Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The front cover indicator [12.12.2025]

Episode Date: December 12, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening and happy it is Friday. No, really. Happy, it's Friday. The 12th. 2000 and 25 Ladies and gentlemen Today's going to be a little bit of lesson day

You know we don't pretend to be George Soros William O'Neill the greats of the world But we do think Our studies of bull and bear markets We'll protect the hell out of you When things go awry or when something shows up,

especially when we're at extreme moments. But let us introduce ourselves first. This is Investor Zed. Serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the market, the economy, your job, your industry. The Morlocks in D.C. that hate us. No, really, they hate us. You know that, right?

Right? 38 trillion of debt? You think they like us? If you do, you're a mark. because they're con artists. I digress. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

Also on our X feed, if you don't follow us at X, you should. We'll post it on podcast apps and the BizTV YouTube channel. If you like to email me, just be nice. And all that. What I say, less in time.

I'm going to point out two things. But first, let me state there's nothing ever 100% in the market. When we tell you something specific is happening, nothing's 100%. When we tell you something is breaking out of range, and that simply means, well, a stock, a sector, an index, or whatever, hits 100 bucks seven times over six months,

and every time it hits 100, it stops and comes back down, and finally it breaks above 100, well, that's a breakout. But that doesn't mean three days later. It doesn't break back below. There's no rule of thumb. You just know that this is what you want to look for if something's going to go higher. Same for breakdowns and all kind of action in the market. Our job is to get main trends right.

The big trends, especially the big bad trends, to not be in there. and get squashed. For example, for example, what's one of the things we did for all of you in the last, I don't know, two months, three months? We thought we had extreme froth and speculation. We even highlighted the areas, and it wasn't hard. Drones, space, robo-everything, nuclear, quantum, and the latest one was the rare earths.

And we just stated to, I just want to let you know that most of them have no sales or very little sales and most all of them lose a ton of money. And by precedent, not president, but precedent, we had said to you, if nothing changes,

Which simply means if nothing changes and they still have no sales, if nothing changes, when the music stops and there's no chairs left, they're all going to go back to where they came from. Within weeks, they all crashed. We did not know the timing. We don't know when. It just so happened. They've all crashed, some down 70%, and that's what we mean by not necessarily the timing, but outcome. And it's going to be fluid going forward. But if nothing changes, they're all going to go back to where they came from. By the way, some have already. But there's another thing that stands out for us. That does not happen very often. But when it does, it potentially, potentially is a sore thumb. And if it ends up being a sore thumb and you do not take action, you can lose a hell of a lot of money if you're in the wrong areas. It is what is known as the

front cover indicator. What? Well, let me give you some very important examples. From 1966 to 1982, I don't know if you know this, the market did nothing. The market was flat for 16 years. True story. And towards the end of the 70s, there was an article front page, the death of equities. I believe it was late 79. Soon as they put it out, the market rallied up over a few months period, but then came down and touched where that article came out. And in 82, a new grand super cycle. Death of equities. In 2000, or late 99, there was John Chamber. of Cisco systems on the front cover of time.

For instance, also on the front cover of time, my good friend Jonathan Honeg sent this to me, was the big deal. You know what that was? AOL Time Warner deal with both CEOs on the cover smiling. And in case you don't know, the stocks crashed. You see, the front cover.

indicator, especially when it comes to non-financials, non-financial media, like Time or Newsweek. Once they are reporting on it, everything's already made a big move, both up or down. Does not mean the trend has to change. We're just letting you know it's usually at a very important juncture, or getting close to it. You see, if a stock goes up 30-fold, and all of a sudden Time magazine or Newsweek or whoever, has a front cover and a big article touting it and shouting it and interviewing the CEO,

what you need to know is the only reason they're doing that is to sell the magazines because it's a hot topic because of how good the stock has done. You catching where I'm going? So, this week, Time Magazines, 2,025 person or persons of the year, architects of artificial intelligence. Huh. I have news for you. I have my ear to the ground. I didn't know what the hell artificial intelligence was 18 months ago.

What the hell is that? Did you ever hear of it? I didn't. Not a lick. But of course, in the last 18 months, the noises got louder and louder and louder and louder and louder and louder. And by the way, we're not poo-pooing it. Yeah, nice words, Gary, poo-poo.

We're not putting it down. We're just stating facts. Everything, artificial intelligence. We have highlighted few companies just making any announcement, artificial intelligence. Companies getting involved, artificial intelligence. Disney, billion dollars to open AI for artificial intelligence for their characters like, I asked myself, why do you? Do they need that?

But I digress again. You can't turn on the TV. You can't go online without reading about artificial intelligence. Up next. You'll get it. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, number one, why did they name artificial intelligence people as the persons of the year? Because it's hot as crap. they want to sell magazines.

What's the big talk of the town? Well, it ain't the New York Giants. It's not the disappointing Mets. It's artificial intelligence. So let me start by saying, these types of announcements and front covers and pronouncements, listen carefully, do not happen at bottoms.

Very often, it comes at late stages. Not because the front cover makes the area drop in price in the market, but it would be because it comes out after a gargantuan move. It's an indicator of ours, by the way, and others, that really is a sore thumb. and always happens after a move in the industry in the market. This does not necessarily mean that all hell's going to break loose or it's going to top. We just on notice and we put it in our file manager that holy crap, because we remember John Chambers.

We remember the AOL. We remember the death of equities. and many other front covers, and by the way, I have them stashed away here, and I will find them, because there are others. When did this come out? Was it yesterday or Wednesday? What's the difference? Doesn't matter. Yesterday or Wednesday. Doesn't matter. So let me give you the second part of my equation. Second part of my equation. one of the technical indicators of a change of direction is when things start swinging wildly in the market. In other words, you're going down, you're going down, you're going down, you're going down.

And then all of a sudden you have a big up day and a big down day and a big down day and a big down day and a big up day and a big up week and a big down week. usually it means after you're going down the buyers start picking up, get some strength, and the sellers peter out. What about going higher? Well, you drop big, and then you rally back up, and then you drop big and you rally back up, and you drop big and you rally back up.

All this after a big multi-month, if not longer, move to the ups. side. Do you know what's been going on with a lot of artificial intelligence stocks over the last weeks? Those wide and loose swings. So we have this front cover. And by the way, do not shrug this off. Combine with wide and loose and we won't know what we came into today. But let me give you some, for instance, leader L-I-T-E, down $47 today. The 324. Sanddiss down $35 to $206. Caterpillar, which is an AI stock, down 28.

Celestica, down 44 to 306. Broadcom on their earnings down 46 to 359. By the way, 10 to 20% drops today. KLAC down 52, ASML down 41. Seagate down 20 to 200. Western Digital down 10 to 176. Want me to continue? Fix down 57.

By the way, it was down 100 at one time today. PWR down 28 to 438. Again, a bunch of 10 to 20s, but mostly a lot of 5 to 15s. We already know about the crash in Oracle as of recent. On big numbers goes from 345 down to 190. gags on earnings. We know about NVIDIA, which is topped out for now and can't get back above the 50-day moving average,

even though there was some announcement on China that should have rallied things up. Then you have data centers like VRT down 17 to 16-161, breaking the 50-day moving average. Robin Hood breaking the 50-day moving average. Credo breaking the 50-day moving average. Amphanol, breaking the 50-day moving average. B-E., breaking the 50-day moving average.

B.E. breaking the 50-day moving average. The construction names hit hard today. The energy names hit hard. We're talking all artificial intelligence related. I can do others. I think I've made my point. So we're just letting you know, did I say Sienna down $24, the 218,

after earnings, had a good reaction yesterday. So, with just letting you know, anything breaking the 50-day moving average in this realm in this area should be on notice and should be evaluated. We don't know what today meant. We know what today is. Will it continue? I don't know.

But wide and loose patterns. And we're going to show that in our webcast this weekend. combined with artificial intelligence persons of the year and I believe it's something that has to be paid attention to and I want you to remember very over-owned, very over-love, very over-leveraged every freaking pundit that goes on TV is bullish on them

when I'm like, what? There's a lot of things breaking down. So let's keep this in mind. mind, you're on notice. To be fair, we had a big crash on Deep Seek early in the year. They crashed the AIs. They came back. You had a big crash under Trump's stupid Liberation Day tariff stuff. They came back. We're just later in the move. And now this. Up next, got lots to cover. Lesson day. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off.

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Culper. It becomes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Okay, so very rough day. I will tell you that the froth is coming off. Remember we said they were bouncing a little bit the froth after crashing? They're crashing them back down again. The quantum, the nuclear, and all that. No sales stuff. I got to tell you one of them, you know, we have this poster child that we keep bringing up to you, has gone from 193 to 87. And at $87, it still has a $13.6 billion market cap with no sales. Simple OKLO. And we're not pissing all over the company. This is not about the company. We're dealing with stock price and valuations here. It's nuclear.

They have no sales. Now, supposedly they have contracts, and we're not going to argue that point, but where you're letting you know, it still has 13 points. Let me hold on. Yeah, 13.6 billion market cap with no sales. The stock came from 10 bucks, and it's still 87. And it has a saying, they better get some sales. Oh, and by the way, they better make money off of those sales. and again we are not ripping on the company this is all about valuation and price and the protection of you when things go awry

i got another one right here in the same space it's only gone from 61 to 35 and only has a 1.5 billion dollar market cap with no sales in nuclear. This is what we're trying to tell you. How about this one that's gone from 464 to 250? By the way, this one has sales. Not going to mention the rest of the symbols. And then you got this rare earth stuff. and again

we must take on the president on this because he keeps announcing we're doing these deals with rare earth and they keep bouncing up these rare earth stocks with no sales well I found one that just went from 100 to 56 and you know what's happening here at 56

oh 50 million dollars of insider selling hmm hmm hmm just letting you know just letting you know. So the froth is coming off. Stay the hell away from it. The froth is coming off of a lot of risky biotech also.

We say risky, just no sales. We're very little. Lose a lot of money companies. We be careful there. That's all. In other news. And this irritates the hell out of us. And again, we have no bias.

We don't care about anybody in D.C. We have no love for anybody, nothing personal. They've earned the wrath. $2 trillion deficit this year, $38 trillion. We're going to 40 quickly. Since Doge, $2 trillion up in less than a year, actually $2.1 trillion. So we don't care about them. We just like good policy.

That's all. And when there's good policy, we are going to come. compliment them like crazy and when there's bad? Well, let me talk about one. It looks like our president is going to loosen regulations on marijuana. Let's put the pieces of the puzzle. They're knocking out boats that are transporting drugs and blowing them up, killing the transporters of the drugs.

But he pardons the ex-head of Honduras that was found guilty in going to jail for trafficking 400 tons of cocaine. And now he wants to loosen restrictions on marijuana. So which is it? And I don't care what any of you say, it doesn't matter to me, marijuana is not good for your health. That's all. So I don't get it. The inconsistency.

Anyway, marijuana stocks had a strong day today. Oh, anyway, they're all down about 90 whatever percent since 19 when they told you how to own them. You ready for this? Tillray, I guess they did reverse splits. It's $3,000 in 2019. It was up four bucks this week to $12. How about that? How about Symbol MJ, and I'm pretty sure that's like an index,

was up 42% today to $38. The high was $545 in 2018. I have no clue whether this is a one-off on the move today or, not, I'm just letting you know the weed stocks had a good day today. And by the way, as I always say, just walk Manhattan. It's one big gigantic bong hit. Seriously, just walk anywhere in Manhattan and take a whiff. It's one big gigantic bong hit. Let's continue. Simple. F-R-M-M-I. another one of those IPOs that we told you to be careful about. $21 IPO.

The second day was at 35, 10. Down 34% today. They announced their first, get this, their first potential tenant for something called the Project Matador Data Center campus terminated their $150 million. advance in aid of construction agreement. This is what I'm talking about. There's been a lot of, hey, you know, the shape of things to come, believe in it and stuff like that.

You know? We'll see how it plays out. We wonder, we really do wonder, about all the protestations and predictions. And today, Oracle, they sent a spokesperson out on TV to try and debunk problems with Oracle and getting things done on time. Because Oracle was down another $9 today. It has gone from $345, make that almost $346 to $190 since mid-September, which, by the way, has surprised the hell out of us. No way would I believe that happened or was going to happen because they've announced

backlogs up the wazoo. The market's not believing. And the market's worried about all the debt to do all this stuff going forward. We'll keep you informed on it. We'll keep you informed on it. But all I can tell you, there's some things. sticking out. Some sore thumbs. The wide

and loose of all this AI was loose to the downside today. Next week is another week. We'll stay on top of it. I want to repeat. You had a worse move in the deep seek. I believe that

was February. You had a terrible drop on the Trump tariff. And both times came back. We're just letting you know your father along. and you're very wide and loose. Up next, whatever else we can think of. I'm Gary.

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Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well public. it you're listening to what are we waiting for what are you waiting for one

two ready go in the guesters edge with Gary Culpa in other news you know when we quote Warren Buffett

one of our favorite quotes and I'm paraphrasing but it goes something like it takes a lifetime to build a reputation and a minute to lose the whole thing. Have you read that read this or are you watching this story about the coach no longer the coach of University of Michigan football program? Holy crap. Number one that's part but also number

two what is our other little motto that you teach your kids never piss on prosperity. He you got a guy that was assistant coach at University of Michigan became head coach. Making six million bucks a year. Would you like to make six million bucks a year coaching football? And what does he do? He's married, has three kids. He has an affair with his whatever assistant. And from what we are now being told, it was well known.

And Michigan wasn't doing anything about it. Supposedly, we'll find out. now he's toast because the woman dropped dime on him and then he threatened her. Now he's arrested. Now he's threatening suicide. They got him in jail and who the hell knows? My goodness, gracious. You know, we've had people that worked with us that passed because of alcoholism.

And we tried, we did everything possible. we'd always say the same thing to them. There's only one thing in the world you don't do. And that's drink alcohol. Yet they did. And I'm not comparing somebody dying to this guy. But man, here's something, just don't do this. And he did.

And now his life is in shambles. It's amazing. The lack of discipline. And by the way, we're not. Jumping up because addiction, I watched it. I can't imagine the war people go through with addiction. It was a war, and I watched it firsthand, and nobody can do anything about it. We feel for so many, it really is a disease.

Next, just letting you know the scummy, sleazy, New York Times, they're now writing articles about how bad the border was under Biden. What a bunch of clowns at the New York Times. You do know they never wrote about it in his four years. Well, we're telling you about it every week. In plain sight,

there's videos. You know, the only people that played the videos was Fox because all the media blacked it all out because the media sucks. Now the New York Times is reporting it. Speaking of that, You know what else? The BBC, United Nations, Amnesty International, all these Israel-hating ass clowns are now reporting all the bad things Hamas did. What a bunch of scumbags. What a bunch of scumbags. Boy, just irritates the heck out of me. Late breaking news, which does not make your handsome and buffed happy, host happy. The president just came out.

and says the next Fed chair should consult with him on interest rates and interest rate should be 1% or lower a year from now. If interest rates on the Fed funds go to 1%, expect 9% inflation again. Just again, we nailed this for you. We'll nail it again. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. It is the central banks that cause inflation. with too much easy money. That's why we got what we got from Powell. He never got the blame because he's not elected. Of course, Biden put a little fuel on the fire

with his moronic increase in the government. But you go take the Fed funds down to one while the market doesn't want it. They'll be your inflation. And then all hell's going to break loose. Unfortunately, the president doesn't get it. He's an easy money guy. and that will be look out below.

In case you don't know, since the Fed lowered their rates to 3.5%, the 10-year was up again today to almost 4.2, the 30-year 4.86. Kids, I know they tell us their geniuses. They know not what they do on easy money and interest rates and the interfering of markets. with those interest rates. President Trump, and I'd say it to his face, he's no free market guy. And that is unfortunate. We are rooting for him. We are not against him. We wish him well. We want nothing but success because his success is our success. But between the Liberation Day and the tariffs

and now wanting to go to 1% interest rates when long rates are going higher, faulty. We hope we're wrong. We really do. We are not anti-Trump. We're anti-bad policy. We're pro-good policy. And we're pretty sure we're a lot smarter than they are.

Because people in D.C. only want easy money because they think it's the end-all be-all. Why do you think they're in so much debt? Our debt. Because it's the end-all-be-all. Debt and easy money. They think is what's a necessity? No.

Get the hell out of our way. That's what's needed. You'll have a great weekend drive carefully. Again, we're rooting from. And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Thanks for joining. Peace out all. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear. refreshes now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, Comfort, perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital.

One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.