Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The excellent week in review [12.01.2023]

Episode Date: December 1, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Friday, December 1, 2020. Hope you're having a good day. It's time for the weekend. Yay. Ladies and gentlemen, this is serious talk about you. and everything that affects you with the markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, taxes,

deficit spending, scam, shams, corruptions, and the Morlocks in Washington, D.C. We do throw a little comedy into the fray, but we really haven't been able to provide any comedy as of late because of what's happened with Israel. Today on the show, we're going to spend the whole first half of the show in walking you through the markets. Now, it's not as easy to do it on radio. It's much easier when we do the webcasts for our peeps because we not only say what we're saying and think what we're thinking, but show what we're saying and thinking. And very often on this show, we will take a few minutes of the time to explain to you how bull markets turn into bear markets and bare markets

turn into bull markets or uptrends into downtrends and downtrends into uptrends. So without further ado, from July to October, the end of October, we came on the show every day and said the market sucks. Pretty much in those words. We would highlight a thousand new yearly lows, the Russell 2000 at bare market lows, we would say to you, avoid this, that, and the other thing, avoid that, that, that, that, this, this, this, this, this, that, that, all in downtrends. The only areas that were in uptrends were a few mega-cap names, and during those three months, while the market was getting squashed,

I actually made a little money because in a moment in time we bought three mega cap stocks, made money on two, flat on the third, and got the hell out before. They got hit in the last leg of the drop. Stair steps to the downside.

Now all you have to do is take out a sheet of paper and a pen, a marker, or whatever you like, if you will, and draw stair steps. steps going down. Horizontal drop. Horizontal drop. Horizontal drop. That's what was going on. It was pretty easy. And we were telling you, 80% of the market is in downtrends. Maybe a few

percent are in uptrends. With the rest, they're kind of sort of in between. And then the end of October happens. But before we get into November 1st, we have to go over. Why? Because the word correlation comes to mind. The direct correlation, leave no doubt, was the drop in yields. Not the Fed, not that misery, not Mr. Bubble. Inflation's transitory. He's a bozo. And I, I take no joy, and it's nothing personal. It's purely business. I'm sure he's a nice man, but he don't know what the hell he's doing. And of course, while inflation that he caused with printing to $9 trillion was getting out of hand,

he was here, no evil, see no evil, speak no evil. But I digress. So interest rates were skyrocketing as well as the dollar, because as interest rates go up, the dollar will go along with it. Don't ask me why. Go Google it yourself. And then interest rates stop going up. In fact, right at 5% on the 10-year yield, it stopped going up.

But, you know, you need to do more than that. I remember it was, oh, October 23rd. You had a big drop in yields. The next two days you usually rally back up to 5%, but on October 26th, 5% was again shot down. And then came November 1st. And on November 1st, yields finally broke a support area. And on November 1st, we came on this show and said to you,

we think there's a chance the market has turned. That was pretty much our exact words. we went on to say based on the William O'Neill theory that we talk about a lot that was a confirmation day, a follow-through day. Now, we don't use that

as the end-all be-all. You need to have stocks to buy. And everything was in downtrend so there was really not a lot to do. So what you need to see at that point is more. Stair steps. So the stair steps were going down and then November 1st stopped them. So then what happened?

We rallied up for a couple of days and then we sat for about a week. Stair steps finally had a shot to make a step up, take a step up. And what happened? On November 14th, they came out with a step up. an inflation number, which was nice, according to whomever. And on that day, the 10-year yield really tanked, broke another area, another word stair steps going down. A gigantic move up in the market that day, which made things better. But it's only one stair step, and you need to have the market, what we simply state, constantly prove itself, constantly prove itself. So what happens?

After that big gap to the upside on the 14th, the market sat around. Overall, some things better than others, some growth names that we bought into and did pretty well with. But overall, the market sat around. The good news is it didn't do anything wrong, but sat around. And what you do is you wait for that next stair step. That's what you wait for. Now yesterday, the Dow, without a doubt, made another move. But the S&P hardly was up. But the NASDAQ was down. But the NASDAQ was down. But, but, but, but, but. So we need a little bit more. And I'm happy to tell you that today, oh, we got that stair step.

The Dow wasn't up 520, but it was up. More importantly, the broad areas of the market made a move. And we'll go through it in a minute. But we also told you yesterday, remember, we got a good eye, we're worried about the mega-cap techs. They seem to be rolling over here. And while the Dow's had two great days, on top of yesterday,

today, Microsoft down 5, Tesla down, Nvidia down, Facebook down, Google down. Whoops. So without a doubt, a changing of the guard to a certain extent doesn't mean they have to get trashed, but they're underd

distribution right now. The good news is stair steps and you got a really good one today because many areas of the market took a strong stair step up today. Get out the sheet of paper and the stair steps that were going down, put a floor, then start moving a stair step up A little turn to the right, make the step. Another rally up. Make another step. And guess what we just got? The next one.

And may I state for the record, it was a real strong one. And most importantly, it was broad-based. What do we mean by broad-based? Remember when we had those three-to-one negative days? We'll explain the opposite. Up next on Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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It doesn't get better than this. By the way, in this third segment of this show, we are going to rip the stuffings out of Gavin Newsom. the governor of California who had a debate last night with Ron DeSantis. And as you know, we think DeSantis has done a good job from COVID on. We disagree with a few things he's done. We think he's gone overboard on the culture thing, overboard on Disney. Little extreme in some areas. But on the economic front, he's done something we like.

He's left us the hell alone. versus that control freak in California. So in a few minutes, I'm going to rip the stuffings out of him because you know how we talk about, we can't stand any politicians. Oh, God. And you know how we tell you how Trump, the greatest liar of all time, that the championship belt was taken away by Joe Biden with his lies? They're just not called out.

In 90 minutes, I think Gavin Newsom usurped, I think that's the word, both of them. We'll get to that in a few. But first, you ready? Where do I start? The Russell 2000 broke above really strong range at 1830. Real strong move. The midcap 400. Broke above range.

Real strong move. Stair step. The housing stocks. Broke above range. Remember we've been saying very tight range? Broke above range today. Real estate? The IYR.

Broke above range today. By the way, volume heavy. The XME metals mining. broke above range today. The KRE, the regional banks, boom, broke above range today. Gold, the GLD, broke above the highs of last April, and is now at a closing high. Now, I will tell you this, back in 22, it hit 193.30, but on the week, it did not close there. Now we had a closing week.

did hit 194-45 in August of 20, but closed the week at 190.81.81. Oh, you think I'm done. The S&P broke above range a little bit. Now, just remember, those mega-caps are like 20-some-odd percent of the S&P, so if they're laboring, the S&P's going to labor a little bit, but overall, oh, we're not done. transports really broke above range today. The transports.

The industrials, XLI, broke above range today. The XLV medical? Timidly. We'll call it timidly. Retail the XRT broke above range today. And when I notice I'm a little vociferous with my words. notice the big words vociferous

how did I pick that Nate word out boy oh boy that came out of the back pocket it's because the move was really strong and you kind of already extended in a day on a move so maybe they pull it back a little bit I don't know

all I can tell you today was a meaningful move and of course along that note the 10 year yield down another big one point two five to four point two two six huge drop and what else the dollar was down now because so many really don't get it j powell mr bubble was out talking tough today he was actually saying you know we're not so sure we're not going to raise rates again so everybody's thinking that's bad Oh, if he raises rates, that's bad.

But if inflation's the problem and he stays tight, the bond market actually will be happy about it. Catch on my drift? Everything breaking above range. The XLF, the big banks, that actually moved above a little range a couple of days ago. China. Oh, that didn't break above range.

That's a weak sister. and we'll avoid because we're smart. The oils. Oh, that didn't break above range. Oh, it's an avoid, and we've been avoiding it. Crypto! Another strong day for crypto. We ain't buying it.

We just don't think there's anything behind it, but God bless the people that all of a sudden are geniuses that were crapping in their pants a few months ago. Now they're geniuses. You've got to see him now. Look at me. Told you. What else?

The JETS JETs JETs JETs. Well, that's just a exchange-traded fund for airlines. Broke above a little range today. Even the airlines. And then individual stocks. I've already scanned 1,500 names. New Yearly High List picked up today. That's things breaking above range.

at new yearly highs. And then there's a lot of things that broke above range off the lows and differing levels of their recoveries. Now, what is the thought process about this? Well, it usually means there's more to go. Remember what we tell you when a trend happens, a trend occurs. We have no idea how long it lasts or how far it goes. we will just be ready for when it changes. Like yesterday, we actually thought there was a change in some of the mega-cap tech, where people were parking. And it looks like since they don't have to park there anymore because other areas are coming to the four,

they're getting lopped off a little bit. We'll see. I got to tell you, I sold my Broadcom. I think I'm like $975. It's $9.30 already. That's how. crazy it is. For example, and believe me, we don't want to sell these things, but man, when we see what we consider to be, uh-oh, what else? The worst areas of the market have lifted. What have we

said to you in the last couple of weeks? The floor has lifted. If the worst areas that were big anchors in the market have lifted, and therein lies your story. Not so sure I need to say more. On the weekend, go look at the new high list, go check out what we talked about. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next

dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, as you know, I don't want Donald Trump to be president again. He's full of crap. He lies all the time.

I don't want Joe Biden to be president again. He's full of crap. He lies all the time. And the interesting part about their lies, it's blatant. They might as well stand there in front of the camera in front of the White House and say, yes, we're here in Nebraska right now. I mean, that's the blatant lies. And I would rather have a president that looks me straight in the face and just say the truth, even if it's not good for them politically. Now, I'm bringing up Gavin Newsom because let me be clear.

If Biden decides or moves out and does not run, and that's a chance, it's him. It's not Kamala Harris. Is it Kamala? Kamala Harris. Because last night DeSantis pronounced it and Gavin Newsom, how dare you pronounce it wrong? I think it's Kamala. It's usually the vice president. And I don't know how they get to that to Gavin Newsom when she's the vice president.

But if not now, he's a lock for 2008. Ron DeSantis does not look like 2024 is going to be his time. In fact, Nikki Haley, I think's ahead of him. and you can like them or dislike them I'm going to leave them be today and as I said there are things I don't like about them and there are things I do

but there's a special place in my heart for a Gavin Newsom for 90 minutes as I stated would be standing in front of the White House and say he's in Nebraska and I'm sitting there watching and by the way I taped it

and I'm sitting there watching I'm like, huh? I live in Florida. Huh? What do you say about Florida? Huh? He just spent 90 minutes just plain, flat out lying. And I just want to start with Sean Hannity.

And good for Sean Hannity. I've only met him twice. He wouldn't know me from Adam, even though I'm on Fox every day. He actually put up stats. Love that. And one of the stats was the gas tax in California. It's either the highest or number two. And ask the question about the gas tax.

Gavin Newsom. Oh, we're suing the oil companies. The oil companies are, you know, doing it. What? So lie number one. The gas tax is put upon by the government of the state. Simple as that. has nothing to do with the oil companies.

And if the oil companies are gouging, why would you raise gas taxes to hurt your citizens? So that was line number one. Number two, state tax. Case you don't know, they have a state tax up to 13% in California, in Florida, zero. In case you don't know,

California has a big budget deficit. How can that be when they have charged so many taxes? And Florida has a surplus. How can that be when they don't have any state taxes? Newsom blatantly lied about it and shrugged it off. Homelessness. The statistics are stunning. Not only total, but California's bigger, but per capita. Lots of homelessness in California. And what did he do? He was blaming wrong. Ron DeSantis on Florida.

And then they got into the COVID thing. In case you don't know, Ron DeSantis opened up Disney World a year before they opened Disneyland in California. And Gavin Newsom was complaining about Ron DeSantis locking down.

Ron DeSantis opened the schools. Gavin Newsom-Nusom-Gom-Nusom kept them shut. And Gavin Newson complained about the schools. Sean Hannity put up how many people have left California and how many people have arrived in Florida. Gavin Newsom looked straight into the camera and says, oh, we have more people coming to California than leaving. I'm like, wait a minute, they just put up the statistics. In other words, I'm standing in front of the White House and saying I'm in Nebraska. and I'm sitting there thinking to myself, crap, this guy could be president.

Trump, the lion's sack, Biden, the lion's sack. Oh, and we may get this guy? What a numbskull. We call them control freak Marxist. And what they do it with? Oh, by the way, go Google the words, California regulatory bodies or California regulation, organization. They have like 500 different departments of regulations.

It may be a thousand for all I know. And here's how Marxist control freaks do it. Ridiculously high taxes, massive amounts of regulation, and stifle. And then he went on to talk about how great things are there. Oh, we're number one in this, we're number one in that, number one in that. Number one in this, number one, that. That's the people. for whatever reason

all these Silicon Valley companies went to Silicon Valley and they've created all these wonderful companies because of the government? Hell no. It's because of people's smarts and risk capital. You know what we always say about these politicians? They're lucky to have their people.

Gavin Newsom is lucky to have his people there. And he's lucky he's got California. Have you ever been to California? It's gorgeous. I lived for a little bit of time in a place called Rancho Bernardo, north of San Diego. It's gorgeous. I used to hang on the weekends at La Jolla. It's gorgeous.

I've played golf many times at Pebble Beach and Monterey and Carmel. It's gorgeous. And you drive up the coast. It's gorgeous. And you got the national parks. It's gorgeous. And San Fran in the redwoods north of it is gorgeous. and the wine country is gorgeous.

And they're killing it. Because a stupid, moronic, control freak Marxist with their idiotic moronic policies. People are afraid to go out at night in San Fran. They're afraid to go out night in Oakland. Shelds are empty at stores because they won't restock them because of all that is shoplifting. attorneys generals with their stupid policies of letting crime out onto the streets

are screwing the citizens and kissing the asses of the criminals in California he ain't doing that in Florida just letting you know I sat for 90 minutes with my mouth agape at the bull crap that was being spewed out of this guy's mouth He does have nice teeth, though. And they'll keep voting for him for whatever reason. As I keep saying, I got to tell you, ladies,

these politicians are so lucky to have us, what would they do without us? Think about it. They're nothing. They're nothing. They're pencil-pushing control freaks. D.C. can't even turn on a light without our taxes.

And when they think they don't have enough, what they do? 34 trillion in debt very soon. California, massive taxes, and they're still running deficits. Gavin Newsom. Just another punk. And it's nauseating. Up next, we'll put a bow tie on it. Get back to the markets.

Serenity Now. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John Comfort perfected This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect

Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit For less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase Bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination Plus enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is up.

subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Okay. So we'll put a bow tie on it. The chalk for the presidential election is the Ebola virus versus the bubonic plague. If Gavin Newsom enters the prey, the whole, the fray, I'll have to come up with a disease for him. It's so depressing.

It really is. And I know you guys and gals that love Trump, God bless you. I'm not going to try and sway you. Hope you respect my opinion. And feel all you that love Biden, which is a lot less of you, God bless you. Hope you respect my opinion. But nobody can refute $34 trillion of debt.

Trump's $6 trillion. Who promised, oh, I'm the only. of the deal. And I'm going to come in and it's so easy to get rid of the debt and deficits. And the defenders say, well, it's not just Trump. Oh, it was Trump. And then Biden. My goodness gracious.

I've cut child poverty in half. He has the grapefruits to come and say that. To me, who works with the Boys and Girls Club of Central Florida, 12, 13,000 kids. A lot of them that aren't in great economic shape. A tax credit doesn't take anybody out of poverty. It's mentorship, it's leadership, it's education, it's parentalhip, if that's a word. No, it's not a word. This creeping D.C. Biden, I caught the child poverty in half.

Kiss mine, buddy. I lowered the deficit. Yeah, sure, right. What a high bar to take the championship belt on BS away from Trump. And Biden has lapped him. And now comes Newsom. If you can hold your food in, go check out the 90 minutes of just utter bull crap. And the COVID thing was a laffer.

Do you know I was on TV almost every day comparing Florida, California during COVID and how they treated the people and how they treated business? It was so far and away night and day between what they did in Florida and we the people versus what they did in California. We'll tell you what to do. We're smarter than you. That's my take. The Dowip 294. Salesforce.com Here's the interesting one.

You know how we've had Big Cap tech come in? Well, it gapped up yesterday, up another eight today. That is the equivalent of 200 now points in two days on Salesforce.com. Of the 800 points in two days. Goldman up almost seven, Home Depot up almost six,

on their crappy numbers. McDonald's Ford, Nike 3. Remember, as interest rates come down, as gas prices, have come down. What does that do? Cost the capital cost of energy. Perception is so retail does better. Airlines do better. And by the way, I was speaking to a cruise line industry person. They say it's going great guns. But I got to tell you, maybe I read this wrong, but I think I read it right. They actually have a cruise ship now that 7,000 passengers and 2,000.

and people who work... 9,000 people on a ship. You ain't never seen me on one of those ships. Sorry! I think it was 7,000 I read. I like the smaller ones. I went on a ship called Seaborne in the Mediterranean before COVID. It was so good.

And you had less fun. You know, you have more fun. You got the... You have a go-car track in one of these cruise lines now. A go-car track and big water park. And they have like, you don't even know you're on a ship, by the way. I got to figure you don't even know you're on a ship as you're walking on and it's that big. Yeah, maybe I'll do it once.

Just to check it out. I got to double-check. I'm pretty sure it said 7,000 passengers. I know it was 5 or 6 definitely. I think it was 7. Imagine being on a ship in the water with 9,000. people. I guess you don't have to imagine. S&P up 26. The Dow was up 800 points in two days. The NASDAQ 100 was up nine points. That's what we mean by underperformance by the mega cap tech. That is huge. And I think what you have, this is my good guess. A lot of money was parked in these mega caps. And now that, other things are finally working, people, the big money has more confidence in moving away

from that liquidity into other places. And let me be clear, I started this show on purpose by saying, retail, small caps, midcaps, housing, medical, metals, mining, gold, real estate, financials, regional banks, transports, airlines, to let you know this thing has broadened out and it was a real strong move in these broad areas today. Maybe they pull it back a little bit, Monday, Tuesday, whatever. Typically, it's going to lead to higher prices

into the end of the year. But of course, as you know, we take it day by day. and if things change, we will let you know. But our stance from November's first sticks, and we got another stair step today. And it was strong. Good news for you. We didn't get it yesterday with the Dow P520.

We got it today. Now the bears, the perma bears are going to be out saying, oh, this ain't real. Oh, it's real. The Bulls are going to tell you, told you so. Well, the Russell 2000s still down 25% from two years ago. We could throw that in their face. Anyway, that all said, you have a great weekend, drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.

Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better, I promise. Monday will be on with Charles Payne, 2 p.m. Fox Business Network and same time for the show. Have a great one, everybody. Thanks for joining. Peace out. Good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw-fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.