Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The noisy week in review [06.06.2025]
Episode Date: June 6, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk
Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum.
Your host, a thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen,
happy that you are listening. It is Friday. January 6th.
January 6th, June 6, 2025.
Do you know why I said January?
Because I'm sitting here not paying attention.
I am watching the Novak Djokovic match with Janik's sinner in the semis.
And, okay, back on the market.
Hey, in case you don't know, there's a serious talk on everything that affects you.
We'll do the markets.
And we have a lot to say about the markets today.
We hope you listen.
We'll do the economy.
Your job, your industry.
We'll do the debt and deficits and the too big, not so beautiful bill.
And all the other crap that goes along with it.
And whatever else comes to mind.
And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com.
We will also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on X, you should.
And if you like to email me, just be nice.
But when you email me, come with ammo.
Come with facts.
Don't come with BS.
Come with facts.
When we talk to you about the debt and deficits,
we get a little back and forth from people,
but come with facts.
And we tell you exact numbers.
Come with facts.
Don't come back with, oh, Gary, this, and you Trump derangement syndrome and this and that.
Come with facts.
What we don't want to hear are the hacks, meaning if your side does everything wrong, you say they do everything right no matter what.
If the other side does everything wrong, you jump all over them.
If the other side does everything right, you don't say anything.
Remember here, we have a simple thought process.
We can't stand any of them.
37 trillion, going quickly to 40 trillion, says it all.
It shouldn't be that difficult.
But we start with the markets.
And out of the box today, we had a job number.
The peeps were out there trying to tell us the jobs number was really good.
It was okay.
In fact, the estimates were very low, so to beat it was easy.
We've been averaging 200,000 plus.
They did 130.
But on the other end, we're losing all the government jobs.
Just remember, Joe Biden lived off the government.
they were hiring people left and right in the government,
and it was going on the job's numbers.
Remember, Joe Biden's four years was one big gigantic con job
of debt deficits and all kinds of lies and fevery, not to mention,
God knows how many people came through the border.
So, the market, for whatever reason, opened up strong and finished strong.
Simple as that.
We can pick a few things out not so great,
but all we can tell you,
it opens strong and it finished strong.
And there are a few things of note,
and we want you to listen carefully.
Number one, if,
if the old highs get taken out,
that'd be big news.
what do going through old highs do?
Well, it attracts more money.
It attracts more money out of the big institutions
because everybody is in the money.
Everybody is making money.
It's simple as that.
And as I'm looking at the indices,
there's still a little bit of ways.
But what I did like this week,
they got above the prior three weeks high.
high in spite of what we got out of DC this week, the best news for me is new yearly highs,
they're not a lot.
But you know what happens if things improve and we actually do break out?
They're going to be a crap load of new yearly highs and you jump all over.
And we get more legs to the upside.
Simple as that.
I would like to come out today and tell you I have something negative.
to say but when it comes to stocks the usual the housing stocks are still weak other areas are
still weak though they've been coming on and you want to just accentuate where the
strength is the other part of the equation today somewhat weirds me out the 10-year yield
was up big today 1.16 to 4.510 in the past that would knock the
market down. So how is the market having a strong day-to-day with yields very much spiking?
Well, there's a thought process of that means economic strength. That is a pretty sound thought
process that yields are going up because of economic strength. And as I have said to you,
there is no doubt my mind that this quarter is going to be 3% plus.
3% plus in GDP.
But it's going to come from what happened the last quarter.
So we'll just keep paying attention.
I like what we're seeing.
Today also something else is in effect.
Some of the mega caps, even the weakest mega caps,
had a very strong day.
Weak Google was up five in change today.
week sales force.com and I mean very weak in the Dow up seven and a half bucks today, 2.8%.
Amazon, as we told you, we thought that was ready to make a move, was up 2.7% today.
Apple, the weakest of the week, was up 2.3% today.
Let me make sure I get that right.
That would be correct.
The other part of the equation we want you to know is the big banks.
No, they have not broken above a certain range that I am watching right now, but they're getting close.
Let me give you some examples.
If Goldman Sachs can break above $621, if JP Morgan can break above $269 and change,
if Bank America can break above 45.15.
Notice what I'm doing for you here.
We're actually given you specific numbers
that if price gets above,
it would be good stuff.
Morgan Stanley, how about 13305?
So if those banks go top side,
even better. We're also seeing better action. Remember, I was complaining for a long while
about the private equity companies like Evercore and KKR and some others. Well, they're starting to set up
also for better. So just letting you know, we are very top heavy on the big indices.
I have to throw another thing in. I'm probably going to jinx it. The Russell
2000. I believe we told you about this yesterday. The Russell 2000 broke above the last three months range. In March, I'm going to give you the exact numbers. 2110 in March. It hit 2115 in May. Close the 2131 today. That's small cap 2000.
and stocks. Less liquid, but looks like they're going to be on the move too, I think, here. I'm
probably jinx in it, as we told you, we tried it a couple of times last year and failed both
times. The IWM is the best exchange traded fund for the Russell. So that's good news. And then
there's the midcaps. They have not gone topside yet. A symbol for that would be M-D-Y. But they're
getting close also. So on the day, the Dow up 443, S&P up 61, NASDAQ 231, NASDAQ-21, NASDAQ-214, transports even up 237, and you know how weak they've been. So good day. Advanced the clients, pretty darn good and improved throughout the whole day. Was there any not-so-great things? Well, I can tell you, Broadcom was down 13 bucks today on their earnings. It opened
up, only down about five or six, but kept getting sold off.
Didn't affect the semis, though. They were up today.
Up next, we'll keep delving into the markets.
And much more, I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge.
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Motive?
Um, they're Reese's.
What was that going to do?
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I'm going to give you another financial, American Express, a move above, let's call $303.65.
That would be just another big name.
And by the way, that one's in the Dow.
So just letting you know.
whatever is doing the trick is doing the trick
our markets are setting up for higher
and how do we know this
because pullbacks have been nominal
they haven't lasted long
they have been bought up
and that is with some not so
great news
it was somewhat of a newsy week again
somewhat a wild week
on the good news front
is they keep telling us how great the deals are going to be and we're going to talk to this,
whatever and that.
I must tell you, it's not about losing patience, but I always worry, what do we tell you about
the boy who cried wolf?
They told us two weeks ago this week.
They told us the beginning of this week, this week, that they were going to be announcing
deals and there's no deals.
They also told us the United Kingdom was a trade deal.
No, it wasn't.
they said the European Union
was it no it wasn't
that's not a trade deal
so let's hope they are not snowing us
from a bunch of people that
are pretty good at snowing us
that's going to be
big time watched in the weeks ahead
I do hear that on June 9th
our trade people are going to meet with
the Chinese trade people
and we'll see how that goes
I got a lot of questions
from all you.
So we're going to do some question and answer time here
on some individual stuff.
The first one was, and the biggest one was Tesla.
Because in case you didn't know, Tesla,
let's see what it did yesterday.
Tesla closed at 332 the day before
and finished at 284, was as low as 273.
So down about 48 bucks.
Today, Tesla finished up 11.
What do I think?
Well, I don't know the outcome on the TIF.
The president was threatening to take away subsidies and contracts and all kinds of stuff.
I just don't know.
What I do know is, as I look at the stock, technically, it's a mess.
It trades like crazy.
Insiders are selling, and their card numbers stink.
I can use the word stink.
The car numbers stink.
The talk of the town on Tesla from the analysts is the robotaxis and robots.
and things like that.
Well, I think there's a lot of prayer going on for that.
If there wasn't some of that,
I think the stock would be $150 right now.
And I mean that.
It closed at $2.95.
Just on the cars alone.
Just on the cars alone.
We're not going to tell you what to do.
You get to decide.
It was up today.
Finished up a little less than 11.
and did hit a high up 22 and could not hold it,
and we'll see what next week brings.
We'll get into the tussle a little bit later on the show.
We also got a bunch of questions on Palantir.
Well, in case you don't know, the story goes,
Palantir has a decent amount of business from the government.
And there's been a big article out this week
that the Republicans are pissed off
at the company.
They've been accused, and we don't know if it's true or not, of taking down all our data,
that they know all of us and our names and Social Security, all that kind of crap.
So the stock got hit pretty darn good yesterday, back up 6% today.
What I can tell you is it's a little bit above the highs of February,
and it's a very wide-swinging range bound over the last.
for five weeks, got back up above an important moving average today, but still in range.
But that was a pretty darn good day.
Best way I can explain, Palantir.
We're also getting questions on, you know what we get the questions on, right?
What's hot?
That's what we get the questions on.
So the latest little hotness was an IPO that came out.
Circle Internet Group.
I don't know what price the deal was.
I should check that out.
But it's Enfuego.
And I'm about to look what the price was for the IPO.
Do do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do.
It'll come up any second, I promise, I swear.
Circle.
$31 IPO opens at $69, closes it $107 today after hitting $123.
I guess they're into this stable coin, digital currency, this, that, and the other thing.
I don't know.
Numbers look good this quarter.
People are asking about it.
I just don't know.
I don't have an answer for you.
Anytime an IPO comes out like this, we put it on our screen and we'll pay attention to it and see what comes of it.
But we haven't touched it because we can't figure out exactly what the hell they do.
But I will figure it out by the weekend.
Symbol C-R-C-L.
Needo.
And we get the usual questions on the nuclear because it's getting hot.
and the quantum because it's hot,
and we'll just tell you the same thing over and over again.
They're acting well, they're being bought.
A lot of them have no sales.
So just careful.
If they get unhot, they'll all go back to where they came from,
and you'll lose your butt.
Simple as that.
And it's interesting how so many have no sales in that area.
But boy, oh boy, they light up like a pinball machine.
And I do see some of them have six and seven billion dollar market caps with no sales.
How many stocks have we talked about throughout the years with no sales that ended up going back down 90%.
All of them.
Maybe this one's different.
Maybe quantum is the big thing and nuclear is the big thing.
but somehow I think big companies are going to benefit companies with no sales.
I'm not so sure of that.
So just letting you know.
Gold, rough day today.
Strong dollar.
Range bound.
I think four or five weeks ago I said I thought it was going to go rangebound.
That's exactly what's happened.
The gold miners broke out and tucking back in because of it.
Up next, more on the markets.
News of the day.
News of the week.
this is the one only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions
you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist,
Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues
we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating,
chronic stomach aches.
Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach
cake every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you
should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation plus some fast.
Fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
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Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds.
Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you.
Hello.
Look, I'm not here to judge.
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think I'm not 100%. Let me just say, I don't know if they have bottomed or not, but they're
certainly trying, and that's the oil stocks. They are so much weaker than the rest of the market,
but they are tone is better, and it's certainly helped. They have been an anchor on the big
indices. Now they are a little bit of a help. And by the way, I hear some of the smaller oils are in
the Russell 2000.
So I just want to let you know about that.
I mentioned the big banks,
the semiconductor stocks,
in spite of Broadcom,
were actually up today,
but I do believe there's work to be done.
But some of the equipment guys that are important,
like KLAC,
moved above a little range.
that's open to let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks
do not forget that in the third week of July comes earning season
and that's where we are up earlier by an hour or two
and done working an hour or two going through numbers
but more importantly going through guidance and then most importantly
going through the reactions because we've seen good earnings sold off
We've seen bad earnings bought up.
You just don't know where it's going to come from.
We're always careful about playing right before earnings.
I'm always amazed.
Somebody upgraded Broadcom yesterday.
An analyst.
I'm like, what does it matter with these people?
Anyway, upgraded it and stock was down 13 today.
I don't understand people
why they would upgrade a stock
the day of earnings
you got to be Karnak the Magnificent
to know
what a reaction is going to be
on earnings report
for me I think it's movie a stupido
well what can I tell you
moving forward
what are the wild cards
well we have
discussed this
quite a few times.
So let's do some ifs.
If the president decided to go back to the maniacal tariffs,
I believe the markets will crash.
No, crash.
There is thought process, though, that every time the market gets hit,
that he will change his mind.
Well, that's what the motive.
operandi has been, we'll see. But if he did, I think it could be a problem. That's still a wild card
that's out there. And we do not want you to forget of very importance that the president did not tell the truth
when he told the world that tariffs are paid by other countries.
He actually undercut his own, not telling the truth,
by going after Walmart for raising prices.
In case you do not know, tariffs are a tax
on the companies and the businesses that bring in the product,
paid to the Treasury,
and then decision made on whether to put it upon the consumer who would be the buyer of that product.
Do not forget this.
That is why the markets crashed.
The markets crashed because they were going to tariff every freaking country
and some big tariffs on some places where there are companies that get 97% of their
product from, like apparel, and sneakers. That's why you saw companies. Let's see, I'm going to
pull one out of the bag. How about on holdings? On N-O-N. 64 down to 34, sports shoes they sell.
And the list goes on and on and on. The good news is the crash made them change their
whole stance. And of course, the people that back them have already forgotten it. They're trying
to give it cover. We will not give it cover because if he ever goes back to it, all hell is going
to break loose again. That will be a wild card. This week, do we have another wild card in the
not too big, not so beautiful bill? Well, I'm not so beautiful. Well, I'm not.
a couple of things. If the bill passes, I don't think it's a big deal near term. It's just going
to be another $2 trillion a year of debt. Longer term, there'll be repercussions. But I don't
think near term would be. The bill sucks. The Republicans are conning their own people that voted
for them. They're using the excuse of, oh, growth will cure everything, but that's not the problem.
Growth will increase receipts to the Treasury. It's the size of the government and the yearly spending
of the government. That's the problem. Republicans for four years whined and complained about Biden,
supersizing, debt deficits, and the yearly government spending.
Republicans are adding to it and lying about it.
Their favorite line is we're cutting $1.6 trillion over 10 years.
That's after increasing it $20 trillion.
You're catching my drift?
They are liars.
and I would say it to every one of their faces.
And you, all, that were also railing against Biden, should be pissed off from all of them.
They are going to grow the government to where it's doing $8 trillion, $9 trillion a year,
of spending $10 trillion.
The size of our government is going to be up 75% from 2019 in the next year.
And what really irks is what a wonderful opportunity they had here to be heroes.
And they have given us the middle finger.
Those that care about the future of our children and their children,
you were just given the middle finger by the party that promised to do something about it
and are now playing three card money with it.
and I am guaranteeing you
if this bill passes
the next year we're going to have a
$2.5 trillion deficit
$2.5
if nothing changes
now we can get better growth
gee gosh it'll only be
$2.2 trillion deficit
you catch in my drift
and believe me
we take no joy
in any of this.
Rand Paul is our hero.
He's speaking up.
There's a couple of others are heroes,
but they're being treated like outsiders
by the people really run in the show.
Imagine people that have an interest
in debt and deficits
and the balancing of their,
checkbook. They're the ones that are being told to us that they're the bad guys. We know
different. Not opinion. You can't argue numbers. That said, they'll just be more debt.
Up next, we'll take you to the weekend. This is the one only investor's edge.
the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't
even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health
with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues
we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach
aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle.
where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach kick every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,
a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Reese's peanut butter cups.
They go perfectly with music.
Podcasts.
And welcome back to the show.
Even nature sounds.
Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you.
Hello.
Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to.
I'm here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it.
Rises. Ashley, go back to the nature sounds. Nice. Yeah, that's really nice.
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One, two, ready, go.
Action!
Investors Edge with Gary Culpa.
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
You know, I forgot to talk about one other question.
I've been getting a lot of recently.
And don't I think there's great value in marijuana stocks?
Really?
I don't know where that's coming from
because then I decided to look at some of the marijuana stocks
and they really haven't moved.
Let this be a lesson.
Back in, I don't know, what was it, 18 and 19,
these things were hyped like there's no tomorrow.
And what did we say to it?
We told you at the time, be careful, be careful, be careful.
Canopy growth has gone from $600 down to $1.70.
That's just one of them.
Do I need to say any others?
Aurora Cannabis, $1,400 down to $5.72.
We were watching some of these marijuana stocks.
let's see how we can do this
54 million shares outstanding
on Aurora cannabis
and it was trading it
at the high
1400
catching my drift
well it only has a market cap
of 313 million dollars now
obviously it was worth a lot more
and obviously the stock is not performed.
Just remember the one plus one equals two syndrome.
It's the same thing we did with Beyond Meat.
With Rivian and all kinds of crazy valuations.
Rivian came public within a couple of days,
had a $180 billion market cap with no sales.
The market cap was almost as big as GM in Ford who had $2,000,
160 billion in sales. What did we tell you what happened to Rivian stock? Eventually, it did. Beyond meat.
Beyond meat, what did we tell you back then? How much proliferation? Notice the big word was there going to be in plant.
Well, how much? Well, the stock has gone from 200 and
Then 21 down to three.
And then back to the marijuana stocks.
It's just one plus one equals two.
You're competing with your cousin who lives three blocks away and doesn't charge your tax.
And his stuff is better.
And by the way, there's a big market for it.
But, nah, wasn't going to happen.
Too many companies sell in the same.
thing, we told you so. And we don't know what happens from here. We do remember every time
somebody passed legalization, they popped up for a little bit and then went right back down.
And we do know there's a market. I still remember when I was in Aspen, Colorado.
It was not too late, but the town was shutting down. And we were walking around and we saw one
store that had a ton of people online and we thought they'd probably sell an ice cream
with stuff no it was marijuana and man oh man it was like the ritz cartler marijuana the guy
was wearing one of these i don't know laboratory coats everything was placed so nice so there's a
market but the marijuana company's just no way so when we find fads and crazy
we let you know and right now we think the crazy is in quantum and nuclear but we don't know when
they'll stop we've seen plenty of stocks keep going and going and going before they
croaked but the bottom line is and very simply if they continue to have no sales
they will go back to where they came from on the week
The Dow was up 1.17%, not that much, but okay.
The S&P was up 1.5%.
The NASDAQ was up 2%.
The NASDAQ 100 was up 1.97.
I believe the semiconductors 5.88.
That be the big winner.
And I do believe the S&P is now up for the year.
It took to June to get it back up, and let's hope it stays up.
I think the Russell 2000 is still down about 5%.
I think the Dow is about flat and I think the NASDAQ's about flat on the year.
Give a take.
So good to be back.
We thank President Trump for getting rid of those moronic, imbecilic tariffs,
and let's hope they are not revisited or else.
There's an election next November.
Of course, the biggest question I got was the Elon Musk, Donald Trump, whatchamadugie?
I don't know.
Just sheer insanity.
A president threatening a person and his business.
Sorry.
Can't help you with that.
Elon Musk having an opinion that we have on the debt and the deficits.
We're cool with that.
So I'm glad we're under the radar here.
we're glad the president doesn't know me
because we're completely against what they're trying to do
with the size scope reach of government
the spending the debt and deficits of government
it's the same thing we complained about four years on Joe Biden
and we'll keep complaining about it on Donald Trump
if this thing gets passed
the hope is the Senate wakes up
and does better
anything is better on that end
you'll have a great weekend drive carefully and when you get home do like we do quite simple make sure
you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better
I promise they will be well thanks for joining and just remember we're on your side
peace out all good night this has been investors edge with Gary cult bomb on BizTalk to listen to past
episodes or to get in contact with Gary go to Gary k.com that's Gary kay.com
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