Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Fed...Unfortunately

Episode Date: May 3, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cbs.com or just come by store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. A, thanks of being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is, it is, yeah, May 3rd. It's a 2000 and 23. It's Wednesday. Hope you're having a very good day. We're going to try and not bore you to death today, but unfortunately we have to mention him because he was front and center today. We'll get into that in a minute. But first, Knicks are now one in one in basketball. I got to tell you, I got to hand it to the Lakers, left for dead, and now they're a 1-0 on Golden State. Yeah, it's basketball time, ladies and gentlemen. I got to hand it to him.

LeBron James, I have moved him up to number two. I've moved him up to number two. Nobody's ever getting ahead of Jordan, but he's got my number two now. And he's a great man also. Anybody who takes care of children and builds schools and does so much philanthropy is good by me. What a great man. But he's number two. Even though Bill Russell, what, do you have, 11 championships or 12?

I'm putting him at number two behind Jordan. And there's a simple reason why Jordan always stays number one. Simple. He was mugged every game. That's why. If Michael Jordan played today the way the defenses are, he'd be like 50 and 12 every night. And that would be easily. If you go back and check, I know we're doing a little sports at the beginning.

The videos, 50 a game. Without hogging the ball, because he dished the ball, was the all defensive team a ton of years? Anyway, it's turning out to be some pretty good basketball. Knicks won one, but the heat that's about only one, barely, and the heat didn't have Jimmy Butler, who's dang, I want him on my team. Man's man. Okay, that's our sports of today.

If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. Moloos posted on a Twitter feed, which we once had 90,000 followers and we wake up the next morning. We only had 30,000. Interesting. It happened the same week where they shut me down for a week because I said Bernie Sanders' economic policy is communistic. Yeah, they shut me down for a day while the mullers in Iran are calling for the death to Israel. Yeah, I'm going to do a lot of harm, right?

Anyway, thanks for being with us today. If you'd like to email me, just be nice. everybody's been very nice. I don't get really anything bad anymore. I get people disagreeing and that's just a okay. I get along with the Marxists and Socialists that email me. I completely disagree with them. I hope I try to convert them, try to make them understand that why. You want people to control your life? And I've converted a few. All right, now let me bore you to death. the Fed raise rates today a quarter point

to 5-5.5 and a quarter. I had absolutely no idea how the market would react but just so you know whatever the market did today it'll probably do a little bit of the opposite tomorrow that's what usually happens. We'll get to that in a bit. They had a press conference I can't watch it

because I'd bust the TV. Nothing personal these people do not have a clue, not a single solitary clue about what they're doing, how they're doing it, what the cost of what they're doing. You already know because I've been highlighting them forever how bad they have been. We predicted everything. We predicted the bubbles. We predicted the bubbles would crash. We predicted inflation. The inflation came. and then they're so bad that when inflation came, they didn't know it. They didn't know it.

And then when it finally reared its ugly head, they finally said, yeah, but it's transitory. Don't worry. And then when they realized, oh, crap, then they started to make their move while they were just so behind the real market that they were no longer controlling. Remember, they printed to $9 trillion to control the markets. They played God with markets, the stupidest, most moronic thing you can ever do. We told you when used a word a thousand times, they're going to create distortions, and when the distortions unwind look out, and we don't know where that's going to be, but oh, it's going to be. And now you're seeing it in the banks.

What were the distortions? They force banks to go out long on the spectrum of the bond market just to make anything, because it was six-tenths of one percent at the 10-year. And now that they lost a ton of money off of those bets, guess what they did? The same people that caused that, the central bank came and said, hey, just so you know, even though you're down 20%, we're marking you to zero. So you can come to us and we'll mark it zero. So you don't have any losses, even though you do have losses.

And even though, now, I don't know if you know this, the central bank printed to $9 trillion dollars and bought up the bond market. They've lost the trillion dollars. our central bank that's telling us they're going to save the world lost the trillion bucks on their bond bets but they're not really bets because they're not taking any risk because they're printing the money out of thin air and it's really nobody's money it's not in anybody's pocket it's not in their pocket they're certainly not going to risk any of their bucks it's phantom stuff and you ask gary how is this possible how can it be oh it be and i don't get it you know government's supposed to have accountability

supposed to have oversight i don't know how we got to the place where one man One man and his whims and his moves can print a $9 trillion and there's no oversight or accountability. It's sickening. But then again, you look at the people supposed to have oversight and give accountability, and they've taken us the $32 trillion of debt, so they've not been accountable to us and to themselves. So we're screwed. Just remember, at the end of this, at the end of this road, we're screwed. It's all going to blow up.

in what way, shape, or form I don't know, but it will. It's impossible not to. And due to the fact, we've called this and nailed this big time since day one. We predicted everything. You may want to listen to us. But it may be five years from now, it may be three years from now, it may be one year from now. It may be tomorrow. Seriously, 32 trillion of debt.

Our president's telling us he's lowered the deficits. He's going to run a record deficit this year. Proposed 6.8 trillion in spending. 4.4 trillion was our spending just in 2019, the year before COVID. The increase in the size of their government, 55% overnight. We're screwed. And we'll let you know. The market will show itself.

Now, we had a bad day today, but again, let me be clear. Whenever we have a bad day off the Fed, the next day will rally up a little bit. or a lot. When we have a good day off the Fed, we'll drop the next day. That's the MO. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Just leave no doubt not a good day at the end of the day today. Very mushy.

We've yet to do our scans. We'll see. So he said this, that, and the other thing during the press conference. I read the few things. I couldn't watch it. And all I can tell you, he don't know what he's doing. He has no idea what he's doing. Doesn't have a clue.

Single solitary clue. You know, used to predict but they stopped predicting because they were always wrong so you know what they always say now the data dependent when the data comes in will act well how is it little old me i don't have 5,000 analysts like they do how's it little old me don't need to be data dependent we can tell you what's going on we can tell you in front of things and you know why we don't have a butler getting our food at the supermarket we don't have a driver driving us in our bentley like they have so they're not living in the real world

so whatever he said blah blah blah whatever he thought blah blah blah blah maybe they'll do this maybe they'll do that going forward blah blah blah blah we'll wait to see what happens blah blah blah blah all we can tell you is they raise the quarter point today if it would us we wouldn't it's very simple the free market is down at 3.4% the 10 year yield is down at 3.4% there was no reason to raise rates today

but they're God God is spoken they actually think they're omnipotent. And the reason they get no blame is we have stated to you, they are not elected. If they were elected, they'd get blame. But there is no, the politicians get nothing out of blaming him, so they just blame somebody else. And of course, they blame Biden, who is part of the inflation because of his ridiculous spending. But ladies and gentlemen, it was Jay Powell, nine trillion says so.

Up next, today's market wrap. Movers of the day, news of the day, whatever else. Today, I'm Gary. This is the one, only investors edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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you the question to talk Pharmaceutical, patrocinoed by GSC. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay. That wasn't so boring, was it? Okay.

You know what stood out for me today? and this is everything to do with you and your money and then we'll get all markets have any you but we've talked about portland we've talked about chicago we've talked about san francisco here we've talked about minneapolis and their police problem there we talked about new york city has anybody really been reading about san francisco and what's been going on there i i have a couple of friends that live there and they've been uh telling me there are places they can no longer go to would not no longer risk life and limb. No, really. But that's not what I want to really talk about in San Francisco because do you know how we got the $32 trillion of debt? You know how we had the inflation? You know all the craziness that's going on? And you know how we got that?

Because the median doesn't do their job because they're whims. They're wussies. So in San Francisco, and of course, COVID, without a doubt, it's something to do with it. but office space I can go on and on but businesses are leaving the latest is Nordstrom is shutting two big stores in San Francisco and they said very specifically we are leaving because of the deteriorating situation crime in the city Now, they wouldn't throw any blame. They didn't yell or scream.

They used the terms the dynamics of downtown San Francisco have changed dramatically over past seven years, impacting customer for traffic to our stores and ability to operate successfully. You've got to be careful. What they say, they don't want to piss off people. Have we seen one interview by one journalist of the representative of that district from the House of Representatives, from the House of Representatives, in that district asking what are you doing about what's going on in San Francisco? Have you seen one interview, just one, and asking just a simple, easy question? The answer is no. Do you know who the representatives is?

it's Nancy Pelosi that's why you have not seen any interviews because if a journalist dare ask her that question she'll get them canned she'll get them fired she'll get them off the beat because journalists do not do their job anymore

unless they don't like you or unless they feel like they can there's no more open-ended journalism anymore If I'm a journalist, the first thing I'm doing is I am corraling Ms. Pelosi. She's a representative of us. What are you doing about the dilapidation of San Francisco? But no, not one. And therein lies.

That's how it works. DeSantis here in Florida, you should see how they're going after him. Why they deem him not a friend. And they have some good questions. And of course they lie about him. They keep calling it the don't say gay bill. and there's nothing to do. It's just a pure lie. But I just had to make this point because I'm thinking to myself today, wait a minute.

Not once have they asked her. Not once. Because they can't. And that's the shame. Just wanted to bring that up. It just hit me today because I know some other businesses that are leaving San Francisco soon. Not announced yet. Gone. History out of there.

A recently opened Whole Foods market, a beautiful Whole Foods markets closed within a year. A Target store down there, everything is on lockdown. I had to just mention that. And that has everything to do with you and your money because the more cities that do that, the more were screwed even more. Anyway, the market wrap brought you by Investment-Models.com.

That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. With his proprietary indicators, go check it out. investment dash models.com well let me just put it put it best went up 100 went down 100 went up 150 went down 150 went up to that's what the market did as j powell announced the quarter point and did the press conference but surprising to me Dow finished down 270 that surprises me s and p down 28 NASDAQ 55 NASDAQ 183 the SOX 40 advanced the client were really good early at the close was 1623 New York only 2021 in the NASDAQ you're ready for this more new yearly lows on the New York than new yearly highs and four times new yearly lows than new yearly highs on the NASDAQ and that's been something been going on for a while but just remember what I said and I'm not kidding when I say this typically don't know if it's been a hundred percent of the time whenever the market moves one way on Fed day it moves the other way the next day will we get it all back don't know will we be up tomorrow don't

know just telling you what typically happens I have no idea why by the way apples after the close tomorrow that'll be something to watch so those are the final numbers but again just whipping all over the place just so you know the Dow rally to drop a hundred points in 15 seconds off of this man's words it's it's insane one man's words who's been wrong on everything can move tens of billions of dollars in seconds it's unreal and we should not be here you know my first job first move as president would be of the united states first move i don't think i'm be allowed to abolish the fed oh there'd be a muzzle and there'd be

reins. There'd be a muzzle on them and there'd be rains. And their only acts could be of crisis acts. Otherwise, take a frickin' hike. That'd be my first move. First move out of the box. We'd get back to free markets again, which they're supposed to be. What a concept, huh? Free markets. Buying and selling and trading of investors, speculators and traders. At a certain price, at a certain time, at a certain size, without the interference of nine trillion bucks. I'm not sure anybody understands how much nine trillion bucks is. It's a heck of a lot. Any screwed savers?

Up next. Much more. Much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors at. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script. The podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health. questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving

into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut

health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now, wherever you get. your podcasts. At the the 50, I've learned some things, like the

value of the family, the importance of the time, and that the 99% of the people of

the people that cause a Culebrilla. Although not all the people in risk, they're

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way about your doctor or pharmaceutical. So what do this animal And this animal And this animal? Have in common?

They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms That protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it From toxic pesticides, Which leads to a thriving ecosystem And delicious, nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovi.coop and taste the difference. to America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Always thanks for being with us. We're dead serious about everything, whether you are or not.

A few thoughts on markets. So we manage. our own money for a living we manage others for a living we consult with just so you know we have a consulting business with funds that manage bazillions of of dollars they ask for our thoughts and basically what they ask about is the main trends which are pretty darn good at we think and we've proven it to you time and time again what we get a lot of And a lot.

One was today where we got a, hey, I was bought some Moderna at 180. It's 130. What should I do? That was one today. And Madonna reports, I think, tomorrow. But that's besides the point. There are two words that if you or anybody involved with you and your money do not have, you should get out of investing in anything.

Just two simple words. Sell rules. How are you going to prevent buying something at 180 and sitting here at 130? How are you going to prevent that going forward? When we get accounts transferred in, very often we'll get stocks come in that are weighed down. And what I'll say to these people, just so you know, these are in no man's land. So it's much tougher call, but we're going to do is I can only deal from here and where it's at and make sure underneath here there's some stoppage.

So just mind you, make sure you got some sell rules. Or else, look at all the damage that's been done in stocks over the last two years. It's a lot. And we never wanted to happen to you. Where I got my cell rules from was twofold. first William O'Neill he has the

7 to 10 7% rule something like that but I don't even like that but somebody else the greatest hedge fund manager one of the greatest of all times Paul Tudor Jones I'm paraphrasing here

said that I know a lot of people that manage money that have better percentage wins versus losses than I but I I beat the pants off them in returns because I have cell rules. And it's what you do when you're wrong. That is more important than what you do when you're right.

Equally are more important. And I think you want to say, well, let me state, there's no perfection in that. But the one thing you do have, is protection in that. So just remember that. I can list thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of stocks that are down 50 to 90%.

I can tell you city group is still down 90% from 08. Did a 1 for 10 split. City group. Back then, you had to own city group forever. It's Citigroup. And the list goes on and on. Of companies that were so damn famous and nothing could ever go wrong that some turned into dust. We know about the financials, but there are a ton of technology.

Anybody remember Lucent or Nortel or WorldCom? You know, they all gave topping out clues. The crash of 87, I've studied it, gave topping out clues. I am highly confident that if I was doing this back in 87 and I wasn't, I would have been 100% in cash a month before the crash. I wouldn't have been able to predict the crash. Nobody can, but I knew something was up. So we're just letting you know there should be no excuse.

And I know what you hear. You got to think long term. This is how we work. It's a great company. Don't worry. I got news for you. Adobe is a great software company. A great software company.

It hit a high of 345 in 21. I take that back. $699 in 21. I was looking at the price today. It's $3.45 today. Last I looked, that's $15. percent on a great company. So I just thought I'd bring this up today because spoke to a few people in what they had today. And it's stunning. It really is stunning. What is not stunning is the

usual BS. They all have the same lines. Don't worry. Everything's okay. It's a great company. It'll come back. Every one of them. Estee Lauder today dropped 42 and a half bucks, 17%. We don't own any. You know why? It topped out in January of 22. We know big trends. So when we tell you these are the leaders, these are the laggers, these are the leading groups, these are the lagger groups, there's meaning behind it. But when all is said and done, you got to have sell rules. Oh yeah, we had one that called today that had a couple of regional banks that were just bought four weeks ago as they were bouncing after they crumbled. Oh, they're good banks.

When this all passes, oh, it's going to go back to the highs. Both those banks are down 20% in the last two weeks. And maybe they'll go back to the highs. We're not saying they won't. what we are saying is you need to know bull versus bare markets and you need to get the hell out of the way

before disaster hits a 33% drop you got to make back 50% just to get even and a 50% drop you got to make back 100% to get back to even and ask yourself how many 100% is have you had that's all I thought I'd mention that today

it would be of import that's a good thing to discuss and the main trends right now is still housing gold to a lesser extent some of the consumer staples and a smatter of drugs not all but drug stocks and that's part as consumer staples

on the opposite end is the financials the financials are the opposite end of the housing at this point in time there's your market Up next. What else? Oh yeah. The Met Gala.

That has something to do with you and your money. I promise. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why you.

so many of us live with stomach issues, we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.

So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. At the age of the 50, I've learned some things, like the value of the family, the importance of the job, and that the 99% of the people, of more of 50,

you have the virus that causes the Culebrilla. Although not all the people in risk they're they're going to

do you do not really. The eruption dolorosa with ampollows during the times, are even the

things are all a real realtor to the way difficult. Talked on your doctor or

pharmaceutical, patrocino for GSK. So what do this animal and this animal and this animal have in common?

They all live on an Organic Valley Farm. Organic Valley Dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious,

nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovi.coop and taste the difference. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. By the way, be careful about headlines. I see one headline, Jerome Powell, the Fed, strongly hints the Fed will pause further rate hikes after the latest increase. I have another headline that says the opposite. So be careful. What Powell did cite is a meaningful change of the Fed's language. But he did say that he may have to increase rates, though.

Still, depending on what comes in. But he changed a little bit of the language. the data dependent. He also said that there's no rate cuts coming. If I was to guess, I would think that line probably was the reason why the market took a little tankage. By the way, I said to you, Dow futures are up 50 in the aftermarket immediately after the close. NASDAQ 100 is up about two-tenths of a percent. So maybe they're already starting the little reverse of today for tomorrow.

We'll see. The tape's a mess no matter what. The tape's a mess. I count about 65 to 70 percent still in downtrends. Of note today, there was some good reaction to earnings and news. The one that stands out, by the way, I'm going to talk MetGent. Galla tomorrow. But it's pretty funny. You know how we tell you about? We never want to hear from anybody tell us about climate change who gets on private jets. They can go screw themselves.

I got to, you know, Pierce Morgan is? He did an op-ed in the New York Post. If you have a chance, go read it. Pierce Morgan, P-I-E-R-S, Morgan, Op-Ed, New York Post on the Met Gallagallet. Go read this. It's fantastic. I'll cover it tomorrow. And it is everything to do with you and your money. Back on where we want to go, where did I even want to go. Eli Lilly. You know how I tell you that I've never been more optimistic on most of us, but I've never been more pessimistic on most of them? It's been one of my favorite lines. Most of us includes a lot of corporate America. Eli Lilly's stock today was up $27 to $431. Let me read. Let me read. read to you, positive results for an Alzheimer's drug that significantly slowed cognitive and

functional decline in people with early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. My grandparents many years ago had it. I don't know what they called it back then. I can't imagine people having this. vital people losing memory control. I watch Michael J. Fox. I saw an interview the other day, and it looks like it's worsening what he has. I don't know if he has ALS. I'm talking about this whole deterioration type thing.

I can't imagine having that. So for somebody like an Eli Lilly to come up with this and let's hope look let's hope you know years ago AIDS was a death sentence not anymore my uncle died of multiple myeloma many years ago once he was diagnosed I think he died within a year to 18 months now it's five to 10 years and looks you know who knows I think it's maybe be close to 10 years. Don't quote me on that, but it's most illnesses. That's what we mean by. I've never been more optimistic on us. Most of us. Can't say all of us. Anyway, Eli Lilly. And then you just had wing stop, was up 13 early and then flat and then finished up 17 on really good

numbers good sales numbers chicken wings that's a new yearly high chlorox consumer staples i mean not gangbusters revenues up six new yearly high what was the other one that just went to new yearly high in staples herschies and lamb weston frozen potatoes and other staples not monster beverage i think reports tomorrow the thing breaks out and just go straight up for a few days. So still some really good reaction to earnings. Big blowups also, of course, but man oh man, some really good reaction. Whether they stick or not will be another story. And when I go through some of those earnings, just, you know, we are pretty good at looking how good those earnings are. Here's one, SMCI, super microcomputer. What a great name. Super Microcomputer. I'm super microcomputer.

was up 29 bucks to 8 or 134, 28%. Earnings are only up five. Revenues were down five, but they guided higher. But then I looked at what they guided higher, and next quarter's earnings with the guide higher will be flat. So I go figure, don't know. That's why it's not the news, it's how the market reacts to the news. When it comes to the market, let me segue.

Financials were strong early, finished poorly. Regional banks were up today. Finish down 1.8%. It's up 2% early. That's not good news. Remember what we said on these banks. If there are any other regional banks to go under, it'll be because of the stock price.

Simple as that. it'll be because of their stock price. Nothing more, nothing less. Depositors will see the stock price. Start acting accordingly. We'll pay attention for you. We'll be on Varnie & Company tomorrow. Fox Business Network, the brilliant magnificent Stuart Varnie.

I love his commentary every hour. We'll be on 11 a.m. hour. Check that out. And same time tomorrow. We'll be here. Until then, you have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. It's simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. Tell them you'll love them if you haven't. They'll feel better. You'll feel better. Have a great evening, everybody. I'm heading for the workout. Bye-bye.

I'll take care. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.k.com. When you I've learned some things like the value

of the family the importance of the job and that the 99% of the people of the people that have been the

virus that caused the Culebrilla although not all the people in risk the I do you the upion

doorses during times making that even the things even the things are

all the not learn about the Culebrilla to the way the talk about the

doctor or pharmaceutical Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest plants, animals, and cows? You're actually on an Organic Valley dairy farm, where nutritious, delicious organic food gets at start. But there's so much nature. Exactly.

Organic Valley's small family farms protect the land and the plants and animals that call it home. Extraordinary. Sure is. Organic Valley. Protecting where your food comes from. Learn more about their food. delicious dairy at ov.c oop.