Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Great Week In Review!

Episode Date: October 28, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Friday. It's the 28th, October, 2022. Lots to cover, as we always do. first off let me state for the record just in case i forget hope you have a great weekend that would be number one as it is now friday this is good news number two your 401k's much much better we're going to

talk about that in just a moment but first if you do not get this radio show in your city we will post it at gary k dot com we will also post it on our Twitter feed, you can email me, just be nice. And by the way, at garyk.com, if you are not on our Twitter feed, you can press the button. It'll take you right to our Twitter feed. And you can write there. And in case you don't know, as of today, Elon Musk now owns Twitter. And we'll get to that in a little bit also because some stuff happened today. And we're going to tell you the problem. We'll get to that. in a little bit. You know what I'm talking about, right? The extreme on one and extreme on the other.

And we'll put it together. But first, after we just did the introduction. When we left you yesterday, Apple had reported earnings after Amazon had reported. Amazon was down $23 in the after market on, can I use the word piss poor? Yeah, I can't. On piss poor numbers as well as outlook. Apple reported pedestrian numbers. Pedestrian. You know what that means, right? They were okay. The things they said going forward, not so good. Nothing hysterically bad, but not so good. Apple was down $6 in the aftermarket. giving back $96 billion of market cap. Futures on the NASDAQ 100 were down 2.5%.

Fast forward to this morning, Apple was flat. I was like, wow, Apple's flat. Fast forward to the close. And I don't know if we can put all the pieces of the puzzle together in one short radio show. We'll do them on webcast this weekend, but the market wrap is brought to by Investment-Models.com.

That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers. No great areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. You ready? The NASDAQ finished up 309. The NASDAQ 100 finished up 354.

That's about 3%. after being downed 2.5% in the aftermarket yesterday. Apple, which was down 6, finished up 11 today. Now, let me describe what 11 is on Apple. Take $11 times $16 billion. My Rusty Abacus says that's $176 billion of market cap. Apple gain today. By the way, these are not complaints.

We're just stating facts. Apple gained in market cap today $176 billion. Let me write that down. 176 billion of market cap. 176, let's see. Goldman Sachs market cap 116 billion. Total. You get where I'm going with this?

GM, 56 billion. Ford, 53 billion. Apple was 176 billion today. Home Depot. Well, that's actually 300 billion on Home Depot. But Apple was close. Disney, 190. Apple moved almost Disney today. Intel, 119 billion. I'm just going to do the down. Merck, 255 billion, kind of close to Merck. 3M, 69 billion. Apple moved almost three times the amount of the market cap of 3M. Amazing, huh? Amazing. I don't need to do any more.

I think you get the point right. DuPont 29 billion. Cisco 180. Huh. Anyway, the questions I got today, what happened? Here's the answer. Buyers. That's all. Buyers. Short covering, I'm sure. Buyers. Why? Don't know. Did yields come down? No, they went up. Did the dollar come down? No, they went up. What's going on? Buyers. That's all I can tell you. What was all the reporting today? Recession, depression, and inflation, inflation, depression, recession, recession, depression, inflation.

That's why it is not the news, it's how the market reacts to the news. That's why we pay attention to everything, you know that. At the same time, we don't pay attention to anything when it comes to the market. And then there's what we call outlier. O-U-T-L-I-E-R, what does that mean? to us, something out of the ordinary. Like if the New York Knicks ever won an NBA championship, that would be outlier. You got that?

If I didn't sit down with a piece of pizza and not eat the whole pizza, you ever have always want to slice a pizza and then realize you're on your fifth? It's why I never touch Doritos. If I eat one chip, you give me the party bag. It's over. The outlier is, I want you to leave you. listen carefully. The leading major index by far is the Dow. The Dow is always the lagging index on the way up and the lagging index on the way down. Why is that? Because it's the lower beta boring stuff.

The Dow over the last six days from last Friday, first, oh, let's back it up. On October 13th, That big reversal day, we said to you, we thought that was a good reversal low for now. We never go past what our headlights see. We just say that. Good reversal low, upside testing. Those are the words we exactly use, not paraphrasing, those are the words. On Friday of last week, we said to you, we think that's a confirming day. What is a confirming day?

it is an action, it is a day, it is a characteristic that says that low looks to have stuck. It was real for now. We had a confirming day on July 19th, and we rallied up a few more weeks. What else we tell you on a confirming day is we have no idea how long it lasts or how far it goes, or if it works. And how does we know a confirming day doesn't work? within a few days you get some serious distribution which is heavy volume selling instead get this we're going to use the low of friday knowing it was a 900 point spread on friday and we're talking the dow the dow has gone from 30,200 up 2,600 points since the low on friday now from the high on

Friday, it has gone up 1,800 points. And into earnings reports. Remember, you know what this week was? Massive earnings. Massive.

And into this week, stocks were on the move. We'll tell you which names were on the move and then what happened this week. Amazing. And then what? That's up on Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same,

needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 888-5-5-9. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb, capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers

the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. see Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

So, again, if we sound a little bit different today, it's because we are on the iPhone app. And I think it sounds a little bit different. But you can hear everything I say. So into earnings this week, and when I mean earnings, I have my earnings sheet here somewhere. I'm going to guess there's 800 to 1,000 to 1,000. names. And you know what earnings this week were? You ready? Today was Chevron and Exxon in the in the Dow. And I don't even meant you know, Ab V, Aon, insurance, charter communications and media. Yesterday, U.S. Steel, Texas Roadhouse, Republic Services. In the Dow, Intel, First Solar,

Eastman Chemical, Decker's Outdoor, Capital One Financial, Apple and Amazon, which is 20% of the NASDAQ 100. L3 Harris, LPL financials, Mohawk Industries. I hear they have nice carpet. That's after the close. Before the Open. Western Digital. Shopify, Royal Caribbean, Reliance Steel, Northrop Grumman, Merck and McDonald's and Honeywell in the Dow. Twitter, but that didn't matter.

that's no longer trading. Lazard. Stanley Black and Decker. This is just this week. T. Roe Price. Auto Nation. Caterpillar in the Dow. Checkpoint software.

Comcast, Fiserve, Altria Group. Wednesday. You think I was kidding? United Rentals, Teladoc, Spirit Airlines, Facebook, which stock was destroyed. L.A. 10 Corp. Ford, Canadian Pacific, Canadian National, Service Now, Raymond James Financial, O'Reilly Automotive, before the open the day before.

Wingstop, Waste Management, Seagate, Old Dominion, Norfolk Southern, Bear with me, Masco, Hilton, Amarada Hess, Harley Davidson, Garmin, in the Dow Boeing, ADP, Bristol, Mark. This is this week. Visa, Texas Instruments, Microsoft, Visa and Microsoft in the Dow, Google, Chipotle, Enphase, Canadian National, UPS, Sherwin Williams, Coca-Cola in the Dow, GM, this is this week, 3M in the Dow. So things were rallying into this week, and then earnings. 3M reports a sales drop. hardly any earnings growth. 3M in the Dow this week went up 68 Dow points.

You get where I'm going on all this? Honeywell this week went up 130 Dow points. This is earnings week. Coca-Cola this week on 6% earnings went up 50 Dow points this week. Caterpillar. Now, I got to say Caterpillar had some good earnings. How about 260 Dow points on Caterpillar this week?

Apple, on their whopping 4% earnings growth, well, today was about 70 Dow points. Visa this week. Let's call it about 160 Dow points this week. And as I look at the Dow, from the day we said we thought a low was in to Friday's little confirmation, remember the Dow was down 5,600 points in two months, 3,800 points in one month. From the low, and it's the low of October 13th, on that 1,500 point reversal day, you got back that 3,800. Dow points. Interesting enough, the S&P, not even close. And I mean not even close. The NASDAQ doesn't even look like it's come off the lows. And normally in rallies, the NASDAQ leads the S&P second, the Dow first. What gives? I don't know.

I'm just letting you know I think you can actually call it revenge of the nerds over the last two weeks now NASDAQ played a little bit of catch-up today and the semiconductors not even close but they played a little bit catch-up

towards the end of the day also you know the high beta stocks we talk about the growth we call them the bombed out saw a couple of movers today, most of them, hardly moving with a bunch red today. And don't get me started on the Chinese stocks, were crushed again today. Let me take that.

Crushed on a versus versus, versus, and at our new year, new yearly lows. So let me just state for the Dow rates a big wow. The S&P looks kind of normal rally. The NASDAQ not so normal that it should be definitely a lot more. But the Dow, wow, stunning. And when we go back in on ETFs, we buy the S&P. So we made on the things we bought off of the low and the confirmation day.

But the Dow, outlier event. Why is the market going up? I really don't know. And I really don't care. We just know we had a major gargantuan reversal day. Last Friday was the confirmation day. And this week rates a big wow for the Dow. And everything else went all said and done. Notwithstanding the blowups because that was big in the news. Huge in the news. The one name that bounced today was Microsoft, but still, way off the just the recent highs, let alone the highs of two months ago, let alone the highs of all time. So did I say wow? Wow. And all we can tell you is the market's in an uptrend off of the reversal day and the confirmation, and we'll let you know when it ends, just like we've done in every other rally we've had.

Up next is at the end of the bare market. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to.

America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So all we get is the under the bear is. We don't look at it that way. We're back when an up trend, off of the confirmation, and we'll let you know when it ends. Simple as that. What I will say, there's no doubt in my mind, there's a bunch of names that have seen their lows. And unless we go into the dust, they've seen their lows. That shouldn't be hard to figure out.

And as we've said to you in the recent days, leading into earnings, where's been the strength? Number one. Defense stocks. Everybody likes a good war. Manage care stocks. These are HMOs. A select few insurance stocks. A select few drug stocks.

A select few big biotech. And if, oh, auto parts retail. and a select few big names. Now, I take that back, select few other names, excuse me, that really don't fit into a category. I can tell you that, well, smuckers is a newly high on their 12% drop in earnings and no sales growth. So that's food.

We'll give you that. So that's what we mean by that. But now this week, once I get done with my scans, there'll be other things that I can talk about. McDonald's was near New Yearly lows or in and around the day of the reversal day two weeks ago. It's at New Yearly highs today. on a 3% drop in earnings and a 5% drop in sales. We don't make this up. Now, you know what the next thing I usually say.

Just remember, for whatever reason this is happening, if companies don't grow their earnings, eventually they're going to hit a brick wall. Just leave no doubt a bit... By the way, McDonald's, in about 10 days, And it started moving before earnings, which we didn't think we're good, but they said something about traffic. Let's call that 190 Dow points in about 10 days. On a 3% drop in earnings and a 5% drop in sales, imagine if they had real good numbers.

Ameri Price Financial, 11% drop in earnings. That was good enough to watch the stock go from, 280s. to 311 in three days. Imagine if they had earnings growth. But all that is noise. We're just letting you know. Reversal day, followed by Friday's confirmation day.

Reversal was, I believe, on a... Let me make sure I get this right before I tell you. The reversal was October 13th, a Thursday. The next Friday was the confirmation day. And then this week, wow. In earnings. That's the hook. What do I mean by that?

I don't buy anything before earnings. Hell no. Why? I don't want to end up with a Facebook or a Carlisle. By the way, Carlisle announces an earnings up 89 and revenues up 36 and the stock was down 43 bucks today. I don't play earnings wheel of ramma. and this just happened to be a whatever is going on earnings now if i was a guessing man i think a couple of things are going on a we had a big drop b interest rates have now stopped going up they're

still up but stopped and the fed leaked leaked nothing by accident my business leaked about them slowing things up and black rock reported it That means they leaked it to black rock people, which should be illegal and people should go to jail, but not in my business. Remember all the fraud that was committed in 2008. Nobody was indicted. They just got promoted. So I can't complain about anything except there's still plenty of stuff that ain't even budging. And if you look at a chart and sometimes the picture is the cliche.

I hate cliches, but I'm going to say it. Pictures worth a thousand words. Nah, let me take away the cliche. A thousand and one words. The NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, are woeful versus the Dow. The S&Ps in between. This is the opposite of what usually happens on rallies.

We'll see what it means going forward. As far as the biggies. Apple got back above the 50 day-to-day, volume was 87% percent. above normal on that 4% earnings growth amazing Amazon which opened up to Amazon which opened up today the low was 98 closed at 103 it was 87 in the aftermarket yesterday and that's you know we don't touch after market Facebook meta was up a buck today to 99 and that thing has just been absolutely

trashed. Microsoft was up nine today. It gapped down on Wednesday and it still has not gotten back to the gap. Google that one

had a bad reaction on Wednesday hasn't got back to the gap but both rallied up. Google 4%. Microsoft rallied 4% also and that's normal after a drop like that on a good day like today.

Sentiment. Remember back at the lows, for a couple of weeks we were talking about sentiment was about as bearish as we've seen, oversold, stretched and extended as we've seen. We've gone coast to coast, especially on the Dow types. Masses are now excited. The oscillators that we really don't follow, but others do and are very good at it. have gone coast to coast. But that just tells you what kind of move we've had in the Dow.

Stunning. And again, we think the Fed leaked, the combination of that. Interest rates have stopped going up, the drop we had, and the world isn't ending, unlike what some people say. And let me just state for the record,

there are a bunch of people that think the world's falling, off a cliff. I'm serious. I don't make that up. We'll just keep watching the market. They did play a little catch-up today on the semis and some, you know, the little bigger tech, but again, in the higher beta, those are the bombed out stocks. They were red all day until the final move towards the close, but still plenty of them finished red. Snowflake down nine, PayPal down Roblox down Net down

Etsy down 3 Crowdstrike down Datad down Data Dog down Bill down Chinese ADR smoked I can't wait to scan this

bad boy But most 401ks are in some of this stodgy stuff So great I could not be happier I hope the whole market

lifts big time love to see it I'd be a happy camp and that was today stunning from the aftermarket yesterday and we got an email from somebody how does that happen how does the market take in earnings after market getting trash and that complete opposite the next day the answer I don't know up next this that the other thing and whatever else I'm Gary this is the one the only investors edge this message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere where people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300. annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready. Go. Investers Edge with Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. So Elon Musk has taken over Twitter. I guess people that were banned are back on and blah, blah, blah, blah, and blah, blah, blah. You know, we always say on this show,

that most all of us just want to wake up every morning and do good for our families, for ourselves. Just do good. Want to enjoy the day. Enjoy the evening. Whatever that may be. Unfortunately, there are sides that have agendas. And there are sides that don't have agendas that are just what we believe are insane. You know what I mean by that.

The clown that said Sandy Hook never happened. You know. On the other side, what was that kid's name? Jussie Smollett, who tried to create a massive race incident by saying he was beaten up by some white people. Left and right. Right and left. You know, most of us, again, just want to enjoy the day.

Let me tell you what happens today. And why I just want to... And I don't think this has been preaching. It's just, man, oh man. So Paul Pelosi is the husband of Nancy Pelosi, who, as you know, I can't stand. She's been part of the huge problem in D.C. That has taken us to $31 trillion of debt.

I disagree with a politics vehemently. I believe she's corrupt. But I don't want her husband beat up. I don't want her murdered. I don't want her dying. I'd like her to be out of office. Elections. I don't know if you read, but a person got into the house of Pelosi.

She was not there. He was there. And broke the door or windows and got in and somebody had a hammer. And he hammered the hell out of Mr. Pelosi and this is all kinds of stuff. He's either surgery, not surgery, but looks like he's going to be okay. Well, that's the story, but that's not the story. Guess what's happened? Well, the extreme on one end say it's a setup. It's another Jussie Smollett. Because the other side is saying, oh, it's a MAGA person. Neither of these extremes.

know what's happened. But they're out yelling and screaming and in droves. And you know which network on the left. The MSNBC types. Oh, it's all Trump and Mag. You get my point? Everybody's trying to make points and nobody even knows what the hell happened yet.

This could be a mental patient. It can be a robbery. Or it can be somebody on the political side who's insane. You remember there was a Bernie Sanders guy that shot up a social person. softball field, almost killing Steve Scalish. If these people are the extremes, and I mean the extremes, do not take the temperature down, catch my drift.

I think I'm guilty sometimes, but we talk policy here. We talk tax policy, energy policy, defense policy, corruption, and we have no bias. I'm just letting you know what I saw just from this. With neither side knowing what happened, they're all with the conclusions already. Defending their turf. While the 90-some-odd percent of us that just, you know, we have opinions, but we don't have the agenda to make ourselves, you get my point.

We'll find out very quickly what happened. and let's hope he's going to be okay and whoever did this will be charged with attempted murder and put the guy in jail for a long, long time. I just wanted to make that point. The temperature. Because 90-some-odd percent of ourselves we just want good for everybody. Don't you agree? Anyway, that's my little theme at the end of the day.

Back on point. Dang! the Dow. And just so, you know, I've owned Dow stocks, but I ain't own in Dow stocks with minus 3% earnings and 5% revenue. In the past, I've owned Home Depot. I've owned Apple.

I've owned J.P. Morgan. Have I owned McDonald's recent? I don't know. United Health. I've owned Goldman at appropriate times. but mostly I'm looking for more umph the Dow had umph in just the last just so you know 11 trading days

11 trading days from bare market lows wow anyway we wish you all a great weekend we hope you understand where I'm coming from when we do the little political side. We just want good for all of us and everybody with equal opportunity. We wish everybody greatness.

You all have a great weekend. Drive carefully, and when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. Give your pet a great hug also. Monday I'll be on with Charles Payne 2 p.m. Fox Business Network. That's about it for the schedule.

again, have a great weekend, and we'll be back same time Monday evening. Thanks again for joining us. It's always an honor that you'd even listen to us. Bye, bye, by all. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.