Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Great End Of The Week In Review

Episode Date: June 2, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Friday, June 2nd, and may I state for the record, my back is very happy.

It's Friday. Thanks for joining us today. Back update, here's the good news. First off, we're pre-taping the show. It's 3 p.m., so the market's still open. We probably won't be taking all the way to the close, but I got an MRI to take. My back pain, if it was a 0 to 10, yesterday was a 10, it's a 5 today. So definitely getting better.

The steroids help, but I think they mask it, and hopefully the MRI shows nothing, and this is just nothing. what can I tell you but as I've stated a newfound respect for people with back issues and I'm up to 671 emails from from you all out there on emailing me on your backs and what you've done to fix things you know what I get a lot of inversion tables I guess you'd lay backwards you head to the ground anyway we really appreciate all you because I've got to tell you and I think I've said this before I'm one of of these people, I don't know if it's heredity, whatever, I have this high threshold of pain. But this is ridiculous. So again, thank you. So look, it's right now 3 p.m., but I got a lot of talk about here. So I want to get right into the markets, and I hope you're listening carefully because when we say to you tongue and cheek, we are the greatest technicians on earth, we say that tongue and cheek because we're humbled by the markets every day. We know the markets are an enemy if you let them be an enemy. But we really mean when we say we are so darn good at reading markets,

especially at important turns, and also recognizing bull phases, bare phases, and we've done it for you on this show. We did the whole bare market with you. We've talked for weeks and weeks and weeks about the Big Cap Tech while saying avoid all these other areas. Three days ago, I'm on this show reading off all the areas to continue to avoid. And this has been going on for months and months and months. But yesterday, on the show out of nowhere. I said to you, just feeling that maybe all these areas we've been telling you to completely avoid that the complexion may be changing.

And we gave you something that somewhat out of left field, and I'm going to explain it again. We mentioned the front cover indicator yesterday. 2007 Fortune Magazine front cover, the real estate riches interviewing these people making ridiculous amounts of money with no money down on real estate, not even owning something, but just getting something, putting no money down, selling it, and then moving to the next one, and you were getting close to the top. The manic. You had the meme stocks and the NFTs and all the other hunk of junk. frothy bubbles that got so noisy at the highs and boom on the way down what we simply noticed in the last couple of days the this is for starters before anything else we notice people out of nowhere starting to report everything we've been showing you for months and we're

thinking to ourselves, wait a minute. In the last two days out of nowhere, it's like everybody started listening to my show three or four months after the fact about how China, energy, retail, defense, transports, rails, truckers, the caterpillar deer, commodities, economically sensitive, financials. Go through a litany more. We're in bare markets, bearish phases, not participating, but how a select,

narrow few names have been helping the indices along. We've mentioned to you seven names were 51% of NASDAQ 100 and 23% of the S&P. But all of a sudden, it's getting reported, one after the other, reporting it.

And we're just thinking to ourselves are we getting close to the turn that now everything's getting reported? So that was number one. Number two, we saw the Dow again hold the longer term 200-day moving average. That was yesterday. Number three, I call it the inkling. What's the inkling? well they certainly weren't really moving and as I was scanning yesterday I was not really impressed with the strong day that the market had

I didn't see anything technically great I mentioned to our peeps American Express and United Health in the Dow looked like they turned the corner so a little bit but nothing that impressive but we had this inkling so we mentioned to you, we're just letting you know, we think there's a chance here that the rest of the market is going to play catch-up. That's what we told you yesterday. And not by accident, but by adding little pieces of the puzzle. Just one plus one, plus one. The sentiment part, the reporting of it part.

And remember, this is our own little wrinkle we've added. We've added this to O'Neill, Stan Weinstein, who we study and study and study. We added our own little things that we have recognized throughout the years. And the greatest extreme, and I'll never forget it, is when in 2008, I went to the bank and took out 25,000 bucks in cash because I was so worried about the house coming down. three months later the market bottomed talk about extreme bearish sentiment so that said

the moving market wrap is brought to you by investment dash models.com that's Jim Moraback one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models.com the Dow's up 737 as I speak I don't care why.

There was a job report. I don't care. The S&P's up 69 as I speak. The NASDAQ is actually laboring 154, 128 on NASDAQ 100. The transport's up 309. Energy stocks, strong. Financials, strong. S&P breaks above range.

My stuff screen, which is all the stock. economically sensitive, financials, transports, rails, truckers, commodities, sea of green. And the technical condition has changed now. Yesterday, okay, we'll see. It's changed. The complexion has changed. These areas are what I call turning up. Simple as that.

These areas are turning up. Remember how we've been so bearish. Caterpillar deal, we've been saying all long. Caterpillar deal. Yesterday we said, hmm, caterpillar's up 8% today. Breaking the 50-day moving average to the upside with volume, just about, I think, breaking the downtrend line.

And remember, these things were in definable downtrends. A bunch of it has changed. And just letting you know. What you do with it, you get to decide. and I'll use my usual. How long it lasts, don't know, how far it goes, don't know. All we know, it's starting up. And the hope is, just remember, these things have been den money.

All the money's been flocking two. What? You know it, too. So a lot of these things are now under-owned. And what happens when people see they're moving and they don't have enough? They jump on and they get going. And then they get going. So we'll see.

We're just letting you know. We had that inkling. Yesterday, we mentioned it to you. Today, we get the confirmation. And I must tell you, I'm actually patting myself on the back a little bit because, and I never do that. I even wrote some kind words to myself today. Up next, we'll continue with this. I'm Gary.

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be,

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to the moment, to the people in it. Over time, the photos started to pile up on the fridge, on shelves tucked into books. Each one a reminder that meaning isn't always planned. That's what I appreciate about eBay. It's a place where you can find things that bring people together and pass along things you no longer need so they can become part of someone else's memories.

To listen to more, check out the full episode wherever you get your podcasts. Visit eBay.com to shop your favorite finds. Find what you love, sell what you don't. eBay, things people love. I earned my degree online at Arizona State University. I chose to get my degree at ASU because I knew that I'd get a quality education.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So I never write any good words about myself, but I actually wrote to myself earlier today. Amazing call by me on the broad market. Everyone reporting it now.

Call. And then the feel. The feel of it. And boom. And let me repeat. We never know if something's going to work. We never do. You lay your bets.

as we always say to you, what we do here is we look at a photo album for familiar faces. History repeats itself, fear and greed. O'Neill taught me it. That fear and greed in the year 1900 is the same in 2023. It's just faster and you've got social media and all kinds of crap, but people are still fearful when things are crapping out and things are all gleeful when they're bubbling up. That's how it works. My job is to harness, especially the extremes.

because that's where most money can be made. And it just felt like we were getting to the extreme on one area. Well, it's not necessarily one area of the market, the stuff area of the market. Now let's talk about the other side. Here's a guess. And I mentioned it to my peeps this morning as this was going on. I said to them, just so you know, what I think also could happen here is that the things that have been really strong, I think probably may start to sit.

Settle down, pull back. Number one, technically, technical analysis 101, they're in the trees. Some of them gone vertical, like Nvidia's gone vertical. Broadcom vertical. Some of the semis vertical. Some of the software names, vertical. Because all they had to do is say, artificial intelligence. My guess earlier was we're going to get some underperformance by them now,

not necessarily get trashed, but underperform versus these other areas now. And what's happened today? Oh, NVIDIA's down five, which is no problem, by the way, because as we've told you, if that thing's going to 500, we're going to be in. Lamb Research is down six, Chipotle's down 15, you know, a few others a week, but not really bad. because then there's Microsoft that's still up three today. There's some AI news. We're just letting you know all the areas we have been telling you to avoid.

We were thinking the complexion was changing yesterday. Out of nowhere. But photo album for familiar faces and today we get confirmation. But I do want to repeat. We never know how long it lasts, how far it goes. We don't even know if it's going to work. We just know the photo album for familiar faces and what we do. Stan Weinstein has this line, the weight of the evidence. We didn't make up that line. He did. You add it up. And when I tell you, imagine if the market was just 100 stocks and 100 stocks are in a downtrend that looks like if you took out a pencil and you start at 10 o'clock at night, a watch and draw it down to four, downtrend.

And then all of a sudden you're at four o'clock, you come straight up. Go look at Caterpillar today. That's what it looks like. And that typically is a change of complexion, and the more names and areas that do it gives it more conviction. And I can tell you my whole stuff page has that look today. And we'll see where it goes. That's all.

do not be surprised if some of the stuff that everybody's been yelling about starts to moderate settles down which is fine by me i think i explained myself well and it's 314 p.m we're still up 723 s mp 66 transports 304 and again these were the areas we told you to avoid it changed today it changed confirmation day changed how you play it you get to decide we just let you know what we think

we don't tell you what to do and that's that which takes us to the next party equation why how can this be isn't everybody saying recession well what have we been telling you as long as job market stays in shape it's very tough to have recessions

You can have rolling recessions. I can tell you, Dollar General and Dollar Tree are having a recession. They came out with a jobs report. It stayed strong again. In fact, got better. Added more than expected. Yeah, the unemployment went from 3.5 to 37, but that's because more people in the workforce. And that may be the market driving the market here.

on an economic basis, because these are really economic areas that we're talking about. When I say transports, what do you think of? The economy. When I say economically sensitive, the economy. Financials to a lesser extent, but still the economy, and of course the financials have their own thing they're dealing with right now. And I must tell you, it looks like the financials have put in a low. even with all that crap going on and what you have to think about with the financials how hated are they how scared is everybody of them so if they start to work we're not saying they're going to but if they start to work and it feeds guess what more money flows so the kre even the regional banks edged above the 50 day moving average today the big banks the xlf the xlf Move above the 50-day moving average today, and you know how important that is to our work. And we'll see how it plays out.

What we tend to look for is the strongest. I can tell you, J.P. Morgan is within three points of a new yearly high, while so many things are way, way down nearly lows. So if financials work and J.P. Morgan is nearer to new yearly highs, that means it can get through those highs better. and you know how much we love new yearly highs because everybody's in profit, everybody's happy, there's no resistance of selling. We'll see what happens there. So we're quite thrilled with our thought process this week. And we don't say that very often.

Thrilled. And it came from amazingly, it came from seeing, people reporting all these bad areas as bare markets, even though it's been going on for months. That was the start. Up next, what else is going on? This is the one only investor's edge. Hey, it's Jay Shetty from On Purpose.

Check out the best of a moment we did presented by eBay. I'd never owned a vintage camera before. There was something about it that felt almost unnecessary in a world where everything lives on our phones. but I wanted to change that. So I started the hunt for a point-and-shoot camera. When I finally found the perfect one on eBay, I didn't keep it to myself,

I left it out on a table. Always within reach, people started picking it up without asking, family, friends, everyone, to take a photo of whatever felt important to them in that moment. There was no editing, no retakes, you took the photo and that was it. The moment became real right away.

It was about choosing something. Deciding this matters, even if it came out blurry, the vintage camera belonged to the room, to the moment, to the people in it. Over time, the photos started to pile up on the fridge, on shelves tucked into books. Each one a reminder that meaning isn't always planned.

That's what I appreciate about eBay. It's a place where you can find things that bring people together and pass along things you no longer need so they can become part of someone else's memories. To listen to more, check out the full episode wherever you get your podcasts. Visit eBay.com to shop your favorite finds. Find what you love, sell what you don't. eBay, things people love.

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We're listening to America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb Comes highly recommended

You're going to feel better if you talk to him And once again to Investors Edge It is 319 p.m So we're not going to take you to the close I got to go get my MRI Daup 730 NASDAQ 152 NASDAQ 100-122 transports 314.

And by the way, these are just 2% moves in the Dow. 1.6 in the S&P. Oh, so how can you tell? We can tell. Remember, we got this thing called the roadmap and how things look and how they trade and where they move to and where they move from and how much volume is in them.

I can also tell you in the Dow, Boeing. We're watching that closely. You know why? Because it's been a tight trading range for six months and has been tightening up and it's coming up near the highs quicker than everything else. So we're sitting there watching that. We're ready to pounce on that.

If it breaks out a range, only one issue. They continue to lose money, but it's Boeing. And remember how we said how many Dow stocks? Bad shape? Well, American Express, we said, may be turning up yesterday. It's up six bucks today to 169. United Health yesterday, it's up seven bucks today to 500. And the worst of, some of the worst of,

look like they're turning the corner a little bit. What impresses me most is the Caterpillar. And that's still 40 bucks off the highs of January, but it looks like it's turning. So we just want to repeat some things here. You never know if something works. You just put your best foot forward. You don't know how long it lasts, how far it goes.

You just know, I'm looking to my left here in my office. You know what I have in front of me? I have all the workbooks from all the O'Neill workshops. I have 10,000 charts separated by time or look, bull markets and bear markets. and I've looked through him so often, so many times, so intently, with focus, that looking at a photo album for familiar faces. And we know when trend lines are broken to the downside. We know when they're broken to the upside. We know what's leading, what's lagging because of how much time we put into this.

And it's still not easy. I've got to tell you. confession there's a a a we sold some things off too quickly in the last few weeks that we made double digits on but they went higher but such as life there's about seven to ten names that i am so pissed off at myself for not playing so there's no guarantees in success and i'm not going to mention the names but There was like seven to ten names. How the hell do I play that? Gary, there's your photo album with familiar faces.

How did you not play that? Well, welcome to my world. It's not a perfect science. This is physical. It's psychological. We're doing great, but we will always want to do greater, unlike what some of these schools are trying to do to the kids. So anyway, to my left here is the,

I'm trying to think what date this is. December 5th to December 6th, 2009, the Can Slim Masters Program at the Fairmont Miramar Hotel. That's 14 years ago. And what it's showing is market leadership from 2009, how Netflix broke out at 36 bucks and just rammed to the upside. Amazon, same thing. Green Mountain Coffee that year. I missed that one. CERner, Vista Print, Apple coming out of the bare market in March 09.

What do I do with these things? Oh, I sit with my dog and I go through them and I study them and I make sure if they show up again in new stocks now that I refer to them and I remember them and I get in them. and then they have what is known as these divergence study cases where before the bare markets ended, stocks were already zooming higher. And it shows Walmart in 82, how the market kept cracking and cracking and cracking to September of 82 while Walmart kept making new highs

because they were growing leaps and bounds. And guess what Walmart stock did once the market was going? Oh, it was scoring big time. putting points on the scoreboard. So this is what we do. And I can promise you this weekend, in between the hot tubs and the steam rooms and the MRI, oh, I'm going to be studying the hell out of this market.

Because just in case, if this is just the start of a move right here in this area of the market, and if it just lasts three months, Oh, you're going to have a couple years of gains. So we're working on it already. That's how we roll in real time. And we still are pissed off that I didn't play a couple. By the way, we saw these names. We just didn't play them.

And we go back and try to think what we were thinking then. How did I not just even buy a little bit of them? And sometimes you can't even answer that question. But you try to put yourself in that place. and get better. So that gives you a little bit of understanding of us this week. And again, we'll see if it continues. Simple as that, we'll see.

But quite a good day in those areas that we thought something was up. And if we had to guess, they're moving on, The end of the world is not at hand right now. The massive debt deficits and morons run in this country, yet to destroy the country. Just remember, what they have going for them is us. 150 million of us go to work every day to do better for ourselves and our family. What a great asset to have. What a great asset those asses have.

Us. So maybe that's at work here. And there you go. Now, speaking of them for a second, or do I even want to discuss them? Because they discussed me. There's a few heroes there that have been speaking up big time. I applaud them. One who stands out for me right now is a gentleman by name of Chip Roy.

I don't even know who the hell the guy is. But boy, I was listening to him. sounded just like me. And it sounded like he was not feeding the BS. Chip Roy, American attorney and politician, U.S. Representative for Texas, 21st Congressional District, a member of the public party, since January 3rd, 2019, took office in 2019.

I'm going to have to contact him and thank him. Boy, if we can have a bunch of him. He sounded like me. He wasn't selling. Like so many of these politicians do. They sell. They BS. And I must tell you, I saw President Biden fell yesterday.

It's so stupid of these Republicans. Oh, he fell and he's old and they ain't going to mean anything. Talk policy. Biden's out there taking credit for the jobs. And I take credit for Denver beating Miami last night. by the way congratulations that Nicola yokic boy is he good but i got a sneaking suspicion Miami's not going to be sitting down

i think it's going to be a pretty decent series and that's the take and by the way as we mention all these charts that i was just mentioning from that one workshop that's what we do every night in our webcasts we go through a photo album of familiar faces every night up next. News of the day is we take you close to the close of the day. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This is Sophia Bush from Work in Progress with Sophia Bush. Check out this

special moment we did on our show presented by eBay. When I was living in Chicago, I took part in my first ever giant charity sale and I was able to auction several items from my personal closet on eBay. They items that marked huge moments in my life and in my career. And though I was ready to pass them along, I also wanted to make sure they were going to someone who would love them. One of the things I loved them most about doing this with eBay is there was a way for everyone to shop. It wound up being so much fun to see where each and every item was going, where it was going to be loved. And in passing items along like that, authenticity really matters to the person who's getting them. That's why I love eBay's authenticity guarantee.

They weren't just listing my items. They were verifying them, making sure something was genuinely from where it claimed to be, in this case, my closet. To listen to more, check out the full episode wherever you get your podcasts. Find what you love, sell what you don't. eBay,

things people love. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. At Arizona State University, we're bringing world-class education from our globally acclaimed faculty to you. Earn your degree from the nation's most innovative university online. That's a degree better. Learn more at ASUonline.asu.org. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. All right. It's 3.30.

So we'll take you to about 3.40. Who knows how we finished today? Dow's up 702. S&P 63, NASDAQ 136, NASDAQ, 105, transports 297. Advance the client's pretty good. Very good. And I must tell you, new highs have picked up today.

I can't wait to see what they are. And we'll do that after the close today. But we do know one thing. I'm just letting you know. Do not be surprised if the areas and the names that everybody's been yapping about, they come under a little bit of relative strength weakness right now. It doesn't mean they get trashed. Just relative strength weakness.

I'm going to take the high road on something else. I was going to say. In the news, hey, great, Florida recreational marijuana campaign gets required signatures. Yay. So Florida will be the big bong hit also. By the way, for those of I said, you go to New York City, it's just one big, gigantic bong hit there. What can I tell you? Also in the news, California has spent $17 billion on homeless. I'm just going through things. So interesting that the effort is there to do something about the homeless. This is a state, not a country.

$17 billion. Guess what? Failed. Why does it fail? because they don't ever, ever go to fix the problem of why and then what? Do you know a lot of homeless people had jobs? Can work, but lost their jobs. Didn't have enough wherewithal or family to help.

How do you alleviate that? It's called direct. And I use the word confrontation in a good way. You get there. You work with them. You get them into work fare. Not here's a check. And they don't understand that these socialist Marxists thinks it's all about a check.

In the news. Well, here's some good news. The debt limit bill did cancel 30 billion in payments. pandemic relief funding that was never spent, even though they really wanted to hold onto it. Good to see that. What's the problem with that? They replace it with something else. In the news, some nausea.

The op-eds are out and people are talking about the debt ceiling. Here's an op-ed. McCarthy earns the speakership. The debt ceiling vote was the product of the deliberate, well-considered strategy. Strategy of what? Let me repeat, ladies and gentlemen, the outcome that nobody wants to tell you this coming year is going to be almost a 50% increase in spending from just four years ago, 2019, with anywhere between 1.5 to 2 trillion of debt, and they're taking victory laps.

they're taking victory laps. It's amazing to watch. In the news, we're just letting you know the Fed is not going to raise rates in June. I believe in the next couple of weeks is the meeting. They've telegraphed it. I do not believe this strong job number is going to change that. And I don't know if it really matters or not. We'll see.

In the news, well, here's another op-ed. a debt-sealing deal that doesn't deal with the debt, and now somebody's talking the truth. But nobody cares. Why? Markets up today. So all the op-eds are out. It's kind of laughable.

Makes me want to vomit. What can I tell you? In the news, and we don't make this up. And, you know, New York and Chicago, some crime issues and stuff. So state lawmakers in New York are inching forward towards approving

what is known as the Clean Slate Legislation to seal criminal records for the vast majority of crimes both misdemeanors and felonies. The clean slate means, oh, so if you're hiring somebody, you should not know if they murdered somebody. Wait a minute, Gary. They're not going to do that with murderers.

are they? Well, in some cases they may. I'm not kidding. I'm not kidding. They're insane. Their whole thought process is how to protect the criminals and how to screw the citizens. It's pro-criminal policymaking. Second chances are huge. They're important. But you've got to have some sort of measuring stick. If somebody beat the crap out of 10 people, people and I'm going to be interviewing him. I need to know that. Not in New York. So the beat goes on, ladies and gentlemen. It's, don't know what to tell you. We have to keep reporting it because these cities matter, these places matter. Donald Trump, I guess he did a thing last night. I'm just going to stay speechless. How's that? I don't believe.

a word that comes out of his mouth. Some of the things he says is just, yeah, that's the ticket. Anyway, it's 3.37 p.m. We're still up 700. NASDAQ 141. Very strong broad market day. Let's hope it closes well. We'll have a lot more over the weekend.

Convictionleaders.com, if you want to see my webcast this weekend, at garyk.com, you have a great weekend drive carefully. When you get home, do like I do. It's simple. Make sure you hug your family. make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise. Peace out, all. Thanks for joining. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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