Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE MARKET BEAT GOES ON [12.19.2023]

Episode Date: December 19, 2023

garykaltbaum.com

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Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is the 19th, December, 2003.

Hope you having a good day. We are pre-taping the show today before the market closes. We're actually, as I speak, 3.30 p.m. Why? You may not be able to see it because you're going to hear this later, but I am going to be on Fox News with Neil Cavuto in the 4 o'clock hour, and we like getting the show done beforehand. We will take you to the close of the day.

Another good day in the market. We'll go through it. Got some specifics to say. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, We'll post it at gary k.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And by the way, have you noticed now Elon Musk is enemy number one now? They loved him before he bought.

They hate him now because he has realized that these nutcases control freaks on the left. And what we're talking about the extreme left here, we're not talking moderates. He's tired of him, and all of a sudden he's the antichrist. I love how the median people are because somebody thinks something. Anyway, everybody hates me because I can't stand anyone. What can I tell you? I've lost all hope with the leadership, the whole works. Let's see, today, hmm, today, five billion dollars was added to our debt today.

five times three, $5.3.3 billion was added to our debt today. And tomorrow, and the next day, and the next day, infinite and it grows every day. And, you know, it just, and they can talk markets all they want. The market's going up and it's still strong. Interest rates keep coming down. And I think the market's going to continue to go higher in the near term. But there will be, maybe it's the year 2050 or 240 year next year, there's going to be the hell to pay

and unfortunately the culprits are going to be either dead or retired in big houses somewhere around the globe that's how it works do you see how many people are retiring this year from Washington DC they know what they did anyway also you can email me just be nice at gary k.com

and I must tell you we get a lot of emails from people and you know the questions about the market, questions on stocks, the bond market, things that I say. But we also get questions or actually statements. People peoed at me for calling Biden and Trump the Ebola virus versus the bubonic plague. And I get it. And I just want to let you all know. I respect all your opinions.

I have no problem with anybody rooting for Biden. I have no problem with anybody rooting for Trump. I have no problem with the loved one. I respect you for that. Now, if you're rooting for Hamas, we've got problems. So just letting you know, but hopefully you respect my opinion. I just, how do I put this? And I put it in an email to somebody today.

If I can't tell my sons to look up to these people, then I have no use for them. and I just think both of them are corrupt, sleazy, lying, self-dealing pieces of crap. That's all. And you can add a few other things and differing things. But all in all, you know, we can get into Trump and his foibles and all that and, you know, things he has said and just utter stupidity. But to me, it's all in a nutshell that you lose an election, you're supposed to be a man. You stand up and say, congratulations, I will be back in four years. But no, he made up the story.

Look at all these people that are screwed. Giuliani just lost the, and by the way, they're all responsible for themselves. Giuliani just lost a hundred million buck lawsuit. He's a moron. The guy's an absolute moron. He ruined two women's lives. And he's still now saying the same crap. that he lost $148 million, and they're suing him again.

And then you got the, you know, the Sidney Powell and the Jenna Harris. These are the ones that I was getting emails from a bunch of you saying, did you see what Sidney Powell said and whatever the Jenna Ellis said? You see, the election, what they both came out and said, they lied. They made it up. Giuliani came out and said he made it up. The pillow guy. I can go on and on.

So I'm just a big believer. If I can't tell my kids to look up to somebody, and unfortunately, Washington, D.C. leaves a lot to be desired. And as I said to you, sometimes everything is in the numbers. They, all of them, have brought us to, every day, $5 billion is added to our debt.

It's unimaginable, unthinkable. It's going to grow worse and worse all the time. and they keep, just so you know, all they're doing is taking out another credit card with a higher credit limit to pay for the last one and telling you everything's okay. Biden's trying to figure out why his poll numbers are worse than root canal and jock itch. Seriously. And I have the answer. It's because people are done. They're done.

And these are broad poll numbers, not just the part. party. They're done. You tell people that it was the Putin price hikes on the inflation, but when inflation comes down, it's you. Lie. You tell people you cut child poverty in half. Lie. He did a tax credit, and he said he cut child poverty in half. Lie. Your whole family is corrupt, taken in tens of millions of dollars in plain sight. You're lucky the media is not doing their job. got to do is investigate. The border, you basically have just destroyed our border. You said you were the anti-chaos person that Trump's the chaos guy. Well, let's see, since your president, you effed up Afghanistan, left a crap load of machinery there and artillery there for them, where the

women of Afghanistan are back into the dark ages because you left. You got Russia, you Ukraine, Israel, China threatening Taiwan. North Korea just came out and threatened us today. You want me to continue? You're running the biggest deficit ever at $2 trillion this year. You're handing out taxpayer dollars to people. You're picking and choosing winners on their student loans. And people are just enough.

And you're hardly anywhere to be found. Anybody see Joe Biden? Every now and then he shows up, and we know for a fact they're kind of because of his age. And by the way, notice I'm not really even talking age because I don't care if you're 150 years old if you're putting in good policies and think of we the people. So I just wanted to start with that a little bit as the market gets towards the close and then I can give you out the numbers. But that's really the story going on. And the reason I'm bringing up, hey, I got a few emails in the last week from people about Biden and Trump and Trump and Trump and Biden. And again, we believe in numbers. Trump came in and said, oh, he's going to lower

the deficit. Oh, he's the art of the deal and he's the greatest deal maker of all time. And he's going to lower the deficit in debt. And you know what he did? He came right in and raised spending $600 billion a year infinitum. That's a Democrat. And then, of course, his tariffs, he lied about those. Just big lie. The tariffs killed the foamers. Farmers lost there. You know what? they were pissed at him he was worried about getting the votes for his re-election and guess what he trump did he paid off the farmers with our tax dollars a democrat does that the payoffs so again we just don't have any love for any of them sorry uh we we catch fire from both but i must tell you we get a lot of emails gary you're right i'm fed up i'm done i'm this i'm that i'm this i'm that

And you know. And you realize there's, you know, the third party thing, they've set it up so a third party can never win. That's how they've set it up. They're really good in D.C. What a system. Unbelievable system. God bless them. It's like the Godis and the Gambinos.

Anyway, that's just me, my opinion. And again, we respect every one of you. we wish you all the best. I do have to say if a president or a politician defined your life, maybe you want to, you know, take a step back because no politician should define your life. Your hard work and your love of your family and your religion should, your passions, that should define your life.

Anyway, just food for thought. whatever you think. God bless you. Anyway, we're heading for the holidays. Market. Enfuego. Up next. We'll go through it. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

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APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.edu. What do this animal... And this animal? And this animal? Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutritious milk and cheese.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. bomb it doesn't get better than this so very simple by the way thanks for being here this is investors edge we remain in a bullish phase that started with the big confirmation November 1st this bullish phase is occurring because of a crash in interest rates interest rates were the culprit for the market getting smoked the latest being from July to the end of October, to where, and I don't, I saw a charlatan on TV today. You know what a charlatan is?

Do you know what the definition of a charlatan is? Somebody who presents themselves as something they are not. Or you'll get my point. So this person's on TV. Oh, see the market, this, that, and this that, and this, that, and this, that. and this, that, and how did you know? Oh, I knew. Well, this charlatan has never been bearish.

So throughout 21 got his butt wiped. From July to end of October, just less than two months ago, was crushed in the markets. And I know what they own. Big financials destroyed. And now we get seven weeks of rally. yeah, you see, I tell this, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I love people. Anyway, so from July to end of October, interest rates skyrocketed.

They went from 3-7 to 5 on the 10-year yield. That is that yield that has to do with mortgages and all kinds of borrowings. And the market swooned. during that time what only really held up at the time were they call them the magnificent seven but they really more than that but not many

every day I was able to come on this show and tell you how bad the action was every day I'd be able to come on to the show and say to you 80% of the market are in definable downtrends definable downtrends of differing levels. And what we mean by that is some things are way down, some things, and that's 25%, some 15,

so differing levels. That all changed in about the around the 19th, 24th on June trading days to the 26th of October. The 10-year yield could not punch through 5%. And then what happened was on the 26th during the day you hit 5% and you closed at 4.845 and then yields never saw the light of day after that. On November 1st, you went from yields 4.7 down to 4.626 and that was the day the market telegraphed. It had this big day. We call it a confirmation day. And we're doing a little repetition here so we were we want and remember this for the future. And all that meant, and all I said to you, I didn't say the bottom is in. You know, everybody, it's the bottom, it's the bottom, it's the bottom. No, what we do is the usual. We said to you, it was a confirming follow-through day. And all that means is it's a characteristic of a potential for the market to put in a low. That's all. How do we know this? Because we go back through history and every bullish phase started with one. And as we tell you, go look at up what it

means, follow-through day. We'll look up William O'Neill, follow-through day, confirmation day. So all we said to you that day was, we got now finally some potential here that maybe we can get some sort of turn in the market. And the next day yields gap down big. And we, now we know we're off to the races. We didn't know it at that time. And at that point in time, we started entering the market again. But something happened a week later, and we got out. And then three days later was the next move in the market, the second move.

It was a huge gap to the upside on a huge drop in yields, a gap in yields. It was the 14th. That's where we really started to get in. and we bought ETF type things, some names, that type of stuff. And all we can tell you, and listen carefully, this move is what we call outlier. It means more than the normal in a shortened period of time. And it's not easy because you want to get in more if you're not in. But the problem is, oh, look where that was seven weeks ago.

How do I do that now? Look where something was seven weeks ago. How do I get in now? Well, it's a damn good question. Because what if you start getting in now and all of a sudden, yield start heading up again, and the market starts turning down again? how do you go about these things? We're going to give you an idea just so you know.

And it's tough to do via radio without showing you. But you'll get the idea as we explain it. If we're in a bullish phase that has length in time and price, let's say another three months, let's say another six months. If, if, we're just letting you know, typically you get what we call secondary buy points. It is where a stock goes up, makes a right turn, sits around, let the norm catch up. What does that mean? Time and price.

Go from 100 to 130 in a couple of weeks because the market. It's that damn strong. And then for three weeks, four weeks, you sit around between 125 and 130. You let what we call moving averages play catch up. And if you want to know what are moving averages, you just take the moving average. You add the closes up and you divide by the amount of that moving average. We look at the 50 day. We look at the 21 day is the shorter term, 50 day a little bit farther out.

200 days, the big matzabal. And then you look to buy off of them, or you also can buy off what we call flag pattern, straight up, make a right turn for a couple weeks, and then jump again. And typically that's what you get. The problem with this one is it's been an outlier move. And not everything, but a bunch of things.

We're seeing moves and financials back up. kind of unprecedented then again the drop was kind of unprecedented also and as we said to you a lot of these banks are just bonds now they're bond funds and they were crushed when bonds got hit and they're rallying up strong because bonds are rallying yields coming down and the reason their bond funds is they bought long-term bonds because they were forced to make any kind of return and now they're making hay again. Up next, we'll continue as we take it to the close.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs,

APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire,

APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APU. APUS.edu. So what do this animal... And this animal? And this animal? Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm.

Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovee.coop and taste the difference. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,

and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So let me give you an example for all of you out. they're just in case. Just so you know, I'm getting calls from people that are 100% out of the market. Should I get in now? They didn't call me seven weeks ago. They didn't call me five weeks ago. Didn't call me four weeks ago. They didn't email me two weeks ago. Now they are. People that I don't even know. Hey, Gary, I listen to you on the radio. I watch you on TV. What do you think? Now they're asking. So what do we do with times like this? Well, number one, we do not know duration. We don't. We don't know if this is going to last. We don't know. Well, what we do is what we usually do. Study. We really don't know if it tops out tomorrow. Odds favor, it's not. We don't know if this is the start of something huge. Odds favor, it's not. And the reason I say that is because this move started with some pretty high valuations. And you can always value things, but who to

hell knows? Maybe, we'll see. But what we do is we go back to 2009 and the market bottom in March of 2009 after a bare market. And you know what the market did? It had a strong move up from March to June. Very strong move. In fact, the NASDAQ hit 1265 at a low in March, 1879 in beginning of June. Whoa, how do you go buy then? Well, for five weeks dropped from 1879 to 1727, tagged right at the 50-day moving average, where price usually gets defended in a bullish phase that's going to continue.

And guess what? It was $2,200 by November. That's what we do. Now, markets are never exact. Markets never repeat 100%. But we're always in recognition of markets. And we have studied bull and bare markets. we have studied the biggest bull markets, the biggest bear markets.

We have studied tops and bottoms. How the heck do you think on November 1st we were able to come out and even state, hey, this could be the confirm the turn? Let's see what happens. The reason being we've studied the stuff. And it didn't have to be because, as we've said to you, just so you know when you get one of those days, if in the first week all of a sudden you get big, heavy selling, it usually means it's going to fail. But we did not get that. And of course, subsequently, you know what's been going on.

So we're just letting you know normally you are going to get some really good secondary buy points just like 2003, the biggest bare market for the NASDAQ in history. Do you know the NASDAQ went from 5432 to 1108 from March of 2000 to December 2002? And it really took off March of 03.

And do you know after it took off? off, you just got buy point after buy point after buy point because guess what, that's what bullish phases do. They do give you opportunity. You just got to be smart. You got to be smart. It's like waiting your turn to the market gives you that open door. I don't know if the open door is here because we've had a little bit of what I would call relentlicity.

I just made up a word. Relentlicicity, and it's in, ready for this? The 80% of the market that was trashed. Remember, 80% of the market, downtrend, downtrend, we would name it every one of those sectors. And guess what every one of those sectors are doing now? Leading. What was the worst back then?

Financials were crushed. Crushed. regional bank index went from 65 the low in October was 37 and change it's back to 52 already

stocks like Caterpillar in the Dow hit 223 at the end of October it's 292 in seven weeks the old high was 294 in July it has done a round

trip in short order and if you had to draw picture it's one big giant V-shape you-shaped outlier outlier and all because interest rates crashed

that's how important they are that's why we watch them so damn closely on a daily basis and where she stops we don't know the Dow hit 32-327

at the end of October The Dow, the slow-moving Dow is at 37-5. That's a lot. And that's broken the highs of July. Other things have not. You had a thousand new yearly lows at the end of October. You now have 800 new yearly highs. Seven weeks later, that should be about 25 weeks later. As a norm, how do I know the norm? We've gone through it. it a bazillion times. We've gone through them a bazillion times. So just letting you know, we're looking from big, big gigantic bypoints. And as I look at the major indices, they are sticking up right now and overdue. But they were overdue yesterday, the day before, the day before, the day before, and as of the close today, still going. Some will say, oh, it's the end of the year thing, we couldn't give a hoot

when it's happening. We give a hoot that it is happening. We bought ETFs November 14th. It's December 19th. ETFs of indices and their double-digit gains in that short period of time.

The squeeze beyond, and it did not end today, and we're finishing on a good close again today at the highs of the day. What more can I tell you? And as I look at my screens, the screens that eight weeks ago every day were beat red are now lime green. When things change, we will let you know. But at the close today, we finished at the highs of the day.

Again. On the back of another drop in interest rates. Again. This may not sound like a lot to you, but we have gone from 5% to 3.9% on the 10-year yield. That should be a year of moves in seven weeks. And there you go. Dow finished up 252, S&P 27, NASDAQ 98, NASDAQ 18, NASDAQ 128. transports 141, advanced declines good, up down volume good, and yields were down. Oh, and the dollar was down. They go hand in hand. And there is a direct correlation between markets and yields and the dollar. Up next. Whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one that only investors edge.

Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.

Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. So what do this animal And this animal And this animal Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm Organic Valley dairy comes from small Organic family farms that protect

The land and the plants and animals that live on it From toxic pesticides Which leads to a thriving ecosystem And delicious, nutritious milk and cheese Learn more at ovi.coop And taste the difference. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed

for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort. Tompher. Tompvert. Tommy John. Comfort. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge With Gary Culpa. And what's again to Investors Edge? Thanks for being with us today. So the market just closed. I gave you the numbers.

FedEx reports after the close. Mike Ron with Big Losses reports tomorrow. Nike on Thursdays in the Dow. Carnival's going to be reporting. Supposedly a lot. I say they made money, they better. And I just want to repeat something I have said to you that is of import. We are price weighted here, but we also look at earnings in a very big way.

We want to own great companies with great earnings, great revenues, and all that crap. We're just letting you know amongst a slew of stuff and a slew of names. If we don't have a really sharp earnings rebound, which we could. We're going to be left with some seriously high valuations in the market. And eventually, as we always tell you, valuations also will always go back to their norm. Want you to remember that. And if the norm is 15 on the market and we're at 20, well, if we're at 20 and we're 20 and we're 20 and we go back to 15, will you add the percentage drop? No, we are not outlining what we think is going to happen.

We are telling you that we're going to be watching that. As we mentioned yesterday, a micron is going to report another loss tomorrow. Their company, business, is down by half. The amount of sales is down by half year over year yet the stock during that year has gone from new yearly lows to new yearly highs so as i said to you if there's no big earnings recovery with micron and they're still losing money when does the market give them the big you know what finger the answer is eventually so stay tuned. Not so worried on financials because, as we said, there will be an earnings recovery. Why? Because as markets go up, they recover. Investment bankers recover. That bond market thing, they're recovering. As we stated, it's been like a bond fund. They're recovering.

So stay tuned. But another good day. I just want to repeat. We bought some mainstream ETFs a month and five days ago that are double digits already. That's what we mean by outlier. That will eventually change. It did not change today. We'll let you know when we see changes. Next, I'd like to bring up the gold because we get emails on gold all the time and just letting you know the GDX, the miners. move above $32 on the GDX would be good news for the gold miners.

We're not saying it's going to happen. We're just telling you move above 32. The GLD, which is gold, well, hit a high of 192.40, so one would think that would be the number. That was the closing high two Fridays ago. Was it three Fridays ago already? And as we've said, if gold can break out of the big all-time high going back ages, probably going to say something. Probably going to say something. And on gold, believe it or not, I look at a monthly chart. Because you can go back to 2020, and then you can go back to 2011.

Now, you're a little higher than 2011's high, but just a little bit. but if you can stick the landing gold's got a real chance to do some damage to the upside and by the way the last couple of years one if you look at a monthly would look at as a one big gigantic cup and handle pattern

and we don't usually give those name patterns out but go look up the term cup and handle pattern Usually it's on a one year or a weekly five year. This is on a 15 year monthly. That be one hell of a break to the upside on the price of gold. Why? The dollar. There is a pretty good direct correlation.

And just so you know, even though people have been talking about the death of the dollar, the UUP is an exchange traded fund for the dollar index. it hit a low in 2011. It hit a high in 2023 just recently. Just letting you know. People shoot their mouths off sometimes and just say anything. The dollar, the dollar, do. How many years I've been hearing the dollar is going to go to nothing?

Yet the dollar has been soaring for the past 10 years. And one would think that has to do a little bit with, we're better than the worst or the worse. Because man, oh man, some of these other countries, some of these other countries, the leaders are running their countries into the ground even worse than ours. And that's saying a lot,

because you know what we think of the leaders of this country. So that's the story. Another good day. An outlier move for the last seven weeks. It's not like what happened at the end of 1999. that unbelievable NASDAQ move. But in the last seven weeks off a low, stay tuned.

You'll have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise.

Have a great evening, everybody. Thanks for joining us. As always, peace out all. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire. APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness

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