corks on 110,000 jobs and calling it, what a what a report. No, it's nothing. 110 is nothing. And when you looked inside of the report, take out this and that, there wasn't much. So I'm just letting you know, if you scan the markets, let me describe for you, if you don't mind. Abercrombie and Fitch almost at New Yearly lows as it drops another 7% today. They only do about, what, $5, $6 billion in revenue. American Eagle Outfitters down another 7% today. And at about nine-month lows, you see where I'm going with this? Academy Sports just topped out a bunch of weeks ago was down 5% today. Best Buy, yeah, don't worry about them.

That's at New Yearly lows. They only do about $40 billion in revenues. How about BJ wholesalers? That's near New Yearly lows. Burlington, that's Burlington stores, was just at new highs three weeks ago at $352. It's already down to $2.92 and down 4% today. How about Boot Barn down 6% today?

and in quite the downtrend. Crocs, they make those shoes. I don't need, it's weak. How about, notice I'm going alphabetical. How about Dillard's Department Store? That's at eight-month lows. They only do about $6 billion in revenues. How about Decker's?

And again, they make certain things. It was down 4% today. pretty much one year, not one year lows, but it's on its way. How about Dollar Tree? And think about it. Dollar Tree is right at New Yearly lows down about 5%. And got to throw Dollar General in there down 7.5% today. Dollar stores.

Estee Lauder has just gone from 121 to 82. Five below has been acting great. had a bad reversal Thursday, dropped another 7% today, breaking the big trend line. This was a strong one. Floor and decor, well, anything housing-related, it's going to be near a new yearly low. I don't know if this one, Canada Goose, 11-month low. The gap. Okay, the gap.

Eight-month low, down 7% today. You catching where I'm going here? Because the artificial intelligence stocks had another bafo day today. While I'm doing this, Gilden active wear, I don't even know what the heck of the clothing in a bare market. Coles down 10% today. No, not making that up, 10% today. Coles. Home Depot and lows.

Lows right near New Yearly Lows, Home Depot at New Yearly Lows. housing related. You already know about Lulu Lemon. And that's on them. New Yearly Low, stocks down a bazillion percent. LVM. LVMH, that is for the very rich people, near New Yearly lows.

Down another 3.5% today. Macy's, down 4% today. How about, again, this is on holdings. They got the footwear and crap. That's right at New Yearly Lows. How about Ali? What is that, Ali's bargain? That is New Yearly lows and down another 8% today. Big bear market for that one. Pool Inc. They make pools housing related. Guess what? I'm going to guess it's in a bare market. Yes, it's at New Yearly Lows. Raw stores has been the strongest name in the market. Cracked the 50 day today on heavy volume.

for the first time in like 11 months. The strongest name cracks today. They do report in a couple of days, though. Ralph Lauren, apparel, whatever and all that. Down 4% today. I don't need to do restoration hardware. That's, you know, where that's at because it's housing related. Up next, we'll finish the retail.

We'll make our points. And much more. This is the one only investor's edge. I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59.

That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay, how about, yeah, yeah, real and in the years. Sinette Jewelers down five, almost five percent today. That's jewelry. T.J. T.JX.

Down 3% today. Very rough day. And just topped out recently. How about, well, again, tractor supply. I mean, holy crap. Multi-year lows. How about Target?

That was strong. Down 5.5% today. Totally cracks today. Target. Tapestry. Isn't that like the old coach and stuff? Completely broken down. How about Urban Outfitters, knows where alphabetical, down another 4% today?

How about Victoria's Secret, down another 4% today? And just so you know, these are all in bearish phases, bare markets, downtrends, William Sonoma, eight-month low, down 3.5% today. So that's a bunch of the retail. Oh, you might as well do AutoZone, O'Reilly Automotive, and Advanced Auto parts all probing lows or big downtrends. How about GM? That's retail, right?

It's autos. Breaking down and Ford really broke down a while ago. And Stalantus has been in a big bear market anyhow. Oh, and by the way, Ferrari, simple race has been in a bare market. So retail, apparel, autos. I mean, I can do auto dealers. They're just in a bearish phase. But that's not all.

Because the cruise lines, and of course, oil-related and stuff, they're in bear markets. Bearish phases, not Viking. Viking's been strong, but kind of topy in here. How about the casinos? Las Vegas Sands, bear market. Wins Resorts, Bear Market. MGM. Not as bad, but certainly not a bull market.

And then there's the airlines that have rallied up a little bit off of ceasefire, but not in bull markets. And I can do restaurants because Domino's Pizza is at a New Yearly Low. And some of these things have their own little issues. Shake Shack, down another five bucks into New Yearly lows after they got swamped a couple of days ago on their crappy earnings. What else I got for you? Wing stop.

Is it New Yearly Lows? You catch in the drift? Consumer? And I can do consumer staples. They're in a bare market also, but those are staples. They're more defensive. I can just move them to the side.

And then something happening near term right now that may be consumer-related. Maybe. the regional banks are really starting to break down now. Now keep in mind, they are lower beta, don't make moves like others, so it's not like they're going to get squashed or any, well, they did under Silicon Valley thing. They're just going lower. So we're just letting you know,

we're not here to harsh the buzz or anything, but in the midst of what is in a semiconductor artificial intelligence frenzy, The consumer area is acting like the south end of a northbound jackass. Though Tesla was up today, believe it or not, it was down 10 on the open, then it was announced they're going to be with the White House in China. And then some analysts came out and said the same thing every analyst has been saying about robots, and the stock went up 26 bucks by the close, and is actually acting pretty decently. But back on my point.

If the market, if these areas are not just, oh, they're selling it to buy this, which they are, but if there's a rhyme and a reason, we'll see. And I know you got the economic advisor out saying, oh, five or six percent. They obviously don't listen to this show about overpromising and under-delivering because he's still out talking five, six-persexual. While you're not even close, I hope we go do go five, six percent. I'm rooting for them. Anyway, we just wanted to start because this sticks out like a sore thumb, especially when it's accentuated to the downside meaning they're already weak. They're already in a bare market. They're already way, way down, and they're going even lower.

and notice we did some obscure names but we also did Home Depot and Lowe's oh by the way Walmart which will tend to hold up better than most that was down 2% today so let's keep an eye on that retail apparel restaurants airlines cruise lines casinos autos auto dealers consumers consumers Not to mention the housing stocks had just been obliterated. So just keep that in mind. And maybe it's just the institutions doing their thing. By the way, Madison Square Garden stock was up 13 bucks because the Knicks, just letting you know, my Knicks. So I just wanted to start with that.

We'll switch over to a couple other things. just silver much better looking just letting you know remember we called the climactic top back in January well one month two month three month three and a half months it looks like to maybe turn the corner here pretty good today and I really can't say that about gold but if gold has one good day it'll jump back above the 50 day but just letting you know silver And the Bitcoin continues to not have much oomph, but just getting better by the day. Little stair steps up. So just letting you know on those two areas.

But the big story, we came into today. These things were overbought, stretched and extended. And in the first five minutes, they would jumping them up again. Jumping them up. Today, big movers, Sienna, Caterpillar. How about L-I-T-E was getting weaker, announced into the NASDAQ 100, was up 16% today.

Micron, which I fumbled and stumbled that trade, up 6.5% today. Seagate, Western Digital, one you may have not heard of VICOR, V-I-C-R, boom breaks out on volume this is all electronic parts data storage memory and all that crap western digital a coherent today these names are just wow and by the way the nasdaq was only up 27 semiconductors the socks up another 300 it's amazing up next what else is going on and then a change of my stance on something important. This is the one to only Investors Edge. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colt Bomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So there's the consumer.

I do want to announce the president. I guess he's going to try and get rid of the 18 cent federal gas tax, a whopping 18 cents. So you are up what? Like a buck 50 and you're going to get 18 cent relief. Just letting you know. Just letting you know. The left is all over the president on this. Big time.

Big time all over the president. about how high gas prices are, but hey, you're going to give them 18 cents, whatever. Change of stance. I have told you I'm 100% sure that the Republicans are losing the House and more than likely going to lose the Senate, though it's going to be a tough road for the Democrats to get the Senate. That's changed. I still think that they're going to lose the House.

I don't think they're losing the Senate. Let me tell you what's happened. You can go read about it. There's been court cases on the redistricting of certain states, and the Republicans have win, win, win, where districts now that were, without a doubt, not only leaning Democrat, but pretty much Democrat have turned Republican.

they moved the the Republicans filed lawsuits and it moves they know where the big Dems are and where they aren't

it moved the the chess pieces just letting you know and boy whoever is their attorneys have done a great job of doing this I guess there's a term

gerrymandering or whatever you want to call it. The Republicans have one big time on this potential in November. Just letting you know. Now, before you all get huffy and puffy about, I can't believe the Democrats are expert at it also. They just happened to lose. Many years ago, in Florida, they tore up a district that ended up looking like almost like a boomerang the Democrats did

almost a boomerang so both part just so you know we can't stand either party both parties have been doing it for a very long time but this time Republicans really won so I

I'm gonna state I don't see how they lose the Senate I still think odds favor they lose the House but there's every chance now they can keep the house. It looks like eight seats may have moved because of the redistricting. And I know the left who's listening to show is going to be pissed off.

It's not my fault. I had nothing to do with it. I'm just reporting the news. We'll keep you up to date on that as we get closer on where things sit. the poll numbers against Trump and the Republicans are still a horror show, but the redistricting changes the playing field. And you should all read up about what they did, how they did it, and what the outcome is, or what it could be.

Wow. A big wow. So I wanted to bring that up also. While we're on the subject, nothing good has been coming out of the Iran thing. As I have said to you, total miscalculation on our part. We've won militarily, but tactically, negotiating-wise, I think we've done a real bad job of understanding, hey, Get rid of your ego maniacal thinking that you're perfect and realize there's another party there that doesn't give a crap about you.

We'll see how that plays out. And lastly, on the political front, and I got a good email from somebody. We're going to box the little political stuff into one little segment every day. The president was out today without admitting it, admitting that, tariffs are paid by us. He put out a stupid tweet. We're on social media. Whatever.

I'm so over him and over them, over all of them, I can't begin to tell you. I just want people to be straight with us, and that's never going to happen, either side of the aisle. Just letting you know. Anyway, and that's it for the politics side today.

The president is heading to China and we'll let you know what's going on there. And that's just another story that the president, I get along with him and was my friend. I got news for you. This guy, Xi, can't stand the guy. And he's laughing about it. Anyway, back on point, the move in the semiconductors, artificial intelligence for the record book. At the end of Friday, unbelievably stretched and extended away from all the norm. You could have bought the clothes Friday on about 15 or 20 names on Friday after gargantuan moves and made your year today.

light up what 15% micron up 6% VICR what about 15% VRT about 8% Western Digital 6% this today

on top of a gargantuan move already rarefied air and the number one question we are getting are we headed for a 99 top climactic top and look out i wouldn't bet against it at this juncture because if you have studied these things parabolic moves have always and in a climactic move and then cause much pain for the late comers always always we'll keep your breast will let you know. I have to tell you. And I'm not ashamed to say. I stumbled and bumbled my way since April 8th, that a 1500 point, or was it a 1,500 point gap to the upside, or was

a 1200? Whatever it was, it was big. And then we had another one, all because of war news, and it kept me from really jumping on this and I done okay with the ETFs but traded my way into oblivion and you know what? Every big stock I put out on a list for myself and my peeps in the weeks before the move starting April 8th

that's how you know this ain't easy it's physical it's psychological you can have the best freaking eyes in the business but you got to deliver the cake and when you're dealing with war and constant back and forth news and oil prices up 10

down 10 and threats of this that and the other thing and then a 1500 point an 800 point NASDAQ point gap and then three days later another gap it ain't easy. Not an excuse.

It ain't easy. And I got to tell you, you know what I did April 8th? We bought the socks. Perfectly. Perfectly. You know what we did about eight days later? Sold it with very good gains. You know what it's done since?

Vertical. So as you know, as I always tell you, we keep a running commentary on ourselves in our little at a glance book. Oh, we have a lot of things that we've said. Hey, up next, what else going on

with the markets? A few other things sticking out. This is the one to only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. What do you know? I'm just thumbing through and you know they got this polymarket crap. Quote, Republican surge past Democrats in Senate midterm odds after the Democrats were leading. Of course, the redistricting. Redistricting. And you should all very much read about it.

You should learn this stuff. What else? Oil bounce today, but I'm not a big. fan of the oil stocks right now. Mixed bag. There's some strong, there's some weak. There's some better. There's some worse. Defense stocks still weak. I mentioned to you the whole

consumer complex. There's not many other areas of the market that are what we call strong, but I put steel stocks in there. Well, Caterpillar in the Dow. But I must tell you, it is really artificial intelligence, semiconductors, data, data storage, and some of these other things I don't even understand what they do, that are coming on strong. And definitely better software, but not all. security software has been coming on.

But again, not all. When we say not all, Adobe acts like crap, big name, Salesforce.com acts like crap, big name. Microsoft, blah, Oracle, a little better than the rest, SAP, terrible, some of the more obscure names, terrible.

But some things have come on pretty strong. When I say software securities crowd strike coming up the right side big time. Palo Alto networks coming up the right side big times. And if you don't know what the right side means, it just means the stock was much higher six months ago, went through a protracted downtrend, probe the lows, now coming up the right side. Does that make any sense? You can draw it out for yourself. Banks, just letting you know.

We'll see what happens. J.P. Morgan acting very suspicious. Wells Fargo, I don't know if you know this, within a point or so of new yearly lows. Stock's dead. Bank America rolling over badly. Those are three important big banks, and we already told you about the regionals. That said, Morgan Stanley, hang in okay. That said Bank of New York, hang it okay.

That said Goldman Sachs, I'll give him, needs to break above 953. It's 944 and change. To be watched. Why? That would have another pin being pulled. Another pin being pulled. I also have to mention transports. Another rough day for them.

And I'm watching closely because, you know, the rails and truckers have been okay. But the truckers look like they got the suspect now. Rails still okay, but maybe topy. And you already know the transport index went straight up and straight down because of Avis ran a car. They really need to take that sucker out of the transport index. it's skewing it like crazy. I wish that the semiconductor AI did not do what it did so much so quick. It reminds of 99.

It reminds. And we're being told, oh, don't worry, it's not like 99. Because back then you didn't have earnings. That's a lie. People are lying to you. or they just haven't done their homework. Cisco had big earnings, EMC, Intel, all had big earnings. America Online all had big earnings.

I can go through Dell back then. Microsoft. All had big earnings. So I don't know what the hell these people are talking about. And I can tell you most of the internet crap topped out in mid-99. So one has to be very careful about that. And the other part of the equation is O'Neill has taught us and we have studied it. Stocks will top on their strongest of earnings because that's the peak of the earnings.

Now we are predicting nothing. We're not predicting anything. We're just letting you know we have got an outlier event in the semiconductor. and I'll say about 50 other names in artificial intelligence of different whatever. I also have to mention space stocks, rocket labs on Friday, big move on their earnings or lack of they lost money, but up another 11% today and some other space stocks getting on the strong side here. And SpaceX is coming public soon so maybe a little.

little cause and a little effect. But after that, I'm mostly looking at things that are worsening. And I didn't mention a bunch of the areas. So very, very split and very, very, the good get gooder, the bad getting badder. And I mean badder. And if you want to know what badder is, go get a chart of Lulu Lemon. And you tell me. And now even the strongest retail stocks have topped out and they are getting sold down, which had me asking the question earlier, we got a recession coming? Because the market is pretty damn smart. And as I said, has eyes, ears and a mouth. Let's just hope this institutions unpositioning themselves to position themselves at any price on the downside and any price to the upside. You'll have a great evening drive carefully.

When you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise stay well, be well. Have a great one. Good night. on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garykay.com. That's GaryKK.com.