Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The harrowing week in review [04.04.2025]

Episode Date: April 4, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, we're really happy that you're listening. It is April 4th. It's Friday. It's 2025. Okay. In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We do the markets and we'll do more of the markets. We'll do tariffs and we'll do more of the tariffs because I'm very careful with my words. Let's just call it a market dislocation. We're going to start off with the week in review and then tell you about today.

But again, this is serious talk on everything affects you. The markets, your job, your industry, the tariffs. I'm not so sure I need to go further. If you do not get this radio show in your city, I'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post it at our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you'd like to email us, we just need you to be. nice because we're always going to be nice back.

And I must tell you, throughout my talk of the last few days or so on the tariffs, I've had a good amount of people that love President Donald Trump. And we don't quibble with that, but all trying to fight the facts. of what I have been telling you and warning you about. The way they have done this, the way they have messaged it, I can only say is an absolute gargantuan, unforced error. And in my mind, by the way, this has nothing to do with the market yet. one of the biggest economic blunders in ages.

They have tried to convince the many that it had to be done, and it is not true. They had tried to convince the many that everybody's screwing and cheating. That is not true. they tried to convince the many that unless they did this, your life and Latin life will be cheated on. That's not true. They used a made-up formula on what others were doing to us in case you don't know.

A tariff is a specific number based on what somebody's going to be charged for imported goods. And instead they put out a chart of the difference between the import and export. But the fact that a matter is, we're going to definitely buy more. than everybody else because we're bigger than everybody else. That made no sense. But back on the markets, I specifically told you and did what I consider to be

one of my best radio shows this week on the definition, on the tariffs, and all that crap. I explained to you the folly of what they were doing. And remember, we always say to you, everything we do is with no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive. We don't care whether it's R or D or I or the Whig Party. We will comment on policy.

We ripped the stuffings out of Biden for four years. We have done nothing but praise Trump on many things, but this one was a biggie, an absolute biggie. And to explain and not do long form explanation, they just put a massive gargantuan trade war into effect. They have foisted upon the American public massive amount of uncertainty, as well as the potential for gargantuan taxes on just any and all products coming from other places, made in other places, but sold here,

they have put into effect. Well, let me give you an example of a situation. Earlier today, first we've been told by the press secretary that he is firm. He is firm on the terrace. but then somebody else comes out and states otherwise, which puts more uncertainty to it. So if he's firm on tariffs, why, then why would he be negotiating?

So earlier today, and believe me, we want negotiations. It was announced that he has been talking with Vietnam, which is without a doubt a big-time producer of footwear and apparel. As soon as that came out, the market bounced, did not hold, but the apparel and retail stocks rallied. So definitively, definitively, this is tariff moved. The problem is Vietnam's GDP is about $500 billion. The problem is China is $18 to $19 trillion, and the European Union together is about $18, 19 trillion. And both of them have basically told President Trump to go screw himself

which means screw us. China reciprocated in kind. The European Union is saying we're going to start dealing more with everybody else because we cannot trust what's coming from the United States. By the way, we're not saying Trump is wrong about putting some tariffs on. What we are saying is doing it in a support. price fashion, with nobody knowing what he was going to do, companies not knowing what he's going to do, business.

Oh, we know he's been saying he's going to tariff, but every freaking country in the world and we're in ridiculous numbers based on a flawed formula, therein lies the problem, therein lies a dislocation in the market. They screwed up. They should have prepared for the big, matzabal and the kitchen sink and they did not in fact they were playing down in the two days to the run-up of those charts and in case you don't know we were doing the radio show at the time where it first came out 10% tariffs and the market in the after market was rallying big time but as soon

as that poster board came out boom starting of the dislocation so add one cup unsurricular certainty, one cup contradicting statements, one cup of they're giving him the middle finger, one cup of, we don't know what he's going to do next because he's changed the stance so many times, one of every one of these companies into earning season is going to be guiding down. One cup of the market reacting to that and one cup of the intangible of trust waning. And very simply, ladies and gentlemen, on the week. Well, up next, the week in review. Today's action.

And what about next week? This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio. Show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So before I get into the numbers, what people are arguing back with me is about it having to be done. America's getting ripped off. let's say we give you that you surprise the world with massive tariffs on everything

can't help you with that so for the week the Dow was down 3,300 let me give you the final numbers 38314 that's let's call it 3,300 points or almost

most 8% on the week for the Dow. The S&P 500 on the week down 9%, 506 points to 5,774. The NASDAQ down 10%, 1735 to 15587. The NASDAQ 100 on the week down 9.77%, 1883 to 17397. the transports, I'm afraid to look, 10% on the week. The semiconductor index was down 16% this week. Damn, 16% this week.

And guess what they finally did? They finally hit my other motto on bearish markets. And it's a simple rule that I learned years ago. Eventually, they get them all. So you know what they crushed today? What did we tell you was holding up great? Insurance stocks because they were defensive. Waste management stocks because they were defensive.

The staples because they were defensive. That's food, beverage, tobacco, household products. Well, let me give you a little bit of that. Philip Morris down 11 today. geez, Hershey's 5. Geez, Colgate 5, Clorox 5, Pepsi 5. What did Coke do? Coke only 3 in the Dow.

Remember I told you they were holding up McDonald's? I don't know why. I'm down 18 today. On insurance, AJG down 25, Allstate, 18, Aeon, 18, Chubb 21, Progressive 29. Travelers in the Dow down 20. The waste management stocks were public services 13, waste management 11, and Berkshire Hathaway, which has been a huge port in the storm.

Berkshire Hathaway today, I got to find it. Down $36 bucks, they got them all today. What bounced today, as I said, some of the retail apparel. The home builders bounced today because interest rates are going down, but the home builders have been the bare market. By the way, they got to extend AutoZone O'Reilly Automotive, another defensive area. So, no stone unturned today. The Dow was down 2,231 points.

That is not a typo. The S&P was down 322, the NASDAQ 962, NASDAQ 11123, the SOX 263, the SOX 296, transports 461, And they got Germany, they got the United Kingdom, they got France, they got China, they got Japan, they got foreign markets, as they're all involved. Now, let me state for the, oh, gold was down two when some gold stocks got hit. I am rooting for him. I am so backing of him to get this right. He doesn't know me, wouldn't know me if he saw me. maybe you've seen me on TV once or twice, I wish I had his ear. This was a gargantuan mistake that

has to be rolled back. And what that means is he's got to, whatever he's got to do on saving face and get some sort of an understanding with these other countries and back away. Or I am letting you know, and in case you don't know, we've been right on all this, I am worried about the economy. The market is one thing, but that also is the economy. And in case you don't know, there's another part of this equation. And I think I mentioned it yesterday. It is the wealth effect. I really do believe that a lot of this, a lot of the economy in the years past, we know about the government and that Marxist Biden, but a lot of it was the wealth effect. We're losing the wealth effect. You're catching my drift. The wealth is tied to markets and real estate.

I can promise you real estate will suffer if this continues. also. And in the corporate world, if this continues, business is going to, I've already told you that flights from Canada down 70-some-odd percent. Canadians are pissed off at the U.S. right now. They were booing the national anthem at a hockey game. I have news for you. That's business. That's profits. That's jobs. That's economic. growth or lack of. My expectations also. The J. Powell of the Fed did a speech today and said, we want to see more, but we think we're

in good stead, something to that effect. We would not be surprised by a Fed rate cut this weekend, somewhat of an emergency cut. They won't use the word emergency. They come out with the language of. We feel that it's just proper at this point in time and not say another word. I'm not so sure that helps. We'll see. Let me repeat some things.

I want so much for this president to win. I am a big backer on what he did with the border. I am a big backer what he believes on tax cuts and less regulations. I am a big backer what he's done at the colleges. by threaten their asses about how anti-Semitic they are. I am a big backer how he is on crime. I am, except I did not agree with the J-6. But with the tariffs,

I have warned you for days and days and days, barking up the wrong tree. And forget my opinion, the market is yelling and screaming. Up next. What else we got for you? I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

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with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venturex card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining

RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. Hacking.

Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. More importantly, actually not more importantly, but last night I was flying into New York City on the JetBlue.

And lo and behold, Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets, is one row behind me. Didn't even know somebody had to tell me. And as you know, I am a psychotic New York Mets fan. But I do not want to disturb anybody. So I let me. But as I am walking, my wife says, because my wife has made up a, she's an artist, my wife.

and she's made up this big Mets collage type thing. By the way, I said to Lindor, I expect eight hits this weekend. Let's see, he's already one for two in the fourth inning with a double and a run. Look at that. So maybe my wife went up to him, showed him the picture that she made. He took her card. and then my wife had the nerve to ask for a picture, and he did. And I must tell you something I absolutely loved.

A bunch of people recognized him at LaGuardia, and they all went up to him. And do you know what he did with a smile? And by the way, his smile lights up a room, sat there and took pictures with everybody. who asked. And it was what time was 10 o'clock at night? I believe the night before he played a game in Miami,

obviously flew up to Orlando. I think his family may be there and he has a kid, just had a baby. I just love that. I love that. And I say that because you know what happened many years ago? I'm talking many years ago. I'm not going to say who,

but one of the Bonilla brothers, I was at the Inverary golf tournament And I saw a kid walk up to one of the Bonilla brothers and ask For an autograph And the Bonilla brother says I'm on my time Not now And the kid walked away with slump shoulders

I felt so bad But Francisco Lindor could not have been happy. And by the way, it wasn't a forced smile. It was natural. He enjoyed himself. And interesting enough, he was hoping people with their bags on the airplane. And somebody walked up to him and said, you must be somebody. He goes, I'm just a baseball player. And I think he met that. I think he just meant I'm just a baseball player. damn good one. Anyway, I just had to tell that story because I loved it. It's great to see people like that. Loved it. I'm already getting emails whether we could have a black Monday.

I think we had a Black Friday. I think we had a Black Thursday already. No, the Black Monday, I think was down 18, 19%. I don't predict those things. As I look at my screens, it is one big gigantic puke. And I'm getting asked all kinds of questions, so I'll answer them as a whole for all you to hear. What about China tariffing us?

Doesn't it hurt the Chinese people? Yes. Of course it does. Why would they do that then? because they have to show strength. That's all. They have to show strength. That's how it works. Bingo.

Why are financials down so much? Well, two reasons. Margin squeeze as yields come down. They make less when they lend. But number two and more importantly, business. it's all what are banks and brokerages

and investment bankers and private equity companies do business and his business head south they take a haircut Goldman Sachs down 40 bucks today and of course the brokers go down because

the amount of money they're managing is going down by the way black rock down 65 freaking dollars today. And of course transports if trade gets stuck FedEx

UPS the rails and truckers moving things less so they get hit. It's one hell of a one two punch we've already discussed the airlines but that's a gimmee less people going to fly and if less people going to fly that's

less they're going to be able to charge. And I can tell you the airlines have had their way with pricing, especially, I mean the pricing to Europe these days versus a few years ago. Wow. God bless them. Oil prices tank four bucks. The oil stocks get trashed today. Why? Demand for oil potentially goes, think about this.

If there's less flights from Canada, less usage of. oil and that's one little small sampling but notice we're just putting one plus one equals two that's all we try to do and we can go further into it but i think you get the hint now i was also asked why is bitcoin up to gary didn't you say is the nasdaq goes down bitcoin will go down doesn't have to be on a daily basis and bitcoin's been the bearish market am i surprised bitcoin was up today Yes, I am. Why would Netflix be down $61 today? Consumer discretionary.

What do you think people do when they're worried about the economy and they don't have tons of money? Or maybe they do, but they're still worried? They're going to tend to look at what can we get rid of? What don't we need? Maybe in Netflix. just a maybe. That's how markets work. They deal with answers to specific questions.

And all we try to do here is put the pieces of the puzzle together. They got China today. They got Japan. They got Europe. Everything came down today. I got to tell you, I had some transferred in Europe ETFs. and I've been holding them because they've been acting beautifully. One of them crumbled 8% that they break in the 50-day moving average, giving back the last eight weeks. That's how bad today was. I don't have a clue about next week.

I just know that the institutions selling today was not sated. Do not believe that this is computer. generated an algorithm BS. This is institutions in recognition of what is going on here and a very

stubborn and hard-nosed president that lit the fuse. That's it. That's it. I will give them all the praise where I believe should be given. But I have to tell you

and I mean this. I believe this is one of the biggest economic blunders in a very long time. Not necessary tariffs, but how it was done, and how many countries? They say it's back and forth. Well, Israel has no tariffs on us, but we still have 10% on them. What is with that? And the same goes for some other countries. How will they come out of this? I don't know, but the market has spoken loud and clear. Up next.

Any optimism from me. That's up next on Investor's Edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw-draft fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase.

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In The Wester's Edge. With Gary Kulpaw. Okay. Gary, the optimist. In every bare market we've ever had, I say the following. If you believe in the progress of people and their ingenuity and technological advancements and medical breakthroughs and hard work and sweat and toil, you've got to believe in the future. I say it every time.

By the way, some of that is not for me. It's from the great John Templeton. Go look up who he is if you do not know who he is. I will promise you going forward. You are going to find companies you have never heard of today. That'll be 10 baggers, if not more. New products are going to come out that you cannot believe. They are talking robotics right now.

I must tell you I'm not so sure I'm excited about that, but we'll see how it goes. But you must remember, did you hear of an Nvidia before a few years ago? Apple was on its ass before they came out with the iPod. The internet was just, I still remember when Margo Voisich came into my office, I believe it was the mid-90s and said, we're setting you up with inter-office email and I said, what's that? And why do I need it? Not making this up.

I remember it. When I started in this business, I had a quote track. It was a little handheld thing that gave me stock quotes 20 minutes late. The list goes on and on and on. Of course, there's the other side. obsolete. A lot of tech companies are gone because they were beaten by somebody else. A lot of retailers are gone because they screwed up. Kmart did not care about their business. So they went by by why Walmart flourished. And it's going to be our job to find that greatness as we move

forward. And we're going to find it in technology, medical, drugs, retail, restaurants, I can only imagine. Great things are ahead of us. But I must tell you, we have this other rule of thumb that we have said to you here is one of our mantras for anybody running this country. And it stands. Keep taxes low. Get onerous regulations out of our way.

and then get the hell out of our way. These tariffs are like putting a brick wall 50 feet high in front of us with only our fists to try and knock it down. That's a problem. The fact that they keep saying that it's a tax cut is horse crap. It's a gargantuan tax hike from an administration that says tax cuts are the elixir to a better economy. So they're making no sense. They're now in the way.

They are now what they say, what they say they are not. They are protectionists. They are not for free markets. They are for engineering markets, and I got news for you. That's bad news. There is nothing better than free markets out there. Nothing better. And this whole big story about trade deficits, oh, it's true.

But they have oversold it and made you believe it. We are bigger than all them. If we're 30 trillion of GDP and Japan is 4 trillion, Oh, we may just run a trade deficit. Are there bad players? Hell yeah. You address them one by one. You don't throw everything against the wall.

Why? Do I have to answer that question? And those that think, oh, the markets and they're rigged and stuff, the markets, I have always said, have ears. Have a mouth, have a voice. And sometimes because what they see, they start screaming. And remember, the markets are about people, very smart people that manage a hell of a lot of money successfully, making decisions on what is happening out there. And now when you have an administration that is interfering with those free markets in ways we have not.

seen in 85 years, make it maybe 95. Well, a little bit of hell broke loose this week. We are in hopes. They put egos aside. We are in hopes. They have a good understanding that something is up. I'm not so sure we're in hopes and that hope is high. because we know what type of personalities we are dealing with.

But I will tell you this, some of the greatest money is made at the end of the bare markets, the end of the bearish phases. And my job right now is to consistently and constantly look at what's holding up best. But right now, they're getting them all. that's what markets do as we stated I have absolutely no clue about

next week I do not know about Monday because I don't know what's going to happen on the weekend and frankly they don't shut up hopefully for better hoping for better days ahead have a great weekend

drive carefully when you get home do like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better. I promise, stay well, be well. Really appreciate you listening. Have a good night. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that's stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium

benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.