Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Noisy Week In Review [04.17.2025 feat. Gil Morales]

Episode Date: April 17, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/ & https://theowltrader.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Thursday, April 17th, 2025. Hope you having a good day. Hope you're having a great three-day weekend. For those who celebrate, happy Easter.

Tomorrow's Good Friday, I'm off, so we'll be playing the best of Gary. Normally we introduce ourselves, but today I want to introduce somebody else. One of my favorite people on Wall Street, one of the best eyes on Wall Street. My good friend Gil Morales, he's the former chief market strategist and internal portfolio manager for William O'Neill, of short selling with the O'Neill Disciples and other books and the author of the website and write this one down the owl trader dot com you must visit it again the owl trader dot com join me then you talk about whatever the heck's been going on in these markets my good buddy my good friend gill morales gill thanks for joining hey thanks for having me great to be here so first off

how are you sir how's your health how's life um well i'm reminded of that r em song uh where they say it's the end of the world as we know it but i feel fine so i would say i feel better than fine i feel great so it's been a big year uh for me as far as uh performing in the market so i'm actually i've actually had my best i'm going to say well my best uh four months start in my career so um that's working out pretty well it's basically been short tech long precious metals and it's worked very very well okay so interesting enough that's where I want to start because I know what you've been talking about and harping on uh to all your peeps at the owl trader dot com and that is the shorting of tech and the longing of the gold let's talk let's go

gold first what did you see what are your thoughts and where do you think we are right now because it has made a pretty darn good move it has but I think the move in gold is less technical and more fundamental. And you've seen it just streaking higher. I mean, what was it? Last week you had that huge sell-off. And then there was one day, one or two days, and then boom, it turns right around and shoots the new highs. And the reason for that is central banks around the globe are buying gold because you're getting this second age of mercantilism where countries are going to disconnect from the U.S. and attempt to move away from the dollar, mainly because they just can't trust the new administration.

I think it's been evolving that way for a while. And so if you're, you know, Vietnam or you're Saudi Arabia or even China, and you want to trade with your currency, you're best off backing it with hard money like gold. And so that's what they're doing. And I think they have a lot more to buy. And so I do see the price going considerably higher from here. You know, whether it pulls back in between at some point,

which it will at times. I mean, we saw that last week. But, I mean, the move is holding up fine today. They had this thing down almost 50 bucks on the Comex Futures, and I'm looking at it right now. We're down 1180 at 33, 3440. So, you know, they can't push it down much. So you think the word trust has entered the fray

that's moving this at this juncture? I'm sorry, that Trump? The word trust. Trust. Yeah, I think it's trust. Is that what you're saying? Yeah, I think that's really the key here. People are trying to add, you know, obviously if you trade in your currency or you want

to and it's backed with gold and you say, hey, I've got all this gold back here stored and to back my currency. I think that helps foster the process. And I think that's what a lot of countries are looking to do and move away from the dollar. And so they're buying it. I mean, we know the statistics that we know already. I'm sure there are some that will come out over the next few months, as they're revealed, but central banks have been buying gold hand over fist.

And the question is, when did they start buying silver? And on technology, I've been harping on the fact that there was at one time nine big tech stocks were 54% of the NASDAQ 100 and just the amount of institutional ownership. and congestion and concentration of all these names was beyond the beyond, and eventually that has to get worked off. Was that part of your process, or did you just see everything starting to break down and boom? I'm shorten the heck out of them.

Well, you started to see things breaking down in December. Things are starting to roll over one by one. And names like AMD and Qualcomm and microchip technology, et cetera, we're all topping well before then. And so by the time we got to the end of February, You had that big bump. I think when Trump was babbling something about creating AI data centers or something. Right.

I forget when that occurred. But that got the AI thing going into the end of, well, until the end of February. And then everything rolled over the S&P double top. But you could see it coming, like what you were saying. What Bill O'Neill would say is this area of the market is over owned. Everybody who's going to buy these names is in them. everybody is convinced that they're going a lot higher and that they're a no-brainer. But the whole thing to me, the AI space also getting wildly overbuilt.

You know, it reminds me the Internet because that's what happened with the Internet. It got overbuilt. Everybody was piling in and everybody had, you know, the next greatest thing on the Internet. And that all blew up. I mean, you even saw a stock like Amazon go from $100 to $3. And then it later emerged and became what it is today. But, you know, I would not assume that these names are cheap. here because I think there will be a massive washout and like with names like

Amazon back and eBay back in 2000 and when they came out later on in 2003 2004 you'll see the winners and you may see some new names so that you know I say be patient and don't assume that we've hit bottom and that if you start buying stocks it's a sure thing because I think he'd be asking for trouble because you remember 2000 right oh boy I have studied that about for 4,000 hours at this point in time. Right. And one of the preeminent names at that time was Cisco Systems.

And it got a few high of 84 and change, right? And then when it topped, it dropped down to $60. Oh, it was a bargain. And then it dropped down to $50. It was a bargain. It dropped to $40. It was a bargain. Then it dropped to $20s.

It really must have been a bargain at that point, right? But it wasn't because it went all the way down to $8. And that is actually when Bill O'Neill called me up and told me he was shorting Cisco, and that was the bottom finally. But, you know, you can see that happen with a number of these names. because they're overowned, overplayed, and wildly overvalued. And if you have a situation where you're starting to see liquidity being drawn out of the system, and I think that's another thing to consider when it comes to these high-peg names,

is that the new administration is set on cutting government spending, cutting all this waste, and trying to bring things back into line. So what I think you're going to see is you're not going to see this excessive spending that you saw under the Biden administration. And that money went into the economy, propped everything up, found its way into the stock market, prop that up. And that's now shifted. So there's a sea change in terms of liquidity coming into the system from government spending.

And also the Fed is reticent to lower rates currently. I think they will be lowering rates a lot more aggressively than they think they will be now. Later on in the year, they will. And so that's all starting to reverse what's been, what, 15, 16 years of QE and excessive spending for the past, what since I guess what when did QE start late 2008 early 2000 2008 with Bernanke yeah and so that's all reversing and and in my view that's creating a sea change in underlying condition so uh that's why I think these names you're going to see money coming out of them but you may not see it come rushing back in it may go into other underplayed areas in the market and you have been seeing it move

into the precious metal space because the miners have been doing quite well lately I mean you've got some of these institutional favorites like Agniko Eagle Mines and Newmont Corp breaking out to 52-week highs recently over the past week. And so the way I look at it, even if we bought them near term, because I think the NASA corrected over 26%. The FD was over 21. So those are so-called bare market declines. I say, okay, so those have had one leg down and it's possible that we'll have another leg down. But in the interim, we may have a bare market route. And what do you go after in that case? Well, thinking back to 2000, because I liken this period to the year 2000 and the dot-com bubble.

Now we have the AI bubble, which sits on top of a bunch of other bubbles, right? Crypto, EVs, space stocks, spec stocks, you name it. And so now that you have a potential for a bare market rally, what might work? Well, I think back to 2000, and there was a stock Corning Glassware. works still around GLW is a symbol. GLW. And yeah, and that was the only thing breaking out. When the market had a follow through day on June 1st, 2000, that was the first and only

stock breaking out of it to a new 52-week high. Okay, so Bill O'Neill bought the breakout, and then he banned all of the other internal portfolio managers from buying it. He wouldn't let any of this buy it. He hogged it, basically. But that stock, it went from 74 to, I think, 113. So there's a decent, you know, 50% plus move over the course of the summer. And then the market topped again.

I think it's September, October and rolled over again. And so I look for, okay, what's breaking? If we were to start a bare market rally, what's breaking out? Well, the miners. So that's where I'm going. And when you look at the cash flow they're generating, given the price of gold, it's 33. Actually, I'm looking at it right now, 3333.

Gil, I got to stop you for a second. Going to a break. We'll be right back. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So here's what we got so far. Gil, long the gold, short the tech. And Gil, let me ask you on the technology. Let me just tell you what we've noticed. The same people that have been telling you to buy all the way down with some stocks

I notice like VRT is down 50% they're still telling us to buy you have any thoughts when you see things like that are we going to need like a complete washing out

what I call it the give up phase before any good can come or we're going to just have to go through a real process I definitely think so like I said I wouldn't be buying any of these names here thinking they're cheap. I mean, and that even includes something like Nvidia, because if you

look at Nvidia, this thing could come down a lot further down into the, I would say even to the, into the 50s on top of that big base it formed a couple of years ago. So, no, I think they're all coming lower. They're going to have to wash out. The PEs are going to have to come down, and then

maybe you'll see money flow into them again. Boy, I think you depressed a lot of people, because I got to tell you, and nobody knows where Nvidia's going to go. play it as it comes, but I must tell you, Gil, whenever anybody approaches me that I don't know, here's the two things they ask me. Do you like Nvidia and do you like Palantir? Those are the two names, every single person. And it's amazing that it's just, it enters the lexicon, and it's been so noisy that it's the one, it's the names that had worked before. They have to keep on working,

but that's not necessarily so. No, and they won't. And that's exactly, and because these people are still fixated on it, I think that's one reason why it won't come back. Because my guess is they're fixated on it because maybe they still own it. They want to buy more. They want to average down. So that's probably the psychology behind a lot of that. And Palantir also was, Nvidia was actually a short a long time ago. I mean, double top short up around 150.

And now it's where it's a lot lower now. Palantir was a short at the $100 level about, what, two? and a half months ago. It's hanging on the 50. I don't know. It looks like a head and shoulders to me, and that you're at the right, let's see, the peak of the, I'm going to call it the second right shoulder in a big head and shoulders formation. That's what it looks like to me.

So now, I won't touch these things with a 10-foot pole. But, you know, when people ask you that, Gary, I would ask him, well, how much Newmont mining do you own? How much Enoch Egel mining do you on? How much Kinross gold? How much I am gold? How about B2 gold? How about Alamos gold?

How about gold? How about new gold? How about Equinox gold? How about Anglo-Gold Ashanti? How many of those do you want? And, of course, nobody's asking you about those, which tells me they're going higher. And the cash flow they're generating right now is going to be absurd when they come out with earnings starting next week. You have Newmont and Agneco coming out next week.

And we'll see. If the market's trying to pull off a bare market rally, then I think these stocks will be your leaders. In the same way that Corning Glassworks, GLW, was. a leader back in 2000, June of 2000, but for a brief period, but it had a decent move. So, that's what I'm looking. First of, first of, will you be able to hold on for three segments of the show today? Because I got a lot of things to cover. You good for that?

Yeah, sure. I'm not going anywhere. So next thing, do you feel, is this like the most noisy world we're in right now, the most noisy driven market? I mean, the last three or four weeks with the moves up and down because of this tariff thing. Can you compare this to anything in the past, Washington, D.C. noise, just driving things up a wall both up and down? No, I cannot. I would say, though, from the stories that Bill O'Neill has told me, it may be like what was going on during the Vietnam War and things all over

the place. And then eventually that all settled down. But I wasn't around then, so I don't know. I don't I don't think you were either, but no, I've never seen anything like this. The other thing that's very strange is that in the past, when the market is corrected and you get the NASDAQ down 26% like this, gold and silver come down hard with the market, and so do the miners. And what we've had them doing lately is they're diverging. They're going to new highs, and that's telling you something is different. And I ascribe all of that to the sea change in underlying conditions caused by the shift in less government spending and less debt, hopefully. So, but no, it's strange.

So my question to you is when you see a 2,900 point move in, I think it was like a half hour, then back down 2,000 in a half hour, and then to complete flip-flops on economic policy that really affects the whole world. How does that affect what you do? Do you just keep your head down and watch what is happening? And do bull markets stay bull markets, bear markets, stay bare markets? Yeah, I trade a lot, though. I'm campaigning. On the short side, I campaign things. I always have.

So I'll be very active. And that means if I get a big break in the market and I'm short, a couple of things, maybe long, some of the leverage at inverse ETS, like the SQQQ or the SvX, I'll take profits at the end of the day and look to see if I want to set up again the next day. In today, you can get all kinds of weird moves and you just have to be on your toes. So I don't go to the, well, I do go to the bathroom, but that's only because I keep a computer monitor in my bathroom in case something happens while I'm away from my death. So it's that crazy.

I'm not going to ask you about the computer monitor in your bathroom. Let's talk a little fundamental for one second, the tariffs. where do you stand on them and why do you think the reasoning or the wise that the president is so determined on something that pretty much just knocked eight to ten trillion dollars off the stock market while saying that tariff's the most beautiful word in the dictionary. Yeah, I think he doesn't know what he's talking about because number one, you know he's gaslighting when he tells everybody that we're going to get wealthy for. from other countries paying us tariffs. Well, other countries don't pay you the tariffs. Right. The end users, the consumers in your country pay the tariffs.

So, you know, that's a WTF moment to me. So he's either diluted or misguided or just stupid. But I don't think he's stupid. So I don't know what that one's all about. So I think that's basically a myth, okay. But what he's, I understand what he's trying to do. He's trying to shore up and bring manufacturing back to the U.S. because we consume a lot more than we produce.

We stopped becoming a manufacturing nation a long time ago. We still make a lot of stuff here, but not anywhere near what we used to. And so he thinks he's going to onshore it all by charging huge tariffs, but that's going to take years. And the issue is not other countries taking advantage of us. It's us fostering this use of the dollar to issue debt, and these countries that produce things, we buy their stuff, they take the money and they buy our bonds, so they're essentially loaning it back to us, so we can buy more stuff from them. And it's been a vicious cycle going on for decades now, or at least, I don't know, five or six decades since the 70s, I think. And so, you know, he's trying to reverse that,

but I don't think tariffs are the mechanism to use. The mechanism is sound money and going back to a balance of payment system for trade. So, you know, you can get into the details of that if you understand what that means. But that's how it used to be done. And then what's happened by being able to just print money, we can export inflation. And so our price levels stay high. And our workers who don't get the work that's going overseas, they can't afford. Yeah. We'll be right back with Gil Morales.

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This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And well, once again,

to Investors Edge. We are talking to Gil Morales. And by the way, Gil, the reason why I can't begin to tell you how many people ask, when is Gil Morales going to be back on? In case you don't know, Gil was a chief market strategist, portfolio manager for William O'Neill, and you know, we've talked about him plenty. He also has a book called Short Selling with the O'Neill Disciples. You can get that, I gather, on Amazon. And now, He's got what is called the owl trader.com. So, Gil, why don't you give a little tutorial on exactly what the owl trader.com is? And what do you feel is the benefits of it?

Well, the owl trader.com, the way I designed it, it's basically like almost like an X feed, Twitter feed, whatever you want to call it, where I'm posting articles, they can be long articles, like videos, short articles, market briefs, you name it. in real time to the feed. And so you got a headline and then the content. And what I'm doing is just discussing what I'm doing in the market, ideas in the market, how I'm handling things, different types of setups. I'm basically trying to teach people to think for themselves and not be dependent on me

to tell them what to buy and when to buy it. So it basically works like a streaming feed like X would work. And also people get a sense of what I'm thinking in real time. And it's all in the raw. So the good, bad, and the ugly. When I'm right, you see why I was right. When I'm wrong, you might see why I was wrong. And I think that helps the learning process for most people.

And so I'm trying to create a vehicle that I thought would help teach people because this one thing I do like to do. It's very rewarding. And when you get people calling you up and telling you, you know, I started with $50,000, now I have $2 million. What do I do? You know, stuff like that. So that's basically what it is. And the owl, OWL stands for O'Neill, Wyckoff, Richard Wyckoff, and Jesse Livermore, L, so OWL. And that's that.

So I price it very cheaply. Don't need to make a fortune off of this thing anyways. Although, as you know, websites are getting more expensive to operate. But in any case, you know, that's what it is. But I have fun doing it. So I'll keep doing it until it isn't fun anymore. And you show all the charts and everything because I know. All you've been doing for weeks and weeks is showing a bunch of gold charts and stuff like that.

Yeah, we followed the group along, and so I identify the points that you want to be watching for possible entries and ad points, you know, as they crop up in real time. So that's basically what the whole idea is. And from what I can tell, at least from the feedback I get from the members, it seems to work. And people are learning, and that's really the bottom line. I want people to be able to function on their own in the market. So that's basically it. Okay, Gil, thanks so much for your time. I know how busy are.

Let me give that out again. It's the owl trader.com. Check it out. Gil, any time, any day, love having you on. Congratulations on your continued success. And we wish you and your family, nothing but the best of health and prosperity going forward. You stay well. On you too, Gary. Take care. I'll talk to you later.

All right. Bye-bye. All right. That was Gil Morales. And I'll tell you what I love about it, Gil. He doesn't pull any punches. He's straightforward right at you exactly what he thinks. Go check it out. By the way, I do not get any remuneration for this. You sign up.

I got nothing to do with it. But we just like telling you, and we've been giving you out the people we follow. on Twitter, who we like the most. And again, as always, you get to decide. Okay, moving on. Well, so the Dow was down 527 points today, but it was a pretty decent day in the market. What? How was the Dow down 527 points, but advanced declines on the New York were almost three to one to the positive and more than two to one to the positive on the next? NASDAQ. How is that possible? United Health reported earnings, and it was 851 points to the downside. As you know, United Health is the, I think it's number two now, double checking. Yeah, it was number one in price on the Dow, and it's price weighted the Dow.

In other words, a $500 stock affects the Dow index 10 times more than a $50 stock because it's all the same divisor. United Health was down $130 and 93 cents on their earnings. And I didn't have time today to look them over, but it was reported that from the CEO of United Health that they are very disappointed. That was 851 Dow points. Now, as you know, we always say everything counts. But if you took out United Health today, the Dow was up 324 points. But again, everything counts because if United Health was up 100 and whatever, we would count that on the upside. But letting you know underneath the surface today, for a change, the broad market had a very good day, though it could have been better because at one point today, the Dow, which was down 700 early, only went to down 240.

but at the end of the day dropped back another 280. Things like Goldman Sachs was up like, I think 16, only finished up 10 and some things that were much better pulled back at the end day. I think Home Depot was much higher, but just a very

weird day. That said, the best areas of the market today were the worst areas of the market. There's still not a lot of leadership, what we'd be saying on this show here, where's the leadership? Gold and defensive issues.

Waste management. Somehow McDonald's in the Dow, but no other restaurants, phone companies, some discounters like BJ's wholesalers and T.J. Max. A couple of supermarkets like Kroger, some Coca-Cola, not all, but some of the food beverage, tobacco still strong. So very defensive market. All the areas that we have told you have been bombed. Retail, transports, financials to a certain extent.

Well, not the semi. Semis didn't do much today, but retail transports are up 300 today. Retail, I'm seeing all green, but they're so bombed out that today was a blip. When I look at the patterns, I look at the charts, today was a blip. So going into next week, definitely the broader market a little bit better. But as I look around and I look at the growth screens,

and just so you know, we have everything separated, everything we do, we have separated by sectors. We can tell you our growth screen looks like the south end of a northbound jackass. Some things bounce today. Something service now down 24 bucks today. Viva down 5, workday down 6. Cyber down 6. Monday down 4.

You don't want to see that. We want to see the opposite. Again, what was up today, Goldman Sachs was 65 Dow points. Good to see. But we want real dynamic leadership. when we look at the new yearly high list, you know what's on the new yearly high list? The list Gil gave you in gold miners.

That's what's on the new yearly high list. Hope to see things better. The other part of that equation, we don't like seeing the most defensive recession-resistant areas leading because that tells you there's some trouble out there. And when I see United Rentals and Caterpillar acting, terribly, it's a worrisome sign. These are the most economically sensitive areas. But Coke isn't new highs. Why? Because it doesn't matter if we go into depression. You're going to go

drink your Coke zero, which by the way is a great invention. Better than Diet Coke, if he asked me. So we'll keep you up to date. Again, market was a hundred times better than a Dow down 527. The NASDAQ was down 20, but that even felt better. I do want to report Netflix reported after the close. They beat the number and the stock is up a nice little 30, 15, 17, about 30 bucks in the aftermarket. That's good news. But that's not near New Heights.

By the way, Netflix has been one of the names that we told you had great relative strength versus everything else out there in big tech and those type of stocks. but are they going to come and get that too when all said and done? If we have more legs to the downside, it doesn't matter. They get them all. We'll be watching.

Up next, what else happened in the world today? And then we're on an airplane. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit

that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

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With Gary Kulp. All right. So I don't know why Netflix reported after the close into a holiday weekend. That's weird. I don't know what to tell you. Anyway, it is up decently in the aftermarket. The QQQs are up a little bit, no big deal. But a lot of things happen today that potentially affect things. So Trump took on Jay Powell. He's pissed off at Jay Powell. Jay Powell yesterday said something Trump didn't like. Donald Trump, the president, wants him to lower interest. rates and blah, blah, blah. Trump threatened to fire him, even though I, who knows if he can fire him, but Trump came out and said, if I pushed him, I think he would resign. Here's the problem. First off, as you know, this is something I have covered for a very long time. I am no fan of Jay Powell. I am no fan of Janet Yellen. I am no fan of Bernanke before him. Bernanke started this nonsense, printing money and telling us, don't worry, it'll only be temporary. Meanwhile, it just ended up at $9 trillion bucks, even though it's backed off the sixth and change.

The insanity runs amok. But here's the problem. And I want you to listen carefully. And I've explained it a few times, but I've got to tell you, as I explain it and listen back to myself, I don't even know if I understand it. There are moments in time. If Jay Powell lowers rates, real rates go higher.

What? What the hell you're talking about, Gary? Jay Powell controls the Fed funds rate. When he's not printing money and rigging the whole bond market, which he's not doing any more as of now, he moves the Fed funds rate up and down, and he's been lowering them recently. The Fed funds rates, you can go look at up what it means.

It's what banks charge and lend to each other and all that crap, but what matters most is the 10-year yield because that's your mortgages. Your mortgages will move up and down based on the 10-year yield. And by the way, that is the free mark of investors, traders, and speculators. Big, medium, and small versus the Fed funds rates is something, one man's decision with a bunch of adults that sit around in the Eccles building in Washington, D.C. And when I use the word dalt, I shouldn't be putting down dolts. Anyway, if the real market of interest rates believe Jay Powell to be making the wrong move by lowering rates because there is something out there in the realm of inflation, the 10-year yield will go higher even though Jay Powell has lowered rates.

And guess what? As Jay Powell lowered rates from 5 and a quarter down to where he is right now, 4 and a quarter, the 10-year yield. yield went from 3-7 to 4-5. That's what I'm talking about. And I can promise you, in a very fragile economy, if the 10-year yield backs up from here, that is not good news now. Rightfully so, President Trump's saying, but oil prices are down. And inflation's come down. You can move down.

I'm not so sure of that. because the 10-year yield right now is 4.333. Jay Powell's at 4.5. I'm not so sure he has room, and I'm not so sure the market would be happy. And President Trump is doing what most presidents don't do, is out loud yapping at the Fed because supposedly the Fed is independent. Now, let me state for the record,

I believe Jay Powell was playing politics yesterday. I believe it was by no. accident he said what he said about tariffs and stuff he should not have even brought it up that was politics since Trump has been nasty to him j pal can't be nasty back but he can certainly send the message that what that's what he did yesterday that was wrong on his part and actually hit the market late in the day but the market came right back up what would happen if j powell resigned i have no clue the price The problem is if Trump puts in one of his buddies, that would suck.

It really would. Because as I said, the Fed shouldn't even, we shouldn't even have one. But if you start aligning it with what's happening in the White House, they're going to act in their own best political interests, and that is bad, bad news. So, I don't know, game on. It's a cavalcade of characters, and it's pretty much nauseating. But that is the story, and I just wanted to let you know what the story is. And actually, there's nothing I like about Powell.

But I think him saying yesterday, we can take our time on lowering rates. And that's basically what he said. I think that's the right move. I think it's the right move. They're already floating other people as the next head of the Fed, guy named Kevin Warsh. I think Trump better be careful what he wishes for because Jay Powell is a dove, this guy Kevin Warsh, is not. He's a hawk. And he will tend to keep rates up because he does not like bubbles. So we'll see. I don't know how it's going to play out, but I must tell you it nauseates me

that it's so noisy out there and it doesn't stop. Trump was also saying today, oh, we're going to deal this and deal that and they have no deals. And as I told you, any deal is going to be no big deal. Will China be a big deal? Yeah, that'll be a little bigger deal, but all these other countries? We'll see. Just remember, trade deals are just that. They're going to oversell it. The market will figure it out.

If they do cut something, we'll get a pop in the market. That'll be it. And then we'll see where the market decides to go. If the economy heads south, bad. If we can get some stabilization, good. As of right now, 80, 90% of the market remain in downtrends. The big bull market right now is gold. Little bullish markets in those defensive areas.

When I say that, they really haven't been going up that much, but they're holding up great versus a ton of stuff that has been absolutely freaking trashed. And I'm always amazed when I see somebody on the TV say, I'm buying the dip. and I look at the stock and I see it's down 50%. Welcome to our world. That all said, we want to thank Gil for being on today. Tomorrow, Best of Gary, you have a great three-day weekend.

Those are celebrate Easter. Hey, happy Easter. And when you get home, do like you do. And we're going to be doing a lot of that this weekend. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise stay will, be well. I'm heading for JetBlue. until Monday. Have a great one. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes

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