Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE FORK [07.07.2026]

Episode Date: July 7, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening. It's Tuesday, July 7, 2020, 26.

Hope you having a good day. And we want you to listen carefully today. In case you don't know, there's a serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, tariffs, war, anything that affects anything out there. You name it, we'll cover it. And if you don't get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. Also on our X feed, and if you don't follow us on X. You should.

If you like to email us, just be nice. Be respectful. Most everybody is. Are. And we'll also post it at the YouTube channel of BizTV. I have to tell you that as I am working, today I got to watch Egypt against Argentina World Cup. They were down 2-0. But like minutes to go and they won 3-2.

Messy was messy. And I got to watch Wimbledon all day. You know, I got TVs on the wall as I look at stocks all day. And like right now, we're in the midst of doing radio. watching Jokovic against Auger Alasimi. I think that's how you pronounce his name. And they're in the fourth set. Anyway, it's a great sports day to watch the market

and watch the sports and all that crap. So we've got a lot to talk about. We have been warning you. we've been simply warning you that the move in semiconductors and artificial intelligence stocks were getting weaker, that a lot of names had topped out. I believe we did it for you the other day. I don't know if it was yesterday or whatever. that maybe it was yesterday.

Every now and then we do this little sample for you. To imagine if the market was only 100 stocks and you assume we know what an up trend and a downtrend is and you have 100 stocks in the whole market and they were all in uptrends, well the market's in an uptrend. And then if 10 top out and go down, well, that's 10 versus 90. Well, what if the 90 stop going up? Well, you're getting some headwinds.

And what if 50 of that 90 start heading down and so on and so forth? We know by what we're seeing in real time, things are worsening and to be very careful. And you have to assume we know what the topping is. And you also have to assume that we know what the start of some downtrends are. And you also have to assume that we also have to assume that we know. where very important junctures are. Well, in the recent past, we've been telling you about, boy, oh boy, for a while, we had no semiconductor stocks in downtrends. None break in the 50 day.

But a few weeks ago, we had a couple, no big deal. A couple of weeks ago had a little bit more. Last week, a bunch more, especially Thursday and Friday. yesterday we bounced up and we were not impressed and we don't know what the next day is going to bring. We have thought process that things are weakening. The socks is down 700 points as I speak. We're closing the market any minute now. By the way, 700 points would be about 5.5%.

If the sector is down 5.5.5, you can bet you know what. A bunch of stocks are down more than that. And let me just state for the record, a lot of names are down. Now, I'm going to use a term blowing up. In semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and in that realm is the construction of the data centers and the data centers and the memory and the optics. You know, the areas they said, don't worry. The earnings are so strong. The revenue is so strong.

Everything's going to be fine. Don't worry. And we're telling you, wait a minute, worry. Things are topping out. Things are getting in trouble. Well, we're letting you know today was a very rough day. Got a couple of minutes left in the market to close. Do I do percentages?

Yeah, better. percentages, right? Well, some of the strongest names recently have been the semiconductor equipment companies like ASML, down 5% today. Applied Materials, down 7.5% today. K-L-A-C down 8.6%. Lamb Research, down 7.8%. Let's move over to AMD, down 7.5%. You think that's an important name? Hell, yeah. Yeah. Intel, 10.5%. Micron, only six. Sandisk.

And may I say sandis is down 7.6%. It was down, it's at 1612 right now. It was at 1485. It was much worse, but still down. And then I can just go through the list, whether it's symbol fix, which is one of these construction guys, or symbol MPWR, monolithic power, down another 86 today, six and change, or I can go into Sienna,

or Little Fuse or Jable Circuit or Sanmina, all these names, they're getting smoked. Very rough day. We have no clue about tomorrow, but I'll tell you what we do have a clue about. As we did our scans, just 15 minutes ago, towards the close, we're just finding a lot of chart breaks, a lot of 50-day breaks, with volume. And as we had said to you, what happens in a cycle where things have gone very far to the upside? and get very over-owned and most importantly over-leveraged. When things turn, what do you think has to happen first?

The leverage comes off, which accentuates the downside. And that's what's going on here right now. The socks has gone from 14655. It's 12 as I speak, which, by the way, is kind of a normal, pullback after such a move. But, but feels a little worse. It looks a little worse. And we'll see what tomorrow brings.

That's the best way I can explain it. The money is flowing into other areas. We'll get into that in a couple of minutes. That's the good news. Normally, let me give you a normally. When leading stocks and leading groups, especially in the growth arena, getting tagged, it's usually troublesome for the rest of the market. But this time I can tell you, it has rotated into other areas, whether it be insurance stocks, I know boring, pharmaceuticals, I know boring, other medicals, I know boring. How about the managed care?

Yeah, I know boring. How about some food and beverage? Yeah, I know, boring. How about some banks? Yeah. How about software? As the semiconductors and AI were soaring, software was getting trashed. Well, software is at the forefront now.

Even the worst names are coming off the floor. The best names, well, we listed for you, especially the software security names, have been downright strong. So good rotation. We'll stay on top of it. Best as we can do. But we just want to let you know under no uncertain terms here, boy, they were coming after the semiconductors

and the artificial intelligence trade where everybody loaded up and got leveraged. Do you know how I know? by the inquiries I get. Maybe I'm a small sample, but I can figure it out. Inquiries. Up next. We'll continue.

This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay. So you're going to hear from a lot of technology people and analysts and whoever and pundits. Yeah, it's just a blip. And we've seen this before.

Last year we had Deep Seek and they got trashed and they came back and there was something else. and oh, was the Trump in his war and it came back and this happened and came back? Okay, we're open to that. But we deal in the here and now. We don't try to project going forward in any way, shape, or form. At any given time when things are correcting,

you do not know. They do not know if it turns into something worse. We're just letting you know they are under pressure, pretty darn good, and we'll let you know. We have been warning you now for a little bit of time telling you just letting you know, hey, just letting you know, Jay, letting you know. And today, I would suggest a little bit of the fork. they stuck the fork in in artificial intelligence areas

as well as the semiconductors the fork next SpaceX as I speak in the market's closing in one minute it's down $11 to $149

and a half 11 bucks $11 And why am I bringing this up again the second? Oh, it is because since it came public at 135, it opened up at 150. A few days later, it hit a low of 147.1.1, but closed at 1.5. Got to get the number correct. It closed at 156, above the 150.

The next day, the low was 150.72. The next day, the low was 150 exactly. The next day, the low was 14850, but closed at 153 in change above the 150. The next day, the low was 151.754. next day wasn't even close. Remember it had that good up day. The next day was a bad day and the low was 155. Well, you know what my point is.

That 150 area has been so far a strong hold. So far, it closed at 14940, right around there. I say this because how things work in the markets. Price is recognized. And I don't know since it's only been public not long, how much institutions have built up and whether they're going to use a break of this area knowing that's where it opened.

That's where it's held to say, just get me out right now and I'll worry about it later. Remember, fear and greed are emotions from the smallest investor to the biggest. I can promise you that. So just letting you know on the SpaceX, but I have to go one further. We have to throw in another one of the, hey, Gary, thank you. We warned you about all the space stocks.

That they were touted and promoted to you by pundits that said because SpaceX valuations, blah, blah, blah, you got to own them. They've crumbled. They have absolutely crumbled. The favorite of most was something called Rocket Labs. How about 151 to 83? For starters. The other one that I thought was very loved was this symbol AST Space Mobile.

How about 130, 134 to 74? I can do up. others, but I think I've made my point. Always be careful. Always pay attention. Always have stops in place. We call that the just-in-case scenario. And if SpaceX goes lower, I can all but promise, because we really can't promise. But all but promise. that these space stocks are going to get trashed also. Do not forget what we told you about SpaceX.

We think great things are ahead. We don't know how anybody pays $2 trillion for $18 billion in current revenues with a $5 billion loss. And I believe negative cash flow. Presently. Presently. Just words to the wise. So, uh, rough day.

I'll look it over in a little bit. I'm noticing some things, like Sandus had 1,500 and closed at 16, 17, but down, uh, $700 in like the last eight, nine days. After a big run, though, no argument there. Bond market had a bad day. I wasn't even paying much attention to that, but yeah, interest rates ticking up. I noticed also oil prices. I didn't see any big news out of Iran, but oil prices are up over three bucks today.

I'm not so sure that's great news. Up next, we'll talk about that and other things. This is the one only investors edge. Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Coltbaum

It comes highly recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge USA soccer was outplayed Last night Unfortunate You know I saw people online

Kind of making fun of the team and I'm thinking to myself huh so they didn't play well they had a bad game what do you think they didn't try hard enough? Of course they did people are weird

people are really weird anyway Argentina was down two nothing to Egypt late in the game it won three two if you have a chance I want you to listen to the telemundo's call of

Messies' game tying goal. These announcers are just fantastic. Love that. Also in sports, do you ever hear this? Jalen Brunson had a bad risk throughout the playoffs. It was so bad. He had surgery today. Just adds.

Just adds to his thunderous, fabulous, heroic job he did for my New York Knicks. All right, that's our sports for the day. So I did the, so let me make a statement on the semis and AI. We're not saying it's over with. We're not saying they're not going to quadruple from here or go up tenfold. We're saying they are now this second on defense, in trouble, more than likely, I don't know if the word's down for the count right now,

but they're going to have to go through motions. To what extent we don't know, you know, the guy from the big short Michael Burry, he's shorted them and he thinks they're a bubble. And if there are a bubble, they're going to go much lower. We tend to not be, how do I put this? I don't think we have to be in that camp. I never really know how far things are going to go, how bad things are to get. Back in 2007, 2008, if you recall, if you were listening back then, we were sitting there, what's wrong with the banks?

The banks led the market down. The market rallied a thousand points and the banks hardly budged. And when the market came in again, the banks were leading them down. We're like, there's something wrong with the banks. We didn't know that a bunch of them were going to go out of business because they committed fraud. Of course, nobody got indicted. But the market was speaking volumes at the time. We don't know what the market's speaking right now.

The thought process is and just, you know our worries, we do have worries. You got the invidia, creating entities, funding them, getting debt to fund them, them to buy Nvidia chips, how much of that's going on? And that's a valid question.

There's questions about the debt. You know what's happened to Oracle stock. There's questions about the spend. I've had

one big question on the spend. How much money is going to be spent on all this? And it's a simple question. How are they

going to make money on all this spend? Just remember when somebody spends, a company spends, a company invest a dollar, they're looking to make $1.10.

Now, maybe I'm nuts, but this whole thing weirds me out. It doesn't keep me away, but it weirds me out. The numbers that are being bandied about are gargantuan. Absolutely gargantuan. Beyond the beyond. And I just wonder. I just wonder. Is it wrong to wonder?

Anyway, we'll see what Tamar brings. I will tell you this. You want to see how crazy things are? At 355, the Sox was 12,180, and it closed the 12.20 points in 1,2, 3, 4, 5 minutes at the end of the day. Finished down 600. It was down over 700 when we started this show. in five minutes 1%.

Gotta love that. We'll see what that means for tomorrow. But anyway, I don't need to go through the actual numbers of each. It was just a rough day. What else today? As I mentioned oil prices, I must have missed that. They sneaked up today, yields, and let me be clear, you don't want to see yields and oil prices go higher.

I promise you that. and I must tell you I don't see any bad news in Iran I'm looking I don't see any news in Iran that would have caused that okay

haven't seen any news software strong a symbol net was up nicely today others were up others pulled back needed to Palo Alto finally pulled back

crowd strike pulled back but on the stronger side. That's where money was flowing. The problem is there's only a select few with strength. Everything else is kind of sort of coming off of bare market lows. And we'll keep an eye. We'll keep an eye. Oil stocks are up today, duh, because I said oil prices were up. And overall, again, I have to repeat. Luckily, the markets have rotation. Because typically, when the leading group in growth gets hit, that's trouble for all. But not so bad. So oils are up. Eli Lilly up 35, McKesson up 23. That's the drugs. The managed care, United Health up 10.

That helped the Dow. What didn't help the Dow was Caterpillar down 30, but it was down 60 at one time. IBM is still acting like a penny stock both up and down. Insurance was pretty strong, and you had some food and beverage strong. Very weak now is the commodities. I will tell you because of yields ticking up today and oil going up. They hit the airlines and the cruise lines. And I believe housing pulled back also. So a lot of jello moving on the plate.

Advanced declines, not very good. Up down volume, not very good. and I'm looking around for anything else I need to tell you on this market today. Now that's about it. And again, I don't have a stinking clue what happens tomorrow. But I do like how they close the semiconductors in the last five minutes. Maybe it's meaningful for tomorrow. I don't know.

Not a lot of earnings this week. So nothing to really talk about. next week I do believe will be the banks and as you know they're the greatest bookies on earth so not to worry about them they are the greatest bookies if I had to do it over again I'd own a bank

when I started out in this business I was in the Barnett Bank building which turned into the NCNB building which turned into some other building which turned into some other building no not kidding and all I know is I've read about a lot of bankers that made a lot of money

because of the greatest bookies on earth you give them money they pay you a little and they lend a lot they get the Vig well done what a business what a business and the banks act pretty decently right now

I get a lot of questions on the economy. I think it's okay. I think it's on better than okay. I don't think the job markets is in great shape. Up next, we'll expound on that. This is the one and only investors edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investers Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So I know you're being told we're in a golden age. They're full of crap.

I know you're being told that we were dead before them. They're full of crap. We were not dead before them. The economy, and I give Biden no credit whatsoever for the economy. But the economy was fine under him. The job market was better under him than what it is right now. But I don't give Biden any credit. I give the 150 million of us that go to work every day to do better for ourselves and family.

We get the credit. I don't give this guy credit. In fact, I believe he created headwinds with the tariffs and the war. And as you know, I think they're nuts with the tariffs. And if he does them again, it's only going to hurt things. So just letting you know, I think the economy is sound. but it's also on stilts with $2.2 trillion of deficit this year, which is insane. I believe the job market is on the weak side, even though the unemployment rate is low,

and that's because a lot of people have left the workforce. If I was to give the job market a number of 1 to 10, I give it a 6. I give it a 6. hiring is not good. And I must tell you, I was on TV last week, and I said the job number was mediocre. It came out 50 some odd thousand. And they were like,

somebody said something to the effect of, I thought 50,000 is good. I go, wait a minute. 50,000 is good. Under Biden, they were like 200,000 months. We've yet to even hit that. They're like, whoa, real, they didn't even realize.

And again, let me repeat. I don't give Biden any credit. I think he sucked. He was just a debt-ridden, deficit-ridden, corrupt, whatever you want to call president. And I will never forgive what he did at the border. And I will never, before he ran out of the White House, He handed out billions of dollars to friends to create fake green energy companies, Stacey Abrams. But now they take credit for this.

And I don't understand overdoing it and overpromising golden age. Give me a break. Golden age. And I got news for you. If we do with 3% GDP, that would be terrific. They want to take credit. That's their job. I don't mind that.

But it's us. and hopefully we get a 4% or a 5% but just remember it's going to be under the guise of 2.2 trillion of deficits which goes into GDP just remember that and as we have said to you in your industry in your business

if you work for somebody make yourself indispensable kids make yourself the go-to person that no matter what Who did I just see Got rid of? Oh, Microsoft Didn't they just fire another 5,000 people? I think it was 5,000.

There's been a lot of that going on. I feel for people. Bing Letgo sucks. That's why I own my own company. I don't think I can ever work for anybody again. My first foray into this business, the guy who was my boss, I could have might as well have called him Adolf.

He was a nasty mother. Finally, I walked into his office, shut the door. I looked at him straight in the face. Is this how you treat everybody? Is this going to continue? And he actually says to me, you know, I respect you for coming in here like that. I couldn't give a crap.

Boy, is he nasty. Anyway, just that's my best advice always. And what does that mean indispensable? Treat your company like you own it. Treat your company like you own it. Simple as that. And I do believe the AI thing is going to be a pain in the ass. And a lot of businesses going forward.

To what extent we don't know, people are, a lot of people saying, nah, don't worry. I say, think about it. I say absolutely think about it What else went on today? Golden Silver down today After a nascent rally Bounce

Bitcoin was flat today Acting a wee bit better But my interest and I didn't even realize this Till I started doing this show today I didn't even realize this Oil prices spiked up today And so did yields I guess I'm

miss that. We do not want to see the 10-year yield head on over to 4.7, 4.8%. You will be hearing from me if that occurs. I promise you that. I haven't talked housing lately. Florida, average price they say is down 5%. Also, we now have the most, what am I hearing? houses for sale ever around the country. And as I have said to you, we have fantasy land coming down in all areas of Florida right now. I do not believe it's a 2008 scenario. I just believe fantasy land's coming down. On the high end, I'm seeing houses going up for $3 million that were 1.25 years ago.

And of course, they're not getting it. And I'm also noticing certain areas with a lot of houses for sale, which means they have to compete against each other, which means they're going to have to keep lowering prices to move the inventory. So that's what's going on here. Stay tuned. All right. Wish I'd better news on today.

You'll have a great evening, drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise they will be well. Have a good night, everybody. Peace out. Bye, bye.

This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.