Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE CRAPPY WEEK IN REVIEW [04.12.2024]

Episode Date: April 12, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Friday.

It's April something or other, 2004. for and we're here to talk about everything that affects you and your money in the markets. By the way, it's the 12th of April. And in case you don't know, it's pretty much serious talk on you, everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, all the other stuff we talk about. Today in particular, we're going to get a little bit on the movie-specific side. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at gary k.com we'll also post it on our twitter feed which is now x and if you don't

follow us on x you probably should and if you want to email us all we want you to do is be nice and we're going to stop dead niche tracks here so for the first few minutes of the show we're just going to be descriptive and we'll stop where we want to do a little explanation, a rough day in the market. The Dow has been underperforming. Yesterday, the NASDAQ was up 200 and something the Dow was down to. And we loved the NASDAQ action yesterday. And they just gapped it down today.

There's talk of Iran and, you know, doing something to Israel. Who knows what reasons are we don't really, well, we care, of course. But when all is set and done, it's what the markets are. doing. That matters most to us in every way, every shape, every form. So at the close today, just some things that I wrote down. We'll start with number one in one second. J.P. Morgan reported earnings. J.P. Morgan, it is not arguable. It is pretty much the most important. important big bank out there was down $12.45 on a 281% increase in volume as it cracked the all-important 50-day moving average and gave back everything since mid-February. J.P. Morgan. Bear with me.

which is an exchange traded fund for the big banks. For the first time since November, broke below the 50-day moving average. Now, keep in mind, the 50-day has been ascending, so it's breaking it at much higher levels than last November, of course, but still did that off of J.P. Morgan. BlackRock, very important investment company. Huge investment company.

Reported earnings in the first bar hit a high of 803, up $17, finished down almost $23, firmly below the 50-day moving average, and has taken out the last six months. volume 152% better than normal you get where I'm going right now the transports well they have not broken what I would call the 15,000 to 152 to 153 but nice little rolling over this week you know what I mean by a rolling over it just means you went to a point couldn't get a and started rolling over. That's the best way I can explain it. Retail, we look at the RTH and the XRT,

both breaking the 50-day moving average, with some retail stocks have melted down. And when we use retail, we'll include a Lulu Lemon, which is crashed. What? Lulu Lemon, I just went into the, the store and was busy. Well, the stock was 481 when they made some announcement on earnings.

481 to 336. I can go through other retail, but I think that really does it. Well, I'll do one more. How about Decker's? Decker's been strong. You know the Ugg Boots. They cracked it this week for a good 70 points. 7, 8%.

Advanced declines today. On top of some weakening advanced decline figures over the last couple of weeks, 788 up, 3260 down on the NASDAQ, on the New York. 868 up, 3217 down. That's the NASDAQ. The Dow broke the 50-day days ago. Deepens. The S&P finished right at the 50-day, but may I state for the record, that looks like it's ready, being held up by maybe oils and other things.

The Russell 2000 finished at 2000. After teasing some better. The IWM, which represents, broke below the $200 mark, which was support. The EFA Index, EFA, go look it up, breaks the 50-day. Japan, EWJ, breaks below the 50-day. China, tried, never got going. Look like it was rolling over. Emerging markets, the EEM, big.

rolling over today. The materials, XLB, breaks the trend to the downside. The XLY below the 50 day. Now that makes me stop to explain. Oh, the software IGV, we also know that. Now, just remember, very important. When we do this exercise for you, we are letting you know up front, we have no idea how long it lasts, how far it goes. But you need to know that 50-day moving average is of vital. Yeah, of vital. It's the physicality of it. It's very simplistic in that when price is below it, you have lost your ascension. Doesn't mean you're going to get

creamed, but you lost the ability to ascend and gives you the potential to worsen. In the last couple of months, a bazillion amount of names, especially we named them for you in software, have broken that area and have been hit pretty hard. Lululemon, one of them, in the retail front. The Dow, as I mentioned, this 30-names. and unfortunately there's a few that are getting smoked and J.P. Morgan definitively was no help on today. The junk bonds broke below the 50 day and is touching very important support. The consumer staples broke the 50 day. Consumer Staples. The Regional Bank,

already in bad shape. You know that, right? And then some names. Without naming them because I'm going to mention one, and I'm not going to mention the name, but it's been one of these strong stocks, stronger. In computer networking, got downgraded today, and they hit it for $25 breaking the whole trend.

On a downgrade. Remember, all we're kind of doing right here is just adding up a little bit of the weight of the evidence, we call it. Up next, we'll do a little more weight of the evidence. And whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. J. Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication.

We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. Reach for Vital Proteins, Collagen and Protein Shake and Chocolate. With 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides, it helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints in a smooth, ready-to-drink shake.

So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success. Vital Proteins. Stay Vital. Visit VitalProtines.com to get started. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast.

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specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be,

call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 885-59. That's 888-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital, Capital, management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. And then we do our

scans. So let's simplify as we've done many times in the past. Imagine if they were just 100 stocks in the market, just 100. And let's say there were 10 sectors, 10 stocks each, whatever. And they all have the same weighting. In other words, there's 100 stocks, each or 1%. There's no overweighing of any name. And let's assume we know what uptrends look like. let's assume that and let's assume 100 stocks were in a trending uptrend.

We're not talking vertical. Let's call it from, let's see, 8 p.m. up to 2 and everything's going fine and dandy. Kind of like the S&P has been doing since November. and then all of a sudden they stop going up. They're not going down, but they stop going up. And every one of them. And they flatten out. Well, there's nothing wrong with that.

That's okay, right? You go up, you flatten out. The problem is you are on a certain trajectory. You can draw a line. And then what happens if all of a sudden those same hundred take a step down? Well, not the biggest of deals. It just tells us, hey, it's had a good run. It needs to rest.

It needs to relax. All is well. But then takes a second step down. And then when we consider to be important names like a JP Morgan in there breaks down. and that's just one name. What does that mean for markets? Well, that's how we measure them. And of course, it's not that simplistic.

There's 200 sectors, sub-sectors, there's overweighing, there's underweighting, a Microsoft and Apple, one-two in the NASDAQ 100 make up, I believe, 16% of it, while a bunch of names make up 1%. So if they move, they'll affect the indices a little bit more. I did a webcast earlier today because we're traveling tonight, and all I did was show one of my screens to our peeps. And let me explain this screen to you, and we're assuming I know what an uptrend and a downtrend looks like.

Let's assume we know what something breaking down looks like. Well, I can safely tell you a couple of hundred names over the past 60 days. in software and tech, not the big guys, but the lesser in size. So this screen that was empty at the bottom is full now of Snapchat, Snowflake, Shopify, Duolingo, Elf, Expedia, Seagate Tech, Wix, Zebrae Tech, ZeeC, scale, Palo Alto Networks, Mercado Libre, Accum, you get my point? So just letting you know, fewer and fewer, less and less, we've been highlighting for you here the software stocks. On the other end, what have we been telling you, gold strong, oil strong, some commodity

strong. Big tech, boy, I loved yesterday's action. in big tech and the market just gave big tech a certain finger today to yesterday welcome to the world news china gave the u.s. semiconductor business that same finger which does not help but we don't rationalize why we're just letting you know more deterioration today yesterday with the NASDAQ 100 up remember what we told you advanced declines were pitiful NASDAQ was up 270 or something like that. NASDAQ, the advanced declines with 2117.

And most importantly, as I'm scanning right now, more and more names under the 50 day, fewer and fewer above, more and more names without the ability to ascend, fewer names above. And now we're going to gauge and measure as we go into earning season, which by the way was not friendly to the financials today, and see what comes out of it.

Now oils and gold. Gold was again hot today. The GLD today hit 225 but closed at 217 on gargantuan volume. What happened? Too far, too fast, somewhat akin. to what happened with Nvidia and other semis on March 8th. Is it the end of the move? I'm going to guess no.

Is it probably a place where it's going to have trouble? Probably, yes. And I must tell you, the inquiries on gold that I've been getting over the last three days had picked up, should I own some gold, should I own some gold, should I buy some gold, should I buy some gold? And that was after a move, welcome to how the world works. And of course, Barron's reports today they're bullish on gold. Yes, the GLD goes from 194 to 225, and now Barron's is bullish. Remember what Barron's is.

It's just the newspaper. So we'll see how it plays out. Just a very rough day. The socks sitting right on the 50 day. at the close today. The S&P, sitting right at the 50 day at the close today. The NASDAQ?

Yeah, a little bit better than the 50 day. The NASDAQ 100, right on the 50 day today. We'll see what Monday brings. Simple as that. Failed breakouts also. I noticed Marriott, the hotel breaking out yesterday, down seven to half today. The market.

Just remember. The market influences all. For the most part, that influences the sectors and the sectors influence the stocks in that sector. Or vice versa. Interesting enough, yields were way down today.

Flight to safety. Up next. More on this, that, and the other thing and whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one to only invest. I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.

In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where oh yeah you know I just I have a stomachache every day or I'm constantly feeling like gassy

and all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut you should be living with so that's when we deep dive we deep dive into your medication we deep dive into your OTC medication and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change

hear the full conversation plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. Reach for vital proteins, collagen and protein shake and chocolate with 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides. It helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints in a smooth, ready-to-drink shake, so your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success.

Vital Proteins. Stay vital. Visit VitalProtene's.com to get started. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Cashflow crunch? OnDak's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover, seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly. and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow.

Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by on deck or Celtic Bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota all loans an amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So as I mentioned to you, yields were actually down today and the dollar was up today. Huh. Usually they go hand in hand.

My theme, my thesis on that. Yeah, my thesis. Flight to safety. When all hell breaks loose around the globe, usually the dollar gets a bid. Amazingly so, considering the miscreants that are running our country. and they'll buy up our bonds. U.S. government bonds, they always pay, they always pay. Don't worry, we're going to $50 trillion of debt, they always pay.

So that's what I think happens. They're normally, market likes lower rates. Not today. Now, I'm getting emails what happens if Iran... Here's my stupid, silly foreign policy guess. There is no way. This is my guess. There's no way Iran themselves are going to be lobbing missiles into Israel.

My guess is they're going to do something with the computer type stuff or hacking or, you know, proxy this or that? Because Iran knows Israel ain't screwing around anymore. Israel's done. They've had enough. What happened on October 7th, that ain't going away. And in case you don't know, it's 130 hostages. And you know what, Hamas, those animals are intimating. There's not 130 left.

They murdered a bunch of them. So we give no cover to the ass clowns running around. Well, you know, Hamas is just the fence. Go screw. We are not telling you the market's going to get trashed. we are not telling you the market's going into a bare market we are not telling you you're going to get bludgeoned we're telling you the market's under pressure here it's worsening it's deepening and if the s&p NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 takes out the and the SOX takes out the 50 day deepens more and keep in mind underneath that

is that some big names are holding it up. And again, the advanced declines today were miserable. New highs, new lows, yuck. I do not know if today is reaction to whatever Iran may or may not do. And the fact is they haven't done anything yet. And that's that. Of note of what's going on, in case you don't know. And just to give you an idea what we're dealing with,

There's this congressional budget office. The CBO, they always are telling us what things are going to be and the numbers. Just so you know, in May of 23, they projected the debt increase in this year of 24 to be $1.74 trillion. How can that be, Joe Biden saying he's lowering the debt. Anyway, in June of 23, they changed that to $1.988. The trajectory now. Three trillion debt this year by Joe Biden. It should be criminal.

He should be arrested. He should be impeached. Gary, that's hyperbole. No, I believe there should be a law in the books. The latest. Joe Biden said today he's relieving another $7 billion of student loans. He's relieving, and of course it is us, so it's a lie. What pisses me off more than anything?

Do you know what he did during his little speech today? For the blacks, for the blacks, for the blacks. Have you seen this poll numbers in the black community? They've been heading south. As we have told you, Jefferson has warned us of Marxist control freaks that will buy off people in order to get their vote. this misery is doing in plain sight. But what he doesn't realize,

and I'm pretty sure I'm right on this. See, people like Biden are very good at, you're black, you're white, you're white, you're black. You're Hispanic. You're this, you're that. And you're there because of this, and you're there because of that. what this bozo that has never been in the business world doesn't realize blacks, whites, Hispanics,

every race creed in color. You know what everybody wants? Peace, harmony, and success defined by themselves. You know what everybody wants? To be healthy, to be wealthy, to be able not to have to depend on others. Joe Biden and his ilk, vote for me. Don't worry. I'll take care of you. They're in lies. And what I am seeing in some of these communities now is they've had enough of the BS. They've had enough of, oh, just give me a check. You know what they're doing? They're creating

businesses, blacks, Hispanics, every race creed color. They're creating. They're entrepreneurs. they get it. And you know what else they get? They don't need control freaks in D.C. They can do it for themselves. And the big enemy of people like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and AOC and the rest of these control freaks,

their biggest enemy is success. Because those that are successful and are moving up in life and paying taxes and are philanthropic and are taken vacations and enjoying themselves don't need these Marxist control freaks that have never created a dime of wealth for anybody except for themselves so Joe Biden can continue to keep on trying to buy the votes I think the game's up not a hundred percent but a percentage of and it's going to continue that way.

And I see it. When I meet with the kids and the parents from the Boys and Girls Clubs of Central Florida, they just want to do great things. Joe Biden, I'll cut your check. Another $7 billion of our tax dollars were handed out to people today that are now breaking contract law because the president is allowing it. How we got here beats the hell out of it. me. That's the best way I can put it. I don't know how the hell we got here where a president

can move money around. Something's got to change. I don't know how we got here that he's going to run a $3 trillion deficit this year. Something's got to change. Well, I guess elections have consequences. We'll either have him or Donald Trump. Yippe. Yippee. What else do I got for you today? I was just sent this. U.S. states with the highest state income tax. Just letting you know. 13.3 in California, 11, Hawaii, 10.9, New York.

By the way, New York City is local also. 10.75, Jersey, 9.9.9, Oregon, 9.85, Minnesota, 9, Massachusetts. 8.75, Vermont, 7.65, Wisconsin, 7.15, Maine. Just letting you know. And just so you know, California's still running a gargantuan budget deficit. Up next, commodities. We'll have that for you. And much more.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CBS Pharmacists. Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach egg every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know,

I just, I have a stomachache every day or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. for Vital Proteins, Collagen and Protein Shake and Chocolate with 30 grams of protein and 10 grams

of collagen peptides. It helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints in a smooth, ready-to-drink shake, so your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success. Vital Proteins, stay vital. Visit VitalProtines.com to get started. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. OnDEC is built to back small businesses, like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team or bridging cash flow gaps. OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau

and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews. OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondac.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank. On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to...

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One. Choose, ready, go. In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Kaltba. So, as usual, as I take a sip, by the way, we are now in April. I've had three alcoholic drinks this year.

Last year, I think I had six or five. So I'm actually ahead of last year. We say that because, man, we just know a lot of people that drink a lot. To me, it's one of the most overrated things out there. One of the most overrated things. You know, when I changed, I told the story. In college, true story. came out of this place called penrods in Tampa, Florida, went to USF.

And I don't know what I drank, but at five in the morning, next to my car in a parking lot, with my face in a puddle, I woke up. And I said, yeah, I think I'm done. That's what happened. True story. Tell your kids that story. Never be out of control. Always be in control.

I have to tell you that when I visited my sons at Florida State University, and this is not just Florida State, we went to one of these, not going to name the place, the girls were blank-faced, drunk, a lot of them, and had no idea where they even were. And I'm thinking to myself, man, if I'm a parent and I was there. So from me to you, parents, let your kids know it's not that cool. And if they have to drink or want to drink, moderation. Big time moderation. Yeah, I'm a little bit preachy. I bring this up because just some things I've seen recently. And we believe in telling you about the things

we see sometimes drinking to excess moey bad and of course that goes for anything that plays with your brain at night yeah I think I've had

three or four I was just at this one of the best restaurants I've ever been at my life called the grill in New York City it's owned by this major group or something. They have these other great restaurants. Wow. So I had a little red wine.

My big alcohol for the day. If you ever have a chance in New York City, the place is called the grill. Wow. Really good. What else do I got for you today? As we've been covering, Trump stock now down to 32 and change. The day we warned you wasn't the high because of the high because of that at a big reversal day, the stock had closed that day at about 66, opened at 72. It's 32. We've gotten a little blowback from people when we said it's worth a dollar, and we just answer them with the numbers, and they don't answer back. And as we've said to you, we would say it about anything else out there based on the facts and the numbers, and we've done it with hundreds of stocks in the past that had asinine, assort, 10, ass 11 valuations because of froth,

speculation, whatever news. There's been a bunch of AI stocks recently that have crashed. You may not know this, but there were a bunch of what we call pretenders. Oh, we're AI. No, you're not. No, we're AI. No, you're not. Oh, we're going to be big in AI. Oh, no, you're not. And I'm looking at one that just went from 10 to quarter down to 4.30 in four weeks. That was touted like you wouldn't believe by a couple of miscreants on TV. You know what, 10 to quarter down to $4.38 in four weeks? You can add that up.

So we want you to be careful. We did a whole dissertation the other day on managing risk. and a lot of that came from what we're seeing in the market, as well as our exact line, our exact line on the Trump stock. It was 10 in the morning on a Thursday, the 28th. The stock was still 68th, and I was asked about it, and you know how I had to start out by saying, We're not being political, but do not own this in a bare market.

In a bull market, froth can stay up. It can even go higher. And as I said to you, who knows, maybe it goes to 200. But in a bad market, forget it, the curtains come down. And the poster child of the last few years is Rivian that we warned in November of 21. I couldn't believe what they were able to do, get it to a $170 billion market cap with no sales, almost reaching the market cap of GM in Ford, even though they have 260 billion of sales. We said it was a $10 stock.

It's nine, and they have problems. They have to raise money now. Sales are up, but if you build a car and lose it, lose it. a few thousand every time you sell one, what are you in business for? So these are the things we want to get across to you. Manage your risk. Get some knowledge, just like we did yesterday on credit card mortgage rates. Your responsibility. All right, you all have a great weekend. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Stay well, be well.

have a great one. Just remember, we're just trying to help. Good night, all. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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