Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Gap [07.09.2026]

Episode Date: July 9, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is July 9th.

I believe it's Thursday, 2006. Hope you're having a good day. as always serious talk on everything that affects you the markets the economy your job your industry war bombs missiles I don't think we have to talk tariffs anymore well at least right now

the things that matter that affect us and of course if you do not get this radio show in your city we will post it at garyk.com we'll also post it on our X feed If you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you'd like to email us,

just be nice and respectful because we'll be nice and respectful back unless you like Hamas or you're a Nazi or you're a racist or you rob banks for a living or something like that. I want to get right into it today because we did a whole thing of Mabobb yesterday on something that, unless you're not, you see our webcasts, it's tough to fathom what we talk about when we say the 50-day moving average in the market. Oh, the 200-day moving average. I wouldn't blame anybody that does not follow charts of price in the market for saying, what the hell is this? I get that. That's

why we take our time discussing it. We listen back to what we say and we think we explain it pretty well, though, again, it's this technical analysis stuff that not easy to convey. So, yesterday, we had let you know that at the close, the most important areas of the market that had led the market that pulled back harshly because they got so darn extended to the upside that they tagged this thing called the 50-day moving average and held with some going a little bit below but finishing above others going to within a penny and bouncing a little bit. But that was it.

And to explain once again, on a chart of a stock, you have price movements. At the bottom, you have volume, because volume is the conviction of the moves. On that chart, those price movements could get crazy. and sometimes they get very wide and loose all over the map. What the 50-day moving average does, it smooths it out. Because what it does, it takes in the last 50 days and the closes, you add them up, you divide by 50. And there's a line that comes from that.

in a bull market, price is above an ascending 50-day moving average as price ascends, and pullbacks are usually contained by that 50-day moving average, give or take a little bit, and sometimes to the penny. In bare markets, the 50-day moving average is going down because price is going down, and rallies are contained to the upside by that declining 50-day moving average. And it just so happened yesterday, just so happens, that all day, I'm talking out loud to myself. I can promise you, if anybody was videoing me yesterday, you would think I need a rubber room and a straight jacket. because I was talking out loud.

Why? Because we knew a couple of things that these important names, Sandisk, Micron, Seagate, Western Digital, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which has been leading. The NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 all tagged the 50-day move in average, and we're hovering around it. And I'm thinking to myself, I got to buy the hell out of these things. Right here, right now,

and if it doesn't work, I stop out underneath. That means it would fail. But there was another problem. Bombings, oil prices, starting to tick up. We know by fact, that when oil prices have spiked because more bombings in the Middle East, the markets get kicked in the teeth. We know that. And interesting enough, after 4 o'clock, the market started getting hit to the downside,

because right after 4 o'clock our time, East Coast, bombings were going on. Iran was sending out, missiles into the Middle East and some of our bases. And then we started knocking the crap out of whatever's going on in Iran. And I watched how Sandisk, arguably the number one stock, rallied up strong into the clothes, dropped 30 bucks while we're doing the show. And I'm thinking, okay, because we'd rather walk in today into some weakness thinking, hey, this 50 day's going to hold. Why? Both days. And we do our thing on Wednesday night.

We took the dog out. Watch some tube. I'm reading a couple of new books. And I see, hold on a second here. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up like 90. And that's after watching Sandesh drop 30. So futures went from getting hit to up. What happened?

Our president came out and said, anything we'll do, anything we do will be. And I'm paraphrasing short-lived. It's not going to last long. And the market like that. So futures went up. Went to sleep.

Did my usual. I don't need an alarm clock. I wake up the same time every day. And I never look at futures when I wake up. I wait a little bit of time. And then I look and see the NASDAQ, NASDAQ, the semiconductors are big. And I'm pissed.

Because I had a decision to make the day before. But I can't blame myself for holding off. There's bombs going off. And what do they do? They gap that sucker up. The semis, the socks today, if I get the number right, I'm about to tell you, opened up about 500 points today. Let's see.

Yeah. In the first five minutes at 13210, I take that back. 250, how about 600? A big move. 5%. 4.5%, 5%, let's call it. And I'm unhappy. Why?

Because we knew the day before and the freaking bombs got in the way. That's how important this 50 day is. It's the reason why on November 4th of last year we said to you, start avoiding the crypto. and it's been the bare market ever since. That's how important it is. Well, we had a market day today.

What was the outcome? We'll cover it. I will tell you that we have, I must have scanned the thousand, two thousand things today. I'll take it back, probably 3,000 because we scan names over and over again. Why? We wanted to see.

where they finished, where they opened, whether they got distributed, and all that. And we've come up with some thoughts notwithstanding, who knows how we open tomorrow. But we will tell you oil prices were down, a buck and a half to two bucks. The 10-year yield was down 0.30 to 4539. Both good news. The oil stocks were down. Of course. of course, but what happened with the semis?

What happened with Seagate, Western Digital, Micron, Sandisk? What happened with meta today? I'm going to cover a bunch. This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay. So let's start with the Semiconductor Index. It was up 675 points today, but finished only up 385. It gapped up.

Hmm. I want to make sure the first, yeah, it gapped up at 13. 210 but finished at 13 12960 so gave back 250 points from the open we'll call that distribution selling of the hot open knowing let me be clear they can just gap it back up tomorrow that's how crazy this this area is but as we go through and this is what we do through and this is what we do do. When I do my webcast and I, we'll just go through 200 names. I noticed Seagate, which opened up $937, closed at $890. Huh? It was up $76, finished up only $29. Distribution. Western Digital. Hmm. They opened that up at 601, closed it at 578.

It was up 53 bucks, closed up 29. Huh. Caterpillar, which is a Dow name and an artificial intelligence name, they had that up at 983 today and closed it at 938, down 9.30. Hmm. Catching where I'm going. And again, for all we know, they gap it back up tomorrow. How about the important equipment stocks in the semis, applied materials?

It was $630.630. Closed at $5.88. And when I give you out these high numbers, it's right at the open. $42. It was up 60. He only finished up 18. Huh. How about the all-important micron? Micron was 1035 closed at 991, gave back 44, was up $88, finished up 42.

Sandisk was at 1952 at one time today. I got it closing at 1858. Gave back 94 bucks. still finished up 130, but distribution. So just I can do a hundred others, and not everything did that, but just letting you know, that gives me a little bit of a, hmm, and I'll yet to do a lot of names,

but it's a little bit of a, hmm. And as I'm looking here, you know, I take a picture, of my screens at the open, I'm just noticing a lot of things are way off the highs from early in the semis. Marvell was 252, closed at 243. Lamb Research was at 370 closed at 353.

Hmm. Taiwan semi, that's interesting, was up 11. bucks at one time today finished in the red. So some distribution here, but on the other end, you ready? Meta opens up at 57. It's down like 26 bucks on the open. It finished up $28, a $54 spread on meta.

And I was looking at news to see what's going on. I have no clue. I didn't see anything, but just letting you know, a lot of jello moving on the plate today. And I'll do my scans after radio and stuff. Yeah, Meta. Introduce the Muse Spark 1.1, the latest model from Meta superintelligence labs and a significant upgrade from something called the Muse Spark.

Mehta, Zuckerberg says it's considering if Meta's AI infrastructure could be valuable if rented to others. That made it change 50 some odd bucks? Oh, Metup added to Bank of America's Security's US One list. US One. That's a street along the beach, isn't it? In Florida, or close to it.

Anyway, so yeah, it had some stuff come out today that juiced it, but that counts. A lot of jello movies. on the plate. And we mentioned SpaceX yesterday in that $150 mark. Remember that? It finished at 152 and change today. Just so you know, it was at 145 yesterday and right at the close, the investment bankers who would look like ass clowns if it finishes below. That means everybody in the aftermarket's losing money. No doubt in our minds got their institutional people, whatever, to jump all over the stock and get it back. It closed like at 149 and it got up another four bucks today. You don't

think that goes on. You bet your sweet, you know what that goes on. And by the way, it's legal. Good job by them. But as you know, and we warned you, all the hot IPOs that they opened to crazy have been crushed. SpaceX hit 226 within a day or two of the open. It clearly. It, It's 152 today and still has a $2 trillion market cap. We'll keep you informed on that one. We do believe good things are ahead for them. We do believe the valuation currently is a joke. Is an absolute joke.

Will they gap these things up tomorrow? Don't know. How's that? The selling today? can go way to more. But we deal in real time here. They distributed some of this today. The Dow was only up 139.

Inclusive, Goldman Sachs was up 26 on a better financial day. That's 26.12, 16.156. It's about 170 Dow points. So Goldman was really most of the Dow today. But remember American Express down like 11 or 12 yesterday? up 10 today. Very weird to see that. It's a low beta financial name. Beats the heck out of me what's going on there. Some crazy action. IBM, speaking of low beta crazy action, been trading like a penny stock. And all that means is it just trades all over the map. Up next, what else we got beyond this

market today. This is the one the only investors edge. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Finanials. As bad a day as financials had yesterday

is as good a day as it had today. Black Rock yesterday was down like $25. It was up 29 today. That's weird. American Express was down 12. It was up 10 today. And I can go through the list, but you got me.

Could it have dropped because of the bombing? But then when the president said, then everything's all good. I don't know if that's the reason. AmeriPrize goes from 5, 10, Down to $490. Back up $10 today. Like that. And I can go on and on and on and on with those financials.

Good day for the transports today. Why? Of course. Oil prices dropped. I got them down about, let's see, depending on which you look at, $1.70 to $2. So the transport's at a better day.

Airlines bounced. Cruise lines bounced, the strongest name, Viking held an important moving average and bounced off of it today. That'll be important. And I was on Chicago radio today and they asked me about the oil price thing and everything. And I said, just so you know, politics is part of the fray. As we have said to you, there is just no way that the administration wants oil prices to spike again,

which means going to do everything to not blow this thing up to where it was before. Now, there was bombings last night, but as we stated, the president made sure he came out and said, oh, this is short-lived, it's, you know, blah, blah, blah, and we're still talking. We'll see. The biggest question on that, will Iran do something? crazy because I don't think at this point we will. And when I say crazy, something really psh, how did that sound come out? And of course, that is of importance.

So that's the story of today. A big gap to the upside. If this wasn't going on yesterday, I would have been frothing at the mouth about where the sandest, Micron, Seagate, Western Digital, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 were. But you've got to make a conscious decision because if all hell broke loose again, didn't the Dow drop 500 and some odd points yesterday? You think I want to walk into another 500 or 1,000 points today? And by the way, there's every chance that if I did some buying yesterday, I would have been doing some selling today. Because they opened these things up 7, 8, 9%.

That's a year. And of course, they sold a bunch of them down. I'm going to have to look that over tonight. Software Open Week finished pretty good. I don't own any software yet, but I'm jealous that I don't. and I'm going to be looking at it. Crypto bounce today. And still may be trying to put in some sort of a low.

We said that to you a couple of days ago. At least it stopped going down. Gold bounced today. I think the GLD may be headed back. Needs to break above. I'm even going to give you a number. The GLD needs to get above 38360. and then I think we're headed back to maybe 400,

and then we'll see from there. Earning season soon, I believe this week, nothing really. Pepsi reports this week. How's that? And Delta reports Friday. Next week will be a bunch of banks. And the banks acting pretty darn good. Pretty darn good.

And again, good day for financials today. Foreign banks, few at new yearly highs. And as I'm looking around, the one area that has stayed constant as putrid is retail. There ain't nothing going on in retail. Crocs acts pretty well. Victoria's Secret acts okay. And CVS drugstore acts okay. Most everything else, is that meaningful?

Not yet. And I don't know what's causing it, but not much going on there. Anything else that can disturb the force. Not seeing it just yet. And the private equity stocks that have been trashed are trying to carve something out. There's all this talk about the worry about the private equity stocks. and there's some people with big warning shots, we'll see. I got news for you. If the financials aren't crapping out and it's just the private equity stocks, I think that that's the market

saying everything's okay. Watched Wimbledon today. Well, not really watch. It's to the right of me and as I'm doing my thing. I'm watching it. There was a great woman's. It was a Czechoslovakian woman against a Cocoa Goff who's American. And I'm rooting for the American, of course, but the American announcers, by the way, we're off the beaten path for a second, should be embarrassed. Their bias for her was just terrible. I was like yelling at the TV, what does it matter with you people? And they kept putting down the check, even though she was one of the first.

first set, lost the second, was still in the third set, and they keep putting her down. And praising the other, the whole match. And Cocoa Gough ended up losing. Anyway, announces are weird. But one of the best matches I've seen in a very long time. And this is a rare year that I did not go to Wimbledon. I will be there next year. And if you were a tennis buff, you need to go to Wimbledon. It's fabulous. I know the U.S. Open's fine, but Wimbledon is filet mignon. U.S. Open is spam, though U.S. Open's pretty good. Anyway, that's my sports for today.

How's that? What else going on in the world? Well, the buzzard from Maine is out. He quit. I still find it interesting that he was not forced out. even though he had a Nazi tattoo on his chest for two decades. But it took, oh, and by the way, and other women saying that he committed this and that, but it was the wrong kind of woman because supposedly it was a conservative woman.

It took a Democrat woman to come out and accuse him of rape and now he's gone. Don't you love politics? And all of a sudden, everybody who backed him, oh, I should have know, I did this, do, do, do, do. How hard is it to figure out a guy with a Nazi tattoo on his chest for two decades is probably a bad guy? You're honoring Nazis who murdered 12 million people, 6 million of Jews in the most depraved way possible. Politics. Ain't it fabulous? I hate all them.

You know where I stand, right? And by the way, there's a lot of you that have come to my side, which is they all suck. Speaking of that, democracy, Mitch McConnell, they won't even tell us where he is and how bad a health he's in. A sitting senator, they won't tell us. How's that for democracy? And by the way, it's not just him. There were two or three Democrats in the last couple of years. Another Republican was gone for four months, had some mental health issues.

But they should let us know. Why? They work for us. We don't work for them. Seriously, but don't worry. $1.2 trillion of our dollars are going towards interest this year. Everything's fine. Up next.

This, that, and the other thing. And whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So the NASDAQ is in a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. Next week will be the 10th week of, I guess you can call it range-bound action with the 50-day moving average containing downside. That occurred yesterday. It's still about three and a half percent off the highs. The S&P 500.

Same thing. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. Next week for the S&P will be nine weeks of range bound action, but is still tagged the 50-day moving average twice in the last few weeks. And as long as that holds, Fine and dandy. What I'm going to be watching for in the days ahead is just what happened today where, oh, man, sand disk was up 250, finished up only 100. Micron was up 85, finished up only 30, still up 39, but you got to remember, these things are way off the highs also.

and remember what we've told you about wide and loose action is not usually the greatest thing wide and loose trading all over the map after a move and part of wide and loose action by the way is the up days and i believe it was Thursday we had a excuse me monday we had a big gap up didn't we yeah and guess what happened Tuesday and Wednesday. So we'll see. Again, tomorrow's another day. I got emails today left and right on Costco. What is wrong with Costco? Because it was down 40 bucks today. And Costco has gone from almost 1,100 to almost 900 in five or six weeks. The answer is beats the heck out of me. you know, they come out with monthly comps, and I guess the market didn't like it,

but I think it's a combination of Walmart. Walmart stock, and this doesn't happen often, has gone from 135 to 112 recently. Oh, and by the way, Walmart says they're going to lower prices for the summer on a ton of items. Well, guess what these other companies have to do? That is correct. Oh, and by the way, the president took credit for Walmart lowering prices. As usual, did not tell the truth. Walmart was doing this way before.

There was something already in the cards, but hey, he loves taking credit for everything. I'm surprised he didn't take credit for the Knicks. Anyway, I think that's the story with Costco. Nevertheless, it's in a bare market. And as we have said to you, the whole retail is just in a bare market except I got CVS Drugs, Victoria's Secret, and Crox-Exwell. And if you look at, I've never been in a company called Ali's Bargain Outlet. It's gone from 142 to 64 in the last year. And their numbers don't look so bad.

So I don't know what the heck's going on there. There's a lot of that going on. Oh, how about tractor supply has gone from 64 down to 30 in the last year. What are people not buying any tractors? And don't get me started on Lulu Lemon. Lulu Lemon stock has gone from top and out in 20. at 516. It's 116. And as I told you, I went into a couple Loulemans to check on business. Because I don't know what the hell's going on there. And I don't speak to the manager.

I speak to these people on the floor. And to a person, business is eh. Not good. So whatever's going on, I hear they charge too much and there's too much. I don't know what the story is. but dang, that was one strong stock for a long while. And then it topped in 22, hit a double top in 23, and since, good night, Irene. Always got to stay on top of these things. You just never know. You never know what's going to be, what's great and is going to turn into a disaster. What's been a disaster and it's going to turn great.

and that's why you always have to keep watching, keep feeling it out. I've been trying to feel out crack or barrel for whether it's getting better or not. They reported a 50, what is it, a 50% drop in earnings recently, and the stock went up because they're saying maybe things have stabilized and starting to get better. We'll see. Starbucks is acting better after a long while of acting like crap. And amazingly, I was wrong on. that, I said, the new CEO came and said, we're not going to lower prices.

Screw that. We're Starbucks. And I'm like, is he nuts? Well, guess what? Starbucks bottomed out at 78 bucks, it's 105. So I guess he knows better than me. But Starbucks stock has done nothing since 19. But you got a new guy in there, so you never know.

I take that back. I got to go to 2020. Two weeks ago, you had to go back to 2019, but six years and no gains. So we'll keep an eye on all this stuff because ladies and gentlemen, a lot of jello moving on the plate right now and the most news-driven environment we have seen in history because a very active prez versus the last guy that was comatose. I got news for you. I wouldn't mind a day or two of comatose right now. What do I call it the too much isom of those running the deal.

And that's not a rib. I'd say that about anybody. I'd say that about anybody. Anything else that is sticking out, yields continue to be stable, and hopefully oil keeps coming down. You'll have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do, make sure you hug your family,

hug your children, they'll feel better, you'll feel better. I promise, stay well, be well. Well, thanks for joining as always. Peace out, all. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.