Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The fed [07.30.2025]
Episode Date: July 30, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/...
Transcript
Discussion (0)
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk
Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom,
your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen,
happy that you are listening. Wednesday, July 30th, 2025. Hope you having a good day.
tomorrow I'm heading for up to see the dad and then I'm going to summer slam on Saturday
I'm going to decide whether I'm going to do it on Sunday also this two days of wrestling
but we have lots to cover and ladies and gentlemen as you know we pull no punches
we curry no favor we don't care about R or D that continue to interfere and interlope in
our lives including this one and those of you who love him
because supposedly he's this Republican conservative.
Well, we're finding out he is an interventionist, a protectionist.
And in some cases, Biden-like.
But we root for him every day.
That is, decisions are correct.
And as you know, we love what he's done on the border.
We love what he's doing for Jewish students.
We love him ripping the stuffings out of the media
that is so damn corrupt.
There's a lot of things we love about the guy.
But there are a few things we're going to cover today.
But mostly we're going to cover the markets.
And they were wicked.
They were wild because it was Fed Day.
Now, let me give you the final numbers on Fed Day.
The Dow was down 171, the S&P down 8.
NASDAQ was up 31, NASDAQ 100, up 30.
but at the get-go on the Fed, the Dow was down 300 and change.
Well, let me give you the numbers to make it easy on you on what the Fed does.
And that's why we always say, never blink on Fed Day.
So at 2 p.m., the Dow was at, well, I take it back.
Initially, the market rallied off the Fed.
Initially.
In fact, the market went from, let's call it, 44623 to 44739, but was still down about 100.
And within about 20 minutes, we were down to 44330340.
If I got this right, we're down over 400 points.
But finished, only down 171.
Did we really get down that far?
44-261 was the low.
My bad.
We were down 371 at the lows.
371 at the lows.
But finished only 171.
The NASDAQ hit 21230.
and was up
131 points
then it went to 21016
so it was actually down 70 but finished up
31
so nice little finish at the end of the day
now I never watch the Fed
press conferences because they are a comedy act
just remember
they don't know what they're doing
all they are is a bunch of easy money
mutts
that have missed
every big move and caused every big problem.
But to his credit, Jay Powell hasn't done much lately, and we like that.
So they didn't move today, in spite of the president, jawboning, and threatening his arse
to fire him, which now they say they're not going to.
And that was that for the day.
A lot of jello moving on the plate.
And also a lot of big earnings reports to report.
when all is said and done.
We'll have for you in a minute, Microsoft and Facebook.
And I do believe both are up nicely in the aftermarket.
I got to tell you some.
Microsoft, a big freaking wow.
Facebook, a big freaking wow, both on earnings.
Very nice.
Very nice. We'll get to that in a little bit.
Microsoft up 6% in the aftermarket. That is fantastic for this type of a company.
Wow. Met is up too. We'll get to that.
But let's finish up with the Fed because now I've got to take on the president because
he doesn't know what he's doing either. He's been calling for Jay Powell to lower interest rates to 1%
when the free market real yields the 10 year is 4.36, the 30 years 4.9.
If J. Powell went to 1% today, I think the 10 year would have skyrocketed causing all kinds of hell in the mortgage markets and the like.
the president is like every other president wants the easiest money possible because polls go up when the markets go up.
That's how it works.
But he's 100% wrong and I would tell it to the president's face.
He's 100% wrong on wanting to go that low.
What Jay Powell could do is lower to half point.
and kind of sort of be in line.
That's what I do.
Wouldn't go further than that.
And that's it.
Now, what are we talking about here?
Well, Jay Powell's the Fed funds rates, that short-term rates, money markets, a few other things.
What's the president not understanding is that Jay Powell doesn't control the 10-year,
which is your mortgages and so many other loans, and more important than anything else?
Much more important than anything else.
And if the market, the free market deems that they're not worried about inflation anymore,
they may sell off bonds and the 10-year goes higher and there goes mortgages.
You're screwed.
And just so you know, we have gotten this right for years.
And when we tell you, Powell doesn't know what he's doing, we mean that.
We tell you the president's wrong.
We mean that also.
It doesn't make them bad.
the president should want to have the lowest interest rates possible in the easiest money.
It makes life easier for them come the next election.
So we're past that.
Who to hell knows what's next?
We'll see.
But let's report some news besides what the market did today.
And by the way, nice comeback at the end of the day.
but more importantly
you got some big earnings after the close
well let's play this first
Tesla Gap Down Netflix Gap Down
Spotify Gap Down
some important names
Google was
nondescript
right
you ready
I got Microsoft closing at
513 dollars
Now remember
this is a company that has a 3.8 trillion
market cap it's up 6%
in the aftermarket, $32.
And I believe, I don't have the, I'll look in a second at the number, what percentage it is of the S&P
and the NASDAQ 100, but I think it's pretty decently sized.
So that's a big move for Microsoft.
And let me just state for the record, they came in and reported, let me get this right.
Hmm.
365 versus 338 expected 76.4 billion with 73.8 expected. So 365 versus 295 is 70. That's about a 22% earnings growth gain, which is a little acceleration. On the sales front, what did they do? 76.4 versus 64. That's about 17.4. That's about 17.7.7.7.7.4. That's about 17.7.7.7.
18%, that's an acceleration, and the market's going to love that, especially on a very
important, big institutional name, which takes me to meta, which closed at 694, 757, up 9% in the
aftermarket, to a new high, nice.
And meta's been waning as of recent.
$7.14 versus estimate of $5.88.
714 versus 516.
Last I looked at is about a 40% earnings growth,
which is a little acceleration.
And by the way, that's a sandbag.
Their earnings was a sandbag,
just letting you know they learned from Apple.
Up next, we'll do the rest of meta.
Much more.
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A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach
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And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach kick every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you
should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain
sales working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion
of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this and on meta do not
done done done done uh 20% sales growth so a little acceleration in both and leave no doubt
Mark Zuckerberg has learned the Apple.
Apple has been the greatest sandbagging company of all time, always in the past, given out guidance that was ridiculously low.
And of course, the analysts kissed there, you know what, so they went along with it knowing they were sandbagging and then they'd beat big.
That estimate on meta was a joke.
The estimate was for be a massive deceleration of earnings.
Well, that didn't happen.
So I can tell you flat out in the aftermarket, the QQQQ, which closed at 568, I got it at
572, nice little 8 tenths of a percent move.
The SPY up about a half percent, by the way, on two names.
And by the way, I mean that.
they make up that much.
NASDAQ 100 make up.
I haven't done in a couple of weeks.
I'm going to do it now.
You're ready for this?
Microsoft is 13% of the NASDAQ 100.
6% is meta.
By the way,
Nvidia is 14%.
Wow.
S&P 500 makeup.
You ready for this one?
Microsoft is 7%.
7%. Met is 3.3. So 10%, 2 names. That's why it helps the main indices. And that's why, by the way, that's all I've been in is the big indices. I haven't touched the small and midcaps. And then again, last year I did a couple of times on the small caps. I stopped out twice. So very good mega cap F market move in two very important names. And should count,
some weight with other things. We'll see how the night goes, but those are two Bafo numbers.
I will tell you meta is going to be a breakaway gap tomorrow, depending where it opens,
and boy, am I going to be watching that closely for entry?
Even if I would have owned it going into this week, I would have been selling the last couple of days.
Microsoft, though, that one's extended. Don't have an answer fee on that.
Also in the aftermarket, while I got you,
Lamb Research is up three bucks.
That's not unimportant.
Qualcomm, that's, ooh, Qualcomm's down $10.
Ouch.
How about Robin Hood is up two bucks.
Ford, which out's like the south end of a northbound mule, is down.
Let's see if Carvanna reported.
Carvana
I got to make sure of it
before I even tell you
I think is up a bunch
Carvana
closed it to 333
it's 380
Dang
eBay reported
Let me make sure
That can't be right
How about eBay again
eBay's up five bucks
So Bafo aftermarket
report except for Qualcomm
arm holdings
can't tell
down seven bucks
so qualcom and arm are down but a bunch of things are up
and pretty damn good
wow
wow into tomorrow
Western Digital also up four bucks
and of course in sympathy
and Vidi is up about a buck and a half
in the aftermarket broadcoms up
the SMH is up
if I can find
that, that'll be up a little bit.
So we're going to have a good Thursday morning on some of these mega caps, ladies and
gentlemen, simple as that.
On a wicked and wild day with Jay Powell and the president, also today, we told you
we thought the dollar was bottoming, which could affect commodities.
I will tell you, copper crashed today.
No, really.
C.P.A.R. went from 36 down to 28 and change.
It's a crash.
Platinum dropped 7%.
Gold got hit hard, silver got hit hard.
I didn't look at the rest.
And of course, let's see, Freeport, MacMaran, Copper, boom, good night.
How about Southern Copper, down 6%.
the XME, which is metals in mining, down 2%.
Rough day.
And it's going to be rough for commodities if the dollars get stronger.
And let me tell you what else it will be rough.
It'll also be rough for multinationals.
As we explained to you yesterday, that's going to matter also.
But ladies and gentlemen, Microsoft meta, that's big stuff.
Those are big moves for mega caps.
Big moves.
Next up, we'll be Apple and Amazon tomorrow after the close.
And I moved my flight a little bit later tomorrow night up to the Northeast.
So we'll be doing the show tomorrow.
And, yeah, Apple, Amazon, Coinbase is tomorrow.
KLAC is tomorrow.
And there you have it.
How's that for reporting?
What else was strong today before the close?
AI stocks.
The energy thing,
C-E-G, V-S-T,
other AI names like C-R-D-O or A-L-A-B.
And that's the story.
It'll be a good morning.
We're loaded with the Q's and the X.
By the way, the X-L-K will be happy tomorrow also.
And that is what I got for you on this day.
You know, other things going on today, ladies and gentlemen.
Tariff mania was at it again, hearing different stories on what they're doing.
I think the president's got to be careful.
Today, you know, there's a 50% tariff on Brazil.
Threatening Brazil, right?
Oh, he's exempting orange juice, iron ore, and coal.
You know what we get the most?
From Brazil, from what I read, orange juice, iron, orange coal.
You catch in my drift?
It's like another pause.
I don't know what the game is or whatever.
I'm just hoping, I'm just happy for tariffs, much lower, and pauses.
Because 50% on Brazil is not good news.
By the way, August tariffs, August 1st, still, that are out there, 40%, me and more
in Laos, 36% Thailand, Cambodia, 35% Canada and Serbia, 30%.
You ready?
Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Sri Lanka, South Africa, Algeria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Mexico.
Up next.
We take on the media.
This is the one only investors.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with
pharmacist to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains
why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache
every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just
I have a stomach kick every day, or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,
a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
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The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation,
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Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you.
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You're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on its feet here.
Here, he's your Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Thanks for being with us today.
As you know, unfortunately, the media can really shape stories and lies.
One of the big lies that has been going on as of late,
and some pretty sane people believing it
because the media reports is what's happening in Gaza.
They don't want to report that 50 hostages are still there.
How long has that been now?
They don't want to report that Hamas is murdering Palestinians
who go against them.
They don't want to report that Hamas is stealing aid and food.
But you know what they do want to report?
Famine.
Have you noticed all the pictures?
The adults are in great shape, but the babies are thin?
Huh.
But I want to harp upon some of the worst of the worst.
The New York Times posted a picture of a baby with a woman.
And it turns out the baby has, and the very thin, we find out that the New York Times knew that the baby had cerebral palsy, whatever it may be, had nothing to do with famine.
The New York Times was found out.
They posted the picture on its main Twitter account and the newspaper, 55 million.
followers. When they were found out, they posted it on their PR account with 89,000 followers.
The New York Times hates you. They just want you to be a mark. They have op-eds against Israel every day. They have been calling on apartheid, even though Israel left Gaza and O'Fon.
occupation, even though they left in 2005.
The most giving and loving,
and I don't even use the word tolerating,
because they just don't care if you are black, white,
Muslim, Arab, everybody gets treated well in Israel,
not reported.
Gays for Hamas,
they would be hung by their feet and stone to death.
In Israel,
You looked as normal as anybody because they don't see race creed colored, but the New York Times does.
And boy, are they catching crap on this?
But here's the problem.
They don't care.
And they're not accountable to anybody.
But I'm not done because they did it to Trump today.
Headline.
U.S. economy slowed in first half of 2025 as tariff.
scrambled data.
That was their headline.
And then as you go into
the report,
that's not what it says.
They're hoping you just see a headline.
Those 3% GDP came out.
The subheadline, things are slowing.
Why would they do that?
Because they hate Trump.
They hate Trump.
you that likes or loves Trump, you are the enemy. And it makes me nauseous. They say it's the
paper of record. They're a suckfest of lies. They incite violence when they put out pictures
of little kids that don't weigh a lot because they're ill, not because of famine.
But they don't care.
What do they care about repercussions?
They don't.
And the shame of it is there's some great reporting in the New York Times,
great reporters.
I am talking the op-eds and some of these political clowns.
That's the shame.
Do your own homework.
Don't ever even believe me on anything we say.
But no.
the agendas and the bias, and some of it is just plain old sickening,
using sick babies to push a narrative that causes people to be attacked.
I went to a bar mitzvah in New York City a month or so ago.
They had to have three police officers out there because of needed security.
Where does that come from?
I say some of it from the New York Times.
And there are others, of course.
But this one stood out like a sore thumb.
Lastly, have you seen this whole to do with the American Eagle Outfitter Ed
where a young actress is talking about jeans and now they're saying it's Nazi propaganda?
Have you seen that?
Have you noticed that?
I just want you to remember people and what they think and what they do and how they do it
and what their agenda and biases.
A girl is running an ad on selling jeans and they're calling Nazi propaganda.
Not kidding.
They had somebody from a university today saying Nazi propaganda.
because they use of the word genes and white supremacy.
Oh, it's a nut house, ladies and gentlemen.
And that's how Donald Trump got elected.
Remember, Donald Trump, 50% got elected because of Donald Trump.
But 50% because of them.
They're insane.
I just want to let you know the young lady.
Sidney, I think her name is, was not wearing jackboots,
did not have a swath sticker on the jeans
and did not do a Heil Hitler with her arm
faced out.
Just wanted to let you know.
And I gather the happiest people are American Eagle outfitters
because they're getting a lot of press
and other people being laughed at.
And that's all.
Back on point, Microsoft,
$37 was just $47.
It was just 42.
It's just moving around.
Microsoft, close at 513, 550 in the aftermarket.
Meta, 695, 762 in the aftermarket,
though meta was 748 just a few weeks ago.
Two names that will lift a little bit of the boat tomorrow morning,
notwithstanding conference calls or changes.
Big indices will have a nice little open tomorrow,
and we'll see what comes of Apple.
and Amazon. Apple has been
weak as weak
can be.
And by the way, is down in the aftermarket.
We'll see if they help tomorrow.
And by the way, Apple and Amazon
are huge to
the indices
themselves. Apple is
5.4% to the
S&P and 10%
to the NASDAQ 100.
And there you have it.
A lot of jello moving on the
plate today. We've had a
lot to say, remember, no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive, logic, facts, protect capital,
know what's working, know what's not, and the Mets are in first place. That's the good news.
Up next, this, that, and the other thing, and whatever else. This is the one only investors' edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. J. Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with
pharmacist to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains
why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache
every day, or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that
generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point,
we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much
more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz.
Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours.
The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness.
Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you.
Learn more at Viz.com.
OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours.
Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps,
on-dex loans up to $400,000,
Help make it happen fast.
Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews,
On-Dec delivers funding you can count on.
Apply in minutes at OnDec.com.
Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank.
On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota.
All loans and amount subject to lender approval.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the guest's edge.
with Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
By the way, not that you care.
I'm getting very cut.
Just letting you know.
I told you, you know, I had the back spasms went away.
Everything in good shape now.
I am back to getting cut.
I love when the abs are sticking.
We're getting there.
I've got a few more weeks.
Just so you know how I do it.
15,000 steps a day.
A bunch of them on the incline.
Don't eat after 7 p.m.
Cut out all the crap.
Eat well.
I don't drink alcohol.
No sodas.
No sugars.
Or not a lot.
And of course the six days a week,
15 to 20 sets of lifting, 15,000 steps. Do you know what today? Let's see what I got today already.
Today, I've got 9,500 already. That's 4.34 miles already today. And I get it before the market
opens. That says 22 floors also, 465 calories. Yesterday I did 14,830.
When I was in London, I had a day where I did $32,000.
Because I start walking out in London, I just go.
And I pretty much don't stop.
I have a little business in Italy.
Yeah, right.
In late October.
I've never been to Sicily.
So the fishmen's assed, and we said, hell yeah.
And of course, I bring the four screens with me.
market opens at 3.30 p.m. closes at 10 in Sicily.
We fly into London, flight to Sicily, fly back to London, fly home.
That's how we roll.
Anyway, that's all you got to do.
And I throw a little boxing in here or there.
Everybody has this idea.
It's really tough to be in shape.
No, it isn't.
Walking is tough.
Get an inclined trainer, put it on 5 to 15.
If you can't, just leave it on regular, and just go.
Turn on the TV, watch your favorite shows.
You know what most people do at night?
They sit and watch.
So what do you do?
Replace with walk and watch.
And wait till you see what happens in 90 days.
Little inspiration for all you.
I get to ask all the time.
Just letting you know.
Other things.
So we mentioned Microsoft meta and other things work,
and we're just letting you know.
We mentioned the commodities really getting hit now.
We'd be careful.
China, which was really trying to break out very much commodity-based,
that's starting to give a little bit of way to the downside.
I'd be wary of that.
the transports today were down another let me get the number 487 after being down 315 yesterday
I'd be very wary and part of that today was avis renter car down 31 bucks or 15% today
FedEx down $10 today boy that's a bare market you already know about UPS and their
earnings. Union Pacific is buying Norfolk Southern and both stocks went down. How about Old
Dominion? That's a trucker down 15 bucks today. So you better be avoiding the airlines. We've
already told you about insurance stocks to avoid. They got hit today. Auto dealers, they continue to
get hit. A lot of the drugs in health care continue to be in bad shape and we be wary of that area.
also that managed carrier, oh, but by the way, I do want to mention UMATA was up $28
today to $261.
That's a managed care stock, HMO.
But a reminder, it was 530 in October of 23.
It's 260 today.
But good day today.
So there's definitive areas and names that are what I would call on the troublesome side.
So be aware that it ain't throw the dart time.
And also in growth, I'm noticing that software security like Palo Alto networks and CrowdStrike waning a bit here.
Another software name service now just crumbles.
So my Ick list is picking up.
in the Dow IBM gap down a 3M breaking down and by the way that's dollar software name like
salesforce.com week while Microsoft very strong by the way Microsoft will help the Dow tomorrow it's in the
Dow Procter & Gamble not kidding new yearly low on Procter and Gamble gold as I said to you the other
the day we bought it, sold it with a couple of days with a small loss, oh, it's rolling over
now, the dollar is strong or stronger. So stay in touch. We just brought another account in
with 200 stocks in it. I found about 70 in downtrends. That shouldn't it ever have to happen
if you do a little work. Go get O'Neill's book, How to Make Money in Stocks, go get Stan Weinstein's
book The Secret for Profiting and Bull and Bare Markets and Study.
And if you're never in a bare market, you have such a big leg up.
You just have to know how to define big up trends and downtrends.
It's work.
Nobody's saying it isn't.
That all said.
Have a great evening and drive carefully.
And when you get home to like we do quite simple, make sure you hug your family,
make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise they will be well.
Thanks for joining.
Until tomorrow.
Good night.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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