Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Fed Blabs

Episode Date: February 1, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. I think it's February 1st, 2023. And we're here to talk about a lot. Now, first off, let me state we did a holiday show yesterday. our staff is in what we call icy road places and no way we wanted them to drive. I saw videos of cars just smashing into each other because they could not break. So that was that.

We're doing the show a different way today. I don't know if it sounds a little bit different. Beats the heck out of me. But we got the show going today. We do have a lot. We do want to discuss. I hope you are listening and very carefully. Leading up to yesterday, we have told you markets been improving, but we got earnings reports to come out.

We've been telling you that things are better, but we have Jay Powell to deal with, and that was today. Yesterday, we're just telling you what we told our peeps yesterday. If there was no Jay Powell today, yesterday, we would have been looking to buy the crap out of the market. That was my quote. And I say that because, man, just remember what we do here is we look at what is known as pattern recognition. Up trends and downtrends. Whether the uptrens and down trends are really getting going. how many names, reaction to earnings, even bad earnings, and all we can tell you coming into yesterday,

things were looking decent. At the close yesterday, things were looking really good. And then today, I'm not even going to spend a moment on Jay Powell and what he said. We're just going to tell you two things. First, they raised rates a quarter point. That's number one. They raised rates a quarter point. You got that? That was about as expected as expected can be.

Number two, we'll start off with a question. What have we been telling you the most important part of the equation was? What have we been harping on? that the direct correlation for markets and what? What have we been telling you that the markets like and some areas of the markets love, yields, the 10-year yield. And all we can tell you today is two things.

The Dow is up seven points. pay absolutely no attention to it. The next thing I want to say is the 10-year yield down to 3.397. You got that? It was down 132 today. The NASDAQ up 231, NASDAQ 100 up 261, the semiconductors up 151, the transports up 549. When we did our webcast last night, we said if the semiconductors break above this range, they broke above this range. If the transports break above this range, they broke above this range.

So two very important areas broke above that range today. Notice, I'm just using, not even giving you the numbers, I'm just making a point. And that's the story. Vance DeKlines, three to one on the New York. 2913 on the NASDAQ with the Dow only up seven what did we tell you that we love the Dow up seven the NASDAQ up 231 what do we hate the Dow up seven the NASDAQ down 231 so we're letting you know we don't give a crap what Powell said we think he sucks we don't think he has a clue we think he caused all the inflation.

He's being treated like some sort of hero now. He's a yachts. Same with the rest of the central banks. That should be abolished immediately. They do nothing for nobody. What they have done well is they enabled massive amounts of debt and deficits. Massive amounts of debt and deficits. Which eventually, you know what's going to happen.

The big, freaking gigantic blow-up. but we're not there markets looking higher that's all that's all I got to say markets are looking higher led by the areas that led down because interest rates skyrocketed and now interest rates are plunging and now they're leading back up now it's not going to be all and there's a lot of work to be done but range was taken out today on a bunch of names the semis the transports I've used yet to go through the rest. That's the story. That's the simple story of the day. So when TV tonight on your network comes out and states to you, well, the Dow is only up six. We say to you,

they don't even know what the hell they're talking about. They don't even know what the hell they're looking at. We're telling you the market was a thousand times better than that today and let's hope it continues. Simple as that. And we leave it at that in specifics. Now we have Facebook after the close, which is up nicely in the aftermarket, and that's helping things in the aftermarket. We've got Apple, Amazon, and Google after the close tomorrow, and that's that. Excellent action. The permeable. bears, which had their way for so long, are not having their way now. The permibuls are telling you how great they are now, even though they're full of crap, because they were telling you to buy

all the way down while you were destroyed on anything they told you. Pay no attention to either. The permabuls are having their way right now. They'll get screwed going forward. On the next bear leg down. Facebook after the close, you ready for this beauty? Expectations were for $2.23. They came in at $1.76. I'm not seeing anything great as far as guidance, but something they say has the stock going from 153 to 173 in the aftermarket. That's a big move for that stock. I own none. It's been the big bear market. And may I state for the record that earnings report that Facebook just came out with, $1.76 versus last year's 367.

Earnings were down over 50%. I do not see anything yet that they said that's driving it in the aftermarket. I gather we'll find out soon enough. But that's the story in the aftermarket. And much more tomorrow. And by the way, I'm seeing nothing on guidance. That's the amazing part. And by the way, I call them Facebook.

I don't know why they changed their name to meta. It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen. If anything else comes in, we'll let you know. But pay no attention to the Dow up only 6.92 today. Market lit up like a pinball machine in a bunch of areas. In the Dow, you had travelers down six. United Health down two, McDonald's down one, Honeywell down two, Caterpillar down three, Chevron down two, Amgen down six, American Express down one. That did it. But let us repeat. Let us repeat. And we've said this many a time. We hate when the Dow is up seven and the NASDAX down 231. We love when the Dow is up seven and the NASDAX up 231. there's your risk appetite.

And may I say the risk appetite is on bad earnings? AMD reported earnings. They were terrible. Stock was up strong. Up next, more on these markets and whatever else. I'm Gary. Thanks to being here. This is the one and only Investor's Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living. specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

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What's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And what once again, two investors. Edge. Thanks for being with us today. So today's market wrap is brought to by Investment

dash models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. As we said, Dow Up 7. The NASDA, excuse me, let's do the S&P first, was up the equivalent of 340 Dow points. The NASDAQ today was up the equivalent of 680 Dow points. NASDAQ 100 even better, and the SOX even better than that. Transports up 3.5%. Old Dominion Freight up $33 on earnings.

J.B. Hunt up 7, FedExpiders up 5, Avis Renekar up 10, Union Pacific up 3 in change, rider up 2, Norfolk Southern up 3, Landstar up 6. So good day on the transports. And let me state for the record again. Advance the clines, 3,056 up, 1,087 down on the New York, with the Dow only up 7. NASDAQ 2978 up, 1305 down. And that is the story.

And as I go through my screen here, remember in the bare market, we were just heading lower all the stocks that were topping out and getting crushed, they are coming up the sides now. Remember how we've described it for you? Stair steps. Stair steps down, stair steps up. The stair steps are now moving up. How far I have no clue. When does it end? I have no clue. During all the rallies of the last 15 months, we knew within a day or two when the top was in, sometimes to the day. We have stated for you this rally is much, much better, is much much better than any other rally we have had. I don't have to say to you, new bull market. to bear market, bull market, bear market, bear market, bull market. All I need to be saying,

we are in an uptrend. It is gaining more strength. Bad earnings is being bought. Facebook just announced a 50% drop in earnings. I still do not see the news after the close accounting for the move. Maybe they're going to sell weed. I don't know. Don't know what the reason is. Don't care. It has the NASDAQ futures up again, yeah, six-tenths of a percent. Tomorrow we get Apple, Amazon, Google, Qualcomm, Starbucks, a few others. Starbucks may not do as well, though. I stopped having espressoes four months ago. And I can tell you, I had two triple espressoes every day from Starbucks.

And the reason it's their triples are everybody. else's doubles. Okay. Facebook. The first thing they announce, earnings. $1.76 versus $223. Now they're coming out and saying they actually did $3 a share, 70 cents better. I got to look that over. I got two separate reports. I got to figure it out. Anyway, Facebook is now 180 in the aftermarket up $27 in the aftermarket. Dang, I don't own any. The good news is, I haven't owned any all the way down. By the way, Facebook's highs were September of 21 at 384. It's 180, so it'll still be down 54% into tomorrow. But I got to figure out what these numbers are.

Have a nice gap to the upside. That won't hurt the market tomorrow. So hope you are catching my drift. The stair steps are moving up. Whole sectors are breaking above ranges. We've also been telling you what to avoid, and we've been right on those, the managed care stocks, a bunch of the consumer staples,

a bunch of the oils, which had a rough day to day. they bounce with a better market and sundry other stuff but as a whole tech related higher beta related growth related semiconductor related are in gear right now i repeat i want you to listen carefully unlike the people who keep telling you where the market's going to be at the end of the year. I love the ones that say, well, we're going to have a good first quarter, a bad second quarter, a good third. Yeah, sure. Unlike them, we have no clue where things will be at the end of the year. What we will be watching for is changes and additions. Additions meaning further breaks above the stair steps and ranges. More stocks participating will also be watching for the wall.

You don't mean we mean by the wall. Where the wall hits. That's all. By the way, if Facebook did $3, earnings would still be down 18% year over year. But I got to figure that out. Two different reports. Maybe they'll fix that.

And that's the story. Not so sure I have to add too much. I would suggest it was some panicky short covering today, but that's part of bull markets. And all we can tell you is stair steps for more names. That's it. And until that dynamic changes, it's folly to be bearish,

except for the areas we are telling you to be bearish on. The big themes, bear on the dollar, bull on the other currencies. Bull on bonds, bear on the yields. That's the direct. correlation, bull on software, bull on semiconductors. The S&P is actually weaker than everything because it has everything in it, but now the S&P is averaging above range. It just won't move as fast. And what's laboring now? The Dow. The Dow is actually the laboring segment. Up next,

more on this, that and the other thing or whatever else. I'm Gary. Thanks for being here. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. This message is brought. brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might

someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual. Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just. on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And once again, to Investors Edge.

Thanks for being with us today. Hope you're having a good day. Notice, we have no bias. We let the market decide. We were big bears. We converted, not because of predictions. It's what the market was telling. us and we'll see where it takes us. The NASDAQ really just started up on January 6th.

Just remember on January 6th before that day, you were probing the closing lows of the bare market. But right now it's getting going and there can be more. Now you got Facebook up big in the aftermarket. That should help. I got news for you. If Apple, Amazon and Google, have good reactions uh boom and very simply we'll see where this takes us i have to repeat again we have absolutely no clue how far this goes or how long it lasts but range was taken out today i will tell you the qqq nazdac 100 moved above range the nasdaq uh the nasdaq uh the nasdaq uh the nazdac uh moved above range and we're talking about above range we're talking about you have to go back to september moved above the range of november end of november and december on both the nasdaq

and the nasdaq 100 so you got a bunch of things moving above range and there's this thought oh the day after central moves on central banks whatever they do you get the opposite the next day I don't know. All we can tell you was what happened and the weight of the evidence. And I said yesterday to my peeps before today, if there wasn't the central bank today, yesterday buy the crap out of the market. That's what we really thought.

And now you had this move today. My thought processes, any pullback you buy the crap out of the market. I would love to see a nice, calm, controlled, quiet pullback right here. We'll see if we get it. The problem is you got all these earnings reports coming out now. And who knows? So that be the story. Got some news.

Want you to know about. Nikki Haley running for president. I got emails on her today. What do I think? I don't have a great opinion. How's that? Just like most politicians, she's been very inconsistent with her opinions. Love Trump, hey Trump, love Trump, love Trump, hey Trump. You're one or the other. And we'll see what she has to say when she comes out. Everybody gets their shot. Next, the Biden administration is proposing a rule to lower credit card late fees.

The rule put forward by their Consumer Financial Protection Bureau aims to lower penalties to $8 from as much as $41 for a missed payment. Interesting. Now, I hate hate government. interference with business. There's nothing I like about it. So I'll leave it at that. But on the other end, boy, the credit cards get away with a lot. They get away with a lot. They get away with a lot. They get away with the hell of the lot. So I can't be mad at him. Normally I would be. I don't like them interfering. I will be agnostic on this. Let's see if it even gets done because you know

who today is yelling and screaming about this. The lobbyists for all the credit card companies. And boy, oh boy, they're going to be out in droves. What else? The article savers will benefit from return to sound money. I think I'm going to throw up when I read that. Duh, it's not sound money, it's normal money. It's real markets. It's free markets. Jay Powell screwed all the savers.

He's Teflon because he's not a politician. If he was a politician, he'd be ripped the shreds. But there's no use in rip in him because he's just in the central bank. You can get 4.6% on a one year, 4.2% on a two year. By the way, you go out five years, it's only 3.5%. That's how inverted the yield curve is. And that's what all the bare market people are holding their hats on, a big recession coming. Well, I can tell you, market ain't saying that right now.

So all of a sudden we got sound money again. Great. Next, investors shrug off weak earnings, the stocks rebound to start the year. Duh. Just reading a title of an article. article for you. D. AMD reported a gargantuan drop in earnings. Up, uh, let's see about 11% today, AMD.

Amazingly. Facebook's earnings down. Up huge in the aftermarket. I'm going to have to look at that tomorrow. We love gaps in stocks. What else in the news? Joe Biden. Do you know they have a thing called Joe Biden's big oil profits?

Exxon reported a. gargantuan profit. And you know, all the crazies are all pissed off. Even though Exxon lost a ton of money during COVID, it's all pretty funny to watch. I love companies making big profits. I love profits. I hate. And hate's not a big word when I talk about them.

The government. 31.5 trillion of debt says so. Next, you know this talk on Social Security, right? You do know Social Security is a government program, right? You do know Social Security is your money, right? You do know Social Security is your money that they took out of your paycheck and they put it somewhere else, right? You do know that basically that money's gone and they got to pay you now with the retirees of today, right? There's your government.

You do know we never used to pay taxes on Social Security. you do know it started off at a certain number. Now I think it's up to those 100 and some odd thousand bucks that you have to give into. You do know that, right? Because they hate the people that make money. You do know they screwed up because they forgot about demographics and the progression of the country and the world and people living longer because of the invention of new medicines.

Right? You do know that. they screwed it all up. You do know the Democrats are all threatening the Republicans because the Republicans want to look at it because something needs to be done and the Democrats are saying, look what they're trying to do to you,

even though it's the Democrats and the Republicans that caused this problem. And you do realize the Democrats have great marketing. They keep saying, oh, they're throwing grandma off a cliff. They're good at that. We're just letting you know the facts. We're just letting you know we have no bias. We're just letting you know eventually something's going to be done.

It has to. Or else, I suspect they're going to have to change retirement age or move the age up on when you get it. I don't know if they can do means testing because that's wrong. How do you do means testing? Oh, if you make too much money, you don't get the money back you were supposed to get back. But I promise you they're going to look at that. we're just letting you know if they don't do something about it eventually they will be forced to do something about it because that's how they are over there up next this that and the other

thing or whatever else i thank you for being here i'm gary this is the one only investor's edge this message is brought to you by the capital one venture x card venture x offers the premium benefits you expect like a three hundred dollar annual capital travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include

buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Coltbaugh. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. hope you're having a good day again yesterday we didn't do the show because we have staff

that was in the midst of I guess in Texas I mean just pure ice and if you saw some video there were cars going five miles an hour and could not stop their cars and would run into other cars so stay off the road

was the best thing and today same thing but we ended up doing the show a little different way. So we are delivering the show today. Big picture, January 6th, we said to you we thought the complexion had changed, that we're going to have some sort of rally. We have had a few of those rallies before during the bear market. That lasted anywhere from a day to many weeks. As this one has played out, it's much different, much better, much broader, more areas of risk appetite, and it gets better by the day. We have highlighted for you for a very long time, for a very long time, how in the bear market,

we had days with the Dow was flat and the NASDAQ was down 200. Well, today the Dow was flat and the NASDAQ was up 230. That's what we want to see. And let's hope it continues. We do not need to tell you where things will be at the end of the year. We don't need to predict. We just have to get the trend right. And all we can tell you is the trend when above range today,

transports, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, 100, semiconductors. And until that trend changes, all pullbacks, are viable. And as you know, during the bear market, every high in the bear we called within a day or two. Other big pictures, we remain bearish on the dollar versus other currencies. A direct correlation. Direct correlation between the dollar strength and our market weakness and the dollar weakness in the market strength. We remain bullish on the bond market, which means yields are lower.

Direct correlation between yields lower, market higher. There is all this talk about inverted yield curve, and they're right. In the past, inverted yield curves have always, always led to recessions of impact. So far, this has not. and in fact, areas that usually telegraph recessions have been strong. So we don't know what's at work there and don't care. Well, eventually we may care. We'll see.

Right now, the two-year yield is at 4-1 with the 10-year at 3-4. The 1-year yield is at 4-6 with the 10-year at 3-4. In normal times, it's the opposite. You're supposed to get paid more going out longer to account for time. So that's still going on. But again, the market doesn't give a crap. Why? The direct correlation between the 10-year yield and the dollar, both weaker and the market stronger.

We have also stated for the record, correlations never last forever. we will watch to see if and when that correlation changes. And we will advise. We will let you know. We will tell you, just know, another day today with improvement, with companies, stocks going very nicely higher, on crappy numbers, very crappy numbers. Now maybe eventually there will be Hector Pay.

We'll worry about it when that time comes. All we know right now, January 6th changed the complexion, and this rally has been much stronger than any other rally. Is it possible we have seen the lows of the bare market? Well, I am pretty darn sure a lot of things have. Pretty darn sure. But we remain very worried. heading to 32 trillion of debt, massive deficits,

heading towards one trillion bucks a year in interest payments on that debt, just go into nothing. A president that just took growth of government from $4.4 trillion up to six in one shot, and I say that from 2019 to today, because I don't count the COVID years, and they don't care. They don't care. the Republicans are showing they care now.

They didn't care under Trump. And guess what? Biden has played him politically. Biden came out and said, oh, you want to cut? Show us your budget. Perfect maneuver politically by Biden. Let's see what the Republicans bring. I doubt it's going to be much.

So longer term, you know what we think. Dead explosion. Right now, market got its group. There's always this thought the day after the Fed, the opposite will happen. I'll worry about it. Right now, Facebook, up 28 bucks in the aftermarket. 18%. Looks like they did beat.

I will double check, but it looks like. Tomorrow, Apple, Amazon, Google, Qualcomm, Starbucks, and a bunch of others. Oh, I mean a bunch of others. Decker's Outdoor, Microchip, Skechers, and that's just the afternoon. In the morning, I forgot, Ali Baba, Honeywell and Merck in the Dow, Penn National, Snap-on, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Cardinal Health,

Goose! I just bought my son a goose jacket. They're pretty expensive. Gee whiz are they expensive. I'm a nice dad. So, tomorrow will be another. other Mui Importante Day, but we can tell you flat out, very good day today. You'll have a great evening, drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your

family, make sure you hug your children. They will feel better, you will feel better. I promise. Have a great evening, everybody. Tomorrow I'll be on with Stuart Varney at 10 a.m. Fox Business, check it out. Have a great evening. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk dot com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to overwork.

1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.