Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Horrible Week In Review

Episode Date: March 10, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A, thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's March 10th. It's Friday, which is good news. And we are emanating from San Miguel Yende, in the middle somewhere of Mexico, flew into Mexico City for three hours,

drove here three and a half hours afterwards, which really was four hours, had three hours sleep, I'm whooped, we're here, got my iPhone, got my Lucy Live app, and we are doing radio. Not so sure you want to hear from me, though,

but really, you do want to hear from me. It's simple. We've been warning you specifically and emphatically since Christmas of 2018 that we thought one man in his whims were turning into, or at least trying to, God of the markets. and we warned you that at the end of the road, ultimate outcomes would be disaster. We took no joy. We don't take any joy.

We don't take any joy in ripping Joe Biden and a $6.8 trillion. Moronic, imbecilic, Marxist, socialist, freaking budget, With 1.8 trillion of debt, and he's telling you how much we need it. So today, from the get-go, we're first going to give you what just happened in the last couple of days. And then we're going to walk you backwards, specifically and emphatically, how we got here. And what is the potential going forward?

But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. You should follow me on Twitter. I'm very charming and very sarcastic. You can just put my name in or press the button at garyk.com. You can email me, just be nice, and we'll also post it to all the podcast apps. The past two days market wrap is brought to by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. investment dash models.com. We're going to first walk back just a few days when we told you something was up. They're busting the heck out of the regional banks. They're busting the heck out of financials. What gives? What does the market know?

What does the market see? And let me just tell you the fast forward, the 16th largest bank in the country has taken over by our government. People with 250,000 and less will be made whole. After that, who knows? There's already calls for a government bailout. My guess is somebody a white knight comes to the rescue. It's just a guess.

I don't think the people that have left on the hook are going to get buried by this, but I can't be 100% sure. I wish I can give you guarantees. I can't. How did this come about? Well, I'm not going to give you the long version on how it's come about. I'm going to let you read that on the weekend. I'm just going to let you know it has come about because of the distortions that Mr.

Bubble Powell created. And what happens is when the 16th largest bank in the country goes out, the guessing games begin. Is there anybody else? Who may it be? If the 16th largest bank goes out, what about the small guys? And you get a lot of shoot first, ask questions later. And just remember what a bank is. Are you listening carefully?

A bank is only as good or in business as the depositors. If they don't have depositors, they ain't anything. And if they have more OZs than deposits, they're underwater. So let's just remember that. Your job is to spend some time this weekend and educate yourself what happened. But it all goes back. to this numskull named Jay Powell, who's still running the joint. As I have said to you, it is like going to a doctor for your broken right arm and he puts a cast on your left arm.

This man is a nightmare of epic proportions and he doesn't get, he's Teflon because he's not elected. So the blame is put on the people that have been elected because it's all political. This is 100% this guy. And the lemmings that followed. So work back with me, Christmas Eve, 2018. We had a half day in the market. The market was crashing, getting smoked. He was raising rates.

They had promised to raise rates four more times in 2019. Christmas Evey sends out one of his minions to state, and he came out and said, the Fed can stop raising rates now. The market immediately bottomed and rallied up strong, and then it hit a wall. What do they do? They announce they're going to lower rates. They started to address the markets. not the economy, and the markets rallied again, but then they stopped again and headed down.

Guess what they did again? They announced the lowering of rates again, and then they lowered rates, and the market hit a wall again, and then the third time. And finally, this moron, this imbecile, this man who decided to play God with markets, announces in October of 2019, he's going to actually print money. even though we had a GDP around three unemployment in the threes Ben Bernanke printed money when all hell

was breaking loose in 08 oh by the way Bernanke sucked also he's ground zero upon that we you know we said to you on this radio show buy the hell out of the market and guess what markets did starting in October they ramped until COVID hit and COVID hit

and Jay Powell played God even more what do I mean what does human nature tell us well if you do something and it works repeat it right

if you're doing something and it works repeat it don't worry if it sucks long term repeat it because you don't know if it's going to suck long term So we announced these taking rates to 0%. And then he announced a big money printing. But markets kept going lower.

What did he do? He announced even bigger money printing. But COVID hit and we were shut down. He announces then a monster, a gargantuan, supersonic, super-sized money printing, up to $9 trillion. dollars, markets stopped going down, they started rallying. He got the European idiot to do the same. And markets rallied. Hey, it just took nine trillion bucks. And markets kept rallying.

And markets kept rallying. But we said to you at that time, oh, we're in big trouble. But why wasn't Wall Street saying that? Why wasn't Wall Street thinking about the outcome of one man in his whims, rigging and manipulating markets, and screwing savers. Imagine you're a saver. You're getting zero on your money. Up next. The next chapter. This is the one only Investor's Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be,

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The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast.

might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. While we're saying, saying to you we're worried longer term of the outcome of zero percent nine trillion of printed money unimaginable amounts we're worried not because markets were going up because what was going up but why weren't and why wasn't wall street worried because it's simple wall street doesn't care as long as markets cooperate. It happened in 07 and 08.

We did the same thing. We said the same thing. We were yelling and screaming about the housing market and everything. They didn't care because they were leveraging mortgage-backed securities and life was great and they were making all kinds of money until they blew up. And then, of course, not one of them was indicted. So what do they care? Not one of them went to jail.

So what do they care? They all committed fraud. What do they care? What do they care? They got away with it. In fact, a couple of CEOs that committed fraud got promoted. And it's still in business. So what did they care? And if it happened again, what do they care?

They didn't. And who ended up paying for it? The taxpayer. What did we get out of it? Nothing. What did they get out of it in Wall Street? Billillions of dollars. So fast forward.

You got Jay Powell, zero percent interest rates. Free money, printing $9 trillion. Wall Street says nothing. We're telling you, go read the book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions in the Madness of Crowds. Bubbles. And then the bubbles started hitting. Crypto this, crypto that. They come out with coins, 23,000 of them.

Dennis Rodman comes out with a pot coin. That was the funny one. All kinds of names. I'm trying to tell you, be careful. I'm getting people cursing me out. Crypto for life. Crypto for this. You're a wuss.

You wouldn't believe some of the words they used. And then the meme stocks and the Robin Hood and the Coinbase and the ridiculous price IPOs. And the NFTs. And this, that, and the other thing. and we're warning you and we're warning you and we're telling you

don't pay $20 for a $1 bill and people still didn't want to listen why? Human nature what do we tell you about human nature if it's working, keep doing it so people would buy anything at any price I told you about the story

I had a 75 year old lady call me up at my office didn't even know her she saw me on TV GameStop had just gone from four to 250,300. It was in that final day of the monster move before the party was over. The stock had just gone from 20 to 300 in like four days. And the 75-year-old woman asked me whether she should buy GameStop. And I asked her, do you know where the stock was three days ago?

She said, she thinks so. And I asked her, what was the price? She said, wasn't like 30 or 40 bucks? I said it's 20 and you want to pay 300 for it? She says, what if it goes to a thousand? I don't want to miss it. I said, ma'am, I can't argue with you. Human nature. Greed. She didn't care that she was paying $100 for a $1 bill.

She was just hoping that $100 would turn into $110, the greater full theory. And it happened with marijuana stocks. The meme stocks. Bedbath and Beyond just went to 30 bucks just three or four months ago. And people knew they were about to file bankruptcy or getting close. They didn't care. Why? The greater full theory.

And we've been warning you all long. And this is all an outcome of easy money, greed, the extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds. And we're warning you and we're warning you and we're warning you. And nobody's listening. until they blow up, until it's over. And the Miami coin, where 5,000 people would show up at a convention center

to tout and talk and laugh and frolic and drink about crypto goes from down 98%. And even after it was down 98%, they held another convention with all the scummy, sleazy, slimy, taunt artists who were buried themselves trying to talk people, to keep buying crypto so they can get bailed out.

And a ton of people still showed up. Do you know why they showed up? Human nature. You know what the other part of human nature is? Hope! So all the bubbles burst. Crushed, destroyed. Some things down 100%.

Things called stable coins. What the hell is a stable coin? Went to zero overnight. Overnight. I got an email from somebody that lost 400,000 overnight. who could he sue i didn't give him good news on who we could sue there was no money i felt terrible for him but then you have to ask what are these people thinking what are these people thinking coins this is all from powell he didn't cause the coin he set the conditions mean stocks what the

hell is that he set the conditions robin hood was able to come public in a ridiculous valuation, Coinbase, be able to come out ridiculous valuations. Why? They came out to trade bubbles. And what's going to happen to those stocks when the bubbles go by-bye? They crash too. So they all crashed. And then we told you, you know, what another outcome is, the criminals will show up. And we have this yachts, this putz, this moron, this schmuck, this piece of crap. Down the in the Bahamas. I didn't do anything. We now find out billions of dollars. Billions. Billions. So that happened too. All the outcome of easy money. But then there's the other outcome.

What did we say to you? What question did we ask? What happens when the zero percent interest rate monster nothing personal j powell what happens when he no longer has control of interest rates and they shoot the middle finger back at him which means us what happens what is the outcome of the distortions that he created imagine one man controlling our bond market are you smoking crack but nobody complained. We did, and nobody listened. Why did nobody complain? Free money!

Mortgages at 3% free money! Market skyrocketing. Crazy stuff skyrocketing. That's why. Up next, the downside. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

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going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum.

highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to it. Okay. So we're talking about the meme stocks and all this and how people react in human nature until all hell breaks loose. But we've said to you time and time again, what is the outcome of distortions? What is the outcome of printing $9 trillion into the system? It was simple. It was easy for us. There is a simplistic definition of the cause of inflation. Too much money chasing too few goods. Go look it up.

It's a universal time tested. Yet here's this guy printing $9 trillion keeping rates at zero. And nobody's yelling and screaming inflation except us. So inflation hits. and there's moron, nothing personal there's no inflation Janet Yellen

another adult from the central bank who's now the Treasury Secretary talk about a quack there's no inflation and then inflation starts to bubble up and there's still no inflation don't worry everything's A-OK

and then inflation starts to hit more it's transitory That's what they told us. Joe Biden, he don't know what the hell he's doing. He don't even know what day it is. It's transitory. Nothing to worry about here. But of course, Joe Biden doesn't know anything about the economy.

He's a doofus. He's a political lifer. He just has to believe Powell and yelling. And then inflation really starts the spike. For six months, they're telling us it's transitory. and then finally it hits hard and what do we hear it's the Putin price hike

these lying sacks of crap in D.C. lie to you about what they was saying for six, seven months that they told you was transitory but now was the Putin price hike even though Putin didn't attack till six months later so they got that all wrong

and then the real market the bond market you know not Jay Powell the bond market started biting back you see as the economy gained its footing and we got back to business

he couldn't print money anymore he had a stop as soon as he stopped guess what interest rates started to go higher why would they go higher to account for the inflation that's how the real world works

and they kept going higher and J. Powell stood there in a coma and they kept going higher and he stood there in a coma which led to the bare market in stocks and stood there and then finally his rates started to really skyrocket without him

he had no choice he raised rates a quarter of point whoopee and then over time he had to fast track it forced to do what he didn't want to do raise rates and raise rates

and raise rates but just plain catch up to the real market remember he's not the real market the real market is the real market that is the trading investing and speculating

of traders investors and speculators at a certain time and a certain price at a certain size not Jay Powell and by the way those people take risks

you think Jay Powell's taking any risk no he's conjuring up out of in air. So rates started to skyrocket themselves and he had a play catch up. And now he's four and a half percent. By the way, yields back down big today in a flight to quality because of what's happened with the bank. Remember, human nature. When people get scared, what do they do? They run to safety. Human nature. So they bought the hell out of 10-year bonds today at 3.9 percent, took them down to 3.7 and change, which is a huge move down, flight to quality. Now, normally, that would save the market.

Not anymore. You know why? Because the market has other fish to fry now, and that is the 16th largest bank going under. And the worry, is there anybody next? Remember, it started with one back in 08, and no way we're saying there's more to come. We're just letting you know this doofus created the conditions. And when you go look and read how this bank went out, you will see it was because every asset price,

every economic statistic, every data point, every business, large, small, medium, and every investor made decisions based, on zero percent interest rates and nine trillion and did not account for the what if or the when when yields would spike again given jay powell the middle finger and because we're the victims us this bank got caught and the worry is who else is caught who else is caught who else is caught you know people can make a lot more money on their money, on their deposits now. So what do you think they're going to do?

They're going to get out of small and go into bigger. And what happens if the small loses the money? Guess what happens? Something like that happened to this big bank. And there are other things that going on. But what happened with this bank today is just another outcome of distorted yield. and the printing of money. We warned you starting Christmas of 18,

but the big one, the big matzabal, was when COVID hit, and he decided to go $9 trillion and 0% rates. So now all those people that made all these decisions, every business, all these decisions based on 0% rate, now have to do it based on

five, six, seven, and maybe even higher. You know what kind of change that is for the economy? You know what kind of losses bond funds had in the last 15 months? This is the outcome of one man and his whims. Nothing more, nothing less. But he's Teflon because he's unelected. He's appointed.

If he was elected, he would be skewered. But no, let's blame this person, that person, the other person. And the other part of the equation, he's still in his job, this gargantuan failure? He's the biggest failure in history. In history. I put him past Hoover. Why? The other part of the equation, go look at our debt and deficits.

How do you think you get up there? You enable it by easy money. And you know what happens now? The amount our government is going to pay on interest because the real world is now happening, real yields are now happening, it's going to be over a trillion bucks soon a year. Imagine a trillion of our tax dollars each year

going to interest, not to the elderly, the downtrodden, the infirm, children that need food, the streets, the roads, the bridges, to interest ladies and gentlemen i give you ben burnanke janet yellen jay powell bush obama trump biden and all the politicians that signed off on this but we can go all the way back to biden when he started in dc our whole federal debt was 500 billion he's going to take us to 50 trillion and you wonder why we're getting some dislocations here now the only thing we'd

don't know, and I do not know, is there anybody next? Who would be next? I don't know. But I said to Neil Cavuto today, on TV from Mexico, watch stock prices. They'll tell you a lot. Up's next. Today's market. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Ingestors Edge.

With Gary Culpa. So, uh, we thank Adam for doing the show yesterday. Usually I listen to it. I haven't been able to because I just whooped today. I'll listen to it over the weekend. But today the Dow was down another 345, NASDAQ 199, NASDAQ 10165, S&P down 56, SOX down 56, transports 360, advanced declines, terrible, up down, volume, terrible.

You ready for this? 749 new yearly lows on the New York and Nicarious. NASDAQ. New yearly highs, I don't think there are any, except maybe a couple of crappy SPACs. What can I tell you? What can I tell you? What does the market have going for it here? Well, I can tell you the NASDAQ. Let me see if I got this right before I say anything. Well, the NASDAQ 100 finished just below the 50-day moving average, but the NASDAQ is much worse, if I'm correct. Yeah, there's nothing good I can really tell you. And today yields really came down a lot and the market didn't care.

Where it stops, I don't know, how bad it gets, I don't know. But leave no doubt the last two days were the outcome of shoot first, ask questions later. And by the way, yesterday, the Dow hit 32-999. It closed today at 3190. 31, 909, that's 1,080 points. And you're off the lows today, 31783. You're actually down today almost 500. You know what we've done.

You know where we stand. We are good in the recognition of trouble. And Wednesday, really, you know, the regional banks had me with the what's up here. By the way, we had a good job number today. Market couldn't give a crap. So I've yet to do scans, but I'm pretty sure I know what I'm going to find.

The positive side is it's easiest to isolate strength with the market's very weak. So I'm going to be able to isolate the great strength this weekend, but you know the next line. If this really worsens, eventually they get them all. to an extent. And I will tell you, they didn't play Futsi the last couple of days.

On the week, I'm going to guess we're down 4%. Let's see. On the week, the Dow was down 4.4%. The S&P was down 4.5%. The NASDAQ was down 4.7%. There's your week. I will tell you. you right now the market's not going to care about much except who's next as I said before

the break watch the stocks the reason why this bank went under the stock price they were announcing a secondary when the stock was over 200 it went out to 30 bucks they couldn't do it anymore that was it and as we said the banks are as big or as good as the depositors and one of the main tech people was telling everybody get your money out. And that's, that's the end of it. So we'll do a deep dive this weekend to see about anything else. Janet Yellen today, gee, I really feel better about this now, says it's only this. Not to worry.

But she was one of the yutzes back in 08 that said subprime was contained and housing prices don't get to go down and she was completely wrong on inflation so she's the doctor that put the cast on your left arm when you had a broken right arm so what do I care about what she says not a lick now the real question is how does this move central banks j pal was about to raise rates a half point in three weeks. I'm going to guess it's a quarter point now and maybe none. Why? This. But does that help? You know what jump the shark means? Go look it up. It's from happy days. We have possibly could be maybe jumping the shark of forget about the yields now. Remember, we said correlations will only last as long as they want to last.

And the market may have to start looking at liquidity. The pipes of this country. Banks. The 16th largest. Holy crap. We'll keep our fingers crossed. But our motto remains. We have never been more positive and optimistic on most of us.

I've never been more pessimistic on them. And let me be clear, they have caused this. And whatever's to come, they have caused. And since we don't have time not going to do it today, but on Monday, well, you get Adam on Monday, I'll be traveling on Tuesday. Oh, we'll be talking about Joe Biden's Marxist control freak budget that fortunately the Republicans now own the house. It'll never pass.

But it just tells you we were right about this man. He is a control freak, gargantuan government Marxist. And there is no number too high to extract from you and I under the guise of he's smarter than all of us. And your lot in life will never get to where it should without him, which is a bunch of bull crap. Just remember, he spent four years. years in between Obama and becoming president influence peddling with his son. Go read up about the big guy. Remember, I'm Mr. Logic.

That one's easy to figure out. So don't have much good to tell you. Just enjoy your weekend. Do the best you can. Drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, make sure you hug your family, hug your children. And again, Monday, we're traveling. Adam will be doing the show.

We'll be back on Tuesday. You take care. And we'll be writing this up on garyk.com this weekend. Check it out. Bye, bye, all. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to garyk.com. That's garykay.com.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details.