Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - the fed [11.01.2023]

Episode Date: November 1, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's a degree better. Explore more than 350-plus undergraduate, graduate and certificate programs at ASUonline.asu.asu.edu. Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host.

Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is November 1, 2003. Hope you're having a good day. I want to get going. You know, we only have a certain amount of time to do a show, and I got lots to cover today. But very quickly, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

By the way, we're Investor's Edge. Also at GaryK.com, you can follow me on Twitter. Just press the button. Or go to Twitter and put our name in. You can email me. All you've got to do is be nice. That's pretty easy, right? Okay.

And whatever else. And this is Investors Ed. Serious talk on you and everything that affects you with a little comedy injected, but no way we can have any comedy right now because of, all the things that are going on in this world, which basically leaves us speechless, doesn't it? Okay, I want to start out with number one. As you know, we've been talking Israel and all those going on.

There are two things that stick out for me today. And I'm going to be quick. A 21-year-old engineering student at Cornell was arrested, and I don't know exactly what they arrested them for, but it has to do with terroristic threats against Jews. You may go look it up. And I'm thinking to myself, here's a simple thing I was thinking. My uncle Howie, Howard Callan, who passed away many years ago of multiple myeloma,

graduated from Cornell, and he was so proud of Cornell. and you know what he graduated as? Engineering. Became a very well-known engineer. Company was called Callan and Lemelson. And all is just thinking to myself was, here's an engineering student at Cornell. I'm pretty sure he's got to be brilliant,

smarts, engineering. And he probably ruined his next, you know, life gives you second chances. But for now, he's pretty much ruined for quite a while over threatening the Jewish population, death. And the next thing I just want to mention, so I've been talking about the colleges, and there's no way these students just all of a sudden dream up that Israel is the... hell and the worst possible people and this, that, and the other thing. And I've been getting emails from students at colleges now saying, oh, you wouldn't believe what they're teaching us.

And now we're finding out, especially in these Ivy League schools, they're pretty much teaching exactly what these students are yelling and screaming in the streets. well I guess we're finding out a lot of things in the recent past. Next, as you know, we're under the radar. We are not that guy who's on that financial channel that's been on there forever, very famous. He's actually been in movies. God bless him for the hard work he puts in.

We're just known in our little neighborhood. I have this radio show, but I'm not Joe Rogan. I'm on Fox. Fox News maybe once every couple of weeks, Fox Business a few times a week. But we're under the radar. Do you know what that means? We're just under the radar. I'm not, how do I put this?

There used to be a commercial when, what was it, when Lehman talks, everybody listens. Was it Lehman? Yeah, well, they went out of, business. I think it was Lehman. I'm not sure. But there are certain people on Wall Street that I tell you when they speak, I listen. One of them, Stanley Drucken Miller, used to work for Soros. He was on CNBC this morning. I have not watched the interview, but I heard the things he said. Very famous hedge guy, very successful. I also hear that Lawrence Summers, The ex-Tresory secretary was out talking today.

And you know what I found interesting? They're now loudly voicing everything we've been telling you for years. They're now loudly voicing everything we've been telling you for years. And nobody knows us. And actually, I think that's a good thing. And when I say nobody, you know, you get my point. What did they say today?

And I believe it was, who did it the other day that echoed me also on the Fed? That they have no idea what they're doing and all that fun stuff. Anyway, do you know what they're out? Yeah, I mean, and I hear they were not, I'm using the words yelling and screaming as a metaphor of talking loudly and vociferously. the Fed and their stupidity. The massive amounts of debt, they give a crap about the debt all of a sudden, oh my goodness gracious,

they were talking dead up the wazoo. We can't continue this way. There's no way. All of a sudden, it took $33.5 trillion for them to come out to blast. And I heard they blasted. To blast.

These corrupt, sleazy, slimy, politicians from the presidents on down that have taken us to unsustainable and more importantly, there's no way to get the crap back in the goose. There's no way. You know when somebody says, oh, if I became president, I would fix it. I don't think you can fix it anymore

because they have gone over the top. You know when you can't turn back, No chance. Oh, what else did they talk about today? How many times have I brought it up? You got to do something about entitlements. Now, I don't use the word entitlements. I don't believe Social Security is something you're entitled to.

It's your money. It is your money. But they call it entitlements. Well, duh, we've been telling you that for 15 years, but here's the problem with entitlements. these same scummy, sleazy, corrupt politicians that have taken us to $33.5 trillion, gone of 50, won't do anything about it. Do you know why?

They don't want to lose their power. Do you know why? Because anybody who tries to even talk about doing something about, by the way, these government programs, well, let me give an example. Do you remember in the early 2000s when Bush was the president? We were invited to the White House. It was called Radio Days. It was so cool.

It was great. I went there with my producer, Colin Brady and Shannon Burke, who's still on radio in Florida and stuff. Anyway, we got to interview them, and the second time we went, it was for when Bush won his reelection. And what they wanted to do was address Social Security. They came out and said, we got to do something about it because this thing is out of hand. Nobody did anything about the demographics. People were living a lot longer. So we went and did this radio days.

And I got to interview the Treasury Secretary John Snow, people like Call Rove, that was the president's right-hand man, and a few others. It was about Social Security. And basically all they had said was, we just want to address it and have a conversation about it. A week later, I got a call from my point man who got me invited to the White House said we're dropping it. I go, what? Yeah, they're killing us politically. The Dems came out. We're talking about throwing grandma off the cliff.

So they had to drop it. They were worried about the politics. And thus now we're at the point where social security is just, what have we told you for years? If they never did Social Security and it wasn't a government program, and all you did was that money that they took out of your paycheck and went to them to go in a lockbox, they lied to about the lockbox, if it just went into your account, your name, and you couldn't touch it. and it would just go into a 10-year bond, and it would be, every time it matures, you'd just redo it again and again. Well, it'd be in your name right now.

It wouldn't be part of the government. They wouldn't have stole it in the first place, and you'd have 100 times more money than you would have right now and control. But no, a government program, and now they're out worried about it. Up next, we'll put a little bow on it, and then the Fed, and then the markets.

Lots to talk about it. I'm Gary. This is the one, the only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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it doesn't get better than this so social security the greatest Ponzi scheme of all time where they took your money out of your paycheck and they told you it was going into a lockbox well they stole all the

money and the only one you get paid your Social Security right now is a retiree is because people are working. And people are working are getting Social Security taken out of their check and that's going to you. Thus, Ponzi scheme. It's the definition of a Ponzi scheme. The greatest scam of all time. And now some people are yelling about it. We've been on it for 15 years.

20 years. But we're under the radar. We're a little, you know. Nobody's, our peeps. Gary's Gallery listens to us, and you all get it. This is all done in plain sight. Remember, they told us it was going into a lockbox not to be touched. Just so you know, your Social Security money that you're getting is just an IOU at this juncture.

It's just an IOU. And then we get to the size of government. The size of government. The simple question, in the year 2000, our federal government spent $1.8 trillion. And last I looked in the year 2000, we got along on 1.8 trillion. We're spending $6.6 trillion this year. Joe Biden raised the spending from 4.4 the year before, COVID to 6.6 trillion and all of it is debt.

Yet Janet Yellen, our Treasury Secretary, this adult is out telling us how well they've handled things. Imagine if you were in debt like that. So we're just letting you know some very famous people are getting all kinds of headlines today and all they're doing is mimicking everything we've. said for years and we'll just stay in our little our little place here and that's that i have yet to watch the drunken miller interview i can't wait the bottom line and we'll finish up now there is no way in hell we can continue with this trajectory no freaking chance in hell without the whole thing blowing up

And I don't know what's going to trigger it, and I have no idea what form. But they are taunting you and I. They are taunting the markets. They are taunting the economy. As government gets bigger and bigger and more intrusive over our heads. Have you ever asked yourself the question, why do I have to spend hours doing my taxes? Why do I have to pay an account to do my taxes?

Can't I if I just make this amount, I pay this amount? No. What did they do? They made it as freaking complicated as can be to drive everybody up a wall. The cost to comply is gargantuan, and they don't give a crap. There's like 70,000 pages of tax code, and I'm, And just not just code, but regulations coming out of trials on the tax code and how to go about it and this, that, and the other thing. That's the tax code.

And then there's the Federal Register, the regulations, because we can't handle our own lives, we need them to regulate us. go look up how many pages are in the federal register regulations that we must follow because they who have taken us the $33 trillion of debt, these corrupt, meaningless, ninkum poops that we keep electing tell us we need them or else. And unfortunately, a decent-sized amount of the population believes it. that their lives would never be the same if not for them. Well, I got newsfea. If your life is defined by what a president does or says or a congressman or women or a senator,

you're in trouble in the first place. So I just had to start with that. And we have a lot more we got to cover because the Fed did their thing today. And I have some real specifics here today. So let's segue today. The Fed, as you know, I can. I think Jay Powell is the antichrist of money. I believe he's a nightmare.

He has caused more problems and distortions. I believe he caused the inflation, the bubbles, which popped. The latest bubble is nobody's going from a 3 to an 8% mortgage, so hardly any inventory out there. And I got news to you here in Central Florida. I'm seeing houses going up for sale for $2.5 million that went for sale two years. ago, one and a quarter million, and of course, they're not going to be able to sell it, but that's what people think because there's no inventory because of J-Powl taking rates down to

zero. So he did his things today. I don't watch his press conferences because I don't want to heave up my lunch, but it's nightmarish that he's still running the joint, and we'll just leave it at that. But the bottom line today, whatever he did, whatever he said, remember what I told you in the last two days? I'm just wondering if he leaked it. something. And as I look at the words, and that's all I do right now as I go back what he said, he did say some easy talk, but not enough for me to say, oh, he knew that the market would be up today because of it. So I'm not going to say anything about leaking, even though that was semi-tonging cheek, maybe. So the most important thing today is the 10-year yield went down

0.86 to 4789, farther away from that 5%, which is, which was a recent top. And that's typically good news for the market. So the market today did its usual spastic. It was up. He yapped. The Dow went up 180. Within 15 minutes, it was back to flat.

Within 15 minutes, it was back up 180. The NASDAQ, which was strong early, came all the way down to only up 50, but finished on a high note. But you know what the high note was? the mega caps again. Not all, but there are a few mega caps that are definitely sticking out. And I'm going to be specific to you, as always telling you,

we're not telling you to buy cell shorter cover. We're just going to tell you what we think. So the Dow finished up 221. Okay. That's three days in a row. Nice. You got back 800 points of 1,800 points that happened in eight days. But good.

We're going to use it as a positive. S&P up 44, NASDAQ up 210, NASDAQ 100 up 255. Transport's up 124, but I will say the broad market labored. And what do we mean by that? With the NASDAQ up 210, you should have three and a half to nothing advanced declines on the NASDAQ. Up next, we'll give out the numbers and much more. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off.

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Tommy John. Comfort perfected. message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading

condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere where people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him and walk once again to Investors Edge so the NASDAQ advanced decline today was only 22 up 18 down and may I state for the record when it was up 150 the NASDAQ it was still down advanced declines so that final push into the day the Russell 2000 was down. The midcaps were down. It wasn't to that last push that they actually finished up. My left screen, which has all the smaller tech,

was pretty much 90% red until like the last half hour, but it was still like 60% red. No, not kidding. But, and let me just describe it for you, Amazon. Amazon gapped up on earnings. on Friday and has drifted higher and had another good day today, up almost about 2.9%. You're now in the midst of the 135 to 145 range.

So it's back up in the upper range of the highs of the year, which is pretty damn good. Off of their numbers, I have a definite interest in this stock. I have not bought it yet. I wanted to have the market prove itself before I do anything. We'll see what happens. Facebook, range-bound for four months. Gapped down on earnings but had a decent reversal and has gotten it all back. But now range-bound, good numbers on our watch.

Microsoft. Good reaction to earnings last Wednesday and croaked on Thursday. But got back the good reaction now and is now five months of range bound and another name that is on the top of our list. NVIDIA, I'll give you the best news I can give you, the big $400 level which held in June, in August, in September, and over the last few days of that undercut it yesterday and then bounce back above it today, held today. It is not an uptrend. It's just range bound, but the fact that it held is good news.

For now, a break below 400, bad news. Broadcom, symbol AVGO, a very important semiconductor. range bound for six months earnings decelerating revenue decelerating trading a little bit below the 50 day just range bound I got nothing to do Adobe a software name we like

but range bound for four months the good news back above the all important 50 day moving average today Apple undercut support at 170 it's now back above, doesn't matter.

They report tomorrow after the close. We expect, well, number one, guidance is for a little acceleration from the last quarter. We expect them to beat because that's what they always do. We have no idea how the market reacts. Google, blah. Gap down, bounced a little bit because of a better market. Tesla, blah. Up five bucks today just because of a better market.

That's all I can go with. at this juncture. Those are your big names, and I'll add Netflix, which gapped up on earnings, and now trying to break above the gap. Though, I think it's just going to be a tough business going forward, and whether you can really grow it well, just not so sure. We'll see. Lastly, I can add now one other name in Big Land.

Advanced Micro Devices was down five bucks on earnings last night. Well, it opened up today and then it doesn't matter the reason because earnings were only up 4%. Revenue is only up 4%. Stock was up $9.5.5 on one and a half times volume, breaking back above the 50-day moving average, just in range going back six months, but definitely goes on watch today, would not have been yesterday. So there's some bigger mega cap names that are sticking out for me right now. You had to wait for earnings. We'll see what Apple provides.

And we'll see what happens from here. So good day. Could have been a lot better. I got news via JP Morgan was still down today. 80% of the market is still in downtrends. But better. And one area, I'll give it two areas now. since interest rates are coming down for the last little bit of time we're letting you know that utilities the xLU

looks like it's trying to turn up here looks like it and the housing which we traded perfectly into the high back in august yesterday we thought it was starting to curl up today real good day up about three and a half percent and maybe that's turning up and if that's indicative of interest rates going to continue to come down, that's not bad news. And that's all we're really watching. Interest rates. Not what some bozo says, J. Powell, interest rates. And it was a good day today. Now, as we also tell you now, if the market's going to get better, more names will show up on the New Yearly High list. Your job, go look at the New Yearly High list every night or every night. morning and we'll see what tomorrow brings. That's how we roll. Now there's also this,

I'm going to give you a little confusion. Very often, whatever happens on the Fed day, the opposite happens the next day. True. If the market's down big on Fed day, it's up the next day. If the market's up big on Fed day, it's down the next day. We'll see what that brings tomorrow. I've already done my scans. I can add a few names to the plus side of the column, but not many. And most of them earnings reactions. Garmin, New Yearly High at the close today. The cement stocks that were acting well and then got trashed, good reaction to earnings today.

Wingstop! I've never eaten there. Up 10 bucks? Excuse me. Wingstop was up 13 bucks today. Make sure that's right. Yeah. on volume.

Good increase in sales and earnings. Stock's done nothing for eight months, but that was a good day today. I may have to go visit the place. Any of you ever go to Wing Stop, let me know if you think it's good or not. I'm not a big chicken wing guy, but I'll dabble every now and then.

So, good day today, lots of warts, most things in downtrends, but definite improvement. and the interest rate environment, if that has changed. Screwed Jay Powell. If the interest rate environment changes, that could be some good news. We'll see what happens next.

Remember also, everybody's bearish, everybody thinks the world's ending. We just watch the market and definitive improvement, but it's definitely on the big cap front. The small caps look like the south end of a northbound jackass. Or in other words, the New York Giants coaches, who handed a game over to the Jets last week. My God, how do you lose that game? Just let me coach the last minute and a half and you win. No, really? Football teams, man. But I must say they've given me a bunch of Super Bowls, so I got to be happy with that.

I still remember when they beat Brady, when they were going for the season with no losses and they actually won the game. David Tyree. And of course, the first Super Bowl is when they won't beat Denver. I know exactly where I was. I was at the Riviera Hotel with my firm up in the penthouse, watching the game. They were Denver Bronco fans and I had to hide in the bedroom with two other giant fans because they would have kicked my, you know what, if I, because they beat the Broncos

pretty handling. And that is our football of the day. So bunch covered, already did my scans. I'm going to accentuate the positive. Hey, just give me a few stocks, I'm happy. They're bigger. And now we get to see, oh, I've got to add one more thing, Japan. Big overnight in Japan and some strong looking stocks, Toyota Motor was up $10 today on their earnings.

Very nice. Up next. News of the day. And then I'm gone. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. All right. In the news. I just been reading up about this ozempic and effect on Wall Street, and this is just on Wall Street.

I don't know if you know this, but snack food makers, food stocks, some of the restaurant chains that serve pizza, that type of stuff, this stocks are getting kicked in the teeth. And they're actually commenting that the reason this is going on, that's me punching my keyboard. by the way, is because of OZembeck and what it may do for people in their eating habits. And I've been really doing a deep dive on it. I think there is that shot. And I have to tell you, do you know who Kelly Clarkson is? She was the original American Idol. Yeah, I think she was original.

and she now is a very famous, first of all, great voice. But she has a talk show now, and I don't watch any talk shows. Once Johnny Carson passed away, I'm done. But she has a talk show during the day. I used to watch Oprah though every now and then. In the last few months, she went from not in really good shape to skinny. She looks great. And everybody's saying, and I don't think.

she's commented, but everybody's saying it's the OZempec. Well, what that means is what I guess it does is it stifles appetite. So just letting you know, what is it, Ozempic and Wagovi by Novo Nordisk

and Eli Lili's Manjaro. I wonder how do they come up with these names? Do they like suck down five shots of tequila and get a little wasted? Let's name manjari anyway they're projecting that the numbers going forward is going to add so much and shares a craft hinds 13% over the same period hershies is down 19 coke and Pepsi 9 and 13% so i

do think something's going on there whether it lasts or not i don't know but just something to think about and that's why you really do have to stay on your toes on wall street just so you know Hershey's stocks gone from 276 to 187 since April. Yeah, think long term. And that's actually like a good one. There are stocks that's worse than that. And that's why we stay on top of things as much as we can, but it ain't easy.

You just put your best foot forward. But again, it really is not that easy. In the news, China. So in case you don't know, I've been to China. I'm never going back. I can never go back to Hong Kong. I'm just worried about this government and what they do. They are jailing people that disagree with the government.

And I've been on TV saying things about the government. I'm wondering if they're following and I get there and they put me away. Oh, well, because I've got to tell you, it was a fabulous trip. Anyway, part of my trip, we just got into a car with a guide. And we were going, I don't remember where we were going, but from one city to next. And we were always told about ghost cities, and we passed a bunch of them. And I'm not talking about ghost buildings. We're talking real cities they built.

And now the property market there, which is debt-laden, is in, looks like, some pretty big trouble. and they've had some bankruptcies of some big property developers and they want to arrest the CEOs even though they were the government was in cahoots on it

something to watch I don't know if you know this and really up until the last few months I never even checked back the FXI which is the China ETF FXI

and you can go look what's in. It's the Futsi China 50 index. It's trading at 2548. That's where it was trading in 2006. And on the high of 2007, it hits 73. It's now 2548. So I don't know what the hell's going on there, but something's going on there.

And there's been some China ADRs that have been acting well. We haven't touched them. We missed out on some gains on some. We saved a lot of money on others. Just give you an idea how we think and how we look at things. And all I know is we saw ghost cities. Absolute ghost cities. And I mean cities that they built that were just plain old empty.

Plain old empty. So we'll watch. But the big story is we're past the Fed. We'll see what happens tomorrow. and some big mega camp names are showing up. Not Google, not Tesla. Amazon is sticking out. Microsoft's sticking out.

A lesser extent is Facebook. Apple is Tamar. Nvidia, the best thing we can tell you, it held vital support. We'll see if it can get going. The Semiconductor Index had an update today off of AMD still trading below the 200 day moving average but a good day again with warts and there was still 417 new yearly lows today on a day where the market had another

big cap day we'll keep you informed but big cap over small cap big cap big cap over mid cap a few of these mega cap names and get all over things that are showing up on the new yearly high list, as well as the great reactions to earnings. And hopefully we've seen the low for a while, though the Russell 2000 is still down 33% from two years ago plus. NASDAQ is down about 16%, but we'll take any update. You have a great evening drive carefully. Usually I'm with Varney tomorrow, but I will be off tomorrow. Got some things to do.

Until the same time tomorrow, when you get home, very simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Thanks for joining. Always a privilege and honor that you would listen.

Peace out all. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

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