Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Dow Leads Down

Episode Date: January 18, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Wednesday, January 18th, 2020, and we're here to talk about you and everything that affects you. Your job, the economy, the market. the corruption, the D.C. and all that. But we have something much more important to talk about. The word theme comes to mind.

I'm going to start out today. By the way, we are pre-tapping the show. Usually we do it right after the market closed. We are pre-tapping the show. It is 3.44 p.m. The market's going to close in 16 minutes. And I'll get to the numbers in a minute. theme

correlation themes and correlations themes correlations that's about heat when it comes to you the markets and everything else under the sun there has been one

gargantuan theme and one gargantuan correlation since pretty much October, November of 21. It's the theme, the correlation that has kept us guiding you away for brutal bare markets and actually highlighting counter-tren rallies. No, it's not Jay Powell. No.

not what J. Powell says. Not Joe Biden. Not Donald Trump. Not Jay Powell raising rates or lowering rates. Not anything he says. Not anything he does. Moves markets here and there with words. But there's been one direct correlation.

And that has been this. As yields went up, markets went down. Simple as that. Directly. Go look. You don't need me. And sometimes they just stick out.

Like a sore thumb. Like a sore thumb. And when yields would back down during their rally up, markets would bounce. And when we had a good counter-trend rally in the summer, of 22, it was because yields came down. When we got trashed again in December, it's because yields went up. Recently, yields have come down again.

Markets rallied. But the last couple of days, we have to ask the question. Has that direct correlation changed? And we have posed the question to you, and we have made the statement, what if we ever get to the point where yields go down, but market keeps going down? Because I must tell you since November, the only thing markets had ever going for them

were when yields would drop, whether it was for a couple of weeks, a couple of months. And as you know, in October, yields really topped out, and we had a good rally to December. Well, in the last two days, as we close the day, we are now at a new low in yields since the high in October. The 10-year yield most attached to your mortgages has gone from 4.333, yes, 4.333,

to 3.375, a huge drop. Today dropped 1.6. You went from, you went from yesterday, 3.535 to 3375, a huge drop. In the past, that'd be great for the market. As I speak, let me give you the close to the end of the market wrap close to the end of the day market wrap brought to you by investment dash models com that's jim roerback one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either

in or out of the market is proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models dot com with a huge plunging rates as i speak with 11 minutes left dow down 612 s in p 60 nasdaq 126 nasdaq 100 133 and let me tell you the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, have been trying to fight it off all day. Remember yesterday? Dow was down 390 yesterday and the NASDAQ was up. When the NASDAQ was down another 200 today, NASDAQ was not down. It was only two further legs to the downside from the Dow. Did they finally hit the NASDAQ and it's down 125? The semiconductors is hardly down in the last two days,

which has us posing the question. Have we crossed the bridge? And it would not be a good bridge. Have we got to the point where lower yields no longer help the market because the market is looking at the other stuff that we've worried about? Valuations are still high. You know that, right? Taxes are going up.

You know that. The size of government is skyrocketing. You know that we've told you. Earnings are crappy. We told Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs missed buy miles. Savings rates have plunged. Credit card usage has skyrocketed. The economy is 70% the consumer.

So if that is the case, uh-oh. By the way, interest rates on credit cards are at the highest on record. Eclipsing 1985. Let me give you an if. I'm not sure this is good news for the market if we've crossed that bridge. Because the one thing the market had going for it is rates coming down. So the best I can explain to you, crappy day to day. The Dow is down three, as I speak, a thousand points this week.

while the socks is flat just about yeah just about flat NASDAQ didn't want to go down and why would they do better right now why would they have better relative strength well growth does better as yields come down

that can be part of that equation but that's just on a relative basis because if the Dow keeps coming down the S&P keeps coming down not good So that's the story of the last two days. And last week we had great advanced declines yesterday with the Dow down 390. Advanced declines were positive.

Finally, advanced declines having a little trouble today. Not as bad as you would think, but a little bit of trouble today. So just letting you know, and you may want to write that down, because you know we've nailed this. Yields. Direct correlation. and go look forget us

go get a chart of the 10 year yield and overlay it to the NASDAQ better S&P because the NASDAQ's underperformed on this move go look yields down market up yields up market down yields skyrocketed from

the lows last November market cracked so sorry to give you the and be the bearer of bad news but we deal in reality here. Advanced declines were great last week and pretty decent for a Dow 390 yesterday. Yeah, not so great today. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living,

specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559.

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And what once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. Hope you're having a good day. Market sucks today. Not good. and you know the Dow third easy to gauge it's only 30 stocks

and just miserable action on a few names and some real ugly looking tops some of the Dow names I'm traveling tonight so I won't be scanning to later tonight but I kind of sort of know what I'm in the way the transports were up 380 today they're down 50 right now areas we have you had topped while the market route just worsened. What do we tell you? Defense stocks crushed. Medicare stocks, crushed. You know what's interesting though and has me scratching the forehead just a wee bit? Typically, if the market's worried about the economy, you know what's going to hold up

better? Consumer staples. You know, it's getting trashed? Consumer staples. You know, it's getting hurt pretty good. Hurries. Down nine today. What have I told you about Hershey's at Halloween? The bag of the small miniature Hershey bars, the miniatures that used to go for 1099 a year ago. It's 1490 something right now. I'm wondering if the higher prices are crimped sale for the food, drug, tobacco, sold products business. So I wish I'd better news. Oil's bad day today. There are certain oil stocks we look, but on the whole we've been diagnostic. The OIH services better than the big oil, better than the services explorers which have really labored.

And just as I'm looking at my screen, yick. Yick. And we're in the mid-burning season. Goldman yesterday down 24 bucks. Travelers down nine in the Dow on a morning. good. United Health down in 10 today. There are any market didn't lie. I'm just simply asking that one little question. Have the market crossed that bridge? If it has, I'm not so sure that's good news. I'm not so sure that's good news. I want to repeat it. The market has loved on its rallies,

the direct correlation of yields backing down. That's changed the last two days. Yields are up a little bit yesterday, but new relative low with the clothes today. We're on watch. And we're the ones that we tell you, man, we'd advance the coins. It continues.

It didn't stay. And as we go into the close, we are heading towards the lows of the day, a rough day. It's $3.50. We'll give you the final. numbers at 4 p.m. And again, remember the market's about yields, but it's about valuations and earnings also. And one other note, what we tell you yesterday? What have we told you 50

last year? We hate when this fraud speculation on every rally. We see. Oh, that's right. We saw no sales biotex at new highs. We saw the meme stocks, the short-squeeze stocks, rally up. Even bed-bath and beyond. That could be on the verge of bankruptcy. And crypto. We told you yesterday this weekend, emails from people asking about crypto for the time in eons.

Do you know, right? Because crypto went up for five days. They're down pretty big today. That's just another thought. That's in our file manager. If anything changes, we'll let you know. But damn, there's some up and out going out and a lot of crap here. Tomorrow will be another day.

The big change near term. Near term, market not reacting well to a big drop in yields. At the close, Dow, down 614, S&P 62, NASDAQ 138, NASDAQ 100, 146, the SOX 18. and that's actually the low of the day and let me tell you it took a lot to get the socks down today and it took a lot to get the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 down the transports after being up 380 early down 62 and let me repeat the markets of yields

earnings and valuations that's what they're about when all said and done if the more and those earnings and valuation of all kinds of other things. They're based on yields, but they're also based on policy. Corporations, a lot of them there.

Taxes are going up this year. Also to buy back stock. You pay a fee. Joe Biden doesn't like companies buying back their own stock because he's a Marxist, of course. Control freak. That's part of the equation.

There's a reason why we're seeing companies laying off people now. They prepared for too much good for too long. You're seeing a lot of tech companies. And by the way, that's normal. During the pandemic, they had a ramp up, and now the pandemic's over? Less. Why did they ramp up in the pandemic? Well, Amazon.

Delivery is less now. Peloton's an extreme case, of course. DocuSign is an extreme case. Teledoc, an extreme case. So a lot of that going on right now. And again, we wish we had better news. We shall scan late tonight. We have an idea what we're going to see.

And I must tell you, there's some stocks like deer that look ready to break out of range to the upside and now looking to break below the 50-day moving average. when you have a tight range, love and hate are very close. So again, cruddy day, the Dow down 1,0004 points this week. Amazing. Amazing. And when you write your notes tonight, you write your notes saying, Gary is wondering if the bridge has been crossed. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

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See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen,

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America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

We've been also talking about very overbought. The market very overbought. We can promise you it got less overbought in the last two days. We get these readings. And for the life of me, I've read what they account for. They're called oscillators. We don't understand the mechanics of them. we just know at certain numbers historically they're meaningful.

We call them extreme numbers. And we told you coming into this week, it was really off the charts. And it had to work itself off. And it works itself off in time and in price. When we mean time, sometimes it just, you know, market sits around for two, three, weeks, pulls back, controlled, everything good. Sometimes they cheese the market. And that gets the overbought, no longer overbought.

So you had a big drawdown today in overboughtness. Not yesterday, even with the Dow down 390, but today. Let me just say one of the numbers I follow was at 89 at the open today and closed at 49. today. Heading more towards neutral, not oversold. That'd have to go a bunch more. But I just want to repeat the big story today is for a change. Near term. Maybe it doesn't last. Market gave the middle finger to lower rates today and much lower rates. Much, much lower rates. Now, I'm also being told, Bullard You know who he is

He's Jay Powell's mouthpiece At least he used to be maybe less so now He came out and said Something to the effect Of Yields He came out and stated Something else

He came out and stated That the Fed Needs to tighten much more needs to air on the tighter side. Another Fed head named Mester, a Meister, we're not above 5% yet, which I think is going to be needed. What did we tell you? They're morons. They went too far to the upside on easy money.

They'll make a mistake to the downside. Yields are no longer spiking. They are tanking now, yet they're still talking tough. Interesting. We'll see how it plays out. Just remember what we think of these people. Nothing personal. They are the doctor you went to for a broken right arm and the doctor put a cast on your left arm. That's the only good analogy I can come up with. They're that bad. Too far easy, too far tight. Need I say more? Earning season. A bunch more coming out.

and we'll see what the reactions are. Remember what we told you? Remember what we told you? There's going to be bad stocks gap up and good stocks gap down. And we never get in front of earnings. Always have leeway. Goldman? Yesterday?

They have one reputation at earnings season. Blow away Wall Street's estimates to the upside. They blew away Wall Street's estimates to the downside yesterday. today. That's how you get down 24 bucks. We had no idea they missed by a mile. If I was a betting man, and I wouldn't be on that, I would have bet they blew away the number. They did the opposite. So we'll see what's to come. We have no idea what's to come on earnings. We have an idea of guidance on earnings. We just have no idea what the reaction is going to be. Like PNC Bank, a regional bank today that was down 6% on their earnings today

that were down 5% year over year. Or United Health that was down 5 bucks on their earnings report, reversed to be up 14 and finished down 6, and is now down another 15 after that. No way of knowing that crap. Absolutely no way of knowing that. So we sit back and we will watch every earnings report, every reaction. We will scan every earnings report and every reaction.

We know where the important names are. We know the less important names. We know what has an influence. We know what's in sympathy of. And it still ain't easy. The only thing we know in real time today. For now, this second, the market shot the middle finger at a big drop in yields today when for the better part of the last 13, 14 months,

we would have had a good day today in the market off of that drop in yields. I think we've covered the market plenty. That's the thought process as we head into more earning season. In the news, well, as you know, we can't stand any of these people. in D.C. Schumer was out yesterday decrying how the Republicans are going to hurt the economy because they don't want to raise the debt. I'm thinking to myself, Chuck Schumer has been in D.C. and been in the leadership for a good part of it. You ready? The 25 to 26 trillion of a 31 trillion of debt. The nerve of these people, they just don't give a crap. The nerve of these

people to put us in more indebtedness. The nerve, the con. You know, complain about the scheme by this guy from FTX. I don't think there's been ever a greater con than what they're doing in Washington, D.C. Joe Biden raising spending from $4.4 trillion in the last year before COVID to $6 trillion. lying about lowering deficits when we know for a fact that just had to do with the extra spending for COVID that's now coming off. People are bull crap artists.

They're con artists. By the way, I have no problem walking up to Joe Biden and saying it to his face. And I would say, of usual, nothing personal, you're a liar. He's taken the championship belt away from Trump. And that is a high bar to reach and get over. I don't think there was a day that Trump didn't lie. about something they're taunting markets they're taunting the economy federal spending was 1.8 trillion 22 years ago six trillion this year guess where that

money comes from our hide or our debt it ain't their debt it's not their debt it's ours wish I'd better news I still have the greatest of hope and the greatest of optimism on us I still have the greatest of pessimism on them. And they're proving it every day. Up next, other news of the day, I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to overreesome, to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcast. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In other stuff, Barry Manilow was terrific last night. Got to see Barry Maniloh.

I had second row right at the front. He's in the 70s. Put on another great show. By the way, he has a residence at the West hotel in Vegas and he's just doing a little bit of touring around. I've seen him, I think, maybe five or six times now. I first saw him, I believe, in 1980 at Lakeland Civic Center. Great concert last night.

Gone to see Springsteen February 5th here also. I wasn't sure if I was going to go. Tickets are up there in the trees. I said to my, you know, when am I going to see him again? and I realize I'll see him at Hyde Park when I go to Wimbledon like I do every year, and they have these great concerts. This year is going to be Billy Joel, which I'll see for the 19th time, and Bruce Springsteen, but I'm going to go.

The Fishman wants to go, and I never turn down the Fishman, who's now a scratch golfer, by the way. In sad news, as you know, I'm a maniacal professional wrestling fan. I started going before it was fashionable in the 70s. I used to go every Wednesday to Miami Beach Convention Center to see Dusty Roads fight the bad guy each week every Wednesday night. You probably never heard of him, but a gentleman by name of Jay Briscoe. That is his, not his real name, passed away in a bad car accident.

His daughter was with him. They would come back from cheerleading practice. I think one other person died. It was a collision. The person died in the other car. Him and his brother, just an amazing one of the great tag teams of all time, unheralded because a lot of people haven't heard of them because they never went to the WWE.

Used to be WWF. Man, I think it was 38 years old. You never want to see that. you can go look it up and you go look at some of their tag team matches. I mean, they're incredible. Just remember, this is choreograph. I don't know how they choreographed some of this crap. I don't, you know, I'm amazed that more people don't get really, really hurt.

They're on a razor's edge. Anyway, you don't want to see that at a young age. And you know how you know. well respected every one of the greatest wrestlers of all time are out there with their on Twitter and Instagram

talking about him and knowing him and wrestling him and wrestling with him um man oh man I've watched a bunch of their matches not even live I would just go watch them taped.

They were incredible. And it's a darn shame. Not thrilling to see. And nobody makes fun of me anymore on being a wrestling fan. That ended a long time ago. How do we know? 100,000 people are going to show up each day for WrestleMania. They're doing two days.

100,000. I don't know if I'm going to go to WrestleMania, though. not so sure other news in case you don't know they're in Davos now telling us what's good for us jog

Kerry had the grapefruits to say we're here saving the planet it's unbelievable to watch these con artists these charlatans I have other words I can use and yeah there's some other words I actually

can use on radio, I'm not going to use them. You know what I think. You know all these people have been part of the massive debt, deficits, control freakism around the globe, and now they're telling us the saving the world. They're going to stop the hurricanes and the tornadoes and the cold and the heat. I got two words for most of them, and they ain't happy. birthday. They're talking climate change there. It's estimated that 500 to 1,000 private jets flew in to Davos. And they're talking to us about how we have to treat the climate. You know what they're doing right. They're laughing at us and stick in the middle finger right where the sun don't shine to us. I give them no quarter these people, especially a John Kerry, a control freak,

who thinks he's omnipotent and thinks he's a god. And by the way, that's not overreach, that's not hyperbole. Go watch some of his interviews as well as others. And that's the news of the which wish I had better tomorrow I'm flying to New York City tonight to see my sons I will be in studio with Stuart Varney the whole 9 a.m. hour check that out we'll be doing radio show from there also from our office there we call it the office Friday I'll be on with Neil Cavuto in the I believe noon or 1 p.m. hour in studio and hanged and out, and Saturday at 8.15, I will be in front of a big screen TV watching my giants kicking the eagle's butt. That'll be my weekend. And I'll be flying back on Sunday to my

abode in central Florida. Because I don't like cold weather, even though it's been kind of cold here in central Florida also. So until tomorrow, you have a great evening drive carefully, hopefully maybe the market will be better tomorrow, but man, two days in a row. You drive carefully and when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I do promise. Have a great one, everybody. Thanks for joining us. Always appreciative that you would listen. Bye, bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact.

with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X. card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.