Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The end of May week in review [05.30.2025]

Episode Date: May 30, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by our food. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. We close out the month of May in the markets. and in the economy and the news and all that. Hope you're having a good day. Hope you have a good weekend coming up. My Knicks won last night. We go to game six tomorrow, but they got to take out.

They got to beat Indiana tomorrow. Where that's the end of that, down three, two. Just had to bring that up first and foremost. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets. the economy, your job, your industry, debt and deficits, tariffs, and anything else that we feel of import that affects you and everything around you. And as we have stated several thousand times, we never had to do the Fed. We never had to do Washington. But when they started amping up,

the spending, the growth, the rules, the regulations, the fees, the fines, the mandates, the taxes, and all that crap, it was our job. And we'll continue without any agenda, without any ulterior motive, and without any bias. Now, before we get going, a little bit of an eventful day today, let me give out those final, oh, by the way, if you don't get this show in your city, we'll posted at gary k.com will post it on our twitter feed which is now x and if you don't follow us on x you should if you'd like to email us just be nice because we'll be nice back okay somewhat an eventful day today so in case you don't know uh the markets the doubt finished up 54 the smp was flat the nasdaq down 62 the nazdac 100 uh 20 The Sox, though, was down 102.

And may I also state for the record, it was wild swinging day also. At one time today, the NASDAQ hit 18847. Let's see, 18847, that's 153, 253, 253, 26. We were down 325 points. What happened? what do you think happened so we got a tweet from the president

on his social media thing of a bob that he's pissed off at China that they're not coming to the table on a deal they're cheating us they're screwing us and all that stuff and then came out that we were about to do something back to them

on whether it tariffs, sanctions, or whatever, and we drop 325 now points. Excuse me, NASDAQ points. And it was getting pretty icky towards the middle of day. The story was that somebody puts out a report, the U.S. and China trade agreement. There's no trade agreement. Didn't cut any deals. But anyway, they put out could collapse because China's slow walking.

exports of rare earth minerals. Some to that effect. I also heard somebody say a deal with the United Kingdom. There's no trade deal with the United Kingdom. They had a meeting. They said something they'll buy some jets and we'll talk. Some of the reporting is what we'll call real goofy. Anyway, we were down 325 and it looked troublesome but throughout the day we came We had some rebalancing so the market was all over the map in the last 15 minutes. Some things got jammed to the upside. Some things got jammed to the downside. But when all was said and done, not a lot of movement.

But what we're going to do right now and for the rest of the hour, we're going to go through area by area, stock by stock. stock by stock and get the lay of the land as we enter the summer months. First off, for starters, of note, over the last three weeks, after a bottoming of the market in April, after a crash because of the crazy tariffs, and then, some sort of a, I don't know what you want to call it with China. Gaps and downside, downside and gaps and upside. The last three weeks we've sat around. Came into this week, had a very good Tuesday.

The story on Tuesday was something about the United, excuse me, the European Union and that a 50% was not going to be. So we gapped up. Had a strong open yesterday because of Nvidia. Didn't finish well. Today was rolling over but finished better. We remain range bound over the last three weeks and I got Newsfea. That's not bad.

I don't mind at all. But a few things of note. We mentioned the NASDAQ, and that's pretty much going to go for every other index out there. The S&P about three weeks, the Dow about three weeks, the small caps, just letting you know, I get asked all the time about owning the small caps. We'll say the same thing over and over again.

Do you want to own the strength, or you want to own the weakness. Small caps are just much weaker than large caps. They're probably going to have their day in the sun. One day, it still ain't happening. So we start with that. A move above the last three weeks would be good news in price has not happened. The semiconductor index, very rough day-to-day,

after reversing yesterday off of Nvidia, which takes us to Nvidia. Remember yesterday? They gapped it up, was up eight huge dollars. And for an NVIDIA, that's very good. Well, today was down another $4.5.00 at the close. At one time today, trying to get my bearings, right? It was down $5.89 today.

My bad. But showing a little up after the close. Nvidia is now down from yesterday's earnings report. That lauded reports, while we told you, wait a minute. They sandbagged their earnings to beat them, and they had a deceleration of earnings. Last four quarters, 152, 103, 71, and 33, that deceleration of earnings growth will not earn a stock. a medal. So our best guess, we don't think it gets trashed from here, but we think it remains range bound at best. So if your own, we think it's a hold. We think it's a hold. If you don't,

don't see the necessity in buying it. It's just range bound. And of course, that affected other semis today. And by the way, the talk was that we were going to do something to the tech industry that did that. That's the story. Next, oils continue to avoid bear market in oil stocks. There are a few that stick out that are actually strong, but most terrible. And I mean, terrible. The home builders, bare market, remains and avoid. Simple as that. A void. And when we're able to avoid all the bare markets, you are way ahead of the game.

I have to mention because it's sticking out again today, biotech. We don't know what the hell's going on there, but regeneron today, down $115 to $490. It was $1,111 last August. Most of the big biotech has been slammed, way down. Amgen is in the Dow less slammed, and we think it has to do with the fact that it is in the Dow,

and it gets some of that Dow money. But completely avoid, I'm going to say most of the big biotech. notice where we're starting with you as we go into the month of June because we're always hearing all kinds of talk on markets we're giving you the lay of the land up next the rest of the market this is the one only investors edge hi i'm gary colpom hosted a nationally syndicated radio show investors edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living specializing in fee-based discretionary money management no big commissioners just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was I going to do?

Stop myself. Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. Wow. That had everything. Rees. Suspense. Rees.

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your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank. On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator. and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promise is to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. We're giving you a little bit of the lay of the land in the markets. We're starting with what we call a void. And when we do this for you, we're not telling you what to do. it's your money we're telling you what we think based on what we are saying we do it without any agenda ulterior motive or bias at all simple as that so we've walked through the semis getting suspect

oils just a plain olivoid big biotech plane all avoid home builders plain old avoid i must say i have to add in that realm. I said oils, right? Well, in that realm is coal, bare market, brutal bare market in coal stocks.

And most other metals and mining stocks, not including gold in there. It would include steel and things like that. I just think they're plain old,

avoids. What else is in the avoid area? Rails and truckers and FedEx and UPS. And yeah, they can bounce, but we're talking about where are major trends. You go look at UPS right now, just brutal bear market. Just the brutal bear market. You go look at FedEx, brutal bare market. And by the way, they're classic looking bear markets. You look at the rails and truckers. Well, they're a little bit better over the last few weeks, a little bit, but certainly no uptrend, know what I call umph, and no reason to be in at this moment in time. And I'm talking about all of them, whether it's J.B. Hunt or Packar, whatever's going on, it ain't good news. And as always, this for you. If anything changes, we'll let you know. We're constantly coming on the show and saying

we think the complexion changed here or there. And again, I repeat, it's your money. You get to decide on all this. We're just telling you what we are seeing and what we are thinking. What else? Let me skip a little bit. Be careful if froth moves. what's our line? If companies have no sales and for whatever reason they get caught up in how to heck we don't know how it happens, just don't be the last one in. We mentioned yesterday Sharp Link, S-B-E-T, two bucks hit 125 today. This is like six days. There's not a lot of stock, 600,000 shares in the float, traded like how many shares that are traded? How many shares that are yesterday? 20 million? Been on the market for ages. No sales or very little. Hit 125 today,

closed at 88. Guess what happens to no sales companies? They all eventually go back to where they came from because eventually valuations matter. Eventually froth matters. Eventually speculation matters. If you can ever catch them right, God bless. bless you, but they come out of nowhere. They're usually things that don't even trade. This stock was trading 20, 30,000 shares a day at $2, which is nothing. And then boom. And you look for news, I can't find any news. So want you to be very, very careful along those lines. What else? well we mentioned to you the rails and truckers and things like that what about travel i'm going to use the word better airlines were in a bare market they've rallied up and they're holding right now

there's a couple that are bullish ryan air out of ireland that looks to be in a bull market how about Latam South America Bull market But if you look at ours Just some recoveries Delta United American they've been rallying up but still way off the highs

So not so thrilled overall But a couple of foreign Airlines not bad The hotels Definite recovery but recovery. No bull market, but a recovery. And when we use the term bull market,

we're talking about things in definable uptrends. Defineable. And we're not talking about something that went from 100 down to 50 and it's now 70. That's a recovery. We're talking about price going from 8 o'clock up to 2 o'clock. and not seeing that as of yet. The cruise lines, recovery, but some better than others.

Royal Caribbean, without a doubt, the best, I believe Norwegian is the weakest. Yeah, very weak. Wow, that doesn't usually happen. The bond market, just cooperating. The president met with Jay Powell yesterday, and I'm actually proud of the president, because normally he'd been out there yelling, I'll take that back. Normally he'd be out there jawboning Jay Powell, but he was quiet about it. All he did was come out and say, hey, I just told him I think he should lower rates.

But the president needs to listen to us. Lowering Jay Powell's rates could increase the more important rates. Jay Powell controls the short-term Fed funds rates, not the 10,000. year yield, which is the mortgages and a lot of the loans. And we're not trying to knock down Fed funds as being unimportant. It is important. Ten year, much more. And I have to tell you, it's quieted down.

It's much nicer. And if the bond market gets the feel that the Fed is not fighting inflation anymore, I can promise you that 10-year yield can go higher. China just avoid they're in our crosshairs and with the noise today I can just tell you the

Chinese stocks right now have topped out there's been rumors they will they're going to try and take them off our exchanges I don't think that's going to happen because you hear the people that hear that own over there but I just avoid them

I look at a couple of names that's you know stick out like Alibaba. The stock is rolled over. It gapped down on its earnings report. And you just go away. Retail. I'm just bearish on it for the most part.

There's a couple of strong names in there. But most are in a definable downtrend slash bare markets, except Costco today was up $31. And I must tell you, it's one of the marvels of the market, if you ask me. I'll explain that up next. On this, the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.

In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication.

And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans, the case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're reeses. What was that going to do?

Stop myself. Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. Wow. That had everything. Rees. Suspense. Rees.

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Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here With Gary Coltbaum Comes highly recommended You're going to feel better if you talk to him Okay So Costco

Well great companies Will tend to get a premium valuation in the market Dependable companies Tendable companies tend to get a premium valuation in the market. And for a better way of putting it, Costco has been one of those dependable retailers when you have so many that have gone by the wayside. Well, interesting enough, it trades over 60 times earnings. Its growth rate's been about 10%. In a normal world, a growth rate of 10% should have you at 25 times earnings at best.

let's say 30 well that means the stock that closed at 1,040 today should be at $520 but for whatever reason the market gives it the premium it was up $30

today on its earnings report which by the way earnings are only up 13 percent last quarter was 8 the quarter before 10 the quarter before that 6 those are not great numbers but it gets a premium valuation. Walmart is trading at 127, 185, 250, almost 40 times earnings with single-digit growth.

And it's just very tough to grow a company that already does 600 billion in business. I think they're going near 700 billion a year, believe it or not. 700 billion in sales. So just letting you know, they're still true. treating Costco with the big premium versus other things that have been getting smoked. Like a Macy's. By the way, Macy's topped out at $73 in 2015. It's $11 bucks right now.

Oh, and by the way, Macy's is trading where it did in 1997. But don't worry, just think long term. I love those people. You've got to think long term, but they don't tell you about the bazillion stocks that are at zero. City Group is it's $75. Nope, it's $7.50. They did a one for 10 split. They had to do a whole big reorg from 2008, so it's still down about 85% since 2008.

But think long term, just letting you know. Life's quite interesting in the markets. So I just wanted to give you the Costco thing. And there are others. I'm surprised about Apple. Apple pretty much single-digit growth. It has paid a penalty. The high was 260 in December.

It's at 200 today. Even at 200, it's trading at, let's see, 3, 5, 40, 6, 40, 7. It's trading at 30 times earnings. Shouldn't be trading there. Should be trading at 20 or less. But dependable gets premium valuation in the markets. That's how it rolls. Solar stocks, well, that's been forever.

Well, almost forever. Just complete avoids. Complete bare market. Stay away. Don't go near. Remember they were the end all be all? Not. I must tell you the defense stocks.

They're not doing anybody any favors. There's one that's decent here or there, but Lockheed's gone from 618 down to 482. There are others a little bit better. But what we tell you, we're looking for bull markets. We're looking for uptrends. We're looking for things that are lit on fire. So for the most part, defense stocks ain't happening, and that's kind of weird. Because in the new budget, I think they're adding $150 billion a year to the Defense Department.

That's one of my big pet peeves when it comes to the budget. I believe in the year 2000, the hold money to the Defense Department, the Pentagon, whatever you want to call it, was like $250 billion. It's like a trillion now. Now, I do believe in protecting the country, but a trillion. Really? A trillion? Our whole budget in the year 2000 was $1.8 trillion. By the way, speaking of that, I heard a couple of lion sacks on TV today being questioned about the budget and the debt going forward.

Man, oh, man. Oh, don't worry, growth will take care. I was going to throw something at the TV. I'm not going to say who. You know what party it's in. The party that used to care about debt deficits in spending. And they lie so easily. so easily

they would not be able to last an interview with me they'd be cursing me out within five minutes make that two minutes unbelievable unbelievable Europe

still stronger than us but I worry about that Europe has underperformed us forever and I think this may just be some short-term outperformance I say that because I look at the numbers coming out of there. Ain't no great shakes. Some of them countries are in recession.

And they're quite socialist, some of them countries too. So I'd be careful about that, but I must admit, I wish I own Europe over us over the past few months. Japan. It's been strong, but man, oh man, dead up the wazoo. Bond market's going awry. Don't trust. Great place to visit.

You have been to Japan? It's fantastic. I loved it. I definitely want to go back. Magnificent place. Bitcoin, moving right along. Broke out this week to a new high, but tucked its head in like a frightened turtle.

But looks okay. I still think it's just a Ponzi scheme. of a coin that is limited and you have a guy from micro strategy borrowing crap loads of money to keep buying it up you have an administration now that is back crypto nobody can tell me what it means what is it what does it do it does nothing I still believe could be a fig leaf

a piece of paper any object they decided to do coins You go on any of those coin websites and go see 32,000 coins that went to zero. There's a few left that trade. We'll keep watching on a technical basis because the chart patterns actually work, even on this. Don't ask me why? Yeah, actually, there's a reason why. Fear and greed.

Fear and greed. Tesla. there's not a day that goes by that I'm not asked about how can it be trading at these levels well you are correct I don't get it I say that because you're down 47% year over year Asia way down everywhere way down and what does this company do for a living oh they sell cars oh those cars aren't selling like they did they use cars down gargantuan amounts? What's the story?

They keep telling us everything's fine because there's going to be a bazillion robotaxies and all these other things they do. I read one fundamental guy who said, well, they better sell a lot of them. Tesla's been a recovering stock. It's been acting better.

Was down today on all that news? I think it was down about 12 bucks. No big deal. By the way, this is what we do when we do our scans nightly during the day and on the weekends. Just going through areas one by one, flushing out where the strength is, where the weakness is, spending a few moments on the whys and especially on individual names, looking for unusual insider buying or insider selling. We're always looking for CEOs and the CFOs buying the crap load of stock in the open market and then watching things closely because who knows better?

Up next, we'll wind up the week. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving in. to gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating,

chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day or I'm constantly feeling like gassy and all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was I going to do? Stop myself. Tune in next time to see if I do it again.

Spoiler, I will. Wow. That had everything. Rees. Suspense. Rees. Cash flow crunch. OnDex's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment.

Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to. to lender approval. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And, well, once again to Investor's Edge. And by the way, I always tell you, always look around you, see what's going on, talk to your kids. I still remember, and I think I've told this story,

My sons were telling me about Pokemon and all this stuff and whatever. There was a stock called Four Kids Entertainment that was involved. And it went up like fivefold, tenfold, and I didn't buy a share. Eventually it went into dust. But just letting you know, your kids will figure out what's hot out there, what's going on. Where's the strength? Where's the weakness? what's not selling what is very important but I'm a big believer in especially when it comes

to restaurant chains and retail stores and the like you got to go out there and check things out and I do that all the time we've told you about our little channel checks that we do we're told now the inflating numbers are so much better. Well, they are. But what they don't tell you is prices are still very much elevated. I went and picked up Doritos. I don't eat them, but I picked up a bag of Doritos today. The nine and a quarter ounce, that same bag was much bigger at a lower price.

just an example of what we do just trying to figure things out the good news the rate of inflation is down prices are not the housing market as we have told you when the numbers are coming in that we are correct inventory is skyrocketed prices are coming down fantasy land is going by the wayside especially on the high end. We're noticing, we've seen homes that were a million and a half bucks three years ago being put up for three, and they don't sell. And then two months later, they're two seven, and they don't sell.

And in certain areas, just an unbelievable amount of inventories, going up and guess what has to happen in order to move homes they've got to lower prices so we are now in what we call a buyer's market now just so you know location location different areas are different but especially florida right now that had that boom because of covid oh it's less of a boom right now and there's another thing going on with the condos with the fees and all and the HOAs and all that crap that ain't helping either.

But I'm also looking, I'm always looking at California. I'm looking in North Carolina. I'm looking at Texas. I look up in the Northeast also. I can tell you the high end in New York City. Oh, that's coming down. That's coming down in a very big way. So a lot of that's going on right now.

We'll let you know if that changes. And it speaks volumes how the home builders is in such a bad way right now. very tough business very tough in the news I just want to take on the news if you don't mind remember very important they don't care about you we're talking the main media we're not talking about opinion people we're talking about the main media that's supposed to report the news they left their jobs a long time ago. What I have noticed, unfortunately, they've taken sides. You know what sides they're on, and it's unfortunate. Do you remember Federman when he came out and he won the election? And Republicans were making fun of him. You know, he's got some health issues and stuff like that.

Well, it then started coming out that Federman is completely backing Israel. Completely. Media don't like that. They hate Israel. What are they doing? They're reporting on Federman's health now when they never reported about it before. They're saying their sources tell them. Remember, they don't care about you.

They will make things up. latest is Elon Musk, New York Times. Elon Musk was the hero of the left. The hero of the New York Times. Electric vehicles. He's bringing us into the next century. He's going to get us off gas-powered cars. Now he's just a drug addict and doing drugs all the time.

And ketamine this. and ecstasy and mushrooms, in Adderall. Now they're reporting this. New York Times. We just want you to remember all these things. It's of import. Under Biden, there were no homeless. There was no reporting on the border.

You know what the reporting is now under Trump? We're going to hell in a handbasket. Remember that. Do you see them applauding Trump on the, the border now that is down 95% at least of people getting through nope they don't talk about it we want you to remember all this they don't give you a fair shake in getting the real news that's why when they report the deaths in gaza they report the gazaan health ministry which is hamas the same people that murdered, raped, and kidnapped, infants all the way up to the elderly,

with heinous crimes, and now they're assassinating the Palestinians and not being reported by the same. Just remember, we will, with no bias, a gender, or ulterior motive. You'll have a great evening drive carefully. Have a great weekend. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise they will be well. Thanks for joining. Better markets ahead, we hope. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

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