Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The crappy week in review [02.21.2025]

Episode Date: February 21, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Friday, February 21st, 2025, and pretty darn glad the markets over for the week. We'll explain in just a couple of minutes. Hey, hope you having a good day. Hope you have a good weekend. Not traveling up to the Northeast this weekend,

but I'm driving down to South Florida to meet with the accountant and get all that crap done. Yay, no fun. Anyway, thanks for joining us. In case you don't know, this is serious talk about everything that affects you. The markets, the economy, doge, debt, debt. Deficit, scams, shams, corruption, you name it, we cover it. Of course, we add in the media there that's, I think, the most corrupt organization out there because they never, ever play it down the middle. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it at our Twitter feed, which is now X.

And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you'd like to email us, just be nice. no doge moment today except we want to thank the New York Post, Fox News and Fox Business, and a couple of others for covering what we brought up to yesterday about the scam of Stacey Abrams. We predicted it a long time ago, create a nonprofit to collect two, billion of our tax dollars on climate, even though she knows nothing about the climate. She's a scammer.

I tell it to her face. I'm not afraid to say that. It's a joke. It's laughable. It's legal thievery. So we're glad they covered it, but here's the interesting part. CNN didn't cover it. MSNBC didn't cover it.

Washington Post didn't cover it. New York Times didn't cover it. ABC, NBC, CBS, CBS, didn't cover it. Why? Because they refuse to cover bad things for their people. You know, they're our side. So even though this is crookery, if that's a word, we're not going to cover it. Just like in the first election, Biden against Trump, they blacked out everything of Hunter Biden. Just remember all this.

Well, we'll keep covering it. as Doge does more and more. And I'm getting some feedback from people that don't like how they're going about things, that they're doing all these things at once, and they fired people, then they hired them back because of nuclear. I agree with you.

I agree. I think they should be very careful on how they do this. Very careful. But they won't listen to me. I don't matter. We just hope they get it right, and they do something. about our debt and deficits in the size of government that has quadrupled since the year

2000 and is up over 60% since the year before COVID. By the way, we're not making that up. Our government spending is up over 60% from the year before COVID. 4.4 trillion in 2019. We're at 7 now and going higher. And as you see, anybody whining and complaining about doing something about it are just clowns and I'd say it to their face too. Ladies and gentlemen, we take pride. We take pride here in working very hard at what we do when it comes to the markets. We put a lot of time and a lot of effort into them. We take double pride in our, what we call the protection of your capital in tough markets or in manias that we always tell you are going to go back where they came from. We always tell you that. We doubly take pride when

we say to you, hey, this area is bullish, this area is bearish and avoid. and there are moments in time where there's a lot of that crap going on and you have to be careful and we're not going to tell you what to do today we're not going to tell you to buy, sell short or cover what we're going to tell you is what we're seeing and what we are thinking and as always you get to decide. Because going into this week, what have we been saying to you? Well, let's see.

Gold, strong. China, going vertical. A select group of growth names. Strong with a lot of stocks gaping up on earnings reports. On the other end, we've said to you, avoid oils for the most part avoid a ton of the economically sensitive names you know the building slash construction slash chemicals slash materials slash industrials we told you to avoid most of the commodity names we've told you to avoid the home builders

We've told you to avoid the rails and the truckers. We've told you to avoid retail except we have said to you how. We thought the big institutions were selling all these retailers, the big ones, and just parking it in Walmart and Costco. turning Costco into 60 times earnings. 60 times earnings. Walmart, 40 times earnings. So sell Macy, sell gap. But of course, Walmart, we said topped out yesterday on their earnings reports.

That happens after a big move. We said to yesterday there may have been a shot across the bow on the financials. Goldman Sachs was down like 36 at one time. I think it closed down 26. J.P. Morgan got hit for 12. We've been bearish on Solars forever. We've said anything below the 50-day moving average have to be an avoid. And if they break below the 200, that's the big one. We've been saying time and time again, large caps over small caps. time and time again, large caps over small caps because the small caps just were not keeping up. And in fact, whenever the market would get in trouble, what I would have been hearing is, oh, if the large caps ever go down, the money will flow into small caps. No, the small caps lead down. And the same goes to a little less or so, midcaps. And we can see it by looking at the picture.

You don't even have to listen, just look at the picture. Shear underperformance. Well, without rationalizing, the small and the midcaps were crushed today. Crushed. Failed miserably at a lower high. Think about what a lower high is. You drop. Five floors.

You rally a floor and then you drop another three floors. That's what the small and midcaps did today. The transports were rocked today. The oils were rocked. The retail worsened. The housing worsened. The rails and truckers worsen. The commodities worsen.

Oh, what have we told you about the semiconductors? There's maybe three that have little uptrendes. there's a ton in bare markets and a few in AI land holding up. Well, they rocked the semiconductors today. They hit the economically sensitive stuff today. They beat up the financials again today. And of course, United Health was down 36 bucks. I think it was down 56 on the open.

In case you don't know, Justice Department is going after them on price. So up next, we'll talk that because we told you we were worried about that and the rest of the market. Up next. On this, the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-422-559. That's 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colbaum Capital Management.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And well, once again, to Investors Edge. So United Health was down 36 bucks today. Hit 438. It was down 62 at the open, I believe.

So we basically said when that stupid piece of crap let him die in jail from murdering the CEO of United Health and amazingly a bunch of others pieces of crap people are sending him money for his defense

a murderer you're all sick in the mind anyway I digress that day and the subsequent days after that it had come out that United Health was very aggressive in their denials of insurance claims. And that's not good publicity, right? And then about their, I guess, pricing for business and things like that.

And we just said, they get a decent amount of money from the government. don't you think they're going to be in the crosshairs? And at the time, the stock got trashed. Went from like 620 down to 475, bounced up to 550, which is kind of normal on a big drop like that. Well, what came out today is the Department of Justice is looking into their practices for recording diagnosis that can result. result in additional payments from the federal government on this Medicare Advantage plans. And United Health came out with a statement, of course, defending themselves. They said they're not aware of any activity, but they blame the Wall Street Journal.

They had a year-law campaign to all kinds of crap. Well, $36 later, which was about 6 times 3 is 18, 6 times, 6 times, 6 times, like 240 Dow points and near New Yearly lows. And hit the rest of those names also. Umana gets hit, you know, things like that. And that's one of our rules. Another stock that's been rallying recently, Super Micro, they still haven't reported their earnings. They even question their accounting, so we pretty much stay away from that. But the bigger story today.

The Dow is down 748, the S&P 104, the NASDAQ 438, the NASDAQ 453, the SOX down 174, the small and midcaps. Let's see, the midcap was down 2.38% today. The S&P was down 1.7, the Russell, 2.9. Ew. And I already scanned 1,500 names. Boy, oh boy, the technical condition worsened. The small and midcaps look like a horror show. At the close today, the S&P finished.

The 50-day moving average, 6,09. It closed at 6,013. We believe that the big cap indices have been Teflon. The reason we believe they have been Teflon is because of the makeup. In the S&P 500, in my hands, the top nine, make it eight, because Google has two classes of stock. 7, 13, 19, 23, 26, 28, 30, 32, 8, 8, 302, 8 stocks, 34% of the S&P 500. So if those eight versus, think about that, eight stocks are 34%, but 492 stocks are 66, concentration. And it's worse on the NASDAQ 100. So you got midcaps and small caps just getting

trashed. The question is, when are they going to get the big indices? Well, the S&P down to the 50-day moving average today. The NASDAQ broke below it today. The NASDAQ 100, not yet. And that's because of it. concentration. The top 10 stocks are 55% of the NASDAQ 100. There's your answer there. All I can tell you is, and I don't think we have said this before in a long while, the big cap indices that have been Teflon, where I've parked my carcass, they're now suspicious. How about that for a word? And of course, the NASDAQ break in the 50 day needs to get back above. The S&P needs to hold. I'm not so sure they're going to hold.

And I say that because they came after financials again today. The KBE, which is this bank index, breaks the 50 day. And just worsening technicals. We are not saying this is like 2,021, 22 bear market. We're saying a bunch of areas are already in a bare market. But for the big indices, I'm going to guess

there's more work to do. That'll be my guess. Which means yesterday shot across the bow. Today, they took out the bongo drums and banged on them. And things worsened. I have one screen of the big leading stocks in the market

or the stocks that really gaped up on strong earnings reports. The gaps are being filled. And more and more names are coming off my front screen and are going on my crummy left screen. Remember, I have this left screen that gathers when something breaks down. And the more names that get put on there, the more it tells you about the market.

So today, strength, this is the strength. APP, down 35, Spotify, down 29. This is the big strength, ladies and gentlemen. That's for starters. Up next. But what kicked in gear today? I'll have a thought on that. This is the one only investor's edge.

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That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000,

and airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy

With Gary Colbomb Comes highly recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge So my strong front screen Netflix down 21 Tesla Well that hasn't been strong

Down 16 Meta down 12. And boy, oh boy, meta has only dropped 57 points this week. After being told it is the strongest mega-cap stock in the market. And then more and more names crack. American Express in the financials cracks the 50 day.

Goldman Sachs was down yesterday. They just killed it in the first 10 minutes. and rallied it up at the end, but was still down 26, down another 16. J.P. Morgan, more of a lower beta name, down 16 bucks in two days. And I can sit here and list more and more, but that would just be defeating the purpose. We're making note, ew. And we'll come back on Monday, and we'll see whether the market decides to defend or not. Here's another point I want to make.

Remember a few Mondays ago. It was, what was the date on that? I'm getting it in one second. Do do, do, do, do do, do, do, do, do. I got butterfingers. How about Monday, the 27th of January? You had this big gap to the downside because you had this Chinese company that said they can do AI much cheaper and all that crap. And all the analysts have been come out and saying, ah, it's a bunch of bull crap, screw them.

Don't worry about them. Everything's great. But just buy, buy, buy, buy, buy. And I must state, for the record, that some things came back a decent amount. They're all cratering badly. Some names never came back. Remember we told you because of AI, they said, oh, you're going to need these construction companies to build these data centers. None of them even bounced.

And they're getting slammed worse. Then they said these energy companies, symbol GEV, they call it sustainable electric power systems. They crumbled that sucker today on double the average volume. Or C-E-G, down 8%, crumbled it down to near those lows. VST, crumbled it. so they gave those two and again the semi-conductors that chart of the semis again

I'll say it again it's like a three-year-old with a box of Crayola crayons and by the way I used to have the 64 box and I used to think I was cool and it also had where you can you know trim what do you call it the shaver you stick and put it in

and you know what I'm talking about that was my big thing the Crayola crayons so just a very roughed up day. I have kept it really close to the vest, big caps. They were not immune today. They finally got them today.

They were near highs. They were near highs in the last couple of days. Not anymore. And again, as I scan, I write these things down. I write areas and names down. Just a ton of damage in those areas mentioned. Now, here's the other part of the equation.

And this has me going, HMMM. So while the market, forget opinion, while the market is busting up, things like, Otis Elevator A carrier air conditioning United Rentals Down another 37 today A caterpillar

You get where I'm going with this How about Snap-on Just topped out pretty badly How about Whirlpool That just gaped down badly. How about today, symbol S-A-I-A-A-A-I-I-I-I-I think they pronounce it Shia, almost at New Yearly Lows, a big logistical trucking company, down 47 bucks today,

or Old Dominion Freight, down 17 to 180 today, or how about FedEx? You think that's economic? Down 14 today. on big volume. They're busting. They're blasting. Economically sensitive stuff. How about Marriott, that gap down and breaks down further now? How about Hyatt doing the same?

Hotels. How about yesterday? Royal Caribbean dropping 30 bucks, finishing down 20 but dropping another 10 today. Breaking support. Carnival cruise lines did it also. Norwegian cruise lines did it also. How about the airlines, which have been strong, but the symbol JETS Jets, Jets, Jets, breaks badly today? What are all these? They're all economically sensitive. We already know how bad retail is. Do you know what's been bought up with a fervor? The last two days. days? Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Philip Morris. I still don't understand that anybody can smoke cigarettes.

Hershey's, Clorox, Johnson and Johnson, Proctor & Gamble, which by the way got hit hard five days ago. What are those companies? They're recession-resistant. They're the food. They're the food. and beverage, tobacco, household products. They tend to do better in the markets when there is a worry about the economy. Now, we have had fits and starts throughout the years where, okay, the economic stocks come down and these go up

and then it stops and everything's okay again. We call this, we're on notice. We're on notice. because restaurant stocks, wing stop is crashing. Shake Shack, which gapped up on earnings yesterday, gave it all back and more today. Breaker International had that strong run and just recently gapped up, was an exhaustion gap and completely topped out. And other restaurants are just in bad shape, by the way,

except if your brother's coffee, even that was down six bucks today, about 7%. So just letting you know. No, the market is serving some notice. Not Gary. The market is serving some notice. And we'll be watching. That's all. And if anything changes, we'll let you know, but damn.

What else is happening is that we've stated since the election, there has been some repercussion stocks from the administration on the negative side because of less spending going forward. Defense contractors. defense, some of the health care, you know why there, and the like.

Anything that gets a lot of money from the government has been served notice. That could be a part of it also. And that started like the next day with symbols like B-A-H, Booz Allen, 190 to 112, or C-A-C-I-C-C-E-C-E-C-E-C-E-E-8 to 327.

So we think, again, the market has served some notice here. And we listen. And as we've stated, we've kept it really close to the vest. But the big indices were not immune today. 1.6, 1.7%. In case you don't know, that doesn't sound like a lot for the big indices. That's pretty big. Up next, what else do we have in this mind of ours?

Thanks for being here, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more.

comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar,

you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well.

I'll publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Gester's Edge with Gary Kulp. In the news, we were happy to see conservatives come out and agree with us and take the president to task for saying,

that Ukraine started the war, which is complete bull crap. We don't know why the president would say that because it's just an out-out bull crap, and everybody knows it. It's great to see Mark Levin, who I dig, and others completely agree with us. And as we've stated, we just want this president to do great things.

don't worry about all the other stuff and just be careful what you say we had to deal with four years of bull crap from Biden on everything on everything the border secure inflation's transitory I cut the deficit my family didn't do anything wrong so Trump has these great economic policies of low taxes less regulations stop the yes. And I would say that to his face to help him out. You don't need to say that. It's not true.

In case you don't know, Spirit Airlines, we segue, is no longer a stock, just letting you know. Zero. As John Vernon said, an animal house, 0.0. And I gather they're going to get bought. I think they're out of bankruptcy now, but I think they'll get bought.

I didn't mention yesterday, but I'll do it today. Forever, I've been telling you that there'll be no ending ceasefire with these scumbag pieces of crap, animalistic, get them off the face of the earth, depraved lunatic, terrorists. we find out they choked and smothered a four-month-old baby and the brother that was three or four and then try to blame it on Israel. They supposedly put the mom in a casket. It wasn't even her. They paraded them around like they won the Stanley Cup.

And then I keep hearing about the people, people of Palestine, they were celebrating the deaths of an infant. Did you see it? Did you watch the video? They can take the two-state solution and kiss my arse. And the only way this is going to end is if Israel eradicates the last one of them. Do you see what they unfortunately do to their children? they indoctrinate them from day one into being terrorists themselves. Did you see that?

Did you see that? Oh, and by the way, they all look fit as a fiddle. They were telling us how they were starved there. They looked in pretty good shape to me. There's a reason why all the other Arab nations will not allow any of them in. because they know depravity. Nations, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan and Egypt, they've had enough of the terrorists.

They won't go near them. They don't want them at all. What a bunch of sick, twisted cowards. Do you know, on that October 7th, if they didn't have weapons, the Israeli women were to kick their asses, you know where we stand. And yes, it does matter. Because Israel is a modern miracle, a great democracy, on a sliver of land in the Middle East, up against water,

with terror on a couple of their sides, north and south. And when I was there the first time, six times I was in bomb shelters. missiles over my head taken out by the Iron Dome. Imagine if you lived in New York City and across the Hudson and Jersey in Weehawken or Hoboken, they were lobbing missiles over your head.

That's what Israel was going through. And you know how they answered it? They didn't. They just took it out with the Iron Dome. These terrorists, they don't know what they're in for. Unfortunately, this is not the end. it's just the beginning. But fortunately, the good guys are going to win.

And a great democracy in the Middle East will last, and Arab nations will move forward. You wouldn't believe the United Arab Emirates. What a magnificent place of business. They realized Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Dubai, they realized, they get it, we'll keep informed. big time informed and if you have a chance you may want to

check out the little video of them celebrating an infant's death at their own hands I'd love to get in the room with a couple of them close the door and that's our little story on the

Middle East today I wish I'd better news on the markets We'll be doing a couple of webcasts for the peeps this weekend. The first one's going to be the uh-oh. We do this whole webcast on the bad. And as the bad picks up, they'll let webcast last longer. Yay. That all said, you have a great weekend drive carefully.

If you see me on the turnpike, go slow. And when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well.

Have a great evening. Serenity now. Good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.