Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE HUGE REVERSAL STILL WORKING!
Episode Date: October 24, 2022Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colpom, your host day.
Thanks to being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is, you know, October 24th, 2022.
It's Monday.
Hope you're having a good day.
Hope you had a great weekend.
I got to just mention right out of the get-go because I mentioned on Friday.
I took an airline called Silver Airways from Orlando to Pensacola back.
And then I had a drive to Destin, Florida, about 90 minutes from Pensacola.
It was the only way to get there.
I didn't feel like driving and usually stop in between.
It would have taken me eight hours each way.
And I was coming back on a Sunday and I didn't want to drive eight hours, you know.
Right?
anyway I have nothing but compliments for this airline they don't fly jets I don't know if you call
a jet they're propellers ATR something or other and it was terrific and you know you complain a lot
about airlines right so if they're listening a big shout out
I just thought from start to finish.
Just, what are you, ATR. 7200, it's called?
I don't even know how it works.
It's just propellers.
I don't even know if there's engine.
It beats the heck out of me anyway.
Terrific.
Terrific.
They should give themselves a hand because,
and not just getting there on time back and forth.
And it was good weather and stuff,
but just people are very nice, serious about,
about their job and just went very well and had a wedding to go to and this is how it worked
get their Saturday drive an hour and a half wedding an hour later the wedding whatever and then
my kids are there and they have to fly they don't really only flight back was at six in the
morning so they had to leave for the Destin Airport which is closer like a half hour
and their driver calls them up to say his alarm didn't work.
And this is a business, this driver.
And guess who they called?
Little old me.
So I was up at 4.30 in the morning, driving them to the airport, got them there on time.
And of course, you get back and you want to fall back asleep and you can't fall back
asleep.
So that was my Sunday.
But more importantly, the Giants won.
They're six and one.
Happy days.
I'm not, you know, Jets fan, when name is.
played I was a fan, but since I couldn't care less. They're kicking butt. Yankees are gone.
Oh, my goodness gracious. They couldn't put the ball to bat. Bat to the ball. And they got ahead
finally in a game. They still couldn't win. What can you do? It's the hot team and the hot
pitching that usually does the trick. So it's, who is it, Philadelphia against Houston,
which means I don't give a crap. But congratulations to those teams. All right. That is my weekend update.
and my sports update for this week.
Did I say the Giants are six and one?
Okay.
And then, of course, there's the weekend update
before we even get into the market of,
as you know, we're heading to the election.
And as you know, I can't stand either party, any of them.
I mean, pretty much any of them.
But I save myself for the Marxists on the left.
And we use the term Marxism as not a,
nasty word, but it's exactly what we believe.
They are control freaks with rules, regulations, fines, mandates, taxes, and the giveaways.
You know, you play with the fingers here.
I'm going to give it to you, here, just vote for us type of thing.
In particular, the bullcrap spewed by an interview I saw with Nancy Pelosi yesterday.
first off these people are doing the interviewing suck they're not doing their job it's boilerplate
crap no harsh follow-ups and think about it Nancy Pelosi's been in DC for 26 trillion of our 31 trillion
of debt Joe Biden has been there for 30 and a half trillion of our 31 trillion of debt yet Joe Biden does an
interview and talks about lowering the deficits and do you think the interviewer said
but president Biden you've been in DC since uh 1487 and our debt then was at 500 billion
we're now 31 trillion and you voted for all of it so why would anybody believe you about debt
and deficits do you think anybody even thought about asking that simple question and by the way
it's not a harsh question it's just a factual question and then you got Pelosi she was
asked some question about whether she would
whether the Republicans or Democrats
are going to win or lose come up
and her answer was pretty much
this. We're here for the children.
It's for the children.
That's what she said.
And then I'm thinking to myself again
and it's this woman I think on CBS.
She's now the CBS Sunday morning
interviewer, journalist.
Do you think she asked
right then and there
when she said for the children?
What about the children who are now on the hook for $31 trillion of debt, and you have been there for $26 trillion?
Do you think anybody – you know why they don't ask the question because they afraid they will never get them for an interview again?
In other words, they don't do their job.
They suck.
These journalists are supposed to be the last line of our defense.
Nothing.
For the children, what the hell does that mean?
For the children.
Do you think they also, she was going to ask, by the way, President Biden said he cut child poverty in half, speaking of children.
How did he do that?
By giving a what, a tax credit?
Do you think they ask that?
No.
They suck.
They are so bad.
They make like they're just big swinging, you know what, journalist, look at me, my, mom, right?
Nothing.
These people are murdering our future.
And the last line of the fence are picking their nose and kissing ours.
It's amazing to watch.
It's amazing.
And, you know, I've tweeted to some of these people.
Why didn't you ask this question?
Do you think one of them would answer me back?
The one time I tweeted, I got attacked.
Do you know, I went to Jake Tapper.
Why would we want to trust you?
You keep introducing this guy, Angus Young, Angus something or other, as a independent.
He calls himself an independent, but he votes, he's a Democrat.
Why can't you introduce him?
And he made fun of me, and you know what happened?
I got attacked by the left all over Twitter for like three hours before I wasn't the news anymore.
And then this mediaite writes me up on there also.
You know what it said?
Fox News Business contributor eats crap, something to that effect by Jake Tapper.
Really?
This is what goes on out there.
And this is how you get the $31 trillion a debt.
This is how you get massive inflation.
This is how you get big middle fingers from all these wonderful human beings in D.C.
Jake Tapper attacked me back.
I got hit on it by the left for saying,
why should we trust you when you introduce this guy as an independent?
Well, he is an independent.
No, he's a Democrat.
Bernie Sanders calls himself an independent.
He's a Marxist.
So this is what we're dealing with.
And this is why we'll be at $32 trillion and $33,000 and $34 and 35,
and everybody's going to wonder why things can't get going.
Everybody's going to wonder why.
What the hell's going on?
Why is this happening?
Everybody's going to wonder why.
And you know, I get attacked when I say we got to lower the government spending.
Oh, you want to get rid of Social Security and Medicare.
Two Ponzi schemes that are paid by people today for the people that put in the money yesterday.
That can never be changed because they set it up that way.
That's how Ponzi schemes work.
Greatest ever.
And there's just no questioning of any of it.
It's all kissing the butts of these people in order to keep getting the interviews.
And that's it.
Boiler plate, plate questions, no follow-up.
What do you mean for the children?
What does that mean?
Nope.
What do you mean when you say you're lowering the deficit?
It's going to be $1.4 trillion this year, a record for a year without COVID.
What do you mean you're lowering the debt?
No.
Nothing.
Nothing.
Nodda.
I may just have to run in 24.
they're going to hate me, but I may just have to run.
So that was the Sunday weekend.
On the Sunday political shows,
as we head into another election where the Republicans are going to win the House,
and I must tell you, two weeks ago,
I didn't think they win the Senate,
but I think they got a decent chance now.
It's all about momentum, and nothing's going to change.
Up next, markets, continuation.
I'll explain.
This is the one and only investors.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
Yay.
By the way, just remember, again, we take no joy and taking all these people on, but they're killing us.
and we never did this
we only started doing this under George Bush
when the compassionate
conservative decided to
not be so compassionate with our tax dollars
that's when we really started
and then we amped it up with Obama and his
lies in Obamacare
yeah we're going to put all these people on insurance
and we're going to get rid of
pre-existing conditions that's going to get paid for
but don't worry your premiums will go down
so we got that
and then Trump six trillion
of debt later. Oh, I'm a great businessman. I know how to cut the debt and deficits. Six trillion
later. And now you got this goblin, Joe Biden. So we'll keep talking it. And maybe we can
affect some change somewhere. I don't know. We'd love to. It would be nice because the train is
running down them tracks. And there's not a lot of track left, kids. All right. Let's back.
Backtrack. Two Thursdays ago, we had a monstrous what we call a reversal day. Little lessons for you here. What we are good at identifying characteristics of bull and bare markets, tops and bottoms, near-term lows, near-term highs, things like that. And one of the main characteristics, when you're in a bear market, when you drop 5,600 Dow points in two months, which we did. 3,800 Dow points in one month, which we did. Well, two Thursdays ago, out of nowhere, we were down again.
early in the morning and then, whoosh, we rallied up like 13, 1,400 points in two, three hours.
Out of nowhere.
And going into that week, actually for a couple of weeks, bearishness and picking up dire warnings.
We had, let's see, the J.P. Morgan's CEO out of nowhere come out, 20% drop to come.
Where were you for the first 35 on the NASDAQ?
You know, that guy, Dr. Doom, all of a sudden, he comes out of his cave.
you know, the late comer with his doom, doom, where's he been for a year?
And I go on and on to that stuff.
So we have this big reversal and the identification of that is this, a washout.
What it means is after 5,600 points down in two months, 3,800 points in one month,
as you keep going lower and lower, all the masses get bearish.
and anybody who wants to sell wanted to sell
just get me the hell out
and it ends up with a big wash out and a big reversal
and that's the identifying mark
and we identified one fee on January 24th
February 24th there was another one in May
another one in June
and that turned into something better
but nothing's ever 100%
there's no guarantees you don't really know
is it going to turn into something and you know
the next day sucked. The Friday was terrible. In fact, the next day they hammered the NASDAQ types,
which by the way, are not in great shape, even with this little rally here, just want to let you know.
But then we backed and filled for a few days. And then Friday, we had a real strong high volume day.
We call it a confirming day. Now, others call it a follow-through day, but we just use confirming because that's just us.
and all it just does it confirms that low.
It tells you, yeah, that low has some significance.
And we use the terminology, that low is not going to be taken out any time soon.
That's the terminology we use.
Also, you need to know also, let me just jump a little bit.
We're pretty darn good at knowing when these counter-trend rallies are over.
In fact, in the bare market, we have called the tops of the counter-tren rallies within three days.
One time, it was two days, one time it was the day because it was so stark.
We will not, listen carefully, call the end of this rally until it tells us.
You know, I heard somebody tell us today.
somebody was on tube today
at the end of 23
the end of 23
we're still in 22
you told us at the end of 23
the S&P would be so and so I'm like what
is he Karnak
and then there was somebody else
that just barishes all hell and this is not
going to last them
okay terrific
the way we handle it is
we'll let the market tell us
and we'll know
pretty quickly
when it's over
And we also use the terminology. Maybe it is the bottom. But if it is, as we always say, there's a lot of backing and filling and ironing out to do. And you need to have leadership. I need to be able to come onto a radio show on my webcast and say, hey, this broke out, this sector, this sector, that sector, this sector, that sector. And I'm not just talking about coming off the lows and rallying up 10%. I'm talking about big leadership. I think that's going to take a while.
But again, confirming Friday, we told you that, another good day today.
And may I say there was a lot of warts today.
Let me catch up a little bit towards the end of the day.
I'm going to still tell you about some warts, but let me just start out by saying,
auto parts retail.
It's only a few names, breaking out into new high ground.
One of them reports this week, though.
the managed care which we've been talking about for quite a while
because it's held up great
a few names edging out of range
couple report this week though
some drugs
Merck breaks out to new highs
McKesson
Eli Lilly
Merck reports this week
some big biotech
we don't talk about the no sales biotechs
good day today Amgen and the Dow
they report this week
looks like it wants to break out a range
defense stocks
everybody likes a good war
that's
decent
some insurance stocks
and Avis rent a car
broke above a little range today
and we think some of that's a short squeeze
every time it moves it's like a little squeeze
the fact it's able to go up 15% today
so there's actually
some things
what's some of the issues
well you're going to need technology how do we know this well 30 years of technology leading up and down
and technology pretty much a bunch of it played catch-up today but uh ff needs a lot of work
the high beta bombed out technology names hardly budged today the ones that were up and there was
still a bunched down before the nasda got a little bit better in the day
So that's going to really have to do better.
And may I state that Chinese stocks are getting killed, even more.
I'll explain that.
Rest of the market, whatever else comes to mind.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to.
Uh, tonight,
I need Jacoby Myers of the New
England Patriots not to do too much so I can win my fantasy this week. I played Kenan Allen. I had him
and he got two catches for 11 yards. That did not help me this week. And I had my buy week with
my Bill's quarterback. So it was a tougher week, but I can still win. I need Jacobi Myers. First number one
to get no touchdowns. And I know this new New England quarterback's been throwing it pretty good.
so we'll see root for me okay so we've given you a little bit of the confirmation and we've given you
a little information on a little bit of you know follow through and better action and as we stated
very carefully we don't know when this rally ends
will identify it when it does.
Back to the Chinese ADR, so you do remember a bunch of these Chinese stocks that came out
and somehow just went ape crap to the upside.
HKD, a $7 IP opens at 15.
It did go to $2,550.
And we don't know what did it, how it did it.
It got to $450 billion market cap.
companies got like 14 million in sales
but we watched it as it was going up
I think when we hit 1500 there was like a
$300 spread
and they kept stopping trading
because of it
the NASDAQ decided we're not trading
these things anymore and I think that's a good move
but one of the outcomes of this
is Baidu down 11.5 to 80 today
Alibaba down 9 to 63
Simple PDD, get this, down 14 to half to 44.
Tencent, TCEHY, down four and a quarter to 25 and change.
E-D-U down 365 to 19 a quarter.
Yum China, that's the Yum brands, down $6.30 to 3884.
Holy crap.
JD down five and a half to 3660.
and by the way, these things are way down from the highs.
Get this.
J.D. 108 to 36.
Alibaba.
Not making this up.
319 to 62.
These are not crappy companies.
Bidu.
354 to 79.
This PDD, it's called Pinduoduo-D.
Retail Internet.
212 to 44.
Five weeks ago, it was 73.
What do we tell you about keeping stops in place, kids?
And the other party equation, we're just not going to invest in China.
We haven't in a while, and we're not going to.
The guy running the joint is going full communist.
They went towards capitalism, more market-oriented.
they're taken over.
And they're repressing and depressing people.
You can read about what's happened in Hong Kong
with some of these owners of newspapers.
They've been put in jail.
I don't know why anybody now would go,
any tourists go to China.
I can't even go to Hong Kong now.
And I would love to go back.
There's some great things to see in China.
I'm done.
Done.
So that was that and that just brings me to the point of, you know, a lot of people say you got to diversify.
Got to diversify.
You know, you hear 10,000 times.
Oh, emerging markets.
You've got to have emerging markets.
God, you've got to have emerging markets.
No, no, no, you've got to have emerging markets.
They're emerging.
In case you don't know, there is an ETF for emerging markets, EEM.
It's trading today where it did in 06.
16 years and no gains.
Emerging markets.
The FXI is China.
It's a China Exchange trading fund.
You know where it's trading right now?
We were traded.
Oh, in 2006.
We're not making this up.
Diversify?
I like diversifying.
You should like diversifying.
Make sure what you're diversifying in is not crap.
How do I define crap?
It's going down a lot.
Stunning to see what's going on.
And the dude run the joint.
I don't think he knows what outcome he's going to have.
Yeah, he's going to be a dictator.
Yeah, he's going to be a control freak.
He's going to put his whole economy in the crapper.
Capital and business is treated, go where it's treated best.
People too.
You really think anybody's going to be going?
Or let's put it this way, a lot less people.
A lot less capital because there's going to be a lot less belief of fair shake.
So not for me.
Hope you've been listening because we've been telling you that for a while.
Market wrap today is brought to you by Investment-Models.com.
That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers.
No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.
Go check it out.
Investment-mottles.com.
And by the way, overnight, the Hengseng, dropped the 1,00030 points,
the 15-180.
The futures for the Dow were up 300, and when that happened, they were down 200.
Well, the market opened, opened hot, finished up 417, S&P 44, NASDAQ 92, NASDAQ 100, 119, the transports, 373.
A lot of that has to do with Avis ran a car.
That said, listen carefully.
Advanced declines on the NASDAQ were only 23 up 21 down and only 24 up 17 down.
on in New York. Those are not great numbers. And the Russell 2000, hardly up. Very narrow,
big capish type day. Not saying that's bad. Just letting you know it's a very narrow big
capish type day. If we own anything right now, big capish. By the way, the hangs sing.
Let's see where that bad boy's been. Let's go to the monthly. Yeah, the hangs saying.
is trading, yeah, just where it was in 06.
And down 50 some odd percent from 18, you can go look it up, H-A-N-G, S-E-N-J.
So be careful about diversifying.
You got that?
Trust is low.
Pay attention to price.
Pay attention to pattern.
Is it descending or ascending?
Quite simple.
And as a guy turned into straight old control fee,
communism. No, I'm not talking about Biden. Now, I'm talking about Xi from China. At least there's
some checks and balances here to a certain extent. Elections. Looking forward to gridlock after
November. You know, I can't stand the Republicans. These Republicans, but I really hope they
win, they're definitely winning the House. I really hope they win the Senate too. I want
this president neutered. That's not a violent term, by the way.
neutered policy.
I don't want anything coming from him.
It's all control freakism.
Rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, taxes, and giveaways to get your vote.
That's bad.
That's we the government, not we the people.
That's growing government.
That's ascending government, descending economy.
And you've been seeing it.
for a while now. They're all lucky they have us. And that's a little bit of this, that,
and the other thing on the markets and stuff like that. Just so you know, it's a big earnings week.
A gargantuan earnings week will give you out who and whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one
only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X
offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit.
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The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
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explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,
Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
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The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
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meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more,
microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself
for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture
X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel
credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000
Lounge is worldwide.
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What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
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You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In The Wester's Edge.
With Gary Culper.
After the close today, there was not much in the aftermarket.
one that I had an interest in is Discovery Financial.
It is down, close at 9586.
I have it in 92 and a half, so that's not great.
But just to give you an idea this week, so you have an understanding that, pay attention.
3M before the open, 3M has been a destroyed stock.
Biogen had a great reaction to a drug news recently.
We'll see how that goes.
one of the weaker managed care stocks in a group that's getting strong.
Coca-Cola in the Dow.
I love Coke Zero, by the way.
Corning.
GE is not what it used to be, but it's still GE.
GM.
SAP, big software company.
Sherwin Williams.
They have a good paint.
UPS.
Google. I don't know why they changed the name to alphabet.
Ameriprise Financial. Important money management.
Canadian National Rail in Canada.
Chubb insurance.
Used to have my home insurance with them.
They were very good.
Chipotle.
That's either going to move up 200 or down 200.
N-phase, one of the stronger solars that just broke down near-term recently.
Microsoft after the close
I think they matter
and that's in the Dow Texas Instruments
Big Time Semiconductor
Terodyme big time semiconductor
Visa in the Dow
This is just tomorrow after the close
Spotify
Loses a lot of money
Skechers
They have yet to call me Spotify
They should
Wednesday before they open
Boeing and the Dow
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Bristol Myers
ADP,
Norfolk Southern,
Old Dominion,
that had a good day today.
Trucker,
waste management,
Wingstop,
I still got to go there.
Garmin, General Dynamics,
Harley Davidson,
Amarada Hess,
well, they call it Hess now.
Hilton,
I just stated a Hilton this weekend.
And I'm a diamond member, by the way.
After the close Wednesday,
I'm just trying to pick out the real
Canadian Pacific, the other railroad in Canada.
Ford, Motor, Fortune Brands, KLA 10Core, Facebook.
Their name is not meta.
That's a stupid move on their part.
Melina Health, I bring that up because of the manager care strong.
O'Reilly Automotive, I bring that up because it broke out today to new highs.
service now a down and out name in
you know that whole software crap
Wolfspeed got an upgrade today
was up 8 finish down 3
that's not good news
Thursday before the open
Caterpillar very important in the Dow
checkpoint software Comcast
Auto Nation
Baxter Borg Warner
Altria Group they kill people
well their cigarettes do
Honeywell in the Dow
McDonald's in the Dow
Merck in the Dow Mastercard
Northrop Grumman, Royal Caribbean, Reliance Steel, Shopify,
boy, has that been crushed.
STM Micro, T-Roe Price, Twitter,
but that don't matter anymore that's being bought.
And it looks like the deal's getting done now.
Western Digital, after the closed Thursday, you ready for this crap?
Amazon and Apple.
I believe that's 1-2 in the NASDAQ 100.
Amazon's earnings supposed to fall off the cliff,
but expected.
Apple's earnings supposed to be flat.
year over year.
We'll see.
Capital One, Decker's Outdoor, First Solar, Intel and the Dow.
They need to take that out of the Dow.
Mohawk Industries, LPL Financial, L3 Harris,
Gilliad, important biotech, Eastman Chemical,
U.S. Steel, we think it's an important week,
Texas Roadhouse, Republic Services, Principal Financial,
Friday, Chevron and Exchevron, and Exist,
on before the open. How's that for this week? By the way, I left out a bunch of other ones,
but I did the main, you know, maybe movers and shaker type of thing. How do we play those?
We don't. If we don't own them, we don't jump in front of them. Never. If we own them
with a lot of cushion, we'll tend to keep it. There's nothing with cushion. Right now, we've been
the bare market, right? What was to own? Things are going down, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90%,
90%. No, thank you. So we'll see what earnings are. I can tell you guidance has come down in the last
couple of months because of what Target said and what, especially what FedEx said, as well as what
Dell said in Eulet Packard. We're seeing some beat, but I must remain with the statement of just
Be careful. Goldman Sachs beat by a mile.
Earnings were down 45%.
Just remember, they can rally up because of how far down they are at any time.
If you can't grow earnings, your stock ain't going up for the long term.
Earnings and the growth of those earnings are the defining force.
Nothing more, nothing less.
Seriously.
Over time, it is the earnings growth.
and obviously better that you have the big sales growth along with it.
You can have big earnings growth with no sales growth because of turnarounds and companies,
you know, has a certain amount of expenses and they cut them out and they fix this and that
and the other thing up.
But that only lasts for so long.
That's where we're always looking for those companies growing 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80,
100%, 200%, 400%, whatever it may be.
Earnings and revs.
The more, the better and for the longer.
the better. Just remember, all the great companies that have lasted a decade lasted for one
reason and one reason only. Strong growth of earnings and sales. So understand that. And just because
you beat numbers and the stock moves up right now, if you ain't growing, it's going to hit a brick wall
eventually. And that is not opinion. That is thousands of hours of studies not only by me,
but people that I've studied, that have done the studies, as well as I.
And that's our take.
Otherwise, you'll have a great evening.
Drive carefully.
I give all my recommendation to Silver Airways.
Good job to that airline.
I'll fly him again.
And until tomorrow, same time, when you get home, make sure you hug your children,
hug your family, they will feel better, you will feel better, I promise.
And in case we forget, we always thank you for putting your trust on us.
We're going to continue to work hard at it.
Good night, all.
Bye-bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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