Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE DEBT [07.09.2024]
Episode Date: July 9, 2024garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Kalbaum, your host day.
Thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is, what, the 9th of July, 2024.
And in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything to affect you.
We do the markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, your industry, taxes, deficit, spending, scam, shams, corruption, and the election.
And we do it with no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive.
We are looking for people that believe in three words.
We the people, not we the government, not we the taxes, rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, control, giveaways, and all that crap.
that we have been receiving.
Today on the show.
Well, we'll go through the markets.
Quieter on the indices,
but as we state,
a lot of jello moving on the plate
and what we try to do here,
most importantly,
what not to be in.
And we can tell you flat out,
there's a lot not to be in.
How do we know?
We scan 1,500,
to 2,000 stocks a day, 200 sectors, every country, every commodity, just to stay a little bit
ahead of the game, and that's all we got to do. Define the big up trends, define the big
downtrends, define the topes, define the bottoms. Currently, you know what's topping out badly?
And we've been telling you, the restaurants, any of the strong restaurants have top.
out. They got Chipotle after the 50 for one stock split. They just got Domino's pizza. They broke that down. And the strongest names Brinker International, they're breaking that down. And the two that have held up, Texas Roadhouse Wing Stop, they're coming after them. Oh yeah, and Kava. That one topped today. So there's an area to avoid new commitments. That's what we try to do. We've been telling you for how many months stay away from the transports.
rails, truckers, and the like.
And what have been weak?
The transports.
And as we always say, we will let you know if we think things are changing.
In the transports, they have not changed.
Oh, by the way, that includes the airlines also,
even though they've been telling you how great the airlines are doing.
How busy.
I saw, what was it?
I woke up today.
TSA had the strongest numbers.
ever on Sunday. So how are the airlines, many of them in deep, bare markets? Answer is,
beats the heck out of me. We just know how to read the tape. That's what we do. And of course,
we're covering the election. I must tell you, it was a little bit quieter today, but more
the same going on. You had a couple of Democrats who wanted Biden out now backing away from
that. You have others showing up.
What I find the most interesting is the celebrities.
And I don't know if we talk about them enough because, and listen, God bless them.
I think it's magnificent that these celebrities are living in $20 million homes.
I don't begrudge success.
I don't begrudge wealth.
I begrudged doofuses. I don't care how much money they have. And I just noticed in the last few months
a few things about these celebrities. Do you remember when the whole Black Lives Matters thing
was really loud and oh, they were out. They were doing all kinds of commercials. Do you remember
the woman thing when Harvey Weinstein was found out to be one big gigantic rapist. And of course,
a lot of these celebrities knew about it, never said a word. Well, then they started doing
commercials where they stood up and they had these signs about women and all that, which, by the
way, is supposed to be normal. You don't need to be holding up a sign that all women should be
respected and not raped. Duh. I haven't noticed any of them really doing any
thing about
kidnapped Jews
kidnapped Israelis
babies
burned to a crisp
put in ovens
murder
mayhem
have you seen any of that I haven't
and I bring this up because of my latest
all of a sudden
they're now geniuses
on Joe Biden
and you know the
most of them are lefties, and do you notice that some of them who have stayed quiet for three years,
said nothing, nothing about, I don't know, 9, 10 million illegals coming in where we don't know where they are?
Do you remember these same people when Trump was president, and you had that issue with children being separated from families?
and they complain very loud vociferously.
Trump was Hitler.
Have you noticed anything, any of them coming out about all the families that have been separated over the last three years?
Do you know how many kids have been separated from their families?
A bazillion!
Have you noticed they haven't talked about, you saw where like 80 people in the back of a truck died?
I haven't seen that either.
They just pick and choose.
And my favorite one now is they're coming out.
Joe Biden's got to go.
All geniuses.
I saw what's his name on the late night show.
I don't know what the guy, Colbert, who would bring Biden on to his show and just kisses our ass.
I mean, forget it.
Just kiss his butt.
Don't worry about $2 trillion year deficits.
Massive illegals coming in.
We don't even know who they are.
admittedly, people dying, crossing the borders, Afghanistan.
We're the women, by the way, you're back in the dark age, is nothing.
Oh, Colbert is out saying, oh, Mr. President, we love you, but you have to go.
All of a sudden, again, we don't mind their wealth.
Other people do.
We don't mind their celebrity.
Other people do.
And make fun of it.
I don't.
I think success is great.
I love it.
I hate Dufus.
And boy, oh boy, are they dofuses?
Just wanted to let you know.
Not much happened today.
I have to hand it to President Biden.
I'm going to give him a little compliment.
He is basically giving the middle finger to anybody who is against him.
And there's been a bunch of Democrats.
And the New York Times is out.
They ran three op eds that Joe Biden must stand down.
The New York Times, who of course hates Trump,
must stand down.
Anyway, it's quite interesting to watch.
May I state for the record.
It's kind of weird to watch.
My humanity in me wants good health for President Biden.
You know what I think of his policies.
it's on the outside looking at all these reactions by a bunch of biased miseries
I don't even know where to go but it is quite and by the way it will matter
I'm sure you know this right by the way I'll just finish speaking of the New York Times
and how sickening and bias they are I've seen terrorists who pass away
and the headline would be,
oh, the Syrian so-and-so passes away,
not the Syrian terrorist.
James Imhoff, is a senator from Oklahoma,
who retired.
He died at the age of 89.
He's a Republican.
You know how you know he's a publican?
This is the headline from the New York Times.
James Inhoff, the senator who denied climate change,
dies at 89.
That's how they present.
a senator who denies climate change.
It's, what can I tell you?
We should set up a show just based on ripping these biased idiots that refuse to do the job of what we say the journalists should do,
and that is defend the citizenry by taking on the powerful and the decision makers,
but no, it's a pick and choose thing.
And that's how you get the $35 trillion of debt.
That's how you get to, by the way, the new famous thing is a bunch of economists are coming out saying,
don't worry about the debt going of $56 trillion because the percentage of GDP is not so bad.
Here's my answer to those paid off economists.
Up yours.
Go screw.
You lion sacks.
And I'd say it to their face, of course.
remember every time we send government a buck they're spending two to three now and the economists are in the
tank up next we segue to the markets lots of it this is the one only investors edge
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Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit.
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Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch
than competing brands,
and their innovative horizontal
quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold,
there are thousands of men out there
more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today
for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.
Tommy John, comfort perfected.
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Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
Welcome once again to Investors Edge.
And again, I am not kidding when I tell you they have these economists out there.
Just so you know what an economist is, it's supposed to be somebody that talks plain English
and tells you right, wrong, and different.
And they're claiming that $2 trillion a year deficit you shouldn't really worry about.
And that we're going to go from 35 to $56 trillion in 10 years.
by the way, which means $65 to $70 trillion,
don't worry because the percentage of GDP.
Think about that.
Don't worry that a trillion of our tax dollars
each year right now are going towards interest
and not what government's supposed to spend money on.
Don't worry.
Every one of those economists should be out of business.
They're like the Kmart.
They're worse than Kmart of the retail.
business, a percentage GDP. Just so you know, we're the GDP. We keep growing and they keep
growing bigger, but they don't care. Do you know why? Because these economists are in hopes they're
going to be part of the government. Get paid, get grants, do studies, this, that, and the other thing.
That's why we don't even, we never, ever, we don't believe any of the studies that come out of the
scientists right now on climate change on any of this other stuff why what they do is they're told
come up with this with the with the answer that we need and then fit in how you got there just remember
that do not forget that decades ago it was global cooling and if you didn't believe them you
suck global cooling and they told us the pollution was going to
to block out the sun and its global cooling.
And then it heated up, so they changed it to global warming.
And then there was a couple of years where there's blizzards around the world.
The worst winters in ages, they got into a room.
They met with advertising agencies.
Hey, we're screwed.
How do we scam and con the world?
We couldn't do it with global cooling.
We can't do it with global warming.
How about climate change?
Ooh, look at that.
Look at that.
Climate change.
If it's too hot, it's climate change.
If it's too cold.
We can't lose.
And that's what they did.
And it's all about your money.
$380 billion of our tax dollars was given to John Podesta,
a democratic hack,
to dole out for climate.
Anybody ask Biden where that money is?
380 billion.
Do you know they spent $7 billion on charging stations?
Seven charging stations out there.
Boudajed was asked about it.
Well, it takes time.
You know what I would say to Buttigieg?
Screw you!
It takes time.
Give me the $7 billion.
I'll walk around communities and fix them up.
They just don't care.
Joe Biden was at a black church this week.
Do you know why?
Because his poll numbers from the black community are heading south.
Big time.
So I'm going to go to a black church.
This is what these people do.
And by the way, we're not talking one party here.
Got the $35 trillion by both.
It's sickening.
And you know what they are?
They're like a comedy act, but it's not comedy because we're the victims.
So I just want to let you know with everything that's going on right now,
everything we're reading about,
$6 to $7 billion was added to our debt today,
and we'll do the same tomorrow and grows a little bit every day.
Just letting you know.
They're spending each day $6 to $7 billion more than they are supposed to.
Just want to make sure you know that.
we move on so the indices didn't do much today but another day we're 16 up 24 down on the new york
18 up 23 down on the nasdaq that's number one so the advanced decline's not great number two
the doubt was only down 52 the s&p was up for the nasdaq 25 NASDAQ up 13 not a lot but as you know
we're watching very closely.
What we have been telling you is when the market's very narrow,
if what's not working worsens,
eventually they usually get the big strength.
So we're watching midcaps,
and we're just letting you know it's teetering on the ledge.
We're watching small caps, just letting you know,
not necessarily teetting around the ledge,
but acting like the south end of a northbound jackass.
Just want to let you know the transports, again,
today, very weak, and topping out at a lower high and at moving averages that have been coming down.
Just want to let you know, commodity stocks acting poorly. Just want to let you know, oils continue to
act poorly. Just want to let you know, rails and truckers and the caterpillar deer farm machinery
acting poorly. Just want to let you know, restaurants. For a while, there were a few. You know,
restaurants, stocks acting, well, they're getting all of them now. The restaurants just want to let
you know, as we said, the airlines, how would the airlines go in and bear markets? How is that
possible? I don't know. I just know they are. Just want to let you know that the economically
sensitive screen that I have right here sitting right in front of me shows one of the most important
names United Rentals, below the 50-day moving average, and nearing another ledge.
I already mentioned Caterpillar and Deer.
How about Dow chemical that's in the Dow that's now bare market?
Chemicals.
And I can go on.
And we're saying all this because these are areas we've been telling you to stay away from.
And just letting you know, they're not getting better.
Some aren't worsening, but they're not getting better.
But what continues is the AI, though some of them got hit today, what continues is select big tech.
It's not smaller tech.
I have a screen to my left of mid to smaller tech, and some of them were big leaders in 21 that
topped out 21-22 that never came back in software and things like that.
They were 95% red today.
That's not great.
What else is strong?
Big banks.
They got something from the Fed today that eased up on them.
That helps into earnings.
We'll discuss that up next and much more.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
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and their innovative horizontal quick-draw-fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.
Tommy John, comfort perfected.
is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?
Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on its feet.
Here, he's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Welcome once again to Investors Edge.
So just letting you know we can't tell you something's in a bare market if it's not.
And let's assume we know what it's like.
We can't tell you that Domino's Pizza was a strong restaurant and it's crumbling.
If it's not.
We can't tell you Chipotle was in an uptrend.
and now is in a definable downtrend
if it's not.
We're just giving you the keys to the kingdom here
on what is working and what is not.
And of course, things can always change,
but it kind of hasn't.
And the worry is pretty simple, ladies and gentlemen.
It really is.
Typically, usually, normally,
if more and more areas worsen
and go not into just short-term drops, but intermediate, even worse.
Eventually, they get the things that have held up best.
Eventually.
We don't know what it eventually is, and I can tell you it wasn't today.
KLAC was up eight.
Lamb Research was up 10.
Applied Materials was up five.
Cirrus Logic was up five.
Broadcom was down, I think, I've got to make sure I got this right before I tell you.
Yeah, Broadcom was down $40, but only.
finished down 12 so that's okay it's just a narrow as I mean just the most narrow
tape I have seen in ages which actually makes my job a little bit easier because
I don't have to worry about so many areas now we've also told you that
software has been better but except from Microsoft and a couple of others no big
leadership they're coming after software now
after rallying up some.
So stay too.
We'll be on it.
And we'll know a lot more,
and it's really simplistic.
Number one, if they come after the big leaders.
Number two, we're watching the small and midcaps,
and if it takes out the support levels
that they're kind of sort of hanging around right now,
especially the midcaps,
it tells us the underbelly is weakening.
And then,
And by the way, this is all happening while the economic numbers have been worsening.
I don't care what they tell you.
And just so you know, and this is of import, because we trust them as far as we can throw them.
Every freaking economic number on the jobs gets revised down.
So the headline number comes out.
Everything's great.
Everything's good.
Don't worry.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
and then they come out a few weeks later.
We're going to revise it down 80,000.
The other worry of the last number, a ton of government jobs.
And I'm like, what the hell do we need more government jobs for?
It's certainly aimed for police.
So stay tuned.
We're on it.
We've been very narrow in anything we have done.
The only thing I'm p-oed about is I needed to make.
much bigger positions on a couple of these things that we really put points on the scoreboard on.
But when things are so narrow, you're like, you get a little wary.
And we're getting a lot of, how do I put this?
Our little small sampling that's pretty much worked for us for a very long time,
a lot of people in industry that I speak to, a little bit worried in here about the trend of business.
Again, if anything changes, one way the other, we'll let you know.
We hope things get better.
We don't want them to worsen.
I find it quite instructive, though.
They're coming after the restaurants in a big way.
I know about McDonald's.
And when anybody has to lower prices, that's going to eat into their business and profits and stuff.
and that could affect stock prices, that could be going on.
So stay tuned.
And if you have something to tell us that you think would be of help to us in your industry,
you're seeing something that's standing out in a very big way,
we'd like to hear from you.
We're getting a lot of that.
Next.
Wow.
So I offered $250.
We were doing name me.
I don't want to be called Grandpa.
So we asked people, we said, let's have a contest, and we'll do the picking.
We'll do the picking.
I got to tell you, we got, I don't know, we're nearing a thousand emails.
I mean, we're heading towards a thousand in a day.
And I'm getting all kinds of names instead of
grandpa. I don't want to say what's in the lead right now. I want to let it go throughout the
weekend, but keep sending it in. I may have to raise the number from 250 because you're all being
very kind. I just don't want to be, I'm not a grandpa. If you saw my biceps and triceps,
you would know I'm not a grandpa. Now, I didn't even know this, but Saba is Israel for a grandfather.
Somebody sent that to me. I didn't even know that.
I got to tell you somebody sent me G-pop.
Hmm. That's interesting.
G-B. My initials of G-B-K.
Hey, G-B. I don't mind that one.
Just don't feel like a grandpa.
You know why? Everybody else is.
So come up with, I got a lot of pa-paws.
I got a lot of pop-pops.
And nobody was nasty.
I was expecting somebody to write it and say something not so good.
Not one.
Anyway, that's the contest.
We'll let it run for the rest of the week.
And we'll come up with...
And if we pick one that has a few, we'll pick a name out of the hat.
Anyway, baby doing well, mommy doing well, daddy doing well.
Clear lack of sleep on their part.
I'm flying out tomorrow night.
Hopefully I'm better.
You ever get one of these, whatever, and you just can't get rid of it?
I have one of these can't get rid of, I don't know, it's not the flu, it's not, you know, you get the chest and the throat and the nose and all that.
I'm in the midst of one right now, but we're still flying out tomorrow.
I got to see the kid.
And I got to tell you, he's a good-looking kid too.
I think he's going to be a bruiser.
Anyway, it's a happy time in the Kaltbaum clan right now.
And for all the grandpas out there, you know, I'm feeling what you've been feeling.
And that's a little bit of that.
Segwaying again, the Big Banks, acting great.
I mentioned earlier the Fed is pulling off doing something where they have, don't have to show less.
capital, more capital, so the stocks are going up, but they report Friday, Monday, and
Tuesday.
And I get asked all the time about buying before earnings, we don't.
If we don't own something and you're within a week, we just don't.
We're not smart enough.
We don't want to even tempt fate.
And I can tell you, there are plenty of times we didn't buy something we would have.
And they skyrocket, and there are plenty of times that they get blasted to the downside.
So it's kind of like even Stephen, no biggie as they say.
By the way, I'm sitting here right now scanning the market as I'm talking to.
Man, oh man, there is just a lot of broken stuff.
I have a sneaking suspicion.
We're going to stay narrow.
and let's hope things pretty much hold up
but just a big wow
now I mentioned to you Apple
we own Apple
simple reason
Apple broke out of an 11 month trading range on very heavy volume
above the big number 200
we're making some pretty good hay
I think we're up like 13% in a matter of a month
but I also said to you
something's up
I'm going to explain that up next.
On this, the one only investor's edge.
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The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
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and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first.
order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium
benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer
to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One
Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See
Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a
rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't
need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now,
I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is
Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes
it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the
next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast
might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because
if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the Gester's Edge.
With Gary Culpa.
So, we own Apple right now,
even though we believe the valuation is ridiculous.
Huh?
How can you do that?
Well, we have this little theory on action in the market,
is you never ignore.
a big growth name or a big institutionally loved name, like an Apple, that breaks out of range
on very heavy volume. And of course, there's this AI component to it. But I will state for the
record. As long as Apple acts well, we'll stick with it. If things change, I deal with it. But I got
sent something yesterday that Apple is now, and I knew this already, but Apple's trading it
35 times earnings. It also says the 10-year average of Apple, its price earnings multiple is 22,
way above now, and their growth rate is much slower now. Huh. Could AI be that important?
Especially when you hear that 10-year average, I remember for years, Apple would trade it 15 times earnings, not 22.
And I'm going to have to look back on that. Let me go further.
Price-to-sales ratio is it 9.3 right now, 9.3 times sales, its 10-year average is 5.
On a sales ratio basis, Apple is trading almost two times.
How do I own the stock?
And how is the stock going higher?
Well, we're just letting you know the answer is again, one of our main rules.
It's not the news.
It's how things react to the news and how things are.
That's what we're about.
just letting you know
we're stunned
and when we bought it
we you know
bit our tongue
but this AI thing is
I think ruling the day
and when it stops ruling the day
well we'll deal with that
by the way they also have
Apple's EBITDA at
27 times 10 year average
15 times
let me go further
just things that are sent to
me. Small cap stocks now are down 2% on the year, while large caps are up 17%, the biggest
outperformance since 98. What have we been telling you for 18 months, 24 months? Large cap over small
cap. Why? Performance. That's what we follow. That's what we gauge. The ratio of growth stocks
to value stocks in the United States is at the highest level since March 2000, the peak of the dot-com bubble.
Oh, crap.
Now, all that is in our file manager.
We know it.
It's in our file manager.
We'll act on it when the market tells us to.
That's how we look at this.
but those are all facts
those were not opinions
it was sent to us and we checked it out
the
haves and have nots
in this market the chasm
notice the big word
is really the widest we've ever seen
as a whole
and it didn't get
it got more today
lastly
this was sent to me.
And we did checking and we actually already knew this because we've been telling you this.
The number of new homes for sale in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas and other southern region homes
has now spiked to nearly 300,000 homes for sale.
This is the highest level all time.
We have said to you that what we have.
been seeing is a lot of marking down. You only get marked downs when you can't sell or when there's a lot
of competition in selling. Just letting you know what's happening. To what extent we don't know,
but I'm just letting you know in the south in some of these hot areas, it's happening.
We'll keep you informed, we'll keep you on top of it.
But we have now in a situation where it's becoming more of a buyer's market by the day.
And the more that go on the market for sale, the more prices are going to come down in order to move and compete on those sales.
That's how it works.
And it's happening.
I look at Florida cities just about every day at the latest every other day, more and more every day.
More and more prices coming down every day.
Not a bad thing because how much prices has moved up.
We hope it stays that way.
A nice little 10% drop would be just for.
fine from Fantasyland.
But we always
worry about bubbles. Why?
Because all of these
distortions came from
one man.
Mr. Bubble,
Jay Powell, who is outdone
the original Mr. Bubble
Ben Bernanke.
That all said,
you all have a great evening.
Drive carefully. Wish we had an extra hour
tonight. And when you get home, do like we
do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel
better. You will feel better. I promise. I think I'm off TV tomorrow. Not sure. Until tomorrow's same
time. Peace out. Serenity now. Thanks for joining. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary
Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK
That's GaryK
dot com
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