Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Hot Summer Week In Review [07.11.2025]

Episode Date: July 11, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. it is 7-11, 2025. It's Friday.

The weekend is here. One of the rare weekends, I am not traveling. I am sitting here in hot as heck, central Florida. I'll be back up in the Northeast on Thursday to see the dad. He's being taken care of by

my good brother, Steve, as well as the... We have a 24-hour help. 12-hour shifts, two wonderful nurses that cost a hell of a lot of money, but it's worth every darn penny. Hope you having a good day. Hope you have a good weekend. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you.

The markets, the economy, your job, your industry, tariffs, debt, deficits. We do it with no ulterior motive. No agenda, no bias. The only agenda is you and I and our future as they continue to destroy the future. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on X. I'm not saying Twitter anymore. I'll just say X.

And if you don't follow me on X, you should. And if you like to email me, you just got to be nice. Why? Because we're always going to be nice back, unless you like Hamas. So, the outcome today, first off, we had said to you yesterday that Bitcoin had broken out of range. It was up another, what, I'll give you the number here. I-B-I-T, the E-T-F, was up 4.2% today. So you have a confirmed breakout, of course, doesn't mean it has to work, but so far it has. I also want to mention Silver, broke out again today.

Broke out first early June. Went up for a few days, made a right turn for about four weeks, broke out again today. You can go look at SLV, and you can see. That chart. I want to mention gold back above the 50-day moving average. That's now in a one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve weeks of trading range. Remember, about seven, eight weeks ago, we said to you, we thought it was about to go range-bound. So those are just a few areas, gold, silver, bitcoin. That's the story. Well, kind of the sort of today because we had a little bit of an opposite today. Recently we have been telling

you how strong the advanced decline figures have been, the broad market, how strong it has been. Today we got the opposite. I'll start by saying on the New York, 1229 stocks were up, a whopping 2894 were down. On the NASDAQ even worse, 1152 up. 31, 352 up. 31,000. 3,000. 1,000. 1,000. 195 down. Interesting enough, those bad advanced declines on the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ was only down 45. And that was because Google up two and a half and video was up one. Amazon was up almost three. And you know how much influence they have on them. The Dow was down 280 today. S&P down 20. Transport's down 107. In the Dow today, let's see what I can find. That is of note. and then we're going to talk about the little cause and effect with the word maybe behind it.

In the doubt today, Amgen down 5. Amgen's been, I guess, stuck in the mud. American Express pulled back 5 in change. It's been on the strong side with other financial. Salesforce.com down 6, very weak software stock. Goldman pulled back 4, Home Depot 3, IBM almost 4. Visa Down 8

Sherwin Williams down 6 And by the way Anything's possible You know that right But we deal with what we see And the patterns Looking at a photo album For familiar faces

You know what the worst looking charts are right now MasterCard and Visa Big Top potential Potential We do note there's some things going on fundamentally outside of their control that may be doing the trick. Anyway, just letting you know. So weekday, we have yet to do our full scans,

but the broad market pulled back a little bit today. Nothing I would say to get twisted over. The small caps were down, normal little pullback so far. Same for the midcaps. Again, just a, you're saying, somewhat of a rough day, notwithstanding, some of the mega-cap beta was in shape. So let's add a few other things first. Yesterday we said to you we saw some software names really getting hit,

maybe even topping out good. Service now down another 30 bucks today. HubSpot, 30 bucks today. MDB, $7 today. CVLT down five bucks today, MNDY 16 bucks today, Duolingo, 10 bucks today, workday, six bucks today, checkpoint software, six bucks today. Software's getting beaten up here. Microsoft is the Grand Poo-Bov software that was still up again today.

Just letting you know. Other areas to avoid, as we have told you, insurance looks to be an avoid, the managed care looks to be in avoid, though United Health bounce today, but others got hit pretty hard. Other avoids, well, oils are better. Not bullish, but definitely better. And I believe a few days ago I said, I don't know if there are voids anymore.

And after that, just a smattering, a smattering, which takes me to know, oh, Argentina avoid. It's just an area I follow and it was in a bull market. Now it's bearish. Not that you care. Which takes me to definitions. It takes me to cause and effect. You see, last night futures were flat.

And then the president announced a 35% tariff on Canada. and immediately futures dropped cause and effect. So let's put the pieces of the puzzle together and then I'm going to some definitions. In just the past few days, 50% on Brazil. Not because of trade, but because the president is mad at the Brazilian government for being mean at their ex-president. my opinion sheer insanity to have major tariffs on a country because how they treat an ex-president. We'll get to the fine print in a minute.

Now Canada 35% where the president is saying there's a fentanyl issue. Even though the fentanyl numbers have, I'm just reading this, have dropped markedly. in the recent past. He went on to tariff Bangladesh, Kazakhstan. They don't, not to put these areas down, but they really don't matter that much. Japan is on there also. But we are being told they're looking at exemptions. So a lot of this may not be meaningful. The president has been made fun of with this taco acronym about he keeps threatening tariffs and then gets rid of them and then does the exemptions. We're not going to make fun of him, but we are going to take him on because a couple of other things happened today. and actually yesterday that I think is of note,

I'd like to give you the rest of the story on tariffs that all of a sudden so many conservative free market people love so much. Today it was announced that for the month of June we had a surplus because of how much they collected in tariffs. This is true. There was a surplus. And you know how much we hate deficits. So there was a surplus.

There's only one problem. We'll explain the minute. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show. Investors' Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial

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A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat, and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.

We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CISO, VBS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer dark vision, headaches and

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On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. So, hey, welcome once again to Investors Edge. It's being talked about, hey, we had a surplus because we got all these tariffs in. Terrific. I'm not going to argue that. They got a surplus because they taxed American companies who, turn some of them charged higher prices to the consumer it was a tax hike of whatever the number was that made it a surplus well Gary here's a great

question for you well if they do that every month that 200 billion dollars a month deficit which is what we have now we're gonna have a deficit of two point something trillion this year. Well, if they bring in that $200 billion in tariffs every month, then we're going to have no deficit this year. Interesting. Well, that's correct. There's only one problem. That would mean we ended up with a $2.something trillion tax hike, a gargantuan tax hike. one year. Worse than Kamala Harris's proposals, which

has me posing the question, what is that going to mean? You're taking $2 trillion out of the economy and into the government coffers. It's just a tax hike.

And of course, potentially, a hike on the consumer. Well, I think there's a Damn good chance. Damn good chance. There's your economic growth. So if they continue along these lines,

I'm rooting for them. If we can get just 2% GDP in the next year while bringing in $200 billion of new taxes, which go directly to the Treasury, just so you know. When Walmart buys a crap load of stuff from Brazil or China or Canada and pays these tariffs, goes directly to the Treasury. Thus, as I just stated to you, we have a surplus for the month of June.

I would be thrilled to report to you in a year. We have 2% GDP and we kept balanced budgets because of it and the new tariffs slagreys. taxes. I'm rooting for them. I'm worried, but I'm rooting for them. I do not want you to forget that tariffs are just a tax. That's all it is. Now, what are the potential negatives? Well, if it gets to be too much, what's to say that these companies stop buying these things? If they're paying too much and they're losing money, why even do that business? There's all kinds of ways of looking at this, but when all is said and done, the only thing I will care about is outcome,

and I am rooting for them. I completely disagree with this. I am rooting for them. And I will be glad to applaud them if it works. But those that are saying, oh, look, we brought into, $200 billion. No, you taxed us $200 billion. The market cause and effect, at least for today, doesn't have to get worse, but at least for today there was a cause and effect on the announcement of Canada. And what you can do is go look, what are our imports from Brazil and

Canada, and you will see, because as of now, we are being told 50% from Brazil, 35% from Canada. That means anything that comes in here, boom, the importer, us, not them, will pay 50% higher. If they're paying $10 for something, they now pay $15 and that extra five goes into the treasury. I think there will be repercussions. I believe in economics 101. So that's a little bit of a cause and effect on what's going on, what's next. We'll keep reporting to you.

Let me repeat, we are rooting for the success of what they're trying to do. We really are, because you know, we are big time. we are big time deficit hawks and if this works cool for the month of June cool is the economy heading south in a big way

I ain't seeing it so for the month of June cool and that's your story of cause and effect on tariffs so rough day today I won't go any further than that. There are areas to avoid.

There are stocks to avoid. And I will tell you my left screen of a lot of technology names that are not mega-cap, got smoked today. And as I said, in software, a lot of breaking down at this juncture here. That is definitely one area I'd be very careful about if you're not. Name is not Microsoft. Microsoft remains strong. And that's a little bit of the story today. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, oh, and oil.

And oil prices have been ticking up. It was up a couple of bucks today, oil. We don't want to see that happen. And I have to make note, 10-year yield, 4.423, up 0.77 today. that's not good news. We do not want oil prices going higher. We do not want the 10-year yield going higher. That would be big time negative. That's the cost of capital and the cost of energy. That is a one-two punch. No economy will be happy with. Thinks that's what went on today a little bit with the market also. Up next, the president wants whoever's running the Fed to lower rates from

four and a quarter to one. Repercussions. That's up next on Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria. Maria Matola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach

ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast.

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He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And what once again to invest. So it seems like I have to continue to do some explaining because on certain things the president of the United States does not have a clue on the meaning of certain things.

As you know, he says tariffs are paid by other countries doesn't have a clue. Or he's lying. But the next part, he says, he says. he wants the Federal Reserve, our Federal Reserve, to take the Fed funds rate, the Fed funds rate, down to 1%. Right now, their target for the Fed funds is 4.5 to 4.5. The 10-year yield is now up to 4.423. In case you don't know, the federal funds rates is just a target interest rate that the Fed puts at which banks borrow and lend to each other. That's what it is. That's what it is.

It also tends to give off where money market rates. should be around. These are short-term rates. We're doing a little bond market definition. In case you don't know, there are different years of bonds, 30, 20, 10, 5, and of course you can buy them at any time in between. And all a bond is, you are lending money to somebody who pays you a yield based on market conditions. If it's a corporation, a more risky corporation will have to pay you a higher yield to account for some of that risk.

Companies like, let's say, a Home Depot will pay less because they are Home Depot. I'm giving you an example. What the Fed does has everything to do with the short term, does not have anything to do or very little to do with the long term. And what we always talk to you about is the 10-year yield and why? Because your mortgages and so many of your loans are attached or near that number. typically mortgages will be two two and a half percentage points above the 10 year yield in case you don't know back in the late 70s

early 80s we had a crazy bond market where yields were like 15 16 percent not for long they came down that was because of massive inflation when j powell was printing money out of thin air and you know I was blasting him for that he took fake money and bought the hell out of that long bond market to press interest rates down that's how you got your 3% mortgages horrible move on his part terrible move doffess here is the problem and this is what the president has no clue about what did we just go through inflation inflation reared its ugly head. How did that feel?

Good for you? Why did we have inflation? Well, go look up a term for what causes inflation. Too much money chasing too few goods. Well, since Powell printed to $9 trillion, there's your inflation. Easy money over easy money creates inflation. if the 10-year yield the free market this is the free market of investors traders speculators and a lot of smart money if the free market is saying the 10-year yield has been going up and it's now 4.423 but the president wants

fed funds to be at one two things are going to happen one one that 10 year yield is going to go higher while the Fed fund rates go lower. Why? Number two? Because the stoking of inflation. And once that gets out of hand, it is tough to put that genie back in the bottle. What did I say to you during all of Powell's stupidity?

He is not listening to the markets. and if he continues to not listen to the markets, there's going to be trouble. If President Trump took over the Fed and took Fed funds rates to 1%, I am letting you know there's every chance the 10-year yield will go to 6% and 7% because of that. And I can promise you, the 10-year yield is the Falay Mignon. The Fed funds rate is spam. The 10-year yield will define the economy. the Fed funds will not.

And if the 10-year yield goes to 6, 7 percent, we go into contraction and all heck breaks loose in a very expensive stock market. That's all. And this president doesn't understand it. And this supposed genius of a Treasury Secretary either is BSing or just has to be quiet because of the president.

It would be nuts to lower the Fed funds rates to 1% when the real yields, the free market, which obviously this president does not believe in, is screaming otherwise. And that's what I was saying about Powell for a long while. The market was screaming at him and wasn't listening. And I got news via. The market's screaming at Trump now. And he's not listening. The good news is with President Trump, when he crashed the market because of tariffs, he did listen to the market and got rid of them.

But now it's obvious he hasn't learned too much of a lesson because he's gone back to them. The good news is I'm not hearing any 145% tariffs like he had on China. And the good news is there's a lot of exemptions. So just letting you know, the president of the president, United States does not understand the repercussions of screwing with free markets. The Fed funds rate should be within a half point of where the 10-year yield is. It's at 4.423. J-Powels at 4.5. He can go to 4.4.4. maybe even three and three quarters four but that should be it stay in line with the market why the market is so much smarter at all so i'm keeping fingers crossed once he gets rid of powell

he doesn't put in somebody that has his lips attached to his butt and does that because watch what happens you'll get an initial burst in the market because of the easy money and then plus up. And do not forget, I nailed it all for you under Powell, under the same circumstances of not listening to the market. I was the one before anybody telling you inflation was coming. It was a gimmy. I was telling you he was going to have to play catch-up. Then everybody else became a genius after the fact. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,

the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.

And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication.

And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation plus some fast. Fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and Eyeheart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dim or dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. Cash flow crunch. OnDec's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat, with flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently.

Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lend. approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. In the Gester's Edge with Gary Culper. And before I get your emails, don't forget, we couldn't care less who's in the White House. We want good policy.

that's all Joe Biden got an F minus besides being a corrupt piece of crap Donald Trump jury's still out he's in his what six seven month

gets an A plus plus plus on the border he gets an A plus on his verbiage on crime on Jewish students on those ass clowns running the colleges. A plus pluses. But when not doing right, you hear from us.

And he ain't doing right on the economy, kids. I'm rooting for them. Tariffs are not good. I hope I'm wrong. And I absolutely mean that. Small tariffs, get away with. You can't do 50% on Brazil. You can't do 35%. percent on Canada. By the way, Canada's our number one trading partner, I believe? Pretty sure of that. So, let's see. Next week, well, first off, let's repeat a few things. Bitcoin broke out.

Let's see if it sticks, and it's a good-looking breakout. Silver broke out two, three weeks ago. Did a further breakout. Gold is in 12 weeks of trading range, but after a rally, and it looks like a bullish trading range, gold miners are basically the same. They look better, and they pull back some. Overall, the broad market was down today,

but look pretty darn good, and maybe we'll pull back a little bit more, but overall looks pretty good, and sometimes you need to pull back. My issue with a lot of the broader market is, I don't know if there's earnings power in some of these companies, when I look at let me give you a little example here

how about Caterpillar Caterpillar's had a strong move back to the old highs with 24% drop in earnings and a 10% drop in sales Deer near old highs 22% drop in earnings 16% drop in sales and by the way four quarters of big drops

in earnings and sales What does that mean? Well if the earnings and savings and sales don't improve, it's going to leave with very high valuations. And stocks that hit a wall. And those are just two in what I call the economically sensitive areas of the market. And may I add also, if interest rates go higher, you know how we told you, oh, look at the home builders and those areas much, much better. and they are much, much better. I can promise you if the 10-year yield hedge towards 5%,

I'm not so sure they're going to stay much, much better. So that'll be something to watch also. Do not forget also that valuations, and it's pretty easy to put a valuation on the S&P. You take the 500 stocks, you total up their earnings, simple as that. add them all up and you give it a multiple. I saw somebody on TV yesterday saying 6,600 this year and 7200 next year.

On $285 of earnings, well, the $6,600, that would be a 24 times S&P on that number they actually gave. And the market throughout history is only 17. So that's what we would call expensive. And that's to be watched. And the Buffett indicator. They got this Buffett indicator that's record highs. Warren Buffett has this indicator that it goes above this certain number. And I believe it's doubled above that certain number.

So we're watching valuations also, though, as you know, the one thing we will watch first. Pretty simplistic. What are the stocks doing? But just letting you know, these are things we have in our file manager. And if anything changes, we'll let you know. And if we get great growth, that'll take down the valuations. Great growth. That'll take down the valuations.

I do want to report to you, Florida. homes for sale in Florida and the biggest markets have the inventory has risen to the highest in ages just letting you know Tampa St. Petersburg active listing jumped 28% in June

from last year looking at that Orlando Kissimmee Sanford 34% from last year we're watching Sarasota Bradenton 25% and we're also seeing a lot of pendings go by the wayside not getting sold

and we're also seeing listings just go bye-bye people are putting up their homes they're not selling for nine months after lowering prices twice they're just taking it off for sale so it is definitively becoming more and more buyer's market

at least in Florida, I know other areas also. The good news is I'm not seeing anything in the way of real dislocations yet. And let's hope that doesn't occur because people tie their wealth to their homes. And by the way, this is going on while people still have 3% mortgages and don't want to get rid of them to buy a house with 7%. And that's that. Okay. That all said, you have a great weekend. Drive carefully when you get home, do like we do.

Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will, be well, better days ahead because of us. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

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