Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The nut house week in review [09.26.2025]

Episode Date: September 26, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Friday, September 26th, 2025. Hope you're having a good day. Hope you're going to have a good weekend. As always, we have lots to cover. This is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, indictments, scams and shams and corruption.

And every now and then we'll do travel. And every now and then we'll do my fantasy football league. I'm watching the Ryder Cup as we speak. And I have to tell you, Europe is just playing better than the United States right now. And whatever else comes to mind. Ladies and gentlemen, we have to start out with some sad news. the wonderful, magnificent, fabulous Portland Money Radio Station, KBNP is going away.

We want to thank Keith Lyons and the staff for being so kind and so generous to me and this show. We will never forget that. They have been there for us for years now, for years. And we get such a great response from the citizens of Portland. And we'll see if we can pick up something else. We don't know. But in the meantime, GaryK.com, we post a show every night.

We posted on our ect. feed. It'll be on the YouTube Biz TV channel, other podcast apps. And we are in the midst. We're going to do, let me put it this way. Right now it's a radio show. We are putting together this little studio. You're going to see me doing the show with a mic. And I think we're going to post some things like charts of stocks or the markets as need be as we're going to forward. Give us a little bit of time. We'll get that done. For all the people of Portland, Keith Lyons, and all the staff of that radio station, all my best, great health and happiness to all of you. Things keep moving along, right? Tidbits. As usual. As usual.

Since we are multifaceted here, we just don't tell you what's stock to buy, what stock to sell, what stock the shorter cover, which we don't do anyhow. We just tell you what we think and you get to decide. We do everything else. We think it all matters. We are politics, markets economy. Economy, markets politics, markets, politics, economy. all interspersed. We never used to have to do that,

but all the interlopers that have taken us the 37 trillion of debt and are as corrupt as corrupt can be, we've had no choice. So we'll continue. So interesting as usual, most of the input we have been getting from you, our audience in the last day, nothing to do with the market.

We are all asking, Gary, what do you think of this indictment of this guy Comey. Well, we like talking about because it does matter because the psyche of the president matters, the thought process of a president matters, the movements of a president matters. First off, in case you didn't know, he put on more tariffs overnight. The good news is the market didn't give a crap. That is very good news because back in April, the market crashed off of his tariffs.

Now, I will tell you, I think there's a little bit of disbelief that the tariffs will stay here for too long of a time. I don't know. But he put it on, I guess, let's see, what tariffs did he do this time? Home furniture, I believe, as well as some other things. You can go look that up. And as you know, we are against tariffs. They are a tax on you and I and businesses and the like. The good news is the market did not care.

And in fact, the market had another good day today. And as we've told you, the markets do well when you have massive government spending and debt and deficits, believe it or not, because that goes towards whatever. When the money supply skyrockets, the market loves that. And you've got the money supply skyrocketing. and I can go on and on. Valuations are up in the trees. There's been a lot of froth and speculation. I'm going to talk about concentration in the market in a few minutes.

But all we were getting asked about was James Comey. So instead of me giving you an opinion on the indictment because I'm no lawyer, I'm just going to tell you how this came about. And you get to decide. And by the way, anything I'm about to say is not opinion. This is all reported. And this has all been posted by the president. So they were looking into James Comey for lying to Congress.

There was an investigation. And they go through these motions of prosecution and grand juries and this, that, and the other thing. And what happened was the head prosecutor came out and said there is no case. There's no case. We cannot take this to trial. We would not win. The president put out a post blasting his own justice department. He then installed one of his personal attorneys as the prosecutor.

And then he got indicted. This is all fact. And then the president put out a post that this guy's a dirty cop and justice is being served. And so did what's her name, Pam Bondi put out the same thing. guess what we'll leave it at that you get to decide the president said this has nothing to do with retribution or nothing to do with revenge we'll let you decide on that i just gave you the facts that's all and there's no disputing those facts they don't even dispute those facts and we'll see how it plays out now why would this happen well in case you don't know they went

after the president with a fury. As I told you, those cases against the president, now I'm giving you an opinion, were all a bunch of bull crap. All a bunch of bull crap. There were scams. Do you remember when the woman from New York did a whole thing against him

and said Moralago was only worth $20 million and he lied to get loans and this and that? I got news for you. Moralago on the low end is worth a half a billion dollars based on Palm Beach. And then the case files that were in his house and stuff, Biden did the same thing. Oh, but Biden didn't do, you know how the media is. Oh, but just because Biden didn't do this or said that, but let's indict Trump.

And of course, we believe also the impeachments, especially the first one was a joke, was laughable. It was just the Democratic, whatever they had the power, can do whatever the hell they want, so they impeached them. Now, as you know, we completely disagree with the January 6th crap. We do believe that is at the foot of the president. Not that he wanted them to do what they did. I don't believe he's guilty of that, but it wouldn't have happened if he accepted the election results. But the people that did that at the Capitol,

they should have gone to jail, and we don't like the fact that he did a blanket pardon. So as you can see, we have no agenda, alteria motive, or bias. We just call it right down the middle. We don't care who the hell it is. Anyway, we'll see how this plays out. It's not thrilling to see. We think there's more important fish to fry out there, but, you know, whatever.

Benjamin Netanyahu spoke today at the United Nations, that racist, anti-Semitic suck fest at the U.N. and a bunch of delegates at the UN walked out on his speech, yes. Those same delegates who would give a standing ovation to the Yachts who runs North Korea or the Castro's or any one of the other miscreants out there. Let's walk out on Benjamin Netanyahu. Right. Sure. Anyway, that happened today.

And Benjamin Netanyahu did his saying the same thing. They're tired. Enough. Remember when we told you we went to Israel for the first time? We had to go in bomb shelters five times. We had the Iron Dome take out a missile above my head at two in the afternoon on a sunny day at the Carmel Market parking lot in Tel Aviv. Imagine whatever city you're in right now. And let's think about 30 miles away, somebody lobs a missile over your head. What would you do? Do you know what Israel did? and the time I was there and all those missiles were lobbed over the head, nothing. They laughed it off. But the October 7th, sorry, you're going to get hit, and that's what they're doing. Up next, we'll do the markets. And much more.

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Hey, thanks of being with us today. By the way, one last thing.

You know what I love doing now. I actually turn on CNN and MSNBC to see their reactions when something like this thing would Comey happen. And remember with the Charlie Kirk thing also about freedom of speech and Jimmy Kimmel and that stuff. Just remember the media. We want to make sure you know this. Jimmy Kimmel, taken off the air. Oh, freedom of speech.

How dare they? How dare they? How dare they? How dare they? How dare they? When Tim Allen was taken off? Hey, great. When Muzan was taken up?

Hey, great. When Trump was taken off Twitter before Elon Musk brought it out. Hey, great. They didn't give a crap about democracy then of freedom of speech. Just remember. It's only selective freedom of speech. You got that? I want you to remember that.

It's only selective freedom of speech. If they like you, say whatever the hell you want. If they don't like you, clam up. Don't ever forget that. Just remember, these people don't give a crap about you. You are nobody to them. Their job is to calm the living crap out of you into believing what they are telling you.

You have to know that. You should know. that. You know why? Because they do it in plain sight. It's the funniest crap. Do you know on X, they will have side by side one of these morons on MSNBC talking about freedom of speech on Jimmy Kimmel and taking them off the air. And then they show a video going back three years when somebody on the right was taken off and saying, deserve it to take off. Deserved to take off. Yeah, yeah. You just remember all that. It is so important and so vital going forward that you know who are the miscreants out there and who just BS is the living hell out of you.

And unfortunately, it's most all of them. Okay. We're all done with that. Electronic Arts, there's talk about them going private and stocks up 25 bucks today. And it raised the price of other stocks in the group. Electronic Arts, in case you don't know, is gaming software. and content for game consoles. You know what that is, right?

It's that thing that your sons and daughters are ignoring you all day long while they're playing those games. That's what it is. And by the way, I don't even know what games are what. I'm looking right now. Madden 26.

College football, 26. NHL, 26. FC26. What is Sims? Dragon Age. Yeah, whatever. Parents, get your kids reading books on entrepreneurship, inspiration. Get them off the games. Just my opinion. The Dow was up 300 today. The S&P 38, NASDAQ 99, NASDAQ 100, 106. Russell 2000 was up 1%. The transport. not so much advanced declines were good but you would think better but okay but a few important notes today you had a lot of how do i put this if and i wrote this down if goldman sacks in the dow went up uh 1% um it be eight bucks

it would be about 54 Dow points. If Goldman Sachs went up 1%, it would be about 54 Dow points. If Verizon went up 1%, it would be 3 points, maybe 2. So if the higher price stocks are moving up 1%, and the lower price stocks are moving up 1%, and the lower price stocks are moving down 1%. If everything was equal weighted, the Dow wouldn't do anything. But the higher price stocks, it's all price weighted. And you got a bunch of that today.

I'm not trying to poo-poo a Dow up 300. And the fact is the Dow had a very good breakout at 45,000. A very good breakout. In fact, and I think we did state it to you, The Dow hit 45,000 in the late November last year, 45,000 in January, almost 45,000 early July, 45,000 in late July, finally broke out about, let's see, one, two, three, four, five weeks ago, retested it a week later, and now it's on the move. It's only up about two and a half percent since the breakout. The Dow is not like a penny stock that go up 100 percent in three days. It's a slow boat, but that's a pretty darn good move for the Dow.

So that's number one. Number two is the Russell 2000 broke out, but it's tucked in a little bit, but still looks pretty darn good, just letting you know. And that's 2000 stocks. They call them small caps, but I can promise you, there's no small caps anymore. Small caps now are the old large caps. the best way I can put it. Gold had another very strong day talking about trend and do not forget, we told you that a breakout of the 18 weeks on gold would be a real good breakout. That was at 318 on the GLD. It is 3.46, 1, 2, 4 weeks later. And the gold miners on a percentage basis, much stronger.

and I got to tell you the clue was the miners broke out while gold was sitting in that range I should have bought the living crap out of them. Why? Because we've told you forever that if the miners lead, it's usually very bullish for the metal. This is the first time the miners were leading in a long time. And the miners, the GDX on the breakout has gone from 55 bucks, this almost 75 bucks in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, some 8 weeks. I must tell you, I'm very P-Oed at myself and not jumping all over the minors.

And the junior miners, 72 to 96 in that same amount of time. So Goldstrong, and there's been worry that that may be meaningful and there's something wrong with it. we'll see in time. Yields up again today. So since the Fed lowered their short-term rates, bond yields, the real market is up again. And I'm not sure what that means. But I can tell you, I hope it does not continue. I don't think that's good news longer term. And especially with oil prices now ticking up a little bit. Market didn't care today. Oh, did I tell you that they came out with a GDP number better than expected? I got people email me.

Do we even trust the GDP number when President Trump fired the head of the BLS and put his own person in? I trust them. Up next. More in the markets. And whatever else. This is the one only investors said. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

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This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Hey, it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my Howie Do It Gaming Team take on Gilly to King and Wallow 267's million dollars gaming in an epic Global Gaming League video game showdown. Four rounds,

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With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Hey, thanks for being with us today. I'm just looking things over. All right. What else do we have for you?

You know what I saw at the end of the day today? Ford. With all their bad numbers, finish at a yearly high today. Off the highs today, but at a yearly high today. GM, by the way, Ford's earnings down 21%. The quarter before was down 71%. They've lost bazillions on electric vehicles. GM, yearly high?

No, right at the yearly high of last year. On their 17% drop in earnings. Hey, go figure. Go figure. I'll just let you know. GM and Ford. I don't think, you know, I think probably I bought Ford a few years back. I think I made some good money on it.

But typically I don't, typically I don't buy autos. I don't buy airlines. I think the last airline stock I bought was JetBlue back like in 2001 or 2002 or something like that. It's like when they first came public and they actually. actually was a great airline. Jack Blue's lost themselves. I think that the people who work for JetBlue right now are not happy there. You know how you know?

You can just, when you meet them, and it's not them, it's the culture. They need somebody else running the joint. When I go on an airline, I want Pete. Let me tell you, when I fly Virgin Atlantic to London, Boy, you feel like they want you there. Emirates, boy, I was the king for 14 hours. Delta treats me very well. Jetbloom, it's not that they're bad.

I just think they're unhappy there. And Southwest used to be much better also. You all hear that? And all you've got to do is just make people feel important. Like you want them there. and there's a little bit of not that going on. And there's a couple of discount airlines that, they say they're discount airlines,

but they're really not because you've got to pay for breathing on the flight also. They need work too. By the way, I do wonder how long spirit is going to stay a going concern. Just letting you know. That is not a prediction. I just wonder. And I think most wouldn't disagree with me on that, right? Oils on the weekend.

Three exchange traded funds, the OIH, the XLE, and the XOP, look like they're trying to come up the right side now pretty good. Everything's off the lows of the tariff crash in April. but it looks like, and of course, unfortunately, it is because oil prices are starting to tick up. We do not want oil prices ticking up from here. Would be less than thrilling, ladies and gentlemen. Worst case scenario, oil prices and interest rates ticking up. Worst case scenario.

And by the way, I am sending to the White House my thoughts on if they lower rates, too much on Fed funds potentially can cause the real yields to back up, which they've already done, since they lowered rates one time. Maybe they'll listen to me. I don't know, but I'm going to send them. I know. I have an idea how to send it to them. At least somebody there, and maybe they'll listen. Don't know. Hey, I am a radio guy, right? I think what's working on the market right now is you look, hey, the inflation's in the twos and the GDPs in the threes right now. Whether you believe or not the numbers, the market certainly does, and we'll just keep on top of it. Try to ride the trends. You know, the market really turned back in April,

and really, if you look at the major indices, just trending, you can just draw a line from 8 o'clock to 2 o'clock. that's what it looks like with a couple little moves down but very little and never breaking trend and that doesn't happen

often to see the S&P and the NASDAQ doing what it's been doing just trending from around 8 to 2 since April and again I think it's a combination of number one

the tariff crash would not have happened if not for the tariffs. So we would have never gotten that low. So if you take out the tariff crash, really the term would be from mid-May and much higher than the lows. But we'll take it.

Next, the crypto just ain't happening right now. Both are trading below the 50-day moving average. Both are quite weak. This is the Bitcoin Ethereum. I know there's others. And the micro strategy was up today, but looks like the same. south end of a northbound jackass and I just be careful again and as we said to you we'll worry

about the leverage on there and remember we just want you to remember in the last bare market micro strategy we went from by the way in case you don't know it went from 131 down to 13 last I looked that's 90% and last I looked nobody believes that can happen again and last I look I hear nobody talking about a potential bear market in crypto like it's never going to happen really really so right now it's under pressure if that changes we'll let you know I don't think it's full-blown bare market I call it a correction but in micro strategy it's a little bit worse than that in fact micro strategy topped out last November at 543 it's now 309 so that is

bare market. Hit back to 457 in July after rallying back up. 457 to 309, that's a bare market. What is that, 148 points on 457? That's a bare market. So hope you're listening on that. Because as we've told you, there's a lot of money being lost. It's some crazy stuff that's out there. And by the way, in the last three days, they have been getting the no-sale stuff. That OK-L-O that everybody's been touting, and I don't blame, the stock's had a big run. 144 to 110 in the last three days. By the way, at 110, it still has a $16 billion market cap. No sales.

And what do we tell you about the no-sales? If nothing changes and we go into a bare market, will crash these stocks just based on precedent of all bare markets previous. Companies that lose money crash and companies with no sales double crash. And if you don't believe me, go get some software that takes you back to all the bare markets and walk through a bunch of names that lose money or have no sales. In bull markets they become Teflon. bull markets they will go up to levels that nobody would even believe hey okay LO and again

we are not ripping on the company this is everything we do with stocks for all i know okay lo is gonna have monster sales and earnings down the road as of right now they have zero and then there are others like we had mentioned that are in nuclear that have been public I'm looking at one right now since the year 2000, 25 years, public, trading, and no sales. The high, I guess they did a bunch of reverse splits, was $4,000 in the year 2000. It's $21 today. I'm not mentioning the name. And again, it's not on the companies.

I'm not ripping them. I'm just letting you know the stocks. They're hot right now. When they get unhot, they crash. Up next. We'll take you to the weekend. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,

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Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Wester's Edge. With Gary Culpa.

All right, what else? Software stocks are starting to creep up again. They have been very weak. I'm just noticing starting to maybe rev up. I would love to see that. And I always watch Microsoft. If Microsoft can break above 519, let's call it 520, that would be potentially on the bullish side to get going again.

Microsoft is sitting right around the all important 50-day moving average. Really nothing to do. But I'm just noticing other software names like Crowdstrike and Z-scale. And what's that other one I saw today that looks close? V-E-E-V-V-V-V-Va systems, I believe that's medical software, and there are a few others that just got my interest as I was scanning. And again, if software starts to move again, that's going to be a big help to the market.

The semis have been Enfuego off of all this noise that I don't believe. There's no way anybody spending $100 billion on this, $200 billion on that, $600 billion. There's no way. I don't want to be around. when all of a sudden everybody figures out that it's not going to be those numbers, but right now the market's in belief, and guess what we believe in? In real time, we believe in the market. So just let you know finish pretty well today.

Started the week pretty crappy. Finished it pretty well. Like what I'm seeing. If the banks are not breaking down, the semiconductors are not breaking down, I think we're good to go for. right now. Whether or not we can just continue without any real corrections, I don't know, but you now have the Fed lowering rates, even though the 10 years up, and typically the Fed lowering rates, typically is not a bad thing. We'll leave it at that. Hey, you know what I got today? So I'm going to be

65 next week. But if you looked at me, I look 29. I'm pretty darn good shape. and getting in better shape every day. And I'm on Medicare now. You get to do it like a month before and stuff like that. And I'm saving money. I mean, my insurance has been going up like crazy over the years. Hey, thank you, Obama, who told us our premiums will go down once they do Obamacare. Another bull crap lie from a politician.

Anyway, I just want to let you know, here's the problem with government. In one number. You know what the problem with government is in one number? 123. Make it 121. You know what 121 is? I just got a book. Medicare NU.

26, the official U.S. government Medicare handbook. Why is there 121 pages that I got to read? or look up or figure out. And that's before there's another look like about another 50 pages of the special plans in northern. Well, I guess they consider me northern Florida, even though I'm middle. And it talks about preferred, I don't know. Anyway, so I took three minutes of my very valuable time today just to thumb through some of the pages of Medicare and U.

26. And let me just state for the record, if you put Stephen Hawking and Albert Einstein in the room to start reading this book, Medicare and U. 2026, they would be dumbfounded. That's the problem with the government. Why can't they make it easy? Seriously. The tax code between all the codes and taxes,

and the rules and regulations and the trials and back. There's like 70,000 pages total. I'd hate to be an accountant these days. Why is that? Why do I have to spend thousands of dollars on figuring out my taxes? Why did they make that? So it has to be they hate us.

Shouldn't like our taxes be, okay, you make this much, this is what you pay minus a charitable deduction, I think, is good. Right? You get a charitable deduction. Mortgage interest, I think that's good, right? What else should you have as deductions? That should be it. And of course, if you're a self-employed business deductions, that's fine.

That's it. But what did they do? I looked over my tax return. Again, Einstein and Stephen Hawking couldn't figure out what the hell's going on. Why did they do that, this government? 122 pages on Medicare. They hate us. Just so you know, President Kalpom, you would be paying your taxes from a postcard.

I would narrow down the taxes to three tax rates, maybe three or four write-offs, and you all go screw and you know what? I know I'd be doing a great job. The accountant lobby would want to destroy me. And then this Medicare thing, why couldn't they simplify this crap? Oh, that's right, Obamacare too. Anyway, just letting you know for all the peeps out there that are getting it to my age. Hey, have fun with this. And then there's part B and part D and why do we have parts?

Seriously. Why do we have parts? And then there's Medicare Advantage. And oh, there's a Part A also. I'm sorry. And I'm just reading all these things. Holy crap. Oh, and then there's the percentages, 20% of this, 15% of that, 8% of this, 12% of that.

E visits, not e-visits? Then they give you these definitions of what a durable medical equipment is. What the heck? Well, what? Stop! Anyway, because I knew nothing about Medicare until I got about 7,000 things in the mail. Boy, those people, they just know your age. They got us, right?

Started about five months ago, all of a sudden, one, two, three. I'm pretty sure I got about 500 pieces of mail from different types of companies on Medicare. It was amazing. They got us, kids. It's just like now, if I'm on one computer and I'm looking up cruises in Alaska, I'll go on my phone and out of nowhere I'm getting advertisements on cruises from Alaska. But Mark Zuckerberg was on Capitol saying, no, they don't follow us. Yeah, sure, right. Hey, y'all have a great weekend. Drive carefully. And to all the Portland

peeps wishing you all well. And when you get home to like we do quite simple, make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Go USA at the Riter Cup. Until Monday, peace out all good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K.com. That's Gary K. dot com guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now

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