Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The nut house week in review [07.19.2024]
Episode Date: July 19, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Discussion (0)
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
Thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
Thankfully, it's Friday, July 19th, 2024.
I say thankfully,
because since last Thursday, I just believe the market's been a big pain in the arse.
And we'll get into that in a minute.
And if you do not know us, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.
We'll do markets, the economy, jobs, the election, scams, scams, shams, corruption.
You name it.
We cover it without any agenda, ulterior motive, or bias.
And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on X, you probably should follow us on X.
And if you'd like to email us, you just got to be nice.
So let's start with the markets.
We'll do the speeches in a few minutes because just,
so you know we have a very high threshold when it comes to the market and that's because as you
know we are ruthless and i mean that we are ruthless when it comes to not losing and we are ruthless
when it comes to not losing and we are ruthless because we follow very simply a roadmap a rule
sheet on a daily basis of looking for launching pads, turning into uptrends, breaks to the upside
out of range, and it hopes they will work. But sometimes they don't. I explained it yesterday.
A stock trading between 90 and 100 for six months and breaks above 100 goes to 107.
you're thinking we're good as gold, new range, and boom, in three weeks, it's back to 95.
That is what we call a failing move.
And that happens.
It's part of the business.
If every breakout worked, it would be just darn too easy.
So what we're very ruthless about is when things break out and fail, we get the hell out.
we don't sit around we recognize our winners are ahead of us and sometimes very big winners and as long as we keep losses small we are big time in the game we have always we haven't had a double digit loss in a stock i can't begin to tell you in how long and i mean that and just so you know with the most regulated industry out there i could not say that if not true but since last third
Thursday, just a wow, because what we have had is a tale of two cities, which may have not be starting to merge.
And the tale of two cities were simply for a very long time.
I was sitting on this show and telling you, boy, those seven stocks keep
going. And we would say to you on the show, that's all we own. Seven stocks at their highs made up
48% of the NASDAQ 100 and 33% of the S&P 500, which actually is more impressive. But they get to
that point because they get bought and over-owned and over-loved and over-leverage, leaving everything else
in the wake.
Until last Thursday, we were on this show saying to you, this area, that area, this area, that area, this area, that area, avoid.
If they wake up, we'll let you know.
Because what we do here is we adjust to what the market's yelling and screaming at us.
We believe the market has a voice.
and we believe the market has a big mouth.
Most people don't, and that's fine by us.
And due to the fact, we have big ears.
So last Thursday, they started to slaughter.
And when I use the term slaughter, I mean slaughter.
The areas that we're working best, artificial intelligence, semiconductors.
Mega Cap Tech, other tech, software.
But on that same day, the small caps, the midcaps, the midcaps, the transports, what we call stuff, economically sensitive, shot out, for lack of a better word, a cannon.
and for a few days went straight up.
Well, we're not willing to call it a day yet,
but for the record, they're worsening the semis,
the artificial intelligence,
the software, and that's another story,
we'll get to that in a bit,
but they're also pulling back
the stuff that shot out of a cannon.
So far,
I would call it a little worse than constructive pullback.
And by the way, that goes for the Dow.
But we all know with the Dow, just a couple of names can change the playing field.
And today, you had a couple of big weeners to the downside.
So just stunning.
That Thursday, we sold most of our tech.
Two days ago, we sold the last vestiges of our tech.
We told you so.
One of them was Apple with a, for us, we couldn't believe the gain.
And the other one was Amazon.
And we'll be patient.
Let them set up again.
The last time it took two to three months.
This time, we don't know.
We don't predict.
We don't have targets.
We don't have dates.
But we'll be paying attention.
All we can tell you, by the close of the day today, they worsen them.
How do I know?
They were down good, especially the semiconductors, which dropped below the 50-day moving average, for instance, the first time since April.
And that's the story, a pain in the rear market.
And I must tell you, since we didn't have any equities, we just had ETFs.
We had some little drawdowns, but very small because diversifying will drop low.
less than individual names.
And man, there was some real dislocations this week.
There was some good upside on earnings, but some pretty good dislocations.
Things like ASML Holdings, ASML croaked on their earnings report.
Domino's Pizza croaked on their earnings reports.
The semiconductor equipment makers went along for the ride.
with ASML Holdings.
And we'll just, again, be patient.
As I said, we're pretty good with our psychology.
This week was tiring.
It really was.
And had another rough day again today.
You had possibly a failed breakout in gold.
I don't know the news and somebody emailed me and said it has to do with
options related and how people are
who the hell knows
I just know it went above a range
and now tucked in we'll see what next week brings
though gold miners are acting better
but you know what's coming to the four
the crypto
Bitcoin got back above the 50 day
moving average today
after gaping up a few days ago
and we'll see where that goes
so that's a little bit of a
general on where the market is and what it's doing.
And when I tell you it's a pain in the rear, that means it's a pain in the rear.
Especially, man, those are very good moves in the small and midcaps.
And they may not be over, but the pullbacks a little bit more than I would like.
Next week will be another week.
and as always we shall let the market decide when wrong be wrong fast and small when right try to let them run
but in these markets how do you let them run up next what else and last night this is the one
only investors edge hi i'm gary colpom hosted a nationally syndicated radio show investors edge we're not
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
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Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
Welcome once again to Investors Edge.
So in case you don't know, I woke up this morning, and there was an outage.
Crowdstrike, the Major League Software Security Company, they were putting in an update,
and a bug hit the update and caused a defect.
and just blew things up.
And what we mean by that is, I get it, everybody got shut down.
Airlines, banks, brokers, tons of stuff, airlines,
canceling flights left and right.
And just so you know, the reason why that happens
is because of when you have delays of three hours,
And that's what really started.
Tons of delay.
Everything was delayed.
They shut down.
You can't get from point eight to point B, so you miss your connections.
And guess who else can't get from point A to point B?
The stewards.
Do they call them stewardesses these days?
I don't even know what they call everybody these days.
The stewards, the pilots.
So there was a lot of cancellations, a lot of all that.
when I got onto my platform this morning, I couldn't get on.
So I was worried that I could not do trades today, but got up at 9 o'clock.
But throughout the day, it was up and down.
Unfortunately, I don't have to do much trading today because the market, as we said, is a pain in the arse.
The repercussions, crowd strike was down $38 today.
due to the fact there is 243 million shares outstanding.
You take $38 that I'm about to do, 38 times 243.
You got 9.something billion loss of market cap.
I also notice like Elon Musk goes on X and says we are dropping CrowdStrike.
And I noticed Palo Alto Network stock was up today because of that.
I believe his last name is Kurtz, and I do believe he is one of the most George Kurtz, the CEO of CrowdStrike, and I hear he's one of the most popular CEOs out there.
I will hand it to him and give it to him. He went out quickly, saw him on TV, explained themselves, and everything possible.
And I guess things were working after two or three hours. But obviously the shareholder's paid a
price and there'll be as usual a class action lawsuit and all that funky stuff and boy oh boy glad i
wasn't flying today so that was that next so as you know i've always wanted two different candidates
for the presidency but it ended up being binary but the chalk now is Biden's going to be out
we predicted it months and months ago and last week we said by all
August 1st and then I'm thinking maybe by this weekend and now everybody's talking that
Biden's going to be out this weekend. But then Biden comes out and basically says, go screw yourself.
And basically what he was saying was go screw yourself to Pelosi and Obama. Just so you know
Obama what he does, he doesn't say anything. It gets leaked that Obama would like him out also.
And you don't hear Obama saying, no, I didn't say that. That means he did, he wants to. He wants
out there, a bunch of congresspeople, senators, are calling from in public to get out.
And Joe Biden came out, and I'm thinking he's with all this pressure from the Pelosi's,
and like, he's gone.
Well, he puts out something a couple hours ago, I'm going to be back on the campaigns,
who's done with the COVID, and we're going to win all that.
And I'm just thinking to myself, and as you know, I think the guy's a friend.
fraud. I think he has
marketed himself as a moderate,
his whole whatever, and soon as he
came into power, he makes
Bernie Sanders look like
Ronald Reagan. That's how
left this guy is with
everything he does.
I must tell you, if he stays in,
I've got to applaud him.
I've got to compliment him.
And this is not a thing on whether he wins or
lose and whether you're a Republican, you'd be happy,
and Trump wins or you'd be pissed off as a Democrat if he loses.
He's telling the head honcho top dog big chiefs of the Democratic Party,
I'm the freaking president, you can kiss mine.
Without saying that.
So if he ends up doing that and stays in, I give him all the credit in the world.
I actually think that would be quite amazing.
And you know what I think of some of those meatheads in the Democratic Party?
like Schumann Pelosi and the likes.
And I call it the Democratic Party.
It's really the Marxist party because they're freaking insane.
Trump did a speech last night.
And I got to tell you, in the middle of it, I fell asleep.
And I woke up and he was still going.
I thought I was dreaming.
For the record, if I'm doing a speech, I don't make it that long.
because making it long
I'm going to say
loses impact on the specifics
that's the way I look at it
and of course there'll be people that disagree
I loved
that they brought out
the I guess it's a helmet
and the uniform of the firefighter
one of the people that were killed
upon the attempt
an assassination. I love that. I loved
the beginning of his speech explaining how he felt about what happened.
I guess they call that the human sign.
I loved when he said to Hamas,
you better have those hostages release before I get in or else.
I haven't heard that from Biden.
I loved lower taxes, less regulations, open up drilling.
And just so you know, those who you think, oh, if they open up drilling is bad,
go look at how much they want to drill versus how much land there is,
and then take a pencil and go onto a football field
and go right onto the 50-yard line
and take the pencil
and just put a dot
into the middle of the football field.
Anyway, I thought
a lot of the speech was effective.
Just too long.
I don't think that's a negative, though.
And
away we go.
I don't love
big tariffs.
I think they suck.
I don't love
some of the creeps
that were at the Republican convention
like Paul Mavis.
Manifert, a convicted, fraudulent piece of crap.
Music, up next. We'll put a bow tie on it.
Thanks for being here, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
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This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium
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Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
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This episode is brought to you by Sprecker.
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We're listening to America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Let me continue with my love and hate.
I don't love some of the creeps that were at the Republican convention. Paul Manafort, he's a sleaze bag.
And there's a few others there. And you know who they are. You also do know, I believe, Trump was railroaded on most of these things. The thing in New York's a joke. And I say a joke in that that wouldn't even be investigated if it was a Democrat.
And at the best, it was a misdemeanor, and they made it into a felony.
But that's just my opinion.
And remember, I'm no fan of the guy, but I know railroading when I see it.
His first impeachment was a joke.
There was no first impeachment.
The second one, though, because of January 6, not so sure I'm against that one.
That January 6 crap was not good.
so you can see we don't have a bias
we just like right versus wrong
we believe in we the people
that's why we can't stand Biden at all
he'll sit there and tell you
oh the American people and we're behind you
we work for you it's just a complete
bald-faced lie
rules regulations fees fines
mandates taxes giveaways
debt deficit spending
control
gargantuan increase in the scope, reach, and control the government through all that.
That's what he did.
And the next thing he's going to try and do is confiscate wealth.
And then somehow I ended on Biden's list.
And they call me Dan.
I don't know how that happened.
So I said, you know, I'm going to keep getting.
I want to see what they have to say.
So Trump jokingly said last night, I need to buy votes.
So I got an email from Biden today.
You hear what Trump said about buying votes?
Well, what the hell do you think Biden's doing, buying votes, handing out our taxpayer dollars on other student loans?
Who is he trying a kid?
Remember what I have said?
And I mean it.
Biggest BS artist ever in the White House, and that comes after Trump was in the White House.
What a high bar.
So we'll see what I would have, let me just tell you, until three hours ago, I would have come on here and said to you, Biden will be out by Sunday.
Not even August 1st.
But he put out a note and said, basically, you all go screw yourself.
I'm the freaking president. Get me out.
That's basically what he's saying.
So we'll see how it plays out.
We know what we're going to get with Biden.
We don't know what we're going to get with Trump, but we do know we'll get lower taxes and less regulations, which is movie importante to us.
Everything else with him is a wild card because there were things he would say on Monday and say the opposite Tuesday.
You remember all that.
We were highlighting it.
If he wins, we will back him 1,000 percent and wish him well, and we'll try to become an advisor.
We'll reach out.
we're pretty smart here
a lot smarter than some of his advisors of the last few years
and certainly a lot smarter than any of Biden's advisors
because it's we the people
and if any of these politicians ever got that right
and ever got to that freaking point
not sure I have a lot of hope
of that ever happening
anyway that's a little bit on the thought process
on the speech where it's going
I think, again, I will applaud this man if he gives the big, you know what, finger to his own party and the party chieftains.
I'll applaud him.
What else is going on?
Going into the weekend, when you do some scans, go look at the I-B-I-T and the GBT, both are Bitcoin.
may be forming a real nice right side of about five-month trading range to possibly break out of.
And I have to tell you some of the other stocks about like Coinbase, C-O-I-N, setting up,
micro-strategy that psychopathic stock actually broke above at the close today.
The highs of May and June, and those were very close highs, 1735 and 1740.
finished at 1778 but just know that is one spastic can't say the words know what you're getting into
what else uh Netflix uh they reported earnings finished down nine dollars today almost 10 was down 40
and after hours yesterday was up 27 earlier today 678 let me see 45 excuse me was up 36
dollars today. Finish down 10. No thank you. In the Dow, Travelers, down 17. Travelers down almost
8%. An insurance company? What the hell? American Express in the Dow. Well, it was worse.
it was down at one point about 12 finished down 7
that roughed up
that was down 377 today
it didn't help that
Honeywell down 3 that was trying to break out
Amgen down
let me get the numbers right
I take it back Amgen wasn't down
Microsoft today
because of the outage was down 3
though was down 7 early
a visa down three and change in the Dow.
But the big story was American Express.
Oh, Caterpillar pulled back, eight bucks.
That had come straight up with those stocks in the last week.
Those three stocks really did the job on the Dow today.
During the week, it was like three stocks that did the job to the upside.
Remember United Health in the Dow.
United Health and the Dow, 65 points.
That's about 400 Dow points.
S&P down almost 40.
NASDAQ 144, NASDAQ 104, NASDAQ 1082.
The semiconductor index down another 169.
There's people blaming things that Biden and Trump said about semiconductors in China.
Okay.
Remember one of our main mantras.
It's not the news.
It's how things react to the news.
There have been plenty of times we receive what is considered to be bad news and things go up.
We have seen what's considered to be good news and things go down.
Or we can tell you whatever reaction to whatever it's reacting to, quite negative at this juncture.
The same people that have been bullish are staying bullish,
raising their targets as the stocks get slashed,
we'll let the market's opinion be 100% of our thoughts.
With no disrespect, 0% to somebody's opinion on what the market should do and where it should be.
A simple reason why, the market matters all.
opinions matter not it's quite simple in our rulebook so tough day today and just a wicked
wicked last seven days starting with the Thursday ago wicked where it goes next week
don't know. I will promise you some stocks will change to the upside, some to the downside,
because we got a bazillion earnings reports coming up. It really amps up in the next couple of
weeks. And I do believe we have a Fed meeting at the end of July, yay. And I do believe there is a
chance of a Fed cut this go around because the next Fed meeting,
would be right before the election.
And they tell us they're not political.
And I gather they're not going to want to look political.
Nevertheless, they're behind anyhow.
Nevertheless, 10-year yields at 4.24.
They're at 5.25.
Up next, and we'll think of something.
This is the one only investor's edge.
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travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every
purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over
1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply
access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading
condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,
explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk
right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show,
upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it.
everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for,
well, more microphones.
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You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In The Gester's Edge.
With Gary Culpa.
All right.
I'm winded.
Next week, I'm just going to very quickly, just whatever pops out to me.
Earnings.
Monday before the Open, Truist, the old SunTrust in Verizon and the Dow, and SAP, the big German software company.
After the close, let's see if anything New Corps, big St.
Steel, NXP Semiconductor.
Tuesday,
before the open, let's see what I got for you.
Coke in the Dow.
Danerher.
Freeport McMoran, Copper and Gold.
GE Aerospace.
General Motors, genuine parts.
Kimberly Clark, Lockheed Martin,
Moody's, Packar.
Pulty Holmes. Sharon Williams.
I hear they have nice paint.
Spotify.
UPS.
After the close.
You ready?
Google.
It's now alphabet.
I don't know why they change names.
Canadian National Rail, Capital One,
Chub,
Seagate Tech, Tesla,
and earnings supposed to be down pretty good.
Texas Instruments.
Visa in the Dow.
Wednesday before the opening.
Amphanol, AT&T, Boston Scientific,
checkpoint software,
CME Group, Evercore, Fiserve,
group one auto
KKR
KBR
Old Dominion
Freight
Silicon Labs
Taylor Morrison Holmes
Thermo Fisher
Scientific
What a great name
After the close
Ameriprice Financial
Chipotle
And boy oh boy
That stock's been hit hard
since the 541 stock split
We warned you
Big stock splits
and what's the reasoning?
Well, that means the stock's already had a run.
Ford, IBM in the Dow, KLA Tencore, Las Vegas Sands.
By the way, the casinos were down this morning because of that outage.
Meritage homes, Molina Health, O'Reilly Automotive, Raymond James, Service Now, Terodyne, United Rentals, Waste Management, Wharfill, Windham Hotels.
Thursday before the open, American Airlines.
By the way, we're skipping a ton, just going through names, Harley Davidson, Honeywell,
Dr. Pepper, Lazzard, Masco, Mohawk, NASDAQ, Northrop Grumman, Pool Inc, I think they already worn.
Southwest Air, Sestium Microelectronics, Tractor Supply, Union Pacific.
After the closed Thursday, I just mentioning Boston.
beer for the sake of mentioning Boston beer.
Decker's Outdoor, Eastman Chemical, Juniper,
lending tree, LPL financials,
Friday, 3M in the Dow,
Colgate, Charter Communications, Franklin Resources,
T-Roe Price, that's enough, right?
And by the way, the next week is Apple, Amazon,
and a few other of those tidbits.
and as you know we work double hours, and we work a lot of hours now, double hours when it comes to earning seasons before and after the market open and close.
In the news, this just stuck out, so I printed it out.
State Farm Insurance is seeking permission from the California State Government to increase insurance rates as much as 50%.
homeowners by 30% condo policies by 36% and renters policies by 52%.
What the hell is going on with California?
And why do they keep electing these same dofaces?
Dufuses.
I can fix California.
You give me six months.
Get rid of the gas tax.
Lower the state tax.
Incentivize business.
To come there instead of leave.
What a concept.
But no, cash straight the customer, the consumer, and business there until they're faced down and getting the hell out of here and going to Texas and Florida.
That's what we mean by control freaks, kids.
Control freaks.
As we head into the weekend, just letting you know, are you ready?
These are the books we recommend in no particular order.
any book by William O'Neill
There's a book
How to Make Money Selling Stock Short by William O'Neill
and our good friend Gil Morales
The Battle for Investment Survival by
Gerald Loeb
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by
Edward Lefei
Market Wizards books by Jack
Swager. I think there's a few of them out
there at this point in time
this is just for starters
Nicholas Darvis
How I Made 2 Million in the Stock
market. Favorite books. Liars Poker by Michael Lewis. No really. Liar's Poker. Lyers
Poker. The Millionaire Next Door. I forgot the name of the person who wrote the book.
Teaches you how millionaires became broke, but people making 50 grand a year became millionaires.
Trader Vic by Victor Spirondio. There's two of them.
them trade of vic and trade of vic too winning on wall street by marty swig the secrets of
profiting in bull and bear markets by stan weinstein and we'll throw in mark minnevini trade like a stock
market wizard and lastly any book by john boyke b o i k especially the monster stock books
that give you examples of monster stocks.
I'm sure I have missed a few,
but these are the books.
By the way, I've read them all,
as well as many others,
if you want to know about markets
and how they work from some of the best.
Figured, good time to go through that.
You know why?
I'm looking to my left in there on a shelf.
And by the way,
I also have the ripped books by Clarence Bass.
He's one of these guys that just ripped.
He wrote a bunch of books throughout the years.
He's much older right now.
Hey, that all said, I'll be on Fox News tomorrow in between 10 a.m. and noon, probably
a 10 a.m. hour.
Check that out.
We'll be talking whatever's going on in the world.
Have a great weekend, drive carefully.
And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
and they will feel better, you will feel better, I promise.
I'm going to take a nap.
Peace out, all.
Thanks for joining.
Bye, bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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